BIRD - Tricolored blackbird

PRELIMINARY DRAFT - Subject to further review and revision
March 2012
DRECP Species Statistical Model: Tricolored Blackbird
Model
Species
Training
Occurrence
Points
Testing
Occurrence
Points
Training Gain
Training AUC
Test AUC
Binomial Test
of Omission PValue
Receiver
Operator
Characteristic
(ROC)
Jenks Natural
Break
Agency Draft Species Habitat Statistical (Maxent) Model for Tricolored blackbird
Model Statistical
BIRD – Tricolored blackbird
Evaluation
29
Fair
9
Fair
3.393
0.982
0.957
p < 0.0001
Very Good
Excellent
Very good
Highly significant
Good fit between
training and test data.
The Jenks natural break in the grid cell value probability of occurrence histogram is
0.178. Cell values below the natural break are removed and cell values above are
indentified as Maxent Modeled Habitat.
March 2012
!
DRECP Planning Area Boundary
Tricolored Blackbird Occurrence
Modeled Tricolored Blackbird Habitat
Maxent Model (MPO* > 0.178)
* Maxent Probability of Occurence
6
£
¤
Bishop
(
!
395
£
¤
!
!
(
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
§
¨
¦
15
!
Barstow
(
!
!
!
Needles
!
(
!
!
!
!
!!
!
§
¨
¦
40
!
!
!
!
!
Victorville
!
!
!!
§
¨
¦
210
101
£
¤
Glendale
(
!
(
!
(
!
§
¨
¦ §
¨
¦
95
£
¤
Twentynine Palms
San Bernardino
!
(
( Los Angeles
!
110
66
£
¤
(
!
Riverside
605
(
!
Long Beach
§
¨
¦
215
§
¨
¦
405
§
¨
¦!(
10
Coachella
§
¨
¦
5
Brawley
(
!
§
¨
¦
8
¨
¦
(§
!
§
¨
¦
15
San Diego
Z:\Projects\CEC\j6668_DRECP\MAPDOC\MAPS\BaselineBioReport\SpeciesModels
805
I
0
12.5
25
Miles
Sources: DRECP Species Occurrence Database (2011),
DRECP Land Cover (ICFI 2011), USGS (2010),
USDA Forest Service (2010), ESRI (2010)
March 2012
FIGURE SM(M)-B16
Draft Species Statistical Habitat Model Results for Tricolored Blackbird
Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) Baseline Biology Report