Paper 126

Department of Economic History
SEMINAR PAPER 126
Martin Dribe, Mats Olsson
and Patrick Svensson
“Famines in the Nordic countries,
AD 536 – 1875”
14.15, Wednesday 24 September, 2014
Alfa 3004
Date last revised: September 14, 2014
Famines in the Nordic countries,
AD 536 – 1875
Martin Dribe, Mats Olsson, and Patrick Svensson
Center for Economic Demography and Department of Economic History
Lund University, Sweden
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Preliminary draft, please do not quote
Paper for the 2014 Conference of the European Society of Historical Demography, Alghero
Italy, September 24-27, 2014.
Introduction
Famines of different magnitude have been reported in Nordic literature from the middle ages
until the late nineteenth century. Most reports are based on contemporary sources with
qualitative statements on the causes and effects of the fatal events. Except for some Finnish
famines in the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, and for a shorter period of early modern
Sweden, Nordic famines have not been studied in detail. In this chapter we follow the
definition of a famine as when “shortage of food or purchasing power […] leads directly to
excess mortality from starvation or hunger-induced diseases” (Ó Gráda 2009: 4) and focus on
the Nordic countries from the year 536 AD to 1875.
The first part is aimed at identifying the timing of famines in the Nordic countries
since the middle ages. This is done by combining qualitative famine reports from the literature
with price data and information on climate. The second part is aimed at studying the regional
famine pattern and its demographic characteristics in Sweden 1750–1875. The focus is here
on identifying periods where high food prices and excess mortality coincided at the county
level and to make a deeper study of age- and sex-specific mortality as well as the seasonal
patterns in years of mortality crisis. In this part we will use demographic data from the official
statistics available from 1749 onwards.
The Nordic countries are Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Iceland. Denmark
was the most populated country in Scandinavia from the middle ages to the sixteenth century.
During this period, Denmark also incorporated the provinces of Scania, Halland and Blekinge,
which were lost to Sweden in 1658, as well as Schleswig-Holstein, lost to Germany in 1864.
Denmark also ruled Norway from 1380/1536 until 1814. Sweden and Finland constituted a
united Kingdom until 1809, when Finland became an autonomous grand duchy under Russia.
During the seventeenth century Sweden conquered the above-mentioned south provinces from
Denmark as well as Jämtland and Härjedalen from Norway/Denmark. From 1814 to 1905
Sweden and Norway was in a union ruled by the Swedish king. Sweden also held provinces
outside the Nordic realm, not included in this analysis. Finally, Iceland was settled by
Norsemen in the ninth century but lost its independence to Norway in 1262 and was then
under Danish rule until the twentieth century. In our discussion we treat the five countries as
separate units but hold internal Nordic divisions of provinces as they were at the time. 1
Map 1 here
The Nordic countries are situated near the limit of where crop farming was possible.
Central Sweden and Norway are at the same latitude as Alaska and southern Greenland, but
the Gulf Stream has enabled cultivation in northern Scandinavia and even on Iceland.
Whereas precipitation was important for agriculture in continental Europe and Great Britain,
where drought or too wet weather negatively affected food production, temperature seems to
have been decisive for Northern Europe (Utterström 1955:5). There, agriculture’s sensitivity
to temperature shocks was not primarily due to low temperatures but to how long the winters
were, which governed the length of the growing season. In this respect also the temperature
and humidity in the spring and the short summer was of importance. The summer was short
but intense and the interconnections between weather and harvests were complicated in this
respect. When mapping bad harvest years in Scandinavia, hot and dry summers seems to have
been as frequent as cold and wet ones, where the latter dominated before the eighteenth
century, and the former dominated thereafter (Utterström 1955; Edvinsson, Leijonhufvud and
Söderberg 2009:119-126).
1
This means that, for example, Scania will be discussed with Denmark before 1658 and with Sweden thereafter,
etc.
1
Long-term climatic changes also affected the Nordic countries as they, both between
and within countries, are situated on different latitudes; in Sweden cultivation possibilities
were quite different between the southern parts and the most northern parts, and conditions
were of course very different in Denmark and Iceland. The so called medieval warm period,
stretching from around AD 1000 to the fifteenth/sixteenth century, meant that even in the
most northern parts of the Nordic countries farming grain was possible (and even in Iceland
and Greenland (Utterström 1955; Hybel and Poulsen 2007:60-64). In this period figs and
olives were also cultivated as far north as the Rhine valley. When average temperatures
declined, during what is often called the Little Ice Age, this was no longer possible, which
implied that Viking settlements on Greenland disappeared, and cereal production changed to
animal herding and fishing in Iceland. Thus, temperature and the length of the growing
season, varied both in the short term and in the long term, and in the northernmost part of
Europe this made agriculture, and thereby food provision, vulnerable and dictated population
settlement (e.g. Solantie 1988).
Famines up to 1580
The first known famine in the Nordic countries was until recently quite unknown.
Notwithstanding, it was probably the most profound and severe famine ever; it eradiated a
large part of the Scandinavian population and it has been suggested that it even changed
beliefs and the religion of those who survived (Gräslund 2007; Gräslund and Price 2012).
In 536 and 537 the ashes darkened the sky, and the summer never came. This major
geological event, which emanated from volcanic eruptions or impact of celestial objects, is
well documented in Chinese and European late antique sources, and it has also been
confirmed in dendrochronology and in ice core samples from both pools (Devroey and Jaubert
2011:10). The Nordic countries were probably hardest hit by the catastrophe, but since written
sources from this part of the world is lacking, the extent has not been registered (Gräslund
2007).
The preceding centuries can be characterized as the most expansive in Nordic
prehistory (Pedersen and Widgren 2011: 52–59). Just at the time of the disaster the settlement
and cultivation reached its largest extent, before the eighteenth century in many parts of
Sweden. But the expansion was abruptly broken in 536, with abandoned villages and farms –
the most dramatic and sudden changes in the cultural landscape of Sweden, southern Norway
and the Baltic lands ever since the introduction of agriculture 6,000 years ago. Northern
Norway seems to have fared better, perhaps because agriculture often was a supplement to
fishing. The same was true for Finland, where agriculture was often combined with cattle
rearing and foraging, and where no decline in settlements can be observed in the sixth and
seventh centuries. However, the crisis seems to have been devastating for areas in
contemporary Estonia and Latvia (Tvauri 2014: 39-40).
Until then, the religious beliefs in the Nordic countries appear to have been mainly
revolving around fertility and the sun. Now, when the sun had failed with the result that
perhaps half of the population died, a new and much darker religion was established, a
complex mythological world populated by violent Gods and Giants who fought against each
other, which was prevalent from then and into the upcoming Viking Age. In its myths about
Ragnarök, the earth’s destruction, the “fimbul winter” was replicated – the years when
summer never came (Gräslund and Price 2012). This event, hidden in the dim of prehistory,
does indeed indicate that agriculture in the Nordic countries was near the limit of where
farming was possible.
We know very little about famines during the Viking Age (793–1050), the Nordic
Middle Ages (1050–1520), or even their effects during early modern time until 1750. At least
for the early periods, designations of famines tend to correlate more with the preservation of
2
letters and other writings, often with a political bias, than with high food prices or poor
harvests. Even as late as during the reign of Gustav I of Sweden (1523–1560) the king was, to
his annoyance, held responsible by the peasants for years of distress (KLNM: 468).
Nevertheless, as the chronicles devoted much space to weather and harvests, indicating their
importance for medieval society, and since they are almost the only existing sources, they
have been used to assess whether common European famines also took place in the Nordic
countries (Hybel and Poulsen 2007:67-68). Hybel and Poulsen’s point of departure was that it
primarily was bad weather that affected larger areas and over a prolonged period, at least
back-to-back harvest failures, that resulted in famines. Combining the chronicles with other
sparse narratives, they concluded that severe food crises most likely occurred in Denmark in
1099-1101, 1196-1198, 1225-26 and probably also 1310, and 1315-17 (Hybel and Poulsen,
2007:75).
The dating of these famines, are however, in some cases doubtful. For example, the
1099-1101 famine is associated with King Olaf Hunger (1086–96) who came into power after
his brother was killed and was given his surname because Denmark was said to be haunted by
famines during his reign, according to Saxo Grammaticus he even sacrificed his own life to
end the torment of his land (Boisen 1985:book 12). So the case rests either upon that the
chronicles deliberately assigned the famines to his reign despite that they actually took place
after his death, to show what happened when a unrighteous King took power, or on a false
dating of the reign itself. Hybel and Poulsen base the famine of 1196-1198 on surrounding
areas being hit and on notations in the chronicles of a tremor in Denmark. Likewise, the 12251226 famines rests upon English grain exports to Denmark, despite bad harvests in England,
and on one notation saying “erra vastata est” which could be interpreted as: land is devastated
(Hybel and Poulsen 2007:74).
However, for the famine in the 1310s, there are sources both in Sweden and Denmark
indicating that this severe period also was present in the Nordic countries; a now lost
chronicle for the year 1315 was cited in a book printed in 1592 stating that “Pluvia et tonitrua
horrenda per totam aestatem; fames et pestis secutae, quibus tertia pars viventium absumta
est”, i.e. that rain and thunder were horrible throughout the whole of the summer; famine and
pestilence followed and a third of all living was struck (Utterström 1955:18). Furthermore,
tithes were not paid in parts of Sweden in 1316-1317 and 1319, cattle plague was mentioned
for Sweden in 1316 and from Danish sources drought seem to have taken place in 1310 and
very wet years in 1315-1317, although the chronicles disagree for these years (Myrdal,
1999:119, 174-76; Hybel and Poulsen, 2007:67-68, 75).
Since sources are rare, Hybel and Poulsen did not want to dismiss the possibility that
other famines found for northern Europe, 1005-06, 1043-45, 1124-26, 1144-1147 and 114951, also hit Denmark, though no records of this have been found. Ignoring the back-to back
criteria, also the year 1283 seems to have caused a severe famine, according to Danish
sources, whereas one chronicle from Sweden mentions 1291 as a famine year, caused by
several years of drought (Hybel and Poulsen, 2007:74; Myrdal, 1999:119).
For the Late Middle Ages, sources are even sparser but the chronicles that do exist
speak of years with very cold winters, creating ice passages between the islands of Denmark,
e.g. 1323, 1431, 1452 and 1546 (Hybel and Poulsen, 2007:76). Also wet years are recorded,
where 1347 and 1489 stand out. However, none of these years can in any other way be related
to famines, why Hybel and Poulsen ended up with no evidence of famines between 1315/17
and 1500 in Denmark. For Sweden, some years during the reign of Christopher of Bavaria
(1441-48) were hit by severe crop failures, resulting in his nick-name “King Bark” (Myrdal,
1999:193). However, also Swedish sources suggest that the period from the mid-fifteenth
century to the second half of the sixteenth century seem to have had better climate and no real
famines; from 1460 to 1546 the south-western part of the Baltic was never completely frozen,
3
and the vast amount of preserved letters from King Gustav 1 (1521-1560) speak of no severe
famines during this period (Utterström 1955:22-24).
Figure 1 here
Another way of approaching the medieval famines is to use prices. It has been possible
to construct a consumer price index for Sweden from 1290 onwards (Edvinsson and
Söderberg 2010). Figure 1 shows the annual deviations from a moving 25-year average up to
1579. There are some medieval years that stand out. None of these correspond with the worst
years in England, as revealed by grain prices, tithe series and manorial grain yields (compare
with Campbell 2009:30). Apparently, there is no trace of any price effects of the crises that hit
southern Scandinavia in the 1310s (Myrdal 2011:79) or the year 1448, that in the Karl
Chronicle is described as the worst famine year during the late Middle Ages. Although, in the
latter case there are some indications from tithe records that the harvest was bad in a parish 70
kilometers north of Stockholm and the year before 1448 exhibits 28 percent higher grain price
than the surrounding years (KLNM:467). The only Nordic high or late medieval year
mentioned in Cornelius Waldorf’s overview of famines of the world is 1442; 2 this and the
surrounding years had low or normal consumer prices. The most spectacular sixteenth century
periods, in terms of consumer price changes, are 1520–23 and 1571–74, but they are hardly
connected to any harvest failures or subsistence crises, but to monetary policies. In the first
period both Christian II of Denmark and Gustav I of Sweden issued so called klipping coins,
with a very low silver value, that immediately fueled inflation, and in the second period the
Swedish mark coin was debased (Edvinsson and Söderberg 2010: 425; 428). A similar
depreciation of the Danish mark coin took place at the same time (Aakjaer 1936: 255).
Famines in the early modern period
If it is hard to find evidence of major famines from around the 1320s to the second half of the
sixteenth century, perhaps with the exception of 1447-8 in Sweden, this is not the case for the
subsequent two centuries. The European crises of 1556 seem to have affected Denmark but
not Sweden (Utterström 1955:23), but it was the major famines of the years before and after
1600 and the 1690s, followed by a number of shorter crisis in the eighteenth century including
the early 1770s and 1780s that stood out in this period even if the effects differed across
countries.
Sources on local level in Denmark indicate that climate changed after around 1560-70.
Flooding and storms hit western Denmark regularly but increased in intensity after 1570.
From that year to 1661 the town of Ribe was hit no less than 43 times. The effects were
severe both for the town itself and for the uplands, where meadows and fields were destroyed.
The storms also swept in a lot of sand over the fields. After the flooding in 1593 Ribe was
exempted from taxes for two years (Degn 1981:410). Furthermore, local sources on climate,
harvests and market price scales (kapitelstakster) from Ribe mention 1593, 1594, 1597 and
1601 as bad harvests and 1596-1600 as years with high prices and regulations to stop grain
from leaving the province around the town (Degn 1981:414, 434). Population figures for the
town show a 6-7 per cent lower population in 1590-99 as compared to in 1580-89 (Degn
1981:439).
The famine of the late 1590s also hit south-eastern and western Sweden as well as
southern Norway (Utterström, 1955:26). In the first years of the seventeenth century it also
affected central and northern Sweden. A foretaste of the long period of bad years came 1591
in Norway and 1592-3 in western Denmark. After a couple of years with good harvests the
2
Briefly mentioned: “Sweden. A famine” (Waldorf 1878:440)
4
real difficulties started in mid-summer of 1595 with a torrential rain destroying the crops.
Then followed two very wet years with the latter also being very cold well into the summer.
Also 1601 seems to have been exceptionally bad. Two contemporary sources, one from southeastern Sweden and one from western Sweden, describes the weather and harvests as well as
the effects on people and animals during the 1590s crises (see Utterström, 1855:26-30). Both
sources agreed on the very serious situation with the harvest failures leading to people eating
“mash, chaff, bark, buds, nettles, leaves, hay, straw, peatmoss, nutshells, peastalks, etc” and
even so “an innumerable number of people died” (Utterström 1955:27). A church book from
Uppland, in central Sweden also corroborates these statements, but for the period 1601-1603,
indicating the spread of the crisis to central Sweden (Heckscher 1936:403). The prices in
figure 2 show that 1597 was a year of very high prices, whereas the statement by Heckscher
(1936:403) that 1601-1603 was a period of “very high rye prices” is not corroborated. Also in
Finland 1601 was described as a devastating year, and the famine of that year has been
regarded as one of the most severe of the early modern period, besides the late 1690s
(Johanson 1924:63; Holopainen and Helema 2009).
Figure 2 here
In the half century following the 1590s/1600-crisis, Sweden seems to have escaped
famines except for the years 1630 and 1633 (Heckscher 1936:403-404). In 1630, reports from
southern Sweden reveal that the bad harvest forced people to eat bark since food was lacking.
For the year 1633-1634 Sweden, Finland and the Swedish possessions in the Baltic countries
were affected by a famine resulting in increased mortality, as shown both by narratives and in
the low level of population in the annual poll-tax registers (Heckscher 1933; Heckscher
1936:404). 3 For Denmark, the previously mentioned sources from Ribe show that the early
1620s contained a number of bad harvest years in a row, 1621-1624, and 1648-1651 was
characterized by harvest failures and high prices (Degn 1981:414). Rye prices from Zealand
also corroborate both these periods as high price years, but also show that 1628-1630 had high
prices (Johansen 2002:14). According to Johansen, the bad harvest years of the early 1620s
did not manifest themselves in increased mortality whereas this was the case in 1628-1630
(Johansen 2002:24-25). The causes for this increase is, however, unclear; for Jutland the
invasion of German troops and records of typhus and dysentery might speak in favour of a
famine, whereas for the rest of the country, measles, smallpox, or scarlet fever epidemics
seem more likely causes of high mortality.
The high prices found around 1650 in Denmark, and the records of bad harvests, does
not concur with the mortality pattern across the country. Since excess mortality happened in
different years of the 1650s for different parishes, Johansen interprets the increased mortality
as mainly caused by epidemics, such as measles, rather than famine (Johansen 2002:27-28,
35-36). The same conclusion can be drawn from Norwegian sources, where the mortality
crisis 1650-1651 seems to primarily have hit children and young people and was caused by
epidemics (Mykland 1977: 150–60). In Sweden, on the contrary, 1650 and 1651 saw severe
crop failures resulting in very high prices in 1650 and 1652 as well as excess mortality in
several parts of the country; more than doubled crude death rates (CDR) in the east of Sweden
in 1650 and in 1651-1652 in the north, middle and east of the country (Heckscher 1936:405;
3
There are two counteracting mechanisms in the poll-tax registers as regards the real development of the
population during crisis years. First, since a part of the population, the poorest, was under-recorded in the
registers mortality effects during famines were probably larger than it seemed from these registers. Second, the
registers only recorded those who were subject to tax, why in crises years sometimes people were exempted
from tax, i.e. the registers to some degree reflected economic conditions in the society in themselves rather than
pure population effects (Heckscher 1933).
5
Larsson 2006:68, 90). All export of grain was banned and it is told that bakers in Stockholm
fought by the toll gates to acquire any grain at all. Imports of grain now became substantial
and necessary, above all from the Baltic states (Myrdal 1999:244).
The 1670s was also a difficult time in the Nordic countries. In 1675 famine struck
north and central Sweden, in 1676 inland and coastal Norway and Denmark, and 1677 again
Denmark. The main reasons were harvest failures accompanied by high prices; twenty per
cent higher than for surrounding years in Denmark and 25-30 per cent higher in Sweden. For
Norway the mortality data for the period is scarce, but for Sweden overall mortality more than
doubled whereas for Denmark mortality was around 37 percent higher than normal in 1676
and marginally lower the following year (Dyrvik et al. 1976; Larsson 2006:68, 90; Johansen
2002:61-62). The main causes of death in Denmark were typhus and dysentery, which both
clearly depended on nutrition (Livi-Bacci 1991:38).
The, in many aspects troublesome, seventeenth century ended with the 1690s crises
that hit Finland and parts of Sweden, but also the Baltic states. For Finland, mortality
estimates following the 1696-1697 harvest failures indicate that between a quarter and a third
of the population died, with the higher number being more plausible (Jutikkala 1955:53).
Harvests also failed in Sweden during these years, mainly in the northern and central parts of
the country, with high prices on food particularly in 1696 and 1697. According to Jutikkala,
this was probably not reflected in a significant increase in mortality for 1697 but for 1698
some regions had mortality rates as high as 90 or even 160 per 1000 (Jutikkala 1955:56).
However, according to subsequent research CDR more than doubled in north and central
Sweden in all three years, 1696-1698 (Larsson 2006:68, 90). Meanwhile, in the very south of
Sweden, Scania had a mediocre harvest which in fact resulted in a surplus that could be sent
to adjacent Swedish counties (Jutikkala 1955:56). Several hundred thousands barrels of grain
were also imported to Sweden from the Baltics during these years to alleviate the famine
(Myrdal 1999:244). This famine has also been identified for major parts of Norway, at least
for 1696. While the high mortality figures in 1695 was attributed to epidemics, the harvest in
September that year was described as “frozen away”, which contributed to the demographic
crisis the coming winter and spring (Dyrvik et al. 1976; Mykland 1977:150-160). In contrast,
there are no figures indicating either high prices or excess mortality in Denmark during this
period, besides the year 1700 (Johansen 2002:61). That year rye prices were 95 per cent
higher than normal, probably due to the harvest failure in 1699, and mortality was around 35
per cent higher than normal.
For eighteenth-century Sweden excess mortality (equivalent to a a doubling of normal
CDR) has been found in connection with reported harvest failures on four occasions between
1647 and 1775 (Larsson 2006: 68; 90); 1717 in the north and west of Sweden, 1740 in central
and 1743 in the northern part of, and in central, Sweden, and finally 1773 in central Sweden.
In the south and east of Sweden, 1710 and 1711 were also years of excess mortality, but in
these years the crop failure in 1709 interacted with war in 1710 and the spread of the plague
the same year. For the nineteenth century, severe crop failures were recorded for the years
1812, 1816, 1826, and 1841 but the effects of these seem to have varied regionally, and did
not result in national famines (Sommarin 1917:39-41). We will further investigate the national
and regional patterns in mortality and food prices after the mid-eighteenth century for Sweden
in the second part of this chapter, focusing on one of the most severe famines in early modern
Sweden, that of 1772/1773.
After the devastating famine of the final years of the seventeenth century, Finland
experienced famines also in the eighteenth century although less frequent and less severe than
in the preceding century. Improved climatic conditions in general and the lower risk of
coincident crop failures of rye and barley have been proposed as explanations for this change
(Holopainen and Helama 2009: 220-221). Together with less spatial synchrony in this
6
century, the large number of suggested years of famine, e.g. 26 years between 1749 and 1798,
probably reflected local crop failures rather than famines (Holopainen and Helema 2009: 222;
see also Jutikkala 1971 who argued that crop failures leading to excess mortality were rare
between 1722 and 1850). Nevertheless, the pattern found for Sweden was also to a large
extent valid for Finland, e.g. 1709-1710, and the 1770s.
Nineteenth-century Finland was exposed to four periods of elevated mortality, 18081809, 1832-1833, 1857-1858, and the famine of the late 1860s. The first of these, the 18081809 excess mortality, was mainly caused by warfare and spread of disease, although a bad
harvest of 1807 and the war in itself caused food shortage (Pitkänen 2002:76). The occupation
army also provided rescue by importing food from Russia to relieve needs, preventing a
hunger-induced famine. The remaining years of high mortality were all caused by back-toback harvest failures and hit large parts of Finland. In autumn 1832 and spring 1833, mortality
increased substantially, doubled or tripled, in affected areas, whereas the increase was
somewhat smaller in 1857 (Pitkänen 2002:71-73). Finally, during the 1860s, consecutive
harvest failures caused elevated mortality in both 1866 and 1867, but it was in 1868 that a
dramatic increase occurred, with a CDR of around 78 and in some regions over 115, resulting
in over 100,000 deaths (Kaukiainen 1984; Ó Gráda 2001; Pitkänen 2002:75).
For Denmark, Johansen (2002:61-63) lists all years 1665 to 1775 with excess
mortality over 30 per cent and discuss possible causes. In 1710 the disastrous harvest of 1709
caused both very high prices and excess mortality. The same happened in 1728-1730, 17401742 and 1763-1764. In the latter period, 1763-1764, famine was accompanied by an
influenza epidemic. For the year 1719, the cause of the high mortality level was not
mentioned in the sources (Johansen 2002:63). The last famine in Denmark took place 17861787 when bad harvests in 1785 and 1786, and subsequent high food prices, led to excess
mortality, with CDR of 31 and 28 per thousand, respectively (Johansen 2002:104). By
permitting grain imports, Copenhagen was the least affected part of Denmark during this final
famine.
Table 1 here
The research on mortality crises in Norway has been very much centred on its causes
in different parts of the country; whether due to starvation or epidemic diseases? The two
major Norwegian mortality crises in the eighteenth century – 1742 and 1771-1773 – was the
subject of three doctoral theses in the late 1970s. Astrid Løvlien investigated the crises in
1742, comparing the landlocked, eastern parts of the country with the western parts where
fishing played a substantial role for subsistence. She concluded that all factors point in the
direction of a deficit crises in the East. Conversely, epidemic diseases seemed to have played
the greatest role in the West. At the same time Løvlien questioned the relationship between
malnutrition and disease in this period. It was the same diseases that ravaged the East and the
West, seemingly independent of whether there was a food shortage or not (Løvlien 1977:125126; 129-132).
Sølvi Sogner found a demographic crisis 4 in 1773 in eastern Norway that was
preceded by three consecutive years of bad harvests. It was characterized by irregular grain
supply (this was a deficit area even in normal years, as most of Norway), high grain prices
(more than twice as high as normal), depression in many economic sectors, and with violent
epidemics in typhus and dysentery. The picture is complemented by Olav Aaras, who
confirmed Sogner’s results that there was a major famine in the eastern part of the country in
4
Sogner defines demographic crises as a significant raise (at least a doubling) in mortality that lasts for at least
three months. If fertility and nuptiality falls at the same time, and food prices are high, it is natural to regard it a
famine (Sogner 1976: 107).
7
1773. In the costal districts in the West there was also food shortage after a long winter in
1771, bad fishing and harvest failure in 1772, but people did not seem to have starved to death
(Aaraas 1978:107, 111). Sogner finally compared the 1773 crisis with the crisis in 1809,
which only hit the more urban part of eastern Norway. This demographic crisis seemed to
have been mainly due to reduced trade and grain imports because of the continental blockade
during the Napoleonic War, which led to high grain prices throughout Europe. Often, the
cause of death was also violent and nutrition-related epidemics (Sogner 1976:108).
In June 1783 Mount Laki in southwestern Iceland erupted. It was followed by the
Móðuharðindin, the Mist Hardship, a poisonous fog that hit most of the island. The grasslands
did not recover for three years which killed 80 percent of the livestock. The mortality in the
subsequent famine was extremely high, 26 percent of Iceland’s population died during the
two years 1784 and 1785 (Vasey 1991:343, 1996:371-372). It must be noted that in spite of
the rich fishing waters surrounding the island, the common Icelanders were in no position to
substitute farming with fishing in years of hardship. Fishing was tied to the control of the land
and no fishing villages or activities were allowed to develop independently of the land rent
system (Gunnarsson 1980: 14; 18).
Nordic famines c. 500-1875 – a summary
By defining famines as periods of excess mortality caused by shortage of food or low
purchasing power, we have not addressed the causes of famines but instead sought to list and
present the major famines occurring throughout the Nordic countries during the last
millennium. The sources available for this quest differ in nature and in content over time.
Before the seventeenth century, evidence of famines relies mostly on chronicles providing
narratives on lack of food, hunger and death. This, of course, makes evaluations of when
famines occurred and how severe they were highly uncertain. However, by using different
sources and combining these with weather statements, previous research has proposed a
number of such famines. From the seventeenth century onwards, the growing bureaucracies of
the Nordic kingdoms produced a more solid source material. By looking at tax records,
church register and population censuses, and combining them with harvest evaluations and
price data, we are better able to pinpoint years of famine as well as their effects on mortality.
In general, crop failures seem to have appeared quite regularly during the last
millennium, every 25 to 30 years or even more often than that during certain periods. The
seventeenth century appears to have been particularly bad, leading us to look also at long-term
climatic changes as important in the northern periphery. It is clear that not all crop failures
resulted in famines. The consequences could be highly severe, as in the case of the late
seventeenth-century famine in Finland, the late eighteenth-century famine in Sweden, and the
1783 famine in Iceland. Potentially also earlier famines made mortality increase to horrendous
levels. However, history is so far silent about this apart from some contemporary statements
as the one on the late sixteenth century famine in Sweden. Why some years of crop failures
and/or high prices did not result in famines remain unclear. However, it seems that most often
more than one year of crop failure was needed to result in a famine with excess mortality.
Moreover, over time markets became more integrated and institutions passing relief more
developed, leading to smaller effects of harvest failures, at least as long as they were regional.
The differences between areas that normally produced a grain surplus, such as most of
Denmark and Scania, and areas with production/consumption equilibrium or grain deficit in
normal years, were huge. In the latter cases, a main cause of mortality crisis could be bad
harvests, followed by outbreaks of hunger-related diseases such as typhus and dysentery. In
the former case, bad harvests could also result in higher death rates but the worst crisis years
were the results of external factors such as plague and war-time diseases (Gadd, Johansen,
Lindkvist 2011: 270, Larsson 2006: 121-128; Johansen 2002: 14, 45-46).
8
Table 2 here
As a summary, table 2 lists the years in which famine most likely occurred in the
Nordic countries between c. 500 and 1875. In reality there were major differences within
countries as well as in the magnitude of the effects in terms of mortality. During some years
whole countries and even the whole of the Nordic region seem to have been affected but in
most years regions fared differently. The differences in outcome might of course be related to
geographic factors, such as soil conditions, climate, location in terms of latitude, or economicpolitical reasons such as distance to the central power. The regional pattern is in itself
interesting also in our perception of how often an area in fact was hit by a famine.
Famine in Sweden 1750-1875: national and regional patterns
We now turn to a disaggregated analysis to see whether we can find anything that looks like
famine at the regional level in Sweden, using county-level data. At the time Sweden had 24
counties plus the city of Stockholm. The following analysis was based on the 24 counties
excluding the capital city because of problems of under-recording of mortality.
Data on mortality was derived from the Tabular commission, which published tables
of vital events and population size, for the period 1749-1859 (Sköld 2001), and from the
official statistics (BiSOS) for the period 1860-1875. County level data was published in
BiSOS while county-level summaries are not readily available for the period 1749-1859 from
the Tabular commission. 5 Instead parish-level data were aggregated to the county level using
data for homogenous geographical units (usually parishes or groups of parishes). The
aggregation was made based on a data file supplied by the Demographic Database, Umeå
University (DDB). The DDB has digitized all available parish-level tables from the Tabular
commission. There are, however, problems also in this material both with missing tables and
double counting, as well as with changes in geographical units (parishes or groups of
parishes) over time. The total number of deaths in the DDB database is for example 20
percent lower than the official summary for the entire country. These problems require great
caution when using the data for aggregative purposes and long-term studies. 6
In this study we used mortality rates (number of deaths divided by the mean
population in a year) based only on geographical units with full information for both deaths
and population at risk. As population counts were only available every three to five years,
while demographic events were available annually, we used the last census provided it was
not more than five years before the year of the deaths. Based on these data we aggregated
county-level crude death rates. To check the reliability of this method, Figure 3 shows the
aggregation of a national series using the same methodology compared to the official
national-level series. Overall the correspondence between the two series is very good,
indicating that the aggregation method is reliable. From the graph it is also clearly evident that
mortality at the national level increased substantially above normal during two periods,
namely 1772/73, with 1773 as the peak year, and 1808/08 with 1809 as the peak year.
Figure 3 here
5
During some periods there are summary tables at county level while during other periods there are instead
summary tables at the diocese level. In addition there are problems with both double counting and missing data
for some of the counties, making them less reliable, especially during the eighteenth century. See Lundh 2003: 9;
Castenbrandt 2012: 45-46.
6
Stockholm city appears to suffer from severe under-registration of deaths, which is one reason why we do not
include the capital city in our analysis. See Castenbrandt 2012: 51.
9
Data on food prices were based on the series published by Jörberg (1972) which gave
information for most, but not all, counties for the entire period under study. We used the price
of rye as an indicator as this was an important bread grain in the period, but results would
have been the same had we used a composite index instead. The prices data was converted
into a comparable unit (Kronor/hectoliter) for the whole period. As we were mainly interested
in the short-term fluctuations in prices, and mainly large positive deviations from normal
prices, we calculated the deviations from a Hodrick-Prescott smoothed trend (Hodrick and
Prescott 1997) of the log price (with a smoothing parameter of 6.25, see Ravn and Uhlig
(2002).
Figure 4 shows the deviations from normal prices (HP-trend) on a log scale. There are
a couple of years when rye prices increased about 30 percent or more above normal (log
deviations greater than 0.25). 1771 is one such year when the price deviation at the national
level was the largest during the entire period amounting to roughly a 35 percent price
increase. Thus it seems that the high mortality observed in 1772/73 at least partly must be
connected to high food prices, which most likely led to hunger and hunger-related diseases
causing excess mortality. This picture is also confirmed in the literature. In 1771 there were
widespread crop failures following a very dry summer and heavy rain during late summer and
fall. In 1772 the difficult conditions continued with crop failures in parts of middle and
southern Sweden (Utterström 1957: I, 435; see also Larsson 2006: Ch. 4; SCB 1999:50).
According to Castenbrandt (2012:68) about 50 percent of excess mortality in 1773 was due to
dysentery, a disease usually considered as highly nutrition dependent (see Livi-Bacci
1991:38; Larsson 2006:105-107), which further supports the link between the high prices of
food and the high mortality levels.
Figure 4 here
Turning to the other mortality peak in 1809, figure 4 shows elevated rye prices in
1808, but not to any extreme levels (around 22 percent above normal). In fact there are a
number of years with similar or higher levels of food prices when mortality did not increase to
high levels, which makes it less likely that the mortality peak in 1809 was primarily caused by
widespread hunger, even though we know it was a year with regional crop failures
(Utterström 1957: I, 435). Instead, excess mortality in these years has often been connected to
epidemic outbreaks of dysentery and typhus following the war with Russia and movements of
troops contributing to contagion (e.g. Castenbrandt 2012:31, 68).
Taken together we could identify one case of likely famine in Sweden in the period
after 1750, namely in 1772/73. In addition mortality increased sharply in 1808/09 mainly as a
result of epidemic outbreaks not primarily connected to high food prices and starvation, even
though similar causes of death were involved and food prices were above normal. Later, these
two periods of high mortality will be compared in terms of age-specific and seasonal
mortality patterns.
Turning to the regional pattern we looked at all counties for which we had data for
both prices and mortality and identified years when high mortality coincided with high prices.
We compared prices and mortality deviations from normal levels to detect periods when both
rye prices and mortality rates were particularly high. We used 0.3 log units as the threshold
and famine years were defined as years when mortality was at least 0.3 log units above
normal (roughly 35 percent), and the price of rye was at least 0.3 log units above normal the
same year, the year before or two years before, to allow for maximum influence of prices.
Thus food prices more than 35 percent above normal leading to crude death rates increasing
by at least 35 percent within a two-year period were considered famine years. This is a quite
10
generous definition of famine, and years that do not qualify according to this definition, can
safely be ruled out as famine years.
Using this definition we found a limited number of regional famines (see Table 3, all
data are available in appendix). 7 What stands out from the table is that 1772/73 was a famine
year in many regions, but not in all by far. Apart from this famine, there were regional
famines in 1758 in Kopparberg county, 1763 in Göteborg and Bohus county, 1808 in
Skaraborg, and in 1812 in Östergötland county. In addition, there was also a famine in
Jämtland in 1800 and 1809, and in Västerbotten in 1801, 1809, and 1868. 1773 was a year of
excess mortality in Jämtland but not in Västerbotten (due to lack of price data we do not know
the price levels in this period for these two counties). It is interesting to note that in 1809 there
was only famine in Jämtland and Västerbotten, supporting the previous conclusion that the
mortality peak in many places in this year was to a large extent the result of epidemic
outbreaks not mainly connected to high food prices and widespread hunger, even though the
dominant causes of death were partly the same as in the famine of 1772 (dysentery, and other
forms of diarrhea, see Castenbrandt 2012:ch 3).
Table 3 here
In 1758 mortality was high in many other counties as well, following crop failures in
several counties in 1756 and 1757 (Utterström 1957: II, appendix 1) leading to food prices
well above normal at the national level, but not as high as in 1771 (see figure 4). However, it
was only in Kopparberg county that conditions were severe enough to qualify as a famine
given our definition.
In 1763 the situation was similar following bad harvests in several parts of the country
including Bohuslän (part of Göteborg and Bohus county) (Utterström 1957: II, appendix 1).
Several counties besides Göteborg and Bohus also saw mortality rates well above normal, for
example Värmland, Örebro, Kopparberg, Gävleborg, and Kalmar who all showed crude death
rates about 30 percent above normal. Nonetheless, it was only Göteborg and Bohus county
that showed a combination of rye price and mortality at levels 35 percent above normal.
Finally in 1811 and 1812 crops failed in many parts of the country (Utterström 1957:
II, appendix 1), including Östergötland, but it was only here that mortality increased to famine
levels. In some other counties mortality was also elevated in this year, e.g. in the surrounding
Södermanland and Jönköping counties with levels around 17-20 percent above normal. There
are also contemporary accounts supporting the dire times in Östergötland in 1812 (Gullberg
1968:98).
A number of counties were also largely unaffected by the famine of 1773 which
allowed us to compare the mortality development in a famine period between affected and
non-affected regions. In addition we also compared the more detailed mortality pattern in a
period with high mortality, not primarily caused by high food prices: 1808/09. Based on the
CDR, we distinguish between counties with high mortality (>0.3 log units above the HPtrend) and medium/low mortality and compared the age-specific mortality between the two
groups in the four different years. The results are displayed in Table 4.
Table 4 here
7
We have based the identification of famines on counties for which we have data for most of the period in
questions. Three counties (Norrbotten, Blekinge and Gotland) are not included at all because of lack of price data
for long periods. Västerbotten and Jömtland can only be studied after 1796, and for Stockholm and Skaraborg we
are missing odd years of price data, which is why they are not included in the appendix-
11
As evident in panel A, mortality was higher in all age groups in high-mortality
counties in all years. Overall mortality was 46 to 86 percent higher in high-mortality counties
compared to low-mortality ones. The biggest difference we find for children where mortality
in affected counties was 88-162 percent higher than in non-affected counties, while the
corresponding spans were 6-20 percent for infants, 52-93 percent for working age adults, and
32-79 percent for the elderly. Looking at proportions of total deaths in each age group (panel
B) confirms that children were most affected of all age groups. High-mortality counties had
34-63 percent higher proportions child deaths than low-mortality counties, while proportions
of infant deaths were considerably lower in the high-mortality counties than in the lowmortality ones. In the famine year of 1773 the difference between affected and non-affected
counties was considerably larger than in 1772, while the same difference could not be seen
when comparing 1808 and 1809. This age pattern in mortality during crises is consistent with
the typical age pattern of mortality in dysentery and other kinds of diarrhea (see Castenbrandt
2012:76-79). 8
Table 5 shows a similar comparison regarding the seasonal pattern in mortality. In
1772 high-mortality counties showed a higher proportion of deaths in May, June and July
compared to low mortality counties and instead lower proportions in the winter months. In the
famine year of 1773 the proportion of deaths in July, August and September were the highest
in the high-mortality counties relative to the low-mortality counties. This is also consistent
with an importance of dysentery for the excess mortality, as it often came in the summer and
faded away during late fall (see Castenbrandt 2012:76-79; Larsson 2006:105-111). In 1808
and 1809 the difference in seasonality between high- and low-mortality counties was even
larger, but the pattern was again expected given the importance of dysentery and typhoid
fever related to epidemic outbreaks in the war camps (see Larsson 2006: 105-111).
Table 5 here
The age-specific and seasonal patterns are thus quite similar in high-mortality counties
in both periods with a dominance of child deaths during late summer and early autumn. This
similarity can be explained by similar causes of death being responsible for excess mortality
regardless of the underlying cause, famine or war (possible in combination with undernutrition). Taken together we have only been able to identify one clear and widespread famine
in Sweden in the period after 1750, namely 1773. In addition there are three more regional
famines in years when larger parts of the country was also affected by crop failures, high
prices and increasing mortality, but not to levels here considered as famine. The low
frequency of famines, despite frequent crop failures, in this period reflects a high degree of
market integration in Sweden as well as in other parts of Europe (see, e.g., Bengtsson and
Jörberg 1975; Persson 1999), which implied that crop failures in some regions were relieved
through trade with other regions, and only in rare instances when crops failed in large parts of
the country at the same time did it cause famine.
Conclusion
To chart the occurrence of famine in history without hard evidence about mortality rates and
food prices or output is of course a foolish task. In this chapter we have nevertheless aimed to
do just this, relying mainly on qualitative accounts based on contemporary reports and general
historical writings. From the middle of the eighteenth century we are on firmer ground thanks
to the emergence of reliable population statistics and price data.
8
The pattern appears to have been similar to the one described by Sogner for Norway, as previously discussed.
12
Our survey has indicated that widespread famine was always a rare occurrence in the
Nordic countries, despite frequent crop failures. Great famines of nationwide character, which
we may regard as confirmed were: 536 in virtually all parts of the Nordic countries that were
dependent on agriculture, 1696 in Finland, 1773 in parts of Sweden, eastern Norway and
Finland, and Iceland in 1783. There were also a number of medieval and early modern years
with contemporary reports of famine, but whose extent and depth we have not been able to
substantiate. However, we have been able to establish co-variations between famine reports
and high consumer prices in Sweden for the following years: 1597, 1633-1634, 1650-1652,
1697-1698 and 1717. To discover whether the national death rates concealed deeper crises at
the disaggregated level, we turned to a regional analysis going as far back as the data allowed.
The results showed that 1773 probably was the last major famine in Sweden, although far
from the whole county was affected. We recognized regional examples of increased mortality
associated with high food prices, which also coincided with contemporary data on starvation
and excess mortality. Besides the 1773 famine, 1758, 1763, 1800, 1809, 1812 and 1868 were
the years when a regional famine could be detected, and in most cases only one county was
seriously affected, although both mortality and prices were elevated in other counties as well
but not to famine levels.
Looking at the age-specific mortality and seasonality pattern in two years of mortality
crisis in Sweden, one hunger induced and one more due to epidemic outbreaks, we could
show a highly similar pattern. This similarity could be explained by similar causes of death
being involved: dysentery and typhus. All age groups were affected during the crisis, but
children over the age of one were hardest hit. Mortality was highest during the summer and
early fall as epidemics spread rapidly through water and food.
Large parts of the Nordic countries are close to the climatological edge where
agriculture is possible, with cold winters and frost in the ground until March and April. How
has this affected the frequency and intensity of famines? In normal case, not that much,
because population density in the long run tended to adapt to the carrying capacity of the land.
The densely populated plains of Denmark and southern Sweden had almost continental
climatological conditions while areas less devoted to agriculture further north had
considerably sparser populations. Their survival strategies were more diversified, with
fishing, gathering, and nomadic grazing as supplementary activities.
But on occasions, when sudden and severe external shocks occurred, the Nordic
countries were harder hit than regions on more southern latitudes. The clearest example is
perhaps 536, when a long period of agricultural expansion was interrupted by extreme and
prolonged weather deterioration, which led to an estimated half of the Scandinavian
population disappearing over the course of a few years. A local variant of this was the
Icelandic tragedy in 1783, also with extreme death rates, but then due to the effects of
volcanic activity on the island itself.
In most other years, and especially in the period after 1750, the market worked
reasonably well in evening the supply of grain in different parts of the country, which lowered
the impact of regional crop failures. A diversified agriculture also helped in minimizing risks.
At the same time it should be stressed that mortality remained sensitive to short-term
variations in grain prices or harvest outcomes well into the nineteenth century (e.g. Bengtsson
and Ohlsson 1985; Bengtsson 2004, Bengtsson and Dribe 2005, Dribe, Olsson and Svensson
2012, 2014), and the same was true for fertility (Bengtsson and Dribe 2006, 2010). Thus,
while people clearly were vulnerable to economic fluctuations, conditions rarely deteriorated
to famine levels, which probably can be explained as a combination of a reasonably wellfunctioning market, a diversified economy, a population density in line with resources
availability and absence of serious political or war-related conditions conducive to famine.
13
References
Aakjaer, Svend (1936). Maal, vaegt og taxter i Danmark. In Nordisk Kultur 30: Mått och vikt,
Stockholm: Albert Bonniers förlag, p. 255
Aaraas, Olav (1978). Befolkningskrisa i Norge 1770-74: sult eller sykdom? Hovudoppgåve,
Universitetet i Bergen.
Bengtsson, T. (2004). Living standards and economic stress. In Bengtsson, T. et al. Life
Under Pressure. Mortality and Living Standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900.
Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Bengtsson, T. and Dribe, M. (2005). New evidence on the standard of living in Sweden
during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries: Long-term development of the
demographic response to short-term economic stress. In Allen, R. C., Bengtsson, T.
and Dribe, M. (eds.) Living Standards in the Past. New Perspectives on Well-Being
in Asia and Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bengtsson, T. and Dribe, M. (2006). Deliberate control in a natural fertility population:
Southern Sweden, 1766-1894. Demography 43:727-746.
Bengtsson, T. and Dribe, M. (2010). Economic stress and reproductive responses, in N. O.
Tsuya, et al. (eds.) Prudence and Pressure. Reproduction and Human Agency in
Europe and Asia, 1700-1900. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Bengtsson, T. and Ohlsson, R. (1985). Age-specific mortality and short-term changes in the
standard of living: Sweden, 1751-1859. European Journal of Population 1: 309-326.
Bengtsson, T. and Jörberg, L. (1975). Market integration in Sweden during the 18th and 19th
centuries spectral analysis of grain prices. Economy and History 18: 93-106.
Boisen, M. (1985). Saxos Danmarks krönike 2. Copenhagen: Peter Asschenfeldt’s forlag.
Campbell, B. M. S. (2009). Four famines and a pestilence: harvest, price, and wage variations
in England, 13th to 19th centuries. In Liljewall, B, et al (eds.) Agrarhistoria på många
sätt. 28 studier om människan och jorden. Stockholm: Kungl. Skogs och
lantbruksakademien, pp. 23–56.
Castenbrandt, H. (2012). Rödsot i Sverige 1750-1900. En sjukdoms demografiska och
medicinska historia. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Historical Studies, University
of Gothenburg.
Degn, Ole (1981). Rig og fattig i Ribe. Aarhus: Universitetsforlaget.
Devroey, J.-P and Jaubert, A.N. (2011). Family, income and labour around the North Sea,
500–1000. In Vanhaute, E. et al. (eds.), Making a Living. Family, Income and
Labour. Rural Economy and Society in North-western Europe, 500–2000, Turnhout:
Brepols, pp. 5-44.
Dribe, M., Olsson, M. and Svensson, P. (2012). Was the manorial system an efficient
insurance institution? Economic stress and demographic response in Sweden, 17491859. European Review of Economic History 16:292-310.
Dribe, M., Olsson, M. and Svensson, P. (2014). The agricultural revolution and the conditions
of the rural poor: Sweden 1750-1860. Manuscript.
Dyrvik S., Mykland K., and Oldervoll J. (1976). The demographic crises in Norway in the
17th and 18th centuries: some data and interpretations. Bergen: Universitetsforlaget.
Edvinsson, R., Leijonhufvud and Söderberg, J. (2009), Väder, skördar och priser i Sverige. In
Liljewall, B., et al. (eds.), Agrarhistoria på många sätt. 28 studier om människan och
jorden. Stockholm: Kungl. Skogs och lantbruksakademien, pp. 115–136.
Edvinsson, R. and Söderberg, J. (2010). The evolution of Swedish consumer prices 1290–
2008. In Exchange rates, prices, and wages, 1277–2008. Stockholm: Sveriges
Riksbank/Ekerlids förlag, pp. 412–452
14
Gadd, C.-J., Johansen, H.C. & Lindkvist, T. (2011). Scandinavia 1000–1750. In Vanhaute, E.
et al. (eds.), Making a Living. Family, Income and Labour. Rural Economy and
Society in North-western Europe, 500–2000. Turnhout: Brepols, pp. 265–291.
Gräslund, Bo (2007). Fimbulvintern, Ragnarök och klimatkrisen år 536-537 e. Kr. In Saga
och sed. Kungl. Gustav Adolfs akademiens årsbok. Annales Academiae Regiae
Gustavi Adolphi, Uppsala : Kungl. Gustav Adolfs akademien, pp. 93-123
Gräslund, B. and Price, N. (2012). Twilight of the gods? The ‘dust veil event’ of AD 536 in
critical perspective. Antiquity 86: 428-443.
Gullberg, E. (1968). Norrköpings kommunalstyrelse 1719-1862. Norrköpings historia 8.
Stockholm: P. A. Norstedts & söner.
Gunnarsson, Gísli (1980). A study of causal relations in climate and history. With an
emphasis on the Icelandic experience: Meddelande från Ekonomisk-historiska
institutionen 17. Lund University.
Heckscher, Eli F. (1933). En mätare på svenska folkets välståndsutveckling. Den
mantalsskrivna befolkningen 1634-1820. Historisk tidskrift 365-402
Heckscher, Eli F. (1936). Sveriges ekonomiska historia från Gustav Vasa. Första delen, andra
boken. Stockholm: Albers Bonniers förlag.
Hodrick, R. J. and Prescott, E. C. (1997). Post-war U.S. business cycles: an empirical
investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29(1):1–16.
Holopainen, J. and Helama, S. (YEAR). Little ice age farming in Finland: preindustrial
agriculture on the edge of the grim reaper’s scythe. Human Ecology 37(2): 213-225.
Hybel, Nils and Poulsen, Bjørn (2007). The Danish Resources c. 1000-1500. Brill.
Johansen, H. C. (2002). Danish Population History. 1600-1939. Odense: University Press of
Southern Denmark.
Johanson, V. F. (1924). Finlands agrarpolitiska historia, En skildring av det finländska
lantbrukets ekonomiska betingelser, I, från 1600-talet till år 1870. Helsingfors:
Lantbruksvetenskapliga samfundet.
Jutikkala, Eino (1955). The great Finnish famine in 1696-97. Scandinavian Economic History
Review 3(1): 48-63.
Jutikkala, Eino (1971). The structure of mortality during catastrophic years in a pre-industrial
society. Population Studies 25(2): 283-285.
Larsson, D. (2006). Den dolda transitionen. Om ett demografiskt brytningsskede i det tidiga
1700-talets Sverige. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of History, University of
Gothenburg.
Livi-Bacci, Massimo (1991). Population and Nutrition. An Essay on European Demographic
History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lundh, C. (2003). Den regionala befolkningsstatistiken i Tabellverket – en databeskrivning.
Lund Papers in Economic History 91. Lund University: Department of Economic
History.
Løvlien, Astrid (1977). Dødelighetskrisa på 1740-tallet: en sammenligning mellom to norske
landsdeler, Hovudoppgåve, Universitetet i Bergen.
Kaukiainen, Y. (1984). Harvest fluctuations and mortality in agrarian Finland (1810-1870). In
Bengtsson, T., Fridlizius, G. and Ohlsson, R. (eds.) Pre-Industrial Population
Change. The Mortality Decline and Short-Term Population Movements, Stockholm:
Almqvist & Wiksell International, pp. 235-254.
Kulturhistoriskt lexikon för Nordisk medeltid (KLNM).
Mykland, Knut (1977). Gjennom nødsår og krig: 1648-1720, Norges historie, bd 7. Oslo:
Cappelen.
Myrdal, Janken (1999). Jordbruket under feodalismen 1000-1700. Stockholm: Natur och
Kultur.
15
Myrdal, Janken (2011). Farming and feudalism. In Myrdal, J., and Morell, M. (eds.) The
Agrarian History of Sweden. Lund: Nordic Academic Press, pp. 72-117.
Ó Gráda, C. (2001). Markets and famines: Evidence form nineteenth-century Finland.
Economic Development and Cultural Change 49(3): 575-590.
Pedersen, Ellen Anne and Widgren, Mats (2011). Agriculture in Sweden. 800 BC–AD 100. In
Myrdal, J., and Morell, M. (eds.) The Agrarian History of Sweden. Lund: Nordic
Academic Press, pp. 46–71.
Persson, K. G. (1999). Grain Markets in Europe 1500-1900. Integration and Deregulation.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Pitkänen, K. J. (2002). Famine mortality in nineteenth-century Finland: Is there a sex bias? In
Dyson, T. and Ó Gráda, C. (eds.) Famine Demography. Perspectives from the Past
and Present. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 65-92.
Ravn, M. O. and Uhlig, H. (2002). On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency
of observations. Review of Economics and Statistics 84(2): 371-376.
Sköld, P. (2001). Kunskap och kontroll. Den svenska befolkningsstatistikens historia. Umeå:
Demographic Database, Umeå University.
Sogner, Sølvi (1976). Folkevekst og flytting: en historisk-demografisk studie i 1700-årenes
Øst-Norge, Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.
Solantie, R. (1988). Climatic conditions for the cultivation of rye with reference to the history
of settlement in Finland. Fennoscandia archaelogica 5: 3-20.
Sommarin, Emil (1917). Det skånska jordbrukets ekonomiska utveckling 1801 – 1914. Del 1.
Lund: Berlingska boktryckeriet.
Statistics Sweden 1999. Befolkningsutvecklingen under 250 år. Historisk statistik för Sverige.
Stockholm: SCB.
Tvauri, Andres (2014). The impact of the climate catastrophe of 536–537 AD in Estonia and
neighbouring areas. Estonian Journal of Archaeology 18(1): 30-56.
Utterström, G. (1955). Climatic fluctuations and population problems in early modern history.
Scandinavian Economic History Review 3(1): 3-47.
Utterström, G. (1957). Jordbrukets arbetare. Stockholm: Tidens förlag.
Vasey, Daniel E. (1996). Population regulation, ecology, and political economy in
preindustrial Iceland. American Ethnologist 23(2): 366-392.
Vasey, Daniel E. (1991). Population,agriculture, and famine. Iceland, 1784–1785. Human
Ecology 19(3): 323-350.
Walford, Cornelius (1878). The famines of the world: past and present. Journal of the
Statistical Society of London 41(3): 433-535.
16
Map 1. The Nordic countries.
Map: Finn Hedefalk, Lund University
17
Figure 1. Swedish consumer prices 1302–1579, annual deviations from trend (25-year moving
average)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1302
1312
1322
1332
1342
1352
1362
1372
1382
1392
1402
1412
1422
1432
1442
1452
1462
1472
1482
1492
1502
1512
1522
1532
1542
1552
1562
1572
0.00
Source: Edvinsson and Söderberg 2010.
18
Figure 2. Swedish consumer prices 1580–1750, annual deviations from trend (25-year moving
average)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1750
1740
1730
1720
1710
1700
1690
1680
1670
1660
1650
1640
1630
1620
1610
1600
1590
1580
0.00
Source: Edvinsson and Söderberg 2010.
19
Figure 3. Comparison of the crude death rate according to official records (1751-1875) and estimated
(1751-1875). Deaths per thousand population.
60
1773
50
40
1809
30
20
10
0
Official
Estimate
Source: Tabular commission, DDB Umeå University, own calculations (Estimate). SCB 1999: table
2.1 (Official).
20
Figure 4. Deviations from normal in rye prices in Sweden 1750-1875. Logarithmic values.
0.4
0.3
1762
1771
1757
0.2
1808
1812
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
Source: Jörberg 1972, own calculations.
Note: Deviations from Hodrick-Prescott trend of log values with a smoothing parameter of 6.25.
National price series is an unweighted mean of county prices.
21
Table 1. Characteristics of years with an especially high mortality probably connected to famine,
Denmark 1665-1775.
Year
1676
1677
1700
1710
1719
1728
1729
1730
1740
1741
1742
1763
1764
GMR
36.9
35.1
34.9
42.6
29.5
33.2
37.6
37.3
34.3
34.8
32.6
42.5
34.5
Rye prices
1.19
1.18
1.91
2.40
1.42
1.38
1.00
1.54
0.94
1.53
1.45
1.30
1.23
Source: The table is an adjusted version of table 3.6 in Johansen 2002:61.
Note: GMR equals mortality for the specific year in relation to five previous and five succeeding years. Rye
prices equals the price for the specific year divided by the average rye prices for the four previous and four
succeeding years.
22
Table 2. Famine years in the Nordic countries 536-1900
Years
536-537
1099-1101
1196-1198
1225-1226
1310s
1447-1448
1556
1590s-1603
1633-1634
1650-1652
1675-1677
1696-1700
Countries affected
All countries
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark
Denmark, Sweden
Sweden
Denmark
Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway
Sweden
Sweden
Denmark, Sweden, Norway
Denmark (1700), Sweden, Finland,
Norway
1709-1710
Denmark, Sweden, Finland
1717
Sweden
1728-1730
Denmark
1740-1743
Denmark, Sweden, Norway
1771-1773
Sweden, Finland, eastern Norway
1783-1787
Denmark, Iceland
1832-1833
Finland
1857-1858
Finland
1866-1868
Large parts of Finland, some counties in
northern Sweden
Sources: See text and figure 1 and 2.
Price indication
–
–
–
–
Weak
Weak
No
Yes, 1597
Yes
Yes
Weak
Yes, 1697, 1698
Weak
Yes
No
No
Yes
?
?
?
Not in Sweden
23
Table 3. Famine years in different counties in Sweden, 1750-1875.
Stockholma
Uppsala
Södermanland
Östergötland
Jönköping
Kronoberg
Kalmar
Kristianstad
Malmöhus
Halland
Göteborg & Bohus
Skaraborga
Älvsborg
Värmland
Örebro
Västmanland
Kopparberg
Gävleborg
Västernorrland
1771/1773
1771/1773
1771/1773
1812/1812
1771/1772
1762/1763
1771/1773
1772/1772,1773
1772/1773
1771/1773
1756/1758
1771,1772/1773
1806/1808
1771, 1772/1773
Jämtlandb
?/1773
1800/1801
1808/1809
b
Västerbotten
1800/1800
1808/1809
1867/1868
Note: Data available in appendix.
a. Odd years of prices are missing, why data for these counties are not in appendix.
b. No continuous price data before 1796, and thus the existence of famines as measured here cannot be
established before this date.
24
Table 4. Mortality comparisons. Swedish counties 1772/73 and 1808/09.
A. Mortality rates (per thousand)
Infants
Children (1-14)
Adults (25-49)
Old age (60-84)
Total
N (counties)
(1)
High
339
39
26
133
47
1772
(2)
Med/low
283
21
16
101
32
5
19
(3)
(1)/(2)
1.20
1.88
1.57
1.32
1.46
(4)
High
367
68
30
151
60
1773
(5)
Med/low
300
26
15
85
33
15
9
(4)
High
13
34
16
20
1773
(5)
Med/low
23
25
15
21
(6)
(4)/(5)
1.22
2.62
1.93
1.79
1.86
(7)
High
252
44
23
130
46
1808
(8)
Med/low
237
17
14
88
29
4
20
(7)
High
15
30
16
21
1808
(8)
Med/low
23
18
16
27
(9)
(7)/(8)
1.06
2.54
1.63
1.48
1.61
(10)
High
239
48
28
133
51
7
1809
(11)
(12)
Med/low (10)/(11)
216
1.11
24
2.05
19
1.52
98
1.36
33
1.52
17
B. Proportion of total deaths (per cent)
Infants
Children (1-14)
Adults (25-49)
Old age (60-84)
(1)
High
17
26
17
22
1772
(2)
Med/low
21
20
16
26
(3)
(1)/(2)
0.82
1.34
1.05
0.86
(6)
(4)/(5)
0.57
1.39
1.05
0.96
(9)
(7)/(8)
0.66
1.63
1.01
0.80
(10)
High
12
29
18
23
1809
(11)
(12)
Med/low (10)/(11)
18
0.70
21
1.36
18
1.00
24
0.92
N (counties)
5
19
15
9
4
20
7
17
Note: High: High mortality. County-level mortality rate> 0.3 log points above HP-trend. Med/Low: Medium or low mortality. County-level mortality rates
less than 0.3 log points above HP-trend.
Source: Tabular commission, Demographic Database, Umeå University
25
Table 5. Proportion of deaths by month. Swedish counties 1772/73 and 1808/09 (all ages) (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
(1)
High
5.6
6.2
9.1
9.8
13.7
9.6
7.9
8.5
7.9
8.3
7.2
6.0
100.0
1772
(2)
Med/low
6.7
8.0
9.9
9.0
10.3
8.3
7.3
7.9
7.5
7.3
8.8
9.0
100.0
(3)
(1)/(2)
0.83
0.77
0.93
1.09
1.33
1.15
1.09
1.08
1.06
1.14
0.82
0.67
(4)
High
7.5
6.7
7.3
8.3
8.7
7.9
9.4
13.1
13.8
7.9
4.6
4.8
100.0
1773
(5)
Med/low
10.2
9.4
8.8
9.1
10.4
6.6
6.4
9.6
9.8
8.5
5.4
5.9
100.0
(6)
(4)/(5)
0.74
0.71
0.83
0.91
0.84
1.19
1.48
1.36
1.41
0.93
0.85
0.81
Deaths
4865
11346
13008
6408
Counties
5
19
15
9
Source: Tabular commission, Demographic Database, Umeå University.
1808
(7)
(8)
High Med/low
4.6
7.6
4.5
7.3
6.1
8.8
5.4
9.5
4.9
9.1
4.1
7.0
3.9
6.1
11.7
6.0
27.2
7.9
15.2
9.8
6.3
9.1
6.0
11.7
100.0
100.0
5062
4
17800
20
(9)
(7)/(8)
0.61
0.62
0.69
0.56
0.54
0.59
0.64
1.95
3.44
1.55
0.69
0.52
(10)
High
9.2
8.9
8.3
9.3
7.0
7.4
5.9
8.6
16.9
8.9
5.0
4.6
100.0
8215
7
1809
(11)
(12)
Med/low (10)/(11)
11.3
0.81
9.4
0.94
10.4
0.80
12.4
0.75
9.6
0.73
7.4
1.00
5.9
0.99
5.3
1.63
6.9
2.45
7.3
1.21
6.7
0.74
7.3
0.64
100.0
17845
17
26
Appendix. CDR and rye price deviations from Hodrick-Prescott trend (log values). Swedish counties 1772/73 and 1808/09.
Uppsala
Södermanland
Östergötland
Jönköping
Kronoberg
Kalmar
Kristianstad
Malmöhus
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
1750
-0.06
-0.09
-0.05
-0.13
-0.05
-0.02
0.01
-0.04
-0.12
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
0.02
0.11
-0.02
1751
-0.08
0.16
-0.10
0.15
-0.01
0.06
-0.07
0.02
0.05
0.06
-0.14
0.07
0.10
0.04
0.07
0.11
1752
0.11
0.05
-0.13
0.05
0.02
-0.03
0.19
0.06
-0.07
0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.10
-0.04
1753
-0.05
-0.20
0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.07
-0.11
-0.03
-0.03
-0.08
0.17
-0.09
-0.19
-0.16
-0.19
-0.21
1754
-0.08
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.16
-0.02
-0.07
-0.12
0.11
0.00
-0.06
-0.15
-0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.03
1755
-0.12
-0.09
-0.01
-0.15
0.02
-0.10
0.05
-0.04
0.16
-0.01
-0.13
0.03
0.29
0.06
0.20
0.06
1756
0.15
0.27
0.09
0.10
-0.11
0.25
-0.05
0.20
-0.05
0.08
-0.04
0.20
0.03
0.06
0.11
0.08
1757
-0.01
0.18
0.02
0.27
0.29
0.20
0.13
0.16
-0.12
0.14
0.22
0.29
-0.15
0.28
-0.11
0.32
1758
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.26
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.19
-0.03
0.01
0.13
0.20
0.06
0.09
0.18
1759
-0.01
-0.27
-0.01
-0.32
-0.19
-0.37
-0.09
-0.22
-0.08
-0.05
-0.04
-0.40
-0.13
-0.21
-0.09
-0.36
1760
-0.15
-0.29
-0.06
-0.30
-0.15
-0.30
-0.19
-0.30
-0.27
-0.26
-0.10
-0.33
-0.09
-0.32
-0.11
-0.40
1761
-0.05
0.01
0.05
-0.01
-0.13
-0.13
-0.02
-0.15
-0.06
-0.30
-0.14
-0.25
-0.11
-0.24
0.02
-0.22
1762
0.09
0.18
0.09
0.17
0.21
0.17
0.12
0.15
0.15
0.32
0.05
0.38
0.11
0.35
0.12
0.57
1763
0.04
0.10
-0.01
0.17
0.01
0.33
0.05
0.32
0.18
0.21
0.25
0.24
0.15
0.15
-0.03
-0.01
1764
-0.03
0.08
-0.10
0.07
-0.09
0.19
0.03
0.27
-0.02
0.18
0.04
0.18
-0.07
0.11
-0.03
0.06
1765
0.08
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.02
0.06
0.09
0.05
-0.01
0.04
-0.02
0.08
-0.01
0.18
0.03
0.25
1766
-0.02
0.03
-0.10
0.00
-0.01
-0.15
-0.14
-0.26
0.01
-0.12
-0.08
-0.17
-0.06
-0.13
-0.02
-0.08
1767
-0.01
-0.08
-0.01
0.05
0.06
-0.15
-0.07
-0.19
-0.06
-0.20
-0.08
-0.08
0.04
-0.19
-0.07
-0.30
1768
0.04
-0.11
0.16
-0.17
0.04
-0.08
0.01
0.01
-0.15
0.04
-0.14
-0.15
-0.09
-0.09
0.02
-0.01
1769
-0.06
-0.31
-0.10
-0.23
-0.11
-0.17
0.09
-0.03
0.10
-0.02
0.17
-0.13
0.00
-0.17
-0.05
-0.35
1770
-0.20
-0.12
-0.26
-0.15
-0.04
-0.19
-0.08
-0.09
-0.11
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
-0.06
0.04
-0.03
0.09
1771
-0.13
0.42
-0.03
0.30
-0.07
0.56
-0.16
0.21
-0.20
0.06
-0.19
0.21
0.08
0.29
0.05
0.44
1772
0.20
0.16
0.08
0.24
-0.03
0.16
0.00
0.25
0.31
0.05
0.13
0.18
0.23
0.18
0.35
0.15
1773
0.45
-0.06
0.61
-0.02
0.38
-0.02
0.58
-0.04
0.38
0.07
0.52
-0.04
0.11
-0.02
-0.10
-0.01
1774
-0.21
-0.26
-0.40
-0.35
-0.28
-0.44
-0.25
-0.42
0.01
-0.26
-0.41
-0.24
-0.33
-0.41
-0.22
-0.42
1775
-0.14
-0.15
-0.06
-0.10
0.13
-0.09
0.10
-0.17
-0.27
-0.15
-0.01
-0.13
0.16
0.00
-0.01
0.03
27
1776
-0.13
0.23
-0.10
0.19
-0.09
0.14
-0.26
0.18
-0.25
0.19
-0.07
0.08
-0.20
0.15
-0.02
0.02
1777
0.00
0.07
0.13
0.08
0.01
0.06
-0.14
0.16
-0.02
0.11
0.03
0.07
-0.11
-0.02
-0.05
0.05
1778
0.24
0.00
-0.16
0.09
-0.11
0.18
-0.04
0.17
0.21
0.08
-0.06
0.11
0.31
0.13
0.19
0.15
1779
0.10
-0.05
0.25
-0.09
0.20
-0.10
0.36
-0.04
0.09
0.04
0.22
0.05
0.12
-0.05
0.09
-0.10
1780
-0.30
-0.03
-0.10
-0.08
-0.04
-0.11
-0.23
-0.19
-0.14
-0.12
-0.09
-0.05
-0.25
-0.07
-0.18
-0.18
1781
0.01
0.15
-0.03
0.14
0.01
0.13
0.12
0.06
-0.05
-0.02
-0.08
-0.05
-0.07
0.05
-0.08
0.06
1782
-0.02
-0.12
0.05
-0.11
-0.06
-0.12
-0.19
-0.03
0.05
-0.05
0.03
-0.04
0.04
-0.04
0.03
0.08
1783
0.09
0.07
-0.05
0.09
-0.02
0.15
0.08
0.09
-0.25
0.07
-0.04
0.06
-0.24
0.07
-0.16
0.10
1784
0.16
-0.17
0.10
-0.15
0.01
-0.15
0.17
-0.15
0.18
-0.05
0.00
-0.06
0.25
-0.05
0.28
-0.13
1785
-0.07
0.09
-0.05
0.09
0.04
0.04
-0.03
0.06
0.28
0.02
0.17
0.01
0.25
0.02
0.06
0.09
1786
-0.04
0.10
0.01
0.07
0.02
0.12
-0.05
0.18
0.03
0.05
0.01
0.11
0.05
0.00
0.07
0.01
1787
-0.14
-0.13
-0.09
-0.15
-0.09
-0.11
0.01
-0.14
-0.24
-0.01
-0.14
-0.12
-0.18
-0.05
-0.13
-0.15
1788
0.06
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.19
-0.03
-0.16
-0.06
-0.19
-0.01
-0.15
-0.01
-0.09
0.05
1789
-0.01
0.10
0.01
0.08
0.09
0.05
0.02
-0.03
0.10
-0.01
0.22
-0.01
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.08
1790
0.13
0.10
0.18
-0.01
0.07
-0.02
0.24
0.00
0.20
-0.07
0.11
-0.03
0.13
-0.03
0.06
-0.08
1791
0.03
-0.19
-0.01
-0.09
-0.04
-0.08
0.05
-0.02
-0.01
0.06
0.02
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-0.05
1792
-0.11
0.16
-0.12
0.15
-0.15
0.15
-0.10
0.13
-0.12
0.12
-0.07
0.14
-0.02
0.08
0.11
0.14
1793
0.03
0.27
0.03
0.21
0.13
0.20
-0.07
0.22
-0.06
0.19
-0.09
0.21
-0.05
0.18
0.04
0.19
1794
-0.10
-0.18
-0.09
-0.13
-0.07
-0.05
-0.09
-0.13
-0.04
-0.07
-0.06
-0.06
0.04
-0.04
-0.08
-0.03
1795
0.15
-0.08
0.16
-0.08
0.14
-0.08
0.09
-0.09
0.15
-0.12
0.08
0.02
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.05
1796
0.05
-0.08
-0.03
-0.11
-0.09
-0.25
0.07
-0.21
-0.10
-0.15
0.11
-0.26
-0.09
-0.24
-0.11
-0.33
1797
-0.08
-0.17
-0.01
-0.16
-0.06
-0.14
-0.06
-0.10
0.04
-0.14
-0.05
-0.24
0.04
-0.19
0.06
-0.28
1798
-0.10
-0.13
-0.05
-0.07
0.04
-0.03
-0.10
0.01
-0.10
0.05
-0.06
0.04
-0.05
-0.12
-0.03
0.01
1799
-0.03
0.07
-0.12
0.01
-0.07
0.03
-0.02
0.04
0.10
-0.04
-0.08
0.04
0.09
0.10
0.17
0.08
1800
0.14
0.27
0.16
0.26
0.19
0.31
0.27
0.23
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.17
0.08
0.25
0.03
0.33
1801
0.09
0.23
0.07
0.24
0.02
0.22
0.04
0.16
-0.07
0.30
-0.03
0.24
-0.08
0.09
-0.12
0.08
1802
-0.06
0.15
0.06
0.16
-0.08
0.10
-0.10
0.23
0.01
0.18
0.04
0.25
0.00
0.15
-0.04
0.21
1803
0.02
-0.29
-0.02
-0.27
-0.05
-0.27
-0.07
-0.28
0.00
-0.25
-0.03
-0.28
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.25
1804
-0.10
-0.15
-0.02
-0.12
0.04
-0.12
0.01
-0.19
-0.06
-0.18
0.09
-0.19
0.03
-0.18
0.00
-0.13
1805
-0.05
-0.13
-0.22
-0.16
-0.12
-0.18
-0.17
-0.16
-0.17
-0.17
-0.11
-0.18
-0.10
-0.15
-0.02
-0.09
28
1806
0.04
0.07
-0.02
0.08
0.08
0.14
0.02
0.14
0.07
0.15
0.06
0.15
0.03
0.08
-0.02
0.06
1807
-0.08
0.02
0.08
0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.14
0.00
-0.02
0.01
-0.13
0.02
-0.11
-0.03
-0.05
-0.04
1808
-0.11
0.16
-0.05
0.23
-0.02
0.24
0.53
0.21
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.21
0.05
0.23
0.10
0.25
1809
0.22
0.01
0.13
-0.13
-0.03
-0.05
-0.24
-0.07
0.02
-0.17
0.09
-0.09
0.13
-0.13
0.14
-0.06
1810
0.12
-0.18
-0.01
-0.23
0.02
-0.45
-0.03
-0.37
0.06
-0.22
-0.06
-0.23
0.03
-0.20
-0.09
-0.33
1811
-0.07
0.05
-0.05
0.11
-0.12
0.01
-0.06
-0.02
0.05
0.10
-0.01
-0.05
0.01
-0.10
-0.06
0.02
1812
0.10
0.10
0.18
0.11
0.33
0.35
0.16
0.37
0.08
0.17
0.08
0.18
0.01
0.31
0.04
0.24
1813
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.08
-0.03
0.10
0.00
0.12
-0.18
0.06
0.04
0.09
-0.05
-0.01
0.03
0.05
1814
-0.14
-0.08
-0.15
-0.08
-0.04
-0.09
0.01
-0.08
0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.06
-0.09
0.09
-0.05
1815
-0.04
-0.15
-0.03
-0.12
-0.07
-0.07
-0.11
-0.16
-0.15
-0.06
-0.03
-0.04
-0.11
-0.02
-0.15
-0.10
1816
-0.07
0.02
-0.06
-0.01
-0.09
-0.11
-0.14
-0.01
0.04
-0.03
-0.14
-0.04
-0.09
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
1817
0.00
0.09
0.01
0.05
0.06
0.05
-0.01
-0.06
-0.02
-0.09
-0.02
-0.03
0.02
0.07
-0.05
-0.04
1818
-0.10
0.16
-0.07
0.15
-0.10
0.19
-0.04
0.14
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.09
0.04
0.09
0.04
0.15
1819
0.13
0.07
0.08
0.14
0.04
0.19
0.29
0.19
0.18
0.20
0.07
0.13
0.11
0.14
0.09
0.15
1820
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.03
-0.01
-0.18
0.01
-0.07
0.01
-0.14
-0.01
-0.05
-0.02
1821
0.17
-0.15
0.09
-0.20
0.23
-0.26
-0.01
-0.15
0.05
-0.08
0.17
-0.02
0.20
-0.09
0.13
-0.10
1822
-0.02
-0.04
-0.02
-0.12
0.04
-0.15
0.02
-0.08
0.02
-0.02
-0.03
-0.14
0.00
-0.01
-0.05
-0.01
1823
-0.12
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-0.07
0.07
-0.08
-0.06
-0.01
-0.07
-0.01
-0.04
0.00
-0.07
0.01
-0.03
1824
-0.11
-0.22
-0.08
0.01
-0.08
-0.01
0.02
-0.03
0.01
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
-0.09
-0.21
-0.03
-0.25
1825
-0.10
0.01
-0.05
-0.07
-0.15
-0.09
-0.10
-0.06
-0.10
-0.08
-0.11
-0.13
-0.08
-0.14
-0.08
-0.12
1826
0.10
0.32
-0.08
0.34
0.01
0.35
0.05
0.30
0.07
0.20
-0.10
0.28
-0.07
0.39
-0.06
0.46
1827
-0.05
-0.06
-0.12
-0.05
-0.06
-0.08
-0.11
0.15
-0.08
0.01
0.02
0.08
-0.01
0.10
0.03
-0.04
1828
0.06
-0.14
0.24
-0.30
0.10
-0.11
0.00
-0.41
-0.05
-0.07
0.19
-0.19
-0.01
-0.25
-0.02
-0.19
1829
0.12
0.02
0.14
0.04
0.21
-0.08
0.24
-0.06
0.14
-0.10
0.20
-0.04
0.19
0.00
0.12
-0.03
1830
-0.04
0.00
-0.07
0.05
-0.06
0.06
-0.04
0.09
0.01
0.02
-0.16
0.03
-0.05
0.05
-0.11
0.07
1831
0.03
0.22
-0.02
0.22
0.00
0.24
-0.06
0.28
0.03
0.26
-0.06
0.19
0.11
0.26
0.16
0.32
1832
0.03
-0.03
0.02
-0.01
0.02
-0.11
-0.08
-0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.05
-0.03
0.11
-0.11
0.08
-0.05
1833
-0.08
-0.14
-0.11
-0.14
-0.09
-0.12
0.02
-0.10
0.05
-0.10
0.01
-0.07
-0.05
-0.13
0.04
-0.21
1834
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.01
0.10
0.13
0.23
-0.06
-0.03
0.04
0.02
0.02
-0.13
-0.03
-0.11
-0.03
1835
-0.18
-0.01
-0.12
-0.05
-0.12
-0.13
-0.21
-0.06
-0.13
-0.07
-0.11
-0.02
-0.19
-0.01
-0.18
-0.03
29
1836
-0.12
-0.07
-0.04
-0.08
-0.18
-0.09
-0.08
-0.07
-0.07
-0.09
-0.11
-0.08
0.00
-0.04
-0.02
-0.06
1837
0.17
0.00
0.12
0.01
0.18
0.04
0.11
0.04
0.11
0.07
0.16
0.01
0.10
0.15
0.03
0.14
1838
0.13
0.11
0.18
0.13
0.05
0.17
-0.01
0.19
0.07
-0.01
0.00
0.13
0.14
0.02
0.10
0.06
1839
0.12
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
0.03
-0.12
0.04
-0.12
-0.01
-0.06
0.01
-0.12
-0.02
-0.13
0.11
-0.14
1840
-0.15
-0.06
-0.09
-0.09
-0.09
-0.10
0.00
-0.12
-0.05
-0.01
0.03
-0.10
-0.09
-0.09
-0.10
-0.11
1841
-0.08
0.21
-0.08
0.22
-0.12
0.20
-0.13
0.11
-0.02
0.17
-0.05
0.20
0.02
0.20
-0.11
0.24
1842
0.04
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.18
0.12
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.13
-0.06
0.10
0.01
0.16
0.06
0.15
1843
-0.01
-0.03
0.09
-0.06
0.05
-0.05
0.07
0.04
-0.03
-0.09
0.03
-0.07
0.02
-0.10
0.06
-0.13
1844
-0.07
-0.32
-0.02
-0.27
0.03
-0.33
0.05
-0.36
0.02
-0.20
0.06
-0.32
-0.01
-0.33
0.00
-0.34
1845
-0.07
0.28
-0.13
0.24
-0.17
0.18
-0.14
0.03
-0.09
0.04
-0.20
0.20
-0.10
0.10
-0.08
0.19
1846
0.20
0.09
0.09
0.10
-0.03
0.14
0.05
0.10
0.07
0.12
0.11
0.08
0.04
0.23
0.08
0.23
1847
0.05
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.20
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.16
0.20
0.09
0.11
0.09
1848
-0.09
-0.19
0.07
-0.15
0.00
-0.16
-0.06
-0.15
-0.03
-0.17
0.09
-0.19
-0.13
-0.19
-0.15
-0.16
1849
0.02
-0.11
0.03
-0.14
0.10
-0.16
0.05
-0.12
-0.08
-0.06
-0.08
-0.14
0.02
-0.15
-0.06
-0.19
1850
-0.06
0.02
-0.04
0.04
-0.08
0.08
-0.11
-0.05
-0.08
-0.05
-0.06
-0.01
-0.17
0.04
-0.04
-0.08
1851
-0.02
0.01
0.02
0.03
-0.04
0.06
0.03
0.10
0.08
0.10
-0.08
0.07
-0.02
0.06
0.01
0.12
1852
0.04
-0.01
0.00
-0.05
0.09
-0.05
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.02
-0.02
-0.06
0.14
-0.09
0.17
-0.12
1853
0.00
0.08
-0.12
0.07
-0.01
0.03
0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.02
0.16
0.07
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.17
1854
0.00
-0.10
-0.14
-0.09
-0.16
-0.11
-0.06
-0.12
-0.13
-0.16
-0.04
-0.11
-0.12
-0.10
-0.15
-0.05
1855
-0.12
0.23
0.08
0.24
-0.06
0.19
-0.16
0.08
-0.03
0.10
-0.09
0.19
-0.03
0.22
-0.02
0.28
1856
-0.06
0.12
0.05
0.12
0.11
0.16
-0.19
0.15
0.02
0.15
-0.03
0.11
-0.06
0.03
-0.07
0.01
1857
0.31
-0.05
0.16
-0.03
0.25
0.05
0.78
0.11
0.02
0.08
0.03
0.04
0.14
-0.04
0.04
-0.05
1858
-0.01
-0.19
0.01
-0.20
-0.03
-0.22
-0.07
-0.12
0.14
-0.13
0.17
-0.17
0.03
-0.06
0.05
-0.18
1859
0.01
-0.16
-0.06
-0.18
0.00
-0.21
-0.19
-0.22
0.03
-0.18
0.14
-0.21
-0.01
-0.18
0.08
-0.15
1860
-0.13
-0.01
-0.13
0.01
-0.14
-0.05
-0.19
-0.09
-0.10
-0.05
-0.20
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.06
1861
-0.02
0.27
-0.06
0.26
-0.11
0.29
-0.09
0.20
-0.11
0.15
-0.18
0.20
-0.11
0.19
-0.12
0.21
1862
0.02
0.10
0.15
0.10
0.01
0.11
0.15
0.09
0.24
0.14
0.02
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.07
0.07
1863
-0.03
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.10
0.02
-0.05
0.09
-0.10
0.05
0.14
0.01
-0.11
-0.06
-0.10
-0.10
1864
-0.05
-0.26
0.01
-0.22
0.04
-0.25
0.01
-0.15
-0.04
-0.18
0.00
-0.21
0.07
-0.25
0.05
-0.22
1865
0.18
-0.16
-0.06
-0.17
-0.15
-0.16
0.01
-0.14
-0.09
-0.09
-0.07
-0.16
-0.04
-0.07
0.01
-0.01
30
1866
-0.04
-0.07
-0.06
-0.09
0.10
-0.08
-0.03
-0.18
-0.07
-0.11
0.03
-0.05
-0.05
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
1867
-0.03
0.33
0.03
0.34
0.00
0.32
-0.04
0.28
-0.01
0.21
-0.06
0.34
-0.07
0.36
-0.08
0.31
1868
0.03
0.27
0.04
0.23
0.03
0.23
0.05
0.29
0.10
0.18
0.00
0.20
0.05
0.22
0.14
0.12
1869
-0.10
-0.21
0.10
-0.19
0.08
-0.15
0.08
-0.13
0.22
-0.09
0.12
-0.15
0.29
-0.18
0.17
-0.15
1870
0.01
-0.11
-0.01
-0.14
-0.01
-0.18
0.12
-0.13
0.03
-0.08
0.05
-0.19
-0.02
-0.13
0.00
-0.10
1871
0.09
-0.06
-0.02
-0.03
-0.08
-0.05
-0.09
-0.08
-0.08
-0.08
-0.03
0.01
-0.10
-0.06
-0.14
-0.05
1872
0.03
-0.02
-0.15
0.01
-0.07
0.05
-0.02
-0.02
-0.09
-0.03
-0.07
0.00
-0.07
-0.08
-0.13
-0.03
1873
-0.16
0.10
-0.11
0.10
-0.05
0.06
-0.10
0.03
-0.08
0.09
-0.08
0.05
-0.09
0.13
0.02
0.12
1874
0.06
0.03
0.21
0.02
0.12
0.06
0.00
0.09
-0.01
0.07
0.08
0.04
-0.01
0.07
0.05
0.04
1875
0.03
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
0.06
-0.03
0.08
-0.06
0.00
-0.03
0.09
-0.06
0.02
-0.06
Halland
Göteborg & Bohus
Älvsborg
Värmland
Örebro
Västmanland
Kopparberg
Gävleborg
Västernorrland
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
CDR
Price
1750
-0.02
0.09
0.02
0.08
0.14
0.03
0.17
-0.09
0.07
-0.12
-0.13
-0.09
-0.06
-0.12
-0.19
-0.09
0.02
0.03
1751
-0.01
-0.11
0.03
-0.03
0.05
-0.07
-0.02
0.13
-0.04
0.15
-0.06
0.10
0.00
0.18
-0.03
0.12
-0.29
-0.10
1752
-0.13
0.04
0.10
-0.01
-0.07
0.02
-0.06
0.05
-0.20
0.03
0.13
0.05
0.32
0.09
0.50
0.08
0.11
0.18
1753
0.03
-0.05
-0.06
-0.09
-0.11
0.02
-0.10
-0.07
-0.11
-0.05
-0.09
-0.12
-0.15
-0.17
-0.14
-0.07
0.21
-0.11
1754
-0.01
-0.07
-0.07
-0.06
0.13
-0.07
0.04
-0.09
0.23
-0.03
-0.07
0.00
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.16
-0.06
-0.02
1755
0.16
0.06
-0.07
-0.06
0.02
-0.05
0.00
-0.08
-0.01
-0.09
-0.03
-0.09
-0.15
-0.17
-0.20
-0.17
0.00
-0.07
1756
-0.06
-0.05
-0.08
0.10
-0.12
0.15
0.06
0.14
-0.09
0.11
0.07
0.26
0.04
0.37
-0.06
0.29
-0.05
0.03
1757
-0.03
0.28
0.03
0.19
0.00
0.17
-0.05
0.24
0.10
0.19
0.05
0.34
0.03
0.20
0.05
0.31
0.00
0.25
1758
0.12
0.06
0.14
0.12
0.14
0.06
0.20
0.00
0.29
0.12
0.16
-0.07
0.34
0.10
0.24
0.08
0.00
-0.04
1759
-0.04
-0.18
0.24
-0.14
0.01
-0.21
0.00
-0.16
-0.20
-0.21
-0.14
-0.36
-0.05
-0.33
-0.02
-0.43
-0.05
-0.19
1760
-0.12
-0.30
-0.27
-0.28
-0.23
-0.41
-0.21
-0.36
-0.21
-0.43
-0.10
-0.31
-0.23
-0.40
-0.02
-0.34
0.00
-0.10
1761
-0.10
-0.25
-0.19
-0.26
-0.02
-0.18
-0.13
-0.16
-0.14
-0.13
-0.07
-0.23
-0.24
-0.06
-0.28
0.03
0.04
-0.09
1762
0.08
0.41
0.03
0.43
0.16
0.43
0.03
0.32
0.17
0.28
0.09
0.32
0.10
0.26
0.00
0.33
0.06
0.03
1763
0.19
0.18
0.31
0.09
0.11
0.23
0.28
0.19
0.24
0.19
0.09
0.21
0.28
0.16
0.28
0.06
-0.01
0.06
31
1764
-0.01
0.20
0.07
0.14
0.08
0.20
-0.01
0.18
-0.10
0.16
0.00
0.14
-0.17
0.12
-0.02
0.05
-0.12
0.20
1765
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.02
-0.10
-0.08
0.09
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.07
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.04
0.14
-0.05
0.22
1766
-0.20
-0.09
-0.16
-0.04
-0.14
-0.15
-0.14
-0.19
-0.09
-0.01
-0.10
-0.03
-0.08
0.04
-0.14
-0.01
0.19
0.16
1767
0.09
-0.15
-0.19
-0.07
-0.05
-0.07
-0.19
-0.05
0.02
-0.18
0.09
-0.10
-0.01
-0.21
-0.03
-0.11
0.04
-0.33
1768
0.18
-0.12
0.17
-0.20
0.21
-0.13
-0.10
0.02
0.09
-0.07
-0.08
-0.11
0.10
-0.16
0.22
-0.12
-0.15
-0.17
1769
-0.32
-0.07
-0.07
-0.15
-0.26
-0.06
0.25
-0.15
-0.07
-0.20
-0.02
-0.26
-0.08
-0.22
-0.18
-0.23
-0.01
-0.17
1770
0.07
-0.05
-0.05
-0.10
-0.07
-0.14
-0.24
-0.20
-0.26
-0.20
-0.22
-0.16
-0.20
-0.09
-0.13
-0.16
0.10
-0.03
1771
0.09
0.23
-0.08
0.34
-0.07
0.27
-0.27
0.13
-0.04
0.26
-0.18
0.37
-0.24
0.33
-0.24
0.38
0.09
0.24
1772
0.03
0.12
0.23
0.24
0.30
0.19
0.31
0.34
-0.07
0.34
0.13
0.28
0.06
0.31
0.04
0.32
-0.19
0.28
1773
0.12
0.02
0.24
0.02
0.46
0.08
0.80
0.15
0.95
0.06
0.95
-0.05
1.15
-0.03
0.89
-0.10
0.17
-0.10
1774
-0.01
-0.32
0.07
-0.32
-0.18
-0.31
-0.16
-0.42
-0.25
-0.42
-0.45
-0.36
-0.51
-0.38
-0.32
-0.26
-0.11
-0.22
1775
0.04
-0.01
-0.08
-0.20
-0.10
-0.24
-0.27
-0.28
-0.27
-0.23
-0.22
-0.14
-0.27
-0.12
-0.19
-0.19
-0.02
-0.21
1776
-0.14
0.12
-0.23
0.30
-0.28
0.18
-0.22
0.28
-0.20
0.26
-0.20
0.24
-0.25
0.23
-0.28
0.21
-0.02
0.17
1777
-0.19
0.04
-0.16
0.00
-0.06
0.08
-0.19
0.12
-0.07
0.09
0.07
0.06
-0.09
0.03
0.14
0.06
0.07
0.15
1778
0.19
0.10
-0.03
0.03
0.01
0.08
0.14
0.10
0.04
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.40
0.03
0.11
-0.01
0.01
0.01
1779
0.14
-0.05
0.14
-0.08
0.22
-0.02
0.25
-0.13
0.33
-0.06
0.23
-0.07
0.19
-0.09
0.19
0.00
0.00
-0.05
1780
-0.31
-0.07
-0.01
-0.06
-0.26
-0.07
-0.24
-0.10
-0.23
-0.08
-0.15
0.04
-0.35
-0.03
-0.18
-0.05
-0.22
-0.01
1781
0.11
0.02
0.00
0.06
0.05
0.12
-0.22
0.15
-0.05
0.10
0.03
0.15
-0.03
0.19
-0.13
0.12
0.01
0.03
1782
-0.12
0.00
0.05
0.06
0.09
-0.06
0.00
-0.09
0.05
-0.09
-0.06
-0.20
-0.02
-0.16
-0.04
-0.08
0.30
-0.05
1783
0.06
-0.02
0.06
-0.02
0.23
0.02
0.47
0.13
0.09
0.07
-0.04
0.03
0.09
0.13
0.15
0.05
-0.06
0.03
1784
0.17
-0.04
0.04
-0.09
-0.08
-0.19
0.00
-0.19
0.02
-0.19
0.13
-0.15
0.17
-0.16
0.03
-0.15
-0.23
0.02
1785
0.10
0.10
0.04
0.02
-0.05
0.14
-0.14
0.06
-0.13
0.11
-0.04
0.13
-0.05
0.07
0.14
0.06
0.20
-0.04
1786
0.00
0.01
-0.19
0.12
-0.01
0.12
-0.04
0.13
0.01
0.16
-0.01
0.15
-0.11
0.05
-0.22
0.02
0.02
0.00
1787
-0.15
-0.17
-0.19
-0.08
-0.16
-0.12
0.02
-0.12
0.03
-0.17
-0.10
-0.14
-0.05
-0.07
-0.24
-0.01
-0.28
-0.02
1788
-0.15
0.06
0.09
-0.02
-0.08
-0.04
0.06
0.06
0.05
-0.03
0.08
-0.06
0.13
-0.10
0.32
-0.04
0.23
-0.01
1789
0.16
0.12
0.28
0.00
0.17
-0.01
-0.07
-0.08
-0.03
0.06
-0.02
0.02
-0.03
0.06
-0.01
0.05
0.21
0.01
1790
-0.02
-0.08
0.06
0.02
0.12
0.00
-0.01
-0.03
0.03
-0.01
0.05
0.07
-0.09
0.05
-0.09
0.04
-0.28
0.01
1791
0.02
-0.09
-0.14
-0.05
-0.01
0.06
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.07
0.03
-0.09
-0.02
-0.02
0.17
-0.05
-0.02
0.02
1792
-0.02
0.09
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.06
0.07
0.08
-0.03
0.13
-0.15
0.13
0.06
0.11
0.00
0.03
0.15
0.05
1793
-0.07
0.16
-0.20
0.20
-0.14
0.16
-0.05
0.19
0.10
0.21
0.05
0.24
0.00
0.18
-0.09
0.23
-0.02
0.15
32
1794
0.01
0.04
0.10
-0.04
0.01
-0.10
0.00
0.06
-0.18
-0.07
-0.07
-0.12
-0.02
-0.15
-0.05
-0.13
-0.07
-0.13
1795
0.12
0.05
0.15
0.06
0.15
-0.07
0.13
-0.22
0.11
-0.12
0.24
-0.12
0.04
-0.08
0.11
-0.02
0.08
0.01
1796
-0.09
-0.25
-0.06
-0.19
-0.03
-0.14
-0.07
-0.11
0.08
-0.17
0.01
-0.11
0.10
-0.07
-0.09
-0.12
-0.07
-0.11
1797
0.02
-0.23
-0.02
-0.24
-0.07
-0.14
0.01
-0.13
-0.07
-0.11
-0.15
-0.17
-0.13
-0.10
-0.02
-0.18
-0.10
-0.09
1798
-0.14
-0.10
-0.18
-0.15
-0.16
-0.05
-0.18
-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.07
-0.09
-0.09
-0.12
-0.12
-0.18
-0.04
-0.17
1799
-0.02
0.11
0.08
0.19
0.02
0.07
-0.07
0.04
-0.07
0.04
-0.09
0.08
-0.11
0.01
-0.01
0.13
0.04
0.02
1800
0.23
0.29
0.14
0.24
0.24
0.31
0.26
0.22
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.18
0.37
0.25
0.25
0.20
1801
0.04
0.17
0.13
0.18
0.06
0.10
0.10
0.16
-0.11
0.14
-0.12
0.18
0.17
0.22
-0.09
0.19
0.05
0.24
1802
-0.11
0.16
-0.11
0.13
-0.10
0.18
0.01
0.19
-0.09
0.15
-0.04
0.16
-0.12
0.19
0.01
0.20
-0.12
0.28
1803
-0.08
-0.21
-0.15
-0.22
-0.13
-0.25
-0.02
-0.26
0.02
-0.25
0.20
-0.29
-0.07
-0.22
-0.07
-0.26
0.00
-0.29
1804
0.01
-0.17
0.10
-0.15
0.10
-0.19
-0.10
-0.10
0.09
-0.15
-0.14
-0.15
-0.09
-0.15
0.01
-0.13
-0.09
-0.16
1805
0.02
-0.12
-0.04
-0.16
0.02
-0.17
-0.16
-0.23
-0.13
-0.15
-0.03
-0.12
-0.14
-0.11
-0.11
-0.16
-0.04
-0.15
1806
0.20
0.05
-0.13
0.07
-0.08
0.12
-0.01
0.08
0.07
0.12
-0.01
0.12
0.02
0.02
-0.12
0.02
-0.04
0.03
1807
-0.23
0.01
-0.19
0.01
-0.30
0.01
-0.18
0.09
-0.18
0.08
-0.11
0.03
0.06
0.07
-0.07
0.04
-0.08
0.02
1808
-0.01
0.18
0.38
0.23
0.35
0.25
0.02
0.28
0.00
0.21
-0.04
0.21
-0.19
0.15
0.00
0.18
-0.10
0.14
1809
0.05
-0.08
0.21
-0.03
0.08
-0.07
0.37
-0.15
0.17
-0.14
0.27
-0.10
0.45
-0.02
0.50
-0.01
0.25
0.09
1810
0.04
-0.22
-0.12
-0.26
-0.02
-0.30
0.26
-0.33
0.11
-0.31
0.00
-0.32
0.05
-0.16
-0.05
-0.22
0.04
-0.15
1811
-0.03
0.03
-0.17
-0.10
0.04
-0.06
-0.20
0.01
-0.03
0.09
-0.06
0.12
-0.20
-0.07
-0.17
0.04
0.34
-0.05
1812
0.04
0.22
0.04
0.24
-0.07
0.27
-0.04
0.25
0.07
0.21
0.05
0.15
-0.03
0.14
-0.08
0.16
-0.24
0.11
1813
-0.03
0.05
-0.06
0.19
-0.06
0.20
0.06
0.17
-0.08
0.08
-0.01
0.07
0.17
0.07
0.12
0.02
-0.05
0.07
1814
0.07
-0.03
0.19
-0.02
0.11
-0.08
-0.14
-0.11
-0.14
-0.12
-0.07
-0.09
-0.15
-0.04
-0.06
-0.07
-0.04
-0.08
1815
-0.04
-0.23
-0.10
-0.24
-0.01
-0.17
-0.10
-0.21
0.02
-0.14
-0.01
-0.15
-0.09
-0.14
-0.04
-0.12
-0.09
-0.13
1816
-0.11
0.08
-0.11
-0.02
-0.18
0.00
-0.05
0.05
-0.06
-0.05
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
0.01
0.04
-0.05
0.03
-0.01
1817
0.05
-0.02
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
-0.05
0.01
0.04
0.07
0.16
-0.01
0.13
0.03
0.00
-0.11
0.08
-0.01
0.03
1818
0.00
0.20
-0.09
0.19
0.00
0.14
0.09
0.18
0.06
0.21
-0.04
0.18
0.10
0.12
-0.01
0.14
-0.07
0.17
1819
0.12
0.17
0.27
0.16
0.25
0.09
0.08
0.13
0.04
0.07
0.02
0.10
0.05
0.15
0.13
0.08
0.16
0.01
1820
0.00
-0.09
0.06
-0.06
-0.04
0.08
0.00
-0.14
-0.09
0.02
0.04
0.02
-0.13
0.07
-0.04
0.09
-0.03
0.07
1821
0.00
-0.12
-0.03
-0.14
-0.04
-0.13
0.04
-0.06
0.11
-0.30
0.14
-0.24
0.02
-0.15
0.03
-0.15
-0.01
-0.09
1822
-0.10
-0.01
-0.12
-0.06
-0.04
-0.06
0.00
-0.01
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.04
0.08
-0.08
0.07
-0.07
0.10
-0.02
1823
0.04
-0.15
-0.04
-0.04
0.03
-0.13
-0.06
-0.27
-0.04
0.00
-0.03
-0.07
0.03
-0.04
-0.04
-0.05
-0.09
-0.04
33
1824
0.05
-0.08
0.10
-0.05
0.08
-0.03
-0.06
0.07
-0.04
-0.02
-0.08
-0.14
-0.04
-0.12
-0.13
-0.12
0.00
-0.07
1825
-0.13
-0.03
-0.02
-0.10
-0.11
-0.02
-0.17
0.11
-0.10
0.10
-0.14
0.05
-0.06
-0.06
0.09
-0.05
-0.07
-0.05
1826
0.04
0.32
-0.13
0.33
-0.14
0.37
0.12
0.26
0.03
0.32
-0.02
0.43
-0.02
0.34
0.01
0.26
0.13
0.16
1827
-0.14
0.02
-0.10
-0.06
-0.07
-0.11
0.05
-0.14
-0.02
-0.14
0.05
-0.13
-0.06
0.02
-0.12
0.04
-0.08
0.03
1828
0.03
-0.19
0.17
-0.20
0.13
-0.33
0.08
-0.28
0.08
-0.32
0.09
-0.22
0.01
-0.24
0.04
-0.17
0.00
-0.11
1829
0.13
-0.08
0.10
0.01
0.20
0.01
0.06
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.18
-0.03
0.16
-0.01
0.06
-0.06
-0.06
-0.06
1830
0.02
0.11
-0.06
0.11
-0.07
0.22
-0.09
0.14
-0.04
0.09
-0.12
0.03
-0.03
-0.01
0.02
0.02
0.04
-0.07
1831
0.14
0.34
0.11
0.23
0.03
0.21
0.05
0.21
0.07
0.25
0.05
0.27
0.05
0.16
-0.05
0.25
0.12
0.26
1832
-0.03
-0.14
-0.21
-0.08
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
-0.11
0.02
-0.08
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
0.10
0.09
0.01
-0.07
0.05
1833
-0.10
-0.22
-0.21
-0.08
-0.06
-0.07
-0.11
-0.10
-0.09
-0.11
-0.09
-0.10
-0.05
-0.06
0.00
-0.13
0.08
-0.07
1834
0.02
0.03
0.66
-0.05
0.36
-0.06
0.12
-0.07
0.04
-0.01
0.10
-0.02
0.10
-0.08
0.05
-0.03
0.06
-0.05
1835
-0.16
-0.09
-0.33
-0.07
-0.20
-0.08
-0.10
-0.11
-0.13
-0.07
-0.11
-0.04
-0.20
-0.05
-0.21
0.01
-0.23
-0.03
1836
-0.06
0.03
-0.17
-0.02
-0.16
-0.04
0.02
0.05
-0.05
-0.07
-0.15
-0.08
-0.15
-0.04
-0.09
-0.04
-0.14
-0.01
1837
0.13
0.12
0.01
0.07
0.10
0.13
0.06
0.06
0.10
0.07
0.17
0.03
0.11
0.03
0.16
-0.03
0.17
0.01
1838
0.04
0.05
0.16
0.07
0.04
0.02
0.00
0.08
0.13
0.12
0.17
0.13
-0.02
0.09
-0.03
0.09
0.01
0.09
1839
0.13
-0.08
0.14
-0.11
0.15
-0.08
0.09
0.02
0.06
-0.02
0.04
-0.03
0.43
-0.01
0.16
-0.05
0.12
-0.05
1840
-0.07
-0.14
-0.13
-0.05
-0.10
0.04
-0.06
-0.09
-0.09
-0.09
-0.07
-0.11
-0.05
-0.09
-0.05
-0.09
0.05
-0.15
1841
-0.14
0.15
-0.10
0.13
-0.11
0.09
-0.11
0.06
-0.11
0.13
-0.10
0.20
-0.24
0.12
-0.03
0.18
-0.15
0.09
1842
0.09
0.17
0.03
0.16
-0.03
0.16
-0.01
0.15
0.01
0.09
-0.04
0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
0.02
-0.05
0.03
1843
-0.02
-0.02
0.03
-0.10
0.13
-0.05
0.14
-0.02
0.10
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.06
0.00
0.03
-0.02
0.10
0.02
1844
0.02
-0.34
-0.05
-0.32
0.01
-0.38
0.10
-0.39
-0.02
-0.37
-0.06
-0.39
-0.01
-0.26
-0.02
-0.27
0.04
-0.03
1845
-0.13
0.07
-0.09
0.13
-0.13
0.05
-0.17
0.14
-0.10
0.17
-0.04
0.34
-0.05
0.19
-0.03
0.24
-0.13
0.01
1846
0.13
0.24
0.07
0.24
0.00
0.22
-0.11
0.18
0.04
0.13
0.13
0.07
-0.08
0.09
-0.04
0.05
-0.06
0.04
1847
0.16
0.10
0.25
0.05
0.27
0.15
0.13
0.08
0.14
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.15
0.03
0.18
0.08
0.11
0.10
1848
-0.14
-0.13
-0.12
-0.12
-0.11
-0.18
0.02
-0.15
-0.13
-0.21
-0.04
-0.17
-0.09
-0.07
-0.05
-0.14
0.09
-0.07
1849
0.03
-0.15
-0.14
-0.12
-0.08
-0.07
-0.01
-0.14
0.01
-0.11
0.06
-0.09
0.01
-0.09
-0.06
-0.12
-0.05
-0.09
1850
-0.12
-0.12
0.05
-0.09
-0.06
-0.08
-0.08
-0.02
-0.06
0.02
-0.08
0.02
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.01
-0.03
1851
-0.08
0.11
-0.15
0.08
-0.07
0.14
0.08
0.16
0.12
0.11
-0.03
0.03
0.08
0.00
-0.03
-0.02
-0.09
0.06
1852
0.07
-0.04
0.04
-0.10
-0.01
-0.10
0.05
-0.08
0.10
-0.01
0.11
-0.05
0.15
0.00
0.04
-0.03
0.08
-0.08
1853
0.19
0.14
0.26
0.11
0.20
0.10
-0.12
0.13
-0.11
0.03
-0.01
0.09
-0.08
0.04
0.12
0.08
0.03
0.02
34
1854
-0.10
-0.14
-0.01
-0.05
0.02
-0.14
-0.04
-0.16
-0.20
-0.13
-0.16
-0.10
-0.11
-0.05
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.06
1855
-0.01
0.18
-0.03
0.15
-0.05
0.17
-0.03
0.08
-0.04
0.15
-0.03
0.22
-0.10
0.03
0.00
0.19
-0.03
0.10
1856
-0.01
0.13
-0.10
0.15
-0.09
0.11
-0.02
0.15
0.17
0.15
0.00
0.15
-0.13
0.22
-0.08
0.11
-0.03
0.17
1857
0.02
-0.02
-0.01
-0.03
0.17
0.03
0.35
0.12
0.25
0.09
0.29
-0.02
0.34
0.06
0.10
-0.03
0.11
0.04
1858
0.05
-0.17
-0.05
-0.17
-0.04
-0.12
-0.02
-0.23
-0.11
-0.23
0.05
-0.22
0.08
-0.17
0.01
-0.18
0.07
-0.15
1859
-0.13
-0.19
0.15
-0.13
-0.02
-0.15
-0.06
-0.17
-0.03
-0.25
-0.03
-0.17
-0.05
-0.17
0.04
-0.16
-0.01
-0.06
1860
-0.08
0.02
-0.15
0.02
-0.11
-0.04
-0.19
0.00
-0.11
0.02
-0.21
-0.03
-0.13
-0.06
-0.11
-0.01
-0.10
-0.05
1861
0.05
0.15
0.14
0.15
-0.02
0.17
-0.03
0.28
-0.10
0.28
-0.04
0.25
-0.09
0.18
-0.05
0.17
-0.12
0.05
1862
0.29
0.17
0.09
0.05
0.11
0.06
0.09
-0.05
0.06
0.04
0.01
0.10
0.04
0.07
0.01
0.14
-0.06
0.04
1863
-0.17
-0.03
-0.12
0.00
-0.03
0.00
-0.06
0.01
0.07
0.07
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.08
-0.08
0.05
0.13
0.02
1864
0.01
-0.15
-0.08
-0.14
-0.01
-0.12
-0.03
-0.20
0.03
-0.24
0.06
-0.23
0.03
-0.15
0.07
-0.15
0.20
-0.06
1865
-0.04
-0.08
-0.16
-0.14
-0.08
-0.10
0.03
-0.07
-0.08
-0.19
0.05
-0.14
0.02
-0.15
0.18
-0.16
-0.13
-0.06
1866
-0.10
-0.16
0.24
-0.09
0.04
-0.15
0.02
0.05
-0.04
-0.02
-0.08
-0.06
0.03
-0.14
0.00
-0.20
-0.06
-0.10
1867
-0.03
0.28
-0.01
0.31
0.04
0.30
0.02
0.22
-0.04
0.37
-0.06
0.34
-0.02
0.28
-0.12
0.23
-0.05
0.25
1868
0.02
0.19
-0.02
0.17
-0.10
0.18
0.03
0.17
0.13
0.16
0.13
0.19
-0.01
0.18
0.02
0.23
0.14
0.10
1869
0.21
-0.11
0.05
-0.10
0.21
-0.11
0.15
-0.15
0.14
-0.16
0.11
-0.15
0.03
-0.03
0.01
0.01
0.05
-0.07
1870
0.07
-0.09
0.13
-0.12
0.03
-0.11
0.17
-0.12
-0.03
-0.15
-0.06
-0.14
0.05
-0.13
0.10
-0.06
-0.03
-0.08
1871
-0.04
-0.10
-0.03
-0.09
-0.02
-0.09
0.05
-0.10
-0.06
-0.08
-0.07
-0.02
-0.05
-0.05
-0.07
-0.13
-0.05
-0.04
1872
-0.14
-0.05
-0.18
0.00
-0.17
0.01
-0.40
0.04
-0.09
0.03
-0.08
-0.03
-0.10
-0.02
-0.11
-0.04
-0.10
-0.03
1873
-0.07
0.15
-0.08
0.09
-0.07
0.08
-0.37
0.08
-0.09
0.11
-0.05
0.09
-0.06
0.03
-0.09
0.06
-0.05
0.02
1874
-0.01
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.19
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.07
0.04
0.08
0.06
0.11
0.05
0.08
0.04
1875
0.09
-0.07
0.04
-0.06
0.06
-0.04
0.21
-0.05
0.04
-0.08
0.03
-0.04
0.03
-0.03
0.03
-0.03
0.03
0.00
Sources: Tabular commission, DDB Umeå University, 1750-1859; BiSOS 1860-1875. Own calculations, see text.
Note: Shaded cells mark years defined as famine (CDR and Rye price), i.e. when prices are more than 0.3 log units above normal (trend) and
CDR increases more than 0.3 log units above normal within a two-year period.
35