fo052006 the Megatrends Matter issue

Transcription

fo052006 the Megatrends Matter issue
FO/futureorientation
#5 2006
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
“Having
to be right
keeps you
from questioning,
correcting
and changing
yourself.”
JOHN NAISBITT, who coined the term ‘megatrends’ in the bestseller Megatrends (1982). Meet him on page 15
Dear reader,
THE PROBABLE FUTURES AND THE PREFERABLE. “What is the wind worth if we have
no direction?” So wrote one of the old Roman poets. Thousands of years ago, Romans and
Greeks, and philosophers and poets were already thinking about the future and change.
They spoke and wrote of hope and fear. “Thinking, hoping and fearing the future are part
of the life of a human being,” writes Eleonora Masini – the world’s first female professor of
futures research. In the article “The Role of Futures Studies in a Global Society”, she continues: “The wind, the rapidity of change is with us but do we know in what direction to
steer our spaceship earth?”
You can met the Italian Eleanora Masini on page 48, and in the rest of this FO/futureorientation, you can meet some of the most important and respected futurists in the world.
Some are long dead, while others are still working full time to create awareness of what
the future means for you and me, our companies, society and private life today. As Alvin
Toffler, my personal role model (and that of many others), is quoted as saying ”If you don’t
develop a strategy of your own, you become a part of someone else’s strategy.”
You can also meet the man who coined the phrase “Spaceship Earth.” His name was
Buckminster Fuller and he helped blaze the trail for “out of the box” thinking, and so is
exceptionally important to us all.
When you read the theme articles, think about the difference between the probable
future, which is expressed by megatrends, and the preferable future. Because even though
megatrends tell us a lot about what we already know about the future, the future is never a
given. You can choose to react to megatrends such as prosperity, globalization and individualization as you want.
We need the future to be human – to exist today and tomorrow. Read, in this FO/
futureorientation, about the most important megatrends and the probably futures, and consider what your preferable future is – for yourself, your company, or organization.
FO/futureorientation is back before the holidays with new perspectives on the future.
The theme for the year’s last issue is New Business Models. I can already reveal that we
have in mind to tell you about the best-kept business secrets.
Gitte Larsen, Editor
CONTENTS
THEME: MEGATRENDS MATTER
WHY MEGATRENDS MATTER
BY GITTE LARSEN ..............................................................................8
Megatrends are the great forces in societal development that will
very likely affect the future in all areas the next 10-15 years. Many
companies and organizations use megatrends in their strategic
work. In the next few pages, you can gain an overview over the 10
most important megatrends as we head toward 2020.
A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE OF DANISH MEAT PROCESSING
BY GITTE LARSEN ............................................................................................ 33
How do you communicate, to all the employees of the meat
processing industry, two of several possible scenarios for future production conditions? And why are employers and the labor organization doing it together? Read the interview with Danish Crown and
see an excerpt of the brochure that will be published in November.
15,000 copies will be printed.
OUTSIDE THEME:
TRENDS, MEGATRENDS – AND SUPERTREND?
JOHAN PETER PALUDANS COMMENTS ..............................................14
Trends, megatrends and – could it be – a supertrend? Read about
the mother of all trends.
INTERVIEW WITH JOHN NAISBITT
BY GITTE LARSEN ............................................................................15
THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTH
BY SØREN STEEN OLSEN OG STEEN SVENDSEN .................................24
The new Megatrend, social growth, will affect the agenda at social
and market levels in the next 10-15 years. For the time being, just
a few pioneering companies have drawn the outlines of the next
phase of social responsibility and are moving from Corporate Social
Responsibility (CSR) to Corporate Social Innovation (CSI).
MORE EARLY WARNING
BY TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN..............................................................28
Early Warning Systems are already today an important competitive
parameter for companies and organizations and the need for them
will increase in the coming years. Read about why and get examples
of how Early Warning Systems are used today and how they will be
used in the future.
PRIVACY: RED COAT, BLACK COAT
BY PIERS FAWKES ...........................................................................30
”Wrapped in his black coat, to anyone who spots him, Steve looks
paranoid – trying to hide. In fact, Steve doesn’t just look paranoid.
He is paranoid. Paranoid every time he swipes his card to get into
work, every time he has to carry a mobile phone, every time he
chats on the web, every time he removes the last can of soda from
his fridge. He’s being watched. He knows it.” Read the rest of this
postcard from the future, and American trendspotter Piers Fawkes
thoughts about how surveillance society can be turned to the advantage of consumers.
FO/futureorientation is published by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS),
Norre Farimagsgade 65, DK-1364 Copenhagen K.
Tel. +45 3311 7176, [email protected], www.cifs.dk
EDITOR: Gitte Larsen (responsible under Danish press law), [email protected]
SECRETARIAT: Ellen Mauri, [email protected]
ENGLISH ADAPTATION: Allan Jenkins, Desirable Roasted Coffee,
allanjenkins.typepad.com
ART DIRECTION: Stine Skøtt Olesen, NXT, www.nxtbrand.dk
ILLUSTRATION: Stine Skøtt Olesen, NXT, www.nxtbrand.dk
ILLUSTRATION DANISH CROWN: Brian Emil Johannsen, Red Alert Production
METROPOLIS: Fritz Lang, Erich Pommer, Otto Hunte, Erich Kettelhut, Karl Vollbrecht
THANKS TO: Danish Crown, www.danishcrwon.dk, Slagteriernes Arbejdsgiverforening
(SA), Nydelsesmiddelarbejder Forbundet (NNF) og Dansk Industri (DI).
SUBSCRIPTION 2006: 250 EURO plus shipping (20 EURO in Europe and 30 EURO
in the rest of the world). The price includes one printed copy and online access.
Published six times a year.
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY
BY TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN, MARTIN KRUSE OG GITTE LARSEN ............. 52
The Scandinavian countries’ labor and education policies, management style, and ability to innovate have in recent years been popular
around the world. Foreign politicians and many others have been sent
here to learn how we do it. Read about what Scandinavian management is capable of, and about the challenges the management style
faces if the Scandinavian countries are to remain in the lead.
CHALLENGE FROM THE EAST
BY GERT HOLMGAARD NIELSEN ........................................................56
China is the market of the future. In theory, it has been for the past
couple of centuries. Now it’s a reality. Western companies need to take
a close look at Chinese business and management cultures if they
are to have any hope of long-term success in such a culturally foreign
market. One of the most important challenges is to learn how to use
both halves of the brain.
´07 MAN
BY SEAN PILLOT DE CHENECEY .......................................................59
A growing body of opinion from men is that the age-old binary,
narrow deﬁnition of maleness is out, and that a DIY approach to
masculinity based upon respect, decency and intelligence is in. But
not all male literature is apparently agreeing. So what are the real
male trends in 2007?
CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?
BY CHRISTINE LIND DITLEVSEN ..........................................................61
The ability to play will be a professional qualiﬁcation In the future. Playing will become a greater part of our working life in these times where
creativity is in high demand. But what does it mean to play? Meet the
researcher and the future researcher in a conversation about men’s
and women’s different ways to play and read about the consequences
for the future labor market.
CIRCULATION: 5500
ISSN: 1901.452X
Member of Dansk Fagpresse (Danish Trade Press Association). The opinions expressed in articles are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of CIFS. Textual
contents may be republished as long as the original author and publication are cited.
PRINTED BY: Strandbygaard
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is an independent research organization founded in 1970 by professor Thorkil Kristensen, a former OECD SecretaryGeneral. CIFS analyzes the trends that shape the future. CIFS examines the present
and the future, and publishes what it finds. CIFS is a non-profit association with
160 members.
RACHEL LOUISE CARSON (1907-1964)
Rachel Louise Carson was not a futurist, but author and zoologist with focus on
people’s collective future with nature on Earth. She was a pioneer in environmental
research, and is considered today to be the woman that prompted global environmental
consciousness (which can be called a megatrend). One of her first books, Silent Spring
(1962), became a bestseller. In it, Carson challenged practices in natural science and
in the American government, not least the use of pesticides. She was attacked by the
pharmaceutical industry for her view, and some saw her as a hysterical female. She
continued, until she died of breast cancer in 1964, with pushing for change in the way
people see and live with nature. Her books are today loved by all who read them – not
least for her poetic talent.
QUOTE: “The more clearly we can focus our attention on the wonders and realities of
the universe around us, the less taste we shall have for destruction.”
By Gitte Larsen
Why megatrends matter
Megatrends are the great forces in societal development that will very likely
affect the future in all areas the next
10-15 years. Many companies and organizations use megatrends in their strategic
work. In the next few pages, you can gain
an overview over the 10 most important
megatrends as we head toward 2020.
Megatrends are great forces in societal development that will
affect all areas – state, market and civil society – for many
years to come. In megatrends such as, for example, prosperity
and aging, lies a great deal of the knowledge we have about
the future. We know that wealth will probably continue to
increase by about 2% a year in the western world. We also
know that there will be more elderly people and fewer youths
in the near future.
In other words, megatrends are our knowledge about the
probable future. Megatrends are the forces that define our
present and future worlds, and the interaction between them
is as important as each individual megatrend. That is why
futures researchers, companies and others use megatrends
when they develop and work with scenarios. Megatrends can
be a starting point for analyzing our world.
Even though megatrends say something about what we
know about the future, it is not certain how society, companies or any of us will react to these forces. In other words, it
is not enough to draw on the probable future when working
with futures research. The future is never a given, and any
one of us can affect or create the future. Megatrends have
different meanings for different companies, organizations
and individuals, because we react, consciously or not, differently to trends such as globalization (vs. anti-globalization
movements), individualization (vs. new communities) and the
increasing pace of change (vs. the slow movement).
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The three Ps
Futures researchers always work with three types of futures:
the predictable, the possible, and the preferred. The two last
– the possible and the preferred – are also worth considering
when we use megatrends in our strategic work with the future.
Megatrends say something about the probable future, but
there are other possible futures. Every megatrend can be set
aside or can suddenly and fundamentally change direction.
Wildcards – events that are unlikely, but that would have
enormous consequences – can slow a megatrend’s development or create counter-forces. For example, the events of
September 11, 2001 temporarily stopped growth and slowed
some aspects of globalization.
Certainties, uncertainties and paradoxes
Megatrends are the probable future – or express what we
know with great confidence about the future. Megatrends
are certainties. Nevertheless, they always contain elements
of uncertainty – through the effects on and reactions of companies, organizations and individuals, or through wildcards.
Moreover, they can contain elements of paradoxes/counterforces, such as the anti-globalization movement, anti-consumer movement or the slow movement.
Megatrends can be used as a methodology when you or
your company works strategically with the future. You can,
for example, use them as a base in development and innovation processes, and use them in combination with other
trends in a more specific area. You can also use them if you
create scenarios or need an Early Warning System.
In the box, we give you three examples of ways companies have used – or failed to use – megatrends. Another
example is found in the interview with Danish Crown,
which recently, in cooperation with the Copenhagen
Institute for Futures Studies, has focused on the future
of meat production in Denmark. We show how they have
chosen to communicate the message to workers in the
meatpacking industry about two different futures/scenarios
based on a number of megatrends on page 33.
GITTE LARSEN is the editor of FO/futureorientation. [email protected]
fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
”Megatrends
are the forces
that define our present
and future worlds,
and the interaction between them
is as important
as each individual
megatrend.”
HOW YOUR COMPANY/ORGANIZATION CAN USE MEGATRENDS
Many companies and organizations use megatrends in their strategic work with
the future within all the central business areas, such as corporate strategy, market
innovation, and business development, product development, marketing and HR.
EXAMPLE #1: JYSKE BANK’S NEW BUSINESS CONCEPT
Jyske Bank recently fundamentally changed its business concept, so the customer can put together his own banking solution. The bank has focused on
the product experience, both “virtually” and in the branch. The bank calls the
initiative “Jyske Difference” and their slogan is “Jyske is the bank that makes a
difference.” In the short process (four months) during which the new business
concept has been developed and partially implemented, the bank has been
especially inspired by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ thoughts on
Creative Man and the individualization megatrend. As they write to FO/futureorientation: “Many consumers see banks and bank products as uniform – and a
little boring. At the same time, we see that customers are changing behavior.
They want more influence; they are more self-reliant while demanding personal
service. The creative consumer, who wishes to create his or her own solution,
is the coming thing. Consumers want to tailor their own charter vacations, car,
and bank product. With the new initiative, the bank can better meet the modern
consumer types of the present. With Jyske Difference, Jyske Bank signals that
we are more than a bank. Jyske Bank is a bank, a store, and a modern library.
Jyske Bank is the place where customers become smarter, inspired, and experience a straightforward atmosphere.”
EXAMPLE #2: BRATZ BEATS BARBIE
Individualization has – in addition to the need to be able to choose everything
individually – meant that childhood now has more phases. Today, we have very
young children, the middle group, the relatively new group “tweens” and teenagers. The Barbie doll was market leader, but, because they were slow to note
the trend that children more quickly become “small adult consumers,” the Bratz
do quickly took a disproportionately large share of the market leader position.
Megatrends can, in other words, be used as an Early Warning System (read
more about EWS and megatrends in the theme article on page 28). It can go
terribly wrong when companies fail to pay attention to the development of megatrends. For example, traditional camera and film companies, such as Kodak,
are suffering from the rapid rise of digitalization. They saw it coming, but underestimated the speed, with the result that they have had to make massive layoffs
in the last couple of years.
EXAMPLE #3: WHAT COMES AFTER COACHING?
How will the market for coaching develop, and what will be the next? DIEU, one
of Denmark’s biggest and most successful providers of courses in coaching,
set out to answer that question. More individualization, plus several of the other
megatrends, indicates a growing market. Globalization constantly brings new
and unexpected challenges. The aging of the population means that we run
into completely new life situations several times in our life. Coaching is relatively
expensive, but wealth lets more people afford to seek professional support both
within and without the professional sphere. Commercialization means that we
are ready to pay for sparring on questions we would have handled privately with
friends and family in the past. The conclusion, after a dialogue between DIEU
and a futures researcher from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, was
that demand for individual professional support is growing, that coaching as
a buzz-word will probably be replaced by a new expression, and that DIEU as
market leader decided to create the future that comes after coaching.
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10 megatrends toward 2020
#1
Ageing
The world’s population is ageing. It is happening because we
live longer, and because there will be relatively more elderly
than youths the next decades. This is especially because the
world’s women have had fewer children the last 55 years. The
trend toward falling fertility on a global basis is so clear that
it will almost certainly continue the next decades, and that
means the world’s population will not increase.
The ageing megatrend applies to all regions of the world,
and has great significance for society, economics, corporations, and individuals. Social dynamism may be reduced
because older people are often less open to change than the
young. Most OECD countries have the issue of an ageing
population at the top of their political agendas, and health
care, pension systems and care for the elderly have been prioritized in many countries in recent years. More elderly outside the labor market means reduced tax revenues and higher
(public) expenses.
The elderly of the future are expected to get a great deal
of attention because many of them are financially well off.
Today’s elderly are in better health and more affluent than
the elderly of the past. As a result, age has taken on a different meaning, and many elderly have a completely different
self-image than earlier generations. The elderly in the western
world want an active retirement with travel, experiences or
other forms of self-realization.
The greatest consequences of ageing will be felt on the
labor market after 2010, when the number of people of working age will fall. The labor market will be a seller’s market,
and youth will be in great demand. This may prompt bottleneck problems, upward pressure on salaries, greater international competition and, in the end, poorer competitiveness
for OECD countries. The reaction can be more off-shoring
and outsourcing and a different perception of immigration.
In the immaterial and creative economy of the future, more
of the especially well-educated elderly may remain active in
business life longer, but that requires companies and organizations to start considering now new forms of employment to
create the optimal conditions for this group.
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#2
The 10 megatrends that are republished
here in a shortened, edited form, were
developed by Kaare Stamer Andresen,
Martin Kruse, Henrik Persson, Klaus Æ.
Mogensen and Troels Theill Eriksen, all
from Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies. The Institute also works with
other megatrends, such as climate
change, the knowledge society, and
immaterialization. In this summary article,
information technology, communication
technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and energy have been grouped
under ”technological development.”
Globalization
Globalization is the fast growing global interconnectedness
reflected in the expanded flows of people, capital, goods, services, information, technologies, and culture. Globalization is
not a new phenomenon, but it will mean something different
in the future.
Companies and money markets are the most global
things today, and we see a growing international division
of labor. We increasingly experience common production
and consumption values. Globalization makes us more alike
across the world, but it also makes us more aware of local
differences. When we look at what is most globalized today
– markets and companies – the trend is towards regionalization. However, in the near future we will far more clearly
than today see and experience what makes us alike – more
globally oriented – and what makes us more different or
locally anchored.
The global development leads to increased liberalization
and expanded trade in most countries and regions. However,
it does not seem likely, that the world will be dominated by
common political and ethical values in the near future. A
probable future can therefore be “A World of Nations and
Regions,” with global free trade but only deeper integration at
regional levels. Citizens and consumers also seem to be crossculturally different in their behavior and their preferences
for products. A growing number of multinational companies
have therefore begun to adapt their products and marketing
to the individual markets.
#3
Technological development
Our use of technology is what differentiates us from other
animals. We are the only creatures who construct and
develop tools that make life more pleasant for us. Since the
start of the industrial age, technological development has
accelerated, so changes come faster and in more areas. The
most important technological development areas in the next
decades are information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology and energy.
10 MEGATRENDS TOWARD 2020
Information technology has created enormous changes in
recent decades: personal computers, the Internet, mobile
telephones, industrial robots, iPods, and much more. In
2020, computers will be about 200 times faster than today’s
computers, and will have memories 1000 times as large.
Computers and robots will take on increasingly complex
assignments, and the Internet will be a breeding ground for
completely new, virtual industries.
In recent years, we have seen great progress in biotechnology with the mapping of the human genome, cloning of mammals, and genetic modification of plants and
animals. Research in biotechnology opens the door to
new, future treatments in the form of gene therapy and
transplantation of cloned organs. Genetically modified
plants and animals (GMO) may potentially relieve world
hunger. However, at the same time, biotechnology opens
a Pandora’s box of ethical questions: Is it acceptable to
manipulate life? Is GMO just another way for the West
to exploit the Third World? Will biotechnology prompt
unforeseen biological catastrophes?
Nanotechnology is a general term for technology with
structures on a nanometer scale (one billionth of a meter).
Researchers develop nanomaterials with many fantastic characteristics such as extreme strength, special electric properties
and extremely low friction. Nanoelectronics may, in a few
years, replace microelectronics. At little further into the future
are nanomachines: microscopic robots that, for example, swim
around in our veins removing cancer and plaque.
One of the great challenges of the 21st century will still
be finding energy for both the new and the old industrial
countries. Oil will run out eventually, so we must find alternatives. There is much research in sustainable energy from
wind, the sun, and the earth’s warmth and in alternative fuels
such as hydrogen and biofuel. The following decades will also
offer progress in atomic energy, both the traditional fission
energy and the controversial fusion power that creates energy
the same way the sun does.
#4
Prosperity
Prosperity is a megatrend because the majority of the population of OECD countries and large groups in formerly developing countries are now growing more prosperous. Between 2%
and 4% growth is assumed in the western world in coming
years, and in some regions – especially North America, Latin
America, and Asia – the growth rate will likely reach 10%15%. It is doubtful that Africa and the Middle East will enjoy
such growth and increase in prosperity because fertility rates
are expected to remain high in these regions, among other
factors. Moreover, prognoses indicate the Russian middle
class will grow from 50% to 85% in the next 10 years, the
Chinese from 5% to 40% and the Brazilian from 25% to 50%.
Gross National Product (GNP) is usually used to measure
and compare the wealth of nations. The US and EU are, measured by GNP, far richer than other parts of the world, but that
can change in step with the high economic growth rates and
increasing employment in many developing countries.
The economic growth will cause a change in the demand
for new types of products, with a new business structure as a
result. In short, most countries are going through a structural
social and economic change in the transition from agricultural and/or industrial society to a knowledge society. When
we grow richer, new needs arise and we consume more in the
form of intangible products such as entertainment, experiences, services, savings and investment. More prosperity changes our consumption of traditional tangible products such as
food, because affluent consumers focus on health, quality,
trust, origin, animal welfare, etc.
More prosperity and more consumption will change the
relationships between costs, prices and profit. The relationship that formerly existed between consumer prices and production costs, based on resource contributions such as labor
and capital, is no longer present. Much of the value of the
tangible products of the future is not in production costs but
in the knowledge behind the product: product development,
marketing, distribution, etc. That also means that there will
be much greater pressure on companies and individuals to be
change oriented, creative and innovative.
#5
Individualization
Individualization is the shift from more collectivist societal
norms to more individualism. In the Middle Ages, a person
was defined by his relationship to God. He was placed in a
framework where God penetrated every aspect of society,
thus making man’s fate preordained. The Renaissance and
the advent of modern industrialization freed man in this
respect. Suddenly the son of a farmer did not necessarily
have to become a farmer. Man’s fate was now more a question of interest and skill rather then obligation and tradition.
Historically, individualization is closely related to cultural
norms and change of social structure. The 20th century may
be said to be the century of individualism in Western culture. A central aim for modern man is to distinguish himself
from his fellows, and thereby obtaining a higher position in
a social hierarchy based on shared norms and values. Today
the question must be raised in Western society whether
these norms and values exist or if they just relate to the
scarce commodity rule of socially distinctive action, thus
generating an oppositional tendency to focus on individualized value-based distinction. In any case, the individualistic
approach has made branding one of the key figures in modern sales and marketing.
Individualization will be significant for the lives of the
individual – and in private relations between people. But individualization will in the coming years also greatly influence
companies. First, individualization can be read in the gradual
dissolution of traditional segments. Even today, the segment
models are in the process of having to give up because customers no longer can be divided into internally consistent
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groups. As customers, people are increasingly going to expect
individual and unique products. Secondly, companies are
going to feel the increasing employee turnover more. The
labor force of the future can handle more changes than that
of the present. Thirdly, individualization will be felt as an
employee demand for individual attention.
Read more about individualization in the next issue of FO/futureorientation.
#6
Commercialization
Commercialization is the meeting of increasingly more
human needs on the private market through trade that can
be both supply and demand driven. Commercialization is
closely linked to other megatrends such as globalization,
prosperity, individualization and digitalization. Digitalization
has made it much easier to reach consumers globally, and
the Internet promotes commercialization by making it both
cheaper and faster for companies to market to the global market. Globalization has great influence on commercialization
because of increased international trade, greater investment
and more travel. Prosperity and individualization also accelerate commercialization because consumers have more money
and at the same time demand individually tailored products
and services.
Commercialization will probably increase in the future,
and the consequences will range from even more prosperity to specialization in business and the labor market.
Specialization means that companies deliver more differentiated products and services while employees work more
with product development, innovation, marketing and sales.
This will in turn speed up the transition to the creative
knowledge economy.
Commercialization gives the individual more choices,
increases competitive pressure on many companies and
organizations, and thereby creates a growing market for new
products. More competition forces businesses to further specialization and effectiveness. Some companies will concentrate
on large-scale operations, centralization and standardization.
Others will do the opposite, concentrating on decentralization,
flexibility, niche production, immaterialization, marketing and
customer service.
#7
Health and environment
In 1962, when the American marine biologist Rachel Carson
(meet her on page 7) published
Silent Spring, she painted a picture of mankind’s lack
of feeling of responsibility for the earth. Professionals ridiculed Carson’s gloomy predictions, but when, in 1972, the
same professionals raised the alarm with the report Limits
to Growth, few shook their heads. The oil crisis had created
a new awareness of the resource problem that grew in light
of the growing prosperity and a menacing population explosion. The green wave of the 1980s put focus on ecology and
12
sustainability, and fitness centers appeared everywhere. With
the political consumer’s boycott of Shell because of Brent
Spar and French wine because of nuclear tests in the middle
of the 1990s, consumer power was manifested. Since then,
the triple bottom line has been a part of many companies’
accounts, and the development continues with renewed focus
on corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the new corporate social innovation (CSI) that you can read more about on
page 24.
Today, fitness has become wellness, and so has gained a
more spiritual and personality-optimizing character. New spa
baths, treatment resorts, and other offerings are constantly
appearing on the market, and the American wellness industry
expects record-breaking sales of US$73 billion in 2006.
The health and environment megatrend will have even
greater significance in the coming years. There will come
more age related illnesses, more lifestyle illnesses such as
obesity and stress, and more mental illness. Men’s sperm
quality has fallen greatly over the last 10 years, more
children suffer from allergy, and smoking is banned in
more and more places. There will be focus on clean drinking water – even in the countries that until now have not
had problems drinking water from the tap. The World
Bank calculates that the spread of avian influenza cold
cost US$800 million a year and prompt a significant drop
in GNP in the affected countries. The Asian Development
Bank calculates, moreover, that a pandemic could create a
period with low growth in which global trade would fall by
14%. The health megatrend is, therefore, of great significance for the world economy.
The individual household uses more and more money
on environment and health, and the number of new companies in healthcare has quadrupled in Denmark in just
five years. The modern person buys vitamins, practices
yoga and eats healthfully. In step with the individualization trend, more are interested in the body, beauty care
and wellness, and more are aware of the connection
between health and environment.
For companies, it will also be more important to take
into account employee health. Many already work to improve
employee morale, loyalty and productivity through meal programs, fitness centers, etc. We will probably also see more
countertrends to this in coming years.
#8
Acceleration
The industrial revolution was the starting signal for increased
acceleration, which has only grown since then. Today, for
example, there is more knowledge for the individual to
consider, more to produce and consume, more to throw out,
more to communicate, more to transport, and many more
people to interact with. The pace of change is the number of
changes in society per unit of time, and there are no absolute
numbers for it. But that many people say there are more and
more changes is sign enough of it.
Changes touch us on many levels, and we change job, partners, friends, interests, home, knowledge, news and ideas
faster than before. Information is not just more accessible
today – the entry of new products on the market goes faster
and faster. A single example is that it took 13 years before
30 million video cassettes were on the market, but just eight
years for the same number of CDs and only five years for
30 million DVDs. Modern people much make far more daily
choices than ever before, and our curiosity and our aspirations for development, new knowledge and improvements
will be forces that will increase the pace of change in the
future. So will new technologies such as nanotechnology
and biotechnology.
The pace of change already makes great demands on the
ability of companies and organizations to reorganize. And
that is not all: if you want to protect your competitive power,
it is not enough to be change ready – you must be changeoriented so that you do not make do with subsequently
and passively adjusting to the changes that happen in your
world. According to a study by McKinsey, it is probable that
a market leader will lose its position at the top in five years,
twice as fast as 20 years ago. Speed and flexibility are other
demands on companies and organizations in an accelerating
development.
#9
Network organizing
To enter a network is a natural part of being human.
Central to all networks is communication, because communication is the reason we have a society, a culture, an
identity and an economy. Network organizing is a megatrend because network has become a central term that
permeates our way of thinking. Cheaper transport, better
infrastructures, the Internet, mobile telephony and increasing prosperity have revolutionized the opportunities for
communication and network organizing. This megatrend
is, in other words, closely connected to the development in
several other megatrends, not least digitalization, globalization, and individualization, but also prosperity, immaterialization, and commercialization.
A network’s value increases exponentially with the
number of members who are in it. Changes in a network society do not happen linearly as they do in an industrial society.
That means that many changes that took decades in the past
now happen significantly faster. An example: just two years
after the World Wide Web was launched in 1992, 10 million
users were on it, while it took the telephone four decades to
attract the same number of users. Network organizing greatly
affects technological, societal, and economic development,
and we have probably seen only the beginning. The rapid
development potential in the network society means, on the
one hand, that companies can expand incredibly fast, as happened with Microsoft, but, on the other hand, companies in
all industries can risk outcompeting each other in a very short
time. This applies even to Microsoft, which, even though 90%
of computers use its programs, is losing share to the free
operating system Linux.
Networks drive out hierarchies and create many new
open and decentral social structures. This applies to private
life, especially for the younger generation, to the labor market, and business life. Medicon Valley in the Øresundregion
is an example of one of Europe’s largest clusters of biotechnology companies. Network organizes also promotes urbanization, because urban regions with good infrastructure, good
development possibilities, and a rich research environment
attract the creative class. Network organizing challenges our
entire way of thinking and traditional institutions such as the
nation-state, the church, culture and language because people
enter other and new networks than before.
Google is an example of a company where the network
principle has shown itself to be a good business ideology. The
Google search engine’s strength is, in fact, that it lists search
results according to how centrally a web site is in the network
– that is, according to how interesting users believe it is.
#10
Urbanization
48.3% of the world’s 6.5 billion people live in urban areas.
The United Nations predicts that the share of the world
population living in urban areas will rise to 53.6% in 2030,
or about 3.9 billion people. While the average annual rate of
change in urbanization towards 2030 is predicted to be only
0.5% in more developed regions, it is predicted to be 2.3% in
less developed regions, primarily in Asia and Africa.
Large-scale migration from region to region and countryside to urban areas continues in both Asia and the Middle
East. Rapid urbanization poses a fundamental challenge the
development of adequate infrastructure and liveable housing,
and the maintenance of healthy environments. Other than
that it also put stress on traditional ways of living, family
structure and cultural values – creating a growing potential
for social and political unrest.
Nevertheless, there are also reasons for optimism. The
historic association between economic development and
urbanization is well established. Cities are crucial environments and institutional assemblages for economic growth.
Current research indicates that even in less developed
countries cities experience lower rates of natural population
increase than rural areas, average household income is higher,
and educational levels are well above those in rural areas.
Thus, cities can also be seen as places of opportunity in which
the major need is effective management and provision of
services, creation of economic opportunity, and the provision
of safe and healthy environments.
13
Johan Peter Paludans comments
Trends, megatrends
– and supertrend?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ mantra is - if
anyone has any doubt – that the future does not exist and
therefore cannot be predicted. It could be a good argument
for packing up, getting on with one’s life and focusing on
the present right now. As we haven’t already a long time ago
packed up, it is because decisions must be made in the present
but work in the unpredictable future. Thus: Back to the future.
When the future in principal cannot be predicted, then
trends (short-term tendencies for up to the next five years) and
megatrends (tendencies which are expected to last for the next
10 to 15 years) do not make much sense. It is tempting to call
them the future researcher’s learning support teachers. They are
of course not just plucked out of the thin air but they can end
up proving unsustainable. Demographic perspectives can be put
to the test by a quick epidemic. Globalization can be brought
into so much disrepute that it comes to a halt. Without socialism’s countervailing force, the capitalist system appears to be
so brutal that the market system is seen in a bad light and commercialization stops. This can also alter the picture of welfare
that characterizes our part of the world. Interest in health and
the environment disappears because medical, environmental
and technological development ensures that everything can be
repaired. So, go ahead, smoke, and pollute as much as you like.
It is no skill to present possible developments that can
make megatrends irrelevant. When we use them anyway, it is
because they appear fairly robust and because the probabi-lity
of them holding true is therefore greater than not. This is, however, also because one must seize something – learning support, teachers, crutches or whatever one calls them – when one
has to say something about something one can’t say anything
about. One of philosopher Wittgenstein’s last and most cryptic
statements was “that whatever you can’t say something about,
you must be quiet about,” and while that is maybe true in a
philosophical sense, in the real world it does not hold water.
There is no dear mother here. Decisions have to be made. The
strength in utilizing trends and megatrends is therefore that
they both have a certain likelihood and that they are part of
promoting an awareness of which assumptions about the
future one actually bases one’s decisions on. Then one can at
least see when one has made a mistake and that is not to be
taken lightly. It can mean the world to change course in time.
Trends and megatrends are however to a greater or lesser
extent limited in time. They are not so flimsy as fads and the
like, but over time, they nonetheless change focus. Some even
turn out to be wrong. One did not use the expression megatrends in the 1970’s, but if one had done so one would probably have called the leisure society a megatrend. It turned out
that for various reasons the leisure society was cancelled due
14
to a lack of support. It might pop up again even though now
there is no sign whatsoever of this.
The question is, however, whether one should not add
to the trend-like comparison so that there is not only a trend
and a megatrend but also a supertrend. There is maybe only
this one. On the other hand, it is probably more sustainable
than all the others put together. One could call that time or
changes, or “time equals changes.” Changes take time; without changes, the concept of time becomes meaningless.
The supertrend is really the mother of all megatrends.
If society does not change, if things come to a halt, if events,
days and years repeat the same pattern then there are no
trends and definitely no megatrends. In the film “Groundhog
Day,” Bill Murray is sentenced to eternal recurrence. Every
day is like the day before and that is not funny.
And so what?
Without changes, there is no need for future research, because
the future will in principal be predictable. It is exactly like the
present. Nor is there a need for past research, sorry dear history,
because the past is also a known entity. “For eternal idleness
is death,” writes Kaalund in the song I love the colorful world,
and that is what those who are against changes should maybe
make a note of. In a general sense, and particularly for the
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, one must hope that
time, like change, is a supertrend that has come to stay. This
super trend can of course vary. Sometimes things go faster than
other times. It is thus the megatrend we call ‘acceleration’. There
are several changes per unit of time. The direction of the super
trend is not debatable. Time has a clear development direction,
and the past is behind us. When something is over, we put it
behind us. The future is in front of us and it was therefore a bit
of a sensation when an Indian tribe in Latin America, in their
language, clearly expressed that they were standing and looking
forward to the past and that the future came crashing in from
behind. Even though we use the expression “something took
us by surprise,” it is the same exception that confirms the rule
about which way time goes: from the past and into the future.
This does not necessarily mean progress. Being the pessimist he was, Kai Friis Møller said many years ago that:
“Development continues even though progress seems to
be stopped.” This implies however a basic assumption that
development is irreversible. The pendulum is therefore a bad
metaphor for the progress of time. A spiral is maybe a better
metaphor. Now and again, one finds oneself in situations that
resemble the past. The difference between optimists and pessimists is however in the understanding of the spiral’s movement.
JOHAN PETER PALUDAN is director at CIFS. [email protected]
By Gitte Larsen
Interview with John Naisbitt
How (and why) did you coin the term Megatrends?
I was trying to distinguish between trends and really big
trends, between trends and major shifts, so several times in
the manuscript I used my invented word “megatrends.” My
editor picked it up, saying let’s use Megatrends as the title
because the book is about 10 major shifts.
What was the most exciting in writing your bestseller book
Megatrends from 1982? - what drove you to do that?
The most exciting was probably not so much the writing. The
book was a speech before an agent, Ralph Sagalan, who heard
me speaking came up to me and said: “I think there is a book
in that.” As the concept had been developed over several
years, writing was just putting my ideas to paper. The most
exciting was the reaction of the people to the book.
How does it feel to be right about the future you predicted
more than 20 years ago?
firmed “astoundingly precise predictions.” But -- if you have
read Mind Set! -- you know that one of the reasons I was able
to write Megatrends was that I was not afraid of being wrong.
Had I worried at all about being proven wrong one day, I
would not have dared to make some of the -- at the time -outrageous statements that made Megatrends so successful.
Having to be right keeps you from questioning, correcting
and changing yourself. So in any field of endeavor, and in
personal life, don’t let having to be right run you.
Which 3-5 megatrends do you consider the most important
ones the next 10-15 years?
I would say the twin paths of globalization and decentralization, China, and the current evolutionary era where for the
next 50 or 100 years we will be perfecting and extending the
great revolutionary breakthroughs of the last years of the
20th century: biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology.
Not bad at all. And in fact it felt quite good when the
Financial Times on the 20th anniversary of Megatrends con-
15
JOHN NAISBITT
John Naisbitt is perhaps the world’s leading, global futurist, after he, in 1982,
coined the term “megatrends.” His book, Megatrends, was on the New York
Times bestseller list for more than two years. Megatrends has been published in
57 countries and has sold more than eight million copies. In October 2006, he
published a new book: Mind Set!
QUOTES FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO MIND SET!
”In this book [...] I focus on mindsets that are deliberately developed for a purpose. You can create mindsets that can instruct and organize you in your personal life and field of endeavor. Thus, this book provides not only the framework
and the perspective of the first half of this century but also the fundamental attitudes that are necessary to anticipate the future, to receive the future.”
”My premier mindset is ’Understand how powerful it is not to have to be right.’
It is a great release in any field of business and private life, indispensable in any
endeavor where you venture out. It is the mindset that will enable you to dare to
say or try whatever you are working on, no matter how unlikely it seems at the
time. It was the liberating mindset behind the success of Megatrends and the
books that followed. It is a mindset that supports creative imagination.”
JIM DATOR
Jim Dator, one of the most popular and accessible futurist, has made countless futures workshops over
the years. James Allan Dator is professor of political science at the University of Hawaii and director of the
Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Among his specializations are subjects such as political future,
space, society, and media production. From 1983-1993, Jim Dator was general secretary/president of the
World Futures Studies Federation, and is now a member of the Executive Council of the World Academy of
Art & Science. Dator’s latest book is Fairness, Globalization and Public Institutions: East Asia and Beyond
(with Dick Pratt and Yongseok Seo), University of Hawaii Press, 2005.
QUOTE: ”Any useful statement about the future should appear ridiculous.”
JOSEPH COATES (1929-)
Joseph Coates’ nickname is “Uncle Joe,” and after decades, he is still one of the
sharpest futurists in the world. He has often been overtaken by his own predictions, but is still much in demand internationally as an adviser. After more than
20 years in Coates & Jarrett Inc., which he founded in 1979 and retired from in
2001, Coates is still a consulting futurist. He has advised 45 of the Fortune 500
companies, and has written more than 300 publications about the future.
KENNETH BOULDING (1910-1993)
Kenneth Boulding was a normative economist who insisted on bringing more aspects of economic
behavior in the economic life. He wanted to integrate the social sciences in economic theories, and
believed that ethical, religious and ecological aspects should be part of a desired economic output.
Hw worked with a three-part classification of economic activity – development, threats, and grants – of
which he felt only the first had ever been included in economic theory. The other two aspects met great
resistance and have only in recent years been taken serious. Think, for example, of the triple bottom line
and the development within CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility). Read more about more about CSR’s
successor Corporate Social Innovation on page 24.
QUOTE: “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.”
PETER SCHWARTZ (1945-)
In addition to oil, gas, and gasoline, Shell has also “produced” Peter Scwartz, who from
1982-1986 was head of the scenario unit in Royal Dutch/Shell Group. Peter Schwartz is also
founder of the Global Business Network, and is an internationally recognized futurist and business strategist. He is author of a number of books on scenarios and strategic business development, and his first book, The Art of the Long View (1991), which has been translated into
many languages, is considered by many to be a fundamental classic on scenario planning.
By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen Svendsen
The next megatrend:
Social growth
The new megatrend, social growth, will
affect the agenda at social and market
levels in the next 10-15 years. For the
time being, just a few pioneering companies have drawn the outlines of the
next phase of social responsibility and
are moving from Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) to Corporate Social
Innovation (CSI). Developments are
moving in the direction of our having
to understand and implement innovation as an increasingly social process,
because a larger and larger segment of
society’s - and corporate innovational
activities deal with research and development of human needs.
What do IKEA, Arla, national pension plans, elective schools,
cooperatives, meeting places, flex time, Wikipedia, blogs,
mother klatches, micro-credit, open universities, evening
school, Linux, public housing, child day care, Doctors without
Borders, organic products, gray panther employees, recreational allotment gardens, Muslim cemeteries and the labor
movement have in common?
The answer is, they all represent new means of meeting
social needs. In other words, they are all social innovations.
In a time and a future when social change constantly challenges the traditional social framework and society’s models
for finding solutions, social growth and social innovations—
both commercial and those of society—will become the next
Megatrend. It will be this agenda that creates the political
arena of the future, and new market possibilities.
The consequences are that the company’s CSR will
become more innovative, and that the company’s innovation will become more social. Both are driven by market and
social developments, and by corporate profit goals. A number
of prominent companies, led by IBM, Novo Nordisk, Virgin,
DHL, have already begun to delve into these new possibilities.
24
They are strategically working to join their business opportunities to their social responsibility.
Social growth as a megatrend
When we, as human beings, develop new technologies and
forms of economic organization, we are also creating new
modes of organizing society. This story has been told many
times and from a number of different perspectives, by Karl
Marx, W.W. Rostow, Jared Diamond, Alvin Toffler and
Francis Fukuyama, to name a few.
There is a general and often unspoken interpretation that
social changes follow economic and technological changes,
that they occur spontaneously when the technological and
economic conditions are in place. But they do not. There can
be no doubt that social changes can be spurred by “the pressure of need” coming from the economic and technological
angles. At the same time, however, there is every reason to
point out that there is no direct connection between economy
and technology on the one hand, and concrete social frameworks and social patterns on the other. History has shown
that an agrarian society can be Catholic or Protestant, Islamic
or Buddhist, democratic or authoritarian, and highly-developed industrial societies can be welfare societies like those
in Nordic countries, free market societies like the American
model, or an authoritarian society like the one in Singapore.
On a local level, there can be great differences between social
patterns, for instance, two neighboring communities, two
schools in the same municipality, two companies in the same
industry, or two departments within the same company.
What determines which concrete social frameworks are
constructed, are the variety of social processes and activities
that exist. It is the constant dialogue, discussion, rivalries and
new ways of thinking--along with the constant counter reactions--that continually shape society. They shape a society’s
institutions, the dominant understanding of the world outside,
and the relations between individuals and groups. Some of
these processes occur in the formal political arena, others take
place in civil society—family, local environments, clubs/associations—and others occur in the marketplace and in companies.
The point is that all these social processes are just as
significant for the development of society as technology and
economics are. They present an important source feeding the
social growth of society, and they are driven by social innovations. Social innovations happen all the time, but at various
degrees of intensity and at different levels. They come in
waves appearing before, during or after an economic or technological shift.
THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTH - By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen Svendsen
It was the great waves of social innovation that created the modern Scandinavia. One wave was linked to cooperative housing,
the system of elective education for the sake of learning, and
the transformation of agriculture. Another wave was connected
to industrialization, urbanization and the labor movement, factors that lead to the establishment of the welfare society. A third
wave came in the 1960s, with the student independence movement, the (birth control) Pill and the women’s movement.
Parallel to these were a number of smaller social innovations, for instance, housing reform, experimental lifestyles
and new family patterns. There were parallel developments in
most other countries, and inspiration and influences arrived
from outside, but it was still, to the greater degree, the concrete social innovations that have been the defining factor in
the uniqueness of Scandinavian society. There are many indications of our standing at the threshold of a new, broad wave
of social innovation.
The next wave
Today, social innovation is categorized under many different names: political change, organizational change, changes
in attitude, and market or technological development. The
last includes, for instance, the many ICT developments
and everything from new ways of using cellular telephony
to Internet-based communities such as ohmynews.com,
Wikipedia, myspace.com and blogs, and to the open-source
operating system Linux. Nobody has really thought about
describing them as social innovations, and the creators have
not viewed them as such.
It’s high time to focus much more sharply on the concept
social innovation and compare social innovation with other
types of innovation. This is because the social perspectives
have forced their way higher up the agenda in a long series of
contexts:
- At the level of society, we now and in the future will face
great challenges that will create a need for social innovation, both commercially and socially. This pertains to: integration, an aging population, chronic diseases, stress-related illness and the balance between work and the family.
- In the marketplace, companies are becoming increasingly
oriented around social relations. This pertains to customers,
the media, the surrounding society, and not least, employees.
- Technological and economic innovation garners much
attention: it’s big business and gets strategic support.
This is not the case with social innovations. They occur
sparsely and in a fragmented manner, so we face the
risk of seeing an all-too-negative degree of social innovation in society at the expense of society, the economy
and competitiveness.
- Social innovation doesn’t come along on its own and it
doesn’t always arrive as quickly as other changes. It is
important to know what promotes and what inhibits
innovation. Increased awareness around social innovation
is necessary to re-enforce it.
That’s why social innovation is now coming into serious
focus among a number of social initiative takers, politicians
and companies. We’re seeing the beginnings of awareness
about what social innovation is and how it can be developed
in practice.
The Danish minister of social affairs recently launched
social innovation as a new focal point in social policy—a
focus on development of new initiatives in cooperative activities between the public sector, volunteer social organizations
and private companies.
In the UK, the Young Foundation has objectives regarding social innovation. The organization supports and develops projects and initiatives that can lead to new ways of
fulfilling social needs. Geoff Mulgan, leader of the Young
Foundation and a former advisor to Tony Blair, cooperates
with Conservative leader David Cameron to develop ideas
about social innovation.
Social innovation in companies
Companies have always been significant players in social
growth and innovation, but as a rule, it has been a by-product
of their efforts to create profits by developing new products
and processes, and to grow new markets.
Several companies have now taken the next step and
think more strategically in terms of social innovation. On
the one hand, their own innovation processes have become
increasingly socially oriented. On the other hand, it is
because their social role—often called CSR—has increasingly become innovative.
The influential management-thinker Peter Drucker provided an early contribution to CSI back in the 1980s. He
believes we have put far too much weighting on science and
technology as the major powers of change: “Social innovations – few of them owing anything to science or technology
– may have had even profounder impacts on society and economy, and indeed profound impacts on science and technology
themselves.” He names a number of non-technological innovations with long-term effects, such as the research laboratory
(which he views as being an organizational form), agriculture
consultants, mass social movements and management as a
trade discipline.
In the years that followed, an incredible number of people have become engaged in the topic of how companies can
control and extend innovation. Developments moved in a
direction of urging our understanding and implementation
of innovation as an increasingly social process. It should be
noted that we’re referring to technological and product-oriented innovations. Why? Because a growing volume of companies’ innovation activities deal in research and development
to fill human needs. Companies increasingly deliver service
and experiences in which customer involvement and feedback
25
”Innovation
has become social,
because it is about social
processes about feedback,
involvement and
communication.”
EXAMPLES OF CORPORATE SOCIAL INNOVATION:
A NEW STRATEGIC FOCUS
The ability to create social innovations will become a vital strategic focal point in
the future. Several good examples already exist.
- IBM has explicitly launched CSI as the guideline for the company’s social
responsibility. They have stopped donating money to charity and sponsoring
worthy social projects. Even the widespread American practice of allowing
employees to do community work—such as baking cookies for the local
school bazaar—is no longer considered relevant for IBM. Instead, they enter
projects where their specific skills can make a difference: IT courses for the
long-term unemployed; implementation of computers and programs for preschool institutions to develop language and social-development skills; having
employees from economy departments help NGOs establish systems. IBM’s
contributions have great effect, which gives IBM new relations and input from
the surrounding society. IBM employees experience a far more meaningful
engagement in their own social responsibility. They gain insight and extend
contact bases, which they wouldn’t otherwise attain, and which can be used
in corporate developmental activities.
- The global shipping company DHL’s efforts after last year’s earthquake in
Pakistan provides another excellent example. Instead of contributing cash to
aid organizations, they went in and took over vital logistics tasks of transporting and distributing emergency supplies. This action was much more valuable
26
in emergency-aid activities. The company created new relations and gained
experience in problem solving within an unfamiliar context.
- The same frame of mind lies behind Bill Gates’ social commitment. Instead of
donating part of his fortune to existing organizations, he takes an active role.
He assumes a leader role in providing social welfare, development-oriented
research, disease prevention, and does so just as professionally as Microsoft
runs its business when striving for a goal. The combination of corporate skills
and social objectives provide the company with new forms of development.
- A potentially more interesting development in the area can be attributed to
another Bill—former US president Bill Clinton. He has launched his own program, Clinton Global initiative, which aims at getting companies to become
engaged in areas such as global climate change, health, fighting poverty and
the prevention of religious or ethnic conflict. The program is based upon a
new model, called “commitment,” in which companies commit to original,
concrete, goal-oriented initiatives. They do so by using corporate resources,
often in collaboration with NGOs, the UN and authorities.
- Virgin Airlines offers another example of commitment. The carrier aims to
invest in sustainable energy. The company has committed to invest all of its
profit from air and rail travel into research and development to find renewable
sources of energy during the next 10 years. This commitment is estimated to
be worth US$ 3.0 billion.
THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTH - By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen Svendsen
are part of the product—and, even when one delivers and
develops physical products, there is usually a high degree of
service included.
It’s no coincidence that user-driven innovation has
become a mantra. It’s not primarily the technological skills
and patents a company can develop that will determine a
company’s commercial success. It is how well it is able to
understand and service users’ needs, and how well it can do
it in a continual dialogue with users. Developments in technology and science certainly provide new opportunities all
the time, and the company can add these to the process. The
reverse is that the development of need also acts as an influence on developments in technology and science. Innovation
has become social, because it is about social processes about
feedback, involvement and communication.
Corporate Social Innovation – CSI
Developments in corporate social engagement only reinforce
the conclusion about social innovation’s growing strategic
importance. CSR has become an established part of many
companies’ vocabularies, and for some—especially larger
bellwether companies—social engagement is given as much
importance as financial and environmental information in
annual reports.
In Denmark, the National Institute of Social Research
has followed developments in companies’ practices in the
area of social responsibility throughout the past eight years.
They conclude that it has grown, according to all indicators.
That CSR has come to stay is a safe conclusion. Consumers
are increasingly politically-minded and aware of social perspectives. Employees want to identify with the values of
their company. New media have contributed to increasing
transparency. Competition is global and consumers can easily
find alternatives. The media, politicians and authorities have
become more demanding in relation to corporate behavior.
Companies have reacted to these developments in the
world around them with the concept of CSR, which is developing in a manner similar to an earlier wave of corporate
engagement, namely: environmental responsibility. First,
it starts with the most aware—and in some cases the most
exposed—identifying the effects of their business activities. They introduce control routines, then monitor them and
report on them in their annual reports.
There is currently a further development of CSR. For
the time being only a few pioneering companies are sketching the contours of the next phase of social responsibility:
Corporate Social Innovation – CSI.
Novo Nordisk is absolutely a pioneer in this area. They
have long worked with what’s called the “Triple Bottom
Line,” which accounts for the company’s financial, environmental and social results. Now they are taking the next step.
As their CSR-responsible executive Lise Kingo expresses
it: “In the future, corporate responsibility is likely to evolve
into a platform for spotting and exploring needs for systems innovation and business innovation opportunities. A
renewed understanding of how businesses and communities
rely upon one another is gaining wider acceptance, even
among the staunchest critics of corporations’ influence in
society.” Social innovation is on its way to becoming a core
activity at Novo Nordisk (see examples in box).
The first generation of CSR was considered risk control. The next generation of CSR views it as a diving force
in the company’s innovation, where CSR themes become
business opportunities. Explicitly and practically, focus is
placed on partnerships with NGOs and socially active entities.
They are drawn into the company’s developmental activities. Companies enter partnerships or dialogues with public
authorities. Among other things, this ensures that social
innovations will be implemented on a large scale through
the effects of demonstration, through the public sector’s own
practices, or through legislation or legislative amendments.
In this fashion, CSR becomes and integrated part of the company’s business activities and, not least, its developmental
activities.
Especially two things are worth paying attention to
in the shift from CSR to CSI. The one is focus on business
opportunities instead of risks, and the other is the importance
of partnerships. Social innovation could become more of a
determining factor for long-term development of society that
both economic and technological innovation. It contains such
great and important potential that neither companies nor
society can ignore it or let developments occur incidentally.
Social growth, and in turn social innovation, will become one
of the strategic focal points of the future.
Sources: Danish Social Minister Eva Kjer Hansen’s speech to the council for
volunteer social work (Rådet for frivilligt socialt arbejde) 27 September 2006.
Lise Kingo: “Corporate responsibility as a driver of innovation in health care”
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, June 2006. Peter Drucker: “Social Innovation:
Management’s New Dimension,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 20 Iss. 6, December
1987. Clinton Global Initiative: http//www.clintonglobalinitiative.org
SØREN STEEN OLSEN and STEEN SVENDSEN are partners in the knowledge
firm, Public Futures, which works in the area of long-term political development
for ministries, municipalities, organizations, as well as Danish and international
companies. www.publicfutures.dk
PEACE PRIZE TO SOCIAL INNOVATION
The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded this year to Grameen Bank and its founder
Muhammed Yunus. But why? Because Grameen Bank has created a social
innovation, a non-profit business model that gives microcredits to some of the
world’s poorest people. The bank is not a charity but has an innovative approach
to its target group and innovative methods for running a bank. Therefore, the
most important perspective of this is greater than Grameen Bank and microcredits: Recognition of the value of social innovation. It is both encouraging and farsighted, because in the coming years, social innovation will be just as important
as technological and economic innovation for social development, even in rich
countries such as Denmark.
27
By Troels Theill Eriksen
More Early Warning
Early Warning Systems are already
today an important competitive parameter for companies and organizations
and the need for them will increase in
the coming years. Read about why and
get examples of how Early Warning
Systems are used today and how they
will be used in the future.
An Early Warning System (EWS) is a fairly specific tool used
by companies, organizations and government bodies to save
human lives, time and money, among other things. EWS can
be used for everything, right from ongoing monitoring of
accounts to prevention of natural catastrophes and in product
development. There are several Early Warnings Systems and
they are all based on intelligent analyses of mainly newly
recorded data and knowledge.
The need for EWS has grown
Changes and uncertainty play a big role in daily life in a business world that must respond to accelerating knowledge production, declining product lifetime, increasing product supply,
less loyal consumers and more competition. The amount of
risks companies have to handle in the future is continuously
increasing and so too is the need for EWS.
There are many examples of companies that were too
self-sufficient and that did not manage to listen and adjust
to the Early Warning signals they received. For example, the
Danish East Asiatic Company overlooked warning signals
about organizational changes and changes to world trade.
Rank Xerox did not, to a great enough extent, take technological development seriously.
A need will arise for the sorting of more and more information – a need that software producers have enthusiastically
pounced on. The art is to navigate faster and in a carefully
considered way and to turn risks into possibilities, by for
example interpreting threats to one’s product as input to the
development of new products. Carlsberg has, for example, utilized increasing pressure from the many new micro-breweries
and foreign specialized beers by being responsible for the
distribution of a large share of foreign beers and in addition
by brewing their own micro-brew.
28
In the future, we will also see that EWS will be increasingly
used to service us at home. This will happen in the form of for
example more intelligent white goods and food products. There
will also be more communication between individual electronic
elements. For example, when you leave work to go home you
can send a message to the heating system at home so that the
heating is automatically turned. Today, it is also possible to perform stress tests based on blood tests and one can easily imagine that this will be a powerful tool in HR’s future work.
Early Warning Classic
In companies, EWS consists of Key Performance Indicators
(KPI), which primarily are ongoing measurements of a company’s financial results, and measurements of other strategic
factors such as working environment and customer satisfaction. In practice, forecasts are made – i.e. an expanded form
of budgeting – of these key indicators, which are on an ongoing basis monitored and if there are big deviations, one can
react and adapt for the future. The interval of time in which
the KPIs are measured can range from real time to yearly.
The huge penetration of KPI systems indicates on the one
hand that Early Warning is a very useful and strong tool, but
also that these types of EWS have weaknesses seen from a competitive point of view. EWS will in turn become quite interesting when they are innovative compared with competitors’
systems and when they give advantages in the form of faster
and better information collection and thereby the possibility for
faster adaptability. This concerns of course the system but also
to at least the same extent the analyses of collected data.
In this context it is interesting to distinguish between
whether occurrences are exclusively measured, surveyed and
analyzed if they have previously had significance for the
company, or if measurements and analyses are also done on
occurrences which have not happened before or have not
been previously relevant for the company. It can be a vital
competitive parameter if a company catches and utilizes
exclusive information. Systems can also be too costly in relation to their potential return.
EWS’ possibilities
The possibilities for using EWS are as mentioned much
broader than just Key Performance Indicators. If we stay in
the business world, trend spotting, where one monitors the
development of trends in for e.g. colors, textiles and food is
also a kind of EWS. For those people who are considering a
career move, EWS might be a possibility, and reportedly such
a job consists, among other things, of going to a café to taste
”Whereas Megatrend analyses can
primarily be used to say something about
the overall development
in the long-term, Early Warning Systems
can be used to warn about
the development in the short term. ”
new exotic coffee types while observing young and beautiful
people and their clothes etc.
Another example of the new type of EWS is the fight
against viruses and spam. Here well developed systems
have been built to catch new viruses via for e.g. the network,
search engines and other forums, so one can as quickly as
possible develop an antivirus and have it installed at the
customer’s workplace. All things combined, IT is a complete
Eldorado for the development of EWS. Only the fantasy sets
limits on possibilities.
EWS is used in HR, for example by hiring workplace psychologists, who are aware of significant behavioral changes in
employees in order to prevent stress, conflicts and depression.
Early Warning and megatrends
Great demands are placed on both innovative thinking and economical balance and the combination of EWS and the future
researcher’s other tools are in this connection highly applicable.
Megatrends are one of these tools, which can be seen as a “very
early warning”-system. Take for e.g. the demographic development of years with small population growth and combine this
with technological development, plus an increase in wealth:
all this combined has put the sale of watches for children and
adolescents under pressure because mobile phones have to
an increasing extent replaced the need for standard watches.
The watches that are sold today are mainly high-end watches,
which function like jewelry. One could have predicted this
development with the right analyses.
Whereas Megatrend analyses can primarily be used to
say something about the overall development in the longterm, Early Warning Systems can be used to warn about the
development in the short term. The combination of for example these two tools can actually be ideal.
MORE EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS)
EWS is not just a useful tool for companies but also particularly useful in relation to saving human life, ensuring safety, monitoring the development of society
and helping politicians. Below are a number of examples of ways EWS are used
today:
- In meteorology and geography, EWS are used to predict natural disasters,
pollution and global warming. Fr example, one can predict earthquake and
volcano eruptions and research is being one in spotting and eliminating hurricanes, which are driven by water and warmth before they do damage.
- In the political world, Early Warning is used for, among other things, peace
and conflict analysis plus big political power analysis. Samuel P. Huntington’s
book Civilisation’s collision? can be said to have predicted and warned
against some of the conflicts we have seen in recent years between parts of
the Muslim and western worlds. Furthermore, political parties use ÈWS in the
form of opinion polls to monitor voters’ behavior and positions.
- Early Warning Systems can also be used to predict social tensions. For
example, it is claimed that instability in the suburbs of France during the fall
of 2005 could have been predicted. It is essential for planners and politicians
to gather information that can warn of adverse developments in society. An
example of this is polarization in grade schools, which we have seen especially in recent years in Malmö, and which could result in adverse social tension over time. For more about this see the Institute’s (subscription) report #2
2006: Polarization trends.
- At the public health level, key human figures are used to prevent obese epidemics, blood clots and lifestyle-related diseases. EWS is used in relation to
health safety to warn against epidemics and a comprehensive warning system and international network is used in relation to food product control.
TROELS THEIL ERIKSEN is a market analyst at the Copenhagen Institute for
Futures Studies. [email protected]
29
By Piers Fawkes
Privacy: Red Coat, Black Coat
Technology is going to empower us, the
consumers of the future. It can make us
strong. Once we know what companies
and brands know about us, then we can
take action about it. Read this special
feature, including a postcard from the
future, about the privacy-free world and
what powerful future it might give us
– if we take action.
Privacy seems to have been an ongoing concern for a while
now – but it’s only recently I have noticed people make positive thoughts about the future. For the vast majority of us,
we’re a little naive about the vast amount of information that
has been gathered about us – and it’s only when there’s a slip
– like AOL’s release of the search records of 650,000 users
– that we are reminded about privacy.
For a brief moment, AOL allowed access to the data logs
of the search behavior of over half a million users. There was
uproar in the online community. Why was the AOL release
such a big deal? I’m no expert or computer programmer but
if I had your search records, I could probably work out what
you did for a living, where you shopped, what brands you
liked, where you lived and worked and what the names of
your children were.
So, will we have a Big Brother-like future? Well, I’m
not too sure – and I’ve tried to suggest the reasons why in a
‘Postcard from the Future’ called Red Coat, Black Coat. Read
the postcard in box on the next page before you continue.
THOUGHT-IN-MOTION
This article is a write up of the US trendspotter Piers Fawkes’ notes that he
prepared for an appearance on the BBC World Service show Culture Shock the
state of privacy on Monday October 9 2006. The article includes his first version
of Red Coat, Black Coat (see the second box) – a story he hopes to develop
with help from feedback here and elsewhere to describe the options we have
regarding a privacy-free future. Some of the article is also based on PSFK.com
reader comments. So when you read this article, please remember, it is thoughtin-motion and not a final analysis. Piers Fawkes would love suggestions of other
examples he can add to Jill and Steve’s story send to [email protected]
30
The positive picture
Privacy is dead. It’s over. Why am I painting an apparent
invasion of privacy as useful?
We can’t wear black coats anymore. Steve is looking for
his 15 minutes of oblivion and it’s futile – whether he likes
it or not. He needs to take action – he needs to understand
what’s known about him and take action. He needs to present
himself in a new coat, a coat that says something about him.
It doesn’t have to be red – it could be navy and say ‘don’t
approach me’ – but he needs to take that action – and in the
end, I don’t think he wants to be alone.
Monitoring and poor data management happens today
already on every level. If you go into a nightclub today in
American cities, they scan your driving license. Your driving
license is one of the most important pieces of ID – and to get
in and have a drink and dance – you have to pass it over to
get all the information recorded. What happens to all that
data? Where does it go?
Many of the things I’ve mentioned in Red Coat, Black
Coat exist today and we’re already shaping what is known
about us. Like Jill’s music player, we can tell the online jukeboxes Last.FM and Pandora what songs they play to us we
like, which ones we hate and they alter the selection for us.
RFID tags in store or café loyalty cards can let managers and
coffee makers know when you’re passing through the door.
By looking at my shopping habits against my credit card bill,
they already know my preferences – cappuccino or red hats
- and because I know that, I can change it. Or even delete that.
The idea of Steve’s bus changing route is not impossible
to think of either. Today, in Internet cafes, the price changes
depending on the amount of people using the service. Why can’t
buses change direction depending on the real-time demand?
Let’s also consider how Jill met all these new people in
the café. This comes from personal experience. Online, I’m a
pretty well known person. Although I started blogging with a
false name I realized that people didn’t really know me – and
couldn’t relate to the real me – so I put on my red coat and
revealed more information about me. Just enough to help
people make opinions about who I am. By doing this, I can
place a notice for a coffee morning called Likemind on my
blog and 30 people turn up who don’t even know me. The
interesting thing is that the people who turn up aren’t exactly
random. The group is self-selecting. Not anyone is going to
come to a random coffee morning – it’s more likely that people who have got to know me – or Noah who also runs the
coffee morning – from our blogs. We therefore all tend to be
likeminded. Hence the name.
POSTCARD FROM THE FUTURE: RED COAT, BLACK COAT
It’s about that time again and Steve grabs his black Macintosh to go and meet
his one and only real friend Jill. As he wraps it round him, he looks at the
corners of his room, he looks out of his window then slips out of his front door
without making a sound.
Wrapped in his black coat, to anyone who spots him, Steve looks
paranoid – trying to hide. In fact, Steve doesn’t just look paranoid. He is paranoid. Paranoid every time he swipes his card to get into work, every time he
has to carry a mobile phone, every time he chats on the web, every time he
removes the last can of soda from his fridge. He’s being watched. He knows
it. Unknown organizations are watching his movements, brands are watching his consumption, details of every action Steve takes is being crunched by
speedy computers that predict. Computers that predict Steve’s shopping habits, health habits, voting habits, sexual habits. Steve tries to shield himself from
what he calls an invasion of privacy. He uses software to mask his identity, he
gives false names, and he uses alternative underground brands.
Jill leaves her house in her red coat and as she strolls down the street
everyone seems to know her even if they haven’t met her before.
Unlike paranoid Steve, Jill is considered as the socially evolved. It’s not
only her red coat that presents an image to the world of how she wants to be
seen. Jill understands and manipulates how the world sees her, how companies see her, how her friends see her. Using technology that was developed
maybe twenty years ago, Jill knows nearly everything everybody else knows
about her. And in the same way she uses his bright red coat to make a statement about herself, she manages the data about herself to present the image
she wants.
Information is like fashion – to be use, shown off and even bartered with.
Her friend Steve hates people even knowing about his name – but what does
a name really say about Jill. Or the school she went to, the color of her skin or
her date of birth. Jill is Jill. Or the Jill she wants you and the companies who
want to sell to her think she is.
Of course, people know about Jill through her blog where she talks
about all the things she wants to talk about. And, as she’s chatted to other
bloggers, she’s found other likeminded souls. And that’s how she’s found new
friends she’s never met before – even been contacted by a company that may
have a job for someone just like her.
At the bus station, Steve pays cash for his ticket in the machine. He
doesn’t see the idling bus change its number and chug forward to the stop
to take him on his way. Meanwhile, at the subway Jill dabs her thumb on
the scanner and uses his frequent user reward to travel for free. On the bus,
Steve pulls the collars of his coat around his ears to try to stop the blare
from the ads. Papered on the back of seats, the moving graphics try to sell
him shampoo, cheap holidays and a magazine for retirees. Jill’s subway ride
is silent. It’s peaceful – with the ad panels temporarily turned down to let her
enjoy the great tunes her music player has selected from a global jukebox.
All this peace kindly brought to her by Target stores.
At the café, Jill’s drink, the coffee makers start her mocha just as she
enters the store. Just in time - Jill’s heavy with shopping bags as she just
saw the greatest clothes to match her Red Coat in the window of her favourite fashion store down the way. And they fit perfectly.
By the time Steve makes it to the café, he’s a mess – harassed by the
world around him. The staff behind the counter guess the fake name he was
going to give but they wrongly guess the drink he was going to have. He’ll
have to wait until they make the drink again.
“Don’t worry. Come over and meet my new friends,” she says as she waves
to a table of people.
“How do you get to meet new people like you?” Steve says.
“I haven’t yet. I met them though the blog.”
“But they look like they know you well…”
“It’s the coat,” Jill replies pointing out their red coats too.
31
”Think of
how many red hat
companies find it hard
to find people
with red coats.”
Technology will empower us
But what about all this information I give out about myself? Jill
with her red coat knows that we have already lost privacy. We
lost privacy when we adopted the web en-masse and when we
started walking around with telephones. Many people feel that
technology is going to create Orwellian scenarios – but it won’t.
To be honest, I feel companies are doing a poor job with the
information they have. If a reader looks at a person the same
age in the office they work in – I bet they think that person is
pretty different to them – but many companies today see them
as the same type of person with the same interests.
Technology is going to empower us. It can make us
strong. Once we know what companies and brands know
about us – then we can take action about it.
How do we know about what people know about us?
Well, there are laws like the Data Protection Act in the UK,
which grants access to data companies own. But this is a very
static thing. There’s a group called the Attention Trust in the
US who is campaigning to make us more aware of the paper
trail we are leaving. They link to a site called Root.net – and
when you switch Root.net on, it tells you about all the information you are leaving and what companies think about you.
Once you have knowledge like this, you have power.
Power to do what? Like Jill and her red coat, you have
the power to look a certain way and people and companies
will react to you in a certain way. You can correct their opin-
32
ion and you can ask them to stop behaving in a certain way.
You can even make money from your data. There’s a site
called rootexchange.com that already allows people to sell
their information to companies.
I don’t think the implications of our power over our
personal data have been fully thought through yet. But think
of how many red hat companies find it hard to find people
with red coats. In a common forum, they can ask for red coat
people to come forward and say they will give $10 if Jill gives
them the time of day to listen to a pitch to sell her a hat that
matches her coat. Then that changes everything.
PIERS FAWKES is the publisher of five web sites (PSFK, IF!, Marktd, ECO)
aimed at introducing ideas and insights to an international audience. By managing the PSFK network of contributors, Piers and PSFK have provided a number
of services to clients like MTV (content), Corona Beer (city trends tours),
Philips Electronics (market research), Samsung (trends & inspiration), Smirnoff
(comms concepting), Microsoft (inspiration), and CocaCola (trends sessions).
www.psfk.com
By Gitte Larsen
A look into the future of
Danish meat processing
How do you communicate, to all the
employees of the meat processing
industry, two of several possible scenarios for future production conditions?
And why are employers and the labor
organization doing it together?
Danish Crown is Europe’s largest pork processor and the next
largest in the world. It’s an international food company that
produces and sells fresh pork and beef along with value-added
meat products. Danish Crown’s (cooperative) shareholders
account for approximately 90 percent of all abattoir operations
in Denmark and are the biggest employer in the industry. One
of the major challenges for the future, like other industries, is
globalization. For that reason, the meat industry employers’
organization SA took the initiative around nine months ago to
outline the consequences of globalization for Danish workers
in the industry. It was necessary to do this in cooperation with
the food industry workers’ union NNF to be able to draw a picture of the future as realistic as possible.
Debate in the lunchroom
Preben Sunke is CFO at Danish Crown and the driving force
behind the group working on the project, Future production
conditions for the meat processing industry- (see box). He says
that it is vital to include employers and employees to ensure
the results are as realistic as possible. He hopes the publication
will be received in the same spirit as that which went into the
making of it; that is, business-like and humorous input about
how the future will develop. “I hope it will be used as input for
discussions in the lunchrooms at job sites, and that it will provide insight into the effects of globalization, along with ideas
about development possibilities,” says Sunke.
The brochure is an illustrative, lively capsule of a 100-pluspage report containing all the collective thinking SA and NNF
have done on the subject of the consequences of globalization on
meat industry workers’ everyday lives in Denmark. Sunke says
that they chose to include the Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies (CIFS) in the process, because they needed a voice that
could lead them off the path of traditional thinking. “We needed
inspiration and new input, so who can look into the future better
than CIFS?” he says, adding, “There, you got a little plug.”
ÅRET ER 2016…
ILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTION
SA and NNF have published a brochure presenting two scenarios for the future
of Danish meat processing industry workers. The publication is based on reports
from a major, mutual project. In the second half of November, 15,000 copies of
the brochure will be distributed to employees in the meat processing industry.
Exerts from the brochure appear on the following pages.
FUTURE PRODUCTION CONDITIONS FOR THE MEAT PROCESSING
INDUSTRY
In a collaborative effort with a working group from the meat industry employers’
organization, SA, and the food industry workers’ union, NNF, the Copenhagen
Institute for Futures Studies participated in the project, Future production conditions for the meat processing industry. The results provide participants from SA
and NNF a common frame of reference and sketches of possible futures for the
Danish meat processing industry. The five-month-long project placed emphasis
on documenting a number of the most important data and megatrends that
would influence an expanded cooperation between SA and NNF. Four future
scenarios were developed. The project included several all-day meetings with
SA and NNF managers, as well as a major background report that went out to
managers and shop stewards at Danish Crown and Tican, the two largest companies in SA.
33
DET ER OGSÅ
DIN FREMTID
Det er ret almindeligt kendt, at man kun kan spå om fremtiden. Alligevel vil de fleste
af os gerne vide, hvordan den ser ud, så vi kan forberede os – og så vi måske endda
kan gribe ind i tide og være med til at sikre, at fremtiden bliver, som vi godt kunne
tænke os, den skulle være.
Ønskerne for fremtiden kan være forskellige – det kommer an på, hvem der ønsker..
om det for eksempel er ledelsen for en virksomhed eller medarbejderne på virksomheden. Men sikkert er det, at det er den samme fremtid, vi kommer til at leve i.
Noget af den virkelighed, vi kender i dag, flytter med ind i fremtiden, andet bliver
liggende – enten fordi det ikke var bæredygtigt – eller fordi det ikke kunne følge med
tiden i et tilstrækkeligt højt tempo. Men undervejs til den fremtid, der ligger lige om
hjørnet, kan vi gøre en indsats for at sikre, at vi får de rigtige ting med videre. Som for
eksempel slagteri- og forædlingsindustrien i Danmark.
1.
Danmark er et lille land, der producerer en enorm mængde svinekød – alt for
meget til at kunne afsætte det på hjemmemarkedet. Fordi vi ikke i tide har udviklet
produktet, konkurrerer vi udelukkende på pris. Produktudviklingen er gået i stå, så
der er ikke ret meget forædling – det er for dyrt at forædle, hvis ikke vi kan levere
produkter, der kan konkurrere på kvalitet og nytænkning. Derfor er der generelt
færre arbejdspladser i sektoren i Danmark – det meste foregår udenlands – og de
medarbejdere, der er tilbage i sektoren, har ikke samme værdi – og dermed heller
ikke længere en god løn.
2.
Danmark er et lille land, hvor det er dyrt at leve – både for medarbejdere og virksomheder. Alligevel klarer slagteri- og forædlingsindustrien sig godt på verdensplan
i 2016, fordi vi i tide har udviklet et stærkt talent for nytænkning – både når det
handler om produkter, og når det handler om fleksibilitet på arbejdsmarkedet. Det
betyder, at det er lykkedes at bevare en meget stor del af de danske arbejdspladser,
og at medarbejderne i industrien har mulighed for at udvikle sig i takt med nye krav.
Vi kan konkurrere med de lande, der producerer til lavere omkostninger, fordi vi er i
stand til at levere et efterspurgt produkt, som andre ikke kan matche.
I dag omfatter det 21.500 direkte arbejdspladser – og hertil kommer de mange
arbejdspladser i følgeindustrien. I alt er 175.000 mennesker beskæftiget på området.
Og spørgsmålet er, hvordan vi sikrer de mange arbejdspladser en fremtid på den
rigtige måde.
DET SER SKIDT UD FOR DEN
DANSKE SLAGTERIBRANCHE
Året er 2016. IVAN har været ansat på et stort dansk slagteri i 26 år. Han kan stadig
huske, da det var sjovt at gå på arbejde. Sådan er det ikke længere. Mange af de
gamle kolleger er væk, og næsten hver dag er der nye medarbejdere ved slagtelinien
– og han ved, de bliver der ikke ret længe. IVAN har igennem de seneste ti år måttet se lønningsposen blive stadig mindre fuld, fordi han er presset af den billigere
arbejdskraft fra landene omkring Danmark. I 2016 er hans løn blandt de laveste i
industrien. Sådan var det ikke i 2006... Der var hans løn blandt de højeste i industrien.
Rigtig mange af IVANs kolleger kommer fra andre lande.
Vi har skruet tiden frem til
2016 for at fortælle historien
om hverdagen – som den
kunne komme til at se ud for
IVAN og BENT.
Derfor satte medarbejdernes repræsentanter NNF og arbejdsgivernes repræsentanter (Slagteriernes Arbejdsgiverforening) sig sammen med Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning for at se, om de i fællesskab kunne pejle sig ind på slagteri- og forædlingsindustrien i Danmark i år 2016.
Det er der kommet en stor rapport ud af, og i den peger Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning på en række muligheder – nogle mere tillokkende end andre.
Der er mange hensyn og mange nuancer i spil, men der er to hovedlinier, som giver
et fingerpeg om, hvor industrien kan være om ti år.
3
IVAN
4
BENT
THE FUTURE IS ALSO YOURS
That you can only speculate about the future is common knowledge. Still, most
of us would like to know how it will look so we can prepare ourselves, and
maybe even so we can step in beforehand to try to ensure that the future will be
as we would like it to be. Wishes for the future can vary; it depends upon who
is doing the wishing—for instance, whether it’s the management of a company
or its employees. One thing is sure: both sides will be living in the same future.
Some of the reality we know today will move into the future with us, while parts
of it will remain in the past, either because they are not sustainable or because
they were unable to keep up with the times.
Along the way to the future that lies just around the corner, we can
make an effort to ensure we move the right things forward—such as the meat
processing industry in Denmark. Today it accounts for 21,500 jobs directly within
the industry, along with many more jobs in related industries. All in all, some
175,000 people are employed in the area. The question is: How can we ensure
that all these jobs will have the right kind of future?
To provide answers, representatives from the meat industry employers’
organization, SA, and the food industry workers’ union, NNF, put their heads
together with the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies to see if they could
draw up a sketch of the Danish meat processing industry in the year 2016. The
efforts spawned a major report and in it the Copenhagen Institute for Future
Studies points toward a number of possibilities, some more attractive than others. Loads of factors and aspects had to be taken into consideration, but two
main lines point in the direction of where the industry will be in 10 years.
1. BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR THE DANISH MEAT INDUSTRY
The year is 2016. Ivan has been employed at a large Danish abattoir for 26 years.
He still remembers when going to work was fun. It’s not anymore. Many of his old
colleagues are gone, and almost every day a new face appears on the butchering
line. And he knows they won’t be there for very long. For the past 10 years, Ivan
has watched his paycheck shrink, because he has been squeezed by the cheap
labor flowing in from countries neighboring Denmark. His wage, in 2016, is among
the lowest in the industry. It wasn’t like that in 2006, when he was among the
highest paid in the industry. An overwhelming number of Ivan’s colleagues come
from other countries.
1. Denmark is a small country that produces an enormous volume of pork, far
too much to be consumed by the domestic market. As we did not develop
the product early enough, we can only compete with price. Product development has stalled, so there aren’t very many value-added-product operations. Adding value is too costly if we are unable to deliver products that can
compete on the merits of quality and innovation. As a result, there are fewer
jobs within the sector in Denmark—most operations occur abroad—and the
remaining employees in the sector do not have the same value, thus, they no
longer earn a fair wage.
2. Denmark is a small country with a high cost of living, for employees and
companies alike. Still, abattoirs and value-added processing plants are thriving on a global level in 2016. That’s because we managed to develop, in a
timely manner, excellent skills for innovation, both in terms of products and as
pertains to flexibility in the labor market. This means that we have managed
to preserve a significantly large number of Danish jobs, and that employees
in the industry have an opportunity to develop themselves to keep pace with
new demands. We are able to compete with countries that produce at lower
cost, because we are able to deliver a product that is in demand, one the
others cannot match. We’ve turned the clock ahead, to the year 2016, to tell
about how a routine day will look for Bent and Ivan.
DEN DANSKE SLAGTERI- OG
FORÆDLINGSINDUSTRI STÅR
STÆRKT
Året er 2016. BENT har arbejdet på slagteriet i 15 år. Det var egentlig slet ikke
meningen, at han ville blive hængende så længe i jobbet, men der viste sig at være
en del muligheder for at lære nye ting undervejs, og det meste af tiden er han faktisk
glad for arbejdet. BENT kan stadig huske diskussionen om slagteriernes fremtid de
første år, efter han var begyndt, og dengang fløj ordene ”konkurrencedygtighed” og
”globalisering” om ørene på ham og kollegerne, men det sagde ham ikke så meget. I
dag er det ikke noget, de snakker så meget om, men det er vist mest, fordi det bare er
blevet en del af hverdagen, for BENT ved godt, at hans arbejdsplads ikke ville eksistere, hvis ikke hans arbejde kunne konkurrere med andre lande. Han ved også godt,
at det er derfor, hans arbejde stadig er meget værd.
12
2. BRIGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE DANISH MEAT INDUSTRY
The year is 2016. Bent has worked at the abattoir for 15 years. He hadn’t
planned to make a career out of it, but it has provided him with many opportunities for learning new skills along the way. And for the most part, he’s pleased
with his job. Bent can still remember all the discussions – back when he started
working—about the future of the meat industry. In those days, he and his colleagues were bombarded with buzzwords like “competitive” and “globalization,”
but it didn’t mean much to Bent. Nowadays they don’t talk about it much, but
that’s mainly because it has become a part of the daily routine. Bent knows that
his employer would not exist if the work he does could not compete with foreign
counterparts. He also fully understands that it is one of the reasons his work is
valued. Things look bright for the Danish meat industry.
We have set our clocks forward to 2016 to tell the story of everyday life – as it
could come to pass for Ivan and Bent.
34
IVAN er heller ikke ret glad for at fortælle, hvad han laver, for de fleste mennesker i
Danmark ser slagteribranchen som en industri, der hører fortiden til. Han har forsøgt
at skifte branche, men en slagterimedarbejder har ikke høj status på arbejdsmarkedet. IVAN satser ikke på at blive ved med at være slagterimedarbejder…
På IVANs slagteri laver man i dag kun den allerbilligste vare, for
det er det, man konkurrerer på. Det betyder, at det er svært at få
ret meget for varerne, så lønnen er ikke længere noget at skrive
hjem om. Det er mange år siden, IVAN har betalt topskat... Det er
også længe siden, IVAN sidst har fået mulighed for at lære noget
nyt, for det er der ikke råd til i slagteribranchen 2016.
7
At Ivan’s factory, they now produce only the very cheapest of goods, because
that’s how they are able to compete. This means it is difficult for the goods to
fetch a good price, and that means wages aren’t anything to write home about.
Many years have passed since Ivan was in the upper tax bracket. It’s also been a
long time since Ivan has had the chance to learn anything new, because the meat
industry of 2016 cannot afford it.
And Ivan isn’t very comfortable telling people what he does for a living, because
most people in Denmark view the meat industry as a thing of the past. He’s tried to
get other kinds of work, but a meat worker doesn’t get a high priority on the labor
market. Ivan doesn’t intend to spend the rest of his live in the meat business.
Det krævede, at virksomheden var hurtig til at forandre sig og udvikle produkter, som
kunne konkurrere på andet end pris, fordi de høje leveomkostninger i Danmark også
betyder, at medarbejdere i danske virksomheder tjener mere, end medarbejderne i
de fleste virksomheder i udlandet. Men han ved godt, at det faktisk også krævede en
forståelse blandt medarbejderne. For ti år siden havde alle medarbejderne i branchen
den samme løn, men i dag afspejler lønnen i højere grad den enkelte medarbejders
kompetencer og anciennitet, og ligner situationen på resten af arbejdsmarkedet.
BENT satser på, han også arbejder på slagteriet i 2026…
BENT har været en del på kursus i de sidste ti år – både
for at lære nyt håndværk og for at sætte sig ind i, hvad
det vil sige, når en virksomhed konkurrerer på det
globale marked, og i dag er han glad for, at han i tide var
med til at tage ansvar for at bevare de mange danske
arbejdspladser i hans branche.
14
17
Bent has attended a number of training courses over the past 10 years. Some
helped him improve his craft, and others aided him in understanding what competing on a global market means. Today, he is thankful that at an early stage he
took the responsibility to help ensure the future of Danish jobs in the industry.
It demanded that the company was quick to adapt and develop products that
were able to compete with means other than pricing. Due to the high cost of
living in Denmark, employees of Danish companies earn more than workers in
most foreign companies. But he also knows that this demanded a lot of understanding among his co-workers. Ten years ago, all employees in the industry
earned the same wage, but nowadays wages mainly reflect the individual
employee’s skills and seniority. The situation is generally similar to the labor market as a whole. Bent plans to be working at the abattoir in 2026.
35
FIRTZ LANG (1890-1976)
Austrian Fritz Lang is from a time when futures research had hair on its chest. It was
a time when some – and especially Friedrich Anton Christian “Fritz” Lang – showed
an almost frightening courage to work with the most unsettling futures. He created
the world’s first science fiction film, Metropolis, in the middle of the 1920s, while most
were plowing fields with horses. See some of the stills from the film, and read more
about it on the next pages.
Metropolis
1927
DIRECTOR: Fritz Lang
SCREENPLAY: Thea von Harbou (novel)
and Fritz Lang (script)
PRODUCER: Erich Pommer
ART DIRECTION: Otto Hunte, Erich
Kettelhut, Karl Vollbrecht
COSTUME DESIGN: Aenne Willkomm
ACTORS: Alfred Abel (Johhan ‘Joh’
Fredersen) Gustav Fröhlich (Freder
Fredersen) Brigitte Helm (Maria/The
Machine Man/Death/The Seven Deadly
Sins) Rudolf Klein-Rogge (C.A. Rotwang,
der Erfinde)r Fritz Rasp (Der Schmale/
Slim) Theodor Loos (Josaphat) Erwin
Biswanger (Georg - No. 11811) Heinrich
George (Grot)
The world’s first science fiction film, Metropolis, is based on a novel of the same name
by Thea von Harbou, the wife of director Fritz Lang. Filming took place from May 22,
1925 to October 30, 1026, and premiered January 10, 1927 in Ufa-Palast at Zoo in
Berlin. Only few weeks after the premiere, the film was taken down. The original version,
153 minutes long, has never been found, but most of it can be seen today. For many
years, viewers had to make do with the edited American version, which was far from fair
to the original.
In the film, Lang shows the metropolis he imagines in 2026, which is the consequence of more than 100 years of industrialization and conflict between capitalism
and communism. There are two worlds in the film: the overworld with the ruler Joh
Fredersen and his technocrats, and an underworld of anonymous workers. In the
“Eternal Gardens,” the members of the ruling class enjoy themselves day and night. The
film shows not just a class society, but also the emotional confusion that lies behind the
creation of androids – represented in the film by the female robot, the false Maria.
In 1927, Metropolis was the most expensive silent movie to date, which is not surprising when one sees the sets that had to be created, and the “special effects” that had
to be produced in a time without computers and other modern technology. With that,
Metropolis is one of the most ambitious science fiction films ever made. As the architect
behind the models and constructions in the film, Otto Hunte, wrote in 1927, the style
of the futuristic city Metropolis required solutions he could only find in his imagination,
a view echoed by the woman who created the costumes. The effect that caused Hunte
the most trouble was the “Tower of Babel” which had to appear to be 500 meters tall.
The airplanes, trains, cars and people in this clip, which is six seconds long and shown
twice in the film, were placed with the help of “special effects.”
ALVIN TOFFLER (1928-)
Alvin Toffler is one of the absolute elite in the field of futures research. His
more journalistic and sociological view of the future has in its methodology and form created a school for many futures researchers after him,
including the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. Alvin Toffler is an
eminent storyteller and writer. In April 2006, he and his wife, Heidi Toffler,
published the book Revolutionary Wealth, which is about the prosperity
of the future will be created, who will share it, and why. The best known
of his books is Future Shock, published in 1970 and still a good read. In
it, he foresaw that changes would happen so fast that we would become
sick from it – future shock.
QUOTE: ”If you don’t develop a strategy of your own, you become a part
of someone else’s strategy.”
ALAN KAY (1940-)
Maybe Allan Kay did not know he was a futurist, but he is nonetheless one of the chief architects behind today’s computers. From 1957 to 1967, he was a professional jazz musician, but
realized he had a flair for computer programming while serving in the US Air Force. In 1970,
Kay became a consultant at Xerox PARC, which later refused to produce a prototype of a laptop. Steve Jobs, founder of Apple, met Kay in 1979 and had no doubt that Kay’s idea about
the computer as a living organism, as a super-medium, was the road to the future. Alan Kay is
the inventor of the Smalltalk programming language, the architect behind the modern “windowing GUI” and the direct inspiration for both the Apple Macintosh and Microsoft Windows. Since
then, he has worked for Apple, Walt Disney Engineering, Hewlett-Packard, and is today director
of Viewpoints Research Institute.
QUOTE: ”The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
RICHARD A. SLAUGHTER
The Australian futurist Richard A. Slaughter is an academic who,
after 12 years at universities in the UK and Australia, became
director of the Foresight Institute in Melbourne. Slaughter is a
consulting futures researcher, and has worked with many different
organizations around the world. He works systematically with the
development of futures research methods and is especially interested in the use of futures research methods in education, business, and government. In recent years, he has been fully occupied
with a new concept he calls “Integral Futures.” Described briefly,
the concept is about how futures research integrates other and
new powerful perspectives in work with the future. Slaughter is
member of the board of the World Futures Studies Federation, of
which he was president from 2001 to 2005, and is a professional
member of the World Future Society.
QUOTE: ”Capitalism is perfectly unsustainable and everyone
knows it at some level, but that knowledge is repressed and there
are massive interests keeping this system going, despite the cost.”
HERMAN KAHN (1922-1983)
Herman Kahn developed the scenario method, and if you
can remember only one futures researcher, it should be
Kahn. He was a military strategist and systems theoretician employed at the RAND Corporation in the USA.
RAND is a non-profit institution that has for almost 60
years proved objective analysis and effective solutions to
public and private decision-makers within such areas as
national security, poverty, crime, education and environment. During the Cold War, Kahn developed strategies
to contemplate the “unthinkable” – atomic war. He was
an optimist about the future and our ability to predict it,
and in 1961, he founded the Hudson Institute, a policyresearch organization that challenged the more pessimistic and leftist-oriented Club of Rome. Over the years,
Kahn became even more conservative, and he was convinced that capitalism and technology had limitless potential for growth. His most famous books are Thinking about
the Unthinkable (1962) and The Next 200 Years (1972),
which describe an optimistic scenario for economic conditions in the year 2176.
ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINI
Eleonora Barberieri Masini was born in Guatemala, but has lived in Italy
since the age of five. She is a professor of human ecology and of futures
studies – the first woman of the type – and has taught futures studies
at Gregorian University in Rome since 1976. For five years, she was
general secretary of the World Futures Studies Federation, and was its
president for ten. In addition, she is on the board of the World Future
Society. Her greatest interests are futures research, methodologies, values change, and the role of women in the future.
QUOTE: “Thinking, hoping or fearing the future is part of the life of the
human being.”
HUGUES DE JOUVENEL
Hugues de Jouvenel was genetically blessed as the son of futurist Bertrand de
Jouvenel, who helped developed the European branch of futures research, and who
among others founded the “Association de Futuribles.” The successor to this organization, “Futuribles International,” has been led by Hugues de Jouvenel since 1974. He is
also editor of the periodical “Futuribles.” Futuribles International and
Hugues de Jouvenel want, as does the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, to
place themselves in the space between universities and consultants, and puts great
emphasis on the future as a space of possibility. He is strategic adviser to companies,
and is an international expert in forecasting and strategy. Along with Michel Codet, he is
probably the best-known French-speaking futurist.
BUCKMINSTER FULLER (1895-1983)
Buckminster Fuller was one of the world’s first futurists and global thinkers. His friends called him “Bucky.” While he had neither money nor
academic degrees, he invented such terms as “Spaceship Earth” and
“synergy,” which he thought was a basic principle in all interactive systems.
Throughout his life, he was most interested in whether humanity had a
chance to successfully survive on earth. He wrote 28 books and made
many inventions in design and architecture, but most of his inventions have
never been put in production. Fuller was an incarnate skeptic of convention, and has a great deal of the honor that many more began to think “out
of the box.” Many criticized him strongly, while others still believe his work
has not gotten the attention it deserves.
By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte Larsen
The Scandinavian Way
The Scandinavian countries’ labor and
education policies, management style, and
ability to innovate have in recent years
been popular around the world. Foreign
politicians and many others have been
sent here to learn how we do it. Read
about what Scandinavian management is
capable of, and about the challenges the
management style faces if the Scandinavian countries are to remain in the lead.
When Europe needs vision, it looks increasingly often to
the Nordic area. The countries to the north have managed
to create a welfare system with free education, public support plans, and a well-developed public health service. The
Nordic countries top the international rankings of the most
competitive regions in the world despite their having some
of the highest taxes in the world, and despite their workers
working fewer hours than those of almost any other country.
Measured in GNP per capita, the Nordic region, if defined
as one country, is among the richest in the world, surpassed
only be Luxembourg, Switzerland and Ireland. Moreover, the
five Nordic nationalities are some of the world’s happiest.
How is it possible?
The special and so-called Scandinavian model is a big
part of the answer to the question. Pragmatism, consensus,
and “down-to-earthness” have allowed the Nordics to find
their own third way, where equality and socialism from the
east are combined with freedom and market forces from the
west. You can read more answers by reading the latest member report from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies,
The Scandinavian Way (see box).
Not least, the Danish flexicurity model attracts foreign
attention, and is discussed widely in international periodicals and newspapers such as Newsweek, the International
Herald-Tribune, and the Financial Times. Even the usually
critical economists of the OECD have more or less praised the
model. The international research world is also interested in
52
the model: Together with two other universities (including
Aalborg University) and a business school, Tilburg University
in the Netherlands has started a 3-year research program on
the flexicurity model.
In many ways, the Scandinavian Way is a dream that
has already come true. So what should be the future dream?
Or, in other words, how do we remain innovative when it
comes to the development of welfare, labor policy, and management style?
Can Scandinavian management be exported?
Denmark leads the Scandinavian countries when it comes to
good management, and according to the IMD, Denmark has
the world’s best management practice. In IMD’s study of management practice, Scandinavia is at the top, mainly because of
exceptional strength in ethics, social responsibility, environment,
health, and accounting. Each of the countries is represented at
the top. Moreover, Scandinavia leads in areas such as shareholder value, customer satisfaction and management trustworthiness
The interest in the Scandinavian management style is not
new, but the need for a new management style that works in
the knowledge economy is growing in many countries. Many
believe the Scandinavian management style is better suited
for addressing the challenges companies and organizations
face in the knowledge society. The style is network-oriented
and motivating, and managers manage to empower employees to a greater degree than with other management styles. In
Scandinavia, companies manage with goals and values rather
than control and strict chains of command.
IKEA’s management style around the world is thought to
be informed by the Swedish management style. According to
Waldemar Schmidt, former CEO in the global service company ISS with more than 350,000 employees, the Scandinavian
style can be exported. Schmidt made a study, with IMD and
McKinsey, a management consultancy, of Group 4, Securitas,
Compass and Sodhexo. Through acquisitions, Compass and
Sodhexo had become familiar with Scandinavian management style, and were considered to have a Scandinavian islet
NORDIC REGION AND SCANDINAVIA
The Nordic countries are Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.
The Scandinavian countries are Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
”The flat structure has the strength of
breaking down the borders between management and staff.
What is maybe especially Scandinavian is that the low power structure
is often followed up with great interest
and consideration for the staff.”
in their management. Something the studies could confirm.
All of the companies beat their American rivals. Nevertheless,
is that enough to conclude that Scandinavian management
style is better than other management styles?
Scandinavian management is democratic management.
Democratic managers are results-oriented, and enter into discussions with subordinates to achieve consensus. Democratic
managers who are both relation-oriented and goal-oriented,
are better at creating productivity, employee happiness, and
collegiality among the staff. They create greater staff efficiency, more risk-taking, and a feeling of accomplishment.
A study of the organizational structure of 1000 Danish companies, undertaken by Rambøll, showed that traditional companies with a hierarchal organization earned an ROI of 2.45%.
Modern companies, characterized by more democratic management, achieved ROI of 6.4%. 29% of the traditional companies
operated with losses, against only 16% of the modern ones.
Confidence, care and motivation
An often mentioned example, when the discussion turns to
Scandinavia, is the especially short power distance that makes
it easy to create a flat company structure.
The network philosophy and the idea of the flat organization were not born in Scandinavia. It became popular in
the US largely thanks to Tom Wolfe’s excellent article about
the inventor of the microchip, Bob Noyce, who is also known
as the Henry Ford of Silicon Valley. Scandinavia offered fertile soil for this new way of thinking, because it put words
to an existing specifically Scandinavian organizational trait.
In 1985, Scandinavian Airlines CEO Jan Carlzon published
his book Riv Pyrmiderna (published in English in 1989 as
Moments of Truth.) The Swedish title “Tear down the pyramids” probably better illustrates Carlzon’s thinking about flat
organizations. The book and discussion about Carlzon have,
perhaps more than anything else, helped cement the understanding of something uniquely Scandinavian.
The flat structure has the strength of breaking down the
borders between management and staff. What is maybe especially Scandinavian is that the low power structure is often
followed up with great interest and consideration for the staff.
The manager manages to communicate to his employees that
they are important to the company, and that their values have
meaning. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Nordic countries top the IMD list for corporate values.
The core values in Scandinavian management are care and
trust, and trust is at the same time an expression that great
responsibility is delegated to the individual employee. The
prerequisite for delegating responsibility is the generally high
education level and that Scandinavians from childhood are
taught to think independently and critically. Nordic employees have developed their professional skills out of personal
interest and not from the likelihood of getting a job or good
salary. That gives a high level of competence and some of the
world’s most motivated workers. That combination is particularly important, because research into creativity shows that
the combination of strong qualifications and motivation is
required for creativity and, in the end, innovation.
In a number of areas, the Scandinavian culture is
thought to promote a more creative workplace. The short
distance from top to bottom strengthens the flow of ideas
through the organization. In Scandinavia, it is not so much
the position in the organization as it is the arguments that
decide what is right or wrong. That means there is greater
possibility for more and freer debates. The strongly relationoriented management style strengthens openness and trust
in the company, which again helps promote well-being and
motivation, both critical for creativity.
At a time when the need for innovation and change-readiness perhaps has never been greater, because of the growing competition from abroad, there are selected companies
around the world who in remarkable ways differentiate themselves from others. Nevertheless, there is probably no region
in the world that, to the degree found in Scandinavia, has this
company culture from childhood.
Mads Øvlisen, former CEO of Novo Nordisk, a pharmaceuticals maker, represents the Scandinavian management style. This is how he describes his experience with the
American model: ”Already in my time in the USA, the terrifying thing for me was that the people, who are a company,
did only what was expected of them and not what they were
capable of. I did not want to work in an American company.
It was a type of military organization that was completely
hopeless. One that decided how much time you used, when
you were promoted, what you said to whom and whom you
addressed. A hierarchy I simply could not use.”
Anil Kapur, chef for Health Care Novo Nordisk India,
comes from another management tradition. He says:”Mads’
greatest contribution to the company is that he has shown
53
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY - By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte Larsen
trust and confidence in people. Shown trust in their ability to take care of things, and shown them interest. If one
person does someone a good deed, then that person will do
something similar for others down the chain, and that form
of snowball effect will end with something we can call a
corporate culture... Maybe some will ask: how can a person
contribute so much to the culture in a whole company? Well,
if that person happens to be the company’s top manager, and
he acts like that every day with people, it will trickle down
through the company.”
Kapur points out, moreover, that when one shows people
trust, they will honor it. In that sense, we can say that elements of the Scandinavian management model can be beneficially exported.
The good manager
Over the last 60 years, at least, business has tried to figure out
what characteristics are shared by good managers. In these
studies, researchers have decided that management qualities
NEW REPORT:
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY
the
Scandinavian
way
Medlemsrapport nr. 3/2006 The Scandinavian way
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
54
depend on personal qualities. Put simply, a manager is not
what you become, it is what you are.
Good management is, however, also contextual. It is
changeable and related to the surrounding world.
Today, a good manager is measured against a sensible
combination of goal-oriented and relation-oriented behavior.
Professor Göran Ekvall has added a third category, change
and development-oriented behavior. Ekvall shows two
managerial types are especially well suited to run a modern
company. The one organizes, planning from the small steps
principle. Seems to handle everything, takes no unnecessary
risks, but is not against change. Development happens over
time with continuous development. The other is, to a greater
degree, aimed at change and is strongly relation-oriented.
There is a focus on understanding and the opportunity for the
individual worker to be creative, and the management understands how to take care of the gifted workers and get them to
grow. There is more focus on leadership than management.
BEST PRACTICE: SWEDEN – WORLD-CLASS RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Sweden is interesting by European standards because it has been decades
ahead of other countries when it comes to research and development. In 2000,
the EU set an ambitious goal for itself, the so-called Lisbon strategy. The goal
is to be the most dynamic, competitive, knowledge-based economic region by
2010. By 2010, the EU should use 3% of GNP on research and development, a
share that most EU countries have not yet attained. Sweden, however, reached
this goal in 1993
BEST PRACTICE: NORWAY – SUCCESSFUL OIL ADVENTURE.
In 1970, Norway began an oil adventure that has given it the highest GNP
per capita in the world. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Norway
can afford a welfare state. However, the standard of living has not tempted
Norwegians to rest easy. How can Norway have the world’s most productive
economy, when history shows that an economy based on natural resources
often achieves little growth and can be fatal for a country? Norway is an example of Best Practice when it comes to the ability to manage a natural resourcebased economy in a responsible manner to the benefit of the Norwegian society.
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ newest Member Report,
The Scandinavian Way (#3 2006), covers the factors behind the so-called
Scandinavian model. The report focuses on the Scandinavian models future
opportunities and threats, and offers insights into the central challenges facing
the Nordic countries. In this Member Report, CIFS has chosen topics that are
particularly characteristic of Scandinavia, and that may be of interest not just to
Scandinavians, but also to our international customers who desire insight into
Scandinavian conditions. The report is aimed at decision makers in international
companies and organizations who want to understand the Scandinavian labor
and education policies, management style, and innovation efforts.
In the report, you can read about the history and special characteristics of
the welfare state, and read special best practice reports from Denmark, Norway,
Sweden, and Finland.
BEST PRACTICE: FINLAND – THE NECESSARY SKILLS
Finland has been forced to make radical changes to survive. A new modern
Finland has risen from the wreck of the Finland that was left on its own when
its biggest cooperative partner, the Soviet Union, collapsed. Crises often compel leaders to show leadership and make unpopular, but necessary, decisions.
Instead of rescuing industry, Finland invested in higher education, with a view to
the society of tomorrow. In the last five years, Finland has held first place on the
World Economic Forum’s list of the most competitive countries. Finland uses the
second most on research and development, and ranks first on the OECD’s ranking of educational performance. The report reveals the secret behind the Finnish
results in education, and gives a unique insight in to what can be achieved when
the will to change is there.
BEST PRACTICE: DENMARK – FLEXICURITY
The design of the Danish labor market has gotten a serious revival. The rest of
the world is impressed with and interested in how we have managed to combine
a great degree of labor market flexibility, which benefits business life and the
economy, while ensuring a great deal of security for employees. In the report, we
describe the flexicurity model and the reason why foreign delegations have lined
up in recent years to hear more about the model that is over 100 years old.
NEWS: Receive the report in English. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies member report is published four times a year – now both in Danish and
English. All employees in CIFS member companies can request free reports. If
you are uncertain if your company or organization is a member, consult the list of
member companies on the back cover of this issue of FO/futureorientation. The
next member report, Family and Everyday Life 2017, will be published in early
December 2006.
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY - By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte Larsen
These two management styles describe many of the facets
that are used to describe Scandinavian management style. A
leadership style that thinks strategically long term, has an eye
for the employees’ personal development, and is strongly relation-oriented. When managers are tested for basic personality
traits, studies show that the extroversion and conscientious
behavior indicate who is the good manager.
Interestingly enough, these are the traits that are emphasized when Scandinavian management is discussed, which
is especially characterized by strongly relation-oriented and
conscientious behavior. In that connection, one could assert
that Scandinavian culture helps promote qualities that are
positive in connection to management. That is not to say that
Scandinavians are born managers, but the Scandinavians who
are born to be managers are possibly helped by a culture that
promotes these traits.
Future threats and challenges
The most serious threat for someone practicing Scandinavian
management can be the inclination to fall into laissez faire
management. While a laissez faire mood among the staff is the
most optimal for creativity, it is paradoxically a very de-motivating form of management. Employees want independence
and a creative organization with freedom and responsibility,
but in practice, too much freedom can be destructive for an
organization. Laissez faire management is, fully in line with
modern management philosophy, characterized by offering
greater freedom, but the laissez faire manager often forgets to
manage in an attempt to be friends with everyone. A characteristic of laissez-faire managers is that they delegate responsibility and authority not to improve the business, but to get out
of managing. They bury themselves in paperwork, are conflictshy, have no clear goals for the company, which means there is
no clear direction. For employees, it means there is less group
cohesion, less concentration on work and lower quality
If other countries would learn from Scandinavia, they
must build understanding that Scandinavian management is
more about relation-oriented management that the flat organization. One cannot create a flat organization without compensating for the strongly hierarchical structure with an equivalent
relation-oriented effort. Democratic management differentiates
itself from laissez faire management by, among other things,
following up on delegating tasks, and ensuring employees meet
the standards. Studies have shown that managers who advance
most quickly were more relation-oriented and goal-oriented in
their management style. The balance for Scandinavian managers is, therefore, is managing to create a mood of autonomy,
where the employee has freedom within marked areas, without
that independence degrading to the employee feeling left to
his own devices. Scandinavian management style appears to
be ideal to lead the workers of the future, but it is a demanding
management style, where the manager appears more as a personal coach than a traditional management figure.
Management practice varies with the economy. When
business is good, the soft values are ascendant, and in reces-
sions, management tightens up. The increasing international
competition could mean that there will be pressure to maximize labor productivity. Scandinavian managers judge themselves to be less goal-oriented than, for example, American
managers, according to a survey by MandagMorgen and
Øresundbroen. The American management style can, therefore, be expected to make inroads in recession, or when the
global competition is marked more strongly.
Scandinavian managers also predict that we will see
more of this bottom-line focused management style. The
advantage is that Scandinavians may become more goal
oriented. The disadvantage is that in the long term it may
undermine the management style that both Scandinavians
and management philosophers around the world increasingly
believe is a clear competitive advantage. If a more Americaninspired management model makes inroads, we will probably
see grater use of more measurable management stools with
clear payoffs for the employees who perform. But in that connection, managers must be aware that even if that increases
productivity, it is not a management method that can be used
to lead knowledge workers in a company that must survive
by being creative, because studies show that management
style creates more ideas, but of poorer quality.
Managers and companies who believe that innovation
is the way forward should think carefully. Managing is obviously easier when one can document quarterly improvements.
The middle manager is obviously better equipped at salary
negotiations when he can show he has optimized, with measurable efficiency results at hand. However, just because it is
easier and less complicated to manage does not mean that
it is better in the long term. It is not necessarily the way to
create an environment for a labor force that must be changeready and creative.
The challenge for the managers of the future, in
Scandinavia and elsewhere, is to strike a balance between a
strongly relation-oriented management, where the focus is on
the employee being taken care of, happy and motivated to be
able to perform, and a strong profit focus. Close personal contact between manager and employee will probably become
even more important than it is today. The understanding of
when to pressure workers and when to back off, may make
the difference between a worker who can perform far above
target or collapse with stress.
If the Nordic/Scandinavian countries can successfully
continue to be innovative in their labor market policy, and
if Scandinavian managers can resist pressures to take a
shortsighted view, we are well on our way into the future.
However, it requires more than that: we must also be able
to integrate other ways of thinking and managing in the
Scandinavian management style. Read more in the article
”Challenge from the East” to gain insight into this perspective.
TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN is a market analyst the Copenhagen Institute from
Futures Studies, [email protected], MARTIN KRUSE is a research assistant at CIFS,
[email protected], and GITTE LARSEN is editor of FO/futureorientation, [email protected] .
55
By Gert Holmgaard Nielsen
Challenge from the East
China is the market of the future. In
theory, it has been for the past couple of
centuries. Now it’s a reality. Western companies need to take a close look at Chinese
business and management cultures if they
are to have any hope of long-term success
in such a culturally foreign market. One of
the most important challenges is to learn
how to use both halves of the brain.
Trade between China and Europe has never been greater than
it is today, but China is a difficult market. Many Western
business executives visiting the country have, repeatedly,
experienced the feeling of crashing into The Great Wall of
China when negotiating with Chinese businessmen. Just
as many individuals stationed in China have had the same
experiences when they communicate with Chinese employees
working under them.
Fang Xiaohui, or Dr. Tony Fang as he prefers to be called,
is a lecturer at Stockholm University. He recently held a seminar in Beijing for Chinese employees of Nordic companies in
China. He touched upon a widespread inside joke about how
Western businessmen do not always understand a Chinese “no.”
The problem is: the Chinese rarely answer directly with a no
”Yanjiu, yanjiu”
A Swedish businessman phoned a Chinese organization,
which could become a future customer, to hear about the possibility of collaboration. Before the conversation got going,
the Chinese blurted a question:
“Do you know me?”
“No,” said the man, “but ... “
“Do I know you?”
“No, but ... “
56
“Do I know someone who you know?”
The Western businessman could not answer affirmatively.
Afterwards, he got the chance to speak his piece. The Chinese
executive listened politely to a suggestion about a mutual
business project, and promised he would look into the matter
and get back to the man. Nothing happened.
“Yanjiu, yanjiu” means, “we’ll look into it,” and virtually
means “no” in Chinese, says Tony Fang. China is a society
with little trust in strangers or the system. On the other hand,
great trust is placed in people they know. So, in China you
get to know each other before doing business with each other.
When sitting in negotiations with Chinese business
partners, the thing to do—generally speaking—is to forget
everything you learned at home. The Chinese respect and
trust people they know and mistrust those they don’t know. It
pays to take the time to establish a trusted relationship, and
that is why “no” is a no-no. For someone from the West, it is
a process that demands patience. “In China the signing of a
contract is simply the beginning of the relationship between
the partners,” Fang emphasizes.
Individualization in Chinese
When a Westerner is given the task of managing Chinese personnel, then it’s about getting them to forget about what they
have learned at home. “When we hire new people, they learn
within the first couple of weeks to think about what they
themselves mean about things, and not what they believe the
boss means,” says Johan Björksten, a Swede.
Björksten, founder and leader of Eastwei Relations, has
lived in China for the past 12 years, but paid frequent visits
to the country between 1986 and 1994. He speaks fluent
Mandarin. “They learn to offer their opinions here, and discover they won’t be fired for doing so,” he ascertains. That is
the harsh reality of a Chinese company; if you criticize the
boss, you are fired. And if you separate yourself from the
flock and take an initiative, you also risk losing your job.
Just as everything else is changing in China, however,
this practice will undoubtedly also become a victim of rampant modernization in China. Fang indicates that China is
developing a welfare system, and that the labor market is
open and competitive. Therefore, individual creativity will
become increasingly appreciated.
This does not necessarily mean it will be an easy transition for Chinese employees. In the Swedish company IKEA,
”When you are used to waiting on and taking orders
from a superior, it can be extremely difficult
to make the transition into being allowed to take
the initiative for offering new ideas.”
a lot is done to inform new employees about business values.
The first day on the job, they are given a book that tells them
they do not simply exist for IKEA, but that IKEA also exists
for them. IKEA founder, Ingvar Kamprad, has drawn up a
series of bon mots, one of them being: everybody makes mistakes—except those who are asleep.
Action and experience
Writing a fine book and offering fancy words is not enough.
It’s action that counts if Chinese employees are to be convinced. In Beijing earlier this year, the business was being
moved from a site in Madian to newly-built, larger facilities
near Siyuanqiao—IKEA’s next-largest outlet, after Stockholm.
Hao Jia, personnel manager at the store, remembers an
episode when a newly-hired young woman was helping to
assemble furniture for a display in the new store. She happened to assemble a piece incorrectly. It broke and had to be
thrown away. She cried, because she was afraid she would be
punished for making an error, Hao recalls. Despite the fact
that she was informed from the start that IKEA employees
need not worry about making mistakes, but are expected to
learn from their mistakes so they wouldn’t be repeated, she
was still afraid.
In such a situation, the reaction of management is
important. If the woman is told the company has lost money
because of her, she will never believe the theory she learned
when she was hired. She was naturally informed that she had
made a mistake, but was reassured when she was told she
was new, was doing a good job and that she simply needed
to gain more experience. She was told to continue assembling
the pieces, but also to be aware of where she had erred in
the first place, to concentrate, and to ask for help from experienced co-workers. With this, she learned what it means to
learn from one’s mistakes.
Active communication
When you are used to waiting on and taking orders from a
superior, it can be extremely difficult to make the transition
into being allowed to take the initiative for offering new
ideas. This is one of the situations IKEA is trying to avoid,
through active communication with employees.
“We have always been told by our parents and teachers that we should not think for ourselves, but to strictly
do what those in authority say we should do,” says Hao. In
other words, you never ask your superiors about anything, for
that would be interpreted as confrontation and show lack of
respect. That is exactly why IKEA uses a highly visible system
to demonstrate good example.
“Our managers—no matter how busy they are--hold a
personal meeting with each of their employees once a month,”
says Hao. At the meetings they discuss the personal goals
of the employee, and how things are progressing, they talk
about skills and competency evaluation, and about whether
the employee needs help from superiors. The employee is
also urged to give feedback to superiors.
Each year, every IKEA around the world does an
employee survey where employees have the chance to evaluate the company as an employer and evaluate their superiors.
“I’m not sure Chinese companies can see the value in letting
employees evaluate their superiors,” Hao points out.
It is a long arduous task to ensure that Chinese employees understand the rules of a foreign and more open form
of management. “It’s as if there are no rules,” admits Gao
Min, executive vice-president of Norwegian-owned Norwex.
He quickly reverts to his Chinese roots and tells, ”There is
an old Chinese expression that says the best rule is no rule.
That stems from Taoism and is around 2000 years old. It
means, when you are unable to learn the rules for something, then that’s simply the way it’s meant to be and you
must respect that.”
The problem of (mis)understanding is mutual. It can
be very frustrating for a Western manager, who believes an
assignment is being carried out, but then discovers nothing at
all has been done because the Chinese subordinate who was
given the assignment does not dare to report that problems
have arisen.
Building bridges between the EU and China
This past summer, the EU and China embarked on a major
initiative to help European and Chinese executives build
bridges across the cultural gap. Managers Exchange and
Training Program (METP) was launched with €17.2 million in
funding from the EU and €5.8 million from China. The aim
of the program is to send 200 young business people from
export industries to China over the next four years. They will
get intensive courses in Mandarin and Chinese culture: 10
months of language studies followed by three months as an
“apprentice” at a Chinese company or organization.
Just as many young Chinese business people will get the
chance to come to the EU. Their program is planned as, seven
57
CHALLENGE FROM THE EAST - By Gert Holmgaard Nielsen
weeks of management training followed by an apprenticeship.
The lucky ones chosen—Chinese and European—will receive
a grant to cover all education and living expenses.
“It’s an initiative that appeared at the right time,” says
Franz Jessen, who is second-in-command at the European
Commission’s “embassy” in Beijing. “Especially in light of the
fact that Chinese trade with the EU has risen by nearly 70
percent during the past five years. There is a clear need for
both sides to develop an understanding of each other’s business culture.”
As a rule, Nordic companies try to introduce—with success, but not without problems—a management structure that
is somewhat egalitarian and more open than the Chinese are
used to. In these cases, the Chinese are the once who have to
do the learning, but Jessen says both sides need to face some
demands. Psychologist Kirsten Høgh Thøgersen confirms
there is a strong, mutual need for this. She has lived periodically in China for a total of 10 years and now has her own
practice in Shanghai.
She and the American anthropologist Nandani Lynton
recently publicized the results of a study of the differences
between Chinese and Western executives’ ways of thinking
in negotiation situations. The conclusion among the subjects
surveyed was that Western companies with success in China
had all understood how to transform over to the Chinese
way of thinking. Tom Behrens-Sørensen, the head of Maersk
Sealand in Beijing, is one of them.
Problems dis-solved
executives’ experiences with the Chinese method. An executive they interviewed relates the following:
“We recently had some incredibly difficult meetings
with our joint-venture partner. Later, they refused to meet
with a member of our board. We were in a situation where
we had to inform them that headquarters was worried, and
that we believed the relationship had been ruined. To our
astonishment, they did not reply. Instead, they invited us to
attend a performance of Carmen, along with their CEO. My
colleague believed it was a cheap way to bribe us. But that’s
not the way they think. In their eyes, we were sensible,
therefore, not so easy to talk to. They had to figure out what
to do with us. They thawed the icy relationship by giving
us a pleasant experience. Then their CEO asked if our CEO
could help the head of a theater company enter a cooperation with a German opera house. Of course, he had done
his homework; he knew our CEO was an opera lover. From
our point of view, all would be well if it was a success, and
our relations improved. If it didn’t work, then they would
attempt something else. Not that it would solve the problem;
it would simply move it just a bit.”
Does that sound like a convoluted process? Thøgersen
has no doubt about the Chinese method working. “They move
faster than we think they do,” she says. “We say what we
think, but we don’t know what they’re thinking. It’s applied
Zen Buddhism. They are very aware of what goes on around
them. And they are incredibly well prepared. We cannot keep
up if we don’t learn to think intuitively,” she opines.
Courses in intuitive management
Chinese executives think holistically and practically. This is
demanding, for they use both halves of the brain as opposed The problem is, there are not very many courses in intuitive
management. Until now, it has mostly been learning by doing
to the process of thinking logically as we do in Europe. We
for Western businessmen operating in China.
activate only the left side. Chinese do not take one individual problem at a time, and they don’t necessarily strive
There isn’t any indication that the EU’s METP grant
addresses the issue of increasing understanding of the
to find a direct solution. The route to a solution can wind
Chinese intuitive method. It is, however, important to learn
along a series of detours, with one reason being: to avoid
the method. “It can determine whether you do well or not,”
personal confrontations. While a Western executive will
says Thøgersen. She and Lynton are examining the possibilmove directly toward an outcome, obstacles in China are
ity of developing a training program. The first group to begin
best overcome indirectly.
activities under the METP grant start in February 2007.
“The advantage of this method is speed,” says Thøgersen.
“They quickly construct a building or move a factory, and they
Recommended reading: Nandani Lynton and Kirsten Høgh Thøgersen, “How
work as effectively as ants. Naturally, sometimes things go
China Transforms an Executive’s Mind,” in Organizational Dynamics, Vol.35, nr.2,
wrong—maybe more wrong than they do in our world—but
pp. 170-181. www.TonyFang.com
things progress rapidly and there are a lot of hands pitching in.”
What a Westerner might interpret as the Chinese veerGERT HOLMGAARD NIELSEN is a Beijing-based freelance journalist who works
for the Danish news agency Ritzaus Bureau’s Beijing Office.
ing away from problems is really a manifestation of how the
Chinese work using all their senses. They evaluate a situation,
they consider the counterpart in negotiations, and at all costs
they avoid confrontations that can stop a project in its tracks.
In the West, we face a problem and solve it; In China, they
face a problem and dis-solve it, is how Thøgersen puts it. “By
focusing on a number of smaller, practical details, they dissolve the problems,” she says.
To illustrate, she tells about an episode that is also mentioned in her and Nandani Lynton’s article about Western
58
By Sean Pillot de Chenecey
‘07 Man
A growing body of opinion from men is
that the age-old binary, narrow definition of maleness is out, and that a DIY
approach to masculinity based upon
respect, decency and intelligence is in.
But not all male literature is apparently
agreeing. So what are the real male
trends in 2007?
In the US, New York magazine recently published a piece
regarding ‘Grups’ (grown-ups) where they talked of the irritation these ‘Grup’ men have with the ‘meaningless’ consumer
youth culture that exists now. They also resent being talked
down to by younger guys who ‘haven’t earned the right’
- hence quotes about how they find it distasteful that the
popular culture of their youth, in which they once invested so
much raw emotion, is enjoyed by younger people today as a
form of kitsch: “That pisses me off. They’ve created no fresh
culture of their own. All the recent or current music is so
derivative. Oasis sounded like the Beatles, the Dandy Warhols
sound like the Stones and Kasabian sound like the Happy
Mondays,” the article states.
Three books are currently appearing in just about every maletrends presentation: The Alphabet of Manliness by Maddox,
Masculinity by Harvey Mansfield and Marian Salzman’s The
Future of Men. But which gives the clearest pointer towards
‘real’ male trends in the near future?
When youth culture was for real
A bullying tone
In the best-selling US title The Alphabet of Manliness by
Maddox (a pseudonym), he talks of the A-Z of modern man
in stereotypical US ‘jock’ culture terminology i.e. phallic
aggression, violence, contempt for animals, women and other
cultures, intimidating rhetoric, obscure penile references,
etc. including ‘ass-kicking, copping a feel, eating hot sauce,
pirates, road rage and yelling…’
Indeed reflecting (at least some of) this attitude has been
a massively successful approach for the publishing industry.
Young men’s magazines still tend to have a bullying tone that
promoted low aspirations - where work, fatherhood & homosexuality are all taboo. In Masculinity and Men’s Lifestyle
Magazines by Bethan Benwell, she talks of a ‘lad media’ that
promotes muscular/working class values - sexism, exclusive
male friendship & homophobia. Bethan Benwell writes: “The
style is knowing and ironic, with men being immune from
criticism. They’re not interested in work, preferring to drink,
party, holiday and watch football.”
Having a purely hedonistic and ‘surface deep’ attitude
is what enrages many older men when they observe the current crop of youth tribes. An ongoing trend for new bands
to look and sound exactly like those from the past – with
every cool fashion reference learned seemingly by rote by
new bands and their followers - is causing friction amongst
those men in their thirties and forties that refuse to let go of
‘their’ youth culture.
Yet, in the UK, one of the most interesting trends in male
culture relates to a peace now breaking out in the ‘age-wars’,
a trend led by the (genuinely) young. Simply put, getting
older no longer automatically throws up the barriers between
generations that it used to – at least according to youth. With
youth culture now ‘officially’ more than fifty years old, a
growing realization amongst young people and the youth
press is that the original teenagers (who are now reaching
retirement age) may well include their older relatives and
neighbors – who can tell them all about what it was like first
time round when youth culture was ‘for real’.
The vast numbers of new guitar bands, currently shown
by those like The Young Knives and The View etc., shows no
sign of abating, and youth culture continues to obsessively
look to the past for ‘cool’ inspiration, but in what is often
derided as a ‘surface deep’ level where context is forgotten
and ‘the look’ is everything. It’s often been said that the fashion industry trivializes everything it touches, and with music
per se now being dismissed by many cultural commentators
as purely being another arm of the vast entertainment industry (i.e. about as ‘edgy’ as the current favorite video game)
perhaps the agitprop music-based movements of old really
have had their day. Revolt into style indeed.
Dead man living
So ‘cool’ is lightweight and meaningless, argues Harvey
Mansfield, where in his new book Masculinity, he calls for a
resurgence of ‘Real Men’ and strong and positive male role
models. He talks of the US ideal of manliness being a totally
confused one, with the answer – that most Americans give
when asked to define a ‘real man’ – being ‘John Wayne’, a
male icon who’s been dead for over a quarter of a century.
59
‘07 MAN - By Sean Pillot de Chenecey
Mansfield suggests the renewal of themes like Public Duty,
Honor, Moral Obligation, Emotional Restraint and Fatherhood
are the answer to the crisis in masculinity caused by the rise
of absent fathers, broken families, delinquent sons and the
disastrous collapse of paternal authority.
Many support his view – especially amongst the
Republican right – i.e. those like the US ‘Men’s Activism’
movement where one of their mantras or ‘Warrior Goals’ (as
found on the website: mensactivism.org) is to ‘Become a better father’. Elsewhere, a reaction to these ‘dangerous modern
times’ (where, to quote Francis Fukyama “Fear, Uncertainty
and Doubt” rule) is shown in male-icon terms by the renewed
respect for ‘proper men doing manly things’ as illustrated by
the blue collar rescuers of 9/11 and a new mood for ‘Manly
Assertiveness’.
Meaning and happiness
Indeed every trend researcher working on male consumer
projects hears men in focus groups or depth interviews
complaining of a feeling of rootlessness - something that
Mansfield puts down to living in a pop culture society and
a desire for testing themselves. A direct knock-on effect of
this has been shown by the huge popularity of books and
programs that deal with social history, currently illustrated by
an obsession with our great grandfathers generation and the
First World War, consumed by real young people, and not
merely war obsessives who’ll happily read or watch anything
that comes with a few guaranteed explosions.
Yet the opposite of the resurgent traditional type of
masculinity required in Mansfields ‘real world of harsh
reality’ and certainly the opposite of being constricted by
a 1950’s style binary version of it, is demonstrated by the
huge popularity of those obsessed with living second or
online lives via role play games like ‘Everquest’ and ‘World
of Warcraft’. Not that these are purely the domain of (terminally dull) men, as shown by the 40 percent female following of the equally uninspiring ‘City of Heroes’ where a
‘hermitizim for the win’ clarion call proudly proclaims the
benefits of never forsaking the comfort blanket of your PC,
or indeed actually leaving the house.
What’s remarkable in cultural terms here is the methodology of achieving success in these games. Namely people working together using their individual skills to gain
something useful for each one of themselves – a utopia that
sounds at odds perhaps to the day-to-day reality of mutual
suspicion and subterfuge for most office workers.
And it’s also in day-to-day office life that we see trends
illustrating real signs of major, structural change where happiness is of prime importance. Cultural studies tell us that, in
day-to-day terms, masculinity was merely about production,
work and responsibility. Old stereotypes of (male) work were
often summed up by statements like ‘men deny themselves
in order to provide for their wives and families’ where work
was essentially something to be endured and was the premier location of a mans expression of his individuality. So
60
a continuing move towards adding pleasure via having ‘the
job of choice’ is also a driver of the modern man. In his book
The Happiness Hypothesis, Professor Martin Seligman of the
University of Pennsylvania, the father of positive psychology
suggest that the happiness formulae can be boiled down to:
pleasure + engagement + meaning = happiness.
The new maleness: the urban knight
So, for “‘07 Man” perhaps what’s emerging is summed up by
Marian Salzman in The Future of Men where she discusses a
masculinity that combines the best of traditional manliness
(strength, honor, character) with positive traits traditionally
associated with females (nurturance, communicativeness,
cooperation). A mode of living that is personalized and gender neutral or ambivalent. A lifestyle that emphasizes higherquality emotional and physical pleasures - male pleasures
- that comes from knowing oneself and ones potential.
Marian Salzman forecasts the future of masculinity to be
one involving renewed respect, a broadening of what’s masculine, men adopting female traits and accepting differences
by letting everyone play the game. She agrees that men are
indeed requesting and adopting new ways of living and working, and that the foundations and aspirations of quality and
success are being redefined.
And it’s this issue of redefinition that is setting the tone
for men as we look to the near future. A growing body of
opinion from men is that the age-old binary, narrow definition of maleness is out, and that a DIY approach to masculinity based upon respect, decency and intelligence is in. For the
modern city living, office bound man, this perhaps means
waving goodbye to the urban warrior and saying hello to the
urban knight.
SEAN PILLOT DE CHENECEY is a researcher & trends analyst based in the UK.
www.captaincrikey.com
By Christine Lind Ditlevsen
Can women play the game
at executive level?
The ability to play will be a professional
qualification In the future. Playing will
become a greater part of our working
life in these times where creativity is in
high demand. But what does it mean to
play? Meet the researcher and the future researcher in a conversation about
men’s and women’s different ways to
play and read about the consequences
for the future labor market.
Playing is essential for people throughout life. Adults play
almost as much as children – it is just called something
else. We play when we do something that is exciting and
fun and that we cannot leave alone: when we want to create a good mood or when we pursue leisure activities like
sports, music, collection mania or another hobby, or when
we meet at a party or other social event. We play because
we get a kick out of it, just like children can be excited by
a good game that absorbs them. But there is a difference
between how women and men let themselves be absorbed
and how they play.
Until now, women’s games have been hidden in aesthetics, shopping and in conversation. At first glance, these
activities are not seen as games, because men historically
define the framework and conditions. Traditional masculine games are competitive games, chance games and
“rush games.” Today, games belong mostly to private life,
but as new social media, the network way of thinking and
individualism make headway in the market and workplace,
women’s games and skills needed to play them will be
good cards to hold.
Why women don’t play
The table is nicely set with tea and freshly baked buns. But
we do not have time to enjoy them because we are heavily engaged in a conversation about female truckers. We
have met to discuss why women don’t play. The host is
Thessa Jensen, lecturer in digital media at the Institute
for Communication at Aalborg University and a dedicated
researcher of society’s relationship to and use of playing and
games, with special focus on interactive digital media. The
guest is the author, a futurist at Copenhagen Institute for
Futures Studies. I am very interested in knowing if I am right
in my claim that women do not play.
I ask Jensen whether women play when they work and
if they can handle using the game’s qualities in their professional life.
“If we are to apply the four ways to play (see box about
play on page 65) to working life, it is obvious that Alea, Agôn
and Illinix are masculine ways of playing at work. It is men
who play in the share market, invest and put money into
projects. The competition game, Agôn, is also for men. The
woman as a rule does not compete at all, and if she does, she
must act like a man and be completely at the mercy of men’s
terms. So she is not characterized as a woman. It is just the
same with Illinix. Who is it that lets it tingle in their tummy?
It is the entrepreneur, who without much planning borrows
one million and jumps into an adventure. Women start very
small and very safe, preferably with some art & craft, and
with both feet planted firmly on the ground,” says Jensen.
The woman fits well into the last mode of playing,
which is called Mimicry or mimic game. Indeed, the idea
of copying something and letting oneself be absorbed by
an already existing agenda is women’s specialty. Maybe
that is why the top female manager is a rarity? Already
from childhood, dollhouses and “Dad, Mum and child” are
favorite games for small girls. In these types of games,
the “as if” way of thinking is used to the maximum
degree. Even though playing is fundamental for people
and society, so too are many of the historically traditional
man-games. In other words, women mostly play games
that have different starting points to men. Chance games,
competition and, perhaps, the “rush games” are classic
adrenalin-pumping, targeted games that often appeal more
to men than women.
But when girls play, and we say women don’t play, is it
because we quickly stop being girls? That is the case according to toy makers. Jensen says that girls quickly stop playing. This happens already at the age of eight, while boys first
stop at the age of 12, when they continue wit, for example,
advanced computer games. After girls have turn 8, they no
longer need to develop new games and props, because they
enter the adult world by continuing to imitate it through
fashion, chat rooms and mobile phones. In other words, they
no longer play with traditional toys.
61
“In the future,
maybe people will
– freed up from their job
as work – become the
constant homo ludens,
whose life is invention:
The human who
plays all his life.”
62
CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?- By Christine Lind Ditlevsen
Ability to play at work
The creative industries’ economy has moved playing as a
cultural creator into every day life in such forms as computer
games, and into working life in the form of demands for creativity and innovative thinking made on employees. Playing
is therefore no longer something that can be isolated from
what we otherwise do – playing has actually become a part of
normal life.
Working life places great demands on the individual
employee’s performance. It is not enough to spend most of
one’s hours awake at work, deliver on time and overall do
what is expected. The employees must be able to challenge
his/her own limits, to think “out of the box,” be creative in
his/her work processes and demonstrate that he/she can
understand and use the workplace’s unspoken rules of the
game. Women have, since they began seriously participating
in work outside home in the 1960s, have worked primarily
in production, services and in offices. These roles invite little
independence or creativity. With new demands also on these
types of jobs, which are still mainly filled by women, our ability to play at work is seriously put to the test.
The workforce’s demands on women and men respectively are linked to society’s basic needs for and perception of
play. One example is the transport sector, which needs people,
and where now there is talk of bringing in women. The effect
is not, however, as positive as one might think. A common
phenomenon is that when women begin to take jobs traditionally filled by men, both the status of the job and its salary
fall – as with the case of physicians. It is tempting to cast an
eye at Callois’ Mimicry concept here. Thessa Jensen believes
that it is because women are very good at slipping into existing expectations and living up to the role she expects must
be hers. This means that she does not make demands or
challenge limits the way men do. Another example is salary
negotiation, where men are much better at asking for a raise.
A third example is that more women than men break down
with stress. Women do not, to the same extent as men, say no
to demands they cannot meet – they just try harder.
Maybe we still live with the tradition that women do
not get the chance to do much? Not even in playing either.
We live with an attitude that women must be happy if they
can get the same jobs as men can. Is this possibly an expression of the fear of failure, which results in a victim mentality? Or is it because women dare not ask for more in salary
because they think: “I already have so little responsibility
and pay, and I am about to die of stress. How would it ever
work out?”
Thessa Jensen responds, “Yes I think so. I also want to
ask why it is not the man who works part-time when things
are falling apart. If a woman had more spare time, would she
then use it to take time off? Women are driven by a double
sided problem which consists equally as much of poor selfconfidence and as well as a belief that everything will fall
apart if we are not there.”
According to social discourse, men have always had more
important work than women. He has had more responsibility
and has earned more. His role as the provider has been more
important than the woman’s role, which in the beginning
could best be described as self-fulfilling. Therefore, he has
been able to take it as a matter of course that he has the right
to knock off when he was not at work - and actually seriously
relax without tidying up or planning. The woman has always
on that account been in debt, and so it was she who was
domestic when both were off work. It was also in the home
that the woman could demonstrate the best she could. This is
how it was in our grandparents’ time and our grandmothers
taught our mothers this. So if women do not play, it is maybe
because they are busy working outside the home and inside
the home after work.
But what is it that makes it so unattractive for the man
to be involved in cleaning and cooking? “The man doesn’t
find this attractive because cleaning and cooking are routine
jobs. He is not allowed to play there,” says Jensen. If the man
is to take an interest in cleaning and cooking, the jobs have
to be an experiment. Would it be attractive if he could make
his own bacteria exterminating Molotov cocktail and vacuum
with a machine that is as noisy as an F16 and which displays
the processes in the vacuum through a transparent lid?
Thessa Jensen continues: “I have not yet met a man who
has said: “What! Isn’t the kitchen cleaned up? We can’t go
anywhere until the kitchen is cleaned up. The woman makes
these demands – woman to woman. Our mothers and sisters
raise us to believe that we must handle all the practical things
before we start anything else. Women do not give themselves
the chance to relax. But if the man can sit and relax one hour
in front of the computer, so can the woman.”
Why are we so afraid of what our female peers think
about us? Maybe the next step for equality of the sexes is
freedom from other women’s expectations?
Women play in the home
All surveys show that it is women who buy things for and
decorate the home, and it is the woman who sets the overall
guidelines and timetables, and who organizes big events in
the home. The woman is the home’s project leader.
Of the project groups that Thessa Jensen advises at the
university, the pure female groups work the best. Right from
the beginning they have the framework and role split worked
out and they normally end up with a good grade for the
project. The male groups are polarized: One kind consists
of unstructured guys who sit and yell about how cool this
project is and how fantastic their performance of tasks will
be. They typically end up with low grades. The other type is
with guys who really don’t have a grip on anything but who
follow a wild idea and they are awarded now and then with
the highest grade. “I experience that the male students play
their way through their studies. They practically throw themselves into something with a kind of “let’s see what comes out
63
of this” like attitude, whilst the women know what they want What one looks at and dreams about when shopping could
and are focused,” says Tessa Jensen.
possibly be considered as things one really doesn’t need,
like luxury goods. So shopping is often viewed as frivolous.
Can it be that men lack will power and women lack
vision? We agree that women love responsibility and hate it
We do not shop to buy a new washing machine or a car.
when men do not take it. Women need to have control of eveShopping is actually not necessarily about buying, but much
rything and so we can conclude that at least part of a woman’s
more about dreaming. “We have a research group at the unigame must be linked with control. While we take one last look
versity that works on aesthetics, advertising and shopping.
at women’s work in the home, it becomes evident to us that in
One group consisted of middle-aged men discussing how a
addition to a lot of social compulsive behavior, biological clock
shopping center should be designed in terms of aesthetic
arrangements and remainders from the battle of the sexes, the
experiences etc. Instead, they sat and discussed how women
woman simply gets a lot of pleasure from running a household
spend heaps of money, and they actually don’t do that. They
– in decorating and making things around her beautiful.
spend time,” says Jensen.
Do women play when they arrange an inviting cheese
Women spend time investigating what is available
platter? Do we play when we make sure the pillows, lights
– finding out where one has to go to find what is interesting.
and curtains match? According to Thessa Jensen, that is
Women also spend time dreaming, talking and building relaexactly what we do. It is just that much more complicated to
tions. All of this has to be considered in the shopping center
call aesthetics a game, because such a game is not about copy- if it is to be a success. It sounds a bit like we are close to
ing, getting tingles in our tummy or winning.
women’s number two game. It is possibly here where women
can experiment and go beyond barriers.
“Broadly speaking, women are just not cut out for competitive society, because we can’t compete on our key compeDo women play when they shop? “Yes, I actually believe
tence. We cannot be challenged at being the best to give birth they do,” answers Jensen. She believes that when women
to children,” says Jensen. One could say that what women
shop they step out of the controlling and overview-like role.
compete about today is who the perfect woman is, so in this
Who said that shops cannot be pink and full of candy
way we participate in a competition. But it happens only on
and magazines? Why does a computer bag have to black?”
at a meta-plan level, because there are no agreed rules, and
she asks. On the other hand, I think and ask: Why does it
many of those who participate are not aware of it themselves. have to be so fluffy because it is for women? Jensen answers:
“Yes, and most importantly: It is not a game, because it is not “Why not? Why can’t we make a pink difference and still be
a question of “as if”. Women must be perfect and we take it
able to demand to be taken seriously?”
dead seriously,” emphasizes Jensen.
Conversation as a game
One could claim that there is something called aesthetic
When little girls play together, they use all the time on setcompetitions. When women ‘flash’ surplus energy by serving
ting up the framework and definitions, whilst the boys jump
homemade orange marmalade, having home-embroidered
straight into the situation (the battle, the hunt, the race). Can
pillows and showing off the children’s room which is smart
and spotless, it can be compared with playing with a “life-size” one claim without lying that women are terrible at playing,
because we are so good at keeping house and managing?
doll’s house.
It must be the feminists who stick their necks out. Just
“Society is kept going by consumption,” says Jensen, who
adds, “and aestheticizing is very much linked to consumption. because women’s requirement or need for a well-groomed
home is different from what men demand – and is most
The aestheticizing of our home and ourselves requires that
likely based on aesthetics rather than functionality – it is
we follow trends. This requires that we have the latest design
still a demand. “The woman reverts to an image of herself as
of placemats. To be aestheticizing has become an industry,
which constantly leads us on to new trends and shows us new oppressed when she focuses on being taken seriously by the
man instead of by the criteria she stands for, which are not
‘toys’. It is in this way that our game is constantly described
met. And we have not even seriously spoken about the guilty
by society.” In other words: Women play in the home, but it
conscience related to thinking of oneself first rather than letdoes not resemble play in the male defined form.
ting the children or the man be the first priority.”
Women play when they shop
Having a guilty conscience about the children is caused
Shopping is the favorite pastime of many women. “Women by two things: We do not have enough time and the relatake shopping seriously. It is a free space which does not
tionship to our children is not, like in the past, based on the
have to be rushed by the man because he wants to go to
parent as the raiser, safe haven and financial source, but
Bauhaus,” says Jensen. In Germany, there are bars where
about the parent as the love source. And you can’t ever give
one leaves the man and pays 10 Euro. Inside there is the
enough love, because it should be limitless. So this is where
possibility to do some handicraft, read the newspaper or
the involvement of children – and playing with them – comes
watch sport and he can have something to eat. The woman
to resemble events. Every time mum or dad have a spare
can simultaneously take the time necessary to buy grocerhour it must be used to give love and attention to the child,
ies or shop.
and one does not therefore use the time to carry newspapers
64
downstairs or to bake some bread. One “carries newspapers
down” and “bakes bread” so that the child can experience this
together with the parent. In this way, we create event families. There is never any time that is allowed to just go by.
“While we know that it is the woman who is responsible
for arrangements, the maintenance of the home etc., it doesn’t
leave much time for playing,” points out Jensen, who continues,
“the woman is both the project leader and the communication
director of the home. The women are relation creators and
maintain them: the family dinners, the birthdays, the dinners
with other couples, festivities etc. When the woman communicates, it is to keep the network alive. Conversations were the traditional society’s news mediums and survival networks, whilst
today they still give the woman’s life cohesion. Conversation
creates a link between all the functions the woman has.”
What do women do when they finally knock off work?
They talk. Men meet for a beer or sport. Women meet to talk.
It is a female thing to maintain a friendship, to talk about this
and that and mirror oneself in each other’s lives. Men’s internal sociology makes them compete. A potential conflict lies
in men’s time together because it is based on the “I am better
than you” way of thinking, whilst in women’s togetherness
there is a potential softening in the discourse and an “I am
like you” mindset. The relationship creating conversation is
a female talent. This fits well with the fact that more women
than men are employed in the branch of communication.
Thessa and I agree that conversation must be women’s third
way of playing.
WHAT IS PLAYING?
The cultural historian and play theorist Johan Huizinga studies in his book Homo
Ludens (The playing human, ed.) the role of playing within a number of cultural
phenomenons. According to him playing is “a voluntary act or function which is
played out within certain set spatial and time limits. Despite voluntariness the
game is played according to strict binding rules, is a goal in itself and is accompanied by a feeling of excitement and happiness and a sense of it being something else than normal life.” But even though playing is an intermezzo which is
not taken as seriously as the rest of life, Huizinga believes that playing however
has a bigger role in people’s existence. Playing is actually fundamental for being
a person and he writes: “It gives life fullness and color and is to an extent essential both for the individual as a biological function and for society, based on its
significance and symbolic value, and because it creates spiritual and social relations. In brief it is indispensable as a function of culture.”
According to anthropologist Gregory Bateson, a human plays by putting
inverted commas around certain actions and in this way creating an “as if space”
in which the players’ behavior is not taken seriously. Bateson points out that it is
not only the human who plays but that we – unlike our hairy relations – have the
advantage of having the possibility to describe and stage our games. We can
put words on what the game is and let the game be the discourse for many different actions. Playing is not just something that happens in the children’s room
and on the rounders (baseball-like game) field, but a part of our activities all over,
for e.g. in the form of creative behavior, games, entertaining actions and informal
togetherness.
Many other philosophers and social researchers have studied playing as
part of – or actually fundamental for – adult humans’ lives. Friedrich Siller considers for e.g. playing as an aesthetic experience - in other words, as the way we
unite the physical world with the conceptual world. But the cultural sociologist
Roger Callois follows in Huizinga’s footsteps and further develops the idea of
playing being culturally creative. Callois splits playing into four archetypes:
MEN AND WOMEN IN DANISH BUSINESS
- There are many more male entrepreneurs than female and they perform better. In a list of Denmark’s 50 wealthiest, published by Danish business magazine Berlingske Nyhedsmagasin, female entrepreneurs have not yet created
any of the country’s largest entrepreneurial successes. Out of the 50 richest
Danes there are 27 entrepreneurs who have gone on the journey from inventive entrepreneur to self-made billionaire. None of them are women.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Women’s games and working life
Women will probably never make it to the top of the knowledge economy unless they let go of their belief that they have
to be men to be allowed to play the game at executive level. On
the other hand, there are good possibilities if women use their
abilities in the world of playing – also in their working life.
In our conversations, Thessa Jensen and I have found
that women play in three ways:
1. The aestheticizing game, which today primarily occurs
in the home. These games are about conceptualizing and
managing, but also about changing something for the
better by making it more inviting, appetizing or in line
- There are significantly more male top managers – both in the public sector
and in private industry. In the new Danish municipalities women hold only
16% of the senior executive positions, i.e. board of management, including
city manager. In more than 20 of the municipalities there is not one female
senior executive and the difference in salaries between men and women
employed in the municipality is on average 13%. The Danish Employers’
Confederation showed that only 16.6% of senior executives in private industry
are women. At group management level women occupy less than one quarter
of the jobs.
- Traditional masculine branches like engineering and IT are still full of men.
Only 15% of Danish engineers are women, while 23% of the Union of
Commercial and Clerical Employees’ members employed within technical IT
areas are women. In the computer giant IBM only 25% of all employees are
women.
Source: InfoMedia
Alea or chance games (for e.g. Lotto and dice games)
Agôn or competitive games
Illinx or “rush” games (for e.g. parachuting and roller coaster riding)
Mimicry or mimicking games (for e.g. role playing)
In the chance games the idea is to win by luck. In competitions you win by being
clever. In “rush” games it’s about experiencing a rush of adrenalin. In mimicking
games one has an empathetic experience. The first two types of games distinguish themselves by both being about winning, while the later two are experience oriented.
65
with the integral whole and by having a personal influence on things.
2. The shopping game, which women play when they are
consumers and which is about jumping out of the role
as the one who has control to being like a child again in
a candy store, where the especially attractive goods are
chosen. Women delight in finding the right things for the
right occasions.
3. The conversation game. Last but not least, women also
play a more subtle game, namely a social, relationship creating, empathetic and potentially softening game:
the conversation.
Women can advantageously implement these three types of
games into workplaces and into working life. The labor market is right now seeking people with abilities to communicate
and create networks and people who have management skills
in the form of single mindedness, tact, and social drive. The
search is on for self-managing employees with an overview
and quality awareness and who have a talent for letting form
and content create a synthesis. These competencies, like
women’s ways to play, are in reality in high demand in the
labor market. They just need to be re-launched and described
as valuable, female competencies and in this way complement
the traditional virtues in care and practical functions, which
have for a long time been the image of women’s abilities.
All three types of games demonstrate that women are
clever project managers – professionally, cross-functionally and
socially. But if you look into each individual game, you find
even more fuel, which can make working life in the future run
more smoothly. The aestheticizing games indicate that women
could take responsibility for our workplaces being designed so
they are nicer to be in. As it is, people who create value in the
creative knowledge economy, employees probably also need
some other frameworks than gray offices. Maybe it should be
women who design the future’s office environments and think
about light, sound, color etc. in their entirety?
The shopping game demonstrates that women are good at
putting together teams and cross-functional project groups.
Everything indicates that the ability to have an eye for
beauty and the special, and the ability to find the right
combination of people for the right assignments, will be in
even more demand in a future where working life will be
further fragmented.
Finally, the conversation game indicates that through
their communication abilities women will have a big advantage in the future. The anarchistic consumer is already a big
challenge for the market and the development of, among
other things, the social media forces companies to enter into
very close dialogue with the world around them and to think
more in terms of establishing relationships than in managing an image. As relations are more important than positions,
women will therefore be able to seriously play the game.
Sources: ”Hvad kvinder og mænd bruger tiden til”, (Ed. “What women and men
spend time on”), Social Research Institute 2003. ”Leg fortolket for voksne”, (Ed.
“Play interpreted for adults”), Tem Frank Andersen, Aalborg University. ”Homo
Ludens, Vom Ursprung der Kultur im Spiel”, (Ed. “The cultural offspring of playing“), Rowolhlts Encyclopedia, Germany 2004). http://www.anetq.dk/undrblog/
Discussion topic: ”Hvorfor leger kvinder ikke”, (Ed. ”Why don’t women play”),
comments from 12 bloggers.
InfoMedia: ”Iværksættere: Kvinder bygger ikke imperier” (Ed. ”Entrepreneurs:
Women don’t build empires”), Danish news magazine, Berlingskes
Nyhedsmagasin November 25, 2005. ”De nye kommuner: Mænd har magten”
(Ed. The new municipalities: Men have the power”, Danish newspaper JyllandsPosten January 3, 2006. ”Døren åben for kvinderne” (Ed.”The door is open for
women”), Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllandsposten January 4, 2006.
”Status på kvindenetværk” (Ed. ”Status of women’s network”), Danish newspaper
Berlingske Tidende, March 15, 2006. ”Kvinder beslutter bedre” (Ed, ”Women
make better decisions”), Danish financial newspaper Erhvervsbladet, May 5,
2006. ”Fremtidens leder er en kvinde” (Ed. The future’s leader is a woman),
Danish financial newspaper Børsen, July 17, 2006. ”Det stærke iværksætter køn” (Ed. “The strong entrepreneurial sex”), Danish newspaper Berlingske
Tidende, July 24, 2006. ”Flere kvinder vil være ingeniører” (Ed. “More women
want to be engineers”), Danish newspaper Dagbladet Roskilde, July 29, 2006.
”Dansk Metal: Flere kvinder til it-branchen” (Ed. “Danish Metal Workers Union:
More women for IT”), Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten, August
2, 2006. ”Kvinderne tør ikke” (Ed. “Women don’t dare”), Danish newsletter
Ugebrevet A4, August 28, 2006.
CHRISTINE LIND DITLEVSEN is a religion historian and future researcher at the
Institute for Future Studies. [email protected]
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fo052006 the Megatrends Matter issue

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