Holiday Watch

Holiday Watch
Media Guide: 2010
Holiday Facts & Figures
Ta b l e of Co n t e n t s
Welcome Letter................................3
Media Alert.....................................4
Gifts: What’s the Consumer Buying?..5
Gifts: What’s Hot This Season?..........6
Holiday Fun Facts.............................7
Holiday Forcasting..........................9
Michael P. Niemira . ....................... 15
Happy Holidays
from icsc
As the 2010 holiday season approaches, the International Council of
Shopping Centers (ICSC) is pleased to provide you with our annual
Holiday Watch Media Guide.
ICSC will be releasing weekly holiday sales figures throughout the holiday season, beginning Tuesday,
November 23, 2010. The sales figures, which provide a week-over-week and year-over-year comparison, will be available on ICSC’s Holiday Watch Website: http://holiday.icsc.org at 7:45 a.m.
Once again, our Holiday Watch Media Guide contains the Hot Gifts List, Holiday Fun Facts, Holiday
Forecast and information on all holiday GAFO sales. For your reference, in this document these measures are referred to as:
•
GAFO Store Sales are sales generated at stores that specialize in department-store type
merchandise (General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessory, Furniture, and Other which includes
electronics, computers, sporting goods, music, books, hobby, office supplies, stationery and gift
stores). These data are compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
•
Non-Anchor Mall Sales are those receipts generated by non-anchor tenants at regional and
super-regional malls in the United States. These data are compiled by ICSC from a representative
sample of over 500 malls and cover stores selling apparel, furnishings, stationery/cards/gifts/novelty,
books, sporting goods/bicycles, toys/educational/hobby, personal care, jewelry, other GAFO-type
merchandise, food service and other non-GAFO merchandise and services.
•
Shopping-Center-Inclined Retail Sales are compiled from U.S. Census Bureau retail sales
data. This series includes general merchandise, apparel, furniture, electronic and other store sales
(GAFO) plus health and personal care store sales, food and beverage sales and building materials.
In addition, ICSC will be releasing the results of a number of consumer surveys. Results will be posted
on ICSC Holiday Watch Website at: http://holiday.icsc.org throughout the holiday season. So, as you
begin to make your holiday season plans, remember to look to ICSC as your source for holiday related
information.
Happy Holidays from ICSC!
3
Media Alert
contacts International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)
Malachy Kavanagh +1 646 728-3495
Jesse Tron
+1 646 728-3814
Brittany Hays
+1 646 728-3515
whatThe International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) will release its Weekly Chain Store Sales
Report, a weekly report that measures nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding
restaurants and vehicles demand, throughout the holiday season beginning Tuesday, December 7, 2010.
when
Retail sales reports will be released at 7:45 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on:
DATE OF RELEASE DATA PERIOD
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
November 14-20
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
November 21-27
*Thursday, December 2, 2010
Month of November
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
November 28- December 4
Tuesday, December 14, 2010 December 5-11
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
December 12-18
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
December 19-25
*Thursday,
*
January 6, 2010
Month of December
Tuesday, January 4, 2010
December 26- January 1
Tuesday, January 11, 2010
January 2-8
*Thursday, February 3, 2010
Month of January
* Indicates monthly report, released at 12:00 p.m EST
INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITY
ICSC’s staff vice president, chief economist and director of research, Michael P. Niemira, is available
to provide in-depth analysis, including consumer perceptions, purchasing patterns, and trends.
Telephone and in-person interviews can be arranged. Please call ICSC’s Media Relations Department
at: +1 728-3814/3515 to arrange an interview.
Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its
more than 55,000 members in over 90 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers,
marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials. As the
global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center
councils throughout the world. For more information, visit www.icsc.org.
4
Gifts
What’s the Consumer Buying?
T op S i x H oliday G ifts for 2 0 1 0
1. Gift Cards (66% vs. 59% in 2009)
2. Clothing (was #1 in 2009)
3. Toys or Games
4. Music, CDs or DVDs
5. Cash
6. Consumer Electronics (35%; Steady with 2009)
Electronic Readers, such as the Kindle (8%)
Computer Tablets, such as the IPad (7%)
Source: ICSC-Goldman Sachs (first wave) Consumer Survey
Gifts
what’s hot this season?
TOYS*
APPAREL & ACCESSORIES***
• Air Hogs Moto Frenzy
Spin Master/ages 8 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $24.99
• V.Reader
Vtech/ages 3 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $59.99
• Disney Princess & Me Dolls
Jakks Pacific/ages 6 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $49.99
• Zoobles
Spin Master/ages 4 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $4.99
• Hot Wheels R/C Stealth Rides
Mattel/ages 6 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $24.99
ELECTRONICS**
• Leapster Explorer
Leapfrog/ages 4 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $69.99
• Lego Games - Lego Systems
Lego/ages 7 years & up
Approx. Retail Price $29.99
• Loopz
Mattel/ages 7 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $29.99
• Monster High Dolls
Mattel/ages 6 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $16.99
• Nerf N-Strike Stampede Ecs
Blaster
Hasbro/ages 8 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $49.99
• Paper jamz
Wowwee/ages 5 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $24.99
• Real construction
Jakks Pacific/ages 5 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $24.99
• Scrabble Flash
Hasbro/ages 8 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $29.99
• Sing-A-Ma-Jigs
Mattel/ages 3 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $12.99
• Squinkies
Blip Toys/ages 4 years & up
Approx. Retail Price: $6.99
• Tonka Chuck & Friends Chuck’s
Stunt Park Playset
Hasbro Playskool/ages 3 years & up
Approx. Retail Price $39.99
Video Game Consoles
• Sony PlayStation Move bundle $99
• Microsoft Kinect $149
• xBox360 Holiday Bundle $299
• PlayStation 3 Slim $299
• PSP Go $249.99
Televisions and Accessories
• 3D TV’s
–– 55’ Samsung LED 8000 $3,499.99
• Internet Convergent TV’s
–– Vizio TruLED 55’ Internet Connected
TV $1,799
• Logitech Revue (connects HDTV to
internet) $299
• Flat panel LCD/LED Televisions
Computers• Notebook’s (small/compact/light/inexpensive)
• MacBook Air $999
• Touch Screen Tablets
–– Lenovo Idea Pad $549.99
–– iPad $499
–– Samsung Galaxy Tab $399
e-Readers• Amazon Kindle 3G $189
Smart Phones• Android capable
• iPhone 4G
Other• Digital Camera
• Digital Photo Frame
• iPod Nano 8G $149
WOMEN
• Social Occasion Dresses (but not long
gowns)
• Plush, Long Cozy Sweaters
• Leather Jackets
• Zip-front Hooded Sweatshirts
• Sequins
• Plaid
• Denim
• Leggings
• Vests
• Dramatic Shoes
• Faux Fur
• Boots
• Statement Costume Jewelry
• Cold Weather Accessories (knit hats/
scarves/gloves)
• Stylish Gloves
• Cross body, Hobo and Messenger Handbags
• Waterfall sweaters
• Rubber watches in bright colors
• Costume Jewelry: watches, bracelets,
large cocktail rings, subtle statement
necklaces, black stones
• Fashion boots in all lengths and shapes
• Handbags: classic look
• Tailored Velvet Jacket
• Novelty leggings: daring colors and prints
• Gray is the #1 color for the season
followed by neutral tones like whites,
browns and beiges
• Lace appliqués
MEN
• Sweaters in Dark Colors
and Earth Tones
• Faux Leather Jackets
• Fluffy Robes
• Flannel Shirts
• Gingham/Plaids
• Updated/modern valet to hold phone, ipod,
change, ect…
• 80’s/retro style watches
• Boots: utilitarian/ lace up
• Flannel shirts
• Scarves, mufflers: plain/ knitted
• Patterned Sweaters in a Nordic/
Scandinavian style
* Source for toys: www.timetoplaymag.com ** Source for electronics: The Consumer Electronics Association *** Source for men’s/ women’s apparel: The Doneger Group
Holiday Fun Facts
f Malls begin decorating the first week of November
f The average mall takes about 5 days to decorate for the holidays
f Malls will spend an average of $20,000 this year on decorating for the holidays
f The holiday that most malls will decorate for is Christmas
f The most popular holiday song played at malls is Jingle Bells
f 90% of malls will offer special holiday shopping hours
f 90% of malls say that their special holiday shopping hours will begin on Black Friday
f This year, about 60% of malls will offer special amenities for holiday shoppers. Some of the most popular amenities include:
•Gift Wrap
• Valet Parking
•Refreshments
•Shopper Shuttle
•Gift with Purchase
•Security Escorts
•Family Events
f 80% of malls will organize an activity to raise money or merchandise for a charity. Some of the more popular charity events/activities include:
•Clothing Drive
•Holiday Entertainment to Raise Money
• Toy Drive/Toys for Tots
• Tree Lighting
• Salvation Army Angel Tree/Giving Tree
• Giftwrap Fundraiser
• Benefit/Walk to Support Local Hospital • Night of Giving
• Pet Adoption
• Weekly Theme Night
• Santa to a Senior
• Santa Feeds America
f 95% of malls will advertise for the holidays, the most common ways malls will advertise are: TV, Print, and Internet ads. Other ways malls will advertise are: Direct Mail, Billboards, Social Media, Eblast, Mobile Messaging and Digital Boards
f60% of malls say that the most popular denomination of gift cards sold in 2009 was $25
7
Holiday Fun Facts
fAbout 40% of malls say they will participate in a special holiday gift certificate incentive program
this holiday season
f72% of malls say that most gift cards are redeemed in January
f G iven the current economic climate, 67% of malls say that their center is doing more to attract
consumers during the holiday season, including:
•Celebrity Appearances
•Contests
• Kids Entertainment
• Valet Services
• Unique Vendors
• Movie Ticket Giveaways
• Holiday Banners
• Family-Based free events
• Weekly E-mail Blasts
• Black Friday Events
• Santa Breakfasts
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8
Holiday Forecasting
B ringing B ack S ome H oliday C heer
2010 Holiday Retail Sales Likely to be Strongest Since 2006
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is forecasting that the 2010 holiday shopping
season (Nov.-Dec.) will increase by 3-3.5 percent over the same period last year, making it the largest
increase since 2006 (+4.4%). The ICSC projection is for U.S. retail industry chain stores that have
been open for at least one year.
“The key story is that the retail recovery continues and that bodes well for the upcoming holiday shopping season” said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist and director of research for ICSC. “Additionally, we expect holiday hiring to improve moderately over last year and overall employment growth to
improve as well, which in turn should support increased spending,” Niemira added.
Other common measures of holiday sales performance are projected to follow similar patterns.
ICSC’s measure of U.S. “shopping center sales” is projected to grow 3 percent, also its strongest
performance since 2006, while a narrower measure, GAFO (General Apparel Furniture Other) store
sales, is expected to increase by 2.5 percent
U.S. Holiday-Season Spending
November–December Periods, Not Seasonably Adjusted, Billions of Dollars Unless Otherwise Noted
Category
ICSC Index of Chain Store Sales (Same Store)
% Change
Shopping Center Sales
% Change
GAFO Store Sales
% Change
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research.
9
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Forecast
4.4
$432
3.0
$248
3.6
1.1
$440
1.8
$252
1.6
-5.6
$423
-3.8
$237
-5.7
2.3
$424
0.2
$237
-0.1
3.0–3.5
$437
3.0
$243
2.5
Holiday Forecasting
GiftGift-Card Impact on the Shopping Season
Gift Card Benchmarks
In 2010, Holiday Expenditures in the Form of a Gift Card:
13.013.0-13.5% expected
In 2009 ……………………………………………………………… 13.1%
In 2008…………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………….… 13.6
In 2007………………………………………………………
.. 14.7
2007………………………………………………………..
In 2006……………………………………………………
2006……………………………………………………..…. 17.9
In 2005……………………………………………………
2005……………………………………………………..…. 13.1
In 2004……………………………………………………
2004……………………………………………………..…. 14.5
In 2003……………………………………………………
2003……………………………………………………..…. 13.5
Source: ICSC surveys.
The 2010 Holiday Season Outlook
Ahead of and During the Holiday Season
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan-Oct
Median, 1993-2009
2.9
3.9
2.1
2.8
4.2
5.0
6.5
4.2
1.4
2.2
2.4
4.6
4.0
4.9
3.2
0.2
-4.2
Jan-Sep: 3.4
3.2
Nov-Dec
3.7
3.3
1.9
2.5
4.0
4.1
5.1
1.9
0.3
-0.3
4.1
2.5
4.0
4.4
1.1
-5.6
2.3
3-3.5 F
2.5
Length of the Shopping
Season (Days Between
Thanksgiving and Christmas
Difference
days)
0.8
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-1.5
-2.3
-1.0
-2.5
1.7
-2.1
0.0
-0.5
-2.1
-5.8
6.6
29
30
31
26
27
28
29
31
32
26
27
29
30
31
32
27
28
29
29
-0.7
Day of the
Week for
Christmas
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Hanukkah
(holiday starts
night before)
12/9
11/28
12/18
12/6
12/24
12/14
12/4
12/22
12/10
11/30
12/20
12/8
12/26
12/16
12/5
12/22
12/12
12/2
Source: ICSC Research.
Holiday Chain Store Sales Projections By
Segment
Forecast
Ex-Wal-Mart
Total Comp-Store Sales
Apparel Specialty
Department Stores
Luxury
Discounters
Wholesale Clubs
Drug Stores
Source: ICSC Research.
10
2010 (Nov-Dec)
+3.0 to +3.5%
+3.0% to +4.0%
+3.5% to +4.0%
+6.0% to +8.0%
+1.5% to +2.5%
+5.0% to +6.0%
2009
2.3
1.2
-1.8
0.1
2.5
5.2
0.0% to +1.5%
0.8
November-December Averages
2008
2007
2006
-5.6
1.1
4.4
-10.6
-1.8
-0.4
-10.0
1.0
4.1
-13.9
5.2
6.7
-0.3
1.1
1.7
-2.8
6.8
4.8
1.4
2.7
7.2
2005
4.0
2.4
2.0
4.5
2.8
5.6
6.1
Holiday Forecasting
"Traditional" Holiday Season Spending Trends and 2010 Forecast
Billions of Dollars, November-December Periods, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Category
GAFO Store Sa le s
% Cha nge
Elec tronic s & Applianc es
% Change
Appliances, T.V. & camera
% Change
Computer & software stores
% Change
Clothing and Accessory Stores
% Change
Men's c lothing s tores
% Change
W omen's c lot hing s tores
% Change
Shoe s t ores
% Change
Sporting Good, Hobby, Book & Music
% Change
General Merc handis e
% Change
Dept stores (ex. leased depts)
% Change
Other general merchandise stores
% Change
Warehouse clubs & superstores
% Change
All other general merchandise
% Change
Electronic shopping & mail-order
% Change
Shopping Center-Inclined Sales
% Cha nge
2000
197.6
3.7
18.0
1.2
14.2
7.4
3.4
-21.3
40.6
4.2
2.2
-0.2
6.7
7.9
4. 3
2.0
18.3
0.4
94.7
6.0
57.8
2.8
36.9
11.4
29.8
14.2
7.1
1.1
25.0
16.1
341.0
2.8
6.8
1.9
Online & Mail-Orders/S-C Sales PLUS (% Share)
Chain Store Sales Index (% Change)
2001
$204.3
3.4
19.1
6.3
15.2
7.1
3.4
0.1
40.0
-1.7
2.0
-12.0
6.7
-0.7
4.4
0.7
19.2
4.7
99.5
5. 0
55.9
-3.4
43.6
18.2
35.8
19. 9
7.8
11.0
23.6
-5.5
353.2
3.6
6.3
0.3
2002
$206.3
1.0
19.1
-0. 3
15.3
0.4
3.2
-3.8
41.3
3.5
1.9
-4.1
6.7
0.9
4.4
-0.2
18.9
-1. 5
100.1
0.6
52.1
-6. 7
48.0
10.0
40.2
12. 6
7.7
-1.7
25.5
8.0
357.7
1.3
6.6
-0.3
2003
$215.7
4.6
20.8
9.4
16.7
9.4
3.5
8.4
43.3
4.8
2.0
4.8
7.3
8.2
4.5
2.7
18.8
-0.4
105.2
5. 1
51.7
-0.9
53.6
11.7
45.0
11.8
8.6
11.4
28.2
10.6
375.1
4.8
7.0
4.1
2004
$226.8
5.1
22.2
6. 4
18.2
8.8
3.7
5.4
45.6
5.3
2.1
5.0
7.5
3.9
4.6
1.7
19.0
1.3
111.0
5.5
52.5
1.6
58.5
9.2
49.7
10.4
8.8
2.8
32.9
16. 7
397.0
5. 9
7.6
2.5
2005
$239.2
5.5
23.7
6.9
19.4
6.5
4.0
7.0
48.9
7.1
2.1
-0.4
8.1
7.5
5.1
11.7
19.5
2. 5
117.0
5. 4
52.1
-0.8
64.9
11.0
55.6
12. 1
9.2
4.7
38.2
16. 2
419.2
5.6
8.3
4.0
2006
$247.8
3.6
25.6
8. 1
21.0
8.3
4.5
14.1
50.9
4.1
2.1
3.3
8.4
3.4
5.3
3.2
19.2
-1. 7
122.0
4.3
51.8
-0.6
70.2
8.2
60.5
8. 8
9.7
4.5
42.5
11.3
431.9
3.0
9.0
4.4
2007
$251.6
1.6
26.2
2.3
21.4
2.1
4.6
1.6
51.3
0.8
2.0
-4.1
8.6
2.6
5.3
0.0
19.5
1.5
125.8
3.1
50.4
-2.7
75.4
7.4
65.6
8.4
9.8
1.3
46.6
9.6
439.7
1.8
9.6
1.1
2008
$237.4
-5.7
23.8
-9.4
19.2
-10.4
4.6
-0.8
45.8
-10.8
1.8
-11.6
7.4
-13.5
5. 0
-5.3
18.4
-5.7
124.4
-1.1
47.0
-6.7
77.4
2.6
68.0
3.6
9.4
-3.8
45.0
-3.3
422.9
-3.8
9.6
-5.6
2009
$237. 1
-0. 1
23. 0
-3. 2
18.3
-4. 4
4.7
2. 0
46.7
2. 0
1. 7
-4. 7
7. 3
-1. 3
5. 1
1. 9
18.8
2. 2
124. 4
-0. 0
45.2
-3. 9
79.2
2. 3
69.0
1. 5
10.2
8. 2
51.8
15. 2
423.9
0. 2
10.9
2.3
2010
$242.9
2.5
23.9
4. 0
--------47.9
2.5
------------19.4
3.5
126.9
2.0
----------------58.1
12.0
436.6
3.0
11.7
3-to-3.5
2007
$335.2
1.6
35.0
1.8
28.5
1.9
6.2
0.3
65.6
1.1
2.7
-3.5
11.2
1.7
7.0
0.0
26.3
2.1
168.0
3.2
63.7
-3.2
104.4
7.6
91.4
8.3
13.0
2.8
65.0
8.6
610.1
1.8
9.6
2008
$320.2
-4.5
32.2
-7.8
26.1
-8.5
6.1
-1.5
59.4
-9.3
2.4
-11.0
9.7
-13.0
6.7
-5.0
25.2
-4.2
168.1
0.0
59.8
-6.1
108.3
3.8
95.7
4.8
12.6
-3.4
63.1
-3.0
592.1
-3.0
9.6
2010
2009 Forecast
$319.6 $328.3
-0. 2
2.7
30. 9
32.5
-4. 1
5.0
24.6
---5. 9
--6.3
--3. 4
--60.3
61.5
1. 4
2.0
2. 3
---4. 9
--9. 6
---0. 9
--6. 8
--2. 0
--25.7
26.6
2. 2
3.2
168. 7
172.9
0. 4
2.5
57.6
---3. 6
--111.1
--2. 6
--97.4
--1. 8
--13.6
--8. 4
--72.0
79.2
14. 1
10.0
591.3
612.0
-0. 1
3.5
10.9
11.5
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research.
"Extended" Holiday Season Spending
Billions of Dollars, November-January Periods, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Category
GAFO Store Sales
% Change
Elec tronic s & Applianc es
% Change
Appliances, T.V. & camera
% Change
Computer & software stores
% Change
Clothing and Accessory Stores
% Change
Men's c lothing s tores
% Change
W omen's c lothing s tores
% Change
Shoe s tores
% Change
Sporting Good, Hobby, Book & Music
% Change
General Merc handis e
% Change
Dept stores (ex. leased depts)
% Change
Other general merchandise stores
% Change
Warehouse clubs & superstores
% Change
All other general merchandise
% Change
Electronic shopping & mail-order
% Change
Shopping Center-Inclined Sales
% Change
Online & Mail-Orders/S-C Sales PLUS (% Share)
2000
258.6
4.4
24.4
-0.1
18.9
6.6
4.9
-22.0
50.7
4.6
2.9
-0.7
8.7
9.6
5.8
1.6
23.9
1.6
123.3
7.0
72.9
2.8
50.4
13.6
41.0
16.2
9.4
3.3
34.3
15.9
467.4
3.7
6.8
2001
$267.6
3.5
25.7
5.5
20.1
6.4
4.8
-0.5
50.3
-0.8
2.5
-12.3
8.6
-0.1
5.8
1.5
25.2
5.2
129.5
5.0
70.4
-3.5
59.1
17.4
48.9
19.2
10.2
9.3
33.5
-2.2
485.3
3.8
6.5
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research.
11
2002
$271.5
1.5
25.6
-0.5
20.3
0.7
4.6
-5.2
52.2
3.7
2.4
-3.1
8.8
1.5
5.8
-0.9
24.9
-1.1
131.6
1.6
66.1
-6.1
65.5
10.8
55.4
13.3
10.1
-0.8
36.0
7.3
494.4
1.9
6.8
2003
$286.3
5.4
28.0
9.5
22.2
9.7
5.0
8.2
55.1
5.7
2.5
5.1
9.5
8.6
6.0
3.9
25.2
1.0
139.6
6.1
65.7
-0.6
73.9
12.8
62.6
13.1
11.3
11.0
40.1
11.4
520.1
5.2
7.2
2004
$299.8
4.7
29.8
6.3
24.3
9.2
5.2
3.8
57.7
4.7
2.6
3.9
9.9
3.7
6.1
1.5
25.3
0.6
147.2
5.4
66.7
1.5
80.5
9.0
69.1
10.2
11.5
1.9
46.0
14.7
547.8
5.3
7.7
2005
$317.8
6.0
32.2
8.3
26.2
7.9
5.5
7.4
61.8
7.1
2.6
-0.5
10.6
7.7
6.8
11.8
26.3
3.7
155.7
5.7
66.1
-0.8
89.5
11.2
77.4
12.0
12.2
6.2
53.9
17.2
580.4
6.0
8.5
2006
$329.9
3.8
34.4
6.6
28.0
6.8
6.2
12.1
64.8
4.9
2.8
4.7
11.0
3.2
7.0
3.0
25.8
-1.9
162.8
4.6
65.8
-0.5
97.1
8.4
84.4
9.1
12.7
4.0
59.9
11.0
599.3
3.3
9.1
Holiday Forecasting
H oliday H iring L ikely to B e M odestly H igher
U.S. Retail Sales and Retail Holiday Hiring
This week, the Hay Group—a global human resources consulting firm—released a survey of retailer
hiring expectations for the Christmas holiday season. The group’s leader for the retail practices opined
that “retailers are more optimistic than last year” ahead of the 2010 holiday shopping season. The key
findings from the organization’s fourth annual survey—which reflected responses from 20 major U.S.
retailers, including JC Penney, Abercrombie & Fitch and Pier 1, were:
• The holiday sales and hiring prospects were decisively more upbeat—no real surprise. The survey
found that for 2010 there is a “vastly brighter picture” for sales for about two-thirds of the respondents
and with that “the outlook for retail seasonal job applicants is also brighter, with 83% of retailers planning to hire more or about the same number of workers when compared to the 2009 holiday season.”
• Compared with 2009, “61% of those retailers surveyed plan to hire the same amount of seasonal
workers this year and 22% percent plan to hire five to 15% more workers. While the majority of respondents (63%) indicate that the ratio of permanent to seasonal store employees is about the same as
last year, 26% note that they plan to hire fewer seasonal and more permanent staff this holiday season.
Only 25% of respondents pay seasonal workers less than permanent staff, down from 33% in 2009.
• The Hay Group also found that 13% of its survey respondents said that they were “delaying decisions
about holiday staffing until closer to the holidays.” It appears that some retailers are taking a page out
of the consumers’ play bill and hiring closer to need as consumers shop closer to need. That need
during the holiday season is to get a gift before December 25 or December 2—for an early Hanukkah.
Although industry surveys are extremely useful—especially around important turning points in the
business cycle—it is also extremely useful to look at the actual retail net hiring performance—during the year and during the important holiday season. Chart 1 does that and shows the relationship
between shopping center industry sales—which provide a good benchmark of seasonal demand—and
the pace of net retail hiring for the general merchandise stores, clothing and clothing accessory stores,
electronics, sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores—which are heavily affected by the holiday
12
Holiday Forecasting
spending cycle. So far this year through August, the retail hiring pace is relatively flat on a year-overyear basis (using rolling three month moving averages to eliminate some of the statistical volatility),
while sales have led the hiring cycle as sales growth has turned up convincingly this year and remains
positive—though currently less so than earlier in 2010. These trends alone suggest that holiday hiring
is likely to be flat to up slightly from last year, as is confirmed by the retailer survey. Curiously and
encouragingly, one of the other findings from the Hay Group survey was an expectation that “retailers are...continuing to downplay the importance of Black Friday promotions this year—only 22% are
running the most promotions on Black Friday” compared with considerably higher expectations for
2009 (35%) and 2008 (45%). Of course, the reality remains to be seen, but it is likely the appropriate
strategy for 2010 and beyond. Increasingly, it is important for the retail industry to “smooth out” those
spending patterns throughout the season, instead of the increasingly spike-prone selling periods (that
is, some really strong selling days mingled among lots of weak or sluggish days) that have dominated the
holiday spending profile in recent years. With more sales help, more store inventory and a larger dose
of consumer optimism, this holiday season has the ingredients for a decent performance. Let’s hope.
Chart 1
Trends in U.S. Retail Hiring at the Christmas Holiday
13
Holiday Forecasting
Top Holiday Sales Days *
Top 10 Holiday Sales Days – 2009 Actual
Top 10 Holiday Sales Days – 2010 Predicted
Black Friday, November 27
Black Friday, November 26
Wednesday, December 23
Thursday, December 23
Saturday, December 26
Super Saturday, December 18
Tuesday, December 22
Saturday, December 11
Super Saturday, December 19
Wednesday, December 22
Saturday, December 12
Saturday, November 27
Monday, December 21
Tuesday, December 21
Saturday, November 28
Sunday, December 19
Sunday, December 20
Sunday, December 26
Thursday, December 24
Friday, December 24
Top Holiday Traffic Days *
Top 10 Holiday Traffic Days – 2009 Actual
Top 10 Holiday Traffic Days – 2010 Predicted
Black Friday, November 27
Black Friday, November 26
Saturday, December 26
Super Saturday, December 18
Super Saturday, December 19
Saturday, December 11
Wednesday, December 23
Thursday, December 23
Saturday, December 12
Sunday, December 26
Tuesday, December 22
Wednesday, December 22
Monday, December 21
Tuesday, December 21
Saturday, November 28
Saturday, November 27
Sunday, December 20
Monday, December 20
Saturday, December 5
14
* Source: ShopperTrak
Sunday, December 19
Michael P. Niemira
biographical information
Staff Vice President, Chief Economist & Director of Research
International Council of Shopping Centers
Michael P. Niemira
Staff Vice President,
Chief Economist &
Director of Research
International Council
of Shopping Centers
Michael P. Niemira is the staff vice president, chief economist and director of research for the
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). As the director of research, he is responsible for
the overall selection, design, implementation, and dissemination of all research projects undertaken
worldwide by the ICSC. These projects are considered to be at the forefront of the recognized
research in the field. He also oversees the collection and maintenance of ICSC e-data, the main
statistical database for the industry, and the e-library, the largest online collection of shopping center
related materials in the world. Mr. Niemira produces the ICSC – Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store
Sales Snapshot – a retail sales monitor – as well as the monthly report, Chain Store Sales Trends.
Before joining ICSC, Mr. Niemira held the position of vice president and senior economist for the Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Ltd. (BTM) in New York. Previously, he worked for PaineWebber, Chemical Bank
and Merrill Lynch. Over the years, he has been an adjunct instructor at New York University’s Stern
Graduate School of Business and at the New York Institute of Finance.
Mr. Niemira is on advisory panels for the Conference Board and the Institute for Supply Management.
He has co-authored two books: “Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles,” John Wiley & Sons,
1994, and “Trading the Fundamentals,” Revised Edition, McGraw Hill, 1998 and contributes numerous
articles to books, journals and magazines.
INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITY
Mr. Niemira is available to provide in-depth analysis including consumer perceptions, purchasing
patterns, and trends. Telephone and in-person interviews can be arranged. Please call ICSC’s Media
Relations Department at 646-728-3814/3515 to arrange an interview.