Swati Basu - National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

25 years of NCMRWF……
Swati Basu
ESSO-NCMRWF
17th February 2014
Background
NCMRWF was created on recommendations of Yashpal committee formed by
Government of India on the lines of ECMWF for dynamical weather forecasts 3-10
days in advance using Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM).
Recommendations
• Development of operational global and regional numerical models for weather
forecasting (with emphasis on medium-range) taking advantage of the work already
done in India and abroad.
• Acquisition of a supercomputer and other infrastructure necessary for the
purpose.
• Preparation of medium-range weather forecasts (4 to 10 days in advance) for 127
agroclimatic zones on operational basis.
• Promotion and coordination of research & development in medium range weather
forecasting in the country.
Initial Focus
• Acquisition of the supercomputer and experimentation with a
suitable global AGCM
•
This needed training of scientists, as India was entering a new field
of utilizing global AGCM.
NCMRWF Accomplishments
•
In 1989, the Centre implemented the ECMWF global atmospheric model (Cycle-30) .
Several test runs were carried out and different components of a weather forecasting
system were linked up at T79L19 resolution by the scientists of the Centre.
•
Support by the international community to help establish an operational mediumrange forecast system, Prof. Shukla along with scientists from COLA, USA implemented
the COLA R40 model at the Centre. Scientists from NCMRWF and COLA jointly
implemented all components of NWP system which included an optimuminterpolation (OI) based analysis scheme, diagnostic and graphics packages.
•
During 1992-93, the Centre, with the scientists of NMC (National Meteorological
Centre (now NCEP) USA, implemented global data assimilation forecast system at
T80L18 resolution in Cray-XMP/14
•
Scientists of NCMRWF became completely familiar with the flow as well as the code
of the modelling system, which resulted into the convenient porting of the end-toend modelling system on the low-cost distributed memory systems at a later time.
NCMRWF Accomplishments
•
After experimenting, NCMRWF became operational in 1994 and started providing
forecasts up to 3 days to India Meteorological Department.
•
In the first decade of its existence, the centre could demonstrate capabilities of using
data from all observation systems, data processing and data assimilation for initial
conditions for AGCM.
Till another decade, NCMRWF was the only centre possessing the unique capability
of running an end-to-end dynamical numerical weather prediction (NWP) with real
time assimilation of terrestrial, ocean, satellite and aircraft observations.
The Global model was upgraded from T80L18 at horizontal resolution of 150Km in 1994 to
the T254L64 at resolution of 50 km in 2007 with capability to assimilate satellite radiances.
The GFS was further upgraded to the T382L64 at 35 km and T574L64 at resolution of 22
km in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
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In November 2011, NCMRWF handed over the tested T574L64 model to IMD for
operational use.
NCMRWF has subsequently started producing probabilistic forecasts
Regional/Mesoscale Modeling
• Apart from global NWP models, NCMRWF took the lead in
implementing regional and mesoscale models with data
assimilation for short range forecasts in 1995.
• Subsequently dynamical mesoscale modeling has spread all
over India. Several universities and organizations use them for
various applications.
NCMRWF is now working towards a seamless prediction system both in spatial and
Temporal range with global 16 km resolution and regional nested 4 km and 1.5 km
resolution
Growth of Computing Power at NCMRWF
Year
First super computer of India CRAY
XMP-14/216 (1988-1998)
Peak
Performence
1988-91
234MF
1992-99
468MF
2000-02
1GF
2003-05
28.8GF
2005-06
500GF
2006-10
1000GF
2011-12
24TF
2014…..
350TF
Upgradation of Data Assimilation - Forecast System
Horizontal Resolution (km)
200
150
Forecast Performance
Coarse
Resolution
GFS (Model) +
SSI-3DVAR(DA)
Fine
Resolution
100
over the years
(RMSE of Day-3 FCST 850 hPa wind)
lower the RMSE better the forecast April 2013
GFS +
SSI-3DVAR
50
GFS +
GFS +
GSI-3DVAR
GFS +
UM
& +
GSI-3DVAR
GSI-3DVAR GFS +
4DVAR
GSI-3DVAR
0
1994-2007
2007
2009 Year 2010
2011
2013
Applications of NCMRWF NWP Products
• Statistical Interpretation (SI) models were developed based on
Perfect Prognostic Method (PPM) to generate location specific
forecasts.
• AMFUs were established in collaboration with the State Agricultural
Universities (SAUs) and other institutions of ICAR in well planned
phased manner. Till 2007, Agro Advisory Service (AAS) were
extended to 106 units .
Having demonstrated the success of the scheme, the entire AAS was transferred
to IMD in 2007 for its further extension.
Capacity building and customized forecasts
NCMRWF has rendered technical/capacity development support to
• IMD in setting up their operational T382 and T574 global forecast systems
• IAF, SASE, Indian Navy in setting up their operational meso-scale forecast
systems
• INCOIS for WAVEWATCH-III model implementation
• Neighbouring countries (Sri Lanka, Kenya, Qatar etc.) through training
programmes in weather and climate modeling, use and interpretation of
forecast products
• SAUs for crop-weather modelling
• Providing products to Defence, Disaster Management
• ISRO for support for satellite launches
• BARC, DAE for Support for Offsite Nuclear Emergency,
• Provide surface winds and fluxes over the ocean surface to INCOIS and Indian
Navy to run their wave and wind-driven ocean circulation models.
• Provided forecasts to Indian Army for mountaineering expeditions
• Provided support to CDAC for integrating weather applications on
indigenously developed HPC (Param etc.)
Present Status
NCMRWF as part of ESSO-MoES
NCMRWF became part of ESSO MoES in 2006
(along with IMD and IITM)
Reorganization
• Integration of various units of MoES including ocean
units
• Synergy with specific and joint roles of each unit
This was accomplished through integrated programs of
ESSO-MoES
Integrated Programs/Activities of NCMRWF
with other ESSO Units
Monsoon Mission
(IMD, IITM,INCOIS)
(Along with other International and National partners and International and Indian
universities)
Severe Weather Prediction (IMD)
Integrated Water Cycle (IMD. IITM)
(Along with other Indian organization and universities and International partners)
Multi Model Ensemble Prediction (IMD,IITM)
(Used for district level forecasts)
Rainfall Analysis (IMD)
(Generating observed rainfall data with appropriate merging of satellite and
Indian raingauges )
NCMRWF also provided real time forecasts to NCAOR for their First south Pole
Expedition
Present Status
Mission
To continuously develop next generation of numerical weather forecasts, in terms
of reliability and accuracy over India and neighboring regions through research,
development and demonstration of new and novel applications, maintaining highest level
of knowledge, skills and technical bases.
•
Objectives
Development and improvement of state of the art Numerical Weather
Forecast Systems
•
Improvement of Assimilation Techniques and optimal utilization of various platform
based Observations
•
Development of customized products
Numerical Weather Prediction System of NCMRWF
Data
Global Observations Reception
SURFACE
from land
stations
GTS
~1200mb/dy
RTH, IMD
SHIP
BUOY
24x7
Upper Air
RSRW/
PIBAL
Aircraft
Satellite
NKN
ISRO
(MT)
NKN
NCMRWF
OBSERVATION
PROCESSING
NKN
High Resolution
Satellite Obsn
NKN
Internet (FTP)
~ 18 Gb/day
NESDIS
proposed
dedicated
link
(Mauritius)
EUMETSAT
Global Data
Assimilation
Observation
quality
checks &
monitoring
Forecast
Models
Global Model
T574L64 ,
UM-N512L70
10 day FCST
Users
IMD
INCOIS
IITM
SASE
BARC
RIMES
Global
Analysis
(GSI ,
UM-4DVAR)
Global
Ensembles
Initial state
(T190L28)
20-members
10-day FCST
Global
Forecast
Model
4 times a day for
00,06,12,18 UTC
once in a day
for 00 UTC
Other
sectors
Enhancement of data Reception at NCMRWF
Manifold increase in observation
GTS (~50%)
Internet Data Service(~180%)
during 2013-14 vis a vis 2012-13
resulting in total
volume of data around 20GB/day.
Major satellite data sets in a single assimilation cycle
NESDIS
EUMETCAST
GTS
NRSC
NESDIS
Emphasis on improving timelines of getting regional data
Special efforts are being mad to
improve availability and timeliness of
time critical polar orbiting satellite
data over our region efforts by
becoming member in Asia-Pacific
RARS group.
Asia –Pacific RARS
Data from 3 IMD HRPT stations data
are being operationally used now.
IMD Chennai HRPT station data is critical
To RARS group as it covers data gap area
Indian Buoys deployed and Maintained by ESSO-NIOT
feed back on
observation
quality
India
Met.
Department
IC & FCST
Central/
State GOVT
Public
ISRO
INCOIS
value added product
Media
feed back on
satellite
observation
quality.
First Guess
(Local & Global)
NCMRWF
Numerical Modelling of
Weather & Climate
IC
observations
IC &
FCST
ESSO
satellite obsn.
Linkage of NCMRWF with Various Organizations
Sectoral Users
(Agriculture ,
Aviation ….)
IITM
Capacity Building
on NWP
Ocean and
Fishery services
New
Applications
THE RECENT HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING SYSTEM:
3114 IBM System iDataPlex dx360 M4 nodes each configured with 16 cores of Intel Sandybridge
processors clocking at 2.6 GHz, with 64 GB DDR3 1600MHz RAM per Compute node This system is
capable of delivering 350 TF of peak compute power.
All HPC facilities for entire ESSO are to be maintained at NCMRWF and IITM with
high speed connectivity to other units.
NATIONAL KNOWLEDGE
NETWORK
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Technical Overview
► The backbone of the network starts from 2.5 Gbps and progressively moves
onto 10 Gbps connectivity between 7 Supercore (fully meshed) locations across
India.
Key Highlights
► The architecture of NKN has been designed for reliability,availability &
scalability
► The network consists of an ultra-high speed core, starting with multiple
2.5/10 G and progressively moving towards 40/100 Gbps
► The core is complimented with a distribution layer covering all districts at
appropriate speeds
► The participating institutions at the edge like NCMRWF seamlessly
connect to NKN at Gigabit per second speed
► NKN provides international connectivity to its users for global collaborative
research. Presently, NKN is connected to:
–
Trans Eurasia Information Network (TEIN3)
–
Similar connectivity to few other research networks is in the pipeline
National Knowledge Network (NKN) Connectivity
US , NESDIS
NESDIS
EUROPE
UKMO
EUMETSA
T
SASE
ISTRAC
ISSDC
CAWCR
AUSTRALIA
CMLRI
National Long Distance
ESSO
MOES
SAC
IMD
NCMRWF
NIOT
IITM
INCOIS
NCAOR
ICMAM
NLD 1
NLD 2
NLD 3
International & National Collaboration
• International Partners
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UK (UKMO,NERC, University of reading, University of Exeter, Imperial College)
USA(NOAA/NCEP,UCAR/NCAR,FSU etc.)
AUSTRALIA (CAWCR),Korea (KMA),RIMES
GERMANY, FRANCE…..in pipe line
BIMSTEC
AFRICA
• National
MoES partners through ESSO
IISc,IITs, SASE,BARC, IAF, Indian Navy, CDAC,TERI,
Universities (BHU, Allahabad University, Andhra University ,Cochin University etc.)
Human Resources
Current Strength
Scientists
61 (Total) ~ 90% phD
No. of Scientists engaged in 56 (5 infrastructure support)
modeling and assimilation
Administrative staff
11
Total Staff
72
Expected strength of 100 by 2017
Ensemble Based Tropical Cyclone Track
Forecasts
(a)
(b)
(c)
(a) Strike probability
(b) Ensemble member tracks
(c) Forecast Track Error (km)
NGEFS: EPgram Rainfall (mm) for New Delhi
Observed Rain (mm)
Delhi 4-15 Feb 2014
25
20
15
10
5
0
4
5
6
7
8
9
14-15 February 2014
Day 5
10 11 12 13 14 15
Day 10
Day 9
Day 3
Day 2
Day 7
Day 1
Forecast Generation for
Neighbouring Regions
RIMES
•
The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early
Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) is
an international and intergovernmental
institution, owned and managed by its 12
Member States, for the generation and
application of early warning information.
•
Bangladesh, Cambodia, Comoros, India, Lao
PDR, Maldives, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea,
Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and TimorLeste. The 19 Collaborating Countries are:
Afghanistan, Armenia, Bhutan, China,
Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan,
Russian Federation, Somalia, Tanzania,
Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Yemen.
•
Customised forecasts for each country is
generated at NCMRWF daily and provided
through RIMES website/e-mail
Forecast Generation for Neighbouring
Regions
BIMSTEC Countries
The cabinet has approved for signing the
Memorandum of Association (MoA) on
4th March 2014 among
the BIMSTEC member countries.
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar,
Nepal, Srilanka, Thailand for the
establishment of BIMSTEC Centre for
Weather and Climate (BCWC)
NCMRWF will double as BCWC.
Aimed towards
Capacity Building
Customized Forecast generation
Augmentation of observing systems
Forecast Generation for
Neighbouring Regions
Total Upper Air Stations
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An India-Africa Centre for Medium
Range Weather Forecasting (IACMRF) is to be set up at Mauritius to
fulfil India’s commitments made at the
second Africa-India Forum Summit in
the area of capacity building in Africa.
ESSO-NCMRWF has been entrusted
with the responsibility of
establishing such centre for the 52
African Union countries.
Meteograms for 52 capital cities of
African Union countries are being
generated regularly and posted in
NCMRWF’s web site. The analysis of
global model prediction skill for
different meteorological parameters
over African region is in progress.
• Augmentation of observing
systems over the African union
countries are planned
Upper Air Observations
Surface Observations
Future Directions
• Skillful analysis forecast system
a) Optimization of observations and their assimilation
c) Radar data assimilation in high resolution nested model
b) Special emphasis on Indian observation (especially from Satellites)
c) Ensemble data assimilation
d) Land Surface assimilation
• Probabilistic forecasts (44 members 33 Km resolution)
• Moving towards seamless prediction Capability at various temporal spatial scales
a) Unified model with 16 Km global model resolution with nested 4 & 1.5 km
b) Coupled model with ocean data assimilation, SARAL/Altika..
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Development of new applications
Fog, snow, supporting wind energy applications…..
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Fulfilling commitments towards BIMSTEC centre for weather and Climate
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Continued support to RIMES
• Fulfilling commitments towards Indo Africa Centre for medium range weather
Forecasting