delivery - Deutsche Post DHL Group

Transcription

Deutsche Post DHL Group
Delivering eCommerce
Investor Relations
RBC 2015 Consumer & Retail Conference, London 21.5.15
DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP IS THE GLOBAL LEADER OF THE
LOGISTICS INDUSTRY
1
#1 Europe´s largest postal and
parcel provider
1
#1 International express delivery
1
#1 Global air freight volumes
2
2
1
#2 Global ocean freight
volumes
#2 European road freight volumes
#1 Global leader in contract logistics
INVESTOR RELATIONS ECOMMERCE PRESENTATION | MAY 2015
64mn letters and more than 4 mn parcels each
workday in GER, and selected international markets
Leader with 34% market share, serving >2.5mn
customers in 220 countries and territories
~4mn tons of Air freight volume
2.9mn TEUs of Ocean freight volume
Revenue of €4.2 bn and presence in more than 50
countries and territories
Leader with a market share of 8% well ahead of next
biggest competitors: 13.7mn m2 of warehouse space
PAGE 2
OUR UNIQUE NETWORK CONFIGURATION IS A STRONG FOUNDATION
FOR FUTURE GROWTH
Europe
International
Europe‘s No.1 parcel
company with growing
coverage of own end-toend network operations
Leading parcel provider in growth
markets like India – incomparable global
network flexibility due to own parcel
operations and interlinkage with DHL
Express and local postal operators
PAGE 3
WE TURNED INTO A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY TO REDEFINE PARCEL
DELIVERY
SORTING
DELIVERY
LOCKERS
Building Europe‘s largest
parcel HUB
Having developed our own
e-delivery van
Having constructed the
leading parcel locker
solution
PAGE 4
INDIVIDUALIZING PARCEL DELIVERY ON THE LAST MILE IS THE
ULTIMATE DIFFERENTIATOR
Parcel lockers
Parcel
shops
Courier and same
day delivery
Private Parcel
boxes
Click-to-car
Parcel copter
PAGE 5
Back-up
PAGE 6
WE HAVE A KEEN INTEREST IN SUPPORTING THE GROWTH OF
ECOMMERCE BY ADDRESSING VARIOUS PARTS OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN
Cross-border
eCommerce
Delivery
50
40
• International B2X
shipping
– Express
– Deferred
commercial
– Postal
• International
eFulfillment solutions
0
30
eFulfillment
eFacilitation
10
20
• Multichannel
domestic delivery and
return incl. intra-EU
• Innovative services
like Packstation,
Private parcel
box etc.
• Domestic eFulfillment
incl. value added
services
• Marketplaces
• Marketing services
• Payment solutions
Primarily through
partners
PAGE 7
IN 2010, DHL PARCEL LAUNCHED THE ONLINE MARKET PLACE
ALLYOUNEED.COM FOR THE GERMAN MARKET
Allyouneed – MARKETPLACE
Registered
Customers
3 mn
At a glance
Available
Products
•
Online marketplace with integrated
checkout
•
Additional sales channel for online
shops - full range offer for online
shoppers
•
Launch Germany in 2010, first
international branch in Poland since
2014
•
Further European expansion with
cross border leverage planned
13 mn
Active
Merchants
3,500
PAGE 8
SINCE MAY 2012, ALLYOUNEED IS ACTIVE AS A FULL-RANGE ONLINE
SUPERMARKET IN GERMANY
Allyouneed Fresh – SUPERMARKET
Registered
150k
Customers
Avg items
per order
At a glance
•
Online supermarket with focus on food
and FMCG
•
More than 20,000 products available
(thereof 3,000 fresh chilled products)
•
Dedicated delivery options for grocery
(time-window, evening delivery) with
“DHL Kurier”
•
Allyouneedfresh.cn for Chinese
customers with focus on health care/
baby & kids products
29
Available
products
+20,000
PAGE 9
DHL HAS LONG EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING AND RUNNING
UNATTENDED DELIVERY SOLUTION
DHL PACKSTATION – PARCEL LOCKER
Our Network
• 24/7 parcel drop-off and pick-up
• Delivery notification and mobile TAN transmission via
SMS
• 14 years of experience in Hardware, Software and
network development
• DHL owned hardware and software solution
More than 7 million frequent users in
Germany
• ~2800 machines with 270.000 compartments available
each day
• Currently situated in more than 1600 cities
nationwide. 90% of the German population are within
10 minutes of a PACKSTATION
• First machines placed outside Germany in the
Netherlands, Italy and Switzerland
PAGE 10
THE DHL PARCEL BOX
FOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS FOR PERSONALIZED DOOR STEP E-COMMERCE
Key features DHL Parcel Box
Opening technologies via
 NFC-Chip
 Smartphone*
 Courier handheld
Product specifications:
 Two product lines
(classic/modern)
 Two different sizes; e.g., XL
with 166 liter
/
:
Offline access control with patented
lock solution
 Upgrade options letter box
and free standing
Power supply by 4xAAA
batteries (last 24 months)
 37 colors to choose from
Usage of DHL Parcel Box
Online Purchase
Address the
shipment to your
home address
*As of June 2015
Delivery
DHL courier opens
box with handheld
and inserts
shipment
Reception
Customer opens box
with NFC-Tag or
smartphone
First Mile
Place e.g. parcels
return into parcel
box; DHL courier
picks up parcel
PAGE 11
EXPANDING THE PARCEL BOX SOLUTION TO APARTMENT HOUSES
ENABLES DOOR STEP CONVENIENCE FOR A BROADER POPULATION
Key features DHL Parcel Box
Product specifications:
 Modular construction
 4 compartment sizes
 Flexible configurable
 Upgrade option letter
compartment
Offline access control with
patented lock solution
Dynamic compartment
allocation opens door for
customer only if a parcel is
deposited for him
Opening technologies via
 NFC-Chip
 Smartphone*
 Courier handheld
/
:
*As of June 2015
Usage of modular DHL Parcel Box
•
Similar process and opening solution as for single-user parcel box
•
Receiving as well as sending option (e.g. for returns) for registered users
•
Correct allocation of respective receiver to right compartment done system-wise, thus
high security level ensured
PAGE 12
CLICK-TO-CAR IS A JOINT INNOVATION PROJECT OF AMAZON & DHL
„Click-to-car“
Project description
• Joint project development of Amazon & DHL
• In-car delivery piloted for May 2015
• Piloting partners:
Audi/VW
Perspectives and outlook
• Alternative to workplace delivery
• New, innovative delivery formats possible, e.g.
– Time window delivery to parking lots
– Night delivery at home addresses
– Unmanned car-to-car delivery
PAGE 13
PROCESS DESCRIPTION OF „CLICK-TO-CAR“ DELIVERY
Example
„Click-to-car“ workflow
Retailer sends license plate number and
assumed car position (± 250 m) to DHL
DHL locates car through a) GPS function
and b) blinking lights via special App
DHL opens trunk through special delivery
App and delivers parcel
As soon as trunk is closed, customer
receives message through consumer App
Customer picks up parcel in trunk
Source: DHL, Audi/Volkswagen
PAGE 14
THE PARCEL COPTER PROJECT PILOTS
UNMANNED DELIVERY UNDER REAL LIFE CONDITIONS
Second project phase 2014:
Medical transport to German island
 Delivery service to the North Sea island of Juist
surpassing a distance of 12 km
 Supply of urgent goods such as emergency
medications or electronic goods
 Flight by unmanned parcel copter outside visual
range from the mainland to the coast of Juist



Unique research project with huge press echo worldwide
Proof is shown: Technology works and can provide additional value
DHL Parcel as important opinion leader
PAGE 15
DHL KURIER SETS NEW STANDARDS IN FAST AND CONVENIENT
PARCEL DELIVERY
Target Areas
Service
++
Regional Same-day
• Same-day delivery
• Either in the evening time
slot (18-20 or 20-22) or by
day within 90 minutes
30 m.
potential
consignees!
• Additional services feasible
(e.g. Multi-Way)
Germany-wide Next-day
Multi-Way Concept
• >90% next day delivery
+
• Evening time slot (18-20
or 20-22) selectable
• Delivery pre-advice for a
30-minute time window
Customer References
Grocery
Pharmacy
Fashion & Others
Services
• Convenient Multi-Way process,
to avoid packaging waste
• Age verification e.g.,
concerning delivery of liquors
PAGE 16
WE OFFER UNIQUE DELIVERY CHOICES TO OUR PRIVATE CUSTOMERS
AND CONSIGNEES
Unique delivery options
at point-of-order
• Direct delivery to
+11,000 DHL Parcelshops (pick-up-stations)
• Direct delivery to +2,800
DHL Packstations
(country-wide locker
system)
• Additional delivery
features selectable in
check-out process of web
shops, e.g., timewindow definition
(DHL Courier)
Online shopping process
* Scheduled for 2nd half of 2015
Full transparency
on parcel delivery
• Full transparency on
delivery process with
- estimated delivery day
- time window prediction
• Various formats of
information:
- E-Mail notification
- DHL Parcel App
- Push notification
- T&T/DHL Website/
private customer portal
Flexibility with individual
delivery options
• Ad-hoc rerouting options
for parcels underway, e.g., change
- delivery day
- delivery time*
- delivery address*
- to a safe-place at
home*
• Definition of delivery
preferences at private
customer portal (valid for
all parcels received at
home)
Parcel delivery process
Exclusive reward system
for DHL customers
• DHL Parcel loyalty
program (~ 40% of
registered private DHL
customers participating)
• Get rewards, e.g., for
using direct delivery
options to Packstation
• Access to unique premium service options,
e.g., quicker access to
customer service
Beyond parcel delivery
PAGE 17
AS A RESULT, GERMANY IS TRAILBLAZER FOR THE EUROPEAN
E-COMMERCE AND SERVES AS BENCHMARK FOR FUTURE GROWTH
2018
2012
Parcels per capita
DE
UK
CH
DK
FR
NL
AT
SE
BE
CZ
PL
ES
IT
Growth driver
12
8
6
Further development
of recipient services
5
6
6
5
5
New goods and product
categories, e.g. groceries
and furniture
3
2
1
1
1
Cross-border orders of
products, which are not
available locally
Parcels per capita
DE
UK
CH
DK
FR
NL
AT
SE
BE
CZ
PL
ES
IT
12
24
14
6 12
5 11
5 11
4 10
4 10
4 9
3 6
2 4
2 3
2
2
6
Source: DHL Parcel Europe
The European e-commerce will be boosted by improved
delivery services and a broader product range
PAGE 18
Deutsche Post DHL Group
Investor Relations
May 2015
PAGE 19
Q1 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
Main operating and financial trends as expected
 Structural volume trends of dynamic parcel growth and letter decline once more
confirmed in PeP with EBIT flat as revenue growth again offset by higher costs
 Express growth momentum fully intact with volume growth feeding further margin
increase to drive another strong EBIT performance and higher cash flow
 Weak Forwarding performance: new management to review transformation
course and focus on operating performance improvement
 Supply Chain restructuring initiatives now in execution phase
 Cash Flow performance showing usual seasonal Q1 pattern with civil servant
pension payment and reversal of year-end effects
2015/16 guidance confirmed
PAGE 20
DPDHL GROUP STRATEGIC AGENDA
Executing on our short-term agenda…
 Stabilize Forwarding operating performance while reviewing transformation course
 Execute Supply Chain restructuring measures
 Negotiate a wage agreement to ensure future competitiveness especially in Parcel
Germany
 Continue investments in successful Express operations
…to build momentum for our long term strategic and financial goals:
Leveraging growth in e-commerce and emerging markets, based on unrivalled,
diversified business portfolio
Clear roadmap for margin and profit improvement
Flexible balance sheet and improving cash generation underpin payout policy
PAGE 21
MANAGEMENT UPDATE ON DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING
Management structure:
 Frank Appel, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding, Freight
 Renato Chiavi, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding
 Tobias Meyer, EVP Programs (Transformation)
 Amadou Diallo, CEO DHL Freight (unchanged)
Weak operational performance requires new management to review transformation
course
 Unchanged commitment to transformation and to increase of efficiency of our
Forwarding business
 Reviewing transformation course based on pilot country and organizational alignment
analysis
First priority: renewed and intensive focus on improving underlying business performance
PAGE 22
DHL SUPPLY CHAIN HAS 9 INITIATIVES TO DELIVER STRATEGY 2020
Focus
Connect
Grow
Drive standardization and
reduce complexity…
Create an effective
organization globally…
Shift the portfolio…
1 Improvement of
4 Efficient and effective
7 Value added
underperforming business
2 Operational standardization
functions
5 Consistent and lean
organization
globally
3 Commercial standardization
…to increase efficiency
6 Culture and mindset shift
…to enable change
services
8 Global sectors and
products
9 Geographical shift
…to address
attractive segments
PAGE 23
PeP: STRUCTURAL REDUCTION IN PERSONNEL FACTOR COSTS
DUE TO LAUNCH OF NEW PARCEL DELIVERY UNITS
Currently ~6,000
employees
Average wages, in EUR/h
11.9013.20
8.50*
8.50*
17.70
12.79
8.50*
* Legal
minimum
wage
DHL Delivery GmbH Deutsche Post AG
Degree of
outsourcing
100%
100%
95%
33%

Wage costs at Deutsche Post AG significantly above competition

Launch of new Delivery GmbHs reduces gap to competition
12.79 EUR/h instead of 17.70 EUR/h at DPAG
0%
<5%
since average wage level at
PAGE 24
PeP: CONTINUOUSLY OPTIMISING OUR PARCEL SERVICE OFFERING
FIRST MILE: Marketplace offer rebranded and going international
Allyouneed.com
Allyouneedfresh.com
NEW
•
Re-branding of
MeinPaket.de
•
Launch in Poland
LAST MILE: Customer-centric range of delivery options with ~30.000 drop off points
Paketshops
Packstation
Delivery at Home
Delivery boxes
Parcel box
PAGE 25
DHL EXPRESS: SUCCESSFUL TDI STRATEGY
Global TDI Revenue Market Share Development
Key Performance Drivers
Market
growth1)
+8%
+3%
+3%
 Steady increase in TDI market share driven
by best-in-class global network and service levels
12%
6%
12%
6%
12%
6%
29%
29%
27%
26%
 Growth accompanied by continuous strong margin
increase; further improvement possible from network,
efficiency and scale effects
23%
22%
22%
22%
 Growth enabled by targeted investments into our network
12%
7%
29%
+14%
2010
31%
+9%
2011
DHL
UPS
33%
+6%
2012
FedEx
TNT
34%
2013
 Modernizing European air fleet, upgrading capacity
and efficiency
 Continued investment in hub and ground
infrastructure across all geographies
Others
1) Source: MI 2014 Study: AT, DE, DK, ES, FR, IT, NL, RU, TR, UK, BR, CA, CO, MX, US, CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG, AE, SA, ZA
PAGE 26
STRATEGY 2020: TOPLINE GROWTH AND MARGIN IMPROVEMENT
Attractive growth in key addressable market segments within logistics
GDP growth assumptions
+2%
Estimated Market CAGR 2011‒2020, in EUR
+8%
+5-7%
Parcel Germany
Parcel Domestic
International
+5-6%
International
Express
Mature
Regions
+2-3%
+4-5%
+5-6%
Air Freight
Forwarding
Ocean Freight
Forwarding
Contract
Logistics
+5%
Emerging
Markets
Main Strategic Drivers
Revenue mix shift to parcel and
increased exposure to e-commerce
structural growth trend
Continued focus on TDI
with network, efficiency
and scale effects
Stabilize Forwarding operating
performance while reviewing
transformation course
Standardization, overhead
leverage and contract
portfolio enhancement
All divisions will contribute towards >8% group EBIT CAGR target
PAGE 27
2014 DIVIDEND INCREASE OF 6% AND UNCHANGED FINANCE POLICY
Dividend proposal of EUR 0.85 to the AGM on May 27, 2015
Deployment of Free Cash Flow
i.e. dividend payments of EUR 1.030bn to DPDHL shareholders on May 28, 2015
FINANCE POLICY, UNCHANGED
Target / maintain rating BBB+
€ 0.80
€ 0.65
59%
€ 0.70
58%
€ 0.852)
€ 0.70
53%
49%
50%
60%
Underlying
Payout Ratio1)
40%
Dividend payout ratio to remain between
40–60% of net profit (continuity and
Cash Flow performance considered)
Excess liquidity will be used for
 Stepwise pension funding
and / or
2010
2011
2012
2013
1) Adjusted for Postbank effects as well as non-recurring items
2) Proposal to AGM
2014
 Share buybacks and/or extraordinary
dividends
PAGE 28
EBIT GUIDANCE CONFIRMED FOR 2015/16/20
EUR bn
2015
2016
2020
PeP
At least 1.3
above 1.3
~ 3% CAGR 2013-20
DHL
2.1-2.25
2.45-2.75
~ 10% CAGR 2013-20
CC/Other
~ -0.35
~ -0.35
<0.5% of group revenue
Group
3.05-3.2
3.4-3.7
>8% CAGR 2013-20
FY 2015:
Free Cash Flow to exceed 2014 dividend
Tax rate around 18%
Gross Capex of around EUR 2.0bn
PAGE 29
Divisional Information
PAGE 30
DEUTSCHE POST DHL AT A GLANCE
Group
Group revenues 1): € 56.6bn Group EBIT1): € 2.965bn Approximately 440,000 employees
Corporate
Divisions
Post - eCommerceParcel
63% market share in letter
mail, 43% market share in
German parcel market,
selected international
parcel activities
Sales:
EUR 15,686m
EBIT:
EUR 1,298m
Empl.2):
164,582
Global Forwarding
Freight
Express
Global Time-DefiniteInternational (TDI) leader
with 34% market share
World´s largest Air and
2nd largest Ocean freight
forwarder, No2 in
European road freight
Sales:
EUR 12,491m
Sales:
EBIT:
EUR 1,260m
EBIT:
Empl.2):
73,009
Empl.2):
EUR 14,924m
EUR 293m
44,311
Supply Chain
Global market leader,
market share of 8% well
ahead next biggest
competitors
Sales:
EBIT:
Empl.2):
EUR 14,737m
EUR 465m
146,400
Corporate Center / Other: Sales: EUR 1,343m; EBIT: EUR -351m
Brands
1) Financial year 2014; 2) Average FTEs FY 2014
PAGE 31
POST, E-COMMERCE & PARCEL
PAGE 32
PeP: GOOD GROWTH ACROSS OUR PARCEL ACTIVITIES
Mail Communication revenue
m EUR
Dialogue Marketing revenue
m EUR
-0.6%
-2.8%
1,738
1,727
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Parcel Germany volumes
m units
563
547
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Parcel Germany revenue
m EUR
+11.0%
+12.1%
1,062
273
246
947
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Parcel Europe revenue1)
DHL eCommerce revenue2)
m EUR
m EUR
Q1 2015
+25.8%
+4.8%
165
173
240
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Business Highlights
 Mail Communication revenue decline in line with
modest volume decline (-1.7%)
 Dialogue Marketing also with limited revenue
decline as price increases mostly compensate
volume decline (-9.8%)
 Parcel Germany revenue growth outpacing
strong volume growth of 11.0% supported by
price increases
 Robust organic growth in international Parcel
activities in and outside of Europe, also
supported by currency developments
302
Q1 2015
1) Parcel Europe ex Germany; 2) Parcel outside Europe
PAGE 33
PeP – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
3,960
4,101
+3.6%
Revenue increase reflecting growth across eCommerce - Parcel activities as well
as price increases in Post products
EBIT
396
399
+0.8%
EBIT growth constrained by rise in wages and transportation costs as well as
expenses for international expansion of eCommerce - Parcel
Operating
Cash Flow
137
185
+35.0%
OCF increase driven by positive working capital development
38
64
+68.4%
Investments mainly directed to parcel infrastructure expansion
Revenue
Capex
Management comments
PAGE 34
Post - eCommerce – Parcel: NEW REVENUE REPORTING STRUCTURE
Before 2014
From 2014
MAIL Division
Post
Mail Communication
All letters including import /export from
and to Germany. Also includes new
services like E-Post and ADAC
Postbus
Dialogue Marketing
Press Services
Retail Outlets
2013 Revenue, restated: EUR 9,984m
Pension Services
Letters → Post
Global Mail
Parcel Germany
Parcels → eCommerce - Parcel
Asset shifts
Domestic Parcel in Czech
Republic, Netherlands, Belgium,
Poland and India
eCommerce - Parcel
Domestic and cross-border parcels and
parcel operations in selective markets
2013 Revenue, restated: EUR 5,307m
PAGE 35
PeP 2020 TARGET: SUPPORTED BY MIX SHIFT TOWARDS PARCEL
PeP: Revenue Mix
2010
PeP: Market Assumptions
eCommerce & Parcel
2014
Market growth assumption (in EUR), 2011-20, p.a.:
+5-7% Germany domestic; +8% international domestic
Price regulation:
No regulatory price cap
19%
36%
81%
Mail division excl. Parcel
Parcel Germany
64%
Post
eCommerce - Parcel
E-commerce trend to continue to drive mix shift from letter to
parcel products
Post
Expected average letter volume decline of -2 to -3% p.a.
Price regulation:
price cap = CPI - 0.2%
1)
Stamp price increase :
+2.8% in 2013
+1.6% in 2014
+1.0% as of Jan 1, 2015
e-post revenues:
> 300m in 2014
1) Average increase on basket of regulated products, applicable to EUR ~3.3bn directly affected Post revenue
PAGE 36
PeP: DHL eCommerce IS AN ESTABLISHED PLAYER IN THE US
Consolidation and sortation of domestic and international parcels
#4 in US B-2-USPS consolidator market (SmartMail® product)
eCommerce Business Description
Domestic distribution capacities:
Adding fulfillment services and products in
collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
 Established US presence based on former
Global Mail activities
 Comprehensive e-commerce fulfillment solution
established
 Last-mile delivery via USPS
 Best-in-class supply chain technology combined with
proven regional order fulfillment and domestic &
international delivery services
 Fully integrated into global postal network for
international parcel delivery
 iCart product offers fully landed cost calculator for
international shipments to customers – integrated
in product offering since 2013
 First dedicated eFulfillment warehouse in
Columbus,OH launched in March
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
PAGE 37
PeP: BLUE DART PROVIDES BASE FOR DHL eCommerce IN ASIA
South Asia’s premier express and integrated package distribution company
Domestic market leader for B2B and B2C parcels in India
Business Description
Domestic distribution capacities:
Adding fulfillment services and products in
collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
 Fully integrated domestic air & ground network, last mile
deliver partly through third parties
 First eFulfillment facility approaching go-live in
Delhi with first global customer
 52% market share in air express
 Facility built as a model for potential further rollout of
e-fulfillment centers in India and other Asian markets
 15% market share in ground express
 65 ground hubs and 7 air network stations
 Roll out of Smart Truck technology to enhance
productivity and drive efficiencies
 Blue Dart will provide front-end and customer interface
as well as delivery, DHL Supply Chain will contribute
warehousing and 3PL expertise
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
PAGE 38
WORKING DAYS GERMANY
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q1
61.6
62.2
62.2
61.2
Q2
60.3
59.3
59.3
62.3
H1
121.9
121.5
121.5
123.5
Q3
65.8
65.8
66
65,8
9M
187.7
187.3
187.5
189.3
Q4
60.2
60.9
63
62,2
H2
126
126.7
129
128
FY
247.9
248.2
250.5
251.5
PAGE 39
EXPRESS
PAGE 40
EXPRESS: STRONG TDI GROWTH CONTINUES
Time Definite International (TDI)1)
Revenues per day in EUR m
Business Highlights
+3.5%
35.2
34.0
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 Volume growth outpacing revenue growth due to
lower fuel surcharge
 Strong focus on customers and service quality
has driven further market share gains
Time Definite International (TDI)
Shipments per day ‘000s
+7.1%
709
662
Q1 2014
 Strong start into the year with TDI volume growth
of +7.1% ( MEA +12.4%, Europe +10.2%,
Asia/Pacific +5.4%, Americas + 0.6%)
 Growth supported by continuous expansion and
improvement of our leading global network,
including hub investments across all major
geographies
Q1 2015
1) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Data aggregated with same currency rate
PAGE 41
EXPRESS – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
2,879
3,240
+12.5%
Strong TDI volume growth supported by positive FX effects. Organic revenue
growth at 2.3% mainly impacted by significant decrease in fuel surcharge revenue
EBIT
276
332
+20.3%
Strong EBIT growth driven by TDI volume growth and network efficiencies, EBIT
margin up 60bp yoy to 10.2%
Operating
Cash Flow
285
334
+17.2%
Strong operating cash flow increase in line with trend in EBIT performance
39
75
+92.3%
Main investments going towards hub and gateway infrastructure upgrade as well
as air fleet modernization and expansion
Revenue
Capex
Management comments
PAGE 42
DHL EXPRESS: GLOBAL TDI MARKET SHARES
Continued TDI leadership across all regions outside the Americas
Americas [EUR 6.8bn ]
Europe [EUR 6.0bn]
3%
1%
Asia Pacific [EUR 6.8bn]
12%
+1% 18%
21%
10%
41%
46%
44%
4%
12%
11%
+2%
+1%
32%
20%
25%
Global [EUR 20.1bn]
+x%
DHL
Change vs 2012 MI study
TNT
UPS
FedEx
12%
Others
6%
Source: MI study 2014
EU : AT, DE, DK, ES, FR, IT, NL, RU, TR, UK
AM : BR, CA, CL, CO, CR, GT, MX, PA, PE, US
AP : CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG
GLOBAL : EU + AM + AP + (AE + SA + ZA)
34%
+1%
22%
26%
PAGE 43
DHL EXPRESS FOCUS ON TDI
Continue successful FOCUS strategy
2009 Revenue distribution
2014 Revenue distribution
2%
3%
11%
12%
14%
8%
5%
58%
12%
TDI
75%
TDD
DDI
DDD
ACS / Other
DHL Express Core Product
TDI (Time Definite International)
The premium segment within Express Industry
Time Definite = Dedicated delivery at a
scheduled time of day
International = Cross-Border Shipment (intra- or between
continents)
TDI: requires dense and broad international network
TDD: Time Definite Domestic Revenue Share = Delivery at scheduled time
within one country.
DDI: Day Definite International
DDD: Day Definite Domestic
ACS: Air Capacity Sales (re-sale of spare capacity on dedicated fleet to optimize
utilization, not sold by core Express sales teams)
PAGE 44
DHL EXPRESS: VIRTUAL AIRLINE MODEL & AIR CAPACITY SALES
Air Capacity Sales
Virtual Airline
Approx. 500 airports and 22 major hubs connected
through
Block Space Agreement, guaranteed air
cargo product.
1. Dedicated air: >250 aircrafts with 17 partner airlines on
>600 daily flights
2. Purchased air: >300 commercial airlines with >1.800
daily flights
Capacity Commitment
BSA
CORE
TDI
CAPACITY
FLEX
22%
0 - 90 Days (incl.
Purchased Air)
91 - 360 Days
52%
26%
ACS
GUAR.
Express TDI core product, capacity
based on average utilization, adjusted on a
daily basis
CORE Flex & Air Capacity Sales Flex, a
set amount of the Total Spare Capacity to
be utilised for TDI core volume surge
and/or air cargo filler traffic
Air cargo guaranteed, a set amount of the
Total Spare Capacity guaranteed for priority
traffic & key customers
Fixed
PAGE 45
FORWARDING, FREIGHT
PAGE 46
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT: WORKING TOWARDS STABILISATION
Business Highlights
Air freight ‘000s Tons
 Air and ocean volume growth slowing, mainly due
to EMEA and AP regions
+0.3%
935
932
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 GP/unit stable in Air Freight at low levels and
Ocean Freight GP/unit decline reflect continued
difficult industry environment
 Weak divisional EBIT performance due to
complexity of NFE implementation and associated
organizational changes
Ocean freight ‘000s TEU1)
+2.3%
688
704
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 New management sets priority on improving
business performance – with unchanged
commitment to transformation based on
comprehensive review
1) Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit
PAGE 47
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT– DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Revenue
Gross Profit
EBIT
Operating
Cash Flow
Capex
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
Management comments
3,523
3,789
+7.6%
Revenue increase driven by volume growth in ocean freight and FX
843
859
+1.9%
Continued difficult market environment with margin pressure in both AFR and OFR
49
17
-65.3%
Further affected by ongoing NFE transformation program and low GP/unit in AFR
and OFR
-100
-160
-60.0%
Mainly reflecting EBIT decline and unfavorable working capital development
22
40
+81.8%
Low capex reflecting asset light business model
PAGE 48
SUPPLY CHAIN
PAGE 49
SUPPLY CHAIN: SOLID PERFORMANCE GIVEN RESTRUCTURING
New signings, EUR m1)
Business Highlights
260
175
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
1) Annualized revenue
 Revenue growth across all verticals, strongest in
Automotive, Consumer sectors and Life Sciences
& Healthcare
Revenue by sector Q1 2015
Others
Williams Lea
Energy
Automotive
10%
Retail
5%
23%
2%
11%
19%
10%
 Sound order intake in Q1 (EUR 260m) especially
in Automotive, Consumer and Life Sciences &
Healthcare
Technology
Consumer
20%
 Further steps taken in implementing Strategy
2020 as presented at last Capital Markets Tutorial
 Restructuring charges cover implementation of
consistent and lean organizational structure,
addressing underperforming business areas as
well as productivity measures
Life Sciences & Healthcare
PAGE 50
SUPPLY CHAIN – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
Management comments
3,506
3,942
+12.4%
FX benefits mainly driven by stronger USD and GBP. Organic revenue up 0.8%
supported by new business across all regions (UK,US and APAC) but still held
back by a deliberate customer loss in North America
EBIT
85
53
-37.6%
EBIT declining mainly due to restructuring costs as timing effects from real estate
transactions
Operating
Cash Flow
28
-112
n.a.
Capex
65
73
12.3%
Revenue
Cash flow down yoy mainly due to timing effects
Higher capex reflecting phasing of new contract investments
PAGE 51
SUPPLY CHAIN: TAKING PERFORMANCE TO THE NEXT LEVEL
DHL Supply Chain is a successful member of DPDHL family of divisions
Strong and increasing returns…
…based on resilient, asset-light business model
Value Added Services
ROCE, incl. Goodwill
18%
14%
13%
12%
15%
Warehousing
45%
Williams Lea
10%
Transportation
27%
2011
2012
2013
2014
Supply Chain Strategy 2020 set to deliver further performance improvement
New 2020
margin target:
EBIT margin
1.8%
2.7%
2010
2011
2.9%
3.1%
3,2%
4-5%
For more information
DPDHL Capital Markets Tutorial Workshop
London, November 13, 2014
2012
2013
2014
2020
http://www.dpdhl.com/en/investors/events_and_prese
ntations/capital_markets_day.html
PAGE 52
Appendix
PAGE 53
Q1 REFLECTS TRANSFORMATION & RESTRUCTURING FOCUS
Flat Group EBIT with divisional performance showing the expected mixed picture
REVENUE
EBIT
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Change
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Change
PeP
3,960
4,101
+3.6%
396
399
+0.8%
Express
2,879
3,240
+12.5%
276
332
+20.3%
Forwarding, Freight
3,523
3,789
+7.6%
49
17
-65.3%
Supply Chain
3,506
3,942
+12.4%
85
53
-37.6%
Group
13,569
14,767
+8.8%
727
720
-1.0%
PAGE 54
GROUP P&L Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
13,569
14,767
+8.8%
Revenue development supported by currency effects. Organic growth of 2.1%
with growth in all four Divisions / industries. Impact also from lower energy prices
EBIT
727
720
-1.0%
Group EBIT about flat as strong Express growth is offset by transformation and
restructuring related costs in Forwarding and Supply Chain
t/o PeP
396
399
+0.8%
Static operating profit as revenue growth driven by eCommerce - Parcel activities
and price increases is countered by factor cost inflation
Revenue
Management comments
t/o DHL
410
402
-2.0%
Continued strong performance across all major metrics in Express. Declines in
Supply Chain and Forwarding, Freight EBIT mainly reflect planned restructuring
and transformation initiatives
Financial result
-80
-64
+20.0%
Improvement driven by benefits from lower interest rate environment on interest
expense for bonds and provisions as well as FX effects
-123
-115
+6.5%
Tax rate of 17.5% in line with ~18% full-year guidance
Cons. net profit1)
502
495
-1.4%
Net profit and EPS about flat, in line with stable operating profit development
EPS (in EUR)
0.42
0.41
-2.4%
Strong increase in net profit attributable to non-controlling interests
Taxes
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
PAGE 55
FREE CASH FLOW Q1 2015
Seasonal factors drive usual Free Cash Outflow in Q1
EUR m
Cash from operating activities
before changes in Working Capital
Changes in Working Capital
Net cash from operating activities
after changes in Working Capital
Net Capex
Net M&A
Net Interest
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
793
737
-709
-658
84
79
-401
-526
0
0
Free Cash Flow decline due to increased capex spend reflecting
continued investments in our growth markets as well as timing
effects
-31
70
Net interest line benefitted from one-off effect of EUR 76m related
to monetization of interest rate swaps
-348
-377
Q1 cash generation as every year burdened by payment of fullyear contribution for civil servant pension scheme (EUR 530m)
Tight management of Group working capital helped to minimize
flow-back of typical year-end cash effects
FFO/Debt at 24.9% (year-end 2014: 27.7%)
PAGE 56
NET DEBT (-)/LIQUIDITY (+)
Seasonality drives net debt increase as usual in Q1
Annual contribution to civil servant pension of EUR 530m (o.w. 130m in EBIT/OCF
and 400m in W/C)
in EUR m
737
-658
-526
70
-1,499
-201
-2,077
Net debt
(Dec 31, 2014)
OCF before
change in W/C
Changes
in W/C
Net
capex
Net
interest
Other
effects
Net debt
(Mar 31, 2015)
PAGE 57
IMPROVING CASH FLOW GENERATION
Sustained increase in Operating Cash Flow
 Provides funding for investment in future growth, in particular in Parcel and Express
 While simultaneously driving improved Free Cash Flow generation
2,989
2,371
2,2442)
OCF:1,927
3,040
2010-14 CAGR:
OCF: >10%
1345
FCF: >20%
1551
Net capex:
>10%
in EURm
2010
Use of OCF:
2011
Net Capex
2012
Other
1)
2013
2014
FCF
1) includes net M&A and net interest 2) Adjusted for non-recurring items
PAGE 58
REMINDER ON PENSIONS: DEFINED BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS (DBO)
DBO pensions in Germany
in EUR m
 No regulatory funding requirement
 Pensions paid partially from plan assets and partially
from current OCF
Impact of declining discount rates
 Balance sheet: net pension provision up 1.5bn in Q1 2015 due to
another step-down in Euro discount rate
 P&L: slight increase in staff costs expected in 2015 (mainly due to
higher current service costs), mostly offset by small decline in
finance costs
 Cash flow: cash outflow not directly affected as actual pension
payments and employer contributions to plan assets not affected
by fluctuations in applied discount rate levels
20,484
Total DBO
18,099
Plan assets
10,961
Net Pension
Provision
7,138
8,635
Dec. 31,
2014
Mar. 31,
2015
11,849
2014
Q1 2015
Average Discount Rate (quarter-end)
2.62%
2.04%
EUR Discount Rate (quarter-end)
2.25%
1.50%
Lower discount rates increase balance sheet liability but have no direct impact on cash generation
PAGE 59
STABLE CAPITAL INTENSITY EXPECTED
Gross Capex / Sales ratio Group & by division
Gross Capex intensity, 2007–2014 average
6.0%
EXPRESS
~4%
5.0%
PeP
~3%
4.0%
SUPPLY CHAIN
3.0%
2.0%
FORWARDING
~2%
~1%
1.0%
GROUP AVERAGE
~3%
0.0%
2007
2008
EXPRESS
2009
GROUP
2010
2011
PeP
2012
2013
SUPPLY CHAIN
2014
DGF
PAGE 60
STRATEGY 2015 HAS DRIVEN SIGNIFICANT OPERATING IMPROVEMENT
DHL EBIT margins(2): good progress, more to come
to contribute to ~10% DHL EBIT CAGR target
PeP: EBIT stabilization delivered
1,286
in EUR bn
1,298
10.2%
1)
1,199
Strategy 2015
EBIT target:
1,120
1,107
4.4%
1)
min. EUR 1bn
2010
2011
2012
2.9%
1.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2013
2014
2010
Q1 2015
Express: strong improvement
Strategy 2020 target:
3% EBIT CAGR
2013-20
Supply Chain: steady progress
Forwarding, Freight: currently affected
by NFE and low GP margins
1) Reported FY 12 EBIT including EUR -151m one-off effect from VAT settlement; Reported FY13 was restated by EUR ~60m for asset shift from DHL implemented on January 1, 2014
2) EBIT margin, last 12 months (rolling)
INVESTOR RELATIONS | MAY 2015
PAGE 61
OUR AMBITION FOR THE EMERGING MARKETS
Group revenue footprint
78%
70%
22%
30%
Today
2013
Mature Markets
Target
2020
target
Building on our
leading market
positions in growth
regions, 30%
emerging market
targets is
AMBITIOUS BUT
ACHIEVABLE
Emerging Markets
PAGE 62
FOCUS. CC/OTHER COSTS
CC / Other cost, as % of revenue
CC / Other cost structure, 2014
Corporate bodies (e.g. CB, SVB)
and legal obligations/ foundations
Investments into growth &
cross-divisional initiatives
0.8%
0.7%
20%
20%
0.6%
0.5%
TARGET
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
60%
0.1%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2020
Core Corporate Center costs
PAGE 63
DISCLAIMER
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT ARE NEITHER REPORTED RESULTS NOR OTHER
HISTORICAL INFORMATION. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS AND
UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED IN
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. MANY OF THESE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES RELATE TO FACTORS THAT
ARE BEYOND DEUTSCHE POST AG’S ABILITY TO CONTROL OR ESTIMATE PRECISELY, SUCH AS FUTURE MARKET
AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THE ABILITY TO
SUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE ACQUIRED BUSINESSES AND ACHIEVE ANTICIPATED SYNERGIES AND THE ACTIONS
OF GOVERNMENT REGULATORS. READERS ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, WHICH APPLY ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. DEUTSCHE
POST AG DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY RELEASE ANY REVISIONS TO THESE FORWARDLOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT EVENTS OR CIRCUMSTANCES AFTER THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO
SUBSCRIBE FOR OR BUY ANY SECURITY, NOR SHALL THERE BE ANY SALE, ISSUANCE OR TRANSFER OF THE
SECURITIES REFERRED TO IN THIS PRESENTATION IN ANY JURISDICTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF APPLICABLE
LAW.
COPIES OF THIS PRESENTATION AND ANY DOCUMENTATION RELATING TO THE OFFER ARE NOT BEING, AND
MUST NOT BE, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, MAILED OR OTHERWISE FORWARDED, DISTRIBUTED OR SENT IN OR
INTO OR FROM AUSTRALIA, CANADA OR JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE
UNLAWFUL.
THIS DOCUMENT REPRESENTS THE COMPANY‘S JUDGMENT AS OF DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
PAGE 64
INVESTOR RELATIONS CONTACTS
Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations
• +49 228 182 63000
• E-mail: [email protected]
Robert Schneider
• +49 228 182 63201
Sebastian Slania
• +49 228 182 63203
Sarah Bowman
• +1 212 381 3463
Christian Rottler
• +49 228 182 63206
PAGE 65

delivery - Deutsche Post DHL Group

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