GDI - Zurich 6-13-16.pptx - Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute

GDI - Zurich 6-13-16.pptx - Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute

Die Zukunft der Weltreligionen
The Future of World Religions
Vortrag / Speech
Alan Cooperman
Fakten, Zahlen und Prognosen für 2050
Facts, Figures and Projections for 2050
GDI Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute
Langhaldenstrasse 21
CH-8803 Rüschlikon/Zürich
Telefon +41 44 724 61 11
[email protected]
www.gdi.ch
13.06.16 The Future of World Religions:
Which Are Growing, Which Are
Shrinking, and Why
A presentation for the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute
Alan Cooperman
Director of Religion Research
Guiding Principles
§  Strict non-advocacy stance
§  Rely on rigorous social science methodologies
(polling, demographic analysis, etc.)
§  Complete transparency and candor in reporting the
findings
§  Clarity of presentation that seeks to marry
scholarship with journalistic storytelling
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1 13.06.16 How we measure religious groups &
project their future
General global demographics
shaping the future
Characteristics of religious groups
Projection results
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Step 1: Collect Census & Survey Data on
Religious Affiliation in Every Country
Government
Academic
Non-Academic
Pew Global Attitudes
Project
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2 13.06.16 Step 2: Estimate Religious Composition of
Each Country
Size of Major Religious Groups, 2010
Percentage of the global population
Pew Research Center. Global Religious Landscape, December 2012. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
*Includes followers of African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, Native American religions and Australian aboriginal religions.
**Includes Baha’i faith, Jains, Sikhs, Shintoists, Taoists, followers of Tenrikyo, Wiccans, Zoroastrians and many other faiths.
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Step 3: Collect Data on Age, Fertility, Migration,
Switching by Religion
Age
Fertility
Religious switching
Migration
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3 13.06.16 Structure
2010
Fertility
Step 4:
Migration
2030
Multistate
demographic
projections
with several
scenarios
2050
Switching
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How we measure religious groups &
project their future
General global demographics
shaping the future
Characteristics of religious groups
Projection results
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4 13.06.16 Total Fertility Worldwide, 1950-2050
Number of children an average woman is expected to have in her lifetime
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Lighter color denotes projected figures.
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Average Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950-2050
Average number of years a newborn is expected to live, by year of birth
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Lighter color denotes projected figures.
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5 13.06.16 Projected Annual Growth Rate of Country
Populations, 2010-2050
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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How we measure religious groups &
project their future
General global demographics
shaping the future
Characteristics of religious groups
Projection results
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6 13.06.16 Median Age of Religious Groups, 2010
Pew Research Center, “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050”
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Age Distribution of Religious Groups, 2010
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
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7 13.06.16 Total Fertility Rate by Religion 2010-2015
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.
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Fertility Rates Are Changing
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8 13.06.16 Life Expectancy at Birth by Religious Group,
2010-2055
Note: Data on life expectancy differences by religion within countries are not available. These results assume that within each country, all major religious groups have the
same life expectancy at birth. Global differences between religious groups result from differences in the geographic distribution of the groups. Differences in life expectancy 17
between periods are calculated based on unrounded values. Source: Calculations based on United Nations life tables, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
Christian Migration, 2010-2015
Net movement, by regions. This chart reads across. For example, an estimated 2.34 million
Christians will have emigrated from Latin America to North America in this five-year period.
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections for 2010-2050.
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9 13.06.16 Projected Cumulative Change Due to Religious
Switching, 2010-2050
Unaffiliated
Muslims
Folk Religions
Other Religions
Hindus
Jews
Buddhists
Christians
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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How we measure religious groups &
project their future
General global demographics
shaping the future
Characteristics of religious groups
Projection results
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10 13.06.16 Islam Growing Fastest
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.
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Projected Change in
Global Population:
2010-2050
Number of people in
billions
With the exception of
Buddhists, all of the major
religious groups are expected to
increase in number by 2050.
Muslims are projected to grow fastest.
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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11 13.06.16 Projected Change in
Global Population:
2010-2050
Percentage of global
population
Some groups will not keep pace with
global population growth, and, as a
result, are expected to make up a smaller
percentage of the world’s population in
2050 than they did in 2010.
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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Long-Term Projections of Christian and Muslim
Shares of World’s Population
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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12 13.06.16 Countries That Will No Longer Have a Christian
Majority in 2050
% of % of Majority religion popula5on Majority/largest popula5on 2010 2050 2010 religion 2050 Australia Chris2ans 67.3 Chris2ans 47.0 United Kingdom Chris2ans 64.3 Chris2ans 45.4 Benin Chris2ans 53.0 Chris2ans 48.5 France Chris2ans 63.0 Unaffiliated 44.1 Republic of Macedonia Chris2ans 59.3 Muslims 56.2 New Zealand Chris2ans 57.0 Unaffiliated 45.1 Bosnia-­‐Herzegovina Chris2ans 52.3 Muslims 49.4 Netherlands Chris2ans 50.6 Unaffiliated 49.1 Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.
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Global Distribution of Christians
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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13 13.06.16 Global Distribution of Christians
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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Global Distribution of Christians
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
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14 13.06.16 Population Growth of the World’s Largest Religions in India
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.
Note: “Other” includes Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Jews, adherents of folk religions and those with no religious affiliation.
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Projected Religious
Composition of the
U.S., 2010-2050
Pew Research Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
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15 13.06.16 Historic Trends in Religious Affiliation
% of U.S. adults who identify as…
100 %
90
80
70
Protestant
62%
60
48%
50
40
30
27
25
Catholic
20
21
10
0
None
5
1972
1982
1992
2002
Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2014. Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
2014
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END OF THE WORLD!
European Unity
Could Be Harmed
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16 13.06.16 END OF THE WORLD!
A thorough HegelianLacanian analysis of social,
psychological, and historical
causes
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END OF THE WORLD!
All Greek workers
must receive full
pensions
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17 13.06.16 END OF THE WORLD.
Some revisions to our demographic
projections for the world’s religious groups
may be necessary.
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Contact Information
Alan Cooperman
Director, Religion Research
[email protected]
Subscribe to our daily and weekly e-newsletters:
http://www.pewresearch.org/religion-newsletter/
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