Vorlage für Dps - AMS

Employment Dynamics in Germany:
Lessons to be learned from the Hartz reforms
Paper presented to the conference of the GTZ Sector Network
for Sustainable Economic Development in MENA: “Employment:
Challenge for Economic Development in the MENA Region” in
Istanbul, 7 November 2007.
paper
Günther Schmid, Simone Modrack
ISSN Nr. 1011-9523
Social Science Research Center Berlin
Research Area:
Education, Work, and Life Chances
Research Unit:
Labor Market Policy and Employment
http://www.wzb.eu/ars/ab
[email protected]
Order number: SP I 2008-102
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) •
Reichpietschufer 50 • D-10785 Berlin • www.wzb.eu
discussion
February 2008
Abstract
This paper sets out to explore the black box of recent employment dynamics in Germany and thus to identify positive and negative implications that might be of interest for
future policymaking. The starting point of our analysis is the question as to whether
recent employment growth in Germany is the result of labour market reforms or is
instead a mere by-product of the general economic upswing. In order to tackle this question, we assess German employment performance over the last ten years and also
compare the determinants of the latest two economic upturns (1998–2000 and 2005–
2007). Guided by an analytical framework that stresses the complementarity of institutions responding to shocks, we examine possible factors behind employment dynamics.
The following step is to sum up and discuss the major aspects of the recent German
labour market reforms (the so-called Hartz reforms). Taken together, our empirical evidence indicates that the recent employment growth might indeed have been facilitated
by the labour market reforms. The reforms have led to considerable improvements, but
they also demonstrate serious shortcomings.
Zusammenfassung
Das vorliegende Papier versucht die Hintergründe der aktuellen Beschäftigungsdynamik
in Deutschland aufzudecken und Implikationen für die künftige Politikgestaltung zu
identifizieren. Der Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung liegt in der Frage, ob das aktuelle
Beschäftigungswachstum in Deutschland das Ergebnis der jüngsten Arbeitsmarktreformen oder lediglich ein Nebenprodukt des allgemeinen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs
ist. Im Lichte dieser Problematik wird die deutsche Beschäftigungsperformanz der vergangenen zehn Jahre beleuchtet; außerdem werden die Bestimmungsfaktoren der letzten
beiden Aufschwünge (1998–2000 und 2005–2007) miteinander verglichen. Auf Grundlage eines analytischen Rahmens, der die Komplementarität von auf Schocks reagierenden Institutionen betont, werden mögliche Erklärungen für die aktuelle Beschäftigungsdynamik diskutiert. In einem weiteren Schritt werden die wichtigsten Punkte der jüngsten deutschen Arbeitsmarktreformen (der sogenannten Hartz-Reformen) zusammengefasst und diskutiert. Alles in allem zeigt die empirische Evidenz, dass das aktuelle Beschäftigungswachstum tatsächlich von den Arbeitsmarktreformen gestützt wurde. Die
Reformen führten zu beachtlichen Verbesserungen, leiden jedoch auch unter schwerwiegenden Mängeln.
Contents
1.
Introduction ..................................................................................................... 3
2.
Stylised facts about the German employment performance ....................... 4
3.
An analytical framework and possible determinants .................................. 6
3.1
Recent employment boom: a result of successful reform or
merely induced by the economic upturn? ................................................ 9
3.2
Possible factors explaining German employment dynamics:
external and internal shocks or institutional misfit? .............................. 12
4.
German employment policy: the major reforms ........................................ 16
5.
Lesson to be learned from recent German labour market reforms ......... 21
Literature ................................................................................................................... 23
Appendix ................................................................................................................... 26
1.
Introduction
It is not long ago that Germany was considered the ‘ill man’ of Europe. In nearly every
study ranking EU member states or OECD countries, Germany trailed the pack. The
country seemed to be the prototype for an over-regulated labour market, the prototype
for low growth dynamics, the prototype for low employment intensity of growth, and
the prototype for a business-unfriendly bureaucracy. Today, though, Germany seems to
be back on track:
• In 2006, for the first time, Germany was named one of the 20 most business-friendly
bureaucracies in the world in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business Indicator’.
• Economic growth was 2.9 percent both in 2006 and in the first half of 2007, thus surpassing for the first time the average growth rates of the 15 old EU member states.
• The employment intensity of economic growth has been high: 630,000 regular jobs
were created in 2006, and 430,000 new jobs were created in the first half of 2007
alone.
• Unemployment fell from 4.8 million in July 2005 to 3.4 million in October 2007.
• Most notably, the employment rates of older workers (aged 55–64) leaped from 37.2
percent in 2000 to 52 percent in 2007.
• The government deficit of 3.6 percent in 2005 has been dissolved and is expected to
amount to zero or even move into positive figures in 2008.
Many claim that this success is the result of the recent labour market reforms – the socalled Hartz reforms and the ‘Agenda 2010’ programme initiated by former Chancellor
Gerhard Schröder – while others maintain that it is due to the impact of additional
reforms launched by the Grand Coalition government, especially those reforms proposed by the conservative Christian Democrats. A third view sees the success as the
result of the economic upswing, in other words, as the mere reflection of good luck, and
many are still worried that Germany’s inability to tackle basic reforms will become
apparent with the next downturn.
It is impossible to untie this Gordian knot, and at the same time it would be of no
help to cut through it like the famed Alexander the Great. Drawing conclusions requires
at least some basic understanding of how the German model works. And even if the
truth is that ‘there is no such model’, at least not of a consistent and stable kind, then
there are certainly still general traits that provide clues as to ‘what works’ and ‘what
does not work’ with regard to the creation of sustainable employment.
The paper addresses this task proceeding in four steps. First, we present some
indepth information about Germany’s employment performance over the last ten years.
In a second step, we outline the possible factors behind success or failure against the
background of an analytical framework, and we apply this framework to Germany by
including an inventive assessment of its employment dynamics. The third section provides detailed information on the recent German labour market reforms and presents
3
circumstantial evidence of their effectiveness. Finally, we suggest lessons that can be
learned and we generalise our results on the basis of the analytical framework.
2.
Stylised facts about the German employment performance
Looking at employment rates in Germany, the old EU member states and the USA, it
becomes evident that in terms of employment Germany is actually not doing so badly.
Since 1997, the employment rate has risen by more than 5 percentage points and is
slowly approaching the U.S. level. In comparison with other EU-15 countries, Germany’s rate slightly exceeds the average (Figure 1, Appendix). However, the overall
employment rate is only one of many indicators that measure employment performance.
This section, therefore, briefly outlines the broader picture of employment-related indicators in Germany.
When we look at unemployment rates, the comparison between Germany, the EU
and the USA turns out quite differently. For the last ten years, Germany has been
exhibiting significantly higher unemployment rates than both the EU-15 and the USA
(Figure 2, Appendix).1 Closer inspection reveals that the most problematic features in
Germany are the high share of long-term unemployment (more than 50 percent of the
unemployed have not worked for more than a year) and the concentration of unemployment in eastern Germany and some regions in the northwest of Germany, especially.2
The risk of unemployment is also unevenly distributed according to social group.
Looking at gender, women surprisingly have slightly lower unemployment rates than
men, although this trend only turned round during the last decade. Education is now the
most important determinant of individual unemployment. In 2005, unemployment rates
were exorbitantly high among unskilled workers and considerably lower for persons
with secondary education (Figure 3, Appendix). Among persons with tertiary education,
unemployment rates were below 5 percent. The skill gap is even more sharply reflected
in Germany’s employment rates. Whereas between 80 percent and 90 percent of highly
skilled people are employed, only between 40 percent and 70 percent of the low skilled
have a job; at 54.1 percent (for the 25–64 age group), Germany is among the low performers in this respect.
1
2
4
The reader should bear in mind that dealing with unemployment figures can be treacherous in
international comparisons, especially because of different counting methods. The official German
figures are based on registration at the public employment service, which includes, for instance,
unemployed people working less than 15 hours a week. According to the strict ILO concept, which –
for instance – does not count people as unemployed if they work regularly at least one hour per week,
the seasonally adjusted unemployment figure in June 2007 was only 2.65 million, and the corresponding unemployment rate 6.3 percent, compared to 3.81 million (or 9.1 percent) according to the
registration concept.
Breaking down Germany’s regions into the approximately 180 administrative units of the public
employment service, the unemployment rate gap ranged from 4.3 percent in Freising (near Munich)
to 24.1 percent in Sangerhausen (Sachsen-Anhalt in eastern Germany) in 2005.
The focus on particular age groups is endorsed by the European Employment Strategy (EES), which has set specific numerical benchmarks to be attained by all member
states. By 2010, total employment rates should exceed 70 percent, while the employment rates of people aged 55–64 should surpass 50 percent. The EES did not set quantitative targets for young adults, however, because differences in youth employment are
mainly related to the diversity of educational systems.
As regards older employees, employment rates have increased significantly during
recent years. Due to extensive use of early pension options during the 1990s, the rate of
employment for 55–64 year-olds dropped to 38 percent in 1999. By 2006, this figure
had risen by 10 percentage points, most recently even exceeding the Lisbon goal and
surpassing the EU-15 average (Figure 4, Appendix).
Employment has expanded remarkably in Germany as stated at the beginning of
this paper, but what kind of jobs has been created? How far is the argument justified
that the quantity target is achieved at the cost of job quality, favouring the creation of
often inadequately insured ‘atypical’ jobs (such as marginal, part-time or temporary
employment) instead of ‘regular’ jobs subject to social security contributions? The data
for the last decade show that the number of standard employment relationships indeed
declined in Germany. As indicated above, however, this trend was reversed during the
most recent upswing (Figure 5, Appendix).
Looking at self-employment, the Hartz reforms sought to render this employment
option broadly accessible. A new self-employment grant – called ‘Ich-AG’ – was established to this end (see Section 3). Since the introduction of the measure in 2003, selfemployment has increased remarkably. As for employees with fixed-term contracts, it
can be said that temporary employment as a form of non-standard employment is on the
rise, as is part-time employment. Part-time employees already represent one quarter of
all employees, and there is an evident upward trend (Figure 5, Appendix).
Along with the introduction of the Hartz reforms, the legal parameters of marginal
employment have been overhauled as well. The overarching goal was to open up new
job opportunities within the marginal employment sector so as to increase the incentive
to take up gainful employment. A distinction was made between ‘mini-jobs’ and ‘midijobs’. Mini-jobs are defined as employment with monthly earnings of up to € 400,
whereas midi-jobs refer to monthly wages of between € 400 and € 800. Analysing the
numbers of midi-jobbers over recent years, it emerges that marginal employment is on
the rise, both in terms of exclusive and sideline jobs (Figure 6, Appendix).
The Hartz reforms were not only about creating more jobs, but about creating jobs
entailing coverage under the social security scheme. However, since social security contributions in Germany are paid by employers and employees in equal measure, there is a
trade-off. On the one hand, it is common sense that as many employees as possible
should be covered by social security and that the social security funds should take in as
many contributions as possible. On the other hand, employees are reluctant to take up
marginal jobs that are subject to social security contributions, for contributions disproportionately reduce their gross incomes.
5
The concept of midi-jobs was introduced in order to do justice to both of these two
conflicting goals. Midi-jobs are marginal employment relationships with monthly earnings of between € 400 and € 800. Unlike regular employment relationships, the share of
social security contributions paid by the employee is not a fixed percentage, rather
varies – according to monthly earnings – between 4 and 21.5 percent. Since their introduction in 2003, the number of midi-jobs has grown constantly (Figure 6, Appendix),
and the overwhelming majority have been occupied by women.
Finally, the increasing share of non-standard employment related to total employment is also reflected in labour productivity. Compared to the 1980s and early 1990s,
when Europe had equal or even higher productivity growth rates than the USA, the
dynamic of labour productivity per hour has weakened considerably over the last
decade. On average between 1997 and 2006, labour productivity per hour increased
only by 1.5 percent in the old EU-15 and by 1.6 percent in Germany compared with 2.4
percent in the USA.
So is there necessarily a trade-off between employment growth and productivity as
this last evidence seems to suggest? The aim of the following section is to examine this
question and to discuss possible determinants.
3.
An analytical framework and possible determinants
Learning lessons from the experience of one country requires some kind of theoretical
model, especially if countries with very different cultures and levels of economic development are compared. This is, however, not the place to outline such a model at any
length.3 The following figure is only a brief and superficial sketch of a possible analyticcal framework and its main propositions.
Figure 1: An analytical framework of employment dynamics
International Relations and Endogenous Changes
External
& Internal
Shocks
► Demography
► Migration
► Work Preferences
► Globalisation
► New Technologies
► Consumer Preferences
Demand Shocks
Supply Shocks
Work
Inactive Population
Active Labour Force
Supply
Employment
Demand
Goods & Services
Investment
Wages
Employability
Interaction of
Agents Guided
by Institutions
► Education & Skills
► Social Security
► Employment Protection
Productivity
► Technology & Capital
► Effective Demand
► Employment Regulation
Labour Market and Employment Policy
3
6
For more details, see Chapter 2 in Schmid (2002) and Chapter 3 in Schmid (forthcoming).
As the analytical framework indicates, employment dynamics are the result of a complex set of labour market and product market institutions responding to external as well
as internal shocks. Whether their responses are successful or not in terms of sustainable
employment growth and corresponding prosperity ultimately depends on their fit to the
external environment. The debate on optimal institutions is dominated by two particular
schools of thought. One the one hand, the regulation school argues that the market has
to be domesticated by law and state intervention. On the other, the deregulation school
advocates free markets and objects to any intervention, with the exception of minimum
standards and measures to mitigate poverty. We introduce this framework accompanied
by the proposition that both schools are one-sided and that ‘flexicurity systems’ based
on complementary institutions are a more appropriate structure. This proposition is
based on four central assumptions.
First, institutions – considered, very generally, as commonly acknowledged rules of
behaviour (North 1991) – not only restrict individual or collective agents in their activities (negative freedom), but also enable individual and collective agents to interact or
to cooperate successfully (positive freedom), especially by providing material and legal
infrastructure. Institutions thereby extend the expectation horizon of agents by means of
mutual trust, collectively usable resources and the guarantee of a safety net. For instance, employment regulation – through health and safety standards, restriction of child
labour, minimum wage settings, employment protection by means of prohibition of unfair dismissals and discrimination, and mandatory contributions to unemployment,
health and pension insurance – can alter the incentives of employers in a favourable
way. Under a carefully regulated system, the interest of employers lies in improving
workforce productivity by adopting safety and health standards, for instance, and by
training workers. And because the rules hold for all employers and are enforced by the
state, there is no possibility of cut-throat competition by means of drastic reductions in
quality standards. On the other hand, the existence of a universal safety net also relieves
employers of a quasi-feudal type of responsibility for their employees and enables them
to adjust the size of their workforces according to economic necessity.
On the supply side, labour law recognises the bargaining power disadvantage of
most workers compared to employers by ensuring individual rights such as maximum
working hours, entitlement to vacations and training, and collective rights such as freedom of association and collective bargaining. Under such carefully regulated systems, it
is in the employees’ own interest to cooperate with fellow workers, to be loyal to the
employer and to reveal their preferences by voice and not by exit. Moreover, social
security regulations, as well as universal vocational and educational standards, improve
the ability of employees to contribute to functional flexibility and, if necessary, to
regional mobility.
Second, continuous economic and social change (the external and internal ‘shocks’
in our framework) requires institutions that are able to quickly adjust to new situations
and uncertainties. State regulation is too inflexible to this end. ‘Flexicurity systems’,
therefore, are characterised by negotiated flexibility and negotiated security (Schmid
2007), which leaves the social partners, non-governmental organisations and other civil
7
agencies or decentralised governmental agencies substantial scope for self-regulation in
setting wages, employment and environmental standards on both the labour and product
markets. If there is one common element in the European Social Model in general, and
among the successful European employment systems in particular, the most prominent
feature is the ‘social dialogue’ in industrial relations (Freeman 2006). Apart from the
Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands as obvious strong cases in participatory
economic democracy, the recovery in Germany’s employment dynamics to a large extent can be traced back to the basically still intact strengths of social partnership. Even
the UK can be cited as good practice for social partnership in relation to the successful
implementation of a National Minimum Wage (Metcalf 2007).
Germany provides an important example of negotiated security especially with respect to vocational qualification standards that enhance (following successful bargaining
eventually legalised by the state) labour market transparency and occupational mobility.
As far as negotiated flexibility is concerned, the deep involvement of German employers and trade unions in the apprenticeship system is still an asset in ensuring that
skills are flexibly adapted to market needs. Even if one has to acknowledge increasing
skill deficits in Germany (especially at the level of engineering and other high-tech
skills), it is important to note the high presence and visibility of the social partners at the
local and regional level in Germany. This feature – and this is of particular interest for
developing countries – not only ensures that small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) in rural areas are endowed with marketable skills, it also prevents young people
from migrating (too early) into the large cities where the wages, but also the risk of unemployment, might be higher. It is also important to note that social partnership is playing an important role in harmonising (or at least furthering the mutual acceptance of)
vocational or professional standards between EU member states. This not only fosters
international labour mobility, but also the international competitiveness of SMEs.
Third, there is not one optimal ‘flexicurity system’, rather there are several possible
combinations depending on the state of economic and technological development, on
the local culture and on other historical predispositions. ‘Flexicurity Legoland’ Denmark, for instance, so highly praised these days as a best-practice model, represents just
one possibility among others. Based on the so-called ‘golden triangle’, the Danish
labour market is characterised, first, by high job turnover made possible through low job
security; second, by a generous welfare system, especially in the form of high unemployment benefits; third, by an active labour market policy aimed at enhancing employability and thereby employment security, especially through education and training
measures.4 However, the Danish flexicurity system can certainly not serve as a blueprint
for all European countries. Three aspects that might prevent other countries from imitating this model have to be emphasised: first, high budgetary costs based on excessively high taxes;5 second, long-established relationships of trust between the social part4
5
8
The best references for the Danish model are Bredgaard and Larsen (2005) and Madsen (2006).
These, incidentally, led to tax evasion, which was reflected in a high share of illegal work, as the
European Commission most recently reported on the basis of Eurobarometer surveys (Süddeutsche
Zeitung, October 10, 2007, p. 22).
ners; and, third, a high average skill level among workers combined with a production
system dominated by SMEs.
Nevertheless, even if the Danish flexicurity system seems to be an outstanding
model, and for the developing countries may even represent a kind of utopia, it contains
messages that can be generalised and adapted to other countries. One of these messages
is that high external flexibility can be traded in against high income security in the case
of intermittent unemployment, as well as against high public investment in the employability of workers through vocational education and training measures. The lesson from
the German counterpart is that low external flexibility can be traded in against high
internal numerical and functional flexibility. An essential element of the German success is the fact that the German trade unions as well as the German works councils have
negotiated many collective agreements at sectoral or firm level in which employees can
trade in working-time flexibility (for instance, through long-term working-time accounts)6 and even wage flexibility for employment security.7
Fourth, sustainable employment dynamics depend on a combination of demandand supply-side policies. Without effective demand, supply-side strategies will dry up
or lead to high unemployment or underemployment, and without employable supply,
demand-side strategies will fall short or lead to wage inflation. The new growth theory
(Aghion et al. 1999) provides persuasive arguments and empirical evidence that education & skills combined with high technology & capital is the most important driver for
sustainable employment dynamics. In addition, the theory of spatial economics (Krugman 1991) draws attention to the fact that in the long run, equal distribution of investment among regions and social groups is more effective than aiming these investments
at only a few localities or specific social classes. One reason that Germany is lagging
behind the USA for productivity growth rates is the slow diffusion of new information
and communication technology, which, in turn, is the consequence of unequal distribution of investment in education and technology.
In a nutshell, we argue that employment is the outcome of interactions between
labour supply and labour demand. Supply and demand are constantly exposed to external and internal shocks, and these shocks are absorbed by the interactions of thousands
of agents guided by institutions. How did the German employment system react to these
shocks?
3.1
Recent employment boom: a result of successful reform or merely induced by
the economic upturn?
There is an ongoing debate about the driving forces behind the recent employment
growth in Germany. Some people claim that the recent employment miracle and the
6
7
See, for instance, Wotschack and Hildebrandt (2007).
For a discussion of the strategy of ‘flexicurity’, which the European Commission has adopted as an
overarching guideline for the European Employment Strategy (EES), see Auer (2007), European
Commission (2006, 2007) and Schmid (2002, 2007, forthcoming).
9
visible decline in unemployment are the result of the Hartz reforms. Others maintain
that the favourable situation has nothing to do with these reforms. On the contrary. They
argue that the recent increase in employment is weaker than in the last economic upswing (1998–2000), and that the decreasing unemployment rates are nothing but the
result of a demographically induced shrinking of labour force supply. For the time
being, there is no reliable empirical analysis offering support for either of the two competing perspectives. Even the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat) is at loggerheads over this question. Drawing on detailed descriptive data, the
majority of the council holds the view that the Hartz reforms are likely to have brought
about a positive employment effect, while a minority vote, namely, Peter Bofinger, has
presented his own calculations supporting the view that the recent employment growth
is merely a consequence of the general economic upswing. According to him, the rosy
picture is the result of ‘an extraordinarily dynamic world economy’. In the same vein,
he maintains that the fall in unemployment is caused by demographic change as well as
new ‘make-work’ measures under labour market policy (Sachverständigenrat 2007,
pp. 325–343).
To shed more light on this important question, we carry out a simple but powerful
empirical exercise which consists in breaking employment dynamics down into its main
determinants. Decomposing GDP per capita into productivity per hour (efficiency indicator), working hours per employed person (work-sharing component), employment
rate per working-age population (behavioural component indicating the degree of labour
market integration), and working-age population related to total population (demographic component) allows us to compare economic growth within the two latest upswings (1998–2000 and 2005–2007) and, hence, enables us to open to some extent the
black box of employment dynamics (Table 1).8
Table 1: Decomposition of the yearly change in economic growth into indicators of
efficiency, work-sharing, labour market integration and population structure,
1998–2000 and 2005–2007
∆ln(GDP/P) = ∆ln(GDP/H) + ∆ln(H/E) + ∆ln(E/WAP) + ∆ln(WAP/P)
1998–2000
2005–2007
GDP/P
GDP/H
H/E
E/WAP
WAP/P
2.31
2.99
=
=
1.83
2.71
+
+
–1.02
–1.08
+
+
1.78
2.50
+
+
–0.28
–1.13
= Gross Domestic Product per Capita (basis: current prices, current PPPs)
= Gross Domestic Product per Hour
= Working Time per Employed Person
= Employment Rate
= Working-Age Population related to Population
Sources: Sachverständigenrat (2007); Statistisches Bundesamt (2006, 2007); authors’ calculations. For
the raw data (explaining small rounding errors in this table), see Tables 1 and 2 in the Appendix.
8
10
For the original figures, see Tables 1 and 2 in the Appendix.
The average annual growth rates of GDP per capita are almost the same in the two
periods: 2.31 percent in the 1998 to 2000 period, and 2.99 percent between 2005 and
2007. In both periods, working time per employed person decreased further at the same
rate, thus contributing negatively to economic welfare per capita. In both periods, the
demographic change had a negative impact, albeit much more so in the more recent
period. In both periods, these negative factors were more than compensated by productivity growth and the greater activity of the working-age population, hence, by a
rising employment rate. The more recent period, however, was in both respects – labour
market efficiency and labour market integration – significantly more favourable.
This evidence seems to support the more optimistic view shared by the majority of
the German Council of Economic Experts. In order to make the assessment more solid,
we cast a glance at the components of volume of work per capita (H/P), which increased
in both periods, albeit more slowly during the recent economic upswing (0.28 percent
per annum compared to 0.49 percent between 1998 and 2000) (Table 2).
Table 2: Decomposition of the yearly change in per-capita working time into indicators of working-time preference, utilisation of the workforce, labour market
inclusiveness and demographic structure, 1998–2000 and 2005–2007
∆ln(H/P) = ∆ln(H/E) + ∆lnE/(E+U) + ∆ln(E+U)/WAP +∆ln(WAP/P)
1998–2000
2005–2007
H/P
H/E
E/(E+U)
(E+U)/WAP
WAP/P
0.49
0.28
=
=
–1.02
–1.08
+
+
0.61
1.35
+
+
1.17
1.14
+
+
–0.28
–1.13
= Working Time per Capita
= Working Time per Employed Person
= Utilisation of Active Labour Force (U=Unemployment)
= Labour Force Participation Rate
= Working-Age Population related to Population
Sources: Sachverständigenrat (2007), Statistisches Bundesamt (2006, 2007), authors’ calculations. For the raw data
(explaining small rounding errors in this table), see Tables 1 and 3 in the Appendix.
As expected from the previous analysis, the contribution of working time per employed
person to the volume of work was substantially negative in both periods. The same is
true of the demographic component, but the negative contribution was much higher in
the recent period (–1.13 percent per annum versus –0.28 percent between 1998 and
2000). Thus, for demographic reasons, one would have expected much slower growth in
the volume of work in the most recent period. In order to clarify why the discrepancy is
lower than expected, two other components of the volume of work need to be investigated, namely, labour force participation and utilisation of the active labour force. It
turns out that the behavioural component – labour force participation – is of the same
positive size in both periods. Hence, the answer lies in the utilisation rate of the active
labour force, which is much higher in the ongoing upswing.
11
Again, the analysis adds another piece of circumstantial evidence in favour of the
view that the Hartz reforms improved labour market efficiency. Two arguments might
contradict this conclusion: first, productivity growth slowed down due to higher labour
force activity; and, second, the higher utilisation of the labour force is a result of ‘makework’ measures under labour market policy. However, the first argument is not convincing: productivity growth was higher in the recent period than during the previous
upswing. The second argument has more plausibility given that the average number of
people in ‘make-work’ measures was slightly higher in the recent period than in the
former period.9
Our first empirical outline has shown that there is some – albeit not very strong –
circumstantial evidence of a positive impact based on the Hartz reforms. The following
section looks at various possible explanations viewed from the perspective of analytical
framework in order to gain some insight into which parts of the Hartz reforms might
positively affect the employment dynamics.
3.2
Possible factors explaining German employment dynamics: external and
internal shocks or institutional misfit?
As the analytical framework suggests, employment is determined by many factors. We
can only briefly touch upon the main factors by relating them to German peculiarities,
on the one hand, and by explaining the related empirical evidence in theoretical terms,
on the other. We will come back to a more generalised view in the final section of this
paper and will try there to formulate possible lessons.
(1) Starting with ‘external shocks’, globalisation generally increases competition and
forces the German economy to restructure. However, two German peculiarities are of
interest here. First, due to the establishment of the euro zone, Germany has lost its
sovereignty in the field of monetary and fiscal policy, which has consequently led to a
loss of influence in the realm of employment policy. Unlike, for instance, the UK or
Sweden, German governments are no longer able to make use of common instruments
such currency devaluation in order to become more competitive in foreign trade. The
appliance of Keynesian demand management is restricted by the Maastricht Treaty’s
Growth and Stability Pact. Second, the tremendous costs of German reunification need
to be taken into account. The restructuring of the former East German command eco-
9
12
We include under ‘make-work’ measures job-creation schemes that are not precisely comparable
between the two periods. The public employment service reports for the years 1998 to 2000 a yearly
average of 274,000 persons in ‘Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen’ (job-creation measures). The figures
under the same label between 2005 and 2007 are in the order of about 320,000 persons. The bulk of
these ‘Arbeitsgelegenheiten’ (work opportunities), however, has a higher turnover than the former
measures (Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen). Only a rigorous comparison of transition rates from
‘make-work’ employment to ‘regular’ employment could decide whether the slightly higher level in
the recent period is improving or damaging the employment dynamics in the long run; such a study
does not exist.
nomy,10 which is still in progress, as well as the fiscal adjustment to the Growth and
Stability Pact, have led to a dramatic decrease of public investment in Germany (from
about 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent of GDP), which was at the very root of plummeting
employment in the first half of this decennium.
(2) There are also ‘internal shocks’ that can be summed up by another ‘megatrend’,
namely individualisation – demographic change provoking an ‘ageing of society’, a
small but slowly increasing migration within and between EU member states, and a
shift in work preferences reflected in a steady rise of women’s labour force participation. Its impact on German employment and employment policy is threefold. First, a
paradigm shift, with the abandonment of early retirement and the extension of working
life at least up to the age of 67, has taken place, but is differentiated by growing diversity in terms of preferences and abilities. Second, the issue of the work-life balance, most
notably the compatibility of family life and working life, is becoming more and more
important. Employment policy has to be modified in the direction of a life-course policy
and must tackle the problem of the compressed working careers of young adults who
need to comply with different social roles at the same time. Third, in line with the principle of ‘freedom of mobility’, the EU-15 countries are opening their borders to the new
member states in Central and Eastern Europe. From the perspective of the new member
states, the emigration of the highly skilled is leading to a ‘brain drain’, which is a highly
unfavourable situation for aspiring economies. From the viewpoint of the old member
states, immigration increases competition and triggers social tensions.
(3) Wages are, from the employers’ point of view, an important cost factor. This might
depress demand for labour and provide incentives to substitute labour with capital.
From the employees’ point of view, however, wages are the central income factor,
which increases demand for goods and services and thereby employment. Moreover,
wages are also an incentive factor for both employees and employers. Efficiency wage
theory claims that employees work harder and are more cooperative if they receive good
and fair wages; and employers invest more in education and training if they have to pay
high wages. The balance between these two sides of the sword is difficult to achieve
and has to be constantly renegotiated betwen the social partners. This is the reason why
the state does not interfere in wage bargaining; the autonomy of the social partners is
even constitutionally legitimised in Germany and not contested by any of the major
political parties. However, for various reasons, the power of German trade unions has
weakened considerably during the last two decades. This again is one of the reasons
why wage costs have remained moderate. The annual growth rates of real average
wages per full-time and full-year equivalent dependent employees have been below the
average of most EU member states during the last ten years (OECD Employment Outlook 2007, Table I).
10 Since 1990, annual net transfers from western to eastern Germany amounted to about 100 billion
euros, which is about 40 percent of GDP; in other words, eastern Germany produces only about
60 percent of its GDP in expenditure terms. Average labour productivity in eastern Germany is still
only 79 percent of the western German level.
13
Modern labour economics perceives wage moderation in a large country like
Germany as problematic. From the point of view of the neighbouring trading partners,
wage moderation is considered a ‘beggar-my-neighbour policy’; from a Keynesian perspective, wage moderation is accused of depressing effective internal demand. It is for
this very reason that Germany is at the same time both a champion in exporting and a
champion of low growth related to employment-intensive services on the local and
regional market. Germany is one of the few EU member states without a legally mandated minimum wage, an issue that is hotly debated. Minimum wages have been established by the government for sectors that are increasingly exposed to international competition and migration. Industries such as construction, roofing, painting and building
cleaning are subject to minimum wage regulations. Depending on the specific industry,
the mandatory minimum wage varies between € 6 and € 12 per hour.11 However, since
the basic security transfer (‘Arbeitslosengeld II’, see below) represents a de facto
minimum income, more and more people are faced with a situation in which their job
pays them less than state transfers would. In fact, there are sectors with standard wages
of only € 3 per hour.12 In order to uphold incentives for gainful employment, wages that
fall below the ‘basic security’ limit are topped up by social transfers.13
(4) In general, Germany is considered an overly regulated country. As far as labour
market regulation is concerned, international comparisons such as the Economic Freedom of the World Index, show that Germany is indeed ranked at the upper end of the
scale. And yet the Hartz reforms did bring about some deregulation, especially in relation to temp-agency work and business start-ups. The partial opening of the labour market had positive effects such as an increase in both self-employment and temp-agency
work. The flip-side of the coin, however, is the low coverage of the self-employed
under social security schemes, as well as misuse of temp-agency work by employers in
terms of dumping wages and not caring about their workers’ long-term job perspectives.
As regards dismissal protection, little change can be reported. Apart from the fact
that the German trade unions and the majority of the Social Democratic Party (and even
some Christian Democrats) strongly oppose change, both empirical evidence and
theoretical arguments suggest that job protection might have no negative employment
effects if it is set in the proper institutional context, for example, if combined with vocational education and training, with internal working-time flexibility and – maybe – with
corresponding wage flexibility (see, for instance, OECD 2007a, Chapter 2).
(5) Many claim that the welfare state is the main cause of Germany’s employment
problems. This argument has two facets: First, work does not pay when seen in com11 For up-to-date information on minimum wage regulations in Germany see Hans-Böckler-Stiftung,
WSI-Tarifarchiv www.boeckler.de/cps/rde/xchg/SID-3D0AB75D-54374908/hbs/hs.xsl/275.html (consulted 23.10.2007).
12 Extraordinarily low wages are paid in industries such as hairdressing, floristry, transportation and
security. Depending on the region, standard wages for hairdressers start at 3.05 euro/hour.
13 The British national minimum wage (NMW) introduced in 1997 and implemented by the Low Pay
Commission (LPC) – proportionally composed of representatives of the employers, the trade unions
and academics – is considered as good practice since it improved the situation of low-income earners
(equity) without having a negative impact on employment (efficiency) (see Metcalf 2007).
14
parison to welfare entitlements; second, non-wage costs (above all, social security contributions) are too high and impede job creation, particularly in the low-wage sector. For
many low-wage earners, especially for non-working families with children, the gap
between social transfers and possible wage incomes was indeed not ‘making work pay’.
This fact explains to some extent the poor employment rates of low-skilled people, and
possibly also the increasing amount of informal and illegal ‘black’ work. The Hartz
reforms altered this situation to some extent by reducing welfare payments (especially
for the long-term unemployed), on the one hand, and by improving the possibilities for
earning in addition to welfare payments, on the other. With respect to non-wage costs,
there is evidence that the creation of jobs in wage-intensive services (e.g., household,
retail, hotel and restaurant services) was blocked or retarded (Scharpf and Schmidt
2000).
(6) Inefficient active labour market policies, specifically weak placement services and
falsely targeted employment-promotion measures, are likely to induce low employment
dynamics or permanent long-term unemployment. Germany was one of the highest
spenders in terms of active labour market policy in the 1990s, first and foremost due to
the transformation of the former East German command economy into a market economy. In this period, employment fell dramatically in eastern Germany and unemployment rocketed to a level of up to 35 percent in some regions due to the privatisation of
state enterprises, drastic cuts in the bureaucratic state sector and lack of private investment. In such transition periods, bridging measures under active labour market policy in
the form of large-scale temporary public jobs or wage subsidies can play an important
positive role, especially when they are combined with public and private capital investments in regional restructuring or development. Many developing countries, especially
those with ‘socialist’ experiments, face an overly large public sector or nationalised industry. The few evaluation studies carried out during the transition period in eastern
Germany in the 1990s, therefore, may have more lessons to teach for developing countries than the most recent labour market reforms, which are particularly affected by the
specifics of highly industrialised (OECD) countries.14
In fact, however, temporary public jobs, employment subsidies, short-time allowances, and partly also continuous vocational education and training measures were often
misused in order to park people in measures or to ‘prepare’ them for early retirement.
This was the reason for modernising the public employment service (PES) and for cutting or redressing active measures by means of the Hartz reforms.
(7) As the high unemployment and the low employment figures of low-skilled people
show, vocational education and training policies play a crucial role in employment
performance. And yet, unlike most of the EU member states, Germany’s youth unemployment rates are still favourable, although they have recently been disimproving. The
historically well-established apprenticeship system based on the combination of practical learning in firms and formal learning in schools (the ‘dual system’) is the main
14 Brinkmann (1995), Rabe (2000) and Wiedemann et al. (1999) provide the best reviews on labour
market policy experiences in eastern Germany.
15
reason why most young adults in Germany still manage the complicated transition from
school to work, except for those with extraordinarily low skills and school drop-outs. In
particular, young migrants are for the most part excluded from this system and are thus
of great concern for current policy reforms (see, for instance, OECD 2007b, Chapter A,
Indicator A6).
(8) Finally, the political economy may also play a role. Germany, for instance, has a
strong federal system, on the one hand, which gives each of the 16 individual states
(Länder) a high degree of freedom to run their economy and education systems; on the
other hand, the unemployment insurance system is centralised, so that high unemployment regions – especially in eastern Germany – are cross-subsidised by low unemployment regions, found especially in the south of Germany. In addition, Germany has, in
contrast for instance to the UK, a proportional voting system which favours voters with
preferences for generous unemployment benefits. This feature is emphasised by the fact
that Germany’s system of vocational education and training favours firm-specific skills
in contrast to generalised skills. This in turn increases workers’ interest in income redistribution as a social insurance device, in general, and in job protection or statuspreserving unemployment benefits, in particular (Cusack et al. 2006).
The following section digs a little deeper into the current German labour market reforms
by evaluating them against the background of the proposed analytical framework.
4.
German employment policy: the major reforms
The Hartz reforms were adopted in 2003 and 2004. At the core of these reforms were a
series of fundamental reforms of the PES based on proposals put forward by the 2002
Hartz Commission on ‘modernizing employment services’ (Hartz et al. 2002). In addition, two types of non-standard employment were promoted – self-employment and
marginal jobs. In the following, the major elements of these reforms will be briefly described and assessed.15
(1) The new start-up subsidy (in Germany also called the ´Ich-AG´) supplemented the
already existing bridging allowance, which capitalised unemployment benefit entitlements in order to support the unemployed in setting up their own businesses. Whereas
the individual amount of bridging allowance was derived from the unemployment benefit plus a lump sum of € 300 per month for social insurance and was paid for only six
months, the Ich-AG subsidy was paid as a yearly decreasing lump sum for three years,
provided that the recipient’s annual income did not exceed € 25,000. The risk associated
with self-employment was cushioned by the fact that eligibility for unemployment benefits persisted for a period as long as four years.
The take-up of the start-up subsidy was much higher than expected, and against
certain initial reservations, it did not replace the bridging allowance. In addition, from
15 Unless indicated otherwise, the empirical evidence is based on the first evaluation report of the Hartz
reforms (Bundesministerium 2006).
16
the perspective of employers, the possibility of hiring a self-employed instead of a dependent employed person is an attractive option, since dismissal protection does not
apply to this category of workers. Furthermore, bureaucratic thresholds for employment
creation were loosened: all business start-ups had the option of hiring additional
employees on the basis of fixed-term contracts for up to four years.
Regarding the security dimension, minimum income security was provided in the
form of a monthly allowance of € 600 in the first year, € 360 in the second year, and €
240 in the third year. Concerning social security, it is important to note that in contrast
to regular self-employment, social insurance was obligatory as long as the Ich-AG
founders were in receipt of the corresponding allowance. Although at first sight the IchAG seemed to provide the founder with minimum income security for three years, from
the second year on the allowance only sufficed to cover the cost of social security
contributions.
Even though evaluation research has given credit to this component of the Hartz
reforms, the Ich-AG scheme was abolished in 2006 and merged with the even more
efficient bridging allowance to create an overall ‘Start-up Allowance’ for the unemployed. The new regulation tightened the conditions and excluded most of the long-term
unemployed from the programme; this alone brought about a decline in the cases promoted from about 300,000 to 200,000 (Baumgartner and Caliendo 2007).
(2) As mentioned above, the area of marginal employment (mini- and midi-jobs) has
also been transformed by the Hartz legislation. Different objectives were envisaged with
these reforms: the curtailment of illegal work, especially in private households, and the
strengthening of marginal employment as a stepping stone to regular jobs (BMWA
2003, p. 4; Bundesregierung 2003, pp. 2–4). As part of the reform, the 15-hour limit on
weekly working hours has been abolished. Hence, marginal employment can be carried
out in addition to regular employment without becoming subject to social security contributions.
Prior to the latest reforms, full social insurance contributions became mandatory on
passing the € 325 income limit. Now employees’ contributions amount to 4 percent of
their earnings when they earn at least € 400.01. For incomes between € 400 and € 800,
contributions increase linearly until hitting the regular rate of 21 percent. Meanwhile,
full social insurance entitlements are gained. Employers are compelled to making full
contributions for mini-jobs, usually amounting to 25 percent (Rudolph 2003; Oschmiansky 2004). As a result, employers might theoretically be inclined to transform
mini-jobs into midi-jobs.
The overall evaluation of marginal employment by employer representatives turns
out positively. Mini-jobs, especially, are recognised as a cost-efficient and very flexible
measure for dealing with peak periods and extended opening hours. In this context,
competitive branches such as retail, cleaning, catering and tourism, but also private
households, take advantage of this measure. In particular, small businesses appreciate
the aspect of flexible and rapid use of marginal employment at relatively low costs
(Fertig and Friedrich 2005, pp. 129–130). Whereas these aspects already existed before
17
2003, the Hartz reforms abolished the limitation on weekly working hours for minijobbers and thus helped to strengthen internal numerical flexibility. The doubling of
declared marginal employment in private households within one year is an indicator of
the success of this strategy.
From the employees’ and trade unions’ point of view, however, there is great concern about mini-jobs offering employers the possibility to substitute regular employment and to keep outsiders in a low-income and dead-end trap which eventually also
leads to low social security entitlements and poverty in old age. Midi-jobs, on the other
hand, lead to a somewhat higher share of upward transitions, but too few people are
engaged in this type of employment relationship. Furthermore, as mentioned above,
midi-jobs are for the most part carried out by women (in 2006, 75 percent of all midijobbers were women). The outcome, thus, is ambivalent. Marginal employment today
enables many mothers to combine paid and unpaid family work, but at the same time
counteracts principles of ‘gender mainstreaming’ and sustainable individual security
entitlements.
(3) The first part of the administrative reforms can be subsumed under the strategy to
activate the unemployed by ‘supporting and demanding’ (‘Fördern und Fordern’)
measures. The supporting measures were mainly the improvement of placement services, especially through a larger and better-trained staff responsible for placement
services and employment promotion. The demanding measures mainly consisted in
tightening the rules on accepting a ‘suitable’ job and in reducing unemployment benefits for older people. In this context, it should be noted that prior to the Hartz reforms,
older employees were eligible for wage-related benefits for up to 32 months. As a consequence of this particular legal condition, employers frequently made use of the
‘golden handshake’-option, thus shifting their older employees into early retirement.
Such arrangements were facilitated by the pension system, which allowed retirement at
the age of 60 without a corresponding actuarial reduction of pension benefits. Both rules
were adjusted: the duration of unemployment benefits was cut to 12 months, or to 18
months for people aged older than 55 years. Furthermore, in cases of early retirement,
the pension regulations now foresee an actuarial reduction of benefits. It is – at least
partly – due to these new regulations that in the course of the economic upswing the
employment rates of elderly employees have risen, while their unemployment rates
have decreased significantly.
(4) Profiling is used to divide jobseekers into client groups (job-ready, counselling, and
intensive-service clients) according to their distance from the labour market. The
classification of the clients serves as a basis for individual action plans and for allocating labour market services. The clients’ streamlining is organised according to strict
schedules in order to ensure individualised counselling and to avoid waiting queues.
These measures have certainly improved the lot of the first two groups. The ‘intensiveservice clients’, however, are even more neglected than before.
(5) Services to employers are improved through time-budget allocation for such services
(at least 20 percent of the agencies’ time) and ‘premium’ clients, faster reaction times,
18
prior contacts to both employers and jobseekers, referral of a limited number of quailfied contacts, follow-up contacts, an improved vacancy data base and monitoring of the
matching process. The central goal lies in obtaining employers’ attention and willingness to cooperate and, thus, in increasing the share of notified vacancies. These measures have also considerably improved matching efficiency.
(6) The reform also puts emphasis on privatisation in the form of outside provision of
placement services. Most of the corresponding instruments, however, especially the Personnel Service Agencies (PSA), have not been successful (Hess et al. 2006). PSAs are
temporary work agencies for the unemployed established on a contract basis with a
local service provider, which is in many cases part of the temporary work industry. This
instrument, however, has failed to live up to the Hartz Commission’s great expectations,
mainly because the amalgamation of placement and temporary work functions sent
ambivalent signals to both the PES agencies and their clients. After a process of learning and calibration, the instrument of issuing placement vouchers to persons who had
been unemployed for more than six weeks turned out to be partially successful. Private
agencies are paid a maximum of € 2,000 for placing the unemployed person in employment of at least 15 hours per week: € 1,000 after employment duration of at least six
weeks and an additional € 1,000 after duration of at least six months.
(7) The main, albeit ambivalent, impact was due to the merging of unemployment assistance and social assistance. Prior to the reform, the PES administered two types of
benefits, which de facto defined its clientele for active measures: unemployment benefits, which provided payments at a level of about two thirds of previous net wages for 12
months (or up to 32 months for older employees), and unemployment assistance after
eligibility for regular unemployment benefits had expired. Unlike unemployment benefits, unemployment assistance was means-tested, amounted to 53 percent to 57 percent
of previous net wages, and was paid for an unlimited period. A third type of benefit was
the so-called social assistance, in other words, means-tested benefits at the subsistence
level. Social assistance for unemployed people who were not eligible for PES benefits
was funded and administered by the local authorities, the counties and the larger municipalities. On average, about 80 percent of total social assistance expenditure was
funded by the local authorities, while the remaining 20 percent was funded by the German federal states (Länder).
The unlimited allowance of means-tested, yet wage-related, unemployment assistance
turned out to have negative effects on work incentives, especially for those unemployed
with relatively high prior earnings. As mentioned above, this regulation also encouraged
the use of ‘golden handshake’ options. Moreover, the elaborate system of benefit provision had important consequences for the provision of job-brokering and other active
measures for the unemployed in Germany.
First, more and more unemployed were no longer eligible for regular unemployment benefits, rather only for means-tested unemployment assistance or social assistance. Second, the PES focused its active programmes de facto on its own core clientele
of unemployment benefit recipients, who were getting funded through the PES budget;
19
other unemployed were either eligible for unemployment assistance administered by
PES, but financed by the national government, or had to apply to the local authorities
for social assistance; recipients of social assistance administered by the local authorities
and other unemployed persons not eligible for PES benefits were generally excluded
from PES active programmes. Third, as a response to the unemployed who depended on
social assistance, local labour market programmes for long-term unemployed were
mushrooming under the auspices of the local authorities. Fourth, many of these local
programmes were explicitly aimed at shifting the unemployed back under the responsibility of the PES; this was possible by creating intermediary jobs lasting up to 12
months, thereby entitling the participants to re-gain eligibility for unemployment
benefits and thereafter unlimited unemployment assistance. In the end, the losers of this
shifting of responsibilities (labelled by some experts as ‘organised irresponsibility’)
were the long-term unemployed, especially low-skilled and older people, which was
reflected in over-proportional unemployment rates in these target groups.
The Hartz reforms overhauled this highly flawed incentive system by replacing
unemployment assistance with a so-called ‘basic (income) security’ (Grundsicherung or
Arbeitslosengeld II [ALG II]). ALG II is a means-tested and flat-rate allowance for all
jobseekers who are not entitled to unemployment benefits, no matter whether they are
clients of the local authorities (formerly social assistance recipients) or clients of the
PES (formerly unemployment benefit recipients).
The administrative reform, however, was not successful in establishing corresponding ‘job centres’ or one-stop shops for all of the clients under the clear responsibility of
the PES, as the Hartz Commission had recommended. Due to the complex interrelationships under German federalism and a political stalemate between the leading parties, a
compromise emerged which again established fragmented responsibilities between the
PES and the local authorities with respect to the recipients of ‘basic security’ – so-called
Hartz IV.
For a needy single unemployed person, Hartz IV (since July 2007) pays an allowance of € 347 plus costs for accommodation (about € 320). In the case of a family,
unemployed partners receive 90 percent (€ 320) of the basic allowance (€ 347), children
under the age of 14 receive 60 percent (€ 277), and children from 15 to 18 years receive
80 percent. Furthermore, all ‘basic security’ recipients are entitled to active labour market policy – almost to the same extent as recipients of regular unemployment benefits.
Thus, a family with two children aged 15 and 17, and in which both partners are
unemployed and have passed the means test, receives a transfer income of at least € 347
+ 320 + 277 + 277 = € 1,220; this corresponds to a gross wage of about € 8.60 per hour.
Under certain circumstances, additional allowances can increase the amount of the
transfer income. The transfer recipients can also earn some additional income up to a
certain amount. As a result, incentives to work for low-income earners turn out to be
rather low or even negative.
Taken all together, this element of the Hartz reforms created losers as well as
winners. The losers are mainly relatively well-paid former unemployment assistance
20
recipients; the winners are former social assistance beneficiaries who are now also
eligible for active labour market policy measures.
For the time being, there are at least four unresolved problems: first, the problem of
long-term unemployed who are disadvantaged either by age, low skills or limited work
capacities; second, the depressed employment rate of low-skilled people, which is
reflected on the other side of the coin by increasing informal or even illegal (‘black’)
work; third, the growing problem of the working poor, whose earnings (often despite
full-time work) fall below the minimum income and who therefore receive ‘basic security’ to top up their incomes; fourth, the problem of the older unemployed who, after 12
or 18 months, end up in the potential poverty trap of Hartz IV. Recently, there was a
heated debate on this latter problem. It was argued that people who had made contributions to the unemployment insurance system over many years should be eligible for
benefits for an extended period of time. The debate resulted in an agreement by the
current Grand Coalition government to further extend the benefit duration for older
unemployed to two years. The likely impact of this decision, however, is ambivalent.
Extending benefits for older recipients goes against the logic of insurance and might
again increase incentives to enter early retirement. There is not much evidence that marginally changing one single element in the package of employment policies actually
contributes to either increasing employment or to decreasing unemployment. The story
told so far should have shown that it is the interaction between complementary institutions that is responsible for sustainable employment dynamics. The final section will
deliberate on this point on a more general level.
5.
Lesson to be learned from recent German labour market reforms
Having reviewed some theoretical foundations as well as the current policy reforms, the
remainder of this paper will seek to identify a set of lessons to be derived from the German experience. What are the major insights yielded by our analysis? Which parts of
the reform can be viewed as successful? What, on the other hand, went wrong? In the
following, we briefly sketch the positive and negative aspects of the reforms.
The first good practice that deserves mention is promoting the transition from unemployment to employment through self-employment as a stepping stone to entrepreneurship or back to gainful dependent work. We believe – apart from the general lesson
– that developing countries, especially, that are faced with the problem of transforming
informal employment into formal employment can learn much by studying the strengths
and weaknesses of this programme. Evaluation research, for instance, showed that
follow-up measures in terms of counselling, networking, training, marketing and, especially, a proper financing infrastructure are of utmost importance for the sustainability
of self-employment.
The second good practice is the successful modernisation of placement services in
Germany. Evaluation research indicates especially the importance of early assessment
of the skills and competences of jobseekers, individual case management, the availabil21
ity of one-stop job centres where jobseekers can find multiple job services, and the
strong employer orientation of placement officers.
The third lesson in this respect – and this also corresponds to experiences in the
Netherlands, the UK and Australia – is that privatisation is not a panacea for improved
employment services. Transaction costs can be prohibitive, and the oft-detected lack of
quality in private services is a warning against placing exaggerated hope in privatisation
or in contracting out these services. Nevertheless, on a general level, Germany in this
respect also teaches that proper public-private partnership arrangements can serve to
bring even the most disadvantaged people back into the labour market. It takes a long
time to create a competitive market of high-quality private employment services. In
view of state or policy failures that also loom large compared to market failures, it is
worthwhile investing much in the framework conditions of excellent private providers
of employment services.
The fourth – at least partly – positive example is the flexibilisation of the labour
market through mini-jobs and midi-jobs that serve, metaphorically speaking, to ‘grease
the wheels’ of the labour market. Also, the partial deregulation of temp-agency work,
on the one hand, and the submission of these hybrid employment relationships to the
law of collective agreement, on the other, has increased the status of potentially modern
employment relationships. However, we also noticed substantial risks related to this
kind of flexibilisation if it is not combined with new securities, for instance active
labour market policies supporting transitions into regular or stable employment relationships, tax and social security provisions avoiding gender discrimination, and substitution of regular employment through dumping of wage and labour standards. Despite
the success, it is therefore beyond dispute that the reforms have also brought about disappointment and failure. Since these failures might perhaps have even more to teach us
than the successes, the final section will sum up the main mistakes.
The most prominent mistake of the Hartz reforms is the failure to establish transparent administrative structures for integrating the long-term unemployed. The present
lack of institutional accountability is one of the main reasons why hard-to-place people
are clearly disadvantaged in the present system. The second big mistake was reducing
investments in active labour market policy, especially in continuous vocational education and training, not only for the unemployed, but also for the low-skilled employed
facing high unemployment risks. A third failure was the late response to the lack of
effective demand related to public investment and stimulating private investment. Only
the Grand Coalition succeeded in turning the steering wheel toward stimulating the economy through a huge investment programme of € 25 billion.16 The fourth mistake and
major future challenge for reforms seeking stimulate a sustainable employment dynamic
is the funding of the welfare state. The burden on employees’ income is still too large,
especially with regard to low and medium income-earners. In order to make work pay,
the financing of social security has to be shifted more in the direction of consumption
16 For more details on this point, see several contributions in Schettkat and Langkau (2007).
22
taxes or general income taxes, including higher effective taxation of properties or uninvested capital.
In the long run, the modern world of work requires a new full employment goal
which is no longer based on permanent full-time work over the whole life course, but on
flexible employment relationships that allow transitions between various jobs, variable
working-time regimes and changing forms of employment. The proper institutional
change would be to transform unemployment insurance into employment insurance,
covering not only the income risks of unemployment but also the income risks of
changing employment relationships during the life course, and thus, making transitions
pay (Schmid forthcoming).
Finally and returning to the analytical framework, the central message of our essay
is simple and threefold. First, prior to superficially linking empirical observations to
institutions or policies in a causally relevant way, it is important to get the empirical
facts right by identifying exogenous and endogenous factors that determine employment, and to evaluate institutions and policy measures with rigorous methods before
eventually drawing tentative policy conclusions on the basis of a rich set of circumstantial evidence. Second, theory suggests that successful employment strategies depend
on the proper interaction between institutions that influence employability on the supply
side and productivity on the demand side. Employability obviously depends above all
on education & skills, but less obviously, and more controversially, also on social security and employment protection. Productivity evidently depends on technology & capital,
but less obviously, and more controversially, on effective demand and employment
regulation. Third, the empirical evidence of the German case supports our starting proposition that neither regulation nor the deregulation theory provide a proper framework
for explaining employment dynamics. It is instead the complementarity of institutions
that enhances flexibility and security in employment relationships, on the one hand, and
stimulates the economy through product innovation and human capital investment, on
the other.
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25
Appendix
Figure 1: Employment rates in the USA, the EU-15 and Germany, 1997–2007
80
employment rate
(annual averages, age group 15-64)
75
US
70
65
DE
60
EU 15
55
50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
year
Sources: European Union Labour Force Survey; Data for United States: OECD Employment Outlook
2003, p. 302, and OECD Employment Outlook 2007, p. 246.
Figure 2: Unemployment rates in USA, EU 15 and Germany, 1997–2007
10
DE
unemployment rate
(annual averages, age group 15-64)
9
EU 15
8
7
6
5
US
4
3
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
year
Sources: OECD Employment Outlook 2007, p. 245; Data for 2007: European Union Labour Force Survey and Bundesagentur für Arbeit.
26
Figure 3: Unemployment rates by level of education, 2005
tertiary education
secondary education
total
unskilled
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
unemployment rates (annual averages for Germany, 2005)
W omen
Men
Source: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, IAB-Kurzbericht Nr. 18/2007.
Figure 4: Employment rates for people aged 55–64 in 2000 and 2006
70
S
DK
60
GB
FIN
50
P
2006
D
CZ
EU 25
IRL
E
NL
EU 15
GR
30
I
Lisbon benchmark
by 2010: 50 %
40
HU
SK
Lisbon benchmark
by 2010: 50 %
F
A
EU 10
B
PL
20
20
30
40
2000
50
60
70
Source: European Union Labour Force Survey.
27
Figure 5: Standard and non-standard employment
Em ployees w ho are subject to
social security contributions
Num ber of self-em ployed
4.500
29.000
4.400
4.300
28.000
4.200
4.100
27.000
4.000
26.000
3.900
3.800
25.000
3.700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2001
Part-tim e em ploym ent
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Tem porary em ploym ent
27
15
25
14
23
13
21
12
19
11
17
15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
10
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sources: Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Beschäftigung in Deutschland, Tabelle 1; IAB. Daten zur
kurzfristigen Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt, September 2007, S. 18; European Union
Labour Force Survey.
28
Figure 6: Standard and non-standard employment
6000000
Employees, age group 15─64
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
2004
2005
2006
year
Marginally employed in side job*
Exclusively marginally employed*
Employees holding Midi-Jobs**
* Marginal employment refers to employment relations with monthly earnings up to € 400.
** Midi-Jobs are employment relationships with monthly earnings between € 400 and € 800
and are subject to social security contributions.
Sources: Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nuremberg 2007; Arbeitsmarkt in Zahlen, Beschäftigte
Ende Dezember 2006 in Deutschland; Bundesagentur für Arbeit: Mini- und Midijobs in Deutschland.
Bericht der Statistik der BA. Nuremberg, May 2007.
29
Table 1: Raw data for measuring the employment performance in Germany, comparing
the upswings 1998–2000 and 2005–2007
1998
1999
2000
1,965,380,000,000
2,012,000,000,000
2,062,500,000,000
82,029,000
82,087,000
82,188,000
56,992,000,000
57,317,000,000
57,659,000,000
Employed
persons (E)
37,911,000
38,424,000
39,144,000
Working age
population (WAP)
55,990,000
55,915,000
55,788,000
4,280,630
4,100,499
3,889,695
GDP (in €)
Resident
population (P)
Hours worked (H)
Unemployed
persons (U)
2005
2006
2007
2,241,000,000,000
2,309,100,000,000
2,371,445,700,000
82,464,000
82,366,000
82,197,000
55,740,000,000
56,001,000,000
55,876,000,000
Employed
persons (E)
38,823,000
39,090,000
39,769,000
Working age
population (WAP)
54,918,000
54,574,000
53,515,000
4,860,877
4,487,057
3,783,000
GDP (in €)
Resident
population (P)
Hours worked (H)
Unemployed
persons (U)
1998
1999
2000
2005
2006
2007
GDP/P
23,960
24,511
25,095
27,175
28,035
28,851
GDP/H
34.49
35.10
35.77
40.20
41.23
42.44
H/E
1,503
1,492
1,473
1,436
1,433
1,405
E/WAP
0.6771
0.6872
0.7017
0.7069
0.7163
0.7431
WAP/P
0.6826
0.6812
0.6788
0.6660
0.6626
0.6511
E/(E+U)
0.8985
0.9036
0.9096
0.8887
0.8970
0.9131
(E+U)/WAP
0.7536
0.7605
0.7714
0.7954
0.7985
0.8138
695
698
702
676
680
680
H/P
Main sources: Sachverständigenrat (2007), Statistisches Bundesamt (2006, 2007).
30
Table 2: Decomposition of per capita GDP (GDP/P) into indicators of efficiency,
work sharing, labour market integration and population structure in 1998,
1999, 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2007
1998
1999
2000
2005
2006
2007
GDP/P
=
GDP/H
*
H/E
*
E/WAP
+
WAP/P
23,960
24,511
25,095
27,175
28,035
28,851
=
=
=
=
=
=
34.49
35.10
35.77
40.20
41.23
42.44
*
*
*
*
*
*
1,503
1,492
1,473
1,436
1,433
1,405
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.6771
0.6872
0.7017
0.7069
0.7163
0.7431
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.6826
0.6812
0.6788
0.6660
0.6626
0.6511
GDP/P
GDP/H
H/E
E/WAP
WAP/P
GDP per capita
GDP per hour
Working time per employed person
Employment rate
Demographic component (working age population related to total population)
Main sources: Sachverständigenrat (2007), Statistisches Bundesamt (2006, 2007); authors’
calculations.
Table 3: Decomposition of per capita working time (H/P) into indicators of working
time preference, utilisation of the work force, labour market inclusivenes
and demographic structure in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2007
1998
1999
2000
2005
2006
2007
H/P
H/E
E/(E+U)
(E+U)/WAP
WAP/P
H/P
=
H/E
*
E/(E+U)
695
698
702
676
680
680
=
=
=
=
=
=
1,503
1,492
1,473
1,436
1,433
1,405
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.899
0.904
0.910
0.889
0.897
0.913
* (E+U)/WAP *
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.754
0.761
0.771
0.795
0.798
0.814
*
*
*
*
*
*
WAP/P
0.683
0.681
0.679
0.666
0.663
0.651
Working time per capita
Working time per employed person
Labour force utilisation
Labour force participation rate
Demographic component (working age population related to total population)
Main sources: Sachverständigenrat (2007), Statistisches Bundesamt (2006, 2007); authors’
calculations.
31
Books published by members
of the research unit Labor Market Policy and Employment
(only available from commercial
retailers)
Dietmar Dathe, Günther Schmid
Urbane Beschäftigungsdynamik.
Berlin im Standortvergleich mit
Ballungsregionen
2001
Berlin, edition sigma
175 pp.
Mathias Eberling, Volker Hielscher,
Eckart Hildebrandt, Kerstin Jürgens
Prekäre Balancen. Flexible Arbeitszeiten zwischen betrieblicher
Regulierung und individuellen
Ansprüchen
2004
Berlin, edition sigma
279 pp.
Werner Eichhorst, Stefan Profit, Eric
Thode
in collaboration with the “Benchmarking“
team at the „Bündnis für Arbeit, Ausbildung und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit“
Alliance: Gerhard Fels, Rolf G. Heinze,
Heide Pfarr, Günther Schmid, Wolfgang
Streeck
Benchmarking Deutschland: Arbeitsmarkt und Beschäftigung. Bericht der
Arbeitsgruppe Benchmarking und der
Bertelsmann-Stiftung
2001
Berlin/Heidelberg/New York, Springer
440 pp.
Jürgen Gabriel, Michael Neugart (eds.)
Ökonomie als Grundlage politischer
Entscheidungen
2001
Opladen, Leske + Budrich
343 pp.
Silke Gülker, Christoph Hilbert,
Klaus Schömann
Lernen von den Nachbarn. Qualifikationsbedarf in Ländern der OECD
2000
Bielefeld, W. Bertelsmann Verlag
126 pp.
Markus Gangl
Unemployment Dynamics in the
United States and West Germany.
Economic Restructuring, Institutions
and Labor Market Processes
2003
Heidelberg, New York: Physica/Springer
300 pp.
Miriam Hartlapp
Die Kontrolle der nationalen Rechtsdurchsetzung durch die Europäische
Union
2005
Köln, Campus Verlag
254 pp.
Eckart Hildebrandt (Hrsg.)
Lebenslaufpolitik im Betrieb. Optionen zur Gestaltung der Lebensarbeitszeit durch Langzeitkonten
2007
Berlin: edition sigma
260 pp.
Werner Jann, Günther Schmid (eds.)
Eins zu eins? Eine Zwischenbilanz
der Hartz-Reformen am Arbeitsmarkt
2004
Berlin: edition sigma
112 pp.
Max Kaase, Günther Schmid (eds.)
Eine lernende Demokratie - 50 Jahre
Bundesrepublik Deutschland
WZB-Jahrbuch 1999
1999
Berlin, edition sigma
586 pp.
Hartmut Kaelble, Günther Schmid (eds.)
Das europäische Sozialmodell.
Auf dem Weg zum transnationalen
Sozialstaat
WZB-Jahrbuch 2004
2004
Berlin, edition sigma
455 pp.
Michael Neugart, Klaus Schömann
(eds.)
Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD
Countries. Measuring and Tackling
Mismatches
2002
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
322 pp.
Jaap de Koning and Hugh Mosley (eds.)
Labour Market Policy and Unemployment: Impact and Process
Evaluations in Selected European
Countries
2001
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
317 pp.
Jacqueline O’Reilly, Colette Fagan
(eds.)
Part-Time Prospects. An International
Comparison
1998
London/New York, Routledge
304 pp.
Hugh Mosley, Jacqueline O’Reilly,
Klaus Schömann (eds.)
Labour Markets, Gender and Institutional Change. Essays in Honour of
Günther Schmid
2002
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
382 pp.
Hugh Mosley, Holger Schütz, Günther
Schmid with the collaboration of KaiUwe Müller
Effizienz der Arbeitsämter: Leistungsvergleich und Reformpraxis,
Reihe „Modernisierung des öffentlichen Sektors“
2003
Berlin, edition sigma
179 pp.
Ralf Mytzek, Klaus Schömann (eds.)
Transparenz von Bildungsabschlüssen in Europa. Sektorale Studien zur
Mobilität von Arbeitskräften
2004
Berlin, edition sigma
198 pp.
Jacqueline O’Reilly, Inmaculada Cebrián
and Michel Lallemant (eds.)
Working-Time Changes: Social Integration Through Transitional Labour
Markets
2000
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
369 pp.
Jacqueline O’Reilly (ed.)
Regulating Working-Time Transitions
in Europe
2003
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
325 pp.
Birgitta Rabe
Implementation von Arbeitsmarktpolitik durch Verhandlungen. Eine
spieltheoretische Analyse
2000
Berlin, edition sigma
254 pp.
Stefan Ramge, Günther Schmid (eds.)
Management of Change in der Politik? Reformstrategien am Beispiel der
Arbeitsmarkt- und Beschäftigungspolitik. Ein Werkstattbericht.
Gesellschaft für Programmforschung,
GfP (ed.), Bd. 55 der Reihe „Schnittpunkte von Forschung und Politik“,
2003
New York, München, Berlin: Waxmann
165 pp.
Günther Schmid, Jacqueline O'Reilly,
Klaus Schömann (eds.)
International Handbook of Labour
Market Policy and Evaluation
1996
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
954 pp.
Günther Schmid, Bernard Gazier (eds.)
The Dynamics of Full Employment.
Social Integration Through Transitional Labour Markets
2002
Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar
443 pp.
Günther Schmid
Wege in eine neue Vollbeschäftigung.
Übergangsarbeitsmärkte und aktivierende Arbeitsmarktpolitik
2002
Frankfurt/Main, Campus
477 pp.
Holger Schütz, Hugh Mosley (Hg.)
Arbeitsagenturen auf dem Prüfstand.
Leitungsvergleich und Reformpraxis
der Arbeitsvermittlung
2005
Berlin, edition sigma
351 S.
Sylvia Zühlke
Beschäftigungschancen durch berufliche Mobilität? Arbeitslosigkeit,
Weiterbildung und Berufswechsel in
Ostdeutschland
2000
Berlin, edition sigma,
206 pp.
The Research Area “Employment, Social Structure, and Welfare State” has existed since
1 January 2003. It encompasses the research units “Labor Market Policy and Employment” and “Inequality and Social Integration” and the research group “Public Health”.
Research Unit
Labor Market Policy
and Employment
Discussion Papers 2003
Carroll Haak
Weiterbildung in kleinen und mittleren Betrieben: Ein deutsch-dänischer
Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2003-101
Günther Schmid
Gleichheit und Effizienz auf dem Arbeitsmarkt: Überlegungen zum
Wandel und zur Gestaltung des „Geschlechtervertrages“
Order number: SP I 2003-102
Holger Schütz
Controlling von Arbeitsverwaltungen
im internationalen Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2003-103
Stefan Schröter
Berufliche Weiterbildung in Großbritannien für gering qualifizierte
Arbeitskräfte
Order number: SP I 2003-104
Magnus Lindskog
Forecasting and responding to qualification need in Sweden
Order number: SP I 2003-105
Heidi Oschmiansky und Frank
Oschmiansky
Erwerbsformen im Wandel: Integration oder Ausgrenzung durch
atypische Beschäftigung? Berlin und
die Bundesrepublik Deutschland im
Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2003-106
Katrin Vitols
Entwicklungen des Qualifikationsbedarfs in der Bankenbranche
Order number: SP I 2003-107
Achim Kemmerling
Die Rolle des Wohlfahrtsstaates in
der Entwicklung unterschiedlicher
Dienstleistungssektoren – Wohlfahrtsstaatsregime und Dienstleistungsbeschäftigung
Order number: SP I 2003-108
Thomas A. DiPrete, Dominique Goux,
Eric Maurin, Amélie Quesnel-Vallée
Work and Pay in Flexible and Regulated Labor Markets: A Generalized
Perspective on Institutional Evolution
and Inequality Trends in Europe and
the U.S.
Order number: SP I 2003-109
Discussion Papers 2004
Thomas A. DiPrete, Markus Gangl
Assessing Bias in the Estimation of
Causal Effects: Rosenbaum Bounds
on Matching Estimators and Instrumental Variables Estimation with
Imperfect Instruments
Order number: SP 1 2004-101
Andrea Ziefle
Die individuellen Kosten des Erziehungsurlaubs: Eine empirische
Analyse der kurz- und längerfristigen
Folgen für den Karriereverlauf von
Frauen
Order number: SP 1 2004-102
Günther Schmid, Silke Kull
Die Europäische Beschäftigungsstrategie. Anmerkungen zur "Methode
der offenen Koordinierung"
Order number: SP 1 2004-103
Hildegard Theobald
Entwicklung des Qualifikationsbedarfs im Gesundheitssektor:
Professionalisierungsprozesse in der
Physiotherapie und Dentalhygiene im
europäischen Vergleich
Order number: SP 1 2004-104
Magnus Lindskog
Labour market forecasts and their
use – Practices in the Scandinavian
countries
Order number: SP 1 2004-105
Hildegard Theobald
Unternehmensberatung: Veränderter
Qualifikationsbedarf und neue Ansätze in Ausbildung und Regulierung
des Berufszugangs
Order number: SP 1 2004-106
Günther Schmid
Gewährleistungsstaat und Arbeitsmarkt Neue Formen von Governance
in der Arbeitsmarktpolitik
Order number: SP I 2004-107
Karin Schulze Buschoff
Neue Selbstständigkeit und wachsender Grenzbereich zwischen
selbstständiger und abhängiger Erwerbsarbeit – europäische Trends
vor dem Hintergrund sozialpolitischer
und arbeitsrechtlicher Entwicklungen
Order number: SP 1 2004-108
Christoph Hilbert
Performanzmessung und Anreize in
der regionalen Arbeitsvermittlung:
Der Schweizer Ansatz und eine Modellrechnung für Deutschland
Order number: SP 1 2004-109
Günther Schmid
Soziales Risikomanagement durch
Übergangsarbeitsmärkte
Order number: SP I 2004-110
Lennart Delander, Jonas Månsson, Erik
Nyberg
Using the Unemployed as Temporary
Employment Counsellors: Evaluation
of an Initiative to Combat Long-Term
Unemployment
Order number: SP I 2004-111
Discussion Papers 2005
Achim Kemmerling, Oliver Bruttel
New Politics in German Labour Market Policy? The Implications of the
Recent Hartz Reforms for the German
Welfare State
Order number: SP I 2005-101
Kamil Zawadzki
Transitional Labour Markets in a
Transitional Economy. Could They
Work? The Example of Poland
Order number: SP I 2005-102
Magnus Lindskog
The Swedish Social Insurance System for the Self-Employed
Order number: SP I 2005-103
Rebecca Boden
The UK social security system for
self-employed people
Order number: SP I 2005-104
Philip Wotschack
Household Governance and Time
Allocation – Structures and Processes of Social Control in Dutch
Households
Order number: SP I 2005-105
Holger Schütz, Peter Ochs
Das Neue im Alten und das Alte im
Neuen - Das Kundenzentrum der
Bundesagentur für Arbeit: Die öffentliche Arbeitsvermittlung zwischen inkrementellen und strukturellen
Reformen
Order number: SP I 2005-106
Carroll Haak
Künstler zwischen selbständiger und
abhängiger Erwerbsarbeit
Order number: SP I 2005-107
Ralf Mytzek-Zühlke
Einflussfaktoren betrieblicher
Weiterbildungsaktivität in Dänemark,
Schweden, Deutschland und dem
Vereinigten Königreich.
Analysen der Mikrodaten der zweiten
Europäischen Weiterbildungserhebung
(CVTS2)
Order number: SP I 2005-108
Oliver Bruttel
Contracting-out and Governance
Mechanisms in the Public Employment Service
Order number: SP I 2005-109
Colette Fagan, Jacqueline O’Reilly,
Brendan Halpin
Job opportunities for whom? Labour
market dynamics and service sector
employment growth in Germany and
Britain
Order number: SP I 2005-110
Monique Aerts
The Dutch Social Insurance System
for Self-Employed
Order number: SP I 2005-111
Discussion Papers 2006
Günther Schmid
Sharing Risks. On Social Risk Management and the Governance of
Labour Market Transitions
Order number: SP I 2006-101
Rosie Page, Jim Hillage
Vocational Education and Training in
the UK. Strategies to overcome skill
gaps in the workforce
Order number: SP I 2006-102
Anton Hemerijck
Recalibrating Europe’s SemiSovereign Welfare States
Order number: SP I 2006-103
Paul Ryan, Howard Gospel, Paul Lewis
Large Employers and Apprenticeship
Training in Britain
Order number: SP I 2006-104
Lorenz Lassnigg
Approaches for the anticipation of
skill needs in the perspective of
“Transitional Labour Markets” – the
Austrian experience
Order number: SP I 2006-105
Paula Protsch
Lebens- und Arbeitsqualität von
Selbstständigen.
Objektive Lebens- und Arbeitsbedingungen und subjektives
Wohlbefinden einer heterogenen
Erwerbsgruppe
Order number: SP I 2006-106
Karin Schulze Buschoff
Die soziale Sicherung von selbstständig Erwerbstätigen in
Deutschland
Order number: SPI 2006-107
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit
Griga
On the Marriage of Flexibility and
Security: Lessons from the HartzReforms in Germany
Order number: SP I 2006-108
Anders Stenberg
Skill Needs and Continuing
Vocational Training in Sweden
Order Number: SP I 2006-109
Philip Wotschack, Rafael Wittek
Negotiating Work and Household
Demands.
Effects of Conflict Management Strategies in Dutch Households on the Labor
Supply of Male and Female Employees
Order number: SP I 2006-110
Christian Brzinsky-Fay
Lost in Transition - Labour Market
Entry Sequences of School Leavers
in Europe
Order number: SP I 2006-111
Jaap de Koning, Hassel Kroes, Alex van
der Steen
Patterns of Work and Use of Benefits
over the Life Course: Estimates and
simulations based on Dutch microdata
Order number: SP I 2006-112
Michael Neugart
Labor Market Policy Evaluation with
an Agent-based Model
Order number: SP I 2006-113
Miriam Hartlapp
Über Politiklernen lernen. Überlegungen zur Europäischen
Beschäftigungsstrategie
Order number: SP I 2006-114
Philip Wotschack
Lebenslaufpolitik in den Niederlanden.
Gesetzliche Optionen zum Ansparen
längerer Freistellungen: „verlofspaarregeling“ und „levensloopregeling“
Order number: SP I 2006-115
Kai-Uwe Müller, Frank Oschmiansky
Die Sanktionspolitik der Arbeitsagenturen nach den „Hartz“Reformen
Analyse der Wirkungen des „Ersten
Gesetzes für moderne Dienstleistungen
am Arbeitsmarkt“
Order number: SP I 2006-116
Klaus Schömann, Liuben Siarov, Nick
van den Heuvel
Managing social risks through
transitional labour markets
Order number: SP I 2006-117
Wayne Vroman, Vera Brusentsev
Unemployment and Unemployment
Compensation from a Global
Perspective
Order number: SP I 2006-118
Achim Kemmerling
Diffusion und Interaktion in der Arbeitsmarktpolitik? Positive und
negative Ansteckungseffekte am Beispiel zweier Reformdiskussionen
Order number: SP I 2006-119
Michael Neugart
Pensions with early retirement and
without commitment
Order number: SP I 2006-120
Morten Lassen, John Houman Sørensen, Anja Lindkvist Jørgensen, Rasmus
Juul Møberg
Skill Needs and the Institutional
Framework Conditions for EnterpriseSponsored CVT - The Case of Denmark
Order number: SP I 2006-121
Karin Schulze Buschoff, Claudia
Schmidt
Own-Account Workers in Europe
Flexible, mobile, and often inadequately insured
Order number: SP I 2006-122
Carroll Haak
Mehrfachbeschäftigung, Bildung und
Einkommen auf den Arbeitsmärkten
von Künstlern
Order number: SP I 2006-123
Discussion Papers 2007
Petra Kaps, Holger Schütz
Privatisierung von Arbeitsvermittlungsdienstleistungen – Wundermittel zur Effizienzsteigerung?
Eine Bestandsaufnahme deutscher
und internationaler Erfahrungen
Order number: SP I 2007-101
Lennart Delander, Jonas Månsson
Forensic evaluation: A strategy for
and results of an impact evaluation of
a universal labor market program –
The Swedish Activity Guarantee
Order number: SP I 2007-102
Karin Schulze Buschoff
Self-employment and Social Risk
Management: Comparing Germany
and the United Kingdom
Order number: SP I 2007-103
Heidi Oschmiansky
Der Wandel der Erwerbsformen und
der Beitrag der Hartz-Reformen: Berlin und die Bundesrepublik
Deutschland im Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2007-104
Karin Schulze Buschoff, Paula Protsch
Die soziale Sicherung von (a-)typisch
Beschäftigten im europäischen Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2007-105
Janine Leschke
Gender differences in unemployment
insurance coverage – a comparative
analysis
Order number: SP I 2007-106
Kai-Uwe Müller
Observed and unobserved determinants of unemployment insurance
benefit sanctions in Germany. Evidence from matched individual
and regional administrative data
Order number: SP I 2007-107
Achim Kemmerling
The End of Work or Work without
End? The Role of Voters’ Beliefs in
Shaping Policies of Early Exit
Order number: SP I 2007-108
Philip Wotschack, Eckart Hildebrandt
Long-Term Working-Time Accounts
and Life-Course Policies – Preliminary Results of a Representative
Company Survey
Order number: SP I 2007-109
Carrol Haak, Anika Rasner
Search (f)or Work
Der Übergang vom Studium in den
Beruf – GeisteswissenschaftlerInnen
im interdisziplinären Vergleich
Order number: SP I 2007-110
Günther Schmid
Transitional Labour Markets:
Managing Social Risks over the
Lifecourse
Order number: SP I 2007-111
Jaap de Koning, Yuri Peers
Evaluating Active Labour Market
Policies Evaluations
Order number: SP I 2007-112
Karin Schulze Buschoff, Claudia
Schmidt
Adapting labour law and social security to the needs of the “new selfemployed”- Comparing European
countries and initiatives at EU level
Order number: SP I 2007-113
Discussion Papers 2008
Simone Modrack
The Protestant Work Ethic revisited:
a promising concept or an outdated
idea?
Order number: SP I 2008-101
Günther Schmid, Simone Modrack
Employment Dynamics in Germany:
Lessons to be learned from the Hartz
reforms
Order number: SP I 2008-102
Corinna Malik
Die Arbeitsmarktpolitik der Bundesländer nach den „Hartz-Reformen“
Order number: SP I 2008-103
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