Background Study on Labour Market and Employment in
Transcription
Background Study on Labour Market and Employment in
FINAL REPORT/June 27, 2003 *Annexes 3 and 4 are under separate cover Background Study on Labour Market and Employment in TURKEY İnsan TUNALI Prepared for the European Training Foundation i Background Study on Labour Market and Employment in Turkey Table of Contents i Foreword iii Executive summary iv 1. 1 Introduction 1.1 The Objectives of the Study 1.2 Methodology 1.3 Limitations 2. Labour Market Situation in Turkey 2.1 General Trends 2.2 Wage Structure 2.3 Social Security and Taxes 2.4 Key Issues 3. Employment 3.1 General trend 3.2 Structural Changes in Employment (major sectors) 3.3 Employment in Private Sector 3.4 Regional Distribution of Employment 3.5 Rural Employment 3.6 Child Labour 3.7 “Hidden” Employment 3.8 Vacancies and Structural Imbalances 4. Labour Force Participation 4.1 Demographic Trends 4.2 Labour Force Participation of the Population 4.3 Labour Force Participation by Educational Attainment 4.4 Labour Force Participation by Region 4.5 Supply of Hours 4.6 Geographic Mobility 5. Unemployment 5.1 Unemployment Data 5.2 General Trends in Total Unemployment 5.3 Unemployment by Age Groups 5.4 Unemployment by Educational Attainment 3 14 30 44 ii 5.5 Unemployment by Region 5.6 “Hidden” Unemployment 6. Vocational Education and Training systems 6.1 General Status of the Education and Training System 6.2 Initial Vocational Education 6.3 Continuous Training and Adult Education 6.4 Training for the Unemployed 7. Labour Market Institutions 7.1 Government Bodies 7.2 Labour Market Regulations 7.3 Industrial Relations 8. Labour Market Policies 8.1 Passive Labour Market Measures 8.2 Active Labour Market Measures 8.3 Public Employment Services 8.4 Industrial Policies 58 73 79 9. Summary and Conclusions 90 10. Acknowledgments 98 11. References 99 Annexes Annex 1. Supplementary Figures and Tables 103 Annex 2. Glossary of Acronyms and Key Terms 121 Annex 3. Annotated Bibliography (under separate cover) Annex 4. Topical Reports (under separate cover) iii Foreword (will be drafted centrally) iv Executive summary This study offers a comprehensive overview of the labour market in Turkey at the beginning of the 21st century. The first chapter states the objectives, describes the methodology, and underscores the limitations of the report. The second chapter highlights recent economic and political developments, and introduces some key features of the labor market. Chapters 3-5 provide a detailed account of the trends and recent conditions regarding employment, labor force participation, and unemployment. Chapters 6-8 provide a summary account of the relevant institutional framework. Chapter 9 contains a short summary of the findings and identifies the challenges that Turkey faces in formulating its employment strategy. By the end of the 20th century, it was clear that the structural reforms that Turkey implemented during the 1980s and 1990s failed to deliver the favorable labour market outcomes (namely decent employment and wage growth) predicted by the proponents of reform. The crash of 2001 elevated problems to historic levels which had not been witnessed by the generations born after 1960, who account for over 60 percent of the population. Notably between the end of 2000 and the beginning of 2003, the number of unemployed individuals doubled. As the national unemployment rate climbed to double digits, the national The unemployment rate of the educated youth (ages 15-24, with high school education or higher) approached 30 percent. Mid career individuals (those in the 35-54 age group) accounted for more than 25 percent of the 2.8 million unemployed nationwide. In 2002, 65 percent of males and 25 percent of females aged 15 and above had jobs. Agriculture accounted for 35 percent of all employment. Attaining macroeconomic stability emerges as the precondition of solving Turkey’s employment problems and their distributional implications. Short term challenges include rendering mid career individuals affected by privatization and the crash of 2001 employable, and easing the school-to-work transition of the educated youth. Labour market implications of the policy shift towards agriculture, namely the removal of agricultural subsidies, loom large in the medium term. Also of concern are the dramatically low female labour force participation rates in urban areas. When viewed from the perspective of population structure and dynamics in the EU15 (even EU25), Turkey has much to offer. Thanks to dramatic reductions in fertility, the share of Turkey’s working age population is rising, and will remain high during the first half of the 21st century. Recent and pending reforms of the education system will ensure steady improvements in the quality of the new entrants to the labour force. Also welcome is the fact that improvements in average educational attainment have been accompanied by reductions in the male-female and urban-rural differentials. With key structural reforms out of the way, recent Governments have directed their attention to legislative and institutional reform called for by the Copenhagen criteria. The pace of change attests to Turkey’s seriousness in becoming a full member of the EU. Labour market reform directed at mediating employer concerns with flexibility and employee concerns about job security, has been on the agenda for some time. The anticipated comprehensive revision of the old Work Law (no. 1475) was recently implemented with the enaction of Law no. 4857 on May 22, 2003. Although the debates and concerns that preceded the new law are discussed in detail in the report, its full content and implications could not be incorporated into the finished product. Finally, the long awaited legislation concerning İŞKUR, the Turkish Employment Agency, was adopted in the Parliament on June 24, 2003. 1 1. Introduction 1.1 The Objectives of the Study The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the labour market in Turkey. Although the emphasis is on the current situation in terms of employment, participation and unemployment, historical data are also analyzed in an attempt to establish trends and patterns of adjustment during the post-1980 period. The analysis is complimented by a sweeping account of the relevant institutional framework and delivery mechanisms. 1.2 Methodology To the degree possible, the study relied on published research, reports, statistics and newspaper articles. Publications that were of direct relevance were groomed and their contents were summarized in the form of an annotated bibliography (included in the Annex of this report). This made it possible to identify what is known, and what can be learned from existing data sources. While some labour market outcomes are well-researched and documented, others remain largely untouched. To remedy the shortcomings, members of the team engaged in detailed preliminary investigations on eight topics covered in sections 3-5. These topical reports are included in the Annex. Experts from ministries, government agencies and universities (listed in section 11) were consulted on institutional issues, for the purposes of obtaining secondary data, and for checking findings that appeared suspicious. Starting with the earthquake that struck the Marmara region (the industrial heartland of Turkey) in the summer of 1999, several major shocks impacted the labour market in the past few years. Undoubtedly some of the recent deterioration in labour market outcomes will turn out to be transitory, and some will prove to be of a more permanent nature. In an attempt to identify the broad trends with better accuracy, available data were used selectively. For example, 10-year trend calculations were based on data prior to 1999. At times data from several years were averaged, so that measurement errors could be minimized. The team assembled for the purposes of this study consisted of: Dr. İnsan TUNALI, Associate Prof., Dept. of Economics, Koç University; Dr. Hakan ERCAN, Associate Prof., Dept. of Economics, Middle East Tech. Univ.; Dr. Cem BAŞLEVENT, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Economics, Bilgi University; Orgül Demet ÖZTÜRK, Ph.D. student, Dept. of Economics, Univ. of WisconsinMadison. In addition to the four members who had contractual responsibility for the project, a fifth was employed as a Research Assistant: Ufuk AKÇİĞİT, student, Dept. of Economics, Koç University. The report was compiled by Dr. TUNALI, who, as the team leader, is responsible for the overall project and the original report, written in English. The report was rendered into Turkish by Dr. Metin Çulhaoğlu. Naming and referencing conventions To the extent possible, the official English rendering of Turkish names were used. The original name in Turkish has been included in italics, inside square brackets, at the time of first use. Acronyms were typically based on the English version, except when the Turkish acronyms of the institutions were considered to be better recognized. A Glossary of Acronyms and Key Terms used in the study has been included in the Annex. To facilitate continuity in the text, references to cited sources and web documents have been given in 2 footnotes. Bibliographical information for conventional publications may be found at the end of the report. The topical reports mentioned in section 1.2 are identified by an asterisk (*). 1.3 Limitations Main data sources used in this report have been collected by the State Institute of Statistics (SIS). These include Household Labour Force Surveys (HLFS) which were conducted biannually (in April and October) between 1988-1999 and quarterly since 2000, General Censuses of 1990 and 2000 (limited info. available), and Household Income and Distribution Survey (HIDS) conducted in 1994. Due to legal stipulations designed to ensure confidentiality of the information, access to micro data collected by the SIS is granted on a case-by-case basis. However, select tabulations based on HLFS data may be obtained conveniently from the web page of the SIS. Time series data on wages are hard to come by, except for the manufacturing sector. These are based on establishment surveys and are available in the form of crude averages. Cross-section data on labour market income are available for 1988-89 (HFLS) and 1994 (HIDS). Three shortcomings of the biannual HLFS have been pointed out by researchers. First, it has been difficult to identify business cycle effects and track seasonal employment patterns (especially in agriculture). Second, the sample frame did not allow the construction of regional labour market indicators. Third, given the cross-section nature of the sample, it was impossible to capture labour market dynamics. The SIS has been extremely responsive to these criticisms. The quarterly labour market indicators published by the SIS starting with 2000 (I) are based on the redesigned HFLS. Major improvements include use of a moving reference week, larger sample, expanded sample frame that allows regional representation, and a rotating panel design. The redesign of the HLFS has ushered in two new problems. First, the expanded sample frame appears to have introduced a break between the bi-annual and quarterly series. The break is especially evident in the case agricultural employment. Second, the exploitation of the panel dimension of HFLS awaits a better understanding and resolution of the attrition problems. Presently adequate information for analyzing labour market dynamics (namely, transition rates between labour market states) is unavailable. Starting with the biannual HLFS, standard ILO definitions have been employed for the purposes of arriving at labour market indicators.1 This renders statistics based on the HLFS comparable to those used in the EU. When other data sources are used, deviations from the norm and coverage problems are underscored in the relevant subsections. The SIS has been revising its data collection methods and survey instruments to adapt to Eurostat standards.2 Household based surveys have led the way in terms of improvements. Two of the three household surveys that the SIS administers, the HLFS and the Household Budget Survey (formerly called Consumption Expenditure Survey [HCES]), are presently being conducted continuously. The revised HIDS will soon follow suit. The resulting data sets will make it possible to paint an integrated picture of how the changes in labour market outcomes are reflected in the well-being of households, so that sources of income and wage inequality, and poverty can be properly understood and tackled. 1 Detailed information on the history of the HLFS and its current format and content is available on the SIS web page, http://www.die.gov.tr, and in Turkish in SIS (2001a). 2 Additional information may be found on the SIS web page. In particular, the statistics section of the “2002 Progress Report” published by the EU Commission is available: see http://www.die.gov.tr/abkd/Progress2002Statistics.pdf. 3 2. Labour Market Situation in Turkey 2.1 General Trends The Turkish economy suffered from several major shocks during the past decade. These resulted in substantial fluctuations in the standard of living. Figure 2.1.1 shows the evolution of the GNP per capita (at current prices, converted to US$ based on the average exchange rate) and the annual growth rate (of the GNP) between 1988 and 2001. Four events, which are responsible for the drops identified in the graph, are worth recounting. In January 1991 the Gulf War started. Turkey’s trade with Iraq and other countries in the region was negatively affected. The next crisis was homemade. Due to mounting concerns about the Government’s handling of public sector barrowing, the lira lost 70 percent of its value against the US dollar during the first three months of 1994. Inflation and interest rates skyrocketed after the stabilization program was adopted in April. In the early part of 1999, the lagged impact of the Russian crisis was felt in Turkey. In the second half of the year, two earthquakes devastated the Eastern part of the Marmara region which accounted for 5 percent of the establishments, more than 6 percent of the workforce, and about 15 percent of the value added in Turkish manufacturing in 1997. Finally, 2001 went into the record books as the year of the severest economic crisis in Turkey since the 1950s. Financial markets came to the brink of collapse in November 2000, but the actual crash came in February 2001. Figure 2.1.1. GNP per capita (at current prices) and growth rate, 1988-2002 US$ % 3300 15 3100 10 2900 2700 5 2500 0 1991 2300 1999 2100 -5 1994 1900 -10 1700 2001 1500 -15 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 GNP per capita 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Growth Rate Source: State Planning Organisation, as reported in *Akçiğit (2003), Figure 1. During the past decade Turkey was governed by various coalition governments. As populist concerns prevailed, the impetus for reform and change that marked the previous decade was lost. The 90s were characterized by a moderate average growth rate of about 3.5 percent per annum despite many homemade and imported economic crises, but a dismal average annual employment growth record at about 1.5 percent. The general election in Spring 1999 brought a new and unlikely coalition of three parties (one each from left of centre, right of centre, and extreme right) to power. Concerns about sustainability of internal and external debt ushered 4 in a stabilization and inflation reduction program, which ran into trouble late in 2000. The distortions induced by the exchange rate anchor proved unsustainable and the program ended abruptly with a major devaluation and a floating Turkish Lira in February 2001. The ensuing economic crisis set the stage for some major reforms. Legislative changes established the independence of the Central Bank and promoted budgetary discipline. In Figure 2.1.2 the annual changes in the TL/US$ exchange rate, CPI, and WPI over the period 1988-2001 are shown. In the absence of indexation, the inflation experience of the 80s and beyond resulted in dramatic fluctuations in the standard of living. In the general elections held on November 3rd, 2002, voters penalized political parties that participated in recent governments by shutting them out of the Parliament. Of the 32 that contested the elections, only two parties were able to gain representation in the Parliament. Right-of-centre Justice and Development [AKP], founded only 18 months ago, was swept to power with 34 percent of the popular vote and 363 seats. Left-of-centre Republican People’s Party [CHP] won 19 percent of the vote and 178 seats. Figure 2.1.2. Changes in the TL/US$ exchange rate, CPI and WPI, 1988-2002 Percent 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year TL/US$ CPI WPI Source: Ministry of Trade and Central Bank of Turkey Economic challenges that await the new government include achieving sustainable growth without inflation, servicing of an external debt stock that has reached $120 billion, and borrowing internally when real interest rates hover around 25 percent per annum. The weakened financial and banking sector and a real sector that has ground to a halt are looking for innovative policy initiatives that can restore confidence. With 2.8 million unemployed individuals nationwide (as of the first quarter of 2003), unemployment rates that hover around 30 percent for the educated youth (15-24 year olds with high school and university diplomas) residing in urban areas, and urban labour force participation rates dipping under 45 percent, employment problems loom large. Historically subsidies to small farms have helped sustain a large rural workforce and kept urban unemployment at bay. With the removal of the subsidies, a new challenge emerges: How to keep rural-urban migration and urban unemployment under check. On the political front, the government has to deal with regional issues and the reform expectations of the EU. 5 2.2 Wage Structure Real wages: Data limitations preclude a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of wage patterns over time.3 Available series either come from specific sectors (such as manufacturing) or are based on indirect methods of calculation (such as share of employee income in GDP). The series shown in Figure 2.2.2 are based on the annual surveys of establishments in manufacturing conducted by the SIS.4 The data for the private sector are from establishments with 25 or more employees. The nominal series were deflated using the CPI (1987 = 100). The third series tracks the private-public wage differential (private sector wage as a percentage of the public sector wage). 700 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Thousand 1987 TL 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Percent Figure 2.2.1. Average real wages in manufacturing, 1988-1997 88 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 private public private/public Source: SIS (1999, 2000). Average real manufacturing wages were stagnant in the private sector and declining in the public sector during the non-democratic climate of the early-to-mid 80s. Averages in both the public and private sectors rose sharply during the 1989-91 period with the return of populist policies, as the gap in favour of the public sector widened. Public sector workers experienced additional real wage increases in 1992 and 1993. The gains were severely 3 Three rounds of the biannual HLFS, 1988-October, 1989-April and 1989-October, collected nationally representative data on individual labour income and hours of work from the household side. Although the sampling framework does not support average wage calculations by region, sector, etc., it is possible to rely on econometric techniques for the purposes of inferring wage differentials by variables such as education, sex, and firm size. Another useful source for evaluating the sources of earnings differentials is the HIDS, which was conducted nationwide in 1987 and 1994. 4 Tansel (2001) offers a detailed account based on these and some additional available series. We are grateful to Prof. Aysıt Tansel for updating the information in her paper using SIS (1999, 2000) and sharing them with us. See also Bulutay (2001), pp. 52-55. 6 eroded in 1994 and 1995, as wages fell sharply following the economic crisis in 1994. In 1994 the average private manufacturing wage was one-half that in public manufacturing. Subsequent events (such as the spill over from the Asian and Russian crises in 1997-98, and the earthquakes that hit the industrial heartland in 1999) impacted the economy negatively and restrained real wage growth. The crash in 2001 that sent unemployment to record levels is likely to have had a major negative impact on real wages. Wage setting: In its capacity as legislator, policy maker, and enforcer, the Government sets the minimum wage, the retirement benefits of civil servants and others covered by the publicly funded social security system, the thresholds and rates that apply to social insurance premiums, the administrative fines that firms have to pay in case of infringements of the labour law, and the benefit ceilings for workers who qualify for severance pay and unemployment insurance. The annual amount of severance pay is bounded by the maximum annual retirement bonus paid to the highest ranked government employee.5 The maximum amount of unemployment insurance is bounded by the net minimum wage.6 Although Turkey does not have a comprehensive centralized wage setting system, the government influences the pace of wage growth thanks to its role as a major employer.7 Wage changes are typically implemented by retrospective or pre-determined adjustments for inflation, and on occasion automatic indexation which is written into collective bargaining agreements between the government and the major trade unions. These serve as examples for unions in the organized segments of the private sector. Contractual wage adjustments are likely to impact the unorganized segments of the economy as well, as private sector firms try to fend off organizing efforts of unions, and as market forces trigger responses from smaller firms.8 As of 2000, about 20 percent of the paid workforce was covered by collective bargaining agreements (CBAs).9 Although legislation passed in 2001 expanded representation and 5 Ministry of Labour and Social Security (2001), pp.169-73. http://www.iskur.gov.tr/mydocu/sigorta.html. 7 The share of public sector employment has been declining, but is still high. According to Tansel (2001) the share of public sector employees among all wage workers was 33 percent in 1990 and 28 percent in 1996. Wages and salaries paid to central government employees equalled 6.6 percent of the GDP in 1996. This share was 4.5 percent in OECD in 1997. 8 *Tunalı (2002) provides evidence from the manufacturing sector. Based on 2-digit crosssection data from establishments with 10 or more workers, the pair-wise correlation between average wages in the public and private sectors was 0.46 (p–value=0.18) in the first period of 1997, and 0.78 (p–value=0.008) in the second period. The association between covered and non-covered sector wages was even stronger: the correlation coefficient was 0.85 (p– value=0.0005) in the first period, and 0.78 (p–value=0.003) in the second. 9 Arriving at an accurate estimate is a difficult task. According to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, there were 2.6 million union members in January 2002. Private sector workers accounted for 64 percent of this total. Share of females in the organized workforce was 18.6 percent in the private sector, and 8.8 percent in the public sector (Ministry of Labour and Social Security, 2002, p.126). Based on HLFS-2002(I), there were about 8 million regular employees who worked for pay. If the Ministry data are taken at face value, we arrive at a unionization rate of over 30 percent. Experts on the subject point out to double counting caused by members switching between unions and the incentive to inflate membership figures on the part of unions. They also draw the distinction between union 6 7 bargaining rights of public sector employees, the law bars some civil servants from becoming union members and forbids others from striking. Power of the unions in the private sector declined during the repressive environment of the 1980s and is considerably below the historical highs witnessed in the early 1970s. Minimum wage: Minimum wage legislation in Turkey dates back to 1967 and has been implemented nationwide since 1974. The Work Law (no. 1475) stipulates that minimum wages have to be adjusted at the latest every two years by a Committee reporting to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security. Turkey’s experience with inflation called for frequent adjustments. Starting with 1988, the minimum wage has been adjusted every year (in mid year), and starting with 1999, twice a year. Despite the frequent adjustments, real minimum wage has fluctuated over the years. It increased substantially during the 1989-93 period, dropped precipitously to 1989 levels in 1994 (around US$100), slowly recovered during the second half of the 90s, and peaked at around US$200 in 1999 before dropping to $120 per month in 2001. Up until mid 1989 a lower minimum wage applied to jobs in agriculture and forestry. A second distinction, between the minimum paid to workers under age 16, and that paid to workers who are 16 and over, remains in effect. The under-16 wage which was about 70 percent of the full wage in 1989, steadily increased to 85 percent of the full amount in 1999 and remained at that level afterwards.10 The daily minimum wage over 2000-2001 was around 25 percent of the average daily wage in manufacturing. Wage differentials: Data from manufacturing sector establishments with 10 or more workers -- where unions have a strong presence -- reveal a wage hierarchy. In 1997 (the last year before crises began to take their toll on the economy), among regular employees who were covered by CBAs, those in the private sector (on average) earned about 83 percent of what workers in the public sector earned. Among regular workers in the private sector, average wages of those who were not covered by CBAs was about 53 percent of that for workers in covered establishments. Data from 2000 and 2001 (1st period) reveal that the union-non union differential in the private sector remained unchanged, while the public-private differential in the covered sector widened.11 Econometric studies based on micro data inform us about various differentials, after controlling for other observed traits of the individuals. A study based on HLFS-88Oct. yielded a gender premium of 15 percent in favour of males, a firm-size premium of 9 percent in establishments with 10 or more workers, a risk-premium of 4 percent for casual (rather than regular-cum-contractual) workers, and a 4 percent penalty for rural (<20,000) residents.12 members who pay dues, and workers who are covered by CBAs. After examining the numbers from various sources, Koç (1998) gives an estimate of 22-23 percent in 1997. This figure is likely to have eroded following the economic crises. 10 See Ministry of Labour and Social Security (2001), pp.161-5. 11 See *Tunalı (2002). The figures for 2000 and 2001 (I) were in the 72-75 percent range, as opposed to 80-85 percent for 1997. 12 These estimates are reported in Tunalı and Ercan (1998), and are based on a nationwide random sample of more than 11,000 prime age (20-54) employees who work full-time (40 hours per week or more). 8 Inter-industry differentials remain even after personal human capital characteristics of the workers are controlled for. Workers in Mining and Quarrying, and Services are at the bottom of the wage spectrum. Then come Trade, and Manufacturing, where workers on average earn respectively 3 and 6 percent more. Relative to the two low wage sectors, average wages in Finance are 13 percent higher, and those in Construction are 27 percent higher.13 Differences in education turn out to be an important source of wage dispersion, especially in the private sector. Although slow but steady improvements over time are evident, the educational profile in Turkey at the end of the 20th century was still highly skewed to the right, and the average member of the labour force only had about 6 years of education.14 Nationwide survey data from the late 80s and mid 90s reveal that the rewards to education increase with additional levels of schooling. In 1994, the annualized rate of return to completion of high school (rather than junior high) for male wage earners stood at 10 percent in general high schools, and 13 percent in vocational high schools. For women the figures were 12 and 20 percent respectively. Male university graduates earned an incremental return of 11 percent relative to general high school graduates, and 9 percent relative to vocational high school graduates. In the case of women, the figures were 17 and 11 percent. The earnings profiles are typically steeper in the case of private sector workers.15 As measured by the size of the wage gap between comparable workers, women’s position improved in government jobs, but deteriorated elsewhere.16 The decline in union power and the decline in the employment share of the public sector have been implicated as forces that are likely to have increased wage inequality during the 80s and 90s.17 Indeed there is evidence from micro data that wage dispersion increased between late 80s and mid 90s, as a consequence of differential improvements in the returns to education.18 The summary statistics compiled in Table 2.2.1 reveal several important points. First, although the premium for school completion rose across the board for wage earners as a whole, the gains were particularly large at the primary and high school levels. Consequently the incremental rate of return to graduation from junior high beyond what primary school offered, and to university beyond what high school offered, actually fell. In other words, the incentive to continue past primary school was lower in 1994 compared to 1988, unless the individual had high school in mind. Similarly the rewards for going beyond high school fell. 13 Based on the results in Bayazıtoğlu and Ercan (2000), Table 3.1. They also use HLFS88Oct. but work with a different subsample: part-time workers (<40 hours per week) are included, agricultural workers and residents of small towns (<500) are excluded. The large premium earned by workers in the Construction sector is attributable to the risk premium that employers have to pay, as compensation for recurrent unemployment. 14 See *Akçiğit and Tunalı (2002). 15 The reported estimates are from Dayıoğlu (2002). See also Tansel (1999a, b). 16 According to Dayıoğlu (2002), the gap increased from about 7 percent in 1988 to 20 percent in 1994 for all wage earners, and from about 10 percent to 26 percent among nongovernmental employees. In the case of civil servants, the gap that stood at about 4 percent in 1988, was about 3 percent in favour of women in 1994. 17 See Bulutay (2001). 18 In World Bank (2000: 29), relative average wages by education level are compared using data from the Household Income Distribution Surveys (HIDS), 1987 and 1994. In Dayıoğlu (2002), annual earnings functions are estimated on samples of urban wage and salary earners obtained from 1988 HLFS and 1994 HIDS. 9 Secondly, civil service jobs became less attractive for males, but more attractive for females who have high school education or higher. Thirdly, the premium for education rose in jobs outside the civil service, except for women who graduated from general high schools. Fourthly, the forces that lowered the additional rate of return to junior high school relative to primary school, and to university education, relative to high school education, were at work across the board. Table 2.2.1. Changes in the returns to schooling, 1988 vs. 1994 1994 - 1988 change in the schooling coefficient (Reference: Illiterate) Read and Write Primary school Junior high school General high school Vocational high school University 1994 - 1988 change in the Rate of return per year of additional schooling (percent) Read and Write Primary school Junior high school General high school Vocational high school University vs. high University vs. voc high Source: Dayıoğlu (2002) 2.3 Wage Earners Men -0.013 0.118 0.068 0.135 0.163 -0.03 Women 0.078 0.207 0.14 0.267 0.395 0.214 Wage Earners Men -0.67 4.44 -1.77 2.43 3.52 -4.68 -5.40 Women 4.09 4.30 -2.45 4.63 9.73 -1.56 -5.13 Government Non-governmental Employees Employees (Civil servants) Men Women Men Women --0.082 0.092 --0.209 0.091 -0.107 -0.032 0.121 0.033 -0.11 0.199 0.138 -0.079 -0.063 0.196 0.377 0.152 -0.192 0.034 0.104 0.125 Government Non-governmental Employees Employees (Civil servants) Men Women Men Women ---0.51 4.29 --4.35 4.25 -3.76 -1.13 -1.08 -3.23 -0.11 8.23 4.72 0.63 1.67 8.58 5.01 9.72 -2.33 -4.77 -6.84 -1.02 -3.52 -4.49 -7.08 -8.02 Social Security and Taxes Social security: According to HLFS 2000-2002, 48-50 percent of the workers in Turkey have social security coverage. There are three major publicly administered social security institutions, with a combined pool of over 11.8 million active participants in 2000. These are the Social Insurance Institution [Sosyal Sigortalar Kurumu (SSK)], which is open to private sector employees and workers in the public sector, Retirement Fund [Emekli Sandığı (ES)], which covers civil servants, and Bağ-Kur (BK), which is a fund for the self-employed. Including dependents and pensioners, some 57 million people, or 84 percent of the population, are covered by the public social security system. Approximately 57 percent of the insured population is covered by SSK, 26 percent by ES, and 17 percent by BK. The share of privately insured individuals is a trivial 0.5 percent in the population. The data in Table 2.3.1 provide additional information on the three main components, and trace out the evolution of the system. In 1980 there were close to 1.3 million pensioners, implying approximately one pension recipient for 3.65 contributors to the pay-as-you-go system. In 2000 the number of pensioners exceeded 5.9 million, and the number of contributors per pensioner was down to 2. The situation is especially acute in the case of 10 SSK and ES, where the ratio of contributors to pension recipients was under 2 in 2000. To view the burden from another perspective, there were 5.1 beneficiaries per active SSK member in 1980, and 5.12 in 2000. During the same time this figure rose from 4.1 to 4.51 in the case of ES, and from 4.13 to 4.54 in the case of BK. Table 2.3.1. Social security system, 1980-2000 INSTITUTIONS I. THE SOCIAL INSURANCE INSTITUTION 1. Active Insured 2. Voluntary Active Insured (2) 3. Active Insured in Agriculture 4. Pensioners 5. Dependants (1) Total 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2,204,807 2,607,865 3,446,502 4,410,744 5,254,125 - - 300,000 980,841 843,957 - 18,300 74,407 253,463 184,675 635,815 1,070,681 1,596,634 2,337,755 3,339,327 8,407,100 10,654,600 13,561,000 18,555,865 22,541,181 11,247,722 14,351,446 18,978,543 26,538,668 32,163,265 Active insured per pensioner = (1+2+3)/4 3.47 2.45 2.39 2.41 1.88 Beneficiaries per active insured = Total/(1+2+3) 5.10 5.46 4.97 4.70 5.12 1,325,000 1,400,000 1,560,000 1,880,437 2,163,698 495,669 680,142 843,443 952,360 1,296,935 3,605,604 3,798,440 4,179,698 5,291,090 6,305,218 5,426,273 5,878,582 6,583,141 8,123,887 9,765,851 Active insured per pensioner = 1/2 2.67 2.06 1.85 1.97 1.67 Beneficiaries per active insured = Total/1 4.10 4.20 4.22 4.32 4.51 1,100,500 1,613,645 1,967,379 1,791,246 2,220,014 - 68,102 107,502 82,205 216,532 - 105,563 750,592 795,900 876,148 II. THE RETIREMENT FUND 1. Active Insured 2. Pensioners 3. Dependants (1) Total III. BAĞ-KUR 1. Active Insured 2. Voluntary Active Insured 3. Active Insured in Agriculture 4. Pensioners 5. Dependants (1) Total Active insured per pensioner = (1+2+3)/4 Beneficiaries per active insured = Total/(1+2+3) Total population 1. Share of all active insured 2. Share of pensioners 3. Share of dependants Share of all with social security coverage 138,317 294,469 595,889 880,820 1,277,444 3,301,500 5,918,977 7,911,324 8,282,543 10,446,180 4,540,317 8,000,756 11,332,686 11,832,714 15,036,318 7.96 6.07 4.74 3.03 2.59 4.13 4.48 4.01 4.43 4.54 44,737,000 50,664,000 56,473,000 61,644,000 67,804,000 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.34 0.40 0.45 0.52 0.58 0.47 0.56 0.65 0.75 0.84 Source: The Retirement Fund (ES), Social Insurance Institution (SSK), Bağ-Kur, SPO (DPT), SIS (DİE). (1) Estimate. Excludes Veterans and those under the coverage of Law No.2022. (2) The dependants of voluntarily insured person are subsumed under the coverage of social insurance schemes. The payroll tax is the second significant tax on employee income.19 Excluding the unemployment insurance (UI) premiums, the contribution rate for workers covered by SSK ranges between 33.5 percent and 39 percent of insurable earnings. The variation is due to differences in the occupational risk premium (1.5-7 percent) paid by employers, which is 19 Information on the contribution rates was provided by the Treasury. A detailed discussion of tax incidence and calculations of the welfare burden may be found in Zenginobuz (1999). 11 typically around 2.5 percent. The rates are 3 percentage points higher for workers who qualify for UI benefits. Employees contribute as much as 15 percent (5 percent for health insurance, 9 percent towards retirement benefits, plus 1 percent for UI), while employers in the typical risk occupation contribute as much as 22.5 percent (6 percent for health insurance, 11 percent towards retirement benefits, 2.5 percent towards work injury and occupational disease risks, 1 percent as maternity benefits, plus 2 percent for UI).20 The effective rates depend on the income floor below which a minimum tax applies, and the ceiling above which earnings are not insurable (but are still taxed). The nominal floor is adjusted annually by a multiplier which equals the product of the previous years’ inflation rate (based on the CPI) and the GDP growth rate. The ceiling is set as five times the base. In the case of ES, the contribution rate is about 35 percent of insurable earnings. The public servant pays 15 percent, while the State pays 20 percent. Self-employed individuals covered by BK need to contribute about 20 percent of their earnings towards their retirement pension, and 20 percent towards health insurance. Reform of the Social Security system: Historically surpluses from the funds collected by the Social Security system have typically been invested in government bonds. Prior to the initiation of the system of public auctions in 1985, government bond yields were often below the inflation rate. Consequently the accumulated surplus of SSK up until this time was all but wiped out. Combined with the increased cumulative burden on SSK and ES discussed above (see Table 2.3.1), this threatened the solvency of the social security system. The situation was especially grim in the case of SSK, because of compliance problems that were exacerbated in the 90s. The retirement system was overhauled in 1999, the main aims being the restoration of the actuarial integrity of the entire system, and solvency of SSK. Legal challenges to the grandfather clauses delayed the implementation of the legislation until May 2002. It used to be the case that women could choose to retire at age 38, providing they had 20 years of continuous employment. In the case of men the thresholds were 43 years of age, and 25 years of employment. According to the new law, for a new entrant the minimum age of retirement is 58 for women, and 60 for men. All retiree incomes are indexed to inflation, except those paid out by the ES. In an attempt to reduce the State’s dominance in the sponsorship of retirement benefits, a new personal pension scheme for workers and the self-employed was legislated in April 2001. It is based on voluntary contributions and is designed to supplement public pensions. Employers can also contribute to the system on behalf of their employees. Contributions up to 10 percent of gross earnings, but limited by the total annual minimum wage, are deductible from the payroll tax contributions. The fund is managed by private pension companies and is overseen by the Treasury. Taxes: Tax on personal income, which was about 7.5 percent of GDP in 1999, constitutes the most important single source of tax revenue in Turkey. According to Bulutay and Bölükbaşı (1999), personal income tax paid by employees accounted for a little over 3 percent of the GDP in 1996. They estimated the share of direct taxes less rebates (on VAT) to be around 20 In the UI law, the contributions were originally set at 2 percent for the employee, and 3 percent for the employer. In response to the 2001 crisis, these shares were reduced by 1 percentage point in the Budget Law passed in 2002. The State contributes an additional 2 percent to the UI fund. 12 13.5 percent of employee income. Social security contributions account for slightly less than half of the total. Thanks to the rebates, the share of taxes paid by employees on wage and salary income actually fell after 1987. When employer’s shares are added, the total tax burden on wage labour reaches 30 percent of payments to employees. There is evidence that the collection system is becoming more efficient. The fraction of the tax that is actually collected was 82.8 percent in 1994, 85.6 percent in 1995, and 88.1 percent in 1996.21 According to OECD data, in 1999 total tax receipts in Turkey amounted to 31.3 percent of GDP (OECD average = 37.3 percent; EU average = 41.6 percent). The shares of main tax sources, as a percent of total tax revenue were as follows (OECD/EU averages are given in parentheses): Personal income tax 23.8 (OECD=26.3/EU=25.6) percent; corporate income tax 7.6 (8.8/8.7) percent; employee share of social security contributions 6.9 (7.3/8.2) percent; employer share 8.8 (14.9/15.6) percent; taxes on goods and services 35.9 (31.7/30.9) percent; other taxes 17 (11/11.5) percent.22 In 1998, there was an attempt at reform but the proposed changes were dropped in 1999. No pending reform plans are known to be in the government agenda. To improve tax collection, Tax ID numbers were introduced several years ago, and are required in all banking transactions as of the beginning of 2002. Income tax: The income tax schedules for 2001 and 2002 applicable to wage income are shown in Table 2.3.2. In addition to income tax, wage and salary earners pay a ‘stamp tax’ at the rate of 0.6 percent.23 The marginal tax rate for income from non-wage sources is 5 percent higher at each income bracket. Between 2001 and 2002 the nominal brackets were adjusted upwards by 35.71 percent. By contrast, the CPI jumped by 73.16 from January of 2001 to 2002. Consequently the income tax became more regressive. An individual who had wage and salary income of TL20 billion in 2001 paid tax at the average rate of 22.6 percent. Assuming that the nominal income of this individual got fully adjusted for inflation, his/her average tax rate (ATR) in 2002 rose to 23.1 percent. If the calculations are repeated for someone with an annual income of TL70 billion in 2002, the change in the ATR is found to be 2 percentage points, from 30.8 to 32.8 percent. Table 2.3.2. Income Tax brackets, 2001 and 2002* 2001 2002 Maximum schedule schedule average tax rate (billion TL) (billion TL) (percent) min max min max 15 0.0 2.8 0.0 3.8 15 20 2.8 7 3.8 9.5 18 25 7.0 14 9.5 19 21.5 30 14.0 35 19.0 47.5 26.6 35 35.0 70 47.5 95 30.8 40 70.0 95.0 ---> 40 Source: http://www.gelirler.gov.tr/gelir2.nsf *Average exchange rate was US$1 = 1.2 mil. TL in 2001 and 1.5 mil. TL in 2002. Marginal tax rate (percent) 21 See Bulutay and Bölükbaşı (1999) pp.73, 78, and Table 4B. OECD (2002: 38-39). http://www1.oecd.org/publications/e-book/0102071E.PDF. 23 Information on the stamp tax was obtained from the Comptrollers Office at Koç University. 22 13 2.4 Key Issues The 90s were characterized by a moderate average growth rate of about 3.5 percent per annum but a dismal average annual employment growth record at about 1.5 percent. As a result of the 2001 crisis, Turkey found itself in the deepest recession of the last fifty years. In a span of two years the number of unemployed individuals doubled, and exceeded 2.8 million during the first quarter of 2003. An overwhelming majority of those lucky enough to have jobs saw their standard of living erode as real wages came crashing down. Increased wage inequality and lack of an adequate safety net for those without jobs, threaten the social contract. High income and payroll taxes, and a regressive tax structure, provide ample incentives for tax dodging and contribute to the ‘informalization’ of the economy. General elections held in November 2003 installed Turkey’s first single party government in more than a decade. As it searches for solutions to the country’s ills, the new government has to live with constraints that it inherited, such as an independent Central Bank, and the 6.5 percent primary budget surplus requirement of the standby agreement with the IMF. 14 3. Employment 3.1 General trend By way of establishing what the employment trends looked like before the shocks came, it is useful to examine data from the 1988-1998 period. During this decade total employment (of individuals aged 12 and above) grew at the rate of 1.5 percent per annum, from about 19 million to about 22 million. At the same time the number of individuals between the ages of 20 to 54, the subpopulation from which the bulk of the work force is drawn, grew by more than 3 percent per annum.24 In urban areas the growth rate was more than double this figure, approaching 3.2 percent per annum. Consequently the share of the employed in urban areas increased from 38 percent to 45 percent. In the meantime the share of the urban population increased from about 58 percent to 64 percent. The wide gap between the population and employment shares is attributable to the role of agriculture. The share of females in total employment declined from 31 percent to 29 percent while the absolute numbers increased at an average annual rate of 0.76 percent. These figures conceal the changing role of women in the workforce. In fact, the share of females working in urban areas increased from 19 percent to 27 percent of total female employment. During this time the share of females among workers located in urban areas increased from 15 percent to 18 percent, and the urban female work force registered an average growth rate of 4.8 percent per annum, significantly higher than the urban male work force which grew at the rate of 2.9 percent per annum. Women turned to the marketplace in increasing numbers. Among female workers in urban areas, the share of regular and casual wage and salary workers increased from 75.1 percent to 82.3 percent. Share of self-employment decreased from 10.1 to 6.2 percent; share of unpaid family work decreased from 13.9 to 9.2 percent. In terms of absolute numbers, there were as many self-employed women in 1988 and 1998 (106 thousand), and roughly the same number of unpaid family workers (147 thousand in 1988, 158 thousand in 1998). During this time the number of wage and salary workers increased by about 80 percent, from 792 thousand to 1.4 million. Number of female employers increased four fold, and accounted for 2.3 percent of the urban female work force. Number of casual female workers increased from 73 thousand to 107 thousand, but their share in the urban female work force decreased from 9 percent to 7.5 percent. As we discuss in some detail in Chapter 4, these compositional changes took place against a background of stagnant female labour force participation rates in urban areas. In Figures A3.1.1-A3.1.4 in Annex 1, employment ratios for the period 1989-99 are plotted by age group, separately by sex, and location.25 The gender differences are considerable (except for the youngest age groups) and are amplified in the urban areas. As children stay in school longer, employment ratios of 12-14, and 15-19 year olds have fallen over time, 24 This is a guesstimate, based on age-group-specific projections done by Frederick Shorter, using census data up to 1990. Model 2M, the preferred alternative reported in SIS (1995) yields an average of 2.92 percent for the 1990-2000 period and a total population of 66.8 million in 2000. According to the 2000 General Census, total population was 67.8 million, one million more than that predicted by model 2M. Presently age breakdown of the population in 2000 is not available. Applying Shorter’s 1995 estimate of 0.46 for the share of the 20-54 year old individuals in the total population, we arrived at the revised estimate of 3.06 percent per annum for the growth rate of the subpopulation of interest. 25 Circles mark the observations available in the biannual HLFS. 15 especially for the youngest in rural areas. Employment ratios of older females (60 or over), and males (65 or over) rose in rural areas, possibly because of improved health. In urban areas male employment ratios fell for adults. By contrast female employment ratios rose for young adults (20-24 and 25-29). The difference is attributable to the fact that employment growth has been especially fast in sectors such as textiles and services, where females are favoured. 3.2 Structural Changes in Employment According to the 1975 General Census, Turkey had a workforce (of age 12 and over) of 15.2 million. Close to sixty percent of the total was employed in agriculture, 14 percent in industry, about 5 percent in construction, and close to 22 percent in services. In 1990 the workforce was 19.3 million (18.2 million of which were 15 years old or older), and the shares were over 46 percent in agriculture, around 15 in industry, 5 percent in construction, and 33 percent in services.26 The shift away from agriculture continued throughout the 90s. As of 2000, a little more than 34 percent of the workforce (of age 15 and over, which was 20.1 million strong), was still in agriculture. Services had emerged as the new leader, at over 40 percent. Industry accounted for around 18 percent and construction for 6 percent. In the case of the female work force, share of agriculture declined from around 77 percent in 1990 to about 60 percent a decade later.27 Among females working in urban areas the share of agriculture dropped from 15 percent in 1990 to 9 percent, while the share of services increased from 39 percent to 64 percent. Manufacturing remained as the second most important sector of employment for urban females although its share decreased from 31 percent to 26 percent in total. Female concentration in services increased remarkably, as their employment share in the service sectors increased from 13 to 17 percent. In 1990 female workers accounted for about 28 percent of the work force in commercial services and 19 percent of those in community and personal services. Ten years later these figures were 30 percent and 27 percent respectively. The share of females in manufacturing remained stable, around 18-19 percent. Although they remained far from parity, females registered gains in white collar occupations. In ten years their share among scientific and technical personnel and professionals, rose from around 30 percent to 35, and among administrative personnel from around 32 percent to 37. Data from the civil service, which has traditionally been the primary employer of educated women, provide evidence of the ‘glass ceiling’ phenomenon. According to a survey conducted by the State Personnel Department (SPD) [Devlet Personel Başkanlığı] in 1994, 92.4 percent of general managers in the public sector are males. Among females who hold middle level management positions, 80 percent are supervisors, 15 percent are section heads 26 According to the 1990 Census, 23.4 million people worked. Sector shares were 53.9 percent in agriculture, 12.9 percent in industry, and 28.1 percent in services. Taştı and Daşkıran (1999: 9) attribute the differences between the HLFS and Census figures to differences in definitions and coverage. 27 There is reason to believe that the change recorded in the sectoral composition of employment between 1990 and 2000 is overstated. As we discuss in some detail in section 3.4, the largest observed drop in the agricultural workforce coincided with the switch from the biannual to the quarterly version of the HLFS. 16 and 3.7 percent are department heads. Among females the same fractions are respectively 51.3, 38.4 and 6 percent.28 3.3 Employment in the Private Sector A large government bureaucracy and state involvement in industrial and agricultural production are legacies of the early Republic which are still present 75 years later. Since the introduction of the multi-party system in 1946, both central and local governments have rewarded their constituents by using their power to hire new employees. Despite improvements in life expectancy, tenure and minimum age requirements for retirement with full benefits were kept at generous levels in the 80s and 90s to assure broader spread of the benefits of public sector employment. Although legislation increasing the minimum retirement age (from 43 to 60 for males, and 38 to 58 for females) cleared the Parliament back in 1999, legal challenges stalled implementation until recently. The share of the public sector in total wage and salary employment has been estimated at around 33 percent in 1990, 28 percent in 1996, and 12 percent in 1998.29 The shedding of the public workforce has mainly been implemented by privatization of the State-owned Economic Enterprises (SEE). Privatization has been on the agenda since the policy shift announced back in 1980, as part of the so-called “January 24” reform plan. The impetus for privatization was renewed following the crisis in April 1994 and a special office known as the Privatization Administration (PA) was set up under the Prime Ministry of Turkey.30 This office is involved in programs that seek to mitigate the unemployment consequences of privatization. The web page of the PA indicates that 46 percent of the displaced workers have used the services provided under the Labour Force Adjustment Project [İşgücü Uyum Projesi]. Data on the total amount of funds raised from privatization over 1985-2002 suggests that dislocation may have been especially severe after the sales in 1998 and 2000.31 Data from the top 500 industrial establishments in Turkey underscore the continuing significance of the public sector in terms of employment. In 2001, while ten largest establishments in the private sector (in terms of personnel size) on average employed a total of 42,779 workers, ten largest SEEs combined had 137,509 workers.32 Many of the latter are on the auction block. 28 The information has been provided by the General Directorate of the Status and Problems of Women (GDSPW) [Kadın Statütüsü ve Sorunları Genel Müdürlüğü]. 29 These figures are from Tansel (2001). Based on the 1994 HIDS, public sector employees accounted for just over 10 percent of the workforce and 33 percent of all wage and salary workers (World Bank, 2000, p.67). Public sector includes employees of the central government administration, local administrations (municipalities), and SEEs. A detailed examination of employment patterns up until 1998, broken down by the three components and employment status of the workers, may be found in Tansel (2001). 30 Information on this office is available on the web, at http://www.oib.gov.tr. 31 See http://www.oib.gov.tr/Implementations.htm. At the end of 2000, a 4-year Privatization Social Support Project was initiated and a fund for US$355.3 million was set up within the framework of the economic support programs negotiated with the IMF and the World Bank. These funds were to be used for covering severance and job loss compensation payments of displaced workers, and for financing counselling and training services aimed at their reemployment. For additional information, see http://www.oib.gov.tr/sp-index.htm. 32 Radikal, July 26, 2002. The figures are based on the results of a survey conducted by the İstanbul Chamber of Industry, titled “500 Largest Industrial Establishment of Turkey in 2001.” 17 Figure 3.3.1, based on data collected bi-annually (in January and July) by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security [Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı], from establishments covered by Unions Law No.2821 provides a clear sense of the direction of change in the 90s and beyond. Based on July-to-July figures, during the decade 1991-2001, number of workers in private establishments grew at an average annual rate of 4 percent (from 2,560 to 3,774 thousand), while the number in the public sector shrunk by 1.9 percent (from 953 to 789 thousand, after peaking at 1,045 thousand in January 1994). During this period the employment share of the private establishments rose from 72.9 to 82.7 percent. Figure 3.3.1. Number of contractual workers by establishment type and private share 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 84.0% 82.0% 80.0% 78.0% 2,500,000 76.0% 2,000,000 74.0% private public priv_share 1,500,000 72.0% 1,000,000 500,000 68.0% 66.0% tim e 19 91 .7 19 92 .1 19 92 .7 19 93 .1 19 93 .7 19 94 .1 19 94 .7 19 95 .1 19 95 .7 19 96 .1 19 96 .7 19 97 .1 19 97 .7 19 98 .1 19 98 .7 19 99 .1 19 99 .7 20 00 .1 20 00 .7 20 01 .1 20 01 .7 0 70.0% Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security (2001), pp.137-8. HLFS data from 1995-2001 available on the SIS web page allow us to capture recent trends from another perspective. We rely on the question on the workplaces of the workers and keep track of those employed in public and “fixed” private establishments. The remaining choices are field, market place, mobile, irregular, home, and a residual category. Since those who do not work in fixed places are in all the private sector, our measure underestimates the size of the workforce in the private sector and overestimates the employment share of the public sector. Thus the private-public distinction we are able to draw is not perfect, but is consistent over time. Since agriculture dominates economic activities in rural areas, we focus on urban areas and disaggregate the data by sex and 5-year age groups.33 We average the data for 1995-96 and 2000-01 (to minimize measurement errors) and examine the changes that took place over a period of five years in the mix and number of employees in public and fixed private establishments, which constitute nearly 80 percent of the total for both males and females.34 33 The Law on Civil Servants stipulates 18 as the “general” minimum age for becoming a civil servant, and indicates that exceptions could be granted to vocational and technical school graduates who are at least 15 years old. Consequently few public sector jobs are available for those in the 15-19 age group. 34 The details may be found in *Öztürk and Tunalı (2002). 18 Between 95-96 and 2000-01, the size of the urban workforce working in public and fixed private establishments increased by 15 percent, from 6,437 thousand to 7,415 thousand. The share of private establishments rose from 75 to 77 percent of the total. In Figures 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 the distributions of the public-by-age and private-by-age shares are graphed (using the abbreviated labels public and private) respectively for urban males and urban females. Note that the public sector share is higher for females than for males. Since the shares sum to 1 in each period, we are able to infer that the employment share of the public sector declined across the board. Figure 3.3.2. Share of the male urban workforce in fixed workplaces by age and establishment type Shares of Public and Private Employment, Urban, Males, 1995-96 vs. 2000-01 averages 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Public95-96 35-39 40-44 Private95-96 45-49 Public-00-01 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Private-00-01 Source: HLFS 1995, 1996, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Öztürk and Tunalı (2002), Figure 5. Figure 3.3.3. Share of the female urban workforce in fixed workplaces by age and establishment type Shares of Public and Private Employment, Urban, Females, 1995-96 vs. 2000-01 averages 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Public95-96 35-39 Private95-96 40-44 45-49 Public-00-01 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Private-00-01 Source: HLFS 1995, 1996, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Öztürk and Tunalı (2002), Figure 6. In Figures 3.3.4 and 3.3.5 we repeat the exercise using the absolute numbers, rather than shares. In a stationary environment without new recruits and retirement, the curve for 199596 would simply shift to the right by one age group by 2000-01. Evidently the public sector continued to hire younger workers (ages 15-39 in the case of males, 15-34 in the case of females). There is evidence that males were hired at a slower rate, while females were hired at a faster rate. Although legislation increasing the retirement age did not become effective 19 until 2002, we find that the absolute number of males in the 40-49 age bracket and females in the 40-44 bracket increased. This might be attributable to a reduction of opportunities in the private sector. As seen in Figures 3.3.2 and 3.3.3, although the share of younger private sector employees increased over the 5-year period, the shares of males above 50 and females above 45 have stagnated. Figure 3.3.4. Size of the male urban workforce in fixed workplaces by age and establishment type Public vs. Private Employment Shares, Urban, Males, 1995-96 vs. 2000-01 averages 1200 Thousands 1000 800 600 400 200 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 Public95-96 30-34 35-39 40-44 Private95-96 45-49 50-54 55-59 Public00-01 60-64 65+ Private00-01 Source: HLFS 1995, 1996, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Öztürk and Tunalı (2002), Figure 8. Figure 3.3.5. Size of the female urban workforce in fixed workplaces by age and establishment type Public vs. Private Employment Shares, Urban, Females, 1995-96 vs. 2000-01 averages 350 Thousands 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 15-19 Public95-96 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 Private95-96 40-44 45-49 Public00-01 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Private00-01 Source: HLFS 1995, 1996, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Öztürk and Tunalı (2002), Figure 9. 3.4 Regional distribution of employment The sampling frame of the HLFS prior to 2000 was not suitable for arriving at regional labour force statistics. To establish the regional contours, we rely on the population, employment and output figures from the 1990 General Census, given in Table 3.4.1. Comparable data from the 2000 Census are presently unavailable. Turkish publications typically distinguish between seven regions. These are (1990 population shares among people 12 years or older are given in parentheses): Marmara region 20 in the northeast (25.1), Aegean region in the west (14.2), Black Sea region in the North (14.4), Central Anatolian region in the middle (17.8), Mediterranean region in the south (12.3), Eastern Anatolian region in the east (8.8), and South Eastern Anatolian region in the southeast (7.4). Table 3.4.1. Regional employment and output in 1990 Share of All sectors Agriculture region in Emp. Share of Output Share of Share of Output population ratio region in per head region in Ag. empl. per head employment (Total=100) Ag. empl. in total (Total=100) 22.6% 157.92 12.2% 29.1% 161.56 Regions age 12+ Marmara 25.1% 51.7% Aegean 14.2% 60.4% 15.0% 105.55 15.1% 54.4% 126.03 Mediterranean 12.3% 57.5% 12.3% 97.65 13.2% 57.7% 114.07 Central Anatolia 17.8% 53.3% 16.6% 101.68 15.6% 50.7% 104.46 Black Sea 14.4% 65.1% 16.4% 60.35 21.7% 71.3% 69.63 Eastern Anatolia 8.8% 64.2% 9.8% 42.58 13.1% 71.9% 48.07 Southeastern Anatolia Turkey 7.4% 56.5% 7.3% 75.34 9.1% 67.5% 93.31 100.0% 57.3% 100.0% 100.00 100.0% 53.9% 100.00 Source: 1990 Census, as reported in Taştı and Daşkıran (1999: 73). In 1990 the Marmara region, which stands out as the industrial heartland of Turkey, accounted for 35.7 percent of GDP and 22.6 percent of total employment. Regions with sizeable shares in output were Central Anatolia (16.8 percent), Aegean (15.8 percent) and Mediterranean (12 percent). In terms of employment Central (16.6 percent), Black Sea (16.4) and Aegean (15 percent) regions had sizeable shares. While Eastern region had the lowest share of GDP (4.2 percent), South Eastern region had the lowest share of employment (7.3 percent). Central Anatolia contains Ankara, the capital city, where government functions are centred. This region is the breadbasket of the country. Mediterranean, Aegean and Marmara regions specialize in cash crops. Bursa, Kocaeli and İstanbul in the Marmara region, İzmir in the Aegean, and Adana and Mersin in the Mediterranean are provinces which boast a high concentration of population and industrial activity. Mountain ranges in the Black Sea and Eastern Anatolian regions and lack of irrigation facilities in the South Eastern Anatolian region have historically imposed limits on land use and agricultural activity. These regions are characterized by high rates of out-migration directed towards provinces in the Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean regions where the industrialization effort of the 60s and 70s has had the biggest impact. To provide a sense of where things stood in 2000, we include the figures from HLFS 2000 given in Table 3.4.2. Note that it is not possible to establish trends because the information in Tables 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 are not strictly comparable. The former relies on an age cut-off of 12, while the latter uses 15 as the threshold. Agricultural activities are not confined to rural areas, nor are rural areas limited to agriculture. The Census definition of employment is broader than the ILO version used in the HLFS. With these in mind, we refrain from comparisons over time and concentrate on regional patterns. The ranking of regions by employment ratio reflects the significance of agricultural/rural employment. The Black Sea region, land-constrained but blessed with favourable climate, boasts the highest employment ratio, ahead of the others by a comfortable 21 margin. The Eastern Region, also land-constrained and without a favourable climate, ranks second. Table 3.4.2. Regional employment in 2000 Share of All Urban Rural region in Emp. Share of Emp. Share of Emp. Share of population ratio region in ratio region in ratio region in Regions age 15+ employment employment employment Marmara 28.4% 43.6% 26.9% 41.9% 38.4% 50.6% 13.7% Aegean 14.3% 46.4% 14.4% 41.5% 13.0% 52.1% 16.0% Mediterranean 12.7% 41.3% 11.4% 38.0% 11.3% 45.9% 11.4% Central Anatolia 17.3% 41.0% 15.4% 36.9% 16.2% 47.9% 14.5% Black Sea 12.0% 62.0% 16.2% 42.1% 8.0% 74.6% 25.7% Eastern Anatolia 7.3% 47.5% 7.5% 34.9% 4.9% 59.1% 10.5% Southeastern Anatolia 8.1% 46.1% 8.2% 38.5% 8.1% 59.2% 8.3% 100.0% 46.0% 100.0% 39.8% 100.0% 55.9% 100.0% Turkey Source: HLFS 2000. When the data are broken down by gender, striking differences emerge. Figures 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 show the regional patterns in urban areas, respectively for males and females, for 2000 and 2001. In the case of males, employment ratios have declined everywhere, as a consequence of the recession. Largest decline is observed in the Mediterranean region (by 3.7 percentage points) followed by Southeastern (3.1), Aegean (2.7) and Marmara (2.6) regions. As measured by the range (= max – min), the regional gap in the employment ratio declined from 8 percentage points in 2000 to 6 in 2002. Figure 3.4.1. Male employment ratios in Urban areas, 2000 and 2001 Employment ratio, Males - Urban 80 60 40 20 0 Marmara Aegean Urban - 2000 Mediter. Central Urban - 2001 Black Sea Urban TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Urban TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figure 8b. In the case of females, regional differences are considerably larger, even though the national average is much lower than that for males. Eastern and Southeastern regions, which lag behind the rest of the country in terms of developmental indicators, have female urban employment ratios which are less than one half of the nationwide average. Evidently the long standing patterns of regional inequality have a lasting impact on the labour market opportunities available to females in urban areas. Furthermore, regional gaps have been augmented as a result of the recession. The range increased from 13 percentage points in 2000 to 15.4 in 2001. Surprisingly employment ratios in the Black Sea and Mediterranean 22 regions increased (respectively by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage point), despite the overall reduction. Figure 3.4.2. Female employment ratios in Urban areas, 2000 and 2001 Employment ratio, Females - Urban 25 20 15 10 5 0 Marmara Aegean Urban - 2000 Mediter. Central Urban - 2001 Black Sea Eastern Urban TR - 2000 Southeast Urban TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figure 9b. 3.5 Rural Employment According to the biannual HLFS, the workforce (15+) in agriculture which was 8.3-8.5 million strong in 1989-90, peaked at 8.8 million in 1991, was down to 7.5 million in 1993, and stood at over 8.6 million in 1999. According to the quarterly HLFS, the number was around 6.8 million in 2000 and 2001. It is hard to believe that agricultural employment fell by 1.8 million from 1999 to 2000, a reduction of more than 20 percent. There is good reason to believe that the dramatic reductions in farming subsidies rendered agriculture less and less attractive over time, starting with the mid 90s.35 Nonetheless the dramatic reduction from 1999 to 2000 probably has more to do with the changes in the sample frame than with economic trends. Given the improvements in methodology, the quarterly HLFS should provide a more accurate picture. In 2001 agriculture accounted for 14 percent of the GNP, but more than 40 percent of Turkey’s entire workforce (age 15 or over), and close to 70 percent of the female workforce. An overwhelming majority of the rural population (estimated at 23 million in 2001) derived its livelihood from agriculture. Despite half a century of commercialization and massive rural-urban migration, family farms continue to be the dominant organizational unit in rural Turkey. In 2001 there were about 4 million such establishments nationwide.36 These typically rely on the labour of household members (who are classified as unpaid family labour in the HLFS). Farming subsidies have played an important role in maintaining low 35 Historically there have been three major forms of state involvement in agriculture: product price supports, subsidized credit, and input price subsidies (see Gürkan and Kasnakoğlu, 1991). Total support amounted to about $5 billion in 1995. The figure was down to $3 billion in 1999, $1.5 billion in 2000, and 0.8 billion in 2001. In 2001, subsidized credit and inputs comprised around 60 percent of state support directed to farmers. The Government recently began experimenting with direct income support using program funding from the World Bank. Around 2.3 million farmers applied for $1 million slated for disbursement over 2001-2. (Figures provided by Rahim Yeni, Ministry of Agriculture.) 36 Estimate provided by Rahim Yeni, Ministry of Agriculture. 23 productivity family farms and curbing rural-urban migration.37 After the economic crisis in 2001, the mounting pressure to keep the Government’s finances under control has resulted in further reductions in farming subsidies. This is likely to result in faster transfers of surplus labour from the countryside to cities. During harvest season, news of temporary migrants who travel long distances in search of seasonal work to pick industrial cash crops (such as cotton and filberts), abound in newspapers. Changes in the size of the seasonal workforce in agriculture over time are difficult to pin down because of the biannual frequency of the HLFSs conducted between 1998-99. In 2000, SIS estimates that there were 242 thousand males and 105 thousand females (15 years of age or older) who worked for pay in agriculture as irregular (seasonal, casual, or temporary) workers. A year later the numbers were 180 thousand for males, and 107 thousand for females. Between 80-85 percent of these males, and 62-67 percent of the females were resident in rural areas. Taken at face value, irregular workers amounted to 5-6 percent of the male, and around 3 percent of the female workforce in agriculture. Notably, while irregular workers in agriculture accounted for only 12-13 percent of the irregular male workforce, they constituted a much larger share of the irregular female workforce, at around 42 percent. Data from rural areas reported in Table 3.4.2 help in establishing the regional patterns. The Black Sea region which is land-constrained, but has the benefit of a suitable climate boasts by far the highest employment ratio (at 74.6 percent) and highest share of the rural workforce. Even though it contains 12 percent of Turkey’s population of age 15 and higher, it provides jobs for close to 26 percent of the rural workforce. Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia, two other land-constrained regions that do not have the benefit of a suitable climate, have the second highest employment ratio (at around 59 percent). The contrast between Figures 3.5.1 and 3.5.2 reveals that gender gaps are present in rural areas, as well as urban areas. Recall that the three regions to the left (of the Central region) are the relatively more developed west and the south, and the three on the right are the relatively less developed north and the east. The variations in the employment ratio across regions follows the broader contours observed in Table 3.4.2, except the differences are amplified in the case of females. Following the economic crisis, female employment ratios have gone up in four of the seven regions, most notably in the Marmara and Aegean regions (respectively by 6.3 and 4 percentage points) to bring them closer to the national average. It appears that agriculture operated as a safety net in the relatively more advanced regions which were hit worst by the recession. 37 According to recent figures quoted by Prof. Ahmet Şahinöz of Ankara University, the agricultural workforce in the EU15 is about as large as that in Turkey as of the end of the 90s (around 9 million). While value added in agriculture is around $300 million in the EU15, it is barely $10 million in Turkey. 24 Figure 3.5.1. Male employment ratios in rural areas, 2000 and 2001 Employment ratio, Males - Rural 100 80 60 40 20 0 Marmara Aegean Rural - 2000 Mediter. Central Rural - 2001 Black Sea Eastern Rural TR - 2000 Southeast Rural TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figure 8c. Figure 3.5.2. Female employment ratios in rural areas, 2000 and 2001 Employment ratio, Females - Rural 80 60 40 20 0 Marmara Aegean Rural - 2000 Mediter. Central Rural - 2001 Black Sea Rural TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Rural TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figure 9c. 3.6 Child Labour The broad picture of employment in Turkey would be incomplete without an account of child labour. In 1991 Turkey joined the International Program on the Elimination of Child Labour (IPEC) initiated by the ILO. In 1998 it signed the ILO Convention 138 which establishes 15 as the minimum age of employment and calls for progressive increases in the minimum. Based on the regular rounds of the HLFS, a steady decline in child labour is evident. The fraction of those employed in the age group 12-17 declined from 31.8 percent in 1988 (36.5 percent for males, 26.9 for females) to 13.9 percent in 2001 (16.8 percent for males, 10.8 for females). Two special modules appended to the October rounds of the 1994 and 1999 HLFS provide data on a broader age group. The first survey collected detailed information on 6-14 and the second on 6-17 year-old children who were resident members of a household. Street children were not included in the sampling framework. Children in the 6-14 age group accounted for just under 20 percent of the civilian, non-institutional population in both years (19 percent in 1994, 19.4 percent in 1999). In five years the number of ‘working’ children in the 6-14 age group decreased from 974 thousand (8.5 percent in 1994) to 511 thousand (4.2 25 percent in 1999).38 The fraction of working children decreased from 9.9 percent to 4.9 percent in the case of males, and from 7.1 percent to 3.6 percent in the case of females. While children in the 6-14 age group accounted for one out of 20 employed individuals in 1994, the share was one in 42 in 1999. Table 3.6.1 contains additional information based on the most recent data source. In 1999 there were 1 million 635 thousand economically active children between the ages 6 and 17, amounting to 10.2 percent of those in this broader age group. Three main patterns emerge: the likelihood of engaging in economic activity increases with age; it is higher in rural areas; and higher for males. While children in the 6-11 age group accounted for 6.2 percent of the all working children, the shares of those in the 12-14 and 15-17 age groups were respectively 25 and 68.8 percent of the total. The dominance of small family farming is responsible for the considerably higher use of child labour there. Consistent with aggregate employment patterns, gender distinctions appear to be less important in rural areas. Compared to females, males are a lot more likely to work in urban areas. Table 3.6.1. Enrolment and work status of 6-17 year-old children (HLFS99-Oct) Location, sex and age group All 6-11 12-14 15-17 Male 6-11 12-14 15-17 Female 6-11 12-14 15-17 Number (1000) 16,088 8,131 3,934 4,023 8,202 4,155 2,000 2,048 7,886 3,976 1,935 1,974 All Turkey In school (%) 78.8 91.7 80.6 51.0 82.7 92.9 86.6 58.2 74.8 90.5 74.4 43.6 Working (%) 10.1 1.2 10.4 28.0 12.3 1.1 12.6 34.8 7.9 1.4 8.1 20.9 Number (1000) 9,576 4,852 2,271 2,453 4,926 2,480 1,169 1,276 4,650 2,372 1,101 1,177 Urban In school (%) 82.0 91.7 84.9 60.0 84.9 93.0 89.8 64.5 79.0 90.4 79.8 55.2 Working (%) 6.2 0.3 5.6 18.5 9.4 0.5 8.5 27.7 2.8 0.2 2.4 8.3 Number (1000) 6,512 3,279 1,664 1,570 3,276 1,674 830 772 3,236 1,604 834 798 Rural In school (%) 74.2 91.8 74.6 36.9 79.4 92.8 82.2 47.8 68.8 90.7 67.3 26.4 Working (%) 24.6 4.0 25.9 66.3 26.5 3.1 28.8 74.7 22.7 4.9 23.0 58.2 Source: SIS report on Working Children (“Çalışan Çocuklar”) Tables 8, 12 and Figures 26-28; http://www/die.gov.tr/cin/CIN-TR/cocuk99.pdf. The three age sub-groups shown in Table 3.6.1 roughly correspond to the age ranges for lower-primary, upper-primary, and secondary education. It is disturbing to see that close to 10 percent of the children in the 6-11 age group are not in school. The significant drop in the enrolment rates for the 12-14 age group is attributable to the fact that the data were collected 38 The children were first asked if they engaged in economic activities which resulted in income (cash or in kind) or if they supplied unpaid family labour, for at least one hour during the previous week. Economic activities included gathering of uncultivated agricultural products and other useful items such as firewood and grass for animals, picking fruits and vegetables from own garden, raising chicken and collecting their eggs, fetching water, milking animals, fishing, hunting, drying fruit and vegetables, and so on. Those who said “yes” were classified as engaging in economic activities. The children were also asked if they engaged in house chores for at least one hour during the previous week. House chores included doing the laundry, taking care of siblings or the sick in the household, cooking, cleaning, ironing, shopping, fixing household items, and so on. Those who said “yes” were classified as engaging in home-work. Note that it is possible for a child who engages in an economic activity to also participate in home-work. However, the 1994 survey did not elicit information on incidence of home-work from economically active children. The figures reported are from the SIS report on Working Children “Çalışan Çocuklar” available on line: http://www/die.gov.tr/cin/CIN-TR/cocuk99.pdf. 26 one year after legislation that made 8 years of primary education compulsory became effective. In urban areas children who are not in school, and who are not working, form a sizable segment. A large fraction of the male children in the 12-14 and 15-17 age groups are able to combine work commitments with school in rural areas.39 In 1999 a majority (58.8 percent) of the children who did market oriented work were engaged as unpaid family workers. Regular wage and salary workers constituted 23.7 percent of the total while casual wage and salary workers accounted for 15.7 percent. In urban areas these fractions were respectively 58.9 and 27.2 percent. In rural areas 83.8 percent of the working children had the status of unpaid family workers. According to HLFS-99Oct., nationwide average for weekly hours of work for children in the 6-17 age group was 37.4 hours. The average work week is quite a bit longer in urban areas (51 hours) compared to rural areas (30.5 hours). While only about 16 percent of the children in urban areas work less than 40 hours per week, in rural areas this fraction is more than 64 percent. Table 3.6.2. Sector of work for 12-17 year-old working children in urban areas Agriculture Manufacturing Food, beverage, tobacco Textiles, wearing apparel, leather goods Furniture manufacturing Other manufacturing Construction Wholesale and retail Auto repair Retail sales Repair of home appliances/personal items Other Hotels and restaurants Restaurants, bars, coffee houses etc. Social, personal services Barber shops, coiffures Total All working children Male Female 11.5 50 Wage earners Male Female 3.9 26 3.5 11.1 6.8 11.6 4 4.5 23.2 * 4.1 * 3.7 14 8.8 14.8 4.8 5.9 35.3 * 7.8 * 11.9 15.3 3.2 3.1 * 6.1 * 2.9 14.9 10.3 3.1 3 * 6.4 * 4.4 8.4 * 8.5 * 4.5 94.9 4.2 95 6.1 95.9 6.9 92.7 Source: Dayıoğlu and Assaad (2002), Table 2. * Cells with very small fractions. Examination of the economic activities that children engage in reveals that agriculture by far is the most important sector. According to HLFS-99Oct., 57.6 percent of the children in the 6-17 age group worked in agriculture, 21.8 percent in industry, 10.2 percent in trade, and 10.4 39 According to raw data from HLFS-94Oct, in addition to 761 children who were engaged in market work during the reference week, 68 children were seeking work. Among those who were not engaged in market-work, 243 children (2.35 percent of the full sample) had previous work experience. A very large majority of these children (76 percent) were residents of rural areas and had the status of unpaid family labour in agriculture. These findings suggest that the labour force participation rate for 6-14 year old children during summer months might be 2-3 times higher than the October figures reported above. 27 percent in services. Interestingly, the bulk of the reduction in the incidence of child labour between 1994 and 1999 is attributable to a decline in the absolute numbers engaged in agriculture. In urban areas there is ample evidence that children are channelled to gendered work careers. Children who make monetary contributions to the household budget are concentrated in households with the lowest income levels and account for a substantial share of household income (Tunalı, 1996; Taştı, 2001). According to micro data from the 1994 HIDS reported in Table 3.6.2, (12-17 year old) children are concentrated in a handful of sectors.40 Only male children are employed in furniture manufacturing, construction, auto repair, restaurants, bars and coffeehouses. Textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods emerges as the only sector in which female children have significant representation. 3.7 “Hidden” employment Although establishments might have the incentive to hide the true size of their workforce, individual workers do not have any reason to misrepresent their employment status. Thus technically speaking, information obtained from household surveys should provide an accurate employment picture for the resident population. Following this logic, “hidden” employment can be taken to be synonymous with employment of illegal immigrants. Defined as such it is not possible to provide a sound estimate of “hidden” employment.41 The term “hidden” employment is also used to refer to workers who do not benefit from the protection stipulated in labour law. As such, “hidden” employment can be taken to be synonymous with employment in the informal sector. Although one does not need to look hard to come into contact with the reality of the informal sector, quantifying its size is a difficult task. Estimates typically rely on information on employment status and/or social security coverage found in household surveys. Bulutay (1995: 200) focused on nonagricultural activities and included self-employed persons, unpaid family workers and employers with less than four workers in his definition of the informal sector. Based on HLFS-92April, he reported a figure of 16 percent for Turkey, and 26 percent for urban areas. Another popular definition takes the share of wage and salary workers who do not have social security coverage (often termed “unrecorded employment” [“kayıt dışı istihdam”]) as a measure of the informal sector. This figure has varied between 25 and 35 percent depending on the data source.42 Questions about the location of the workplace that have been added to the HLFS after 1995 have helped to provide better estimates. Using these Bulutay (2000: XLIII) arrived at estimates in the 20-22 percent range. Using the broadest definition (employees working in non-fixed places and in fixed work places with three or fewer workers) adopted by Bulutay and Taştı (2002), the share of the informal sector in nonagricultural employment approached 40 percent during the mid to late 1990s. Throughout 2000, the SIS fielded a special survey aimed at studying the informal sector of the economy in urban areas of Turkey. According to the preliminary estimates, 1.34 million individuals work in the urban informal sector. Using the HLFS 2000 estimates of the size of 40 Note that the HIDS was not designed for labour market analysis. The document prepared after the First General Board Meeting of İŞKUR provides an estimate of about 1 million (İŞKUR, 2001, paragraph 21). However no explanation of the methodology used in arriving at this figure is given. 42 Tunalı and Ercan (1998: 98) gave the figure 30 percent based on HLFS 1988-October. This figure reached 57 percent in firms with less than ten workers. Tansel (2000) found the uncovered share of the paid work force to be 25 percent in the two rounds of HLFS 1989, and 35 percent in the 1994 Household Expenditure Survey. 41 28 the labour force, 13.4 percent of the male workforce, and 7.9 percent of the female workforce outside agriculture belong to the urban informal economy.43 One reason this estimate is lower than those offered by Bulutay (2000) is the complete exclusion of domestic workers from the new survey’s coverage frame. According to raw data from H2LFS-88Oct., domestic workers accounted for 2.9 percent of the urban female workforce. According to HLFS94Oct., the fraction was 4.5 percent.44 Casual workers (who work irregularly for day wages) account for 42 percent of the urban female domestic workforce in HLFS-88Oct, and 69 percent in HLFS-94Oct. Economists have also used terms such as unrecorded or “hidden” economy to refer to activities which might not get reflected in national statistics. Kasnakoğlu and Yayla (1998) estimate the size of the unrecorded economy in Turkey using three different methods offered in the literature. Even though they yield different size estimates, all three methods suggest that the share of the unrecorded economy has increased after the mid to late 80s. Under the assumption that currency is the only medium of exchange used in unreported transactions, the size of the unrecorded economy is estimated to amount to 30 percent of the official GNP in 1997.45 Among the factors that have been implicated as contributing to the size and scope of the informal economy, are the fast pace of urbanization, high transaction costs in the recorded segment of the economy, and forces that limit women’s access to formal sector jobs.46 3.8 Vacancies and Structural Imbalances Statistics on vacancies are collected by İŞKUR, the Employment Agency (described in section 7.1). The data reported in Table 3.8.1 come from İŞKUR. This agency is responsible for processing applications for job openings in the public sector. Starting with 2000, applicants have had to take a written exam, called the Permanent Worker Exam. This exam was given in October 2000 for the first (and last) time, which resulted in a boost in applications between June 2000 and 2001. According to İŞKUR directorate, the large (42%) increase in the stock of the unemployed followed by the small (–4.5%) decline are attributable to the timing of the exam. As such it is an imperfect labour market indicator.47 Nonetheless the fact that 480,000 people took the exam attests to the continuing appeal of public sector jobs, and the bleak employment prospects that existed even before the economic crisis erupted. 43 See Bulletin no. B.02.1.DIE.0.11.04/906-168, dated 31/10/2001. Own calculations based on micro data. Three digit occupation codes 54x were taken to correspond to domestic work. There were 26 observations in HLFS-88Oct and 80 in HLFS94Oct. 45 The ‘transactions method’ yields the highest estimates (in the 30-60 percent range) and the ‘demand for money’ method yields the lowest (in the 9-13 percent range). 46 See Özar (2000), Şenyapılı (2000), and Tunalı (2000). 47 See Taştı (1997) for a comparison of the unemployment registration data of İŞKUR with the conventional unemployment figures reported by the SIS. 44 29 Table 3.8.1. Job applications, vacancies, placements -- June 2000-2002 Monthly applications Stock of available jobs Referrals to employer Placements Stock of unemployed June levels 2001 23,783 18,507 21,928 17,239 694,719 2000 36,489 36,204 26,752 34,104 488,294 Year-to-year change (%) 2000-2001 2001-2002 –34.8 –18.1 –48.8 –41.1 –18.0 –41.8 –49.4 –43.1 +42.2 –4.48 2002 19,471 10,894 12,773 9,802 663,615 Source: Monthly Statistic Bulletin of İŞKUR; http://www.iskur.gov.tr/mydocu/haziran2002.htm The data in the first four rows of Table 3.8.1 probably are better indicators of labour market conditions. The secular decline in monthly applications is attributable to the increased sense of discouragement caused by the ongoing economic crisis. The remaining three rows capture the tightening of labour market conditions from the demand side. It is difficult to go beyond these qualitative assessments. Data on the contractual labour force collected by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security (described in section 3.3 above), allow us to glean additional insights about cyclical patterns and labour market dynamics. In Figure 3.8.1 time series data on the stock, as well the absolute and relative magnitudes of the flows into and out of the contractual labour force are graphed. Net employment losses are observed in 1994 (the year of a major economic crisis) and 1999 (the year of the Marmara earthquake), but not in 2001, suggesting that the contractual labour force did not feel the full impact of the crisis until later. Outflow and inflow data underscore the significance of turnover. In 1998, the year when turnover was smallest, 18 percent of the workforce was replaced. Two years later turnover was at is highest, and 35 percent of the workforce was replaced. Figure 3.8.1. Contractual worker stock and turnover, 1993-2001 5,000,000 45.0% 4,500,000 40.0% 4,000,000 35.0% 3,500,000 30.0% 3,000,000 25.0% 2,500,000 20.0% 2,000,000 15.0% 1,500,000 10.0% 1,000,000 5.0% 500,000 0.0% 0 -5.0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security (2001), pp.136-7, and 172. 2001 stock inflow outflow % gain % inflow % outflow 30 4. Labour Force Participation 4.1 Demographic Trends Population growth: According to the General Census, Turkey’s population stood at 67,803,927 in 2000 and is estimated to have reached 70 million in 2002. Roughly two thirds of the population (65 percent in 2000) lived in urban locations with 20,000 or more inhabitants. Between 1990 and 2000 the population grew at an average annual rate of 1.83 percent, falling below 2 percent for the first time since 1945. The growth rate was 2.68 percent in urban areas and only 0.42 percent in rural areas.48 The large difference between the two is attributable to rural-to-urban migration. The figures from the 2000 Census confirm the conclusions drawn in a seminal study conducted in 1995, that Turkey had entered a period characterized by a definite and irreversible decline in the rate of population growth.49 Based on the assumption that replacement levels of fertility will be reached around 2005-2010, that study predicted that the population would stabilize somewhere between 95 and 98 million by the middle of the 21st century. Although recent evidence points to a slowdown in the rate of decline of fertility, revised projections await further work on the new census data. Fertility: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR, for ages 15-49), the number of children women would have by the time they complete their fertile period, stood at about 5.5 in 1970. It was cut by more than one-half by the end of the century. TFR in 1998 stood at 2.6, slightly below its level in 1993.50 Despite the dramatic reductions in fertility recorded in the 80s and early 90s, the fact that individuals in their reproductive ages accounted for a large fraction of the population dampened the slowdown of the population growth rate. The annualized population growth rate was recorded at 2.49 percent between 1980-85 and 2.17 percent between 1985-90, before reaching 1.83 percent in the last decade of the century.51 Age composition of the population: When fertility rates come down fast, age composition of the population undergoes dramatic changes. Examination of the likely evolution of the age structure of the population in 1990 and beyond reveals a dramatic rise (from 44 to 52 percent by 2010) in the share of individuals between the ages of 20 and 54. The equally dramatic fall (from 35 to 26 percent) in the share of the youth (0-14), combined with the increasing (from 4 to 6 percent) but still small share of the elderly (65 and over), point at a favourable dependency profile. This presents opportunities, as well as challenges to the government. If employment opportunities are forthcoming, a larger fraction of the population will be gainfully employed. The tax base will most likely expand, and as a consequence public savings will increase. Private savings might also increase. Even if the share of spending on education were to stay constant as a proportion of the GDP, a deepening of educational resources will take place. As 48 This and other information from the 2000 General Census reported below were obtained from the web page of SIS, http://www.die.gov.tr/nufus_sayimi/2000Nufus_Kesin.htm. 49 SIS, (1995: 5). See also Shorter (1995). 50 The figures are from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in Turkey in 1993 and 1998, and are reported in HIPS (1999). 51 Based on census data. 31 a result, average quality of schooling is likely to improve. If adults have jobs, children will stay in school longer, and can look forward to better labour market opportunities.52 As employment expands the social security system will prosper, ensuring the elderly to generous retirement and health benefits. On the other hand, if demand falls short of the potential supply of able bodied individuals, unprecedented levels of unemployment, poverty, and social unrest might lie ahead. 4.2 Labour Force Participation of the Population Trends in participation: Although the gradient has flattened considerably, the labour force participation rates (LFPRs) in Turkey are still on the declining trend that began in the 1950s.53 There is strong evidence that the decline in labour force participation has gone hand in hand with rural-urban migration induced urbanization. To a large extent this pattern has to do with the different conditions that households face in the respective locations. Simply put, in rural areas it is a lot easier for able bodied men and women to satisfy the criteria used for identifying participants: Firstly because of the dominant role of agriculture, and secondly because of the overlap in the work and home environments of agricultural households. Consequently all members participate in household based production activities. Households which migrate to urban areas have difficulty maintaining the continuity between the domains of market and non-market production, and members specialize further in one or the other of these activities. The form that this specialization takes is dictated by traditional forces, which charge men with the responsibility of bringing home the bread, and women with the task of maintaining the home and child rearing. Increased educational opportunities allow children to stay in school longer, and result in reduced teen participation rates. Finally, skill requirements of jobs in urban areas induce selective participation. Recent trends can be seen in Figure 4.2.1.54 Three patterns emerge from this figure: (i) Rural LFPRs are higher than urban LFPRs; (ii) male LFPRs are higher than female LFPRs; and (iii) the male-female differential is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. These are consistent with the explanations given in the opening paragraph. During the period under examination, the female labour force participation rate (for those 15 years or over) fluctuated between 16 and 18 percent in urban areas. A declining trend is evident in the other series. 52 The links between early withdrawal of children from school and economic hardships faced by the household are established in Tunalı (1996). 53 The longest available series is published in Bulutay (1995). For detailed discussion on participation patterns, see Dayıoğlu (2000), Kasnakoğlu and Dayıoğlu (1996), Tansel (1994, 1996), Tunalı (1997). 54 The drop in the LFPR observed in rural areas after 1999 is attributable to the changed sampling frame of the new HLFS. The sharp drop in the rural LFPR for females in 1993 is more difficult to explain. It does not show up in the published HLFS volumes prior to 2000. These rely on inflation factors derived from the population projections based on the 1990 census. The HLFS data base on the web page of the SIS (the main source used in this report) contains the updated estimates, obtained by applying the inflation factors derived from the Population Count in 1997. 32 Figure 4.2.1. Labour force participation rates (age 15 and above) broken down by sex and location, 1988-2001 Age 15 and above, 1988-2001 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% LFPR 60.0% Urban-M 50.0% Urban-F 40.0% Rural-M Rural-F 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 19 89 19 88 0.0% Year Source: HLFS 1988-2001. Participation trends by age: Figures A4.2.1-A4.2.4 in Annex 1 show age-specific LFPRs for the period 1989-99, plotted separately by sex, and location. Circles mark the observations available in the biannual HLFS. The patterns are similar to those observed for employment ratios (see section 3.1). Gender differences are considerable (except for the youngest age groups) and are amplified in the urban areas. As children stay in school longer, LFPRs of 12-14, and 15-19 year olds have fallen over time, especially for the youngest in rural areas. The combined effect of increased enrolment rates in higher education and high unemployment rates for males under 25 (subject of section 5.3), are manifested in the form of a declining trend in the LFPR of young males in urban areas. The decline in the LFPRs of prime age (25-54) males in urban areas is more difficult to explain. LFPRs of older females (60 or over), and males (65 or over) rose in rural areas, possibly because of improved health. Age profiles: When correlates are examined, well-known patterns are encountered. The patterns by education are the subject of section 3.4. The age profiles based on combined data from 2000 and 2001 are shown in Figure 4.2.2. The profiles for women and men are dramatically different. In urban areas female participation rates appear to peak early (approaching 26 percent in the 20-24 age group), but as we see below the picture changes when we control for marital status. In rural areas the female participation rate varies little over the life cycle and does not begin to drop until after age 54. Male participation rates peak during the mid to late 30s in urban areas, and even later in rural areas. This pattern is attributable to the fact that military service intervenes during the 20s. In urban areas male participation rates drop precipitously after age 44. This pattern is attributable to the low legal retirement age which remained in force until 2002. 33 Figure 4.2.2. Age-specific LFPRs broken down by sex and location, 2000-2001 2000-2001 averages 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% LFPR 70.0% Urban-M 60.0% Urban-F 50.0% Rural-M 40.0% Rural-F 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 9 -1 15 4 -2 20 9 -2 25 4 -3 30 9 -3 35 4 -4 40 9 -4 45 4 -5 50 9 -5 55 4 -6 60 + 65 Age group Source: HLFS 1988-2001. Marital status: In Figure 4.2.3 we re-examine the age profiles for residents of urban areas, to capture the interaction between marital status and participation. The bottom panels keep track of changes in marital status as a function of age (in the 2000-2001 cross-sections). Note that compared to men, women enter marriage at a faster rate, and have a considerably higher risk of being widowed. Divorce is uncommon. Closer inspection of the data reveals that the share of divorced women in higher than the share of divorced men in every age group. On average women are twice as likely to be divorced as men. The participation restraining effect of marriage for females is striking. On average single women are twice as likely to participate as married women. In each age group, the participation rate for single women exceeds that for married women. As a function of age the gap initially increases, then decreases. Both profiles are roughly concave. The peak rate for single women (59.2 percent in the 30-34 age group) is more than three times that for married women (18.2 percent in the 35-39 age group). Marriage is likely to have two reinforcing effects: First, the presence of a breadwinning husband might reduce a married woman’s attachment to the labour market. Second, if children are present, child care might become a priority and further reduce the likelihood of participation. Since market-based child care services are utilized by only a handful of families, and not all families live in extended households where help from older adult females might be available, presence of young children in the household is likely to emerge as a major factor limiting participation.55 Divorced women have the highest average participation rate.56 The highest participation rate (63.5 percent) is observed for divorced women in the 35-39 age group. During the productive portion of the life cycle (25-60), the participation rates of widowed women are 55 Evidence from micro data (HLFS 1988 and 1998) confirms this conjecture. See Tunalı (1997) and Tunalı and Başlevent (2003). 56 To a large extent this is an education effect. Compared to those who have basic education or less, middle and high school graduates are two times more likely to be divorced, while university educated women are three times more likely to be divorced. See *Öztürk (2002b). 34 bracketed by those of married and single women (respectively from below and above). Note that the peak rate observed for the age group 15-19 is attributable to a small cell count. Turning to males residing in urban areas, note that married men dominate the subpopulation of males above 30. Thus the age-specific aggregate male LFPR essentially equals the LFPR for married males. The data for single males above 40, widowed males under 60, and for divorced males are too sparse to draw strong conclusions. Nonetheless it is worth pointing out that men who remain single too long, and men who lose their partners, are less likely to participate than married men. Favourable trends: The fact that a significant fraction of women stay out of the labour force during their productive years, is of concern. There are many reasons for thinking that this situation is not likely to last much longer. As we discuss in the next subsection, the female LFPR rises sharply with education, and educational attainment is improving. Consequently an increasing fraction of the women in the young cohorts are expected to enter the labour market, and remain attached after getting married. The reduction in fertility and increased use of labour saving home appliances should reinforce this orientation. Finally, the increase in the minimum legal age for retirement (see section 2.3) is likely to prolong attachment (for males, as well as females). Unfavourable conditions: Why female LFPRs in urban areas have remained flat despite the favourable trends mentioned above is a puzzle. As we discuss below (in section 5.3), urban unemployment rates were considerably higher for women than men in the late 80s. The gap did not close until the end of the 90s. This may have discouraged female participation. On a more fundamental level, the volatility in real income experienced by many households during the 90s is likely to have dampened the demand for many services which employ women. The data on hours examined in section 4.5 below suggests that the labour market in Turkey does not offer the flexible working arrangements that have been credited for the dramatic rise in the fraction of females in the workforces of the OECD countries. Finally, the research on the links between legislation and female employment outcomes conducted under the auspices of the General Directorate of the Status and Problems of Women has identified what might be termed unfavourable, possibly discriminatory legislation. 35 Figure 4.2.3. Age group specific LFPRs by marital status (top) and share in age group by marital status (bottom), females (left) and males (right) residing in urban locations, 2000-2001 Urban females (2000-2001 average) Urban males (2000-2001 average) 70.0% 100.0% 90.0% 60.0% 80.0% Single Married 40.0% Divorced 30.0% Widowed LFPR Total 20.0% Single 60.0% Married 50.0% Divorced 40.0% Widowed 30.0% Total 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% Urban females (2000-2001 average) + 65 -6 4 -5 4 -5 9 60 55 -4 9 50 -4 4 Urban males (2000-2001 average) 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% Single Married 50.0% Divorced 40.0% Widowed 65 + 60 -6 4 55 -5 9 50 -5 4 45 -4 9 40 -4 4 0.0% 35 -3 9 10.0% 0.0% 30 -3 4 20.0% 10.0% 25 -2 9 20.0% 20 -2 4 Divorced 40.0% 30.0% Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001. Married 50.0% 30.0% Age group Single 60.0% Share 60.0% 15 -1 9 45 -3 9 Age group Age group Share 40 -2 9 -3 4 35 30 25 -1 9 15 65 + 60 -6 4 55 -5 9 50 -5 4 45 -4 9 40 -4 4 35 -3 9 30 -3 4 25 -2 9 20 -2 4 -2 4 0.0% 0.0% 15 -1 9 70.0% 20 LFPR 50.0% Widowed 4 9 -2 -1 15 20 4 9 -3 -2 25 30 9 4 9 -4 -4 -3 35 45 40 Age group 9 4 -5 -5 50 55 4 -6 60 + 65 36 4.3 Labour Force Participation by Educational Attainment57 Education system: The three-tier education system in Turkey has been undergoing changes. Until the passage of Law no. 4306 in 1997, the primary level consisted of 5 years of elementary school. Starting with the 1998-99 school year, compulsory education was extended to 8 years of basic education by combining elementary school with what used to be termed junior high school. As part of 1997 reform, junior vocational high schools ceased to exist. The secondary level consists of a minimum of 3 years of general or vocational high school, plus one or two years of language preparation in schools where the medium of instruction is a foreign language. Law no. 4702 enacted in 2001 provides the framework for extending basic education to 12 years. Since the 8+4 year structure called for major curriculum reforms, its implementation has been delayed. The tertiary system includes 2-year higher education programs oriented towards vocational education and 4-year programs that provide university degrees. Many universities have both types of programs and also grant graduate degrees. Free basic and high school education (funded by the State) is available for everyone. The higher education system on the other hand, does not have the capacity to meet the demand. New universities founded throughout the 80s and 90s helped expand the capacity and geographical reach of the State system. Much of the increase in capacity came through the expansion of the so-called Open Education [Açık Öğretim] system which offers 4-year degree granting distance learning programs that rely on lectures broadcast on national TV, and 2year vocational and professional schools [Ön Lisans and Meslek Yüksek Okulları]. Student placement is implemented centrally, by a public agency. In 2002, about 1.5 million students took the Central Entrance Exam (CEE). Of the total 548 thousand (36.5 percent) were high school seniors; the remainder were repeat-takers (63.5 percent). About 175 thousand students (11.5 percent of those who took the CEE) were placed in 4-year programs, 193 thousand in 2year programs (some of which allow top performers to transfer to 4-year programs), and 341 thousand in Open Education programs.58 Tuition charging private universities, most of which were founded in the 90s, accounted for 6 percent of all placements in 2 and 4 year programs. As of 2002 there were 53 State and 19 private universities. Educational attainment: To capture the educational profile and the recent trends, we rely on HLFS data for the late 80s (1988-89-90) and late 90s (1998-99-2000). We computed 3-year averages to reduce measurement error due to sampling variation. We examined the entire economically active population (age 15 and over), as well as its subdivisions: males, females, the employed, the unemployed, and the non-participants. The breakdown of the population and its subdivisions by educational attainment as of the late 80s and late 90s is shown in Figure 4.3.1. The two snapshots taken 10 years apart capture the improvements in education graphically. 57 This section draws from *Akçiğit and Tunalı (2002) and *Öztürk (2002a). To put things in perspective, in 1996 there were approximately 470 high school seniors among the 1.3 million or so who took the CEE. The share of repeat exam takers was around 64 percent. Around 395 thousand students were placed; 150 thousand into 4-year programs, 75 thousand into 2-year programs, and 170 thousand into Open Education programs. Information about the CEE may be found on the web site of the Student Selection and Placement Center [Öğrenci Seçme ve Yerleştirme Merkezi - ÖSYM]: http://www.osym.gov.tr/ 58 37 Figure 4.3.1. Education and labour market status, late 80s vs. late 90s Shares of Educational Levels 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Illiterate Non-participants 90s Non-participants 80s Unemployed 90s Unemployed 80s Employed 90s Employed 80s Female 90s Female 80s Male 90s Male 80s Population 90s 0% Population 80s 10% Vocational junior high school Literate without any diploma High school Primary school Vocational high school Junior high school Universities and other higher educational institutions Source: HLFS 1988-1990, 1998-2000, as reported in *Akçiğit and Tunalı (2002), Figure 1. Taking the non-institutional civilian population, 15 years or over, as our base, in the late 80s illiterate individuals accounted for 22.2 percent of the total, and 16.1 percent of those residing in urban areas. Ten years later the figures were 15 and 9.7 percent. As the 20th century came to an end, one out of 4.6 females, and one out of 17.7 males were illiterate. Ten years earlier the ratios were one in 3, and one in 9.6. The data attest to progress in the struggle with illiteracy, but slower progress in the case of females. In the late 80s males on average had 5.7 years of education, while females had 3.9. In the late 90s, the averages were respectively 6.8 and 5.3.59 Figure 4.3.1 hints at the presence of positive correlation between participation and educational attainment. In ten years the share in the labour force of those with basic (5 years of elementary school) education remained stable. While the share of those with less than basic education shrunk, the share of those with more education expanded. Compared to the employed, the unemployed have a higher share of university, high school, and middle school graduates. As we show in section 5.3 below, this has to do with the fact that the youth face a significantly higher risk of unemployment. 59 To arrive at the measure of average schooling, we assumed that literates without a diploma had two years of schooling, and all those included in the higher education category had 4 years of additional education. The details may be found in *Akçiğit and Tunalı (2002). 38 Differences across cohorts: In Figure 4.3.2 we show the distribution of the average years of schooling by age group broken down by sex, for the late 80s and the late 90s. Three patterns are worthy of comment. (i) Younger cohorts have consistently done better than older ones; (ii) Females have registered bigger gains at all age groups; (iii) The gender gap is smaller for younger cohorts. The gender gap is highest for people in their 50s (more than 2 years) and is less than one year among the youngest. Figure 4.3.2. Average years of schooling by age group and sex, late 80s vs. late 90s Average years of schooling 9 8 7 6 AYS 5 4 3 2 1 0 15-19 20-24 88-89-90 male 25-29 30-34 98-99-00 male 35-39 40-44 88-89-90 female 45-49 50-54 98-99-00 female 55-59 60-64 65+ Age group Source: HLFS 1988-1990, 1998-2000, as reported in *Akçiğit and Tunalı (2002), Figure 4. Education and participation: In Figures 4.3.3 and 4.3.4 the relationship between education and the LFPR is examined, respectively for females and males, using data from HLFSs. The line depicts the aggregate LFPR. Females with basic education or less have the lowest LFPR. Completion of a higher level of schooling boosts the female LFPR by a larger and larger margin. Up until 2000, university educated women were participating nearly as vigorously as males. Although higher educational attainment brings about higher likelihood of participation, a decreasing trend for participation among the better educated women is evident. Between the late 80s and late 90s, the LFPR of university and high school educated women fell by 10 or more percentage points. 39 Figure 4.3.3. Participation by education, urban females 1988-2001 Figure 1: Education and Participation - Female-1988/2001 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 primary school or lower 1992 1993 1994 junior high or equ. 1995 1996 1997 1998 high school or equ. 1999 2000 university 2001 UFLFP Source: HLFS 1988-2001 as reported in *Öztürk (2002a), Figure 1. Figure 4.3.4. Participation by education, urban males 1988-2001 Figure 2: Education and Participation - Male-1988-2001 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1989 1990 primary school or lower 1991 1992 1993 junior high or equ. 1994 1995 1996 high school or equ. 1997 1998 1999 2000 university Source: HLFS 1988-2001 as reported in *Öztürk (2002a), Figure 2. The finding that climbing the educational ladder increases the LFPR of women remains robust when age and other covariates are included.60 The participation inducing effect of education is stronger for women who are in their early productive years (ages 20-44). In the case of women in their middle productive years (ages 45-54), only attainment of a university degree makes a big difference. This suggests that university educated women not only have much stronger ties to the labour force when young, but also in their middle ages.61 Male participation rates display a V-pattern as a function of education. University educated males have the highest LFPRs. The lowest LFPRs are observed for middle school graduates. If this is a reflection of the demand for the marginal skills acquired in middle school, the recent extension of basic education from 5 to 8 years might not be adequate investment for the needs of the labour market. Also of concern is the fact that males with five years of primary school education or less have higher participation rates than high school graduates. 60 See Kasnakoğlu and Dayıoğlu (1996), Tansel (1994, 1996), and Tunalı (1997). See Tunalı (1997). These findings are based on a single cross section (1994 HLFSOctober). Cohort effects -- which could be attributed to the evolution of norms and attitudes, technological change, and perhaps improvements in the quality of schooling – are likely to influence the manner in which education impacts participation during the early and middle phases of the life cycle. 61 2001 UMLFP 40 4.4 Labour Force Participation by Region As we pointed out in section 3.4, regional data which are comparable over time are presently unavailable. The regional contours of participation in 2000-2001 can be established using the new HLFS.62 Since the patterns of variation are the same as those reviewed in sections 3.4 and 3.5, we refrain from further discussion. 4.5 Supply of Hours63 The HLFS instrument includes two separate questions on weekly hours of work: Actual hours of worked during the reference week, and usual (or normal) hours of work, the amount of time an individual typically spends at work on a weekly basis. In the HLFS data base accessible from the web page of the SIS, the information on hours comes from actual hours worked during the reference week, and not the usual hours of work. Furthermore the data are grouped, and reported for the following subdivisions: 1-16, 17-35, 36-39, 40, 41-49, 50-59, 60-71, 72+. Fraction of individuals who had a job, but did not work during the reference week is also reported.64 Given the dominant role of agriculture and the forms of utilization of labour in rural areas, the situation there is not of much interest for our purposes. In what follows we focus on workers aged 15 or above, residing in urban areas. Actual hours of work: Assuming that workers are uniformly distributed within the hours of work categories, it is possible to calculate average hours of work from grouped data.65 Under that assumption, we find that the average weekly hours of work has shown some variation over time around an increasing trend for both male and female workers. Overall average weekly hours of work has gone up from 48.8 in 1988 to 52.1 hours in 2001. The corresponding figures are 50.1 to 53.7 hours for males and 41.2 to 44.7 hours for female workers. Since a cut-off at neither 45, nor 48 is possible given the nature of the data, we chose to aggregate the data further, and examined the division of workers into the categories of 1-39, 40, and 41+ hours per week. With the statutory work week set at 45 hours for the majority and 40 hours for a sizable minority, it makes sense to treat actual hours below 40 as part-time work (rather than 30 or 35 as in OECD countries). Surprisingly the patterns for males and females turn out to be practically the same. Two main points emerge from the aggregate picture in Figure 4.5.1. First, the increase in the average is attributable to the rising share of workers who have a work-week of more than 40 hours. Second, the shares of those who work 1-39 and 40 hours fluctuate over the years. In the graph we also keep track of the shares of those who work (i) 36-39 hours among <40, and (ii) 41-49 hours among 40+. Line (ii) allows us to detect a trend for even longer hours among those who work more than 40 hours. Line (i) establishes the fact that a very large majority of part-time workers work 35 hours or less. It also isolates 1994, the year of a major economic crisis, as an aberration: Not only did the share of those who worked <40 hours decreased, the share of those who worked 35 hours or less among these also got smaller. 62 Figures 2b-2c, 3b-3c in *Başlevent (2002) capture the dramatic differences in regional variation that emerge when gender and location are accounted for. 63 This section is based on *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002). 64 Between 1988-1999, this fraction varied between a low of 0.3 percent (1998) and a high of 1.8 percent (1989). It was 1.9 percent in 2000, and 2.5 percent in 2001. 65 We excluded workers who had a job but did not work during the reference week from the analysis and assumed that average hours of work in the 72+ category was 80. 41 Figure 4.5.1: Distribution of weekly hours of work in urban areas, 1988-2001 All 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 <40 40 41+ 36-39 among <40 41-49 among 41+ Source: HLFS 1988-2001 as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 1a. Actual hours of work per week vary considerably when broken down by worker status. In Figure 4.5.2 the averages calculated for each subgroup (regular wage and salary worker, casual wage and salary worker, employer, self-employed, and unpaid family worker) have been plotted over time. The increasing trend is visible in all the categories except for casual wage and salary workers. Casual workers, who do not have employment protection, had longer hours than regular wage and salary workers throughout the period under examination. Figure 4.5.2. Weekly hours of work by employment status in urban areas, 1988-2001 65 60 55 50 45 40 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Regular W&S Casual W&S Employer Self-employed Unpaid f. w. Source: HLFS 1988-2001 as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 2. In Figure 4.5.3 we graph the distribution of weekly hours of work by employment status in 2001. When defined by a work-week of less than 40 hours, part-time work is most commonly observed among unpaid family workers. These are almost entirely female workers. The selfemployed and casual wage and salary workers also contain large fractions of part-time workers. In 2001 the share of part-time workers was around 8.5 percent overall, approximately 18 percent among women, and 6 percent among men. The share of part-time workers among regular wage and salary workers was only 5.3 percent overall, 9.3 percent for females and 4.2 for males. Whichever way the data are cut, the share of part-time workers is very low compared to OECD countries. Yet examination of the data on hours by marital status reveals that the share of married women decreases sharply as the length of the work week increases. These observations lend credence to the premise that the labour market does have the flexibility to accommodate married women’s needs. 42 Figure 4.5.3: Distribution of weekly hours of work by employment status in 2001 2001 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 <40 40 Regular W&S Casual W&S Employer Self-employed Unpaid family worker All 41+ Source: HLFS 2001 as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 3. Examination of the changes between 1990 and 2000 by sector and by occupational group reveals that the work week has gotten longer for everyone except those engaged in agriculture, who account for less than five percent of the urban workforce. As shown in Figure 4.5.4, between 1988 and 2001 weekly hours in manufacturing increased by more than five for males, and more than six for females. It is tempting to connect Turkey’s problem with employment generation with the upward trend in actual hours. The private sector has long been on record implicating high payroll taxes and severance pay as impediments to hiring. The literature on informality has identified the transaction costs of setting up and running a business as hurdles that stand in the way of expansion of the formal sector. It appears that concerns about regulation in general, and labour market regulation in particular, need to be addressed in devising employment policy. Figure 4.5.4: Weekly hours in manufacturing in urban areas, 1988-2001 55 50 45 40 35 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 All Male Female Source: HLFS 1988-2001 as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 8. Usual hours of work: Data on actual hours pertain to a specific week. If work has a seasonal component, or if economic shocks do not impact everyone at the same time, this might not the best way to capture what goes on in the domain of work. The alternative would be to use the data on normal, or usual hours of work. Measurement errors will be present, but there is no reason to expect systematic biases. In Table 4.5.1 we report average actual and usual hours of work per week on the main job from select rounds of the HLFS for comparison.66 We see that usual hours of work are higher than actual hours across the board. The differences are larger 66 Less than 2 percent of those employed report holding a second job. 43 for females, and are especially large in rural areas. The pattern of increased hours over time is still present in urban areas. Table 4.5.1. Comparison of actual and usual hours of work per week, on main job Urban Rural Male Female Male Female Actual Usual Actual Usual Actual Usual Actual Usual 1988 49.53 50.95 39.92 41.57 45.80 51.85 38.83 45.99 1994 51.14 52.40 41.05 42.61 45.48 50.17 38.23 44.86 1998 52.05 53.09 43.47 44.87 46.31 52.04 37.09 44.26 Source: Own calculation based on raw data from October rounds of the HLFS. 4.6 Geographic Mobility Broadly speaking, the east-to-west, and rural-to-urban migration flows which first emerged in the 50s are still in effect. Between 1985 and 1990 net outflows were recorded from the North (Black Sea, 19.9 out-migrants per 1000), East and Southeast (17), and Central (5.8) regions. Net inflows were recorded into the West (Marmara and Aegean combined, 18.2 in-migrants per 1000), and the South (8.5). Peak rates were observed between ages 15-19 for males, 2024 for females).67 Education selectivity of migration flows is well-established. Updates to 1990-2000 await release of detailed results from the 2000 Census. The differences between the countrywide averages (of the population growth rate) and the individual figures for regions and provinces suggest that the general contours of the internal migration process have not been altered. İstanbul boasted a growth rate of 3.31 percent, and was home to 15 percent of Turkey’s population in 2000. Two provinces registered even faster growth, Antalya in the southwest at 4.18 percent, and Şanlıurfa in the southeast at 3.66 percent. While 66 provinces registered increases, 15 had declines in population. With one exception, the provinces that registered declines are in the Black Sea, South Eastern and Eastern regions. Marmara region grew fastest (at 2.67 percent) and the Black Sea region slowest (at 0.36 percent). External mobility: Information on external mobility is extremely limited (mainly because there is no system of data collection). Although Turkey saw an influx of refugees from northern Iraq at the time of the 1991 Gulf War (put at 500,000 in newspaper articles), it is difficult to establish whether the flow was transitional, and how it may have impacted regional balances. News of illegal immigrants caught in Turkey, and competition from undocumented workers in day jobs, have frequently appeared in newspapers in recent years. One thing is clear: Legal emigration from Turkey is down to a trickle compared to the flows in the 60s. According to İŞKUR, less than 10,000 workers went abroad in 2001, and about 15,000 halfway through 2002. Largest flows recorded in 2002 were to Saudi Arabia, Russian Federation, and Germany. 67 SIS (1995), Tables 5-4 and 5-5. 44 5. Unemployment 5.1 Unemployment Data In what follows we rely on grouped and raw data from the Household Labour Force Surveys (HLFS). The grouped data are available on the web site of the SIS. We mostly focus on urban areas where the problems are most severe. The reference population is the noninstitutional civilian population, ages 15 and over. To get classified as unemployed, an individual has to satisfy three criteria: (i) did not work during the reference week; (ii) searched actively for a job during the past six (1988-99) or three (2000-2002) months; and (iii) is ready to start work in 15 days. According to this definition those who have found a job and are about to start working are classified as unemployed. The reference week was a fixed week in April or October in the biannual surveys (1988-99). The quarterly surveys conducted since 2000 rely on continuous sampling, whereby the reference week evolves with the timing of the survey. 5.2 General Trends in Total Unemployment As pointed out in Chapter 2, during the past decade or so the Turkish economy suffered from several major shocks. The first came in 1994, after the Turkish lira lost 70 percent of its value against the US dollar in three months, due to mounting concerns about the government’s handling of public sector barrowing. Inflation and interest rates skyrocketed, and the economy shrunk by 6.5 percent. In the early part of 1999, the lagged impact of the Russian crisis was felt in Turkey. In the second half of the year, two earthquakes devastated the Eastern part of the Marmara region which accounted for 5 percent of the establishments, more than 6 percent of the workforce, and about 15 percent of the value added in Turkish manufacturing in 1997. Finally, 2001 went into the record books as the year of the severest economic crisis in Turkey since the 1950s, as the GNP plummeted by more than 10 percent. volatility in the environment resulted in substantial fluctuations in the standard of living. Figure 5.2.1. Unemployment rate, 1988-2002 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 2002 - Period 4 2002 - Period 3 2002 - Period 2 2002 - Period 1 2001 - Period 4 2001 - Period 3 2001 - Period 2 2001 - Period 1 2000 - Period 4 2000 - Period 3 2000 - Period 2 1999 - Oct Source: HLFS 1988-2002, as reported in *Akçiğit (2002), Figure 2. 2000 - Period 1 1998 - Oct 1999 - April 1997 - Oct 1998 - April 1996 - Oct 1997 - April 1995 - Oct 1996 - April 1994 - Oct 1995 - April 1993 - Oct 1994 - April 1992 - Oct 1993 - April 1991 - Oct 1992 - April 1990 - Oct 1991 - April 1989 - Oct 1990 - April 1988 - Oct 1989 - April 0.05 45 In Figure 5.2.1 the series on the unemployment rate is shown for the period 1988-2002:3. The failure of the biannual HLFS (1988-1999) to match inferences based on other business cycle measures (such as that captured in Figure 2.1.1) and especially its inability to reflect the perceived effects of the 1994 crisis, have been invoked in raising questions about the manner in which the unemployment rate is measured by the SIS. The sample frame of the new HLFS was designed in response to these concerns. The revised survey has been used starting with 2000. The quarterly data published by the SIS appear to reflect the impact of the financial shock in the first quarter of 2001 and the depth of the ensuing recession. The nationwide unemployment rate reached 11.5 percent in the first quarter of 2002 and stood at 11.0 percent in the fourth quarter. According to the bulletins published on the web site of the SIS, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the number of unemployed individuals rose by 653 thousand in the first quarter of 2002, by 650 thousand in the second, 466 thousand in the third, and by 301 thousand in the fourth. The total number of unemployed individuals, which was estimated to be around 1.5 million in 2000 and 1.9 million in 2001, exceeded 2.8 million in the first quarter of 2003. Apart from its depth, another aspect that distinguishes the most recent crisis from the previous ones is its breadth. With the exception of those oriented for exports, firms in every sector of the economy, regardless of size, have been affected. The banking sector, which was implicated as the trigger mechanism of the crisis, was especially hard hit. Reorganization of the banks in the public sector resulted in a personnel reduction from 61,601 in December 2000 to 38,303 in May 2002. The workforce of the 500 largest firms was cut back 5.7 percent (from 558,288 to 526,314) in 2001. Public sector firms took the lead with a 7.1 percent reduction overall.68 Trends by gender and location: Between 1988 and 2000, the annual unemployment rate in urban areas of Turkey remained fairly stable for males and has been on a declining trend for females (see Figure 5.2.2). However, the recent economic crisis has reversed these trends. Out of a labour force of nearly 11 million in 2001, the number of unemployed in urban areas reached over 1.4 million, around one million of whom were males. The urban unemployment rate in 2001 was recorded as 16.8 percent for females, 10.3 for males, and 11.5 overall, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points from the previous year in each case. As mentioned in section 4.2 above, substantially higher rates observed for females may have been a factor in keeping urban female labour force participation rates low. Figure 5.2.2. Urban unemployment rate, aggregate and by gender, 1988-2001 Urban 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 All 1994 Males 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Females Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 1a. 68 Radikal (daily newspaper), 25 July 2002. 2000 2001 46 The trends in the rural areas (locations with a population of 20,000 or less) are shown in Figure 5.2.3. During the period under examination, unemployment rates have been considerably lower in rural areas. Mainly as a result of migration to urban areas, the rural labour force dropped from 11.4 million in 1990 to just under 10 million in 2000, and continued to shrink in 2001. Over seventy percent of the rural workforce was employed in agriculture in 2001. Due to weaker qualifications needed for employment, rural residents are less likely to be unemployed. While women have traditionally been economically active in family-owned farms, young men have sought work outside agriculture to supplement farming income. Starting with 1999 the cuts in agricultural subsidies and competition from imports appear to have put more pressure on men to seek for jobs. Figure 5.2.3. Rural unemployment rate, aggregate and by gender, 1988-2001 Rural 0.1 0.05 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 All 1994 Males 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Females Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 1a. Trends by reason for unemployment: Unemployment can be voluntary or involuntary. Although distinctions are not clear cut, useful inferences can be drawn using the information on the reason for unemployment provided in the HLFS. Starting with 1991, the survey instrument allows us to construct the following categorization: 123- Lost job: (i) worked temporarily, (ii) was dismissed, (iii) business got liquidated or went bankrupt. Quit the job: (i) due to insufficient income, (ii) due to unsatisfying working conditions, (iii) retired. First time job seeker (or newcomer): (i) just graduated, (ii) just completed his military service, and (iii) other. In Figure 5.2.4 below, we keep track of the changes in the shares of categories 1, 2, and 3 over the period 1991-2001. We also show the shares of those who just graduated from school, and those who completed their compulsory military service among the newcomers (first time entrants in the labour market). The first panel is for all unemployed respondents residing in urban areas. The data are broken down by sex in the subsequent panels. In the aggregate picture 1997 and 1998 stand out as unusual years in the sense that the share of those who lost their jobs was smallest. In 1999, the distribution appears to have reverted to the pre-1997 pattern. After 1999 the share of those who lost their jobs kept increasing, and approached 50 percent in 2001. That year nearly seven hundred thousand people lost their jobs. The number in the previous year was four hundred thousand. 47 Figure 5.2.4. Reason for unemployment in urban areas, 1991-2001 All 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991 1992 Lost 1993 Quit 1994 1995 Newcomer 1996 1997 1998 Just grad. among n-c 1999 2000 2001 Mili. serv. among n-c Males 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991 1992 Lost 1993 Quit 1994 1995 Newcomer 1996 1997 1998 Just grad. among n-c 1999 2000 2001 Mili. serv. among n-c Females 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991 1992 1993 Lost 1994 Quit 1995 1996 Newcomer 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Just grad. among n-c Source: HLFS 1991-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figures 6a-6c. The two bottom panels point out to a fundamental difference between the unemployment experiences of males and females. Among males, those who lost their jobs comprise the largest group. Among females, newcomers constitute a clear majority up until 1999, and hold the lead rest of the way. As primary breadwinners men are much more involved in the labour market, and consequently have a smaller share of newcomers among the unemployed. Among male newcomers, the shares of those who just graduated and those who completed military service are about the same, and account for 60-70 percent of all newcomers. Among female newcomers, the share of those who just graduated increased from 27 percent in 1988 to 45 percent in 1998. Although the severity of the 2001 shock is clearly visible for both sexes, between 2000 and 2001 the share of those who lost their jobs registered a bigger increase for females. The drop in the share of females who just graduated among newcomers in 2001 suggests that some 48 women who never worked before may have entered the labour force as “added workers” in response to the crisis. Duration of unemployment: HLFSs provide limited information on unemployment spells. Information on the length of the incomplete spell is collected from those who were unemployed at the time of the survey. No information is collected from employed individuals some of whom may have recently completed an unemployment spell. On the web page of the SIS, duration data are reported for the following subdivisions (in months): 1-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-23, 24-35, and 36+. It is possible to arrive at an average duration by making assumptions about the group averages. To obtain the averages plotted in Figure 5.2.5, we relied on raw data from three rounds of the HLFS and set the group means to 1.5, 4, 7, 10, 14, 25, and 52.69 Reported durations have been on a declining trend since 1996. Females have consistently had longer unemployment spells compared to males. It is tempting to attribute this to the fact that the share of newcomers is considerably higher for females on the grounds that it takes longer to get the first job.70 Figure 5.2.5. Average length of truncated unemployment spell in urban areas, 19882001 20 15 10 5 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 All Males Females Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 7. The average truncated unemployed spell which was around 14 months (13 for males, 17 for females) in 1996 was down to 7.3 months (6.8 for males, 8.7 for females) in 2001. If how long a spell extends beyond the current length is not affected by time already spent in the unemployed state, and if spell information came from a random subset of individuals who experience unemployment, then averages for the completed spells would be twice as much. Recall that the only information we have on the unemployment experiences of individuals comes from those who are unemployed at the time the labour survey is conducted. Since individuals who have longer unemployment spells are more likely to be unemployed at a given point in time, we obtain a more pessimistic picture of time spent in the unemployed state. Put differently, because we do not know how long it took recently employed people to find jobs, the numbers reported above are likely to be biased upward. 69 We used the October rounds of the 1988, 1994, and 1998 HLFS. Tabulations may be found in the appendix of *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002). 70 In the raw data there is mixed support for the premise that newcomers have to search longer. See *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), appendix. 49 In Figure 5.2.6 we examine the distribution of the duration of unemployment for job seekers in the urban areas. We combine adjacent categories and examine the shares in <6, 6-11, and 12+ months. We also keep track of the share of those who have been unemployed for (i) 3-5 mos. among the <6 group, and (ii) 9-11 mos. among the 6-11 group. We find that until 1997 long term unemployment (12+ mos.) was dominant. Starting with 1998, short term unemployment (<6 mos.) began to dominate. The share of the short term employed was 40 percent in 1998. It increased by about 10 percentage points between 1998 and 1999, and by more than 10 percentage points between 1999 and 2000. In 2001 approximately two-thirds of the unemployed were classified as short term, and 20 percent as long term unemployed. When the data are broken down by sex (not shown), we see that a considerably larger share of unemployed males were in the short term unemployed category compared to females. Figure 5.2.6. Distribution of the duration of unemployment in urban areas, 1988-2001 All 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 <6 6-11 12+ 3-5 among < 6 9-11 among 6-11 Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 8a. 5.3 Unemployment by Age Groups The evolution of unemployment rates in urban areas over the period 1988-2001, broken down by age groups, is shown in Figure 5.3.1. We focus on five age groups: 15-19 and 20-24 (entry into the labour market), 25-34 (early career), 35-54 (mid career), and 55+ (late career).71 Risk of unemployment is highest for new entrants. While the unemployment rate in 2001 hovered around 22 percent in the 15-19 and 20-24 age brackets, it was below 10 percent for the remaining age groups. The decline in the youth unemployment rates over time is attributable to increases in high school and university enrolment. As of the end of the time period under examination, individuals in their late careers have the lowest unemployment rate, just above 5 percent. 71 Figures A5.3.1-A5.3.4 in Annex 1 show age-specific unemployment rates for 5-year age groups over the period 1989-99, plotted separately by sex, and location. Circles mark the observations available in the biannual HLFS. Since unemployment is a relatively rare outcome, small sample sizes introduce extraneous fluctuations in some of the series. We work with five age groups because sharper conclusions can be drawn after aggregation. 50 Figure 5.3.1. Urban unemployment rate by age group, 1988-2001 0.3 0.25 15-19 0.2 20-24 0.15 25-34 0.1 35-54 55+ 0.05 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 3. Figure 5.3.2 shows how the age composition evolved over time. The most dramatic changes are the reduction in the share of the 15-19 group and the increase in the share of the 35-54 group. As seen in Figure 5.3.1, all except people in their late careers were affected by the 2001 crisis. Those in mid career (ages 35-54) were hit worse than others as attested by the sharp increase in their share among the unemployed. As implied by the shape of the age profile of participation (see Figure 4.2.2) individuals in their late careers are a select group. Their share among the urban unemployed is a tiny fraction. Figure 5.3.2. Composition of urban unemployment by age group, 1988-2001 0.35 0.3 15-19 0.25 20-24 0.2 25-34 0.15 35-54 0.1 55+ 0.05 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: HLFS 1988-2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 4. In 2000, just over three-quarters of the unemployed were under the age of 35. During the decade under examination, both the labour force and the unemployed got older. These have to do with changes in the age composition of the population (see section 4.1) and extended schooling (see section 4.3). Gender breakdown (not shown) does not alter the big picture except that larger shares of men are in the “older” age groups, and the decrease in the unemployment rate with age is much more visible among women. Both patterns have to do with the fact that men leave the labour force later than women. 5.4 Unemployment by Educational Attainment Unemployment rates vary dramatically across groups with different levels of education. We focus on urban areas and investigate the patterns in 1990, 2000, and 2001 separately for males and females in Figures 5.4.1 and 5.4.2. The comparison of 1990 and 2000 provides some sense of the trends that existed before the crisis hit in 2001. In the figures we show the 51 unemployment rate (connected circles), as well as the composition of the unemployed (darker bars) broken down by the level of education. For comparison we also include the share of the labour force with a given level of education (lighter bars) and plot the average unemployment rate (horizontal line). Figure 5.4.1. Male unemployment by level of education in 1990, 2000, and 2001 1990 Urban - Males 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate 2000 Urban - Males 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate 2001 Urban - Males 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate Source: HLFS 1990, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 2b. On the whole unemployment risk (group’s share among the unemployed) appears to be distributed in proportion to the group’s share in the labour force. The pattern is different for females who have high school education or above. While female (regular and vocational) high school graduates are exposed to higher risk of unemployment (relative to their share in the labour force), female university graduates confront a lower risk. 52 Figure 5.4.2. Female unemployment by level of education in 1990, 2000, and 2001 1990 Urban - Females 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate 2000 Urban - Females 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate 2001 Urban - Females 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Illiterate Literate Share in unemp. Elem. Jun. high Share in labor force Voc. j. h. High sch. Unemp. rate Voc. high University Ave. unemp. rate Source: HLFS 1990, 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent and Tunalı (2002), Figure 2c. In 2000 elementary school graduates made up nearly half of the unemployed male sample (as well as the male labour force), but their share has been on the decline during the past decade. In the case of females, high school graduates and elementary school graduates each accounted for about 30 percent of the unemployed in 2000. In the case of males, unemployment rates vary a lot less by education. Differences that were evident in 1990 were practically gone in 2000. The crisis in 2001 appears to have hit illiterate males and literate males who do not have an elementary school diploma more severely (however the share of this group in the labour force is very small). In the case of females, an inverse-U pattern that is clearly visible in 2000 became more pronounced as a result of the crisis. Higher than average unemployment rates observed for junior high and high school graduates may have been responsible for historically low female continuation rates after elementary school. 53 5.5. Unemployment by Region Unemployment rates in 2000 and 2001 broken down by region and location are compared in Figures 5.5.1 (males) and 5.5.2 (females). The horizontal lines capture the countrywide averages in 2000 (solid line) and 2001 (dashed line). Male urban unemployment rates are near or above the national average in the more developed regions (Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean) which attract the majority of the migrants, and in the Southeast, the poorest region in the country. The recession affected males in the urban areas of all the regions, but had a smaller impact in the Black Sea. In the rural areas the impact was confined to the Mediterranean, Central, Eastern and Southeastern regions. The Eastern region was hit worst, the Mediterranean second worst. In the Eastern region, the male unemployment rate went up by 3.5 percentage points in urban areas and registered a three-fold increase (6.2 percentage points) in rural areas. In the Mediterranean region the rates were augmented by 2.9 and 3.2 percentage points respectively. Figure 5.5.1. Male unemployment rate by region in 2000 and 2001 Unemployment rate, Males - Urban 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Marmara Aegean Urban - 2000 Mediter. Central Urban - 2001 Black Sea Urban TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Urban TR - 2001 Unemployment rate, Males - Rural 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Marmara Aegean Rural - 2000 Mediter. Central Rural - 2001 Black Sea Rural TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Rural TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figures 5a-b. In 2000 the regional contours of male unemployment rates in rural areas were similar to those in urban areas. While male residents of rural Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions experienced above average unemployment rates, males residing in the Central, Black Sea and Eastern regions were exposed to below average rates. In the Southeastern region, the rate was near the countrywide average. The impact of the recession, however, was different. Male rural unemployment rates shot up in the Mediterranean, Central, Eastern and Southeastern regions, but declined elsewhere. In the Eastern region, the rural male unemployment rate (9.3 percent) approached the urban rate (9.5 percent). 54 The regional contours of female urban unemployment rates follow the same broad pattern as the male rates. Rates near or above the countrywide average are observed in the more developed Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean regions on the one hand, and the least developed Southeast on the other. As a result of the recession, the unemployment rate more than tripled in the Eastern region (from 4.4 to 14.1 percent), and increased by 4 or more percentage points in the Marmara, Aegean, Central, and Southeastern regions. Surprisingly the rates declined slightly in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions. Figure 5.5.2. Female unemployment rate by region in 2000 and 2001 Unemployment rate, Females - Urban 25 20 15 10 5 0 Marmara Aegean Mediter. Urban - 2000 Central Urban - 2001 Black Sea Urban TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Urban TR - 2001 Unemployment rate, Females - Rural 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Marmara Aegean Mediter. Rural - 2000 Central Rural - 2001 Black Sea Rural TR - 2000 Eastern Southeast Rural TR - 2001 Source: HLFS 2000 and 2001, as reported in *Başlevent (2002), Figures 6a-b. The picture for females residing in rural areas mimicked the broadest pattern identified above: namely, above average rates were observed in the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions in both years. In other ways the picture was quite different. The impact of the recession is evident only in the Central and Eastern regions, both of which had less than one percent unemployment in 2000. Rural female unemployment rates actually dropped in Marmara and Mediterranean regions. The recession appears to have had an equalizing effect on female rural unemployment rates. 5.6. “Hidden” unemployment72 Before analyzing the patterns of “hidden” unemployment, conceptual problems have to be addressed. As commonly defined, unemployment statistics include people who are not employed, and have taken specific steps to obtain a job, and are ready to start working with short notice. It is recognized that this definition falls short of capturing shortfalls or 72 This section is based on *Akçiğit (2002). 55 inadequacies in the use of labour as a productive resource. However, there is no commonly accepted definition for underemployment.73 OECD defines underemployment inclusive of (i) unemployed people, (ii) discouraged workers, and (iii) involuntary part-time workers. The second group is made up of people who gave up search because they think jobs are not available, but would be ready to take up work if available. The third group includes persons who usually work full time but happen to be working part-time for economic reasons beyond their control, and those working part-time due to inability to find a full-time job. The SIS, the data collection agency in charge of collecting labour market statistics in Turkey, uses a different definition. OECD’s definition excludes employed individuals who are actively seeking another job because of insufficient income, or because of a poor match between their occupational skills and what their jobs demands. The underemployment definition of the SIS, on the other hand, includes these underutilized workers as well as parttime workers. However their definition excludes discouraged workers, who also are underutilized. Thus the SIS defines underemployment inclusive of (i) involuntary part-time workers, and employed job seekers who are looking for another job because their current job (ii) provides insufficient income, or (iii) does not utilize their skills properly. Arguably both definitions have their merits, and shortcomings. It is difficult to pick one over the other. We therefore report two different aggregate underemployment rates (number of underemployed people expressed as a percentage of the labour force) based on the biannual (1991-1999) and quarterly (2000-2001) HLFS. Information on discouraged workers was not available prior to 1991. We include October 1990 in the series anyway, to provide a basis for comparison. Figure 5.6.1 shows the progression of the underemployment rate according to the OECD definition. It should be underscored that the OECD definition of underemployment includes the unemployed while the SIS definition does not. We therefore chose to plot the sum of unemployment and the SIS underemployment rates in Figure 5.6.2 to render the two series more comparable. Figure 5.6.1. Underemployment and its components according to the OECD definition Unemployment and Underemployment (OECD) As a percentage of the labor force 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2002 - Period 1 2001 - Period 4 2001 - Period 3 2001 - Period 2 2001 - Period 1 2000 - Period 4 2000 - Period 3 Involuntary part-time workers 2000 - Period 2 1999 - Oct 1999 - April 1998 - Oct 1998 - April 1997 - Oct 1997 - April 1996 - Oct 1996 - April 1995 - Oct 1994 - Oct 1995 - April 1993 - Oct 1994 - April 1992 - Oct 1993 - April Discouraged workers 2000 - Period 1 Unemployed 1992 - April 1991 - Oct 1991 - April 1990 - Oct 0% Source: HLFS 1990-2001, as reported in *Akçiğit (2002), Figure 3. See Kasnakoğlu (2002) for a conceptual analysis of the problem, novel proposals for better measurement, and detailed examination of the evidence from Turkey. 73 56 Note that the difference between the underemployment rate as defined by the OECD, and the unemployment rate is rather small – between 1 and 2 percentage points. Put differently, the OECD definition calls for a small correction. By contrast, the underemployment rate as defined by the SIS is roughly of the same magnitude as the unemployment rate. Thus the SIS definition envisions a substantial adjustment. Neither series outperforms the other as measured by the ability to track the business cycle. It appears the effects of the economic shocks encountered during the 1990s were reflected in the statistics more in the form of under- than un-employment. By contrast the impact of the 2000/1 crisis can be seen directly in the unemployment statistics. It is worth noting that the share of discouraged workers was not particularly high during deep crises (such as those in 1994 and 2000/1). Figure 5.6.2. Unemployment plus underemployment according to the SIS definition Unemployment and Underemployment (SIS) as a Percentage of the Labor Force 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Unemployed Underemployed Source: HLFS 1990-2001, as reported in *Akçiğit (2002), Figure 4. In Figure 5.6.3, the three components of the underemployment statistics collected by the SIS are shown, as a fraction of the employed population. All three components appear to be highly volatile. Individuals who are searching because they are dissatisfied with their earnings on the current job constitute the largest component. Those who are searching because of a skill mismatch constitute the smallest group. Notably, the share of the dissatisfied reached its record level of 0.092 in October 1999 (compared to only 0.053 in October 1998) and remained high during the first and second quarters of 2000. It is a well established fact that the two major earthquakes in 1999 made it extremely difficult for firms to conduct their businesses as usual. The data suggest that their workforce may have had to share the costs of disruption in the form of lower earnings as well as layoffs. Working less than 40 hours because of economic reasons Seeking a job because of not w orking in his/her usual occupation Source: HLFS 1990-2001, as reported in *Akçiğit (2002), Figure 5. Seeking a job because of insuff icient income 2002 - Period 1 2001 - Period 4 2001 - Period 3 2001 - Period 2 2001 - Period 1 2000 - Period 4 2000 - Period 3 2000 - Period 2 2000 - Period 1 1999 - October 1999 - April 1998 - October 1998 - April 1997 - October 1997 - April 1996 - October 1996 - April 1995 - October 1995 - April 1994 - October 1994 - April 1993 - October 1993 - April 1992 - October 1992 - April 1991 - October 1991 - April 1990 - October 1990 - April 1989 - October 1989 - April 1988 - October 57 Figure 5.6.3. Components of underemployment according to the SIS definition 0,12 Underemployed people by reason/Employed people 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 58 6. Vocational Education and Training systems74 6.1 General Status of the Vocational Education and Training System The education system in Turkey and the trends in the educational attainment of the population and the labour force were reviewed in section 4.3. Here we focus on the vocational component, and begin by situating it within the broader system. The student flow between the layers of the national education system has witnessed important developments in the last decade. Until 1998, only 5 years of primary education was compulsory and a significant proportion of those completing compulsory education would discontinue schooling.75 Historically the drop-out rates have been higher for girls. These patterns are responsible for the low level of educational attainment of the population and labour force in general, and women’s even lower average education levels in particular. Following the extension of basic education to 8 years in 1998, enrolment rates increased and the gender gap decreased. In the 2000/01 academic year, gross enrolment rates reached 100 percent, and the number of students undergoing basic education exceeded 10 million. In 2001 students accounted for 21.5 percent of Turkey’s population. Most recent flow data are tabulated in Table 6.1.1. An important point is that although the ratio of girls among those who graduated in 2000 is 40.7 percent, the ratio has increased to 47 percent among new enrolments. This development signals the mitigation of the societal obstacles detrimental to the education of girls. However girls remain far from parity in secondary schools. Table 6.1.1. New Enrolments and Graduates in Basic and Secondary Education New Enrolments (2000-2001 Academic Year) Total Boys Girls (share) (share) Basic Education (8 years) 1,316,194 697,930 618,264 (53.0%) (47.0%) Secondary Education (Total) 757,593 448,251 309,342 (59.1%) (40.8%) General Secondary Education 502,424 281,643 220,781 [share] [66.3%] (56.1%) (43.9%) Vocational and Technical 255,169 166,608 88,561 Secondary Education [share] [33.7%] (65.3%) (34.7%) Source: MoNE, National Education Quantitative Data (2001). Education Type and Level Graduates (1999-2000 Academic Year) Total Boys Girls (share) (share) 820,063 486,421 333,642 (59.3%) (40.7%) 498,241 280,278 217,963 (56.3%) (43.7%) 274,963 146,703 128,260 (53.4%) (46.6%) 223,278 133,575 89,703 (59.8%) (40.2%) Students completing 8 years of basic education have three options for continuing their education: general secondary education, vocational and technical education, and non-formal education. The ratio of basic education graduates who proceed with secondary education increased to over 90 percent in 2001. A key pattern in Table 6.1.1 for our immediate purposes is that the share of students enrolled in vocational and technical secondary schools is 34 percent of new enrolments in secondary education, and 45 percent of the graduates. This radical switch to general education is a continuation of a trend that started in 1998, when the Higher Education Council [Yüksek Öğretim Kurulu (YÖK)] passed regulations that limited vocational high school graduates’ university entrance options. Although development plans drafted in the 1970s and beyond placed the emphasis on vocational training, and envisioned a share of 65 percent for the vocational and technical component of the secondary school system, this target was not reached. The data compiled in 74 75 This section draws liberally from Akpınar and Ercan (2002). See the flowchart in Akpınar and Ercan (2002), p. 236. 59 Table 6.1.2 trace out the recent patterns. The increase in the share of the vocational component between 1991/2 and 1996/7 can be attributed to the expansion of one branch of the system, the Secondary Islamic Education Schools [İmam Hatip Okulları]. In fact, the move to extend basic education from 5 to 8 years was designed, in part, to curtail the demand for religious education. At their peak (during 1996/7), religious schools had an enrolment of over 68 thousand, and accounted for 27.5 percent of the students enrolled in vocational and technical schools. In 2000/1, the numbers were down to 18 thousand, around 7 percent of the total. Table 6.1.2. New Enrolments in Vocational and Technical Secondary Education School Year 1991-1992 Total 581,946 General Secondary Education 334,945 Vocational & Technical Secondary Education 247,001 General % 57.6 V&T % 42.4 1996-1997 666,981 337,533 329,448 50.6 49.4 1997-1998 760,314 442,078 318,236 58.1 41.9 1998-1999 675,652 366,104 309,548 54.2 45.8 1999-2000 706,036 428,361 277,675 60.7 39.3 2000-2001 757,593 502,424 255,169 66.3 33.7 Sources: Akpınar and Ercan (2002), Tables 3.6 and 3.7. Original data were obtained from MoNE: National Education Quantitative Data (related years) and SIS: National Education Statistics – Formal Education (related years). Between 1996/7 and 2000/1, enrolments in vocational and technical schools decreased by 22.5 percent. The drop was considerably higher for girls (28.6 percent) than boys (18.9 percent).76 As of 2001, one out of three students enrolled in secondary schools was receiving vocational education. At the prevailing social and economic conditions, it might be hard to push this ratio higher. Although data from the late 80s and mid 90s indicate that returns to vocational high school education have increased more than the returns to university education (see section 2.2 above), 90 percent of all secondary school graduates take the university placement exam. Regulations which have been enacted by the Higher Education Council in 1998 provide advantages to vocational and technical high school students who want to pursue higher education in their fields of specialization, in schools that provide vocational education. On the other hand, their entry to other fields in the university system has been made increasingly more difficult. Organization of vocational and technical education and training:77 The Ministry of National Education (MoNE) [Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı] has the responsibility for long term planning, curriculum and program development, execution, monitoring and supervision of all types and levels of education and training, apart from higher (i.e. postsecondary) education. The Higher Education Council (HEC) [YÖK], an autonomous body set up by the 1982 Constitution, is responsible for organizing, orienting and accrediting higher education. Post-secondary vocational schools and programs are established and operated by universities or by private not-for-profit foundations, with the approval of the HEC. Other ministries, organizations and institutions may establish formal and non-formal vocational education and training (VE&T) programs at the secondary level to meet their own skilled labour force needs. The most widespread among these are the health vocational high schools connected to the Ministry of Health [Sağlık Bakanlığı]. Others include agriculture vocational 76 77 Akpınar and Ercan, 2002, section 3.3.1. For a more detailed exposition, see Akpınar and Ercan (2002), section 3.3.7. 60 high schools connected to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [Tarım ve Köy İşleri Bakanlığı], finance high schools connected to the Ministry of Finance [Maliye Bakanlığı], deed and land survey high schools, and meteorology vocational high schools connected to the State Ministries [Devlet Bakanlıkları] (which are ministries without portfolios). The programs and regulations of these institutions are prepared in coordination with the MoNE. The MoNE establishes the certification standards and the equivalence of the degrees granted. Four General Directorates (GDs) established under the MoNE are in charge of formal vocational and technical education activities: The GD for Technical Education of Boys, the GD for Technical Education of Girls, the GD for Commerce and Tourism Education, and the GD for Religion Education. Two smaller GDs have more specialized duties: the GD for Special Education, Guidance and Counselling Services (responsible for children with physical and mental disabilities), and the GD for Private Education (responsible for all private schools which provide services in areas related to the Ministry’s activities). Although the general directorates mentioned above are also responsible for the execution of non-formal education services in schools and institutions under their administration, the bulk of such training activities are coordinated by the GD of Apprenticeship and Non-formal Education. At the local level, there is a Provincial National Education Directorate [İl Milli Eğitim Müdürlüğü] connected to the Governor of every province, and a District [İlçe] National Education Directorate connected to the sub-governor [Kaymakam] of every district. These organizations are responsible for the planning, execution and supervision of every type and level of education and training activity within their geographical boundaries apart from higher education. The organizational structure of the local directorates mimics that of the central MoNe organization. The MoNE solicits the input of broader segments of the society through two special councils. The National Education Council [Milli Eğitim Şurası] is the highest advisory council of the Ministry, offering views on all educational matters. The Vocational Education and Training Council [Meslek Eğitimi Kurulu] has similar responsibilities for VE&T. Although the National Education Council’s decisions are advisory, they are usually implemented by the MoNE. The VE&T Council’s decisions used to be advisory, but since 2001, they have to be acted on by the Ministry. The VE&T system in Turkey is remarkable in terms of breadth and regional reach. Although its organizational structure can be traced to the early periods of the Republic, the postsecondary component has been developed in response to recent needs. Unlike some of its counterparts in the EU, the system does not guarantee public or private sector employment for vocational school graduates. Existence of skilled personnel shortages on the one hand, and high unemployment rates for vocational school graduates on the other, suggest that enrolment quotas are not based on careful and timely manpower planning. Funding of education:78 Practically speaking, all public spending on education is met from the General Budget.79 The three main recipients are the MoNE, the HEC, and the Loans and Dormitories Organization 78 For additional information, see Akpınar and Ercan (2002), section 3.3.9. In the 1980s new laws and government decrees were enacted to establish extra-budgetary funds for the purposes of providing additional resources for education. In 2000 these funds amounted to around 20 percent of the total MoNE budget. These funds have recently been 79 61 for Higher Education [Kredi ve Yurtlar Kurumu (YURTKUR)]. The share of education in the consolidated budget is given in Table 6.1.3 for the ten year period 1992-2001. The share of education in the consolidated budget was near 20 percent in 1992, and dropped to approximately 10 percent in 2000. In 2001, there was a slight increase. Nonetheless the trend is clearly downward, suggesting a shift in the priorities of the government to the detriment of education. Table 6.1.3. Share of spending on education in the Consolidated Budget, and share of Consolidated Budget in GNP, 1992-2001 (percentage) Year MoNE YÖK YURTKUR TOTAL 1992 14.56 4.37 0.51 19.44 1993 14.35 4.15 0.62 19.13 1994 11.36 3.77 0.48 15.62 1995 10.17 3.44 0.43 14.05 1996 7.21 2.58 0.41 10.21 1997 8.05 3.18 0.48 11.71 1998 8.40 2.85 0.40 11.66 1999 7.85 2.44 0.47 10.71 2000 7.13 2.22 0.42 9.78 2001 8.37 2.82 0.49 11.69 Source: MoNE, National Education in 2001. Share of Consolidated Budget in GNP 18.90 20.06 21.26 17.08 23.82 21.64 27.90 34.44 37.58 31.52 As seen in the last column of the table, during this period there was an upward trend in the share of the consolidated budget in the GNP. Table 6.1.4 shows the share of resources for education as a fraction of the GNP for the same ten year period. There was a sharp drop after the 1994 crisis. But the share increased in 1998, and returned to the 1992 level by 1999. Thus, viewed as a share of the GNP, spending on education has been stationary. Turning to the individual components, we see that in 2001 the share of MoNE was 2.64 percent, slightly lower than its share in 1992. The share of YÖK was 0.88 percent, slightly above its share in 1992 (0.84 percent), while the share of YURTKUR was 0.16 percent, considerably higher than its share back in 1992 (0.10 percent). Table 6.1.4. Share of spending on education in GNP, 1992-2001 (percentage) Year MoNE YÖK YURTKUR TOTAL 1992 2.75 0.83 0.10 3.67 1993 2.88 0.83 0.12 3.84 1994 2.41 0.80 0.10 3.32 1995 1.73 0.59 0.07 2.40 1996 1.71 0.61 0.10 2.43 1997 1.74 0.69 0.10 2.54 1998 2.34 0.80 0.11 3.25 1999 2.70 0.84 0.14 3.69 2000 2.70 0.84 0.16 3.68 2001 2.64 0.88 0.16 3.68 Source: MoNE, National Education in 2001. absorbed into the general budget as part of the ongoing effort towards stricter budgetary discipline and transparency. 62 In Table 6.1.5, public expenditures on education and the number of students in the school year 1998-1999 are given, broken down by the level of education. In terms of student numbers, the main burden on the system comes from basic education. For every student in the tertiary tier (higher education), there are two in the secondary, and about 10 in the primary tier (basic education). Expenditure per student has the reverse ordering. The average cost of a student in the higher education component of the system was US$1,649, 2.4 times more than a student in the secondary tier, and 4.2 times more than a student in the primary tier. Table 6.1.5. Public spending on education in the school year 1998-1999, by level Education Level Public Spending (billion TL) Number of Students Basic Education 1,570,424 9,540,006 164.6 392 568,131 1,954,430 290.7 692 Secondary Education Cost per Student million TL US$ Higher Education* 663,400 972,180 682.3 1,649 Source: Ministry of Finance, MoNE 1999 Definite Account; MoNE: National Education Quantitative Data, 1998-1999; ÖSYM: Higher Education Statistics, 1998-1999. *Consolidated Budget Figures, excluding Open Education. Funding of vocational education: For the purposes of evaluating the emphasis placed on VE&T, it is useful to compare the public expenditures on general secondary education, and formal and non-formal vocational education. Ten year evolution of the shares of the three components in total resources allocated to the secondary school system is shown in Table 6.1.6. Note the decline in the shares of all three components in the total MoNE budget starting with 1998, the year basic education was extended from 5 to 8 years. This has to the with the fact that middle school (grades 6-8) used to be part of the secondary school system prior to the reform.80 What matters for our purposes is the ordering between the relative shares. The patterns are similar whether we examine the relative shares in GNP, or in the MoNE budget. While general and formal vocational education components are the same in terms of order of magnitude, nonformal education has less than one-fourth of the resources directed to formal VE&T. In 1991 and 1992, the share of vocational and technical education was smaller than general secondary education. Recall from Table 6.1.2 that the enrolment shares during the 19911992 school year was 57.6 vs. 42.2 percent, in favour of general education. Starting with 1993, and up until 2000, the resources allocated to VE&T exceeded those allocated to general secondary education. Recall from Table 6.1.2 that the general and vocational components had about the same number of students in 1996-1997, but vocational schools lost their appeal following the reforms in 1998. Evidently as its student base was being depleted rapidly, vocational system’s relative budget shares did not decline at the same rate. 80 As part of the basic education reform, the government enacted an incremental “sin” tax (on the sale of tobacco, alcohol, lottery tickets, etc.) that will be in force until 2010. The proceeds from this tax are collected in a special fund (called Contribution to Education Share [Eğitime Katkı Payı]), and transferred to the MoNE budget to be spent solely on basic education. This reduces the secondary education’s share. Starting in 2002, some of the proceeds were to be spent for vocational education. Recent figures were not available at the time of writing of this report. 63 Table 6.1.6. Resource allocation to General, and Vocational & Technical Education, 1991-2000 (share in GNP and MoNE Budget, percent) General Secondary Vocational & Technical Education Secondary Education Year Share in Share in MoNE Share in Share in MoNE GNP Budget GNP Budget 1991 0.38 13.82 0.35 12.71 1992 0.43 13.76 0.41 13.10 1993 0.42 13.37 0.43 13.72 1994 0.32 13.68 0.33 14.46 1995 0.25 12.96 0.27 13.82 1996 0.28 13.48 0.31 14.87 1997 0.30 12.95 0.33 14.31 1998 0.31 11.54 0.35 12.79 1999 0.34 10.94 0.37 11.88 2000 0.32 11.38 0.32 11.61 Source: Ministry of Finance: MoNE, 1991-2000 Definite Accounts. Apprenticeship and Non-Formal Education Share in Share in MoNE GNP Budget 0.10 3.68 0.14 4.55 0.15 4.82 0.10 4.17 0.07 3.39 0.07 3.44 0.07 2.92 0.06 2.36 0.07 2.31 0.07 2.41 Budget shares of the key General Directorates (GD) that function under the MoNE are given in Table 6.1.7. The sharp drops from 1997 to 1998 have to do with the above mentioned reform of basic education. The GD branch least affected by the changes is the GD for Commerce and Tourism Education. The most affected ones are the GDs for Religion Education and Apprenticeship and Non-Formal Education. Table 6.1.7. Resource allocation to key Vocational and Technical Education General Directorates, 1995-2000 (share in the MoNE Budget, percent) Year Technical Technical Commerce Religion Apprenticeship Education Education & Tourism Education & Non-Formal of Boys of Girls Education Education 1995 5.80 2.55 2.02 3.45 3.39 1996 6.08 2.72 2.37 3.70 3.44 1997 5.71 2.51 2.35 3.73 2.92 1998 5.14 2.32 1.94 3.39 2.36 1999 4.91 2.15 1.90 2.93 2.31 2000 5.14 2.06 2.01 2.40 2.41 Source: Ministry of Finance: MoNE, 1995-2000 Definite Accounts. TOTAL first three DGs 10.38 11.17 10.58 9.41 8.95 9.20 GENERAL TOTAL 17.21 18.31 17.23 15.15 14.19 14.01 As shown in Table 6.1.5, average spending per student was US$ 692 during the school year 1998-1999. That year the expense incurred per student was US$ 591 in general secondary education and US$ 824 in VE&T. That is, compared to a student enrolled in general education, it cost 1.4 times as much to educate a student enrolled in VE&T. Back in 19911992 the figures were US$ 772 and US$ 955, respectively. The multiplier at the time was 1.2. Thus while expenditures per student decreased in US$ terms across the board, the reduction was significantly less for students enrolled in VE&T programs. As we pointed out in section 2.2, between 1988 and 1994 the returns to schooling increased by a larger margin for vocational school graduates than for general high school graduates (see Table 2.2.1). We do not know if these patterns remained valid beyond 1994. Assuming they did, one could argue that the differences in cost per student are commensurate with the differences in the private returns to education. On the other hand, the patterns of change in unemployment rates reviewed in section 5.4 yield a different picture. In 1990, urban unemployment rates were considerably higher for graduates of general high schools compared to vocational high schools. By 2000, the rates were equalized. That is, high school graduates had the same risk of being unemployed regardless of the differences in average cost of skill acquisition. The point of this exercise is to underscore the importance of addressing the question of allocative efficiency of investments in education. 64 Main regulatory/legal texts:81 The main law that regulates education is the National Education Basic Law (no. 1739) which was enacted in 1973 and amended in 1983 and 1997. Other laws and government decrees (which have the force of law) cannot have any provisions contrary to Law no. 1739, which subsumes vocational and technical education under secondary education. Of the laws and decrees that regulate vocational and technical education, three are worth mentioning. Formal, apprenticeship and non-formal vocational and technical training are regulated under the Apprenticeship and Vocational Education Law (no. 3308) enacted in 1986 and amended in 1997 and 2001.82 Issues related to the establishment, operation and supervision of private vocational and technical education institutions are regulated by the Private Education Law (no. 625) enacted in 1965. This Law was amended in 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1988. In accordance with Unemployment Insurance Law (no. 4477), Regulation on Occupational Development of Those Receiving Unemployment Benefits was issued on 23 December 2000. This regulation is designed to ease job placement or self employment of those collecting UI benefits by training them in vocations that are in demand. The frequency with which concerns about VE&T have been addressed by legislation gives the impression that governments have been quick to enlist to the cause. Closer examination reveals that governments have been less than sincere in their implementation of the legislation. A case in point is the mandatory extra-budgetary (Apprenticeship, Vocational and Technical Education Development and Promotion) fund, which was established with Law no. 3308 back in 1986. Its purpose was to promote vocational and technical education through formal channels, as well as through apprenticeships and non-formal education, with the ultimate objective of augmenting the number and quality of trained labour force. Resource (tax) providers were business enterprises and professional organizations to which trainees belonged. Its revenues in 1987 were fully spent for the intended purpose. Of the amount actually spent on vocational education, about 40-45 percent went to procurement of machinery, and 20-25 percent was spent to supplement the wages of the vocational course instructors. By 2000, however, less than 5 percent of the fund’s revenues were being used as stipulated, while the rest was reallocated by the government as a general budget item. The mandatory allocation was abolished during the economic reforms in 2001, at which time the balance in the fund was transferred to the general budget. 6.2 Initial Vocational Education83 Secondary education institutions devoted to formal vocational and technical education are grouped under two main categories: Vocational High Schools (VHS) and Technical High Schools (THS). In addition to these specialized schools, there are Comprehensive High Schools which implement general, as well as vocational and technical curricula. All told, hands-on education directed to more than 130 occupations is given at the secondary level. VHSs are the workhorses of the system. All departments of VHSs are open to basic education graduates. THSs pick their students from among those who have successfully completed their first year at VHSs. Like general high schools, some vocational and technical high schools provide foreign language instruction. These are dubbed Anatolian VHSs and THSs (following the naming convention applicable to general high schools). Anatolian High Schools have a good reputation, and get to choose their students by a nationwide exam. In theory students have equal access to all components of the secondary school system. 81 See Akpınar and Ercan (2002), section 3.3.4 for a detailed discussion. In 2001 its name was shortened to Vocational Education Law. 83 We were unable to obtain systematic information on drop outs. 82 65 However, vocational and technical schools have traditionally drawn their students from among the less privileged. As demand for higher education grew, VHSs have tried to prepare their students for higher education and assist them in acquiring an occupation at the same time. This has resulted in their not sufficiently executing either one of their functions. Up until 1997, at least in principle, the graduates of general, vocational, and technical high schools had equal access to higher education. By altering the regulations that govern entry to universities, the 1998 reform sought to refocus vocational and technical high schools on their skill-acquisition functions. VHSs have different names according to their program type and administrative structure. Industrial VHSs generally implement programs that give priority to industrial production. In the VHS for Girls, the emphasis is on services. Commerce VHSs place emphasis on programs related to trade and service sectors. Religious VHSs incorporate the teachings of Koran and Islamic scholars into their education programs. In Health VHSs connected to the Ministry of Health, skilled personnel for the health sector are trained. Agricultural VHSs operate under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and train the work force for agriculture extension programs. All VHSs are co-educational. The duration of a regular VHS is 3 years. Anatolian VHSs teach foreign language (typically English) preparatory classes in the first year. This is followed by 3 years of vocational education. THSs typically take 4 years to complete. These schools follow a curriculum which mimics the one implemented in the science branch of general high schools alongside their vocational curriculum. Thus, the students’ capacity to pursue higher education is augmented. Comprehensive high schools located in small residential areas offer general, vocational and technical secondary education programs under one administration. These schools were established in 1992 in an attempt to broaden the education opportunities available in communities that are too small to have separate public school systems. Legislation passed in 2001 is aimed at broadening the reach further. It instructs the MoNE to give priority to small residential communities in establishing vocational and technical training centres that offer secondary education diploma and certificate programs. Supply of training opportunities: The time set aside for skills training differs depending on fields of specialization and school types. The time allocated for practical training in the last year of vocational high schools is generally 24 hours per week. Students participating in this type of training receive two days theoretical training and three days practical training at enterprises. Theoretical training which is at least 12 hours a week may be given by schools, or the training units of enterprises. New standards have been established in 2001 for the creation of practical training opportunities. Small enterprises with less than 20 employees may provide skills training to students of VHSs if they so desire. Larger enterprises with 20 or more employees, that operate in the provincial capitals and rely on occupations covered under Law no. 3308, have to provide practical training to students of VHSs. The number of trainees they are obliged to accommodate is not less than 5 percent, and not more than 10 percent of the total workforce of the enterprise. Furthermore, enterprises with more than 200 employees have to establish a unit for practical training and appoint training personnel to the unit. Certification: A diploma is given to those who successfully complete secondary vocational and technical education schools. Students who have received a diploma from a three year vocational and technical education institution may either attend mastership courses organized by the MoNE 66 or directly take the Mastership Examination. Those who are successful in this examination receive a “Mastership Certificate.” Graduates of four year vocational and technical school or institution are also given a “Certificate to Open a Workplace” alongside their diplomas. This certificate is equivalent to a mastership certificate in terms of the rights and responsibilities it endows. Transition to employment: Although vocational school education is expected to help the graduates ease their way into the labour market, statistics reveal that a significant majority continues with higher education. According to HLFS 2001, of the 22.3 million strong work force, approximately 1.5 million (6.9 percent) were vocational and technical high school graduates. Yet in year 2000 alone, a total of 220 thousand students graduated from secondary vocational and technical education schools. This amounts to one potential labour market entrant for every 7 employed vocational or technical high school graduate. Employment would have had to expand by 1 percent in one year just to absorb all the vocational and technical school graduates. In 2001 while the nationwide unemployment rate was 8.5 percent, it reached 13.3 percent among vocational and technical high school graduates, exceeding that for general high school graduates. As we saw in section 5.3, youth unemployment rates are quite a bit higher. Males who do not enrol in a higher education program are enlisted for compulsory military service at age 20. Females do not have an alternative. Consequently the situation is worse for females. Although those in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups have roughly the same unemployment rates (see Table 5.3.1), the share of 15-19 year olds among the unemployed has been going down since 1997 (see Table 5.3.2). This suggests that high unemployment rates for vocational high school graduates is discouraging participation, and encouraging further investments in education. But for many individuals, this could simply be postponement of unemployment. The present situation presents a challenge for labour market policy: Turkey will have to train its labour force so that it can improve productivity, but currently it is unable to provide jobs for a large segment of those who are trained. 6.3 Continuous Training and Adult Education84 Continuous (vocational and technical) training and adult education will be examined under two subheadings, apprenticeship training and non-formal training. Although there is an upper age limit of 19 to enter formal apprenticeship training (per the amendment made to Law no. in 2001), we chose to examine it under adult education because it is fundamentally different from formal schooling. 6.3.1 Apprenticeship training Apprenticeship training first took its place in the national education system with Law (no. 2089) enacted in 1977. Subsequently, the Apprenticeship and Vocational Education Law (no. 3308) was enacted to achieve integration of apprenticeship, formal and non-formal vocational and technical education under a unified system. MoNE is responsible for conducting VE&T activities in 110 occupations (as of March 2003) covered by Law no. 3308. The Law charges professional organizations with the responsibility of carrying out similar activities in occupations outside the list. The Turkish Confederation of Trades and Craftsmen [Türkiye Esnaf ve Sanatkarlar Konfederasyonu (TESK)], which has the widest organizational network in the country, takes plays a key role in non-governmental VE&T. Apprenticeship training involves the theoretical and practical training of youths who work at enterprises in order to learn a vocation after completing compulsory education. They must be 84 This section has been condensed from Akpınar and Ercan (2002), section 3.3.3. 67 at least 14 years old. Those under the age of 19 cannot be employed at a workplace without an apprenticeship agreement between the worker and the employer. Between 1997 and 2001, 620 thousand young people received training in courses organized by the MoNE. In 2001, there were about 250,000 students in the entire VE&T system, roughly half of whom were in apprenticeship training. From Apprentice to Master: Apprenticeship training involves four stages: Candidate Apprenticeship, Apprenticeship, Journeymanship, Mastership. Candidates are those who have completed their compulsory basic education but who are under the age of 14. Candidate apprentices and apprentices have student status and have all the rights given to students. They are not included in the number of personnel working at a workplace. The duration of apprenticeship training varies between 2 and 4 years, depending on the profession, and proceeds without any breaks. Apprenticeship training starts with a probation period. This period is between one month and three months, depending on the characteristics of the profession. Wages have to be paid during this time. Employers are responsible for paying at least 30 percent of the appropriate minimum wage to candidate apprentices and apprentices with whom they have signed a contract.85 Candidate apprentices and apprentices are insured against work accidents, illnesses related to the profession, and other illness. The insurance premiums are paid by the State. Those completing the apprenticeship training period may take the Journeymanship Examination, which is based on both theoretical and practical knowledge. Those who are successful earn a “Journeymanship Certificate.” Journeyman training is undertaken by those who have obtained journeyman status, to graduate to master level. This training is organized around a three year curriculum, and is given at Vocational Training Centers (VTCs) outside working hours. Journeymen who have completed their training earn the right to take the Mastership Examination. Journeymen who have not attended this training may also take this examination upon providing proof that they have worked for at least five years in their profession. As pointed out in the previous section, the diploma obtained from a vocational or technical school entitles the bearer to take the Mastership Examination. Successful candidates earn a “Mastership Certificate.” VTCs also offer pedagogy courses which are designed to give the Mastership Certificate holders the competency to undertake the training responsibilities of candidate apprentices and apprentices. The total duration of these Master Trainer courses is 40 hours. Organizations involved in Apprenticeship training: Organizations involved in the theoretical and practical training of candidate apprentices and apprentice students are listed below. Enterprises: The responsibility for the practical training of candidate apprentices and apprentice students falls on enterprises. Those enterprises which employ candidate apprentices or apprentice students are legally required to have a Master Trainer, even if they have only one trainee. Moreover, if the enterprise is training ten or more apprentices (or apprentice students), then it will have to establish a Training Unit for this purpose. Master Trainers (or teaching personnel) who have mastership certificates and have received work pedagogy training are appointed to these units. 85 The minimum wage for those less than 16 years of age is about 85 percent of the minimum wage for older workers. 68 Vocational Training Centres (VTCs): The theoretical training and the part of practical training left incomplete at workplaces of candidate apprentices and apprentices is handled by VCTs connected to the GD of Apprenticeship and Non-Formal Education. Supra Training Centres (STCs) [İşletmelerüstü Eğitim Merkezleri]: These centres are established and run by the Turkish Confederation of Trades and Craftsmen (TESK). Their responsibilities are the same as STCs. 6.3.2 Non-formal education and training: The National Education Basic Law (no. 1739) defines non-formal education and training (NFE&T) as the collection of education, training, production, guidance and implementation activities offered throughout one’s working life. Those who have not completed formal VE&T are the main target. Structure and organization of the Non-formal Education and Training system: Law no. 1739 states that non-formal education and training (NFE&T) will be organized in an integrated way to complement formal education, so that the qualities acquired through formal education can be imparted using different means. However the very nature of the activities subsumed under it, make it difficult to identify the structure and organisation of the “NFE&T system.” In what follows we describe the main components of what essentially is an amorphous system. Among State agencies, the recently established Employment Organisation (İŞKUR) is charged with the responsibility of synchronizing NFE&T activities with labour market policies. İŞKUR fulfils its duties in cooperation with private and public organizations and institutions.86 Through its local organizations, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs provides training on agriculture and home economics to villagers. The broader NFE&T needs of the public are addressed by the appropriate GD of the MoNE. Among the primary targets of the programs offered under the auspices of the MoNE are individuals who have dropped out of compulsory basic education, and illiterate women in the 14-44 age bracket. Priority groups are identified in accordance with program topics and care is taken to implement training in harmony with formal education. Flexibility is sought with respect to duration, place and level. Programs for students or workers organized outside school or work hours constitute the majority of the activities. Although NFE&T services are provided by many private and non-profit organizations, many are limited to in-service training activities designed to address the needs of their own personnel or members. Almost all professional organizations (many of which are identified by trade or craft affiliation) provide NFE&T activities geared to respond to the specific needs of their members. Some professional organizations extend services to potential members and non-members. The Vocational and Technical Education Research and Development Centre (METARGEM), was established in 1986 for the purpose of undertaking planning, research, development and production services required by MoNE. The Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Support Administration Directorate (KOSGEB), an autonomous entity related to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, approaches the problem from the entrepreneurial angle. KOSGEB was established in 1990 to facilitate the speedy adaptation of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to technological developments, to enhance their competitiveness, and to increase their contribution to the economy. Towards this end KOSGEB organizes class room and laboratory based courses, and short-term on-the86 Detailed information on İŞKUR and its activities is given in sections 7.1, 8.2 and 8.3. 69 job training on technical, administrative, financial, and regulatory topics. It targets individuals who are about to establish, or who have recently established their own firms. Its technology development centres incubate and encourage the formation of high value added, technology oriented SMEs. Universities also play a role in the delivery of NFE&T programs, usually in cooperation with other public and private organizations and institutions. By law Municipalities [Belediyeler] are charged with the responsibility of organizing courses aimed at assisting individuals in acquiring a profession and finding employment. They often fulfil their obligations in cooperation with various organizations attached to the MoNE or universities. A number of NGOs offer NFE&T activities. Some of the most visible among these are foundations established by affiliates of TİSK, the Turkish Confederation of Employer Associations, with the specific aim of supplying NFE&T. MESS Training Foundation (MEV) established by the Turkish Employers’ Association of Metal Industries (MESS), the Turkish Textile Foundation established by the Turkish Textile Employers’ Association (TÜTSİS), and the Turkish Construction and Installation Workers’ Training Foundation (İNİŞEV) established by the Turkish Employers’ Association of Construction Industries are some of these foundations. The enhanced visibility of private training institutions in recent years attests to the increased demand for NFE&T. Governmental NFE&T institutions: A list of major governmental institutions dedicated to the provision of NFE&T services follows. Unless specified otherwise, these are attached to the MoNE. Note that there is no centralized testing-assessment and certification in non-formal education as there is in apprenticeship training. Typically a test is given by the instructor at the end of each course. There are mid-term tests in courses of long duration. A “Successful Completion Certificate” is given to those who are successful in these tests. Those who are not successful receive a “Course Participation Certificate.” Practical Trade Schools for Girls: [Pratik Kız Sanat Okulları] These are aimed at young girls as well as women who may or not may not have completed formal education, to help them acquire a profession in line with their interests. Training courses and programs of various lengths and levels are offered on home and family management knowledge and skills. These schools operate under VHSs for Girls, or independently. Domestic Science Schools: [Olgunlaşma Enstitüleri] These schools also target young girls and women who may or may not have completed formal education, but focus on activities that are not necessarily vocational in nature (such as hobbies and crafts) but may be imparting labour market skills nevertheless. A good example is carpet weaving. Industrial Practical Crafts Schools: [Endüstri Pratik Sanat Okulları] These are non-formal education institutions that assist those who could not continue their education (after completing basic education) in gaining the habits and attitudes necessary to function in a number of occupational fields. In general they operate under Industrial VHSs. Technical Training Centres for Adults: [Yetişkinler Teknik Eğitim Merkezleri] These train primary school graduates who want to improve their knowledge and skills in new technologies in the industrial field. Hotel and Tourism Training Centres for Adults: [Yetişkinler Otelcilik ve Turizm Eğitim Merkezleri (YOTEM)] These have been organized as part of Anatolian Hotel and Tourism Vocational High Schools which train the mid level work force in the tourism sector. 70 Tourism Training Centres: [Turizm Eğitim Merkezleri (TUREM)] Operated by the Ministry of Tourism, these centres offer basic training courses to supply intermediate level personnel for the sector since 1967. Annual enrolment has varied between 1000 and 1300, to yield a total of 16,860 trainees as of early 2003. The centres are located in parts of the country that attract major tourist flows. Public Training Centres: [Halk Eğitim Merkezleri] These are found all around the country, in provinces, districts, sub-districts, even villages. They offer courses on society and culture, as well as vocational and general knowledge courses. Given their community orientation, their educational and training activities can be delivered anywhere — in prisons, poor areas, public and private institutions in districts, sub-districts and school rooms of villages. Handicrafts Training Centres: [El Sanatları Eğitim Merkezleri] These operate nationwide under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Their education and training services are complemented by free boarding and are provided to women and men in the 14-20 age group who have at least a primary school diploma. The enrolment is about 1000 trainees per year. Continuous Training Centres: [Sürekli Eğitim Merkezleri] These are institutions established under universities to provide NFE&T services for different target groups. Supra Training Centres: [İşletmeler Üstü Eğitim Merkezleri] These have been established by TESK (see the previous section). They provide remedial practical training for apprentices as well as NFE&T activities geared towards the needs of craftsmen, and small and medium enterprises. Table 6.3.1, based on data published by MoNE, has enrolment statistics for the year 2000 for a subset of the public institutions identified above, as well as the private sector. This provides a lower bound for the size of the NFE&T system. Nearly 3 million individuals were engaged in non-formal education and training in these institutions. The private sector accounted for 61.6 percent of the total. The data in Table 6.3.1 combine general and vocational non-formal education. Institutions that prepare students for the Central Entrance Exam for higher education [Dershaneler] concentrate on general rather than vocational education. The fact that half-a-million candidates take remedial education and test preparation courses in private institutions, in order to gain access to publicly funded higher education, is one of the ironies of Turkey’s formal education system. Around this time close to two million students were enrolled in secondary schools while close to one million were in higher education (see Table 6.1.5). Although they are somewhat dated, the SIS data in Table 6.3.2 provide a better sense of the size and composition of the vocational component of the system. According to these data, half-a-million individuals completed training over the school year 1997-1998 while 570 thousand were still enrolled.87 At this time there were around 800 thousand students in the formal vocational education system.88 A noteworthy point is the fact that women accounted for 75 percent of those who completed their training. Another point is that 13 percent of those who started dropped out. 87 Courses such as music courses, art courses, driving courses, foreign language courses, which need not be constitute vocational training, are included in private courses. Driving courses make up a large portion of these. 88 We took the trends in Table 6.1.2 into account, and assumed that 40 percent of the students in the secondary school system were in V&TE. We assumed the stock in 1997-1998 was the same as that in 1998-1999, and took the figure of 1.9 million from Table 6.1.5 as our base. 71 Table 6.3.1. Non-Formal Education Institutions Connected to MoNE (Year 2000) Number of Institutions Number of Participants Number of Teachers Practical Trade Schools for Girls 439 94,462 339 Domestic Science Schools 12 2,606 311 Technical Training Centres for Adults 12 160 * Public Training Centres 920 1,018,359 5430 Private Training Institutions 192 5,297 957 ** 14,318 ** 1,575 1,135,202 7,037 3,181 1,295,995 21,145 Type of Institution/Centre Public Vocational Courses (According to Law 3308) Public Total Private Courses Institutional preparation for Central Entrance Exam to higher education [Dershaneler]*** 1,864 523,244 18,175 Private Total 5,045 1,819,239 39,320 Total (Public+Private) Source: MoNE, Quantitative Data, 2000 6,620 2,954,441 46,357 Notes: Apprenticeship training institutions not included. * Teachers of vocational high schools that these centers are connected to work in these centers. ** The number of institutions and teachers could not be given as these are organized by vocational and technical schools and institutions. *** Courses for entrance examination preparation to enroll at different levels of formal education. Table 6.3.2. Vocational Education Institutions Connected to the MoNE (1997-1998) Started Continuing Institutions Completed Total Male Female Practical Trade Schools for Girls 82,294 69,957 65,032 0 65,032 Domestic Science Schools 1,735 1,401 1,174 0 1,174 141 106 98 97 1 438,810 387,245 343,669 75,745 267,924 8,369 7,841 7,369 4,963 2,408 Private Courses 124,455 106,805 83,664 40,565 43,099 Total 655,820 573,371 501,006 121,370 379,636 Technical Training Centres for Adults Public Training Centres Vocational Courses (According to Law 3308) Source: SIS, National Education Statistics, Non-Formal Education (1997-1998). The private sector accounts for a small share of the totals in Table 6.3.2. Based on information obtained from All Private Training Institutions Employers Union [Tüm Özel Eğitim Kurumları İşveren Sendikası (TEKİŞ)], a member of TİSK, in 2000 there were 1019 private training institutions providing vocational and technical education with a combined 72 student capacity of 1,740,875. These institutions operate in all the provinces. According to TİSK officials, only 10 percent of the capacity is used and the rest remains idle. 6.4 Training for the Unemployed The State agency which is charged with the responsibility of providing training to the unemployed is the Employment Organization (İŞKUR). While some of these programs have dedicated funding and consequently target specific groups (such as the insured unemployed, workers displaced by privatization, convicts, etc.), others are open to anyone who registers with the organization. Since the organisational structure and duties of İŞKUR are discussed in detail below (see sections 7.1, 8.2 and 8.3), we refrain from elaboration at this point. 73 7. Labour Market Institutions 7.1 Government Bodies89 The bureaucracy that is responsible for the domains of work and workers is organized under the Ministry of Labour and Social Security [Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı] (MLSS/ÇSGB). In a comprehensive organizational reform undertaken in 2000, three State agencies were brought together under a new central body, the Social Security Organization [Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu] (SSO/SGK). Two of these were existing institutions in charge of social security: the Social Insurance Organization [Sosyal Sigortalar Kurumu] (SIO/SSK) for wage and salary earners and Bağ-Kur for the self-employed, including those in agriculture.90 The third was the Turkish Employment Agency [Türkiye İş Kurumu] (İŞKUR). It replaced the existing Employment Brokerage Agency [İş ve İşçi Bulma Kurumu] (İİBK), whose mandate and organizational structure were considered inadequate for responding to the changed conditions in the labour market.91 İŞKUR’s broadened responsibilities include protecting employment and helping to counter unemployment by engaging in training programs, managing the newly established unemployment insurance, conducting studies on job analysis and occupational classifications, and offering job and career counselling services. Active labour market measures implemented by İŞKUR are discussed in some detail in section 8.2. The three institutions connected to the SSO are administratively and financially independent. They are headquartered in Ankara and have regional offices around the country. SSK is the biggest of the three, with over 65 thousand personnel. İŞKUR is the smallest, with less than 2000. The SSO is presently an umbrella organization, whose main task is to coordinate the social security organizations. As part of the reorganization, a new Financing and Actuarial Department was established under the SSK. This department is responsible for managing SSK’s assets and making projections based on demographic and actuarial principles. Departments engaged in actuarial studies have also been organized at the MLSS itself, at Bağ-Kur, and at İŞKUR (the Unemployment Insurance Department). Although no significant additional restructuring is expected in the short run, unification of the separate social security organizations is on the agenda. In addition to the MLSS, at least four other ministries undertake activities which directly or indirectly influence labour market outcomes for workers. As discussed at length in chapter 6, the Ministry of National Education is in charge of vocational education and training. Two other ministries oversee training functions which overlap with the broader mission of İŞKUR. 89 Detailed information on the agencies covered under this heading may be found on their web sites: [http://]www.calisma.gov.tr (Ministry of Labour and Social Security), www.ssk.gov.tr (Social Insurance Organization), www.bagkur.gov.tr (Bağ-Kur), www.emeklisandigi.gov.tr (social security organization for government white-collar employees), www.iskur.gov.tr (Turkish Employment Organization), www.kosgeb.com (SME development centre), and www.turizm.gov.tr (Ministry of Tourism). 90 Additional relevant information on these, and the Pension Fund [Emekli Sandığı], which administers the retirement fund and social security services for white-collar employees in the public sector and military personnel, has been provided in section 2.3. 91 Although it has been functioning as envisioned, the (de jure) formation of İŞKUR was finally realized on June 24, 2003, with the passage of Law no. 4904 in the Parliament. It will become law upon approval by the President and publication in the Official Gazette [Resmi Gazete]. 74 The small and medium size enterprise development centre KOSGEB, an autonomous agency established under the Ministry of Industry and Trade [Sanayi ve Ticaret Bakanlığı], is responsible for training activities directed to its constituency (see section 6.2.2). Tourismtraining centres TUREM, attached to the Ministry of Tourism [Turizm Bakanlığı], train the young for mid-level positions in the tourism sector. The Ministry of Health [Sağlık Bakanlığı] has responsibility for overseeing the medical personnel and service quality in the hospitals operated by SSK. Finally, State institutions such as the SPO, HEC, the State Personnel Office [Devlet Personel Başkanlığı], and the General Directorate of the Status and Problems of Women [Kadın Statütüsü ve Sorunları Genel Müdürlüğü] also exert influence on labour market outcomes through their planning, advisory and regulatory functions. 7.2 Labour Market Regulations The main laws and statutory decrees that regulate the labour market and a summary of their contents are listed in chronological order in Table 7.2.1. The Ministry of Labour was formed in 1945. In 1974, the Ministry of Social Security was founded and in 1983, it was merged with the Ministry of Labour. In what follows we highlight the key changes in the legal and regulatory framework in an attempt to underscore the pace of progress. Some of the individual pieces of legislation are discussed in further detail in the appropriate sections of the report. The first law on the labour market is dated 1924. It instituted a weekend vacation on Fridays (changed to Sundays in 1935). Turkey became a member of the ILO in 1932. The first comprehensive work law was enacted in 1936. This had provisions for the establishment of a social security system, which was achieved in piecemeal fashion (Emekli Sandığı was founded in 1950, SSK in 1965, and Bağ-Kur in 1971). The first law on labour unions was enacted in 1947. In 1963, union activities were broadened, bargaining over pay, and strike and lockout regulations were legislated. This set the stage for the ascendancy of the labour movement. 92 Work Law (no. 1475) was legislated in 1971 as a reaction to the growing strength of the militant wing of the labour movement. Law no. 1475 and Law no. 657 which pertains to civil servants, together constitute the ‘individual’ branch of labour legislation, in that they deal with the relation between the worker and the employer as individual parties in a contractual context. There have been several patchwork attempts to modify Work Law no. 1475, notably in 1989 and in 2002. A new Job Security Law (no. 4773) was passed shortly before the general elections and became effective in March 2003. A new comprehensive Work Law (no. 4857) was enacted in June 2003. The current legislation on collective bargaining (Unions Law no. 2821), which regulates employee-employer relations conducted through intermediation efforts of unions, was passed in the post-coup environment of 1983. It has been amended several times (most recently in 1995). Recent amendments removed some of the restrictions on union activity. White-collar unions in the public sector were allowed in 1965, but banned in 1971. They re-emerged in 1990.93 92 A short history of unionization (1946-1996) and detailed information on unions active as of 1996 may be found in Aslan et al. (1998). (A revised version is available on the web site of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation: http://www.fes.de/fulltext/bueros/istanbul/00253toc.htm.) For a detailed history, see Koç (1997, 1998). 93 For a history of white-collar unions, see http://www.kesk.org.tr, the web page of KESK, the Confederation of Public Employee Unions [Kamu Emekçileri Sendikaları Konfederasyonu]. 75 Turkey’s inclusion among the list of potential EU members set the pace and tone of recent changes. Unemployment insurance for workers belonging to the SSK was initiated in 1999. The Law on Public Employees’ Trade Unions (no. 4683) was enacted in 2001 to address EU concerns about restrictions on public sector employees’ rights to organize. Regulations on retirement age and job security laws were modified in 2002.94 As of the writing of this report, Turkey had ratified 40 ILO conventions, 36 of which were in force.95 Table 7.2.1. Main regulatory texts on the labour market Subject Date No. Weekend vacation 1924 394 Law or decree Law Notes IL0 Work life and social security 1932 1936 3008 -Law Ministry of Labour Ministry of Labour Union activity 1945 1946 1947 4763 4841 5018 Law Law Law - Pensioner’s Chest 1950 5434 Law - Union activity 1963 274 Law Union activity 1963 275 Law - Social Insurance Law 1965 506 Law - White-collar public employee unions Marine work law 1965 624 Law - 1967 854 Law Work law 1971 1475 Law - - - 94 95 In towns with population ten thousand or above, mandatory weekend vacation on Fridays is legislated (Sundays in 1935). Revised many times (latest in 1972). Turkey became a member. First work law It had provisos for the gradual establishment of social security. Establishment Enhanced responsibilities First unions law Aims for governmental control of the activities of workers and employers’ unions. Government employees established unions. Establishment Social security organization for military personnel, white-collar public employees, and their dependents. Unions law 1961 constitution enlarged union rights. Abolished in 1983. Contract bargaining, strikes, and lockout regulations. Social security coverage was enlarged from the coverage of work law no. 3008 to anyone working under a contract for an employer. Previous regulations had also covered seamen (law no. 5953), and news media (law no. 6379). Outlawed after the 1971 military coup. Concerns seamen and ship owners. Amended a few times (last in 1988). Covers most wage-salary workers. Amended a few times (last in 1989). Note: Almost all of the 2-million strong public officials are subject to law no. 657. There are also approximately 250 thousand white-collar public employees on fixed-term contracts. They are regulated under the governmental decree no. 399. See section 8.1 below for detailed information on job security legislation. The list may be reviewed at: http://webfusion.ilo.org/public/db/standards/normes/appl/. 76 Bağ-Kur 1971 1479 Law - Ministry of Social Security Work life 1974 4-1040 Presidential decree Constitution - 1983 - Unions law 1983 2821 Law - Weekly working hours MLSS 1983 1983 2869 184 MLSS KOSGEB 1985 1990 3146 3624 Law Governmental decree Law Law - Establishment of a social security organization in agricultural and other self-employment. SSK and Bağ-Kur had a ministry. Item 48: Freedom to work and contract. Item 49: Right to work. Item 50: Working conditions. Item 51: Right to form unions. Item 52: Union activity (abolished in 1995). Item 53: Right for collective contract bargaining. Item 54: Right to strike and lockout. Item 55: Minimum wage. Regulates the establishment and activities of employers and workers’ unions. Amended a few times (last in 1995). Occupational and workplace unions are illegal. From 48 to 45. Unification Changes to 184. Organization for SME adoption of high technologies. - It is ‘related’ to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Unemployment 1999 4447 Law - Time-limited insurance for those who insurance lose their jobs through no fault of their own. - Started in 2002. - İŞKUR collects, administers, and pays out the monies. SSK 2000 616 Governmental - SSK reorganized: It now has two general decree directorates for social insurance and health services. İŞKUR 2000 617 Governmental - Former employment agency was decree reorganized as the Turkish Employment Agency. MLSS 2000 618 Governmental - Reorganization to accommodate the decree above mentioned institutional changes. Retirement age 2002 4759 Law - Potential age for retirement was pulled up from 38 for women and 43 for men, to 58 and 60, respectively. The law allows for a transition period. Job security 2002 4773 Law - The law states conditions for termination of the job contract by the employer. Work Law 2003 4857 Law - Comprehensive law that regulates the sphere of work. Replaces Law no. 1475. İŞKUR Law 2003 4904 Law - The legal framework for İŞKUR (Turkish Employment Agency). Sources: [http://]www.calisma.gov.tr (Ministry of Labour and Social Security), www.ssk.gov.tr (Social Insurance Organization), www.bagkur.gov.tr (Bağ-Kur), www.emeklisandigi.gov.tr (social security organization for government white-collar employees), www.iskur.gov.tr (Turkish Employment Organization), www.kosgeb.com (SME development centre), www.turizm.gov.tr (Ministry of Tourism), www.turkis.org.tr (TÜRKİŞ). - 77 Regulations on hours of work:96 Civil servants outside the health sector have had a 40 hour work week since 1975. Civil servants in the health sector have a longer, 45 hour work week. For others the statutory length of the work week was reduced from 48 to 45 hours per week in 1983. In establishments which operate 6-days per week the maximum per day is 7.5 hours. If Saturday is a half-day (say 5 hrs.) then remaining time is distributed evenly as 8 hours per day. If establishment has a 5-day work-week then maximum is 9 hours per day. The maximum per day is set at 8 hours for children under 16. In certain types of work other rules apply. For example, drivers of heavy vehicles must not work more than 9 hours per day. Time spent nursing by a working mother is reckoned as part of the statutory hours of work. Work performed past the daily maximum is regarded as overtime work. Overtime wages equalling 1.5 times the hourly wage apply after 7.5, 8, or 9 hours per day, depending on the type of work-week adopted by the establishment. Overtime work must not exceed 3 hours per day, and 90 days per year. Overtime work is prohibited in operations where health considerations put a limit on hours of work. Children are not permitted to work overtime. There are no overtime provisions for seamen. Work performed during the night, defined as that part of the day beginning not later than 8 p.m., and ending not earlier than 6 a.m., is considered night work. Night work cannot exceed 7.5 hours per shift. Men under the age of 18 and women irrespective of their age cannot be employed in industrial night work. In establishments that rely on shift work, workers are not allowed to be engaged in the night shift for more than a week. When changing shifts, workers must be given at least 8 hour’s rest. Employees engaged in shift work are entitled to a weekly rest day of not less than 24 hours. Planned changes: A new comprehensive labour law, which would replace the existing Work Law (no. 1475) was on the legislative agenda of the Parliament which was dissolved as a result of the elections in November 2002.97 The draft was prepared by a scientific committee consisting of 9 university professors, appointed on the basis of a protocol between the MLSS, and the major employee (TÜRK-İŞ, HAK-İŞ, and DİSK) and employer (TİSK) organizations. The objective was to enact a new work law that addresses employer and employee concerns and is in accordance with the EU regulations. Since legislation that increased severance pay from 15 to 30 days’ wages for every year worked was enacted before the unemployment insurance system was initiated, employers advocated a revision of the protective clauses. The draft also included stronger job security regulations that catered to demands from worker unions. This latter part was enacted by the parliament shortly before the recent elections despite strong resistance from employers’ unions.98 A detailed discussion of the existing regulation on severance pay, unemployment insurance, and job loss compensation (for displaced workers of SEEs), which together constitute the framework for passive labour market measures, is the subject of section 8.1. 96 Excerpted from Dereli (1997), Ch.4. In fact the new law (no. 4857) was enacted on May 22, 2003, after the writing on the report was completed. 98 Press releases on the subject may be found on the TİSK web site, http://www.tisk.org.tr. 97 78 7.3 Industrial Relations The current framework for industrial relations has been established by two laws that date from 1983: Unions Law (no. 2821) and the Law on Collective Labour Agreements, Strikes, and Lockouts (no. 2822). Law no. 2821 demarcates 28 economic activities (EAs) [iş kolu] as the organizational domain of employee and employer unions. In order to be able to engage in collective bargaining with the employees, a union has to represent more than half of the workers employed in the establishment, and at least 10 percent of the workers in the workforce associated with the EA of the workplace. The EA to which the workplace belongs is determined by the MLSS. The MLSS regularly publishes data on Workers and Establishments broken down by EA. Based on the statistics from January 2002, a total workforce of about 4.6 million workers were employed by 383 thousand establishments. Of the total workforce, close to one million were employed by establishments with 1-9 workers, and about 1.2 million were employed by establishments with 10-49 workers. The average size of the workforce per EA was around 163 thousand. Two of the EAs had workforces which were smaller than 10 percent of this average (9,040 in ship building, 9,828 in journalism), while six boasted workforces twice as large as the average (328 thousand in food, 513 thousand in textiles, 530 thousand in metal, 664 thousand in construction, 431 thousand in commerce, education, and fine arts, 418 thousand in general services).99 The requirement of representation for 10 percent or more of the workforce of the EA provision virtually eliminated unions at the enterprise level. Although some independent unions managed to survive by specializing in small industries, the need to organize at the national level resulted in centralization. Presently there are over one hundred employee unions active in the private sector, and over fifty in the public sector. A majority of these are affiliated with one of three labour union confederations: TÜRKİŞ (the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions), DİSK (the Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions) and HAKİŞ. A fourth, MİSK, is considerably smaller, and is more active as a political organization than a union confederation. On the employers’ side, twenty employer unions function under a single confederation, TİSK (the Turkish Confederation of Employer Associations). Social dialogue: The legislation that governs industrial relations has stipulations for social dialogue at the workplace/enterprise level. Union representatives have a say on matters such as annual leave, discipline, health, and safety. Various other institutions that function at the national or local level were established with a view towards engendering bipartite or tripartite dialogue. The list that follows identifies some of the more important ones.100 Economic and Social Council: [Ekonomik ve Sosyal Konsey] This Council was established as an advisory body in 1995 to address economic and social issues at the highest level. Its formal status has been affirmed by legislation enacted in April 2001 (Law no. 4641 on Establishment and Working Principles and Procedures of Economic and Social Council). It is chaired by the Prime-Minister and includes Deputy Prime Minister(s), Ministers of Finance, Labour and Social Security, Industry and Trade, Agriculture, Energy and Natural 99 The data are from Ministry of Labour and Social Security (2002), p.127. This list has been excerpted from the paper submitted by Turkey to a Conference organized by the ILO and ETF, titled “Lifelong Learning and Social Dialogue,” held in Malmö, Sweden, 23-25 April 2001. 100 79 Resources and related Ministers without portfolios, plus Undersecretaries of the State Planning Organization, the Treasury, and Foreign Trade on the government side. Social partners include the Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce and Bourses (TOBB) [Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birliği], TİSK, Turkish Confederation of Tradesmen and Artisans (TESK) [Türkiye Esnaf ve Sanatkarlar Konfederasyonu], and Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture (TZOB) [Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği] from the business side, and DİSK, HAKİŞ and TÜRKİŞ from the workers’ side. Provincial Employment Committees: [İl İstihdam Kurulları] These were set up to provide tripartite consultation at the province level. They contribute to employment policy making by addressing issues such as design of measures that prevent unemployment and increase employment rates, including training activities. The Committees are chaired by the Governor of the province, who is appointed by the Government. They include local representatives from the offices of İŞKUR and relevant ministries, employer and employee organizations, boards of commerce and industry, and universities. Minimum Wage Determination Commission: [Asgari Ücret Tespit Komisyonu] This Commission convenes with the participation of the representatives from the State, trade union confederations and employer associations. Its membership is renewed annually by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security. Supreme Arbitration Board: [Yüksek Hakem Kurulu] This Board has broad powers over collective bargaining. In particular it resolves conflicts arising from the Government’s exercise of its power to postpone or ban strikes. Its decisions cannot be appealed. The Board includes representatives from trade union confederations and employer associations, plus an impartial third party, typically from universities. Other platforms for social dialogue include the administrative bodies of various State agencies which design and deliver services directed to labour market participants. The General Assembly and Executive Boards of the Turkish Employment Institution (İŞKUR), are cases in point. Of the 50 members on the general board of İŞKUR, 28 represent employer organisations, trade unions, institutions of higher education, chambers of commerce and industry, and voluntary organisations. The others are government appointees who represent various agencies directly or indirectly involved with employment policy. The Executive Board of İŞKUR includes one representative each from TESK, and employer and employee organizations that have the largest representation (currently TİSK and TÜRKİŞ). Two bodies that function under İŞKUR, the Unemployment Insurance Fund Management Board, and the Occupational Standards Commission, also have representatives from employee and employer organizations. Similarly General Assemblies and Executive Committees of public social insurance institutions (SSK and Bağ-Kur) feature tripartite participation. Social partners also have a voice in vocational training activities. The Apprenticeship and Vocational Training Council, and the Provincial Apprenticeship and Vocational Training Boards adopt recommendations and suggestions from a wide constituency. Autonomous agencies such as KOSGEB and METARGEM, which play an important role in vocational education and training (see section 6.3), get resources and input from employee and employer organizations. Likely agenda for change: Passage of a new work law that complies with the ILO norms and addresses the concerns of the EU is on the short term agenda (see section 7.2). The unemployment insurance legislation which was enacted in 1999 has been greeted with objections from both sides of the aisle. Unions find its coverage inadequate. Employers object to additional wage costs and 80 see this as a further blow to their ability to compete in the global market. Employers have long argued in favour of a reduction of fringe benefits they consider excessive and strengthening the link between wage costs and actual hours worked. Unions, on the other hand, have viewed challenges to the non-wage provisions as attempts to reduce the standard of living of workers. There are three arguments in the employer concerns about high labour costs: (i) high taxes paid on wages, (ii) low productivity, and (iii) high costs of job security provisions. In a recent study, Özyıldırım and Togan (1998) use TİSK data from 1995 to detail wage costs. They find that out of every 100 TL paid by the employer only 57 TL reaches the worker, while 43 TL is paid to the government in the form of taxes. Worker’s share includes wage payments directly related to hours of work (40 TL, or 70 percent of net pay) as well as fringe benefits (17 TL, or 30 percent of net pay) such as weekend and holiday pay, bonuses and other legal or contractual payment obligations. The amount paid to the government includes employer’s contributions to social security (16 TL, or 16 percent of gross pay) and worker’s share of social security contributions and income tax withholding (27 TL, or 27 percent of gross pay). The authors point out that these are the highest deduction rates among the OECD countries. In another recent study, Daşkıran and Özmen (1998) offer evidence regarding (ii). They investigate productivity over the period 1965-1995 using two measures: per capita GDP and output per worker. They conclude that Turkey has the lowest productivity levels when compared to other OECD countries. In responding to this evidence, labour union spokespeople are quick to point out that Turkey also has the lowest wages among the OECD countries. Turning to (iii), TİSK data from 2001 reveal that out of 100 TL worth of labour costs, 38.6 TL is paid to the government, while 51.9 TL is paid to active workers, and 9.5 TL to former workers in the form of severance and advance notice payments (TİSK, 2002). A recent study by Heckman and Pages (2003: Table 2) which relies on data from the end of the 1990s lends some credence to employer concerns about costs of labour market legislation. In terms of expected cost of job security provision, at 3.97 months of pay Turkey ranks second highest in the OECD (below Portugal), but considerably closer to low cost countries (such as Argentina and Chile) than high cost countries (such as Brazil and Colombia) in Latin America. Heckman and Pages measure the cost of compliance with social security in Turkey as 35 percent of the monthly wage, which is higher than the averages for both the OECD (31 percent) and Latin American (21 percent) countries. The press release based on the seminar on employment policies organized by TİSK lists macroeconomic instability, expansion of the informal sector, and high levels of unemployment as the most important problems facing Turkey (December 2002). Similar views are voiced by TÜSİAD (Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen Association) and TOBB (the Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce and Bourses). These concerns have long been on the agenda of labour union confederations. Although the parties agree that these are key problems, they differ on the solutions. Employers associations call for flexibility (less stringent labour market regulations), better incentives for entrepreneurs, privatization, and wage increases commensurate with productivity gains. Many of the proposed changes are anathema to labour unions. Although all three major labour union confederations object to employers’ demands, the issue of labour market flexibility is firmly on the short-term agenda. Job security, severance pay and unemployment insurance provisions are likely to be affected. A compromise that balances the flexibility concerns of establishments, against the job security concerns of unions and workers is likely. 81 8. Labour Market Policies101 Despite the neo-liberal outlook of the post-1980 policy reorientation, employment protection appears to have been a shared goal of the coalition governments that ran Turkey in the 1990s.102 The failed stabilization attempts, slow progress of privatization, and bloated public administration, are some of the more obvious pieces of corroborating evidence. The lenient requirements for retirement with full pension payments that remained in place until May 2002, and allowed the governments to extend the benefits of employment to broader segments of the population, can be seen as an extension of this policy. Thus it is not surprising that severance pay for workers with indefinite employment contracts was the only passive labour market instrument that was widely used in Turkey as of the end of 1998. Nor is it surprising that the fiercest and longest lasting battle between the employer organisations on the one hand, and trade unions on the other, has been fought over severance pay. In what constitutes the most notable attempt to address labour market concerns in the post1980 period, the legal framework for unemployment insurance was established in August 1999. The premium collections were started in June 2000 and the first payments were made in March 2002. The outgoing coalition government also enacted a new Job Security Law, despite objections of large business organizations. Two programs targeting displaced workers in the privatized SEEs, initiated and supported by the World Bank, contain a mix of passive and active measures. The first is the Privatization Implementation Assistance and Social Safety Net Project (PIAL) which was active during 1994-95. These funds were underutilized, because privatization did not proceed as planned. The second is the Privatization Social Support Project (PSSP) which started in 2000. The active measures include training, temporary work, and small business consulting components. Finally, a multi-purpose program, titled Employment and Training Project, was implemented between 1993 and 2000 by several government agencies. A component titled Labour Market Information [Project] (LMIP) was used to upgrade data collection and dissemination capabilities of the SIS.103 Notably the source used intensively for the purposes of this report, the HLFS data base maintained on the web page of the SIS, was put together as a result of LMIP. In comparison with the EU, the scope of active labour market programs is extremely limited in Turkey.104 Emphasis is on vocational training programs. The employment record reviewed above underscores both the need for broader government involvement, as well as the necessity of changing the nature of government involvement. The establishment of the Employment Organisation (İŞKUR) is a step in the right direction. 8.1 Passive labour market measures Currently there are three passive labour market measures in Turkey. Severance payment obligation of the employer constitutes the oldest, and broadest of these. The recently 101 Subsections 8.1-8.4 have been written in collaboration with İŞKUR Directorate. See Tansel (2001) and World Bank (2002: 67-70). 103 The surveys funded by the LMIP include: Employment and Wage Structure Survey, Employment and Earning Survey [the data sources used in *Tunalı (2002)], a special module of the HLFS dedicated to education, the Informal Sector Survey, the Productivity Survey, and the Agricultural Wage Survey. 104 See Auer and Popova (2002). 102 82 instituted unemployment insurance covers workers who have held continuous employment for 600 days or more. It is funded by contributions from the worker, employer, and the government. Technically all workers should benefit from these arrangements. In practice only formal sector workers do. The third measure is specifically designed to provide job loss compensation for workers displaced by privatization. These are reviewed in some detail below. As mentioned in section 7.2, the proposed changes in the Labour Law are meant to match the regulatory environment in the EU and have implications for severance payments and unemployment insurance. Severance payments: Labour Law no. 1475 requires the employer to compensate an employee who has qualified for an indefinite contract for accumulated service in the event of death, voluntary termination of employment (as a result of retirement, marriage [applies to females only], or military service obligations [applies to males only]), or an involuntary discharge (unless it can prove that the worker is at fault). Until the passage of the new Job Security legislation shortly before the general elections, a worker who worked for at least a year without a written fixedterm contract was automatically granted an indefinite contract with the firm.105 Effective March 2003, the indefinite contract will become effective after six months, BY>>> and workers who are fired for reasons other than those allowed under the new law (no. 4773) will qualify for additional compensation.106 This regulation affects establishments with 10 or more workers. Severance pay has two components: seniority payment [kıdem tazminatı], and (advanced) notice payment [ihbar tazminatı]. Seniority payment is equal to a full month’s (30 days’) salary for every year of service. The yearly amount cannot exceed the yearly retirement bonus payable to the person in the highest level of civil service (currently the Undersecretary of the Prime Minister). Notice payment covers wages payable to a worker for the period stipulated under the advanced notice requirement, if the employer wants to fire the worker immediately. Given the moral hazards of retaining a fired worker, employers typically pay both components and terminate the relationship when they serve the notice. The period of advanced notice, and hence the notice payment, is also a function of years of service. If the employee has worked less than 6 months, then the period is 2 weeks; if tenure is between six months and 1.5 years, then the period is 4 weeks; if tenure is between 1.5 and 3 years, then the period is 6 weeks; if tenure exceed 3 years, then period equals 8 weeks. For example, for a worker with 20 years of service, severance pay consists of 20 months of wages as seniority payment, and 8 weeks of wages as notice payment. In establishments covered by collective bargaining agreements, both components can be raised in accordance with the last agreement made between the employer and the union. 105 The notion of an indefinite contract applies to seasonal and part time workers as well. The new law allows the worker fast track access to legal action. If the Court determines that the worker has been wrongfully fired and the firm does not take her/him back, the new law imposes a penalty of no less than 6, and nor more than 12 months of wages, plus up to 4 months of additional wages for compensation for the time it takes to finalize the legal proceedings. In addition, compared to Labour Law no. 1475, the new Job Security law expands the definition of mass dismissal, extends the job security benefits to journalists, and includes additional protection for workers engaged in organizing activities on behalf of unions. 106 83 If the worker initiates the separation, the law puts the burden of serving advanced notice on the worker, and treats the employer as the harmed party. The law also stipulates the conditions for immediate termination of the contract without severance payment.107 Unemployment Insurance: The Unemployment Insurance (UI) System was established on 25 August 1999, upon ratification of Law no. 4447. Collection of premiums commenced on 1 June 2000, and first benefit payments were made in March 2002. The system caters to workers who are registered to the Social Insurance Institution (SSK) and does not cover civil servants or the self employed. Also included are foreigners working under reciprocity agreements. Benefits are payable for a period of time. Payment duration depends on the length of employment and the accumulated premium. The system is designed as a group insurance policy for workers who lose their jobs involuntarily and are not at fault.108 Premium contribution is calculated as a fraction of the gross wage (used for determining the social security premium) and was originally set as 2 percent for the worker, 3 percent for the employer, plus an additional 2 percent that comes from the State.109 Since the law requires the payment of at least 600 days of premiums in the 3 year period before becoming unemployed (as well as 120 days of continuous employment and premium payment prior to the layoff) payments began in March 2002. UI replacement rate equals 50 percent of the average daily wage calculated on the portion of wages that qualify for the UI premium earned during the last four months before becoming unemployed. However, the benefits cannot exceed the monthly net minimum wage in force. The duration of payment is dependent on the number of days the premiums have been paid (providing the requirement of 120 days of continuous employment and premium payment prior to the layoff is met). Those who have paid premiums for 600 days in the last three years receive benefits for 6 months, those who have paid up for 900 days in the last three years receive benefits for 8 months and those who have paid up for 1080 days in the last three years collect benefits for 10 months (1 month = 30 days). In addition to these payments, health and maternity insurance coverage, job search help, vocational training, vocational development and retraining services are provided to the unemployed. SSK is responsible for collecting the unemployment insurance premiums. All other activities directed to the unemployed workers are carried out by İŞKUR. The insurance fund is managed by a board consisting of employee, employer and Treasury representatives, and is headed by the Director General of İŞKUR. İŞKUR Directorate estimates that some 5 million workers had social security coverage through SSK as of 2002 and could in theory be contributing to the UI fund. The number of workers collecting benefits was 5,710 in March 2002 (first month of the program) and rose 107 The reasons for immediate termination are collected under three main headings: (i) health problems, (ii) violation of good will, immoral or dishonourable conduct, and (iii) force majeur. The situation must render continuation of the contract impossible for one of the parties involved (Sözer, 2001: 241-245). 108 Labour Law gives the employer the right to terminate the contract in case the worker violates the good-will clause, or engages in immoral or dishonourable conduct. What constitutes faulty conduct by the worker is exemplified, and similar actions may be sufficient for termination (Sözer, 2001: 243). 109 As mentioned in section 2.3, in light of the negative employment consequences the 2001 economic crisis, premium contributions were reduced by one point in 2002 to provide incentives for employment. The reduced rates will continue to apply in 2003. 84 steadily to 39,692 in October. These figures pale by comparison with the total number of unemployed in Turkey (close to 2.4 million according to HLFS 2002: 3) and the unemployed stock registered with İŞKUR (around 550 thousand in October 2002). Job Loss Compensation: In accordance with Law no. 4046 on the Regulation of Privatization Applications, displaced workers in State Owned Enterprises are entitled to job loss compensation payable out of the privatization fund, in addition to the severance payments. The amount of compensation and other benefits depend on the service period and last month’s wages. The job loss compensation equals 90 days of wages for those with up to 550 days of service, 120 days of wages for those with up to 1100 days of service, 180 days of wages for those with up to 1650 days of service, and 240 days of wages for those with up to 2200 days of service. The displaced workers register with İŞKUR, and their social security premiums are paid to SSK for the stipulated periods. İŞKUR also provides services, such as help with finding a new job, and training for occupational development and new skill acquisition. Between March 1995 and October 2002, job loss compensation was paid to 14,049 individuals. 8.2 Active labour market measures During the past decade, targeted training programs directed to both non-employed and employed individuals, accounted for the lion’s share of active labour market programs. Some of these programs catered to the needs of self-employed individuals and start-up businesses. Starting with the mid 90s, a number of direct measures aimed at increasing employment have been implemented. Programs directed to dislocated workers of privatized SEEs were the first to be put into operation. In 1998 programs that subsidize employment in the relatively backward regions of the country were introduced. In 1999 temporary work programs were initiated in areas affected by the August and November earthquakes. Following the economic crisis in 2001, broader measures were adopted by the Government. The 2002 Budget Law included a stipulation for lowering the contributions of the parties (workers, employers, and the State) towards the UI system by one percent for the year 2002. The lower rates are expected to be in effect in 2003. Law no. 4747 enacted in 2002 postponed the payment of employer’s share of social security premiums for one year for every new worker employed. Training programs: As discussed in section 6.3 above, the vocational education and training system has a continuing education and life-long learning component which is implemented by public and private training institutions, İŞKUR, municipalities, foundations, NGOs and enterprises. Apprenticeship training programs directed to the youth constitute the largest training activity undertaken in Turkey. As pointed out earlier, the primary responsibility belongs to the Ministry of National Education (MoNE). Professional organizations offer training in occupational areas that fall outside the scope of the activities of the MoNE. İŞKUR is specifically charged with the task of conducting training activities based on labour market needs analysis. These have targeted youth, women, those who have lost their jobs, those receiving unemployment allowance, the handicapped, and ex-convicts. The scope, number, and target group of the training courses are established by Provincial Employment Committees which include public and private representatives (see section 7.3). Among the labour force training programs directed to the non-employed are the “employment guaranteed training courses.” The courses are structured in partnership with public, private or non-governmental organizations and İŞKUR procures the course services from them. The courses are attended by the unemployed registered with İŞKUR. At least 60 percent of those 85 attending the courses have to be employed for a period of time by the partner organization. Since 2001, in cooperation with the Ministry of Justice, İŞKUR has been implementing a similar program targeting convicts who are close to being discharged. A different training program implemented by İŞKUR focuses on courses that develop self employment skills. In the last ten years approximately 96 thousand people have benefited from these two programs (see Table 8.2.1). Table 8.2.1. Labour Force Training Courses YEARS 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* TOTAL *Data as of the end of June. Source: İŞKUR Directorate. NUMBER OF COURSES NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS 470 628 841 1092 611 608 496 222 194 43 43 5.628 8.069 11.536 15.695 20.037 11.426 10.753 9.742 4.384 3.101 744 728 96.499 Approximately 8700 people received courses in a given year. On average there were 1.6 million unemployed individuals during this time. Thus 5 out of every 1000 unemployed individuals benefited from this program. In the last ten years, 3500 people have attended the training programs organized with the specific aim of developing the occupational knowledge and skills of the handicapped. On average 312 people were trained per year, 13 per course. Labour force training courses are also offered to the employed. İŞKUR organizes worker development seminars as well as first and middle level management courses. In seminars which have been mostly held at manufacturing industry enterprises of the private sector, 24 thousand people have received training in the last ten years. Temporary Public Works Programs: Temporary Public Works Programs [Toplum Yararına Çalışma Programları] are designed to alleviate employment consequences of shocks (natural disasters, economic crises, dislocation due to privatization, etc.) by providing temporary employment (for a period not exceeding 6 months) to people in a target group. The jobs created by the program serve the affected community. Funding has been provided by the World Bank. The programs are directed by İŞKUR. The first temporary work program (funded out of the Labour Adjustment Project [İşgücü Uyum Projesi], a component of PIAL) targeted workers affected by privatization induced layoffs and consisted of 36 projects involving 846 individuals. The second (funded out of the Employment and Training Project [İşgücü Uyum Projesi]) was put into practice in 5 provinces (Sakarya, Bolu, Düzce, Yalova and Kocaeli) most affected by the earthquake disasters of 17 August and 12 November 1999. In this context, 140 projects involving 4605 people were implemented. Additional programs (to be funded from the Privatization Social Support Project) are being planned. 86 Programs directed at small businesses and own-account workers: In Turkey individuals who work on their own account, and individuals who work in small establishments that employ less than 10 workers comprise a large segment of the workforce. Based on the 2000 HLFS, the shares were just under 57 percent in the case of males, and just under 22 percent in the case of females. With this in mind, the Institute of Entrepreneurship Development [Girişimciliği Geliştirme Enstitüsü] organized under KOSGEB administers a number of programs for small businesses (see section 6.3.2). Training and consulting: Training programs are designed to inform candidate entrepreneurs on the practicalities of starting a business, such as carrying out a feasibility study and preparing a business plan. Consulting services are provided to individual entrepreneurs to help out with the preliminary research, case studies and analyses that yield individual business plans. Financing for these support functions comes from World Bank funds (as part of the Privatisation Social Support Project) and KOSGEB budget. Business Incubators: Funds are available from the same sources towards the establishment of business incubators for which the primary target group are the unemployed people. Incubators provide office space, secretarial support, access to common equipment and counselling. Using these funds, KOSGEB established a business incubator in Zonguldak. KOSGEB has also established 10 technology incubators in different provinces of Turkey with its own funds. Young Entrepreneur Development Programme: The purpose of this program is to channel university students into setting up their own businesses, thereby promoting a culture of entrepreneurship at the universities. The program consists of training and consulting sessions, workshops, on the job training and enterprise panels. The speakers on the panels are drawn from university professors, experienced entrepreneurs, bank managers and KOSGEB staff. KOSGEB has provided 18,500 man-hours of training for groups from different universities over the period 1999-2001. Subsidised Employment Programs: In order to provide incentives for employment, various laws have been enacted. Law no. 4325 dated 1998, which applies to newly employed workers at enterprises active in Regions with Extraordinary Conditions (in the East and Southeast) and Development Priority Provinces determined by the Council of Ministers, stipulates the payment of the employer’s share of the social security premium from the State budget. In 2001 alone, employers claimed this subsidy for 906,546 workers. Taken at face value, this figure suggests that employers are extremely responsive to the subsidy, which reduces their wage costs by 21.527 percent (see section 2.3). On the other hand it is hard to believe that this many new jobs got created during a deep recession, in regions which have lagged behind those in the west in terms of output and per capita income.110 Law no. 4382 dated 1998, requires enterprises with 50 or more workers to employ 3 handicapped individuals and 3 ex-convicts per 100 employees. The law rewards enterprises which exceed this quota by annulling the employers’ share of the social security premium, and shifting the burden over to the State Budget. In 2001, a total of 2520 handicapped individuals and ex-convicts benefited from this program. 110 According to HLFS 2001, the total number of wage and salary workers was around 10.2 million. 87 8.3 Public Employment Services The Employment Organisation (İŞKUR), whose role in the reorganized State bureaucracy was discussed in section 7.1, is charged with the responsibility of providing Public Employment Services (PES). As pointed out in section 7.3, the governance structure of İŞKUR signals acknowledgement of the multipartite nature of employment policy making. İŞKUR has offices in all the provinces and coordinates its functions with Provincial Employment Committees. The main responsibilities of İŞKUR, as spelled out in the original decree are: • • • • • to help job-seekers to find jobs, and to help employers to find workers; to provide job and career counselling services and training programs for improving job search methods through vocational information centres; to implement active labour market programs (in addition to usual training and employment services); to implement passive labour force programs (such as the unemployment insurance system); to regulate private employment agencies A duty that İŞKUR inherited from İİBK has been the supervision of recruitment for the public sector. Most people who register with İŞKUR (see section 3.7 above) still continue to do so for this reason. The job brokerage role of İŞKUR for the private sector is limited. In 2001, İŞKUR processed 327,417 new job applications. It placed a total of 213,998 individuals, of which 70,108 (33 percent) went to the private sector. Compared to its counterparts in the EU, İŞKUR has a small staff and few local offices. The personnel ceiling set in the new draft law is 3100. However, because of current problems over its legal status, İŞKUR is not allowed to recruit new staff. As of October 2002 the organisation had a total of 1760 employees, in the general directorate located in Ankara, and 116 offices in 81 provinces. With the exception of the managerial staff recently hired for the purpose of the reorganization and reorientation, most of the personnel of İŞKUR were working in İİBK. The annual budget of İŞKUR was around US$16 million in 2001 and US$20 million in 2002. The Government’s share was approximately 75 percent in 2001 and 83 percent in 2002. Financial constraints prevent İŞKUR from broadening the reach of labour force training programs. No additional resource allocation is made from the general budget for the implementation of active labour market programs. As is, a very large fraction of the budgetary allocation to İŞKUR goes to the payment of personnel wages (68 percent in 2001, 55 percent in 2002). The organization finances the training programs from its limited activity income and using funds from foreign resources, especially the World Bank.111 The ebbs and flows of foreign funding and support obtained from the private sector result in fluctuations in the services (as exemplified in Table 8.2.1). Personnel shortages and insufficient technical capacity emerge as additional constraining factors. For example, although İŞKUR faces no financial constraints in tackling its responsibility for organizing training courses on occupational acquirement and development as part of the UI system, it can only serve a fraction of those who qualify with its existing personnel resources. 111 Between 1994 and 2000 World Bank financing to the tune of US$ 67.1 million was secured through the Employment and Training Project (total budget US$ 107.5 million) and US$ 250 million through the Privatization Social Support Project (total budget US$ 335.5 million). 88 8.4 Industrial policies Two government documents, the Recommendations On National Employment Policy, which contain the resolutions adopted during the 1st General Assembly of İŞKUR (23-24 May 2001), and the 8th Five-Year Development Plan (henceforth ‘the Plan’) provide information on the main policy orientations. In what follows we highlight the proposals contained in İŞKUR (2001), and include short discussions as appropriate, to elaborate and to reflect the views of the State Planning Organization (SPO), the State agency in charge of developing economic policy proposals, as stated in SPO (2000). • Employment will be at the centre of economic policies. • Employment creation in high productivity sectors is desirable. Investments should be directed into high value added sectors, which use new technology. • Education policy and employment policy should be coordinated. vocational education and training should be increased. Investments in SPO (2000, p. 96) underscores the rapid improvement of the quality of Turkey’s labour force as the main component of the strategy to seek international competitiveness. SPO states that the emphasis will be on allocating more resources, and effective utilization of these resources, for the purposes of training the work force (p. 98). To this end, the Plan posits that “investments and activities towards information technologies and mainly software, R&D and development of technology, … improving small and medium size enterprises, provision of qualified labour, creating employment, … reducing regional disparities shall be supported. In supporting investments, the main objectives shall be adapting to changing domestic and foreign market conditions … reduction of bureaucracy, establishing transparency … while taking EU implementations into account.” (Unedited excerpt, p. 33.) The establishment of a National Occupational Standards Board which will function under İŞKUR and oversee occupational standards, education requirements, and certification procedures is a welcome development for facilitating policy coordination aimed at improvement of the quality if the workforce. • Payroll taxes should be reviewed and if possible reduced, barring negative consequences for government’s finances. The Plan recognizes the need for labour market flexibility and suggests social dialogue for resolving differences on issues such as payroll taxes and changing the basic wage/fringe benefits ratio to tie take-home pay to actual working hours (p. 255). To this end, the Plan recommends taking the norms and standards of the ILO and the EU into consideration. The link between high payroll taxes and low job creation in the formal sector is underscored in position statements of employer associations.112 A related issue in the context of formal employment is the post 1990 phenomenon of illegal foreign workers, which is seen as a serious threat by labour union confederations.113 Also included on the list of employer grievances are quotas for individuals with disabilities, ex-convicts and persons affected by terrorism, and training obligations (see section 6.3.1 above).114 İŞKUR’s financial accounts 112 See, in particular, İşveren [Employer], the monthly publication of TİSK. See Koç (1999), “Türkiye’de Yabancı Kaçak İşçilik” [Illegal Foreign Workers in Turkey], http://www.turkis.org.tr/kacakisci.htm. 114 According to the 2002 General Census, 1.7 percent of those in the 15-54 age group have disabilities. Data by age, sex, location, and nature of the disability are provided in Tables A.8.4.1-A.8.4.6 in Annex 1. 113 89 reveal that many firms prefer to pay the financial penalties rather than abide by the various quotas imposed on them by law. • Support for investments, employment generating, and productivity enhancing activities of firms should be provided by removing the bureaucratic hurdles in front of investment and formal employment. • Support for SMEs and entrepreneurs should be broadened. Provision of investment incentives to SMEs has long been a staple of Turkey’s development plans, with the specific aim of mitigation of regional inequality. The record attests to the difficulties.115 The latest plan includes many references to this policy in various chapters on investment, education, labour force, and vocational training. Furthermore it acknowledges the need to reduce bureaucracy and states, “… amendments shall be made in financial legislation and incentive system to enable the exemption of small-size projects from incentive certificate requirements. Moreover, in order to reduce the bureaucracy further and helping investors, certain procedures concerning investment incentive certificates shall be carried out in the provinces of the investment.” (Unedited excerpt, p. 33.) The programme of the new government does not signal any radical departures from the liberal policy orientation that marked the post-1980 period. In particular the restructuring that hinged on the privatization of the SEEs will continue, assuming buyers can be found. It should be kept in mind that in the industrialization policies that remained in force until 1980, the location of SEEs was viewed as an instrument for balancing regional and national development concerns. If and when the pace of privatization increases, the regional dimension of the employment problems that Turkey faces will require increased attention. 115 Statistics on regional inequality may be found in recent issues of the Human Development Report for Turkey published by the UNDP. 90 9. Summary and Conclusions The year 2001 went into the record books as the year of the severest economic crisis in Turkey since the 1950s, as the GNP plummeted by more than 10 percent. Over a period of two years the number of unemployed individuals doubled, and exceeded 2.8 million during the first quarter of 2003. The crash of 2001 came after a decade marked by moderate average growth of about 3.5 percent per annum, and significant volatility caused by external events as well as poor macroeconomic management. Starting with the Gulf War of 1991, economic policy making abilities of governments were put to test in an increasingly global and restive competitive environment. The home grown crisis of 1994, the fallout from the Asian and Russian crises, and the earthquakes in 1999 exposed the fragility of the economy. Revived concerns about sustainability of internal and external debt ushered in a stabilization and inflation reduction program, which ran into trouble late in 2000. The distortions induced by the exchange rate anchor proved unsustainable and the program ended abruptly with a major devaluation and a floating Turkish Lira in February 2001. Of the 32 that contested the general elections held on November 3rd, 2002, only two parties were able to gain representation in the Parliament. Right-of-centre Justice and Development Party [AKP], founded only 18 months ago, was swept to power with 34 percent of the popular vote and 363 seats. Voters penalized political parties that participated in recent governments by shutting them out of the Parliament. Employment growth: Data from the 1988-1998 period, the first decade for which reliable labour market data are available, are useful in establishing how well the economy performed before the recent shocks came. Between 1988 and 1998 total employment (of individuals aged 12 and above) grew at the rate of 1.5 percent per annum, from about 19 million to about 22 million. During this time the number of individuals between the ages of 20 to 54, the subpopulation from which the bulk of the work force is drawn, grew by more than 3 percent per annum. Thus employment growth engendered by moderate annual average growth rate of around 4 percent proved inadequate for absorbing the prime-age population into the workforce. It is instructive to compare the employment growth rate achieved over the 1988-1998 period with that recorded during the period of restructuring. In 1975, when the industrialization drive based on Import Substitution behind trade and exchange rate controls ran into trouble, Turkey had a workforce (of age 12 and over) of 15.2 million (based on the 1975 General Census). The next fifteen years marked the reorientation of the economy towards exports. Based on the 1990 General Census, the workforce (of age 12 and over) stood at 23.4 million, implying an average growth rate of 2.9 percent per annum during the transition period. Census data fail to adjust for the seasonal nature of agricultural employment and consequently overestimate the size of the workforce. As measured by the 1990 Household Labour Force Surveys, the workforce in 1990 (of age 12 and over) was close to 19.3 million. Using this and the biased census figure for 1975, we arrive at a conservative estimate of the average employment growth rate, which turns out to be 1.6 percent per annum for the transition period. The true growth rate was probably near the middle of the 1.6-2.9 range. Role of macroeconomic stability: These figures suggest that the employment creation capability of the Turkish economy did not improve after restructuring. One might argue that this is not all that surprising, given the volatility in the macroeconomic environment. Firstly, the inflation experience of the 90s, and the behaviour of the exchange rate could easily be implicated as factors that hurt Turkey’s 91 export oriented policy. Secondly, a shaky banking sector and exorbitant real interest rates, and exposure to the whims of short term international capital flows, did not provide an environment conducive to investment. Role of the State: A third factor that needs to be addressed is the role of the institutional framework. In its capacity as legislator, policy maker, and enforcer, the Government intervenes in the labour market by setting the minimum wage, the retirement benefits of civil servants and others covered by the publicly funded social security system, the thresholds and rates that apply to social insurance premiums, the administrative fines that firms have to pay in case of infringements of the labour law, and the benefit ceilings for workers who qualify for severance pay and unemployment insurance. Labour market legislation and tax policies together form a complex incentive structure, which can impact both household behaviour (labour supply) and firm behaviour (labour demand). These need to be thoroughly researched and understood, so that their compatibility with macroeconomic policy can be assessed. We offer two pieces of evidence to help clarify the point. Examination of the data on hours of work collected from workers in urban areas reveals a secular increase except for those engaged in agriculture, who account for less than five percent of the urban workforce. Between 1988 and 2001 weekly hours in manufacturing increased by more than five for males, and more than six for females. It is tempting to connect Turkey’s chronic employment creation troubles with the upward trend in actual hours worked. The private sector has long been on record implicating high payroll taxes and severance pay as impediments to hiring. Data suggest that employers respond to uncertainties and fluctuations in demand by adjusting the intensive margin of work (hours), rather than the extensive margin (employment). Research on the informal economy around the World has identified the transaction costs of setting up and running a business as hurdles that stand in the way of expansion of small businesses in the formal sector. Thus the incentive structure can have an impact in ways that are difficult to record in statistics. Reorientation of labour market policy: Despite the neo-liberal outlook of the post-1980 policy reorientation, old fashioned employment protection appears to have been a shared goal of the coalitions that governed Turkey in the 1990s. The failed stabilization (deficit reduction) attempts, slow progress of privatization, and bloated public administration, are some of the more obvious pieces of corroborating evidence. The lenient requirements for retirement with full pension payments that remained in place until May 2002, and allowed the governments to extend the benefits of employment to broader segments of the population, can be seen as an extension of this policy. In fact severance pay for workers with indefinite employment contracts was the only passive labour market instrument that was widely used in Turkey as of the end of 1998. There is evidence that the State is ceding its role as the employer of last resort. The share of the public sector in total wage and salary employment has been estimated at around 33 percent in 1990, 28 percent in 1996, and 12 percent in 1998. The shedding of the public workforce has mainly been implemented by privatization of the State-owned Economic Enterprises. Privatization has been on the agenda since the policy shift announced back in 1980. The impetus for privatization was renewed following the crisis in 1994 and a special office known as the Privatization Administration was set up under the Prime Ministry. This agency, together with İŞKUR, the State Employment Agency, has been implementing programs directed at displaced workers of State-owned Economic Enterprises with various 92 skills and job experiences. Thorough evaluation of these programs is likely to offer important lessons for the design of passive and active labor measures for broader segments of the population. Unemployment: During the decade 1988-1998 the aggregate unemployment rate displayed a declining trend around an average of about 7 percent, attaining the highest value of 9.1 percent in October 1993 and the lowest value of 6.2 percent in October 1996. It averaged 6.6 percent in 2000. As the effects of the economic crisis of February 2001 spread, the unemployment rate averaged 8.4 percent in 2001 and 10.3 percent in the following year. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the number of unemployed individuals rose by 653 thousand in the first quarter of 2002, by 650 thousand in the second, 466 thousand in the third, and by 301 thousand in the fourth. The total number of unemployed individuals, which was estimated to be around 1.5 million in 2000 and 1.9 million in 2001, exceeded 2.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2002. Unemployment insurance: The recently initiated unemployment insurance (UI) system covers around 5 million workers, less than one out of four in the workforce. As of the third quarter of 2002, benefits were being paid out to a tiny fraction of the unemployed (about 40,000 out of nearly 2.4 million). The UI replacement rate equals the maximum of 50 percent of the average of the net wages earned during the last four months before becoming unemployed, and the net minimum wage. The system is designed as a group insurance policy. Workers draw benefits for 6, 8, or 10 months, depending on accumulated premiums. It appears that actuarial principles, rather than information on unemployment spells were relied upon in determining the benefit durations. For the UI system to function as a proper policy tool, the duration of benefits have to be adjusted using labour market and macroeconomic indicators. In particular this requires information on unemployment experiences of the unemployed, as well as the recently employed workers. Presently this information is unavailable. New legislation: A new comprehensive labour law, designed to replace the existing Work Law (no. 1475) was on the legislative agenda of the Parliament which was dissolved as a result of the elections in November 2002. The draft legislation also included new job security regulations. This latter part was enacted by the outgoing Parliament shortly before the recent elections despite strong resistance from employer organizations and became effective as of March 2003. In the draft report circulated prior to the seminar held in Ankara on February 27, 2003, we pointed out that “All things equal, this is likely to increase the chances that recently hired workers will be laid off before the security clauses become effective. Since recently hired workers are either new entrants, or those who lost their jobs as a result of the 2001 crisis, the policy is likely to hurt a vulnerable segment of the population.” According to the preliminary estimates from the HLFS, both the unemployment rate, and the number of unemployed individuals reached new peaks during the first quarter of 2003, respectively at 12.3 percent and over 2.8 million. Even though the economy has been showing signs of recovery, the number of unemployed individuals went up by 313 thousand compared to the first quarter in 2002, and by 155 thousand compared to the last quarter of 2002. Social dialogue: As of 2000, about 20 percent of the paid workforce was covered by collective bargaining agreements. Although legislation passed in 2001 expanded representation and bargaining 93 rights of public sector employees, the law bars some civil servants from becoming union members and forbids others from striking. There are over one hundred employee unions active in the private sector, and over fifty in the public sector. A majority of these are affiliated with one of three labour union confederations: TÜRKİŞ (the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions), DİSK (the Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions) and HAKİŞ. On the employers’ side, twenty employer unions function under a single confederation, TİSK (the Turkish Confederation of Employer Associations). Concerns about regulation in general, and labour market regulation in particular, need to be carefully addressed in devising employment policy. Although all three major labour union confederations object to employers’ demands, the issue of labour market flexibility is firmly on the short-term agenda. Job security, severance pay and unemployment insurance provisions are likely to be affected. A compromise that balances the flexibility concerns of establishments, against the job security concerns of unions and workers is likely. It is crucial that the voices of those who are not members of employee and employer organisations, and those who are yet to enter the labour market, are represented in the social dialogue. The remainder of this summary identifies additional patterns and issues that need to be taken into consideration as Turkey confronts the employment challenges of the 21st century. Changes in the structure of employment: According to the 1975 General Census, nearly 60 percent of the total workforce was employed in agriculture, 14 percent in industry, about 5 percent in construction, and close to 22 percent in services. Following the liberalization of trade and exchange rate policies in the 1980s, the shares as reflected in the 1990 General Census were as follows: Around 54 percent in agriculture, 13 in industry, 5 percent in construction, and 28 percent in services. As mentioned earlier, census data overestimate agricultural employment. According to the 1990 Household Labour Force Surveys, the shares were over 46 percent in agriculture, around 15 in industry, 5 percent in construction, and 33 percent in services. The shift away from agriculture continued throughout the 90s. As of 2000, a little more than 34 percent of the workforce (of age 15 and over) was still in agriculture. Services had emerged as the new leader, at over 40 percent. Industry accounted for around 18 percent and construction for 6 percent. The development experiences of industrialized countries point out that employment growth comes primarily from the expansion of the services sector, and to a limited extent from the manufacturing sector. The evolution of the structure of employment in Turkey suggests a similar pattern. However, concrete evidence is not available. We need better understanding of where jobs are created – which sectors, for whom, by whom – and destroyed. Wages: The inflation experience of the 80s and beyond, coupled with changes in the political environment, have translated into dramatic fluctuations in average real wages. The crash in 2001 that sent unemployment to record levels is likely to have had a major negative impact on real wages. The decline in union power and the decline in the employment share of the public sector have been implicated as forces that are likely to have increased wage inequality during the 80s and 90s. Indeed there is evidence from micro data that wage dispersion increased between late 80s and mid 90s, as a consequence of differential improvements in the returns to education. 94 Demographic trends: According to the General Census, Turkey’s population stood at 67.8 million in 2000. Roughly two thirds of the population (65 percent) lived in urban locations with 20,000 or more inhabitants. Between 1990 and 2000 the population grew at an average annual rate of 1.83 percent. The growth rate was 2.68 percent in urban areas and only 0.42 percent in rural areas. The large difference between the two is attributable to rural-to-urban migration. Most recent predictions indicate that the population of Turkey would stabilize somewhere between 95 and 98 million by the middle of the 21st century. Examination of the evolution of the age structure of the population in 1990 and beyond reveals a dramatic rise (from 44 to 52 percent by 2010) in the share of individuals between the ages of 20 and 54. The equally dramatic fall (from 35 to 26 percent) in the share of the youth (0-14), combined with the increasing (from 4 to 6 percent) but still small share of the elderly (65 and over), point at a favourable dependency profile. This presents opportunities, as well as challenges to the government. If employment opportunities are forthcoming, a larger fraction of the population will be gainfully employed. The tax base will most likely expand, and as a consequence public savings will increase. Private savings might also increase. Even if the share of spending on education were to stay constant as a proportion of the GDP, a deepening of educational resources will take place. As a result, average quality of schooling is likely to improve. If adults have jobs, children will stay in school longer, and can look forward to better labour market opportunities. As employment expands the social security system will prosper, ensuring the elderly to generous retirement and health benefits. On the other hand, if demand falls short of the potential supply of able bodied individuals, at a minimum the productive potential of individuals will go unrealized. Worse, unprecedented levels of unemployment, poverty, and social unrest might lie ahead. Labour force participation rates that dipped under 50 percent in 2000 and beyond (80 percent for urban males, 18 percent for urban females), and the recent surge in unemployment, emerge as danger signs. Urban (un)employment: Between 1990 and 2000 the share of the employed in urban areas increased from 38 percent to 45 percent. In the meantime the share of the urban population increased from about 59 percent to 65 percent, and the rural-urban differential in the employment ratio widened. In urban areas the growth rate of employment during the pre-crisis period (1988-1998) was more than double the national average, approaching 3.2 percent per annum. This faster growth, coupled with the decline in the labour force participation rates of males residing in urban areas, kept urban unemployment rates in check. Between 1988 and 2000, the annual unemployment rate in urban areas of Turkey remained fairly stable for males and has been on a declining trend for females. However, the recent economic crisis has reversed these trends. Out of a labour force of nearly 11 million in 2001, the number of unemployed in urban areas exceeded 1.4 million, around one million of whom were males. The urban unemployment rate in 2001 was recorded as 16.8 percent for females, 10.3 for males, and 11.5 overall, having risen by nearly 3 percentage points from the previous year in each case. The situation worsened in 2002. Household Labour Force Surveys reveal that all, except people in their late careers were affected by the 2001 crisis. Those in mid career (ages 35-54) were hit worse than others as attested by the sharp increase in their share among the unemployed. This is a new and alarming phenomenon, one which requires immediate attention. 95 Historically subsidies to small farms have helped sustain a large rural workforce and kept urban unemployment at bay. With the removal of the subsidies, a new challenge emerges: How to keep rural-urban migration and urban unemployment under check. Innovative ways of solving urban infrastructure, housing and unemployment problems need to be sought. Changes in the gender composition of employment: Between 1988 and 1998, the share of females in total employment declined from 31 percent to 29 percent while the absolute numbers increased at an average annual rate of 0.76 percent. These figures conceal the changing role of women in the workforce. In fact, the share of females working in urban areas increased from 19 percent to 27 percent of total female employment. During this time the share of females among workers located in urban areas increased from 15 percent to 18 percent, and the urban female work force registered a growth rate of 4.8 percent per annum. Women turned to the marketplace in increasing numbers. Among female workers in urban areas, the share of regular and casual wage and salary workers increased from 75.1 percent to 82.3 percent. The share of agriculture in female employment declined from around 77 percent in 1990 to about 60 percent a decade later. Among females working in urban areas the share of agriculture dropped from 15 percent in 1990 to 9 percent, while the share of services increased from 39 percent to 64 percent. Manufacturing remained as the second most important sector of employment for urban females as its share decreased from 31 percent to 26 percent in total. Female concentration in services increased remarkably, as their employment share in the service sectors increased from 13 to 17 percent. In 1990 female workers accounted for about 28 percent of the work force in commercial services and 19 percent of those in community and personal services. Ten years later these figures were 30 percent and 27 percent respectively. The share of females in manufacturing remained stable, around 18-19 percent. Although they remained far from parity, females registered gains in white collar occupations. In ten years their share among scientific and technical personnel and professionals, rose from around 30 percent to 35, and among administrative personnel from around 32 percent to 37. Female labour force participation: The fact that a significant fraction of women stay out of the labour force during their productive years, is of concern. There are many reasons for thinking that this situation is not likely to last much longer. There is strong evidence that female participation rises sharply with education, and educational attainment is improving. Consequently an increasing fraction of the women in the young cohorts are expected to enter the labour market, and remain attached after getting married. The reduction in fertility and increased use of labour saving home appliances should reinforce this orientation. Finally, the increase in the minimum legal age for retirement is likely to prolong attachment (for males, as well as females). Why female labour force participation rates in urban areas have remained flat despite these favourable trends is a puzzle. Although a firm answer to the puzzle is yet to be found, some clues are available. Urban unemployment rates which were considerably higher for women than men up until the end of the 90s may have discouraged female participation. On a more fundamental level, the volatility in real income experienced by many households during the 90s is likely to have dampened the demand for many services which employ women. A similar argument applies to export oriented manufacturing jobs which are selective of women (especially in textiles and apparel). These are at the mercy of global exchange rate fluctuations. The data on hours of work suggests that the labour market in Turkey does not 96 offer the flexible working arrangements that have been credited for the dramatic rise in the fraction of females in the workforces of the OECD countries. Last but certainly not the least, the inadequacy of labour market legislation in addressing the needs of working women has been implicated as a potential explanation. Child labour: Based on the Household Labour Force Survey, in 1999 there were 1 million 635 thousand economically active children between the ages 6 and 17, amounting to 10.2 percent of those in this broader age group and around 7 percent of the labour force. While young children in the 6-11 age group accounted for 6.2 percent of the all working children, the shares of those in the 12-14 and 15-17 age groups were respectively 25 and 68.8 percent of the total. Agriculture by far is the most important sector at 57.6 percent, followed by 21.8 percent in industry, 10.4 percent in services, and 10.2 percent in trade. Children who make monetary contributions to the household budget are concentrated in households with the lowest income levels. Statistics reveal that incidence of child labour declined between 1994 and 1999. However, patterns of utilization of child labour suggest that a regression may have taken place following the crises. It is essential to administer the child module of the Household Labour Force Survey at regular intervals to keep track of the changes and to look into the problem of street children. Human capital: Having an educated and well-trained labour force emerges as a key factor for remaining competitive in the global economy. Although significant improvements have taken place, Turkey’s population is characterized by low levels of human capital (as measured by formal schooling). Taking the non-institutional civilian population, 15 years or over, as our base, as the 20th century came to a close, males on average had 6.8 years of education while females had 5.3. Starting with the 1998-99 school year, compulsory education has been extended to 8 years of basic education. Law no. 4702 enacted in 2001 provides the framework for extending basic education to 12 years. Since the 8+4 year structure calls for major curriculum reforms, its implementation has been delayed. Students completing 8 years of (what now constitutes) basic education have two schooling options: general secondary education, and vocational and technical education. Although development plans drafted in the 1970s and beyond placed the emphasis on vocational skills, and envisioned a share of 65 percent for the vocational and technical component of the secondary school system, this target was not reached. As of 2001, only one out of three students enrolled in secondary schools was receiving vocational education. By matching pre-market skills with the needs of the labour market, vocational school education is expected to help the graduates ease their way into the labour market. Statistics reveal that this is not happening – a significant majority continues with higher education. According to the 2001 Household Labour Force Survey, of the 22.3 million strong work force in Turkey, approximately 1.5 million (6.9 percent) were vocational and technical high school graduates. Yet in year 2000 alone, a total of 220 thousand students graduated from secondary vocational and technical education schools. This amounts to one potential labour market entrant for every 7 employed vocational or technical high school graduate. Employment would have had to expand by 1 percent in one year just to absorb all the vocational and technical school graduates. 97 In 2001 while the nationwide unemployment rate was 8.5 percent, it reached 13.3 percent among vocational and technical high school graduates, exceeding that for general high school graduates. This suggests that high unemployment rates for vocational high school graduates is discouraging participation, and encouraging further investments in education. Unfortunately we do not have a good understanding of the school choice decisions of secondary school candidates at this time. Also missing is information on the transition from school to work. In improving productivity, training obtained after completion of formal schooling, is probably as important as education. Although Turkey has a vast and comprehensive system of continuous (vocational and technical) training and adult education, it is difficult to gauge the effectiveness of the system. The existing structure needs to be re-evaluated to assess whether the delivery systems are able to respond to the needs of the new century. Need for research: As Turkey struggles with the challenges ahead, many open questions (only some which have been identified in this summary) have to be addressed. This calls for a concerted effort and the appropriate infrastructure. A component of the Employment and Training Project, implemented jointly by several State agencies between 1993 and 2000, titled Labour Market Information [Project] (LMIP) serves as an example of what can be achieved. This project was used to upgrade data collection and dissemination capabilities of the State Institute of Statistics. Notably the source used intensively for the purposes of this report, the Household Labour Force Survey data base maintained on the web page of the Institute, was put together as a result of LMIP. Between 1996 and 2000, the State Institute of Statistics published 31 volumes featuring 82 papers that address labour market issues and organized 12 seminars which served as platforms of discussion of the research findings. If it were not for this body of research, this report would have been full of gaping holes. Data dissemination: For research to be feasible, it is essential to have access to survey data which yield accurate indicators of labour market performance. Thanks to the efforts of the State Institute of Statistics, such data are collected and processed in a timely manner. However legal clauses restrict data dissemination. These should be revised immediately, so that survey data can be made available for the use of the broad community of domestic and international researchers, without violating the confidentiality of the individuals and firms that provide the information. The body of research produced under the Labour Market Information Project, which allowed a small group of investigators access to such data, provides a sense of what can be achieved. 98 10. Acknowledgments I am grateful to the team members for living up to my expectations. Dr. Hakan Ercan wrote the early drafts for Chapters 6 and 7, and Section 8.4. Dr. Cem Başlevent, Orgül Demet Öztürk, and Ufuk Akçiğit authored or co-authored eight topical reports which provided the detailed background information for Chapters 3-5 and Öztürk assembled the material for Annex 3. İŞKUR staff provided a rough draft for Sections 8.1-8.3. A report of this scope could not have been written without the input of many individuals outside the team. In particular Prof. Tuncer Bulutay, Prof. Meltem Dayıoğlu-Tayfur, Bülent Pir (Secretary General of the Turkish Confederation of Employers’ Associations), and Didem Sezer and Enver Taştı from the State Institute of Statistics made extremely useful comments and corrections. Prof. Aysıt Tansel helped resolve my concerns about the wage data used in Chapter 2. Ufuk Güven from the Treasury compiled the data and information on the social security system, and answered my seemingly endless questions. Murat Aydın, Meltem Demirci and Arzu Yörükoğlu-Eratak from the State Institute of Statistics provided expert and express response to my data and tabulation requests. In addition to providing detailed information on İŞKUR’s activities, Eser Kayadelen and Elif Şahin from İŞKUR were extremely helpful in locating documentation on Government legislation and related regulations. Gülçin Ataklı edited Annexes 2 and 3, and helped with the references. The draft report was presented and discussed at a seminar held in Ankara on February 17, 2002 and circulated widely by İŞKUR. In addition to invited representatives from the European Commission, European Training Foundation and social partners, around 200 government officials, researchers, and representatives from NGOs and foreign embassies attended the meeting. Many NGOs and State agencies provided written feedback. The list of NGOs includes TESK (Turkish Confederation of Tradesmen and Artisans), TİSK (Turkish Confederation of Employers’ Associations), TOBB (Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce and Bourses), and TÜRKİŞ (Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions). The list of State agencies includes Director’s Offices of the Research, Planning and Coordination Councils [Araştırma, Planlama ve Koordinasyon Kurulu Başkanlıkları] at the Ministries of Education, Finance, Interior, Health, General Directorate of the Status and Problems of Women [Kadın Statütüsü ve Sorunları Genel Müdürlüğü], Agency for Social Services and Protection of Children [Sosyal Hizmetler ve Çocuk Esirgeme Kurumu], European Union Coordination Department [Avrupa Birliği Koordinasyon Dairesi Başkanlığı] and General Directorate of Work [Çalışma Genel Müdürlüğü] at the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, General Directorate of External Relations and European Union Coordination [Dış İlişkiler ve AT Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlüğü] at the Ministry of Culture, Undersecretariat of the Treasury at the Prime Ministry [Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlığı], and unidentified offices from the Ministry of Tourism, and State Institute of Statistics. I would like to underscore my gratitude for the time and energy some of the respondents put into their written responses. Thanks to their dilligence, many factual mistakes (especially on the institutional chapters of the report) were corrected. Suggestions concerning the content of the report were incorporated to the degree possible, within the constraints imposed by the outline provided by the European Training Foundation, and the need to offer a balanced interpretation of the evidence. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the enormous contributions of Prof. Dr. Tuncer Bulutay to the subject matter, who assumed a key role in the Labour Market Information Project and lead the effort to put labor economics on the agenda of policy makers and researchers. İnsan Tunalı, June 27, 2003 99 11. References Nine special topical reports were written for the purposes of this study. 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Bulutay (Ed.), Türk İşgücü Piyasası ile İlgili Temel Gelişmeler, pp.85-128; Ankara: State Institute of Statistics, Printing Division World Bank (2000) Turkey: Economic reforms, living standards and social welfare study. PREM Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region (January 27). Zenginobuz, Ü. (1998) “Türkiye’de Emekten Alınan Vergilerin Refah Maliyeti ile İlgili Bazı Tahminler.” In T. Bulutay (Ed.), Türk İşgücü Piyasası ile İlgili Yükler ve Politikalar, pp.133-156. Ankara: State Institute of Statistics, Printing Division. 103 Annex 1. Supplementary Figures and Tables Numbers that follow the prefix ‘A’ identify the relevant section in the report. Explanation for Figures A.3.1.1-4, A.4.2.1-4, and A.5.3.1-4: Circles mark the data points obtained from the biannual HLFS. The curves (smooth splines) have been added to capture the trends. Starting with the upper-left panel and going rowwise, in the first three rows we keep track of the youngest age group 12-14 (agegroup=1214), then 5-yr age groups, and finally the oldest age group, 65 and above (agegroup=6599). The three panels in the last row are for aggregate age groups 12 and above, 15 and above, and 20 and above respectively. Explanation for Tables A.8.4.1-6: These have been prepared by the Population and Housing Statistics Division [Nüfus ve Mesken İstatistikleri Şubesi] of the SIS. 104 Figure A.3.1.1. Employment ratios by age group, rural females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 .8 Employment ratio .6 .4 .2 0 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 100 8990919293949596979899 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 Rural females, 1989-99 Figure A.3.1.2. Employment ratios by age group, urban females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 .2 .1 0 Employment ratio .2 .1 0 .2 .1 0 .2 .1 0 Urban females, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 105 Figure A.3.1.3. Employment ratios by age group, rural males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 1 Employment ratio .8 .6 .4 .2 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 100 8990919293949596979899 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 Rural males, 1989-99 Figure A.3.1.4. Employment ratios by age group, urban males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 1 .5 0 Employment ratio 1 .5 0 1 .5 0 1 .5 0 Urban males, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 106 Figure A.4.2.1. Labour force participation rates by age group, rural females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 .8 .6 .4 LFPR .2 0 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 100 8990919293949596979899 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 Rural females, 1989-99 Figure A.4.2.2. Labour force participation rates by age group, urban females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 .3 .2 .1 0 .3 .2 LFPR .1 0 .3 .2 .1 0 .3 .2 .1 0 Urban females, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 107 Figure A.4.2.3. Labour force participation rates by age group, rural males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 1 .8 .6 LFPR .4 .2 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 100 8990919293949596979899 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 Rural males, 1989-99 Figure A.4.2.4. Labour force participation rates by age group, urban males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 1 .5 0 1 LFPR .5 0 1 .5 0 1 .5 0 Urban males, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 108 Figure A.5.3.1. Unemployment rates by age group, rural females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 .15 .1 .05 0 Unemployment rate .15 .1 .05 0 .15 .1 .05 0 100 8990919293949596979899 .15 .1 .05 0 Rural females, 1989-99 Figure A.5.3.2. Unemployment rates by age group, urban females, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 .6 .4 .2 0 Unemployment rate .6 .4 .2 0 .6 .4 .2 0 .6 .4 .2 0 Urban females, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 109 Figure A.5.3.3. Unemployment rates by age group, rural males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 .2 .15 .1 .05 0 Unemployment rate .2 .15 .1 .05 0 .2 .15 .1 .05 0 100 8990919293949596979899 .2 .15 .1 .05 0 Rural males, 1989-99 Figure A.5.3.4. Unemployment rates by age group, urban males, 1989-99 agegroup==1214 agegroup==1519 agegroup==2024 agegroup==2529 agegroup==3034 agegroup==3539 agegroup==4044 agegroup==4549 agegroup==5054 agegroup==5559 agegroup==6064 agegroup==6599 agegroup==12990 agegroup==15990 agegroup==20990 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 100 8990919293949596979899 .3 .2 .1 0 Unemployment rate .3 .2 .1 0 .3 .2 .1 0 .3 .2 .1 0 Urban males, 1989-99 100 8990919293949596979899 110 Table A.8.4.1. Number of disabled individuals by age group, gender and type of disability, all Turkey Type of disability Age group Total Population Total number of disabled Disability of seeing Disability of hearing Disability of speaking Physical disability Mental disability Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Male 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 67 803 927 6 584 822 6 756 617 6 878 656 7 209 475 6 690 146 5 895 255 5 009 655 4 854 387 4 068 756 3 368 769 2 717 349 2 058 422 1 829 288 3 858 949 23 381 34 346 735 3 396 690 3 485 746 3 570 657 3 691 218 3 426 714 2 976 430 2 552 370 2 453 579 1 234 139 39 004 68 846 82 754 94 960 103 690 97 231 89 201 90 032 78 048 68 170 64 928 61 577 67 335 228 003 360 730 405 21 866 39 412 48 365 58 521 67 609 61 433 55 511 56 804 157 722 3 035 6 631 8 898 9 611 10 377 9 632 8 720 9 394 9 167 9 028 9 506 10 097 11 329 42 247 50 98 255 1 646 3 813 5 433 6 372 7 635 6 717 6 038 6 577 89 043 1 833 4 493 6 174 6 329 5 658 4 705 4 160 4 335 4 109 3 961 4 272 4 472 5 762 28 761 19 53 543 1 002 2 535 3 611 3 807 3 629 2 981 2 569 2 707 55 480 2 422 7 089 6 534 5 691 5 335 4 425 3 711 3 488 2 891 2 295 2 287 1 954 2 086 5 260 12 34 672 1 412 4 241 3 927 3 439 3 391 2 652 2 233 2 107 472 629 12 510 18 700 22 126 28 997 37 516 38 226 36 906 38 359 32 873 28 825 27 805 26 913 29 539 93 211 123 281 916 6 930 10 516 12 821 18 035 25 012 24 900 23 603 25 009 160 531 4 218 11 195 17 105 20 202 19 854 17 498 15 064 13 578 10 398 7 533 5 746 4 218 3 802 10 063 57 94 815 2 444 6 585 9 988 12 629 12 484 10 736 8 945 8 161 Other More than one disability Unknown 123 209 5 263 6 522 6 749 7 212 9 058 8 024 7 826 8 525 8 257 7 905 7 905 7 543 8 291 24 091 38 67 871 3 010 3 745 3 893 4 443 6 279 5 000 4 663 4 943 92 438 3 350 7 677 8 317 8 991 8 286 7 434 6 151 5 563 4 504 3 650 3 308 3 174 3 744 18 264 25 52 591 1 885 4 338 4 837 5 393 4 989 4 375 3 620 3 349 83 087 6 373 6 539 6 851 7 927 7 606 7 287 6 663 6 790 5 849 4 973 4 099 3 206 2 782 6 106 36 46 742 3 537 3 639 3 855 4 403 4 190 4 072 3 840 3 951 111 40-44 2 083 531 49 327 6 278 45-49 1 710 757 42 105 6 063 50-54 1 356 391 39 008 6 161 55-59 1 016 254 36 347 6 248 60-64 864 299 37 646 6 569 65+ 1 749 563 116 230 22 676 Unknown 12 536 221 29 Female 33 457 192 503 734 59 467 0-4 3 188 132 17 138 1 389 5-9 3 270 871 29 434 2 818 10-14 3 307 999 34 389 3 465 15-19 3 518 257 36 439 3 239 20-24 3 263 432 36 081 2 742 25-29 2 918 825 35 798 2 915 30-34 2 457 285 33 690 2 682 35-39 2 400 808 33 228 2 817 40-44 1 985 225 28 721 2 889 45-49 1 658 012 26 065 2 965 50-54 1 360 958 25 920 3 345 55-59 1 042 168 25 230 3 849 60-64 964 989 29 689 4 760 65+ 2 109 386 111 773 19 571 Unknown 10 845 139 21 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 2 628 2 428 2 687 2 797 3 466 16 686 10 35 500 831 1 958 2 563 2 522 2 029 1 724 1 591 1 628 1 481 1 533 1 585 1 675 2 296 12 075 9 1 829 1 492 1 514 1 391 1 471 3 565 8 20 808 1 010 2 848 2 607 2 252 1 944 1 773 1 478 1 381 1 062 803 773 563 615 1 695 4 21 595 18 532 17 126 16 016 16 404 45 339 78 190 713 5 580 8 184 9 305 10 962 12 504 13 326 13 303 13 350 11 278 10 293 10 679 10 897 13 135 47 872 45 6 322 4 419 3 220 2 381 1 971 4 490 40 65 716 1 774 4 610 7 117 7 573 7 370 6 762 6 119 5 417 4 076 3 114 2 526 1 837 1 831 5 573 17 4 602 4 162 4 031 3 817 4 048 11 218 17 55 338 2 253 2 777 2 856 2 769 2 779 3 024 3 163 3 582 3 655 3 743 3 874 3 726 4 243 12 873 21 2 699 2 108 1 924 1 832 2 171 9 053 18 39 847 1 465 3 339 3 480 3 598 3 297 3 059 2 531 2 214 1 805 1 542 1 384 1 342 1 573 9 211 7 3 374 2 901 2 345 1 865 1 546 3 203 21 36 345 2 836 2 900 2 996 3 524 3 416 3 215 2 823 2 839 2 475 2 072 1 754 1 341 1 236 2 903 15 112 Table A.8.4.2. Number of disabled individuals by age group, gender and type of disability, urban Turkey Type of disability Age group Total Population Total number of disabled Disability of seeing Disability of hearing Disability of speaking Physical disability Mental disability Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Male 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 172 156 3 746 195 3 874 330 3 961 757 4 330 747 4 213 438 3 745 403 3 174 031 3 062 896 2 559 694 2 067 148 1 569 755 1 100 806 911 882 1 841 510 12 564 20 398 786 1 930 537 1 996 261 2 064 371 2 265 614 2 168 387 1 887 707 1 605 993 1 535 231 677 282 22 721 39 464 46 508 53 152 59 596 55 505 50 949 51 684 44 917 38 691 35 167 31 911 33 729 113 100 188 401 347 12 798 22 645 27 595 33 346 39 324 35 390 31 955 32 831 81 089 1 693 3 724 4 903 5 450 6 021 5 602 5 082 5 396 5 111 4 975 4 915 5 039 5 254 17 898 26 50 609 931 2 119 3 002 3 654 4 435 3 958 3 539 3 801 47 968 1 104 2 775 3 824 3 890 3 509 2 833 2 387 2 478 2 423 2 224 2 270 2 229 2 682 13 329 11 28 634 593 1 549 2 255 2 403 2 270 1 806 1 494 1 550 28 082 1 239 3 923 3 394 2 912 2 705 2 287 1 779 1 750 1 421 1 148 1 092 919 976 2 533 4 17 828 733 2 386 2 090 1 777 1 773 1 398 1 123 1 076 264 146 7 167 10 266 11 869 16 059 21 987 22 521 21 989 23 058 19 665 16 801 15 297 14 050 15 017 48 338 62 158 120 3 933 5 786 7 031 10 328 14 982 14 821 14 098 15 136 82 462 2 649 6 668 9 795 11 183 10 500 8 593 7 149 6 231 4 854 3 449 2 546 1 911 1 653 5 254 27 48 768 1 551 3 899 5 801 6 959 6 611 5 347 4 301 3 770 Other More than one disability Unknown 75 756 3 299 3 964 4 069 4 249 5 756 5 111 5 074 5 541 5 376 5 120 4 897 4 435 4 830 14 009 26 42 123 1 895 2 303 2 386 2 722 4 011 3 208 3 063 3 228 47 465 1 893 4 272 4 644 4 582 4 282 3 807 3 193 2 872 2 326 1 838 1 664 1 526 1 861 8 693 12 26 955 1 094 2 413 2 728 2 770 2 580 2 224 1 900 1 773 50 314 3 677 3 872 4 010 4 827 4 836 4 751 4 296 4 358 3 741 3 136 2 486 1 802 1 456 3 046 20 28 310 2 068 2 190 2 302 2 733 2 662 2 628 2 437 2 497 113 40-44 1 305 933 28 605 3 557 45-49 1 057 477 24 054 3 360 50-54 796 035 21 219 3 199 55-59 550 964 18 730 3 049 60-64 427 641 18 554 2 977 65+ 799 948 54 179 9 012 Unknown 6 687 122 16 Female 19 773 370 275 935 30 480 0-4 1 815 658 9 923 762 5-9 1 878 069 16 819 1 605 10-14 1 897 386 18 913 1 901 15-19 2 065 133 19 806 1 796 20-24 2 045 051 20 272 1 586 25-29 1 857 696 20 115 1 644 30-34 1 568 038 18 994 1 543 35-39 1 527 665 18 853 1 595 40-44 1 253 761 16 312 1 554 45-49 1 009 671 14 637 1 615 50-54 773 720 13 948 1 716 55-59 549 842 13 181 1 990 60-64 484 241 15 175 2 277 65+ 1 041 562 58 921 8 886 Unknown 5 877 66 10 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 1 566 1 370 1 407 1 368 1 599 7 397 7 19 334 511 1 226 1 569 1 487 1 239 1 027 893 928 857 854 863 861 1 083 5 932 4 947 779 732 667 681 1 664 2 10 254 506 1 537 1 304 1 135 932 889 656 674 474 369 360 252 295 869 2 12 969 10 871 9 510 8 387 8 234 21 988 46 106 026 3 234 4 480 4 838 5 731 7 005 7 700 7 891 7 922 6 696 5 930 5 787 5 663 6 783 26 350 16 2 995 2 028 1 416 1 079 805 2 185 21 33 694 1 098 2 769 3 994 4 224 3 889 3 246 2 848 2 461 1 859 1 421 1 130 832 848 3 069 6 3 039 2 735 2 567 2 263 2 376 6 315 12 33 633 1 404 1 661 1 683 1 527 1 745 1 903 2 011 2 313 2 337 2 385 2 330 2 172 2 454 7 694 14 1 405 1 074 952 880 1 064 4 091 7 20 510 799 1 859 1 916 1 812 1 702 1 583 1 293 1 099 921 764 712 646 797 4 602 5 2 127 1 837 1 436 1 037 818 1 527 11 22 004 1 609 1 682 1 708 2 094 2 174 2 123 1 859 1 861 1 614 1 299 1 050 765 638 1 519 9 114 Table A.8.4.3. Number of disabled individuals by age group, gender and type of disability, rural Turkey Type of disability Age group Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Male 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 Total Population Total number of disabled Seeing disability Hearing disability Speaking disability Physical disability Mental disability 27 631 771 2 838 627 2 882 287 2 916 899 2 878 728 2 476 708 2 149 852 1 835 624 1 791 491 1 509 062 1 301 621 1 147 594 957 616 917 406 2 017 439 10 817 13 947 949 1 466 153 1 489 485 1 506 286 1 425 604 1 258 327 1 088 723 946 377 918 348 556 857 16 283 29 382 36 246 41 808 44 094 41 726 38 252 38 348 33 131 29 479 29 761 29 666 33 606 114 903 172 329 058 9 068 16 767 20 770 25 175 28 285 26 043 23 556 23 973 76 633 1 342 2 907 3 995 4 161 4 356 4 030 3 638 3 998 4 056 4 053 4 591 5 058 6 075 24 349 24 47 646 715 1 694 2 431 2 718 3 200 2 759 2 499 2 776 41 075 729 1 718 2 350 2 439 2 149 1 872 1 773 1 857 1 686 1 737 2 002 2 243 3 080 15 432 8 24 909 409 986 1 356 1 404 1 359 1 175 1 075 1 157 27 398 1 183 3 166 3 140 2 779 2 630 2 138 1 932 1 738 1 470 1 147 1 195 1 035 1 110 2 727 8 16 844 679 1 855 1 837 1 662 1 618 1 254 1 110 1 031 208 483 5 343 8 434 10 257 12 938 15 529 15 705 14 917 15 301 13 208 12 024 12 508 12 863 14 522 44 873 61 123 796 2 997 4 730 5 790 7 707 10 030 10 079 9 505 9 873 78 069 1 569 4 527 7 310 9 019 9 354 8 905 7 915 7 347 5 544 4 084 3 200 2 307 2 149 4 809 30 46 047 893 2 686 4 187 5 670 5 873 5 389 4 644 4 391 Other More than one disability Unknown 47 453 1 964 2 558 2 680 2 963 3 302 2 913 2 752 2 984 2 881 2 785 3 008 3 108 3 461 10 082 12 25 748 1 115 1 442 1 507 1 721 2 268 1 792 1 600 1 715 44 973 1 457 3 405 3 673 4 409 4 004 3 627 2 958 2 691 2 178 1 812 1 644 1 648 1 883 9 571 13 25 636 791 1 925 2 109 2 623 2 409 2 151 1 720 1 576 32 773 2 696 2 667 2 841 3 100 2 770 2 536 2 367 2 432 2 108 1 837 1 613 1 404 1 326 3 060 16 18 432 1 469 1 449 1 553 1 670 1 528 1 444 1 403 1 454 115 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Female 0-4 5-9 777 598 20 722 2 721 653 280 18 051 2 703 560 356 17 789 2 962 465 290 17 617 3 199 436 658 19 092 3 592 949 615 62 051 13 664 5 849 99 13 13 683 822 227 799 28 987 1 372 474 7 215 627 1 392 802 12 615 1 213 10-14 1 410 613 15 476 1 564 15-19 1 453 124 16 633 1 443 20-24 1 218 381 15 809 1 156 25-29 1 061 129 15 683 1 271 30-34 889 247 14 696 1 139 35-39 873 143 14 375 1 222 40-44 731 464 12 409 1 335 45-49 648 341 11 428 1 350 50-54 587 238 11 972 1 629 55-59 492 326 12 049 1 859 60-64 480 748 14 514 2 483 65+ 1 067 824 52 852 10 685 Unknown 4 968 73 11 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 1 062 1 058 1 280 1 429 1 867 9 289 3 16 166 320 732 994 1 035 790 697 698 700 624 679 722 814 1 213 6 143 5 882 713 782 724 790 1 901 6 10 554 504 1 311 1 303 1 117 1 012 884 822 707 588 434 413 311 320 826 2 8 626 7 661 7 616 7 629 8 170 23 351 32 84 687 2 346 3 704 4 467 5 231 5 499 5 626 5 412 5 428 4 582 4 363 4 892 5 234 6 352 21 522 29 3 327 2 391 1 804 1 302 1 166 2 305 19 32 022 676 1 841 3 123 3 349 3 481 3 516 3 271 2 956 2 217 1 693 1 396 1 005 983 2 504 11 1 563 1 427 1 464 1 554 1 672 4 903 5 21 705 849 1 116 1 173 1 242 1 034 1 121 1 152 1 269 1 318 1 358 1 544 1 554 1 789 5 179 7 1 294 1 034 972 952 1 107 4 962 11 19 337 666 1 480 1 564 1 786 1 595 1 476 1 238 1 115 884 778 672 696 776 4 609 2 1 247 1 064 909 828 728 1 676 10 14 341 1 227 1 218 1 288 1 430 1 242 1 092 964 978 861 773 704 576 598 1 384 6 116 Table A.8.4.4. Population shares of individuals with disabilities broken down by type of disability, by age group and gender, all Turkey Share of Share of disability type in age group (row %) age group in total Seeing Hearing Speaking Physical Mental Multiple Age group (column %) disability disability disability disability disability Other disability Unknown Total 1.8 12.8 7.2 0-4 0.6 7.8 4.7 5-9 1.0 9.6 6.5 10-14 1.2 10.8 7.5 15-19 1.3 10.1 6.7 20-24 1.5 10.0 5.5 25-29 1.6 9.9 4.8 30-34 1.8 9.8 4.7 35-39 1.9 10.4 4.8 40-44 1.9 11.7 5.3 45-49 2.0 13.2 5.8 50-54 2.4 14.6 6.6 55-59 3.0 16.4 7.3 60-64 3.7 16.8 8.6 65+ 5.9 18.5 12.6 Unknown 1.5 13.9 5.3 Male 2.1 13.5 7.3 0-4 0.6 7.5 4.6 5-9 1.1 9.7 6.4 10-14 1.4 11.2 7.5 15-19 1.6 10.9 6.5 20-24 2.0 11.3 5.4 25-29 2.1 10.9 4.9 30-34 2.2 10.9 4.6 35-39 2.3 11.6 4.8 40-44 2.4 12.7 5.3 45-49 2.5 14.4 5.8 50-54 2.9 15.8 6.9 55-59 3.6 17.2 7.7 60-64 4.4 17.4 9.2 65+ 6.6 19.5 14.4 Unknown 1.8 13.1 4.5 Female 1.5 11.8 7.0 0-4 0.5 8.1 4.8 5-9 0.9 9.6 6.7 10-14 1.0 10.1 7.5 15-19 1.0 8.9 6.9 20-24 1.1 7.6 5.6 25-29 1.2 8.1 4.8 30-34 1.4 8.0 4.7 35-39 1.4 8.5 4.9 40-44 1.4 10.1 5.2 45-49 1.6 11.4 5.9 50-54 1.9 12.9 6.1 55-59 2.4 15.3 6.6 60-64 3.1 16.0 7.7 65+ 5.3 17.5 10.8 Unknown 1.3 15.1 6.5 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 4.5 6.2 10.3 7.9 6.0 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.3 3.3 4.7 6.5 10.8 8.1 5.9 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.1 3.6 4.1 5.9 9.7 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.1 1.5 2.9 38.3 32.1 27.2 26.7 30.5 36.2 39.3 41.4 42.6 42.1 42.3 42.8 43.7 43.9 40.9 34.2 38.6 31.7 26.7 26.5 30.8 37.0 40.5 42.5 44.0 43.8 44.0 43.9 44.1 43.6 39.0 35.3 37.9 32.6 27.8 27.1 30.1 34.7 37.2 39.5 40.2 39.3 39.5 41.2 43.2 44.2 42.8 32.4 13.0 10.8 16.3 20.7 21.3 19.1 18.0 16.9 15.1 13.3 11.1 8.8 6.8 5.6 4.4 15.8 13.0 11.2 16.7 20.7 21.6 18.5 17.5 16.1 14.4 12.8 10.5 8.3 6.6 5.2 3.9 18.1 13.0 10.4 15.7 20.7 20.8 20.4 18.9 18.2 16.3 14.2 11.9 9.7 7.3 6.2 5.0 12.2 10.0 13.5 9.5 8.2 7.6 8.7 8.3 8.8 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.2 12.2 12.3 10.6 10.6 9.3 13.8 9.5 8.0 7.6 9.3 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.5 10.8 9.7 7.7 11.0 13.1 9.4 8.3 7.6 7.7 8.4 9.4 10.8 12.7 14.4 14.9 14.8 14.3 11.5 15.1 7.5 8.6 11.2 10.1 9.5 8.0 7.6 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.6 8.0 6.9 7.2 8.6 11.0 10.0 9.2 7.4 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.8 7.8 8.1 7.9 8.5 11.3 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.5 7.5 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 8.2 5.0 6.7 16.3 9.5 8.3 8.3 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 6.3 5.2 4.1 2.7 10.0 6.4 16.2 9.2 8.0 7.5 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.1 4.1 2.8 9.5 7.2 16.5 9.9 8.7 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.6 7.9 6.8 5.3 4.2 2.6 10.8 117 Table A.8.4.5. Population shares of individuals with disabilities broken down by type of disability, by age group and gender, urban Turkey Age group Share of age group in total (column %) Share of disability type in age group (row %) Seeing disability Hearing disability Speaking disability Physical disability Mental disability Other Multiple disability Unknown Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Male 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Female 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 1.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.7 6.1 1.5 2.0 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.4 4.3 6.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 12.0 7.5 9.4 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.9 14.0 15.8 15.6 15.8 13.8 12.6 7.3 9.4 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.6 12.4 14.0 15.1 16.3 16.0 16.6 13.1 11.0 7.7 9.5 10.1 9.1 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.5 9.5 7.1 4.9 7.0 8.2 7.3 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.0 8.0 11.8 5.9 7.1 4.6 6.8 8.2 7.2 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.7 5.5 5.7 6.6 7.3 8.6 13.7 5.7 7.0 5.1 7.3 8.3 7.5 6.1 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 4.1 5.5 9.9 7.3 5.5 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.1 4.4 5.7 10.5 7.6 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.1 1.6 3.7 5.1 9.1 6.9 5.7 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 2.9 39.0 31.5 26.0 25.5 30.2 36.9 40.6 43.2 44.6 43.8 43.4 43.5 44.0 44.5 42.7 33.0 39.4 30.7 25.6 25.5 31.0 38.1 41.9 44.1 46.1 45.3 45.2 44.8 44.8 44.4 40.6 37.7 38.4 32.6 26.6 25.6 28.9 34.6 38.3 41.5 42.0 41.0 12.2 11.7 16.9 21.1 21.0 17.6 15.5 14.0 12.1 10.8 8.9 7.2 6.0 4.9 4.6 14.4 12.2 12.1 17.2 21.0 20.9 16.8 15.1 13.5 11.5 10.5 8.4 6.7 5.8 4.3 4.0 17.2 12.2 11.1 16.5 21.1 21.3 19.2 16.1 15.0 13.1 11.4 11.2 14.5 10.0 8.7 8.0 9.7 9.2 10.0 10.7 12.0 13.2 13.9 13.9 14.3 12.4 13.8 10.5 14.8 10.2 8.6 8.2 10.2 9.1 9.6 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.1 12.8 11.7 9.8 12.2 14.1 9.9 8.9 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.6 12.3 14.3 7.0 8.3 10.8 10.0 8.6 7.2 6.9 6.3 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.5 7.7 6.4 6.7 8.5 10.7 9.9 8.3 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.7 7.6 5.7 7.4 8.1 11.1 10.1 9.1 8.4 7.9 6.8 5.8 5.6 7.4 16.2 9.8 8.6 9.1 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.1 5.6 4.3 2.7 10.6 7.1 16.2 9.7 8.3 8.2 6.8 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.5 4.4 2.8 9.0 8.0 16.2 10.0 9.0 10.6 10.7 10.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 118 45-49 1.4 11.0 5.8 50-54 1.8 12.3 6.2 55-59 2.4 15.1 6.5 60-64 3.1 15.0 7.1 65+ 5.7 15.1 10.1 Unknown 1.1 15.2 6.1 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 3.0 40.5 41.5 43.0 44.7 44.7 24.2 9.7 8.1 6.3 5.6 5.2 9.1 16.3 16.7 16.5 16.2 13.1 21.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.3 7.8 7.6 8.9 7.5 5.8 4.2 2.6 13.6 119 Table A.8.4.6. Population shares of individuals with disabilities broken down by type of disability, by age group and gender, rural Turkey Age group Share of age group in total (column %) Share of disability type in age group (row %) Seeing disability Hearing disability Speaking disability Physical disability Mental disability Other Multiple disability Unknown Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Male 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Unknown Female 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 2.0 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.7 5.7 1.6 2.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.4 6.5 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 13.8 8.2 9.9 11.0 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 10.4 12.2 13.7 15.4 17.0 18.1 21.2 14.0 14.5 7.9 10.1 11.7 10.8 11.3 10.6 10.6 11.6 13.1 15.0 16.7 18.2 18.8 22.0 13.1 12.7 8.7 9.6 10.1 8.7 7.3 8.1 7.8 8.5 7.4 4.5 5.8 6.5 5.8 4.9 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.6 9.2 13.4 4.7 7.6 4.5 5.9 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.9 7.2 8.1 9.8 15.0 3.0 7.1 4.4 5.8 6.4 6.2 5.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 7.3 10.8 8.7 6.6 6.0 5.1 5.1 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.3 2.4 4.7 5.1 7.5 11.1 8.8 6.6 5.7 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.1 6.1 4.6 7.0 10.4 8.4 6.7 6.4 5.6 5.6 4.9 37.4 32.8 28.7 28.3 30.9 35.2 37.6 39.0 39.9 39.9 40.8 42.0 43.4 43.2 39.1 35.5 37.6 33.1 28.2 27.9 30.6 35.5 38.7 40.4 41.2 41.6 42.4 42.8 43.3 42.8 37.6 32.3 37.2 32.5 29.4 28.9 31.4 34.8 35.9 36.8 37.8 14.0 9.6 15.4 20.2 21.6 21.2 21.3 20.7 19.2 16.7 13.9 10.8 7.8 6.4 4.2 17.4 14.0 9.8 16.0 20.2 22.5 20.8 20.7 19.7 18.3 16.1 13.2 10.1 7.4 6.1 3.7 19.2 14.1 9.4 14.6 20.2 20.1 22.0 22.4 22.3 20.6 8.5 12.1 8.7 7.4 7.1 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.8 8.7 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.3 8.8 7.0 7.8 12.3 8.6 7.3 6.8 8.0 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.8 8.8 7.9 5.1 9.5 11.8 8.8 7.6 7.5 6.5 7.1 7.8 8.8 8.1 8.9 11.6 10.1 10.5 9.1 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.6 5.6 8.3 7.6 7.8 8.7 11.5 10.2 10.4 8.5 8.3 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 8.0 11.1 8.5 9.2 11.7 10.1 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.4 7.8 5.9 16.6 9.1 7.8 7.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 4.7 3.9 2.7 9.3 5.6 16.2 8.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.1 4.7 3.8 2.7 10.1 6.3 17.0 9.7 8.3 8.6 7.9 7.0 6.6 6.8 120 40-44 1.7 10.8 5.0 45-49 1.8 11.8 5.9 50-54 2.0 13.6 6.0 55-59 2.4 15.4 6.8 60-64 3.0 17.1 8.4 65+ 4.9 20.2 11.6 Unknown 1.5 15.1 6.8 Source: SIS, 2000 General Population Census. 4.7 3.8 3.4 2.6 2.2 1.6 2.7 36.9 38.2 40.9 43.4 43.8 40.7 39.7 17.9 14.8 11.7 8.3 6.8 4.7 15.1 10.6 11.9 12.9 12.9 12.3 9.8 9.6 7.1 6.8 5.6 5.8 5.3 8.7 2.7 6.9 6.8 5.9 4.8 4.1 2.6 8.2 121 Annex 2. Glossary of Acronyms and Key Terms A. ATR Average Tax Rate (Ortalama Vergi Oranı) AKP Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party) B. BK Bağ-Kur; public social security organization for the self-employed C. CBA Collective Bargaining Agreement (Toplu İş Sözleşmesi) CEE Central Entrance Exam (Öğrenci Seçme Sınavı) CHP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican Peoples’ Party) CPI Consumer Price Index (Tüketici Fiyatları Endeksi) D. DIE Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü (State Institute of Statistics) DİSK Devrimci İşçi Sendikaları Konfederasyonu (The Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions) E. EA Economic Activity (İş kolu) ES Emekli Sandığı (Pension Fund) ETF European Training Foundation (Avrupa Eğitim Vakfı) EU European Union (Avrupa Birliği) EU15 15 countries that belong to the European Union G. GD General Directorate (Genel Müdürlük) GDP Gross Domestic Product (Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla) GDSPW General Directorate of the Status and Problems of Women (Kadın Statütüsü ve Sorunları Genel Müdürlüğü) GNP Gross National Product (Gayrı Safi Milli Hasıla) 122 H. HAKİŞ Hak İş Sendikası; one of three major employee union confederations HCES Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (Hanehalkı Tüketim Harcamaları Anketi) HEC Higher Education Council (Yüksek Öğretim Kurumu) HIDS Household Income Distribution Survey (Hanehalkı Gelir Dağılımı Anketi) HIPS Hacettepe Instititute of Population Studies (Hacettepe Üniversitesi Nüfus Etüdleri Enstitüsü) HLFS Household Labor Force Survey (Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi) I. ILO International Labor Organization (Uluslararası İşgücü Organizasyonu) IMF International Monetary Fund (Uluslararası Para Fonu) İ. İİBK İş ve İşçi Bulma Kurumu (Employment Brokerage Agency) İNİŞEV İnşaat İşçileri Eğitim Vakfı İNTES Türkiye İnşaat Sanayicileri İşveren Sendikası (Turkish Employers’ Association of Construction Industries) İŞKUR Türkiye İş Kurumu (Employment Agency) K. KESK Kamu Emekçileri Sendikaları Konfederayonu (Confederation of Public Employee Unions) KOSGEB Küçük ve Orta Ölçekli Sanayi Geliştirme ve Destekleme İdaresi Başkanlığı (The Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Support Administration Directorate) L. LFPR Labor Force Participation Rate (İşgücü Katılım Oranı) LMIP Labor Market Information Project (İşgücü Piyasası Bilgilendirme Projesi) M. METARGEM Meslekî ve Teknik Eğitim Araştırma ve Geliştirme Merkezi (Vocational and Technical Education Research and Development Centre) MESS Metal Sanayicileri Sendikası (Turkish Employers’ Association of Metal Industries) 123 MEV MESS Eğitim Vakfı (MESS Training Foundation) MLSS Ministry of Labour and Social Security (Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı) MONE Ministry of National Education (Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı) N. NFE&T Non-Formal Education and Training (Yaygın Öğretim ve Eğitim) NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations (Sivil Toplum Örgütleri) O. OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı) ÖSYM Öğrenci Seçme Yerleştirme Merkezi (Student Selection and Placement Center) P. PA Privatization Administration (Özelleştirme Dairesi Başkanlığı) PES Public Employment Services (Devlet İstihdam Hizmetleri) PIAL Privatization Implementation Assistance and Social Safety Net Project (Özelleştirme ve Sosyal Güvenlik Ağı) PSSP Privatization Social Support Project (Özelleştirme Sosyal Destek Kredisi) R. rural Location of residence has population below 20,000 S. SEE State-owned Economic Enterprises (Kamu İktisadi Teşekkülü) SIS State Institute of Statistics (Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü); official data collection agency in Turkey SMEs Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (Küçük ve Orta Büyüklükteki İşletmeler) SPD State Personnel Department (Devlet Personel Başkanlığı) SPO State Planning Organization (Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı) SSK Sosyal Sigortalar Kurumu (Social Insurance Organization) SSO Social Security Organization (Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu) STC Supra Training Centers (İşletmelerüstü Eğitim Merkezleri) 124 T. TEKİŞ Tüm Özel Eğitim Kurumları İşveren Sendikasi (All Private Training Institutions Employers Union) TESK Türkiye Esnaf ve Sanatkarlar Konfederasyonu (Turkish Confederation of Tradesmen and Artisans) TFR Total Fertility Rate (Toplam Doğurganlık Oranı) THS Technical High Schools (Teknik Liseler) TİSK Türkiye İşveren Sendikaları Konfederasyonu (The Turkish Confederation of Employers’ Associations) TOBB Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birliği (Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce and Bourses) TUREM Turizm Eğitim Merkezleri (Tourism Training Centers) TÜRKİŞ Türkiye İşçi Sendikaları Konfederasyonu (The Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions) TÜSİAD Türk Sanayicileri ve İşadamları Derneği (Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen Association) TÜTSİS Türkiye Tekstil İşverenleri Sendikası (Turkish Textile Employers’ Association) TZOB Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği (Turkish Union of Chambers of Organization) U. UNDP United Nations Development Programme (Birleşmiş Milletler Kalkınma Programı) urban Location of residence has population of 20,000 or more UI Unemployment Insurance (İşsizlik Sigortası) V. VAT Value Added Tax (Katma Değer Vergisi) VE&T Vocational Education and Training Council (Meslek Eğitim Kurulu) VHS Vocational High Schools (Meslek Liseleri) VTC Vocational Training Centers (Meslek Eğitim Merkezleri) 125 Y. YOTEM Yetişkinler Otelcilik ve Turizm Eğitim Merkezleri (Hotel and Tourism Training Centers for Adults) YÖK Yüksek Öğretim Kurumu (Higher Education Council) YURTKUR Kredi ve Yurtlar Kurumu (Loan and Dorm Agency); oversees allocation of student loans and dormitories W. WPI Wholesale Price Index (Üretici Fiyat Endeksi)