September 2008RAMP Magazine (No 4)

L O N G K I S S G O O D BY E
148
the
future
for classic
cars:
bright or
bleak?
text Simon Kidston · fotos Kidston SA
P
erhaps because car collecting has never been a rational hobby, it’s a question you very rarely hear asked. Indeed, with
the price of oil soaring over $ 120 per barrel and no relief in
sight, it’s probably rational to ask what the future holds for indeed
any cars. In my experience, buyers are far more interested in peer
reaction when they show off their new, zillion dollar purchase at an
event than the distance it will cover between refills of 98 octane.
That’s because classic cars no more serve a practical purpose than
Old Master paintings, originally created to provide a pleasing wall
149
KOLUMNE
»Will we be able to drive our cars in the future?«, is a question
many logically ask. When a client pays the same price as a London
mansion to buy an iconic Ferrari 250 GTO, what goes through his
mind? Even to the wealthiest collector, that’s a not insignificant
sum. Apart from thoughts like »Is it worth 20 Ferrari Enzos?«
or »Is it really five times better to drive than an Aston Martin
DB4GT Zagato?«. What happens if one day the use of any car over
a certain age is banned? What happens if fuel eventually runs
out altogether?
– All economic factors
– New opportunities for some cars (races, rallies, concours etc.)
– Generation factors
– Fashion
– Legislation and other influences
Which of these are recurring, and which new factors should we
consider when trying to predict tomorrow’s collecting trends?
I don’t have a crystal ball, but offer the following observations
on future trends:
Economic factors will still play a part. Whilst none of us can predict
them, they determine how much capital even wealthy collectors
have to spend, or want to spend, on their hobby. For example, no
matter how ›recession proof‹ a collector, if he feels he is competing against 10 other possible buyers rather than 100, his mental
spending limit will reflect that.
Exchange rates also affect the movement of cars between countries. For example, if the Yen falls, the Japanese have less spending power, so you lose potential buyers for the Cisitalias, Abarths
and ›Etceterini‹ which they favour. When interest rates skyrocketed in 1992, demand in the UK for classic cars was hit hard.
The introduction of the European Union in 1993 and the Euro
a decade later has helped even out differences in the values of
classic cars within Europe. With the emergence of new economic powers, can we expect their tastes to mirror ours? Definitely
not. When I visited Moscow to talk about classic Ferraris, most
people seemed far more interested in old Mercedes. It took me a
while to figure out that the Russians had seen more German culture than Italian and identified more with a 600 limousine than
something Latin with distant links to a Lada (and comparable
build quality).
Sure, there may be a day when classic cars are no longer useable
on the public road, but people have worked hard for their rewards
and want to enjoy them here and now.
That’s why I don’t believe that current issues like the price of fuel
will make much of a difference to serious collectors. Consider
also that a recent British research report discovered that of the
400,000 roadworthy historic cars they surveyed, over 65 % drove
less than 1,500 km per year, and 20 % traveled less than 400 km.
And that in a country where eccentrics actually enjoy driving
in typical British weather! Given sparing and careful use, not
only is fuel consumption far down most owner’s list of considerations, it also means that the environmental impact of classic cars is, in overall terms, tiny. For example, that same British
survey showed that classic cars represent less than 0.07 % of the
total miles covered by all motor vehicles, and make up 0.08 % of
the cars on the roads. Politicians please note …
Let’s assume the future of our hobby is secure, and ask just how
tastes are likely to evolve.
To predict the future, the past is a useful guide. What has influenced changes in collecting trends in the past?
A final thought on ›boom and bust‹: no market follows a straight
line. Even the relatively young classic car market has seen its
share of cycles, and there will be doubtless many more. These
trends tend to be general and not type or model specific.
Opportunities for the use of certain models are a factor which
will shape our collecting tastes. More easily predictable, they can
even be influenced by collectors with time and money to spare.
For example, a successful new race series can significantly improve the market for a potential front running model. Group C
car races have now renewed interest in this genre; likewise later
model Formula One cars. I see further growth here as track events
multiply, whereas it could be argued that new events for formal
cars like a Rolls-Royce Phantom II limousine are less likely.
So: will historic rallying take off? Group B cars are rare, fast and
historically interesting, but do they have that ›wow‹ factor? And
the originality issues: how many have been re-shelled? If the 1980s
style came back into fashion, would it be considered classic rather
than passé? What about new ›one model‹ events, like the 8C Alfa
tour or the Ferrari GTO rally? Can we expect a McLaren F1 rally;
would it increase demand for the model? Will concours events for
decoration, but now more likely to serve as an investment hidden
in a bank vault. Classic cars are, after all, obsolete tech­nology, and
what weighed on the minds of their original purchasers has been
replaced by very different criteria for collectors today.
Consider for a moment the story of a famous French gentleman
pilote on his way back to Paris at the wheel of his Ferrari 250 GTO,
in which he had just won a race. It was raining and, the GTO was
making its drivers life as miserable as possible: water leaking in
to the cabin through every body joint, the windows fogged up, the
noise inside the closed car with a 3 litre V12 and no soundproofing. When you see it in this context, you understand why, upon arrival in Paris, the owner drove to a Ford showroom and exchanged
the GTO for a shiny new Mustang …
The practicality which made some cars popular when new, and
the impracticality which made others sales flops, have almost
become inverted. How often have you seen a car advertised as »one
of just xxx built«? Have you considered why? Take the example
of the 1967 Ferrari 365 California (14 built): one American buyer
remarked that it handled as badly as his wife’s Ford Mustang (yet
cost 6 times as much). Today, that Ferrari sells for a 7 figure sum,
lauded as ›limited edition luxury‹. And yet the Ferrari 250 GTE,
the firm’s first four seater and the model that set it on a solid
financial footing, is now looked down upon by collectors as a
model ›with two seats too many‹.
Sure, collectors today like to use their cars, but that’s not the sole
factor. The modern buyer considers the car’s beauty, prestige,
rarity, history and not least, its investment potential.
L O N G K I S S G O O D BY E
150
151
KOLUMNE
Die Abgeltungsteuer kommt.
Handeln Sie jetzt!
e
ertifiziert
Z
ität!*
l
a
u
q
s
g
n
Beratu
visually stunning but not always dynamically exciting cars increase in popularity? My answer to all these questions is »yes«.
Today’s buyers are also tomorrow’s sellers. Early collectors had
the cars of their father’s generation and their own youth: ›veterans‹. In the 1950-1960s, collectors began taking an interest in
pre-WW2 cars. The 1970s saw post-war cars emerging – consider
the soaring price of Jaguar D Types and AC Cobras. The 1980s
saw this trend continue, with the popularity of many pre-war
cars slowing or declining. The 1980s also saw the appearance of
the first ›instant‹ collectibles such as the Ferrari 288 GTO and
Porsche 959 – still worth close to (or more than) their launch
prices some 20 years later. In the meantime, the majority of new
collections being built were biased strongly towards post-war
cars and, in particular, Ferrari.
With a new generation of entrepreneurs, we see ever younger
buyers today who are interested mainly in 1960s-1980s sports
and racing cars. The iconic supercharged Mercedes-Benz and
Duesenbergs of the pre-war era should always command respect
amongst experienced collectors, but the young novice buyers of
today favour cars to which they aspired when young, or which
belong to a period they can relate to.
Fashion also contributes to collecting tastes. A popular movie
may trigger a temporary, or longer lasting demand for a particular model style car (consider, I’m afraid, the popularity of the
Great Gatsby-esque Excalibur in the 1970s, the plethora of white
Ferrari Testarossas sold during the airing of the Miami Vice TV
show, and the enduring popularity of ›silver birch‹ Aston Martin
DB5s 40 years after Aston lent a tired development hack to the
producers of ›Goldfinger‹). On a humble level, a recent British
TV series set in the early 1980s saw a bad tempered detective
screeching around in a bright red Audi Quattro. You may smile,
but it’s done wonders for their value in the UK.
I use ›one-upmanship‹ as a wide term to explain the motivation,
if subliminal, of a certain type of new, ultra wealthy buyers for
chasing certain ›status symbol‹ models. And finally, jumping on
the bandwagon might be used to describe a buyer following collecting trends with little original thought or interpretation.
It’s difficult to predict what the next collecting fashion might be,
but new buyers in most areas, whether it’s clothing, jewelry, art
or real estate, go for familiar names. Ferrari is a good example of
this in car collecting terms; a more generalized and vivid illustration might be a newly wealthy Russian, dressed fully in one
designer label. The Ferrari image is pure Italian culture, which
sells around the world because most people have had some exposure to it, whether via food, film, music, fashion, art or even
just Italian immigration into their country. What’s more, Ferrari
speculators/collectors take comfort in the fact that they own a
very liquid asset which they can offload easily.
Car collecting is a young field compared to art and most other
domains where people accumulate for a variety of reasons. Even in
mature markets, however, tastes and standards are ever changing
and evolving, and there will always be exceptions to the market
norm. At the turn of the 21st century we see a certain style of car,
Baden-Württembergische Bank
Am 1. Januar 2009 kommt die Abgeltungsteuer. Handeln Sie jetzt und profitieren Sie von der
persönlichen, TÜV-zertifizierten Kundenberatung der BW-Bank*. Alle Infos unter 0711 124-45014,
www.bw-bank.de/abgeltungsteuer oder in einer BW-Bank-Filiale ganz in Ihrer Nähe.
Baden-Württembergische Bank. Nah dran.
*Freiwillige Prüfung der Beratungsqualität durch den TÜV SÜD.
L O N G K I S S G O O D BY E
152
153
If you’re asking, these are my top ten buys now:
· Porsche 917K (price /life insurance?).
· Porsche 959 (price of maintenance bills /speeding tickets?)
· Lamborghini Countach LP400 (the definitive supercar for my
generation)
ANZEIGE
SICHER DURCH
DIE ZWEITE
JAHRESHÄLFTE TROTZ SCHEINBAR MILDERER WINTER SIND WINTERREIFEN UNERLÄSSLICH
· Ferrari 288GTO (one of the greats of its era; just gets better
looking with age)
· Jaguar D-Type/XKSS (Steve McQueen drove one!)
· Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing (in 100 years, people will
still recognize it)
and certain marques in the forefront of most collectors’ fancy.
But if we look back to the art world 100 years ago, it looked very
different to today. It stands to reason that 100 years on, when
future generations of motoring enthusiasts will have taken over
the objects of our affection, popular tastes will have evolved too. The
motor car itself will also have almost doubled in age, and during
those next 100 years, a vast array of new models and even marques
will have come and gone, some achieving classic status. Collections
should have a theme, even if it is simply the owner’s personality, but
they should also change with the times, reflecting history as it is
written, if they wish to stay relevant in a changing world.
Die Tage werden kürzer – die Winterreifensaison steht bald schon
wieder vor der Tür. Bei den milden Temperaturen der vergangenen
Winter kein Thema? Falsch. In der zweiten Hälfte des Jahres muss man
· Any late 1970s Formula 1 car (usually ›more bang for your
in Deutschland jederzeit mit Glätte rechnen, wie eine aktuell von Dunlop
buck‹, and collectors are now more confident about driving,
maintaining and racing these)
weniger Schnee, dennoch sind die Temperaturen nach wie vor so nied-
· Bentley Continental T (the late 1990s equivalent of the clas-
sic 1950s R-type Continental, but with twice the power and
lots of attitude)
· Alfa Romeo 8C 2300 Monza (the most expensive car on this
list and oddly one of the most useable – drive to dinner or on
the race track, it does everything you need whilst looking and
sounding favolosa)
· Bugatti Veyron (this will be a controversial choice but when
you’re long gone, your name will remain in the history books
as the first buyer of one of the most truly memorable/insane
motor cars ever made)
in Auftrag gegebene Wetterstudie belegt. Zwar fiel in den letzten Jahren
Ob Nässe, Frost
oder Schnee:
Nur Winterreifen
ermöglichen
optimale
Fahrsicherheit
auf winterlichen
Fahrbahnen.
rig, dass Sommerreifen nicht die geeignete Wahl für eine sichere Fahrt
sind. In Nürnberg beispielsweise kann sich schon Mitte September die
Luft unter den Gefrierpunkt abkühlen. Überwiegend tritt der erste Frost
Anfang Oktober auf. „Trotz des Klimawandels wird uns auch in den kommenden Wintern Frost, Eis und Glätte fast täglich beschäftigen. In Städten
wie Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg und Hannover besteht an mehr als 71 Tagen
Optimal auf winterlichen Straßen – Touch Technology
Um ein perfektes Fahrerlebnis bei jeder Wetterbedingung zu
ermöglichen, hat Dunlop Touch Technology entwickelt: So hat
das Fahrzeug den bestmöglichen Grip – und der Fahrer kann
jederzeit auf den Zustand der Straße optimal reagieren.
Glättegefahr“, erklärt Thomas Ranft, verantwortlich für die Wetterstudie.
„Frost birgt dabei ein besonderes Sicherheitsrisiko, weil er morgens
Hinter dem Touch Technology Konzept stehen eine Reihe
auftritt, wenn die Menschen zur Arbeit fahren. Jeder Tag ohne Winterreifen
spezieller Produkteigenschaften und Entwicklungsaktivitäten,
um dem Fahrer die bestmögliche Rückmeldung von seinen
Reifen zu geben:
ist in dieser Jahreszeit daher einer zu viel.“
In Deutschland besteht zwar keine Winterreifenpflicht, doch die Straßenverkehrsordnung verlangt eine den Wetterverhältnissen angepasste Bereifung. Das heißt: Wer auf winterlichen Straßen mit Sommerreifen unterwegs
ist, muss mit einem Bußgeld von 20 Euro rechnen. Wird man mit falscher
Bereifung in einen Unfall verwickelt, kann der Versicherer die Schadensabwicklung gegebenenfalls ablehnen. Wissen sollte man: „Sommer“-Gummimischungen verhärten bereits bei niedrigen Plusgraden – die Haftung auf der
Straße reduziert sich damit spürbar. Bei Nässe, Eis und Schnee, also bei
Witterungsbedingungen, die überall in Deutschland bereits um den Gefrierpunkt herum anzutreffen sind, sorgt bei Dunlop Winterreifen die Multi-Lamellen-Technologie für gute Haftung und Spurtreue. Dank der kältetauglichen
Silicia-Gummimischung verkürzt sich der Bremsweg auf winterlichen Straßen; der Fahrer erhält die größtmögliche Kontrolle über
sein Fahrzeug.
Bei allen technischen Leistungsvorteilen sind
Der Auto-Biograf
die Reifen komfortabel und leise. Nicht verwunder-
simon kidston, 40, war lange Jahre Europachef des Auktionshauses Bonhams. Sein Spezial­gebiet:
lich, dass die ADACmotorwelt beim Winterreifentest
hochwertige Klassiker. Deshalb weiß er auch: Ein altes Auto ist immer so wertvoll wie seine Geschichte. Und
Kidston kennt diese Geschichten. Alle. Deshalb ist er auch als Moderator, Auktionator und Sachverständiger
auf den bedeutendsten Sammlertreffen, allen voran Pebble Beach in Kalifornien und Villa d’Este am Comer
See, gefragt. Mittlerweile arbeitet Kidston höchst erfolgreich in eigener Sache. Sein Unternehmen Kidston
S.A. in Genf fädelt für den Privatsammler Käufe und Verkäufe ein, erstellt Expertisen, liefert Policen und
regelt auch gerne die komplette Finanzierung. Was ihn auszeichnet? Die Nähe zum Markt, sagt der einer
Rennfahrer-Familie entstammende Kidston mit dem Selbstbewusstsein zwanzigjähriger Berufserfahrung.
2007 gleich zwei Dunlop Reifen mit der besten
Auszeichnung „besonders empfehlenswert“ bewertete. In sechs weiteren Automobil-Fachzeitschriften – einschließlich Autobild sportscars – wurden
Dunlop Winterreifen im letzten Jahr zum Testsieger
erklärt. Weitere Informationen unter www.adac.de,
Der Dunlop SP Winter Sport 3D.
www.autobild.de oder www.dunlop.de.
■
Ñ Multi-Radien-Technologie (MRT) – eine optimierte Reifenkontur sorgt für gleichmäßigere Druckverteilung in der Bodenaufstandsfläche. Dadurch werden die Handling-Eigenschaften
deutlich verbessert.
Ñ Flacheres Laufflächenprofil – durch die größere Bodenaufstandsfläche werden Kurvenstabilität und Lenkpräzision erhöht.
Ñ Optimierter Profil Positiv-Negativ-Anteil: Hoher Gummianteil
in den Reifenschultern und gesteigertes Rillenvolumen in
der Reifenmitte sorgen für besseres Kurvenhandling bei gleichzeitig erhöhter Aquaplaning-Resistenz.
Mehr über Touch Technology finden Sie im Internet unter
www.dunlop.de.