Das Geschäftsmodell zeigt Besserung

30.01.2014
PANDORA - KAUFEN
Das Geschäftsmodell
zeigt Besserung
Dies ist ein nichtkomplexes
Produkt.
Die Gewinne werden sich schrittweise
zeigen
Fundamental valuation
Fair
Risk
Die neue Charms-Kollektion ist anscheinend ein Erfolg
Das Geschäftsmodell von Pandora wird in Bezug auf Design, Vertrieb und
Marktkommunikation in höherem Grad datenbasiert. Dies wird dem
Unternehmen dazu verhelfen, neue Möglichkeiten schnell zu entdecken,
die Kunden mit den richtigen Produkten und Kollektionen zu erreichen
und die Konkurrenz in höherem Grad zu überrunden.
High
News flow
Positive
12-month target price
350
Closing price
308
Sh ar e in fo r m atio n
High/low latest 12 m
327/129
Price trend (3/12 m)
24%/138%
Relative to OMXC20
18%/114%
Market value (DKKm)
39.590
Free float
Unserer Ansicht nach ist das Wachstum des EBIT von 75 % im vierten
65%
Quartal 2013 ein Anzeichen dafür, dass die Verbesserungen allmählich
Avg daily vol (DKKm)
Reuters
PNDORA.CO
nächsten Jahren anhalten wird.
Bloomberg
PNDORA DC
Die Aktie hat sich stark erholt und wird im Verhältnis zu vergleichbaren
Pr ic e tr en d
einen Effekt haben, und wir erwarten, dass diese Entwicklung in den
Aktien aktuell mit einem bescheidenen KGV-Rabatt gehandelt. Die
Prognose des Unternehmens für 2014, die am 18. Februar veröffentlicht
wird, wird wahrscheinlich wie üblich konservativ sein, und Aktien im
207,2
Pandora A/S
OMXC20 Cap
317
267
Bereich Luxuswaren werden aktuell nicht in besonders hohem Grad
nachgefragt. Die Preise für die Produkte von Pandora liegen jedoch am
unteren Ende im Markt, und daher sind wir der Ansicht, dass sich die Aktie
den Sektor outperformen kann.
217
167
117
j
Accounting figure s a nd ke y figure s
(DKKm)
f
m
a
m
j
j
a
s
o
n
d
Source: Jyske Bank & Datast ream
2012R
2013E
2014E
2015E
Sales
6.652
9.018
10.450
11.929
Operating profit
1.475
2.640
3.321
3.897
Results before taxes
1.479
2.676
3.291
3.784
EBIT margin
22,2%
29,3%
31,8%
32,7%
ROE
21,0%
34,3%
37,7%
38,8%
ROIC
19,3%
31,1%
37,8%
42,1%
EPS
9,24
16,87
21,02
24,17
P/E
34,3
18,8
15,1
13,1
Wesentliche Anlegerinformationen:
EV/EBITAA
38,7
20,6
15,1
12,7
Sehen Sie bitte die letzten Seiten.
P/BV
6,8
6,1
5,3
4,9
Dividend
5,5
5,8
6,8
8,6
---------------------------------------
Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16
8600 Silkeborg
Aktienanalyst Frans Høyer
+45 89 89 70 33 - [email protected]
----------------------------------Diese Analyse ist ein Auszug aus einer
Anlageanalyse für professionelle Anleger.
30.01.2014
Für den Anfang des Jahres 2014 sehen wir weiter solide Fortschritte, und
wir erwarten weitere Aktienrückkäufe. Mit einer langsameren
Verbesserung der Bruttomarge und der operativen Kosten als Prozent des
Umsatzes sehen wir für 2014 ein Wachstum des EBIT von 25 % und für
2015 ein Wachstum des EBIT von 17 % voraus. Wir stufen das Kursziel je
Aktie auf DKK 350 ein, was einem KGV von 16,7x entspricht.
30.01.2014
Overview – Pandora
Company profile
Owners hip s truc ture
Pandora is a designer, manufacturer and wholesale distributor of branded genuine
Others
jewellery sold through 10,500 partner-owned stores mainly in the US, UK, Australia
40%
and Germany but also increasingly in many other markets. Partners allocate ever
more selling space to the brand and Pandora steers the process in the direction of
stores fully dedicated to the brand. The line-up contains 1,250 SKUs with charms
and bracelets making up about 80% and fingerrings and other products the rest.
Production is located in Thailand with distribution by air to three regional centers
in the US, North America and Australia.
Pandora
Management
8%
Sal es growth and profitabi li ty
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Axcel
35%
RSMLP
Holding
9%
Pewic
Holding
8%
Break - down of s al es
Others
28%
0
2012R
0
2013E
0
2014E
Sales growth
0
2015E
0
2016E
0
2017E
Australia
10%
United
Kingdom
14%
Germany
10%
EBIT-margin
Fundamental valuation
 Pandora's high growth is led by rapid selling space expansion
United States
38%
Inves tment c as e
 The recovery from various mistakes in 2011 is behind us, but
by retailer partners. The model is asset light, profit margins
Pandora has advanced the quality of operations for example by
are high and cash flow is growing fast. The balance sheet is
collecting retail-sell out data thus enhancing its ability to
strong though a large portion of assets is in the form of
detect opportunities, get the product and collections right,
good-will and other intangibles. Pandora is committed to
adapt its market communication and avoid mistakes. Competition
growing dividends steadily and buying back own shares from
is fragmented with typically much smaller-sized operators with
time to time.
poor profitability. While some markets are already penetrated
with Pandora charms we reckon it can grow topline at 8% p.a.
yet in 2022 still have scope for growth in the US and Europe.
Asia and adjacent jewellery categories offer additional
growth.
Pri c e tri ggers
 Evidence of success with innovative charms collection or in
adjecent jewellery categories like fingerrings.
Ris k fac tors
 With little control of the retail level Pandora is dependent
on its retailer partners. A poor collection or two can incur

Turning around the operation in Germany.

Accelerated expansion on the US West Coast.

much damage.
Volatile metals prices affect profit margins.

Entering new markets.

Unrest in Thailand may affect production and distribution.

Success in online sales at high margins.
30.01.2014
Disclaimer & Disclosure
Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority.
The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the
correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates
and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and
may not be copied.
This report is an investment research report.
Conflicts of interest
Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an
objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the equity research activities of Jyske Markets,
a business unit of Jyske Bank.
Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in equities for which they prepare research reports. If an analyst takes over for the
responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc., this analyst cannot trade in the relevant share on the day of publication of
the research report and the following day.
Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has
not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports.
Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at www.jyskebank.dk/terms.
Jyske Bank’s share recommendations – current allocation
Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number)
14
Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number)
20
12
15
10
8
10
6
4
5
2
0
0
Strong Buy
Buy
Reduce
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Reduce
Sell
Source: Jyske Bank
30.01.2014
Financial models
Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend
model to determine the fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such
as P/E and EV/EBITA. The recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment
based on knowledge of the industry and company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank’s recommendations take into account the expected
development in the equity market, the various sectors and company-specific circumstances.
Risk
Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company
may affect the price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors
stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency
other than the investor’s base currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to
the currency in which the underlying share trades.
Update of research report
The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company’s financial statements. In addition, research
reports may be prepared on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme.
These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis.
See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report.
All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated.
Recommendation
Risk-adjusted return
Strong Buy
Buy
Reduce
>20%
10-20%
0-10%
Sell
<0%
Source: Jyske Bank
Share recommendation concepts
Our recommendations are relative to the market development and are based on an evaluation of the forecast return within the coming 12
months. The forecast return is the difference between the current price and our 12-month price target (the price target includes the
projected dividend). The equity market has historically yielded a return of around 10% (the US equity market, for instance, yielded a return of
10% during the period 1902-2011). When we determine the recommendation for a share we use the 10% as an estimate of the return in the
equity market.
Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In
addition, the potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the
anchor. A BUY recommendation will remain a BUY recommendation until changed, even if price increases have taken the price ‘too close’ to the
price target.
The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs since returns after costs depend on a
number of factors relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and productspecific factors. It is not certain that the share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively
express our best assessment.
30.01.2014
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