The Status Quo of the German Logistics Market

Transcription

The German Logistics Market: Market
Size and Structure, Trends and
Challenges
German-Dutch Logistics Conference
Prof. Dr. Christian Kille
Duisburg, 25/3/2014
Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt
Agenda
L The Status Quo of the German Logistics
Market
L Some Challenges in Logistics in Germany
L The Development of Logistics in Germany
2
in bn. The logistics market in Germany – an
industry with relevance (status 2012)
Sources: Destatis 2013, Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 in Logistics 2013, Verbände
3
Logistics services are processed by retail,
industry and logistics companies
L Logistics expenses can be
found in industry and retail
(51%) and logistics services
(49%)
L Contract Logistics is an
important part
L complex logistics bundles with
various services
L individualized solutions
L several years contracts
L significant volume
L About 40% of the expenses
are referring to contract
logistics
Source: Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 der Logistik 2013
4
Mainly, transportation is outsourced
Source: Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 der Logistik 2013
5
Germany is the largest logistics market in
Europe
Europe: about 930 b. USA: about 900 b. China: about 500 b. Source: Kille/Schwermmer 2013
6
Imports increased in 2013 by 3.3%; EU
driver of growth
<?F
&' 2
"
=:F
&'
<BF
by port
=<F
?AF
by value
"
BF
Other ports D ca. 75 mill. t
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;F
&'
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;=F
HH ca. 65 mill. t
HB ca. 35 mill. t
?<F
by weight
ARA ca. 80 mill. t
621 mill. t (2013)
896 b. (2013)
Air 1.9 mill. t
%& "
?F
Rest ca. 365 mill. t
Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014
7
NRW, Lower Saxony, Bavaria and BadenWürttemberg are the Top 4 in importing
;
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Missing volumes: transit or not allocated
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Veränderung: -11%
Anteil: 14%
Veränderung: +7%
Anteil: 29%
Veränderung: +3%
Anteil: 12%
Veränderung: +13%
Anteil: 11%
8
In total, 91 mill. to were imported from the
Netherlands
=?2:::2:::
=:2:::2:::
Imports from the Netherlands in tons 2013
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9
Slight increase in exports by 0.4% in 2013;
demand in EU drives outgoing tonnages
&'
=<F
by value
Other ports: ca. 30 mill. t
?AF
"
@F ""
;F
*&& "
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<F ;CF
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HH: ca. 50 mill. t
HB: ca. 35 mill. t
%& "
;F
by weight
A@F
Air: ca. 2.2 mill. t
378 mill. t (2013)
1,094 b. (2013)
%& "
;F
Road: ca. 165 mill. t
Rail: ca. 45 mill. t
IWW: ca. 48 mill. t
10
According exports, the industry states are
leading
;
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=
>
?
@
A
B
C
;:
;;
;<
;=
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! "
! "! !
Nordrhein-Westfalen
25%
-2%
Bayern
10%
+1%
Baden-Württemberg
10%
-2%
+1%
Niedersachsen
9%
Rheinland-Pfalz
6%
-1%
Hamburg
4%
+5%
Sachsen-Anhalt
3%
+5%
Hessen
3%
-1%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
3%
+32%
-5%
Brandenburg
2%
Schleswig-Holstein
2%
-2%
Saarland
2%
-1%
Sachsen
2%
-5%
Bremen
1%
-15%
Thüringen
1%
-4%
Berlin
1%
-2%
Missing volumes: transit or not allocated
Veränderung: +1%
Anteil: 9%
Veränderung: -2%
Anteil: 25%
Veränderung: +1%
Anteil: 10%
Veränderung: -2%
Anteil: 10%
11
In sum, 71 mill. tons were exported to the
Netherlands in 2013
;B2:::2:::
;@2:::2:::
Exports from the Netherlands in tons 2013
;>2:::2:::
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12
The most important logistics locations are
very near to the seaports
13
Agenda
Market
14
Infrastructure – a
continuous discussion
L The planning of
infrastructure projects
takes too long
L Balancing act
between knowing the
need and convincing
all stakeholders
L Low reputation For 2020 forecasted
bottlenecks
of logistics
Status 2006
Bottlenecks today
15
Everybody is talking about skilled workers
in industries – what abour logistics?
L Growth from 2.48
m. employees in
2004 to more than
2.8 m. in 2013 in
logistics
Do You have problems now or in near future to find adequate
employees?
Yes
No
Source: BVL 2011
L Skills shortage
already in place in
logistics
L So: let‘s talk about
the image of
logistics
16
One of the main challenges in logistics is
the image – at least in Germany
17
Agenda
Market
18
Discussing the developments in logistics is
like a weather forecast
L Either it‘s nothing
new,
L or it‘s totally
different from
reality
L But some impacts
can be outlined
which influence the
market (just a
collection of
drivers)
19
Logistics is changing from bulky raw
materials to sensitive goods
by tons
imports
by tons
exports
Metals
-15%
Coke
-31%
Oar
-13%
Stones and earth
-27%
Stones and earth
-10%
Glas and ceramics
-19%
...
...
...
...
Pharma
+12%
Pharma
+16%
IT
+10%
Food
+11%
Automobive
+4%
IT
+6%
The structure of shipments is changing heavily and
has direct effects on the handling and transportation
Source: Destatis 2013; Development from 2008 to 2012 in Germany
20
Besides the demand, especially the costs
are changing
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Forecast
Index - Average of 2008 = 100
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-'/% "
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C:
&'%"*%#$
Source: Fraunhofer SCS
21
Worksharing 2.0 and Industry 4.0:
Changing the supply chain
L Postponement in production
L Responsive Supply Chain
L Reverse Logistics
New tasks
and new
responsibilities
Source: Kille 2013
22
This leads to a continuous growth in
logistics
Updated
Projection
2013: +1%
Updated
Forecast 2014:
+1% to +5%
Approach:
Corridor for plausible
forecast based on
different impacts
Source: Kille/Schwemmer 2013
23
I‘m looking forward to Your questions
Prof. Dr. Christian Kille
Trade Logistics
University for Applied Sciences
Würzburg-Schweinfurt
Institute for Applied Logistics IAL
Scientific Advisor
Fraunhofer-Center for Applied Research on
Supply Chain Services SCS
Münzstr. 12, 97070 Würzburg
Phone: +49 172 6714752
Nordostpark 93, 90411 Nürnberg
[email protected]
www.fhws.de
[email protected]
www.scs.fraunhofer.de
24

The Status Quo of the German Logistics Market

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