Press Review: Sep. 2013 to Dec. 2013

2013
PRESS REVIEW
Sep. – Dec. 2013:
 Award Ceremony and Symposium
 Nobel Prize for Fama and Shiller
Print
Internet Worldwide
Internet Germany
Date
PRINT
Publisher
21.09.2013 Börsen-Zeitung
27.09.2013
Headline
Rajan: Preisträger kommt nach Deutschland
Börsen-Zeitung
Fed-Vorstand Stein für Auto-Exit
F.A.Z.
Im Gespräch: Raghuram Rajan, Governeur der indischen
Zentralbank
“Indien wird China überholen”
F.A.Z.
Interne Kritik an Ben Bernanke
Handelsblatt
„Der Euro wird überleben“ S.3, 4, 30-31
Frankfurter
Rundschau
Deutsche Bank-Preis für indischen Notenbankchef
The Times of India
Rajan questions merit of low interest rates
26.09.2013 The Indian Express
Business Standard,
New Delhi
Dill-Post,
Solms Braunfelser,
Wetzlarer Neue
Zeitung
Herborner Tageblatt
Haigerer Zeitung
27.09.2013
Dill-Zeitung
Herborner Echo
Weilburger Tageblatt
Hinterländer
Anzeiger
Nassauer Tageblatt
27.09.2013
Neutral stands on rates for now:Rajan
RBI governor says forex reserves comfortable
Deutsche Bank-Preis geht an Rajan
02.10.2013 Die Zeit
"Das ist lächerlich"
Experten warnen vor einer neuen Krise in den
Schwellenländern. Raghuram Rajan, Starökonom und Chef
der indischen Notenbank, hält dagegen.
15.10.2013 Boersen-Zeitung
Wirtschaftsnobelpreis für Finanzmarktforscher
17.10.2013 Handelsblatt
Türöffner für die Deutsche Bank
21/2013
Zeitschrift für das
gesamte Kreditwesen
Fama und Shiller – keine Antipoden
INTERNET GERMANY
21.09.2013 Boersen-zeitung.de
26.09.2013 DB Prize Live Stream
Boerse.ard.de
Focus.de
26.09.2013
Fnp.de
Fr-online.de
Handelsblatt.com
27.09.2013 Faz.net
Ntv.de
30.09.2013 Faz.net/fazit
14.10.2013 Wiwo.de
12.12.2013
CFS Newsletter
2/2013
INTERNET WORLDWIDE
04.09.2013 Reuters
Bloomberg terminal
ecb.europa.eu
federalreserve.gov
26.09.2013 washingtonpost.com
Livemint.com
Raghuram Rajan:Preisträger kommt nach Deutschland
Award Ceremony and Symposium:
Total views: 451
Live views: 442
Raghuram Rajan – ein ausgezeichneter Hüter des Geldes
Deutsche Bank-Preis an indischen Notenbankchef Rajan
verliehen
„Der Euro wird überleben“
Im Gespräch: Raghuram Rajan, Governeur der indischen
Zentralbank
“Indien wird China überholen”
Indien will China überholen
“Geldpolitiker sind verdientermaßen Helden”
Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen und Robert J. Shiller
erhalten Nobelpreis
Fama and Shiller are not Poles Apart
Deutsche Bank Prize 2013: CFS Symposium in Honor of
Raghuram Rajan
Deutsche Bank Prize 2013: Award Ceremony in honor of
Raghuram Rajan
Financial Events Calendar: Economic Events
Livestream of Award Ceremony and Symposium
Deutsche Bank Prize attribution to Raghuram Rajan
Governor Jeremy C. Stein
At the "Banking, Liquidity and Monetary Policy," a
Symposium Sponsored by the Center for Financial Studies,
Frankfurt, Germany
Jeremy Stein would make a great No. 2 at the Fed. This
speech shows why.
Deutsche Bank award for ‘financial economist’ Raghuram
Rajan
Chicagobooth.edu
Raghuram Rajan celebrated for influential research
ecb.europa.eu
Vitor Constâncio speech: Deutsche Bank Prize attribution
to Raghuram Rajan
RBI governor Raghuram Rajan receives Deutsche Bank
Prize
For more international internet press coverage on the symposium see: “Online
Coverage” at the end of the document
Commentary by Kenneth Rogoff: What’s the Problem
04.12.2013 project-syndicate.org
With Advanced Economies?
27.09.2013 Thetimesofindia.com
International NEWSAGENCIES
04.09.2013 Reuters
dpa-AFX
Reuters
Dow Jones
Associated Press
Newswire
26.09.2013 Dpa-AFX
Dpa-Basisdienst
Reuters
20.09.2013
Cogencis
14.10.2013 dpa-AFX
Rajan speaks at Goethe University Frankfurt and receives
„Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics“ awarded by
the Center for Financial Studies.
Verleihung des Deutsche Bank Prize
Head of India`s central bank questions merits of low
interest rates in restoring growth
Deutsche Bank-Preis an indischen Notenbankchef Rajan
verliehen
Easy central bank policy risks new crises
- RBI Rajan says global financial markets facing great
uncertainty
- Raghuram Rajan says emerging mkts must focus on
domestic inflation
Shiller – Deutsche Bank-Prize 2009
Aufgegriffen von Chemnitzer Zeitung ua. am 15.10.2013
Content Related Citations (from Symposium and Interviews)
PfaelzischerNotenbankchef Rajan: Indien wird China überholen
merkur.de
Dpa- AFX
Notenbankchef Rajan: Indien wird China überholen
RBI´s Rajan: Looking at all aspects of Inflation
26.09.2013 Dow Jones
Reuters
27.09.2013 Saarbrücker Zeitung
28.10.2013 F.A.Z.
- India c. bank head: Neutral stance on rates for now
- Indie-Markets/Open
Notenbankchef Rajan: Indien wird China überholen
Mehr Eigenkapital bitte! „…Rajan, …, benutzte den
Begriff „einarmige Ökonomen“ kürzlich auf einer
Veranstaltung in Frankfurt mit Bezug auf die Diskussionen
über ein angemessenes Bankeigenkapital.“
DB: Print Advertisement
Süddeutsche Zeitung
FAZ
18.10.2013 Die Welt
Handelsblatt
Börsenzeitung
19.10.2013
Financial Times
Wall Street Journal
Eugene F. Fama, Robert J. Shiller. We can
hardly congratulate you enough. We
congratulated you as the award winners of the
Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics in
2005 and 2009. Today, we have the honor of
congratulating you once again as winners of the
Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in
Memory of Alfred Nobel 2013.
Live Stream numbers (27.09.13)
Live stream Duration: 6hr 25 mins
Total views: 451
Live views: 442
Views on Demand: 9 so far
Hours watched: 552
(An Average of 1.13.28 per viewer)
peak views: 82 simultaneous views.
In addition our stream was available from Bloomberg through their "Bloomberg terminal" platform.
Responsible:
[email protected]
Deutsche Bank Prize 2013:
Award Ceremony in honor of
Raghuram Rajan
The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics was presented to
Raghuram G. Rajan by Jürgen Fitschen, Co-Chief Executive Officer of
Deutsche Bank AG, on 26 September 2013, followed by the academic
symposium at Campus Westend, Goethe University Frankfurt.
Michael Haliassos, Raghuram Rajan, Jürgen Fitschen (l. to r.)
Michael Haliassos, Chairman of the Jury of the prize, CFS Director and Professor of Economics at Goethe
University, opened the Award Ceremony and the Symposium in honor of Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor of
Reserve Bank of India since September 2013. Previously, Rajan was Chief Economic Adviser in the Finance
Ministry, Government of India, and Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the
University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Governor Rajan is the fifth recipient of the Deutsche
Bank Prize in Financial Economics. Michael Haliassos stressed the high quality of the academic selection
process and its independence from the funding side, and he summarized the view of the international Jury:
“Professor Rajan’s work spans a remarkably broad range of areas in financial economics most important to
the development of economies worldwide, ranging from the central role of banks in creating liquidity and
the role of finance in economic growth to the nature of corporations and their financing. His work develops
novel empirical and theoretical approaches with significant policy implications.”
Award Ceremony
Jürgen
Fitschen,
Co-Chief
Executive
Officer
of
Deutsche Bank AG, in honoring Raghuram Rajan’s work
focused mainly on the policy implications of his work
and the lessons that can be learnt by the banking
industry. He suggested that Rajan’s research would
prove particular important for the current process of
redesigning a financial regulation that contributes to
the development of a stable, efficient and productive
financial system aimed at better serving society.
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He cited his path breaking studies on the relationship
between
financial
sector
and
economic
growth, a
complex relationship that cannot be simplified by the ratio of financial sectors over GDP.
He also remembered Rajan’s extensive work on corporate governance especially of a modern firm whose
business model is based on intangible assets and human capital. Consequently, owners of specialist
knowledge can exert a disproportional pressure to receive a larger share of revenues. This should offer a
key to understand the serious governance problems faced by financial institutions prior to the crisis.
Finally, in his book with Luigi Zingales, “Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists”, Rajan explained the
benefits of the capital system and the challenges of policy makers in designing institutional frameworks
that allow markets to be more effective.
In congratulating Rajan, Fitschen praised him not only for his relevant path breaking empirically-based
research, but also because he always tackled real world complex policy issues and never shied away from
speaking the inconvenient truth, such as in his 2005 Jackson Hall speech warning about the built up of
unsustainable imbalances in the financial system.
In the laudatory speech, Douglas Diamond, Merton H. Miller
Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of
Chicago Booth School of Business, emphasized the important
impact that Rajan's work had not only on other people's research
in economics and finance but also on policy making. In fact, Rajan
has always focused on important topics using a wide range of
methodologies with the objective of having a positive impact on
the world. This was also the reason why he accepted the position
of Research Director at the IMF and, now, Governor of the
Reserve Bank of India.
He remembered how Rajan was promoted directly from Assistant
Professor to full Professor at the University of Chicago, something
very rare, and how well respected he has always been in the
department. Diamond acknowledged that Rajan’s research is
outstanding and incredibly broad. In particular, he remembered
his
path-breaking
paper
“Finance
Dependence
and Growth”,
coauthored with Luigi Zingales, in which they present the effects of financial constraints and limited
financial development on growth analyzing the cost of external financing of firms.
Moreover, he remembered his important policy work and contributions: in India, at the IMF, with the Swan
Lake Group, his widely cited Jackson Hall speech in which he forewarned of the roots of the crisis and his
work with Jeremy Stein and Anil Kashyap in which they made the first coherent call for the use of
contingent capital.
Diamond focused on Rajan's work on banking, short-term debt and monetary policy. In an earlier paper,
“Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's length debt”, one of the first to relate
financial contracting to the strength of bargaining power between borrowers and lenders, he showed that
short-term debt is preferable if the bargaining power of the borrower is higher than the lender, while longterm debt in the opposite case. This idea developed in a series of paper coauthored with Mitchell Petersen
on the value of having some exclusivity and monopoly power in bank lending.
In the work Diamond coauthored with Rajan, they analyze the liquidity mismatch between short-term
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deposit financing long-term illiquid assets. They show that an unstable financial structure subject to runs
induces banks discipline and allows financial institutions to raise a bigger percentage of the value against
an illiquid asset at least for a very short period of time than any more stable capital structure. He concluded by pointing out that this line of research could be used to analyze the issue of banks’ capital
structure, which is naturally short-term debt with a reasonable sized capital buffer. If unregulated, banks
choose too much short-term debt and a capital requirement is needed. However, more empirical work is
required on the effects of capital requirement before assessing the impact of its increase on the health and
stability of the financial system.
In his acceptance speech, Raghuram Rajan thanked all his coauthors, in particular Douglas Diamond, Mitchell Petersen, Luigi
Zingales, Viral Acharya, Randy Kroszner, Anil Kashyap, Stewart
Myers and Jeremy Stein, all his mentors and colleagues at MIT
and at the University of Chicago, and the vibrant intellectual
environment in those institutions. He also thanked his wife
Radica Puri for all her support, his two children and his parents
and expressed his honor in receiving this important prize.
Laura Moretti (CFS)
About the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics
The prize, awarded every two years and established by the Center for Financial Studies and Goethe
University in 2005, aims to honor an internationally renowned researcher who has made influential
contributions in the fields of finance, money and macroeconomics, and whose work has led to practiceand policy- relevant results. It is sponsored by the Stiftungsfonds Deutsche Bank im Stifterverband für die
Deutsche Wissenschaft*, a charitable foundation, and carries a cash award of €50,000.
The nomination process was extensive and involved a total of 4,000 economists from universities, central
banks and research centers from 60 countries who made 265 nominations. It was up for the Jury, to select
the prize winner in January 2013. The Jury itself consisted of leading international experts thereby
ensuring exceptional academic standards are maintained and enhancing the credibility and reputation of
the prize.
The previous recipients of the prize were Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago for “developing and
investigating the concept of market efficiency – a cornerstone in the area of finance”, Michael Woodford of
Columbia University for his fundamental contributions to “the theory and practical analysis of monetary
policy”, Robert Shiller of Yale University for his “pioneering research in the field of financial economics,
relating to dynamics of asset prizes and their metrics” and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University for “his
work on sovereign default and debt restructuring, global imbalances, and the history of financial crises
which is highly relevant for understanding and addressing today‘s global challenges.”
* Deutsche Bank Donation Fund in the Donor's Association for German Science
For further information on the DB Prize please click on the following link:
www.db-prize.org
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Deutsche Bank Prize 2013: CFS
Symposium in honor of
Raghuram Rajan
The CFS honored Raghuram G. Rajan, laureate of the Deutsche Bank
Prize in Financial Economics 2013, with a symposium entitled “Banking,
Liquidity, and Monetary Policy” in Frankfurt.
Leading academic economists discussed Rajan’s highly influential contributions in a broad range of research
areas in financial economics. Policy panel members addressed topical policy issues relating to Rajan´s
work.
Plenary Lecture: “Financial Dominance”
Markus Brunnermeier, Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics at Princeton University, presented his
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views on financial dominance, which refers to the situation in which a central bank is unable to raise
interest rates because it would drive the financial sector into difficulties.
An important issue in a financial crisis is who, between the government and the banking sector, is better
equipped to hold liquidity risk. In fact, government shoulders liquidity risk when it borrows short term and
faces rollover risk. Instead, if it issues long-term bonds the liquidity risk is shifted onto banks. However,
the banking sector provides the service of maturity transformation and liquidity insurance only if it well
capitalized, otherwise the risk will fall back onto the government sector later on.
The role of monetary policy is to reduce the amplification effects of an adverse shock to the repaying
capacity of borrowers. Nevertheless, there are two different views on how to achieve it: the money view
and the credit view. In the money view, the deflationary pressure is contrasted by increasing money
supply and debtors benefit from this policy intervention. In contrast, the credit view suggests recapitalizing
healthy bank in order to restore credit.
Monetary policy could be seen as an insurance scheme that increases the value of long-term bonds in bad
times, when interest rates are cut, and acts as a tax in good times by decreasing the value of long-term
bonds when interest rates are raised. Therefore, it is essential to have good bank regulation in order to
limit moral hazard. In this way, it is possible to stabilize the economy and switch off all the amplification
mechanism.
However, when long-term government bonds bear also default risk, a negative credit shock reduces credit,
GDP and tax revenues and the government is less balanced. There could be fiscal dominance if the
government refuses to balance the budget in the long run, or monetary dominance if the central bank
refuses to accommodate. If nobody blinks, the only outcome is default of the government bond, which
would hurt bank sustainability. However, if the central bank accommodates, there is inflationary
uncertainty due to the opposite forces of deflation, due to the recession, and inflation, due to the
accommodative monetary policy.
He concluded by pointing out the importance of preventive monetary policy and of paying attention to
early warning signals, such as credit growth, imbalances, periods of low volatility and intensive financial
innovation.
Plenary Lecture: “Dynamics of Growth, Debt and Taxation”
Viral Acharya, C.V. Starr Professor of Economics at the New York University Stern School of Business,
presented his recent work with Raghuram Rajan, “Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia and the Financial
Sector” (Review of Financial Studies, 2013), in which the authors present an alternative explanation to the
still open question of why countries repay their debt. In fact, the classic explanation of fear of exclusion
from the debt markets are at odds with the fact that defaulters are able to return to the international
capital markets reasonably quickly.
The authors analyze a situation in which governments continue to service their debt even though a debt
restructuring would be more beneficial for the long-run growth perspective of the country. Their proposed
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explanation stems from the assumption that governments are myopic and suffer from short-termism
because they are constraint by elections. In fact, short-horizon government do not care about the
accumulation of debt that needs to be services because they can pass it on future governments, but they
are interested in the current cash flow. As long as the new borrowing exceed the service of the current
debt, they are willing to continue servicing the debt. In fact, default, even though in some cases might be
beneficial for the long run growth perspective of the country, it would only reduce the current availability
of cash.
Moreover, they analyze the mechanism that leads to the entanglement of the financial sector with
sovereign debt. In fact, domestic banks ownership of government bonds raises the cost of defaulting.
Anticipating this, foreign lenders will continue to service the debt. At the same time, myopic governments
would not be worried about debt accumulation as long as they are able to roll over the accumulated debt
plus an extra.
In the light of this model, Acharya discussed the current emerging of home bias in Europe in government
bond holding. Moreover, he pointed out the need of a mechanism to break the sovereign-financial sector
nexus. Bruegel think-thank proposed the creation of two kinds of bonds: “Blue” bonds, held by domestic
banks and guaranteed by Euro area, and “Red” bonds, guaranteed by issuing country and not held by
domestic banks. However, there would be a lack of commitment in repaying “Red” bonds giving the
absence of entanglement with the domestic financial sector.
Plenary Lecture: Banks Are Where the Liquidity Is
Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the University of
Chicago Booth School of Business, discussed the features that make banks unique, an important topic in
Rajan's research and in previous Deutsche Bank prize winners, such as Eugene Fama.
Traditionally, one important role played by banks has been the transactional demand for liquidity.
However, Zingales raised the provocative question of whether this role of banks is still valid in the current
environment of low transaction and communication costs, or whether bank deposits could be substituted
by a money market account.
He used a simple model to show that the role of banks is to meet the demand of people with liquidity
needs, who prefer to hold a disproportionate part of their endowment in riskless debt. Moreover, he
explained that the default of a bank has more negative consequences than the default of any other similar
sized company because it has a large impact on people that have liquidity constraints..
Keynote Lecture: “The Causes and Consequences of Unconventional Monetary Policy”
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Deutsche Bank Prize winner Raghuram Rajan presented his personal views on the developments after
the crisis, the benefits of unconventional monetary policy and some possible drawbacks.
In the years leading to the crisis, demand was debt-fuelled in part to boost slow growth. As argued in
“Faulty Lines”, in the United States there might have been also a political motivation in the expansion of
housing and in the practice of borrowing against housing value. In the euro area, instead, euro integration
opened up opportunities to cheap finance, which led to over borrowing in the periphery partly fueled by
lending from the euro core.
The first reaction to the crisis was to fix the financial sector and markets adopting a variety of measures
that worked well. Moreover, central banks aggressively cut interest rates and implemented unconventional
policies when interest rates reached the zero lower bound. In fact, given fiscal constraint and the difficulty
to implement structural reforms, the focus turned to monetary policy as a way to restore growth. Since
the real interest rate of equilibrium is negative, central banks lowered interest rates in order to promote
consumption and investment. However, in a post-crisis environment there might be other factors, such as
policy uncertainty and lack of available credit, that constrain investment.
Moreover, demand suffers also from the fact that people with high level of consumption before the crisis
are now too highly indebted to increase spending. Households who saved before the crisis might not be
willing to increase their consumption either despite the low interest rates. In fact, if they saved to reach a
certain level of savings, which were reduced by the crisis, they might want to increase their saving level
even further. Hence, lowering interest rates might not have the desired expansionary effect.
Since the debt-fueled demand was highly localized, the post crisis disruption is also local. Therefore, Rajan
raised the question of whether monetary policy interventions might be too blunt and not targeted enough,
while fiscal policy might be better suited for interventions in the most hit areas, even though he recognized
the potential (political) difficulties in its implementation.
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Assuming monetary policy was the only answer to the crisis, the Federal Reserve has implemented ultralow interest rates without raising inflationary expectations by forward guidance, with which the Fed has
signaled that it will keep interest rates low for long. However, one important issue is the degree of
commitment of such policy and its credibility. The other tool used aiming to lower long-term real interest
rates was large-scale asset purchase was.
Then, Rajan discussed the unintended consequences of unconventional monetary policy. In particular, the
increase in risk taking in an environment of low interest rate and the spillover effects with capital flow and
asset price booms particularly in emerging markets. Moreover, central banks by stepping in and offering a
viable solution to the crisis, have taken the pressure away from politicians to implement the needed
reforms. An important issue is the exit from unconventional monetary policy and the repercussion that this
might have especially on emerging markets, which were the recipients of large capital flows.
He concluded by praising central banks for avoiding a new great depression and for saving the financial
system. However, he warned that keeping low interest rate for a long period could fuel the next crisis and
he suggested taking into account the spillover effects of monetary policy in order to break the cycle of
crises.
Policy Panel “Liquidity and Monetary Policy”
J. Stein, V. Constâncio, M. Haliassos, O. Issing (l. to r.)
The symposium ended with a panel discussion, chaired by Michael Haliassos (Chairman of the Jury and
Symposium Organizer 2013, CFS Director and Goethe University Frankfurt) on “Liquidity and Monetary
Policy”. Participants included, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Otmar
Issing, CFS President and Jury member of the DB Prize, and Jeremy Stein, Governor, Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Vítor Constâncio introduced the elusive concept of liquidity and explained how the European Central Bank
(ECB) evolved its monetary policy and its liquidity provision during the crisis. In fact, the ECB since 2008
has abandoned the system of auction with variable rates and entered a mode of fixed rate, full allotment
supplying as much liquidity as banks demanded, provided they had eligible collateral. Moreover, in
December 2011 and February 2012 the ECB launched the long-term refinancing operations (LTROs),
extraordinary liquidity provision with 3-year maturities.
One of the benefits of LTROs is that the future absorption of liquidity in excess would be easier, because
banks have to repay their borrowings at maturity. He also added that, given the improved situation,
European banks have already repaid 362 billion euro, or 64% of the net increase of 500 billion euro, and
excess liquidity, which reached a peak of 813 billion euro in March 2012, has now fallen to 218 billion euro.
The ECB is therefore exiting quietly and smoothly from an extraordinary phase of high central bank
liquidity provision.
Finally, Constâncio mentioned the recent change in the ECB monetary policy and the introduction of a form
of “forward guidance”. In fact, the ECB stated that it will keep the key interest rates at present or lower
levels for an extended period of time, depending on the assessment of medium-term prospects for
inflation. The new policy has already bore positive results by lowering the forward curve of euro rates up
to two years.
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Otmar Issing discussed how liquidity, despite being such an elusive concept, has become the focus of
monetary policy. In fact, after the recent crisis, central banks have increase the available liquidity not only
by lowering policy rates, but also by expanding their balance sheets. Unfortunately, the increased liquidity
has not yet translated in a stronger demand.
Finally, he warned that the ultra-low interest rates could provide banks with the wrong incentives to make
risky investments searching for yields and possibly feeding the next bubble. Moreover, the ample
availability of liquidity could postpone the clear up of banks’ balance sheets and support the survival of
“zombie” banks.
Jeremy Stein discussed his recent work with Sam Hanson of Harvard Business School on the monetary
transmission mechanism.[1] They document that changes in the stance of monetary policy have
surprisingly strong effects on long-term forward real interest rates. These findings are at odds with
standards New Keynesian macro models in which a change in monetary policy rates should have no effects
on forward real rates at long horizons such as 10 years. Moreover, they suggest that monetary policy may
have a stronger effect than implied by standard models because it affects long-term real interest rates
(TIPS), which influence a variety of investment decisions.
Stein explained that the movements in distant forward real rates are mainly due to changes in term
premiums and not to changes in expectations about short-term real rates far into the future. In fact, a
decline in TIPS after a monetary policy easing is not due to the expectations of lower real short rates in 10
years, but of the fact that TIPS have become more expensive relative to the expected future path of short
rates.
The theoretical explanation draws on Rajan’s idea that low nominal interest rates can create incentives for
certain types of investors to “reach for yield”. A reduction in short-term nominal interest rates would cause
yield-oriented investors to buy long term-term bonds to avoid a decline in their overall yield. This cause a
raise in price of log-term bonds and hence a decline in long-term yields and forward rates. They provide
evidence that when the yield curve steepens, commercial banks increase the maturity of their holding.
[1] Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein (2012), “Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates.” The
reported views are only of the author and are not necessarily shared by other members of the FOMC.
The conference organizers are grateful to all the people involved in the organization and in particular to
Sabine Kimmel for her tireless efforts to make this event possible.
Laura Moretti (CFS)
For further information on the award ceremony and symposium please click on the following link:
>> speeches as video and slides as pdf files
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Wirtschaftsnobelpreis
Fama und Shiller – keine Antipoden
Prof. Dr. Jan Pieter Krahnen, Professur für
Kreditwirtschaft und Finanzierung, House
of Finance, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
sowie Center for Financial Studies
Der Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2013 geht an drei Ökonomen, deren Arbeit unsere Sichtweise nicht nur der Preisgestaltung auf Aktienmärkten, sondern weit
allgemeiner: unser heutiges Denken über
das Funktionieren von Marktwirtschaft
überhaupt geprägt hat. Mit gutem Recht
kann man sagen, dass der diesjährige Preis
für die grundlegende Vermessung der Vermögensmärkte unserer Gesellschaft vergeben worden ist.
Vermögensmärkte – also die Märkte für Aktien, Hypotheken, Anleihen – sind der Ort,
an denen sich unternehmerische und wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen für den
einzelnen Bürger bemerkbar machen: an der
Veränderung seines privaten Vermögens, das
beispielsweise in der Form von Aktien,
Fondsanteilen oder Immobilien gehalten
wird. Eugene Fama und Robert Shiller verbindet dabei eine Leidenschaft für eine
inhaltliche Charakterisierung der Marktpreisbildung. Weil ihre Kennzeichnung so unterschiedlich ist – Fama ist der Begründer der
Markteffizienzthese, Shiller dagegen findet
in den gleichen Preisen irrationalen Überschwang (irrational exuberance) – werden
sie gerne als Antagonisten, als unmögliches
Paar beschrieben. Der dritte Laureat, Lars Peter Hansen, hat nicht weniger fundamentale
Beiträge zur Technik der Messung von Preisbewegungen auf Börsenmärkten geleistet.
Da er sich jedoch weniger für die inhaltliche
Interpretation und mehr für die ökonometrische Messung interessiert hat, wurde ihm in
der Diskussion des diesjährigen Preises etwas
weniger Aufmerksamkeit zuteil.
Stattdessen wurde vielfach die Meinung
vertreten, dass Fama und Shiller als Antipoden in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen
Debatte zu sehen sind. Hinter dieser Charakterisierung steht die Vorstellung, dass Fama
mit seiner These einer vollständigen Verarbeitung verfügbarer Informationen auf Börsenmärkten eine natürliche Gegenposition
einnimmt zu Shiller. Dieser hat in langen
Preiszeitreihen Abweichungen von einer
fundamental begründbaren Bewertung fin-
den können, bei denen es nicht zu einer
schnellen Korrektur der Über- oder Unterbewertung gekommen ist. Stattdessen können solche Abweichungen über längere
Zeiten fortbestehen, so Shiller, und führen
damit zu Preisblasen, deren oft abruptes
Ende uns als Auslöser größerer Krisen begegnet. Wie beispielsweise der Beginn der
Finanzkrise 2007, als die Hauspreise in Teilen
der USA einbrachen und zahlreiche Schuldner, Banken und andere Investoren weltweit
in die Zahlungsunfähigkeit trieben.
Shiller stützt sich bei seiner Diagnose überhöhter Hauspreise auf eine Reihe von ihm
selbst erstellter Hauspreisindizes, die eine
langfristige, differenzierte Betrachtung von
Hauspreisen überhaupt erst möglich gemacht haben. Während die meisten Ökonomen sich immer schwer tun, Preisblasen –
also Differenzen zwischen beobachtetem
Marktpreis und zugrunde liegendem Fundamentalwert – zu diagnostizieren, ist dies
Shiller immer leicht gefallen. Schon zu
Beginn seiner Karriere hat er zu zeigen
versucht, dass die beobachtbaren Preisbewegungen auf Aktienbörsen sich nicht mit
einer damals unter Makroökonomen beliebten Bewertungstheorie erklären lassen: Preise seien zu volatil, um theoriekonform und
also rational zu sein. Auch Fama hat sich
vielfach zu der Existenz von Preisblasen geäußert – er kommt aber zu einem ganz anderen Ergebnis. Fama führte 1970 den Begriff der Markteffizienz in die Literatur ein
und entwickelte ein noch heute anerkanntes
Messkonzept. Der Wettbewerb unter den
Investoren an den Börsen, so Fama, führt zu
einer schnellen Verarbeitung der zu einem
Zeitpunkt verfügbaren Informationen. Je
nach Verfügbarkeit der Informationen und
Geschwindigkeit ihrer Verarbeitung in den
Preisen lässt sich daher mit Famas Konzept
der Effizienzgrad der Märkte messen.
Auf der wissenschaftlichen Ebene besteht
keine wirkliche Differenz zwischen Fama
und Shiller – der eine (Fama) entwickelt
eine Messtechnik, der andere (Shiller) baut
auf dieser Technik auf und wendet sie auf
eine eigene Theorie von Fundamentalwerten
an. Fama dagegen verwendet keine Fundamentaltheorie, sondern bewertet theoriefrei
und allein aus der Datenhistorie heraus unter Verwendung seines gemeinsam mit Ken-
neth French entwickelten Faktorenmodells.
Fazit: Fama und Shiller trennt nicht die Frage der Gültigkeit der Effizienzmarkthypothese (beide glauben daran), sondern die
Frage der Existenz eines theoretisch begründbaren Fundamentalwerts (nur Shiller
glaubt daran).
Wem diese schon fast philosophische Unterscheidung nicht bedeutsam genug erscheint, sei darauf hingewiesen, dass beide
Wissenschaftler eine ausgeprägte Schulenbildung in der Disziplin hervorgerufen haben. Darüber hinaus haben wiederum beide
in vielfältiger Weise an der Umsetzung ihrer
Erkenntnisse für unseren Alltag mitgewirkt.
Das a-theoretische Faktorenmodell von
Fama (und French) dominiert heute in zahlreichen Varianten die Tagesarbeit von
Fondsmanagern, Investmentbankern und
Vermögensberatern in der ganzen Welt –
auch in der Sparkasse nebenan. Fama selbst
hat mit einem in jungen Jahren von ihm gegründeten und seither betreuten CRSP-Datenzentrum an der Universität Chicago die
Basis für den ganz überwiegenden Teil aller
empirischen Arbeiten gelegt, die in den vergangenen 40 Jahren in der Finanzmarktforschung entstanden sind.
Ebenso hat Shiller dafür gesorgt, dass eine
Datenbasis entsteht, mit deren Hilfe Immobilieninvestitionen als wichtigster Bestandteil der Vermögen von Haushalten überhaupt erst in die Forschung und in der Folge
auch in die Vermögensplanung und das
Portfoliomanagement Einzug halten konnten. Mit dem Nobelpreis 2013 feiern wir im
besten Sinne Säulenheilige der Kapitalmarktforschung, die in den Jahren 2005 und
2009 bereits in Frankfurt mit dem Deutsche
Bank Prize in Financial Economics ausgezeichnet worden waren.
Ausgewählte Literatur
Fama, E. F. (1965), „The Behavior of Stock-Market
Prices“, The Journal of Business, 38, 1, pp. 34–105
Fama, E. F. (1970), „Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, The Journal of
Finance, 25, pp. 383-417
Fama, E. F. und French, K. R. (1993), „Common Risk
Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds”, Journal of Financial Economics, 33, pp. 3–56
Shiller, R. J. (1981), „Do Stock Prices Move Too Much
to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?”,
The American Economic Review, 71, 3, pp. 421–436
Case, K. E. und Shiller, R. J. (1989), „The Efficiency of
the Market for Single-Family Homes”, The American
Economic Review, 79, 1, pp. 125–137
Shiller, R. J. (2005), „Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd ed.,
Princeton: Princeton University Press
Kreditwesen
ZKW21_1070_1073_GdT_Krahnen Nobel.indd 7
21 / 2013 · S. 7 / 1073
29.10.2013 09:57:22
Fama and Shiller are not Poles
Apart
Jan Pieter Krahnen acknowledges this year's economics Nobel laurates
– two of which won the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics,
awarded by the CFS, in 2005 and 2009.
The Nobel Prize in Economics 2013 is going to three economists whose work has influenced not only the
way we view stock market pricing, but also something far broader: our current thinking about how the
market economy functions as a whole. It is no exaggeration to state that this year's prize has been
awarded for the fundamental evaluation of our society's asset markets.
Asset markets – the markets for shares, mortgages, loans – are the place where
corporate and economic policy decisions become visible to individual citizens: by
altering their private wealth, which may be held in the form of shares, funds or
real estate, for example. Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller are united by their
shared passion for describing actual market pricing data. Since their descriptions
are so different – Fama established the market efficiency theory, while Shiller
views the same prices as evidence of irrational exuberance – they tend to be
characterized as antagonists, an impossible match.
The third laureate, Lars Peter Hansen, has made equally vital contributions
regarding techniques for evaluating stock market price movements. However,
since he focused less on interpreting actual prices and more on econometric evaluation, he has received
somewhat less attention in the discussion of this year's prize. Instead, many commentators have conveyed the view that Fama and Shiller should be regarded as polar
opposites in the economic debate. This characterization is based on the idea that Fama, with his thesis
that all available information is fully priced into the stock markets, occupies a position that naturally
opposes Shiller's. He has managed to find deviations from a fundamentally justifiable value in long series
of price data where the over- or undervaluation was not quickly corrected. Indeed, such deviations can
persist for long periods, says Shiller, thus leading to price bubbles, which often end abruptly and trigger
larger crises as, for example, at the start of the financial crisis in 2007, when US house prices collapsed,
driving many borrowers, banks and other investors worldwide into insolvency.
In his diagnosis of excessive house prices, Shiller relies on a series of house price
indexes that he himself compiled. It was only after he made this information
available that a long-term, differentiated examination of house prices was even
possible. While most economists still have difficulty diagnosing price bubbles – i.e.
differences between the observed market price and the fundamental value of the
asset – this ability has always come easily to Shiller. Even at the start of his
career he attempted to demonstrate that the observable stock market price
movements could not be explained through the value theory that was popular
among macroeconomists at the time: prices are too volatile to be rational and
conform to a theory, Shiller said.
Fama also commented frequently on the existence of price bubbles – yet he comes to an entirely different
conclusion. In 1970, Fama introduced the term “market efficiency” into the literature and developed an
evaluation method that is still recognized today. Fama posited that competition among stock market
investors results in all the data available at a given moment being processed very quickly. As such, Fama's
concept allows the efficiency of a market to be measured according to the availability of information and
how rapidly it is priced into the market.
At the scientific level there is no real difference between Fama and Shiller – one (Fama) develops an
evaluation method, the other (Shiller) builds upon this method and applies it to his own theory of
fundamental values. Fama, on the other hand, does not use a fundamental theory. Instead, his
assessment uses historic data exclusively, applying the factor model he co-developed with Kenneth French.
file:///C|/Users/sk/Desktop/art_resource.php.htm[10.12.2013 18:53:54]
In conclusion, Fama and Shiller are not divided by the question of whether the efficient market hypothesis
is valid (both believe it is), but by the question of whether a theoretically justifiable fundamental value
exists (only Shiller believes it does).
Those who view this almost philosophical distinction as insignificant should note that both of the
researchers have given rise to distinct schools within the discipline. Further, they have both made various
contributions to the ways their findings are applied in our everyday lives. The a-theoretical factor model of
Fama (and French), in numerous variations, dominates the daily practice of fund managers, investment
bankers and financial advisors worldwide – including your local savings bank. For many years Fama has
been chairman of the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) at the University of Chicago, which laid
the foundation for the vast majority of all empirical studies produced by financial market researchers over
the last 40 years.
Similarly, Shiller has created a database that allowed real estate investments, as the most important
component of household wealth, to be incorporated into research and therefore into asset planning and
portfolio management for the first time. This year's Nobel Prize celebrates, in the most positive sense, two
figureheads of capital market research. Their achievements were already recognized in 2005 and 2009
when they received the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics by the Center for Financial Studies.
Jan Pieter Krahnen (CFS)
A German version of this text appeared in the November 2013 issue of the Zeitschrift für das Gesamte
Kreditwesen. It is also integrated in the Deutsche Bank Prize - Press Review: Sep. 2013 to Dec. 2013 on
page 9 and can be found under the following link >>>
file:///C|/Users/sk/Desktop/art_resource.php.htm[10.12.2013 18:53:54]
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