Schebek

Transcription

Schebek

GoViLa - Modelling seminar
23 of September 2014, Darmstadt
Governance for the reduction of
indirect land use change – room for manoeuvre (GoViLa)
Research Project GoViLa
Prof. Dr. Liselotte Schebek
Technische Universität Darmstadt
Institut IWAR
Content
 Research Project GoViLa: Overview
 Research Procedure
 Status of the project
23.09.2014 | GoViLa Modelling Seminar | TU Darmstadt | Prof. Dr. Liselotte Schebek
Content
Research Project GoViLa
GoViLa – „Governance for the reduction of
indirect land use change – room for manoeuvre“
Funding:
BMEL, BMWi
Time frame:
10.12.2012 – 10.12.2014
Research field:
Bioenergy
www.govila.de
GoViLa Background:
EU/German Policy Targets for Biofuels
 Renewable Energy Directive RED: sets as target an energetic share
of 10 % for renewable energies in the whole transport sector for all
member states of the EU
 EU fuel quality directive FQD : target for net GHG-savings of 6 % for
the road transportation sector for all member states until the year
2020
In Germany implemented in:
 § 37 BImSchG, 7 % GHG-target for biofuels
BImSchG
Zweiter Abschnitt: Biokraftstoffe
§ 37a Mindestanteil von Biokraftstoffen an der Gesamtmenge des in
Verkehr gebrachten Kraftstoffs; Treibhausgasminderung
(1) Wer gewerbsmäßig oder im Rahmen wirtschaftlicher
Unternehmungen….Otto-oder Dieselkraftstoffe in Verkehr bringt,…..
GoViLa Research Question:
“Room for Manoeuvre” for Mitigation of LUC
The implementation of EU/German Political Targets
will include the import of biomass/biofuels:
Will this induce additional (indirect) Land Use Change (LUC)?
What „room for manoeuvre “ do we have to mitigate/avoid LUC?
Research Hypothesis:
Answers need an understanding of framework conditions and policy dynamics in
those regions that will supply biomass!
GoViLa: Overview on Research Procedure
Scenarios
Regional investigation
 Demand
 Regional
governance
Modelling
 LUC
 C-flows
Goal of the project:
Finding „Room for Manoeuvre“
GoViLa – Project partner
Project partner:
CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research
Project members:
Dr. D. Andrew Wardell
Dr. Pablo Pacheco
Dr. Krzysztof Obidziński
Area of expertise:
 Support on forestry and forest-dependent ethnic groups
 Regional expertise in the field of forestry in Indonesia and Brazil
Project partner:
IFPRI - International Food and Policy Research Institute
Project member:
Dr. David Laborde Debucquet
Area of expertise:
 Economic modeling with the focus on biofules, using computable
general equlibrium model (CGE) - MIRAGE
Project partner:
Universität Kassel - Center for Environmental Systems Research
Project members:
PD Dr.-Ing. Rüdiger Schaldach
Dipl.-Geoökologe Florian Wimmer
Area of expertise:
 Development of integrated model for simulating of land use and
assessment of the impact of land use change on GHG emission
(LANDSHIFT)
Project coordinator
TU Darmstadt - Chair of Material Flow Management and Resource
Economy
Projekt members:
Prof. Dr. Liselotte Schebek (Projekt leadership)
Apl. Prof. Dr. Uwe Lahl (Project leadership until 31.03.2014)
Dr. Jan Mizgajski
Dipl.-Ing. Yalda Cikovani
Dipl.-Ing. Björn Pieprzyk
M.Eng. Rina Resnawati
Dipl.-Ing. agr. Karoline Wowra
Area of expertise:




scenario development
technology assessment
biogenic waste
Life Cycle Assessment
Content
GoViLa: Overview on Research Procedure
Scenarios
 Demand
 Regional
governance
Modelling
 LUC
 C-flows
Goal of the project:
Finding „Room for Manoeuvre“
Regional investigations
Germany and EU: Demand
Indonesia, Brazil, Ukraine: Supply
Issues of research:
Issues of research:
 Development of the demand on
fuel imports:
 Development of the governance
and framework for the production
of biomass in the areas of:
 Future biofuel and technology
mix
 Potential of the waste sector
 Domestic production
Land management and forest
protection
Agriculture
Energy and climate policy/biofuels
General governance
Regions of supply
 Brazil
 Indonesia
 Ukraine/Russia (European part/limited scope of research)
Criteria for choosing „countries of interest“:
Brazil/Indonesia
key biofuel feedstock exporters to the EU
cover major part of today‘s ILUC
Ukraine
favourable climatic and soil conditions for
biofuels feedstock production
General:
High potential marginal improvement rate
expected
Methods: Regional investigations
CIFOR
Country
reports:
•
•
Brazil
Indonesia
TU Darmstadt
Literature assessment
TU Darmstadt
Delphi survey
TU Darmstadt
Explorative interviews
Country
report:
•
•
Ukraine
GER/EU
Online questionnaires
GoViLa
regional
surveys:
•
GER/EU
•
Indonesia
•
Brazil
•
Ukraine
Methods: Scenarios development
Scenario concept
TU Darmstadt
GoViLa
regional
surveys:
•
GER/EU
•
Indonesia
•
Brazil
•
Ukraine
Storylines
Input-data for
Modelling
Methods: Modelling
Landshift
MIRAGE
Calculation of GHG and LUC for different scenario
settings
Methods: Model Toolset
GoViLa: Expected Results
Assessing LUC and GHG resulting from GER/EU biofuel targets
 based on information from regional field investigations
as to governance options
 by use of a model toolset
 in dependence of EU demand scenarios and
regional supply scenarios for 2020
Scenarios and the notion of „possible futures“
Source: http://www.bmu.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/klima_engl_gesamt.pdf
Content
GoViLa: Status of the project
Today‘s Workshop
Scenarios
 Demand
 Regional
governance
12/2012
Modelling
 LUC
 C-flows
State
09/2014
12/2014
GoViLa: Important dates
Save the date!
Web
consultations
10/2014
10/2014
End of the
project
12/2014
12/2014
Final workshop
in Berlin
19/02/2015
tentative date
02/2015

Schebek

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