New Home Sales Greater Toronto Area: 2012 YTD

New Home Sales Greater Toronto Area: 2012 YTD

PMA IN CHINA…
MEANWHILE…BACK IN CANADA…
SO WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET??
New Home Review
High Rise vs Low Rise Comparison
2000-2012
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
Low Rise
20000
High Rise
15000
10000
5000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Low Rise 29980 30851 38419 30884 27413 24352 22173 21252 12302 18190 16393 17482 14069
High Rise 10206 10757 15270 11911 13480 17640 17617 22482 14851 15425 21182 28826 18755
*Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research
2012 Year End Market Review
New Home Review
Low Density New Home Sales & Supply
Greater Toronto Area: 2003 - 2012
5000
14874
15800
16545
18000
16000
14591
14000
12549
4000
SALES
20000
17529
12000
3000
7397
7598
5827
2000
1000
7524
10000
8000
INVENTORY
6000
6000
4000
1602
1066
1149
1141
945
253
920
803
2000
403 0
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
0
947
Low Rise Inventory
*Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research
Low Rise Sales
**Data points shown are from December of respective year
2012 Year End Market Review
New Home Review
High Density New Home Sales & Supply
Greater Toronto Area: 2003 - 2012
6000
25000
20000
14370
13008
13808
15062
14212
12976
15304
15306
15000
3000
10000
2000
2228
5000
1000
616
727
935
695
840
924
198
1082
501 0
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
0
INVENTORY
SALES
4000
20998
20767
5000
High Rise Inventory
*Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research
High Rise Sales
**Data points shown are from December of respective year
2012 Year End Market Review
New Home Review
New Home Sales
Greater Toronto Area: 2012 YTD
6000
5134
Stricter
Mortgage
Rules - July
5000
4013
4000
3550 3461
2792
2696
3000
2516
2266
2070
1931
2000
1242
904
1000
0
CAAMP (The Canadian
Association of Accredited
Mortgage Professionals): 17% of
the high ratio mortgages funded
in 2010 would not qualify today,
including 11% of prospective
high ratio homebuyers who
wouldn’t qualify under the new
25-year amortization rule.
Should rebound for 2013
*Data from RealNet, National Post, & PMA Brethour Research
2012 Year End Market Review
New Home Review
Condo Status Breakdown
GTA: Q3
100%
90%
3%
10%
2%
7%
2%
8%
80%
2%
1%
37%
70%
60%
55%
60%
65%
50%
Registered
40%
Occupying
30%
20%
60%
Pre Construction
32%
31%
Projects
Total Units
Total Sold
Unsold
Registered
12
2000
1808
192
Occupying
36
6708
6338
370
Under Construction
207
56336
49977
6359
Pre Construction
119
28820
18559
10261
10%
0%
Total
374
Under Construction
24%
93864 76682 17182
*Data from Urbanation & PMA Brethour Research
2012 Year End Market Review
New Home Review
Condo Status Breakdown
GTA: 2012
All active
Projects
Units
Sold
Remaining
% Sold
442
103,204
82,563
20,641
80%
Under
PreConstruction Construction
237
60,713
53,427
7,286
88%
*Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research
2012 Year End Market Review
148
32865
20048
12817
61%
National Association of Home Builders
The Nationals Silver Awards
James LoFranco
Rookie of the Year
Sean Richardson
Marketing Director of the Year
Mary Jane Dekort
Celebrating 50 Years of Positive Mental Attitude
1963 – 2013...
ALAN BEAULIEU
Principal, Institute for Trend Research
www. itreconomics.com