Document 6535882

Transcription

Document 6535882

• Vol. I • Issue :12 • Date : 18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008 • Editor : Devlaxmi Joshi • Asso.Editor : Narendra Joshi • Mobile:9825065387 •
•• Address : 115/991, Nirmal Apartment, Telephone Exchange Road, Naranpura, Ahmedabad -380013 • Phone : 27451449 ••
INVESTMENT
GUIDE
12
ANTARYAMI
TECHNICAL
VIEW
2
SUMIT BILGAIYAN
PENIC &
PROFIT
3
NISHES JANI
Despite Several negative factors
Market may rise further next week
The Market at last ended with
positive note for coming week.
The B.S.E. Sensex rose 677.87
points to 17434.94 in the week
ended 16 may4 2008. The Nifty
rose 175.10 points to 5157.70
in the week.
crores.
The Market is likely to be range
bound as there is
no trigger in near
future
except
monsoon which
will start from June
Quarter 4 results of
the corporate are
near to end and
were satisfied published so far.
India’s industrial production
growth dropped sharply to 3%
FII were the net seller so far. In
the month may till 14 May, they
sold share worth of Rs. 529.10
crore while domestic funds sold
shares worth Rs. 739.80 in this
month till 14 may 2008. FII sold
shares worth Rs. 10,887.20
Crude oil prices are hovering at
128 dollar per barrel and analysts forecasting to reach up to
141 Dollar, which is cause of
concern for our economy.
i
n
March 2008,
slowing from the
previous
month’s
unrevised 8.6%. It was the slowest annual growth since 92.4%
Continue on ...3
CHANCES OF FURTHER GAIN BUT RANGEBOUND WEEK
Dear Friends,
of Indices, BSE Sensex rose
697.87 points or 4.17% to
17,434.94 in the week ended
Friday, 16 May 2008. The S&P
CNX Nifty rose 175.10 points
or 3.51% to 5157.70 in the week.
The BSE Mid-Cap index rose
137.04 points or 1.96% at
7,129.70 in the week. The BSE
Small-Cap index rose 114.62
points or 1.35% at 8,620.26.
Previous two weeks we had
seen down trend and on Technical Chart , SENSEX forming
bear trend called Engulfing on
Candlestick pattern, which was
encountered this week by turning into BULLISH pattern
called PIERSING LINE. Any
one who is interested to study
candlestick patterns can log to my Email : [email protected]
yahoo group. We
have uploaded file
which will
Teach you various
candlestick patterns with chart.
This week Sensex
surged 697 points while Nifty
gained 175 points finally closing 17434 and 5157 respectively. If we look at the details
Foreign institutional investors
(FII) have, so far, sold shares
worth Rs 529.10 crore this
month, till 14 May 2008. They
sold shares worth Rs 10,887.20
crore in calendar year 2008, till
14 May 2008. Domestic funds
sold shares worth Rs 639.80 this
month, till 14 May 2008.However, we have seen some net
buying by Local MFS and FIIS
during last few trading sessions.
Inflation spike is still a matter
of concern for the government.
The wholesale price index
rose 7.83% in 12 months to
3 May 2008, higher than
previous week’s annual rise
of 7.61%, government data
released on 16 May 2008,
showed. It was the highest
since an annual reading of
7.93% n 6 November 2004.
The annual inflation rate
was 5.74% during the corresponding week of the previous
year. The government has taken
Continue on ...6
Days of high volatility may
not be witnessed this week
but to hedge the portfolio
and remain 50% in cash is
advisable…crude may
prove cruel!!
The week that shall begin this
time from 20th May shall be just
short and sweet!! The holiday
on 19 th May
shall in all probabilities be a decisive factor as
we shall have
very limited scope to
defend when we open
up on Tuesday 20th May
2008. The week shall
have only four days to
play and the next week
shall again witness the roll over
mania!! Though the volume
are low and does not give any
direction but the put call ratio
is definitely indicative of the
fact that Nifty does get support at 4950 and sensex at
16750 or little below. The
17 th April
2008 u turn
has two repetition and
both identical in one
manner…the
short cover.
The fall of
rupee to a
low of Rs.42.50 shall act as a
positive factor for FIIs who
of late have withdrawn from
Continue on ....11
BULLS EAT INFLATION
FOR DINNER. - 16/05/2008.
rising inflation figures and are
now discounting the fact the
rising inflation coupled with
poor industrial growth figures
have put the Government in a
catch 22 situation. If the
Government
increases
the interest rate
-SHOBHA
t h e n
Email :
growth
will suffer
[email protected]
and will
SHAHENSHAH OF FINANCIAL JUNGLE have to
take
a
came way above expectations, back seat, which it cannot afbulls led the market up. This ford. On the other hand if the
Government reduces interest
time too, it was no different.
rate to boost Industrial growth,
Government in CATCH-22 Situ- then certainly the rising inflation will run faster than even
ation.
It seems bulls have made it a
habit and are feeding themselves on inflation as the inflation keeps on rising unabated
and the food items keep on
getting expensively prohibitive! Last time too,
when the inflation figure
Bulls have started ignoring the
Continue on ...4
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
2
Sumit bilgaiyan is technical &
fundamental analyst. He has vast experience in
the stock market last 6 years.He is regularly
writing article and daily columns in Leading
News papers in Gujarat. He also does PORTFOLIO ADVISORY SERVICES.
E-mail: [email protected]
Mobile-+91 09755261070
Dear Friends,
Despite lot of negative catalyst, we have seen Indices gaining loss of previous week. UN has feared slow down of growth in the global economy.
Likely GDP growth of 1.8 in the global economies is incumbent only on
Asian giants. It is heard in the street that govt intending to relax FDI norms.
At one hand Ministry of Finance is brooding upon relaxing P-note relaxations and restoring to the earlier stage , while IT department preparing to
issue notice to Ponte traders to cover under Tax net. Don’t you think that coordination is lacking within the various government agencies in theist matter?
We have seen net outflow of foreign funds during 2008 after P-note norms
have been tightened. However, recent news state that CCEA ( Cabinet
Committee of Economic Affairs) is likely to relax norms in the matter,
proposing to relax from 1000 crorers from present limit of 600 crorers
requiring an approval from CCEA over and above the FIPB nod. Thus,
Investment limit for additional approval from CCEA to be enhanced to
1000 Drovers INR from present 600 drovers INR will boost fast investment fron some of the Global giants like Coca Cola, Morgan Stanley etc.
It is also heard that govt may hike Petrol diesel rates in coming days. In such
a case it would only drive inflation to the more peaks.
We have also seen news roaring in the media about mega deal between
Bharti and MTN. Godrej making mind to enter into reality sector is one
more news.All such positive news are squared off by single issue
Like Inflation and crude rates making new heights in the global markets.
In such a mixed scenario, we fel that undertone is positive for Indian stock
market, but sustainability is a question. Last week Sensesx tumbled 4.5 %
and we heard further correctin setting in the market. However this week
sensex bounced back again and analyst started talking of more up move.
No one has clear ideas where our market is heading. People have weak
memory, however, if you note down statement flowing on TV channels,
every deay they talk about controversial statements. In the morning they talk
about correction, evening they change statement.We shall avoid following
such analyst who have nothing to loose in any circumstances. They are not
honest
To express their ignorance about market. It is things like a misguiding
people. Better to accept the fact . It will create good impression amongst
viewers. It not necessary that every time you can judge the mood of the
market. When you are not clear about trend, you shall accept the fact!!!
We think that two factors will decide the trend of the market in next few
weeks. First is Inflation. If inflation if under control within the Limit of 6.5
to 7 % and showing down fall, market may gain. Second but not least is
global crude prices. They are historical high. However everything has its
limit. Recent view of nalysts has feared 137/BBL in next few weeks. But at
any point of time saturation is sure to hit the crude speculations. Crude rates
have went high so sharply, that once they start falling, fall would be like a
crash. We foresee 101-111 BBL rates being Flore at which crude rate may
stable in next two three months. This two factors will largely affect the
sentiments of the traders. WE would also watch IIP data which will release
in next week.
If we look at the opinion in general of the market watcher, they opine that
Soaring crude oil prices and back home , a lethal concoction of high inflation , firm interest rates, flagging rupee, tighten monitory policy etc may
keep stock prices in check for next few days. We believe that this may or
may not be depicting sentiments of the market this week. The week that
gone has shown major indices rising 4 % in the face of weak Industrial
output data and mounting inflation.What was the reason ? single reason
being sudden bout of buying by foreign institutional investors ( FIIS )
which tipped the scales in favour of the bulls. Same way we shall think
other scenario also. If economic fundamentals continue to worsen, fund
flow could dry up. Analyst expect that benchmark 30 share Sensex may
trade in a range between 17211-17837 confirming our writers , too.
In nut shell, we would advise you to trade with neutral bias with little
weekly up side
One week market is goes down
and in another week market is
goes up this type of trend we
see in last many weeks and expected this type of volatile
trend continue in coming week
in last we also see a some volatile trend but in last whole we
see a regular uptrend in market in last week sensex rose
nearly 697 points and closes at
17434 and nifty up nearly 175
points and closes at 5157 On
weekly basis we again see good
market but in this midcap &
small cap under perform the
market on weekly basis on
weekly basis BSE MIDCAP
INDEX gain nearly 137 points
and closes at 7129 and on
weekly basis BSE SMALL
CAL INDEX GAINED nearly
114 points and closes at 8620
on a week start on Monday we
see a high volatile trend market open down but in few hour
market goes up an sensex up
nearly 123 points and closes on
Monday at 16860 on Tuesday
taking cuses from global market sensex down nearly 108
points and nifty down nearly
54 points on Tuesday we also
see heavy selling pressure coming in midcap and small cap
index on Wednesday we again
see a nervous start but in last
sensex gained nearly 225 points
and nifty gained nearly 53
points on Thursday we see a
big rally coming in market and
sensex gained nearly 375 points
and nifty rose nearly 103 points
and on last on Friday we see a
flat trend and senex gained
nearly 81 and nifty rose nearly
42 points for coming week
market is again high volatile
important resistance for sensex
is 17950 above this level next
target for sensex Is at 18100
and for coming week important support for sensex is at
17200 below expected some
fall in market is volatile for
coming week .
MARKET TREND FOR
THIS WEEK
Trend and exit your holdings at the end of the week.
Narendra Joshi
Assocoate Editor
Market is again High volatile
for this week if sensex break
the important Support of 16500
then we see again big fall in
market and for this week important resistance is at 17250
below this level we expected
some buying coming in market for this week market is
again high volatile
For this sensex resistance is at
17540-17705-17820 above this
above this level next resistance
is at 17950 in down side support is at 17260-17125-17020
below this level next support
is at 16840 Market is High
volatile for this week.
For this week nifty resistance
is at 5210-5280-5390 above
this level next resistance is at
5420 in down side support is
at 5100-5060-4980 below this
level next support is at
4520.market is High volatile
for this week.
STAR OF THE WEEK
Niit tech — In volatile market
on Friday stock close with
positive notes with huge volume expansion also with big
gain in last week stock recovers smartly from 130 levels it
has has huge potentional to go
upto165 in coming week buy
at current levels at 151 with a
upper target of 166 to 172
above this level next target is
at 176 stoploss 130 .Stock is
also good for short term investment.
Aban off -Buy at current levels at 3880 with a upper target
of 3920 to 3980 above 3980
Next target is 4000 with a
stoploss of 3680.
Cam solu -The stock is looking good for coming week
there is upside potentional till
around at 66 and very little
down side with a strong support 52 keep a tight stoploss
of 52 and start covering at 64.
STOCK FOR THIS WEEK
BUY AT
TARGET
COMPANY
Aban off
Jindal steel
Great off
Sandur man
Tamil petro
3880
2400
699
884
19
STOPLOSS
3920 to 3960
2450 to 2500
720 to 740
900
24 to26
3720
2350
658
920
15
F & O STOCK FOR THIS WEEK
BUY AT
TARGET STOPLOSS
COMPANY
Aban off fut
Bpcl fut
Jsw steel fut
Great off fut
Niit tech fut
3880
358
1110
700
151
C O M PA N Y
Eid parryRas pro lami
Facor alloyIndsil electro
Mro tek
3920 to 3950
365 to 375
1150 to1180
720 to 740
156 to 165
3740
340
1050
675
140
STOCK FOR SHORT TERM
BUYAT
TARGET
STOPLOSS
208
3
11
78
78
225 to 250
4 to 5
14 to 16
95 to 110
90 to 100
For free Daily Intraday,
SHORT-TERM ,
WEEKLY LONG-TERM &
F & O RECOMMENDATION
Log On to www.thebulleyes.com
185
2
9
60
55
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
3
WEEKLY REPORT CARD
[20th to 24rd May 2008 ]
THE HEIGHT OF POSSIBILITY!
Sensex-11192.46 which was in august
2006
Nifty future-3896.90 which was in April
2007
of the Dow will confirm so at this point I
suggest to every one be a day trader and
don’t hold any long positions or short
positions overnight.
GLOBAL MARKET TREND:
Mcx gold-8739 which was on august
2008
Us dollar-43.44 which was on April 2007
(Don’t panic on this, this is just result of
analysis and it may or may not possible)
Dow Jones- index has strong trend line
resistance of 13100 if it close above then
it will confirm the
“inverse head and
shoulder “pattern and
will fire to 13800.
Suggestions/query/comment mails us at
[email protected]
While support exists
at 12916 and below
12702 and there after last hope of
12489.
SENSEX-in the last
week report support
was given at 16571
and index made intra day low of
16546 and rebound towards
17500 levels but
index could not
cross our resistance of 17515.
In the next few days index has strong resistance at 17515 if index close above
that levels for 2 consecutive days then
index will scale to 18288 and even to
18510.
While support exists at 17323 and 17015
below that levels it will slide to 16804
below that 16271.
NIFTY FUTURE-what we have written
in our last week report –index has strong
support of 4933 like of “iron” Monday
index has made low of 4923 hardly index stays 4-5 minute below that levels
and then re-bound and on Wednesday
index has made low of 4932.50 and then
re-bound .
NASDAQ-support
of 2439 was given
on Monday index
made low of 2446
and rebound and
crossed 2500 mark.
For the next few days index has strong
support of 2508 and 2439 and resistance
at 2592 which we will called as “iron
“resistance.
Nikkei –keep close eye on the resistance
of 14569 .two close above will create
unexpected buying………..
Two support one of 13612 of “swing”
and 13222 of “gap”
Hang sang-if index close below two consecutive days then will bled to 23309.
While on the upper side “swing” resistance at 27519.
POWER OF FREE STOCK IDEA-
In the next few days index has strong resistance of 5194 if index close two consecutive days then it will fire to 5308
and above that 5405.
Join our free club to get market outlook/
fno/day trading and delivery based call
and analysis of global market and commodity market.
While support exists at 4933 two close
below will slide to 4835 and below to
multiple supports to 4621.
Type in mobile
TABLE OF IMORTANT LEVELS:
INDEX
Sensex
nifty fu
SUPPORT
17323/17015
16804
16271
4933
4835/4621
RESISTANCE
17515
18288
18510
5194
5308/5405
JOIN FREESTOCKIDEA AND SEND TO
567673434.
EVERY THING IS FREE.
Market Summery Conti. from ...1
rise in February, 2002.
The wholesale price index rose 7.83 in
12 months to 3 May, 2008, higher than
previous week’s annual rise of 7.61%. It
was the highest since an annual reading
of 7.93 on November, 2004.
STRATEGY – Dow Jones again fails to
cross and close above 13100 which is
our trend line resistance –if Dow closes
above 13100 then it will confirm the “inverse head and shoulder” then it will fire
to 13800.
India’s rupee fell to the lowest level since
April 2007 to 42.445 per dollar on 14th
May, 2008.
Indian market is fully dependant on the
us market so let us see how the Dow behave weather on the up side or on the
down side because this week there is lots
of things and data to come and the move
For the near term market likely to range
bound and stock specific trades.
Investor’s advice to invest in good fundamental stocks at decline and be keeps
booking profit at higher level.
Brigade â•”Buy at current levels with
a upper target of 225 to 234 it has important support is at 200 below this
level next support is at 194 if it break
the level of 194 then we see some fall
in brigade take stoploss of 201.
Hydrebad indâ•”looking explosive on
chart buy at current levels at 204 it has
strong support is at 188 keeping a
stoploss of 191 on weekly basis take a
target of 214 to 220 above 224 it will
zoom upto 238 .
Suzlon energy fut â•”Buy at 308 with
a target of 315 to 320 with a tight
stoploss 295 below 292 expected some
bearish trend in suzlon.
Ril fut â•“Buy at lower levels considering 2625 to 2610 with a upper target
of 2650 to 2665 with a stoploss of
2580.
Fundamental Stock
Agro dutch industries
Based in Chandigarh-based Rs 144
crore Agro Dutch Industries Limited
(ADIL), is among the
country’s large food
processing companies
and India ‘s largest
mushroom producer.
How large? Well they
produced around 3000
ton in 1992 and had a
mere increase to 50000
ton today. Ok, its not
mere, its huge, accounting for about
85% of country’s mushroom production and exports. Did I mention that
they are the world’s largest integrated
mushroom producer, with an average
daily production of 125MTAgro Dutch
exports 95% of its production. Of this
US accounts for 70%, Israel 20% and
other countries like Canada, Mexico,
Russia and Taiwan account for 5%.
ADIL is also amongst the finest manufacturer of packaging material namely
cans.Major productsAgro Dutch Industries Limited operates mainly in two
categories namely, white button mushroom
cultivation
and
can
manufacturing.Mushroom Cultivation
ADIL is located in Punjab , which is
arguably one of the most fertile states
in India and produces 80% of India ‘s
wheat. Wheat straw is the most vital
substrate for mushroom growing. Every batch of compost is monitored in
exactness for various physical and
chemical parameters. The company has
133 climate controlled concrete growing rooms to ensure that mushrooms
are available each day. Farm fresh
healthy mushrooms, canned everyday,
all year round, ensuring unflinching
consistency, uncompromising quality,
and the highest level of food safety.
Continuity comes with a lot of factors
in the mushroom cultivation business.
These are namely, a perennial supply
of the right compost substrate growing
round the year -365 days, fresh packing everyday, control over the input
quality of cans and an integrated facility. The mushrooms are canned within
a few hours of picking. This mean no
brine packâ•¦ always freshly canned
mushrooms. The state of the art canning line of the company has been
brought in from specialists in Holland
, France and Taiwan . The objectives
are complete safety. The canning process is controlled by a detailed HACCP
program, designed and monitored by
Process Authority- International Food
Technology.
Can Manufacturing The performance
of a can is a complex interaction of food
constituents, canning practices and storage parameters on one hand and the entire can manufacturing system on the
other hand. The can and its contents
must be therefore considered together
as a unit. Thus, it is truly a package
deal. This is what Agro Dutch is, on of
India ‘s largest canners and also the finest can makers.
Having bought cans
from several overseas
and domestic can makers, the main endeavor
has been to make the
right can and reduce the
variability from can to
can. Generally, the can
cost may contribute up to a fifth of the
total product cost. So, it really made
sense to get the best can available. Although, it is first a can filler and then
as a can maker. At the same time the
tolerance are plummeting towards zero
defects. This necessarily entails right
first time, right every time and real
time Quality Assurance. The company
believes in emphasizing off-line control to an extent whereby the on-line
control becomes only a back up. The
best of the raw materials, elaborate
SQC techniques and process capability
studies are used for continuous process
improvement. Prime quality tinplate is
imported from established names such
as Rasselstein ,
Germany And Nippon Japan . High
quality packaging coatings are used
from ICI who back it up with expert
technical assistance. All this contributes to ADIL’s endeavor to become one
of the leading can manufacturers in
India .
Fundamentally, this company has
shown sustained and consistant growth
with impressive expansion plans.
BUY AT 29 WITH A SHORT TERM
TO LONG TERM TARGET 55
STOPLOSS 20
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
4
Lion’s Roar Conti. from ...1
now. This, being an election year, the Government can ill afford to
take such a huge risk. Thus the Government can neither afford an
interest rate hike to control the inflation nor let the industrial production suffer and let the growth slow down. Therefore the Government, at best, can do what it is famous for, i.e do nothing.
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS.
Nifty futures have been adding open interest and the price has been
rising. The short covering rally is now aided by more buying in the
futures segment. The Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio is showing
market improvement and is currently at 1.47. The high ratio just
infuses more confidence in the market. It indicates good support on
the down side. Nifty Puts of strikes 4900 and 5000 have added lot
of open interest, indicating good support at these prices. Nifty 5400
strikes have seen lot of call writing and will be difficult to cross.
Stocks like Tata Tea, Chambal Fertilisers, SCI, Mahindra Life,
Matrix and Hindustan Construction have seen strong addition in
open interest with increase in price and in volume indicating long
build up.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
Sensex and Nifty have both crossed and closed above strong
trendline resistances and thus have started short and medium term
uptrend. The long term uptrend is on the verge of turning positive
as the Sensex and Nifty are just below the 200dma, which is at
17490 and 5187 for the Sensex and Nifty respectively. For the
purists, both Sensex and Nifty have made higher bottoms and let us
see if both Sensex and Nifty can register higher tops as well.
Sensex has moved up leaving a gap behind between 17079-17014.
Sensex has taken strong support at the trendline, from where it had
rebounded twice in the past, and now is at 16859. Similarly Nifty
had taken support at the trendline from where it has rebounded
twice and is currently lying at 4990. On the higher side strong
trendline resistance will be at 17543 and 17639 for the Sensex , and
for the Nifty, trendline resistance falls at 5251 and 5280. Sensex is
aiming for a target of 17942 and 18712, whereas the Nifty is gunning for target of 5403 and 5626.
Last Week's Recommendations:
It was 100%. On the dot with precision !!! Bharat Forge, ITC,
Gitanjali and Nicholas Piramal all reached their higher targets.
Recommendations for the Week:
Redington 374 SL 361 Tgt 390-413.
Tata Tea 947 SL 926 Tgt 969-1014.
Nalco 525 SL 511 Tgt 545-567-622.
ENIL 430 SL 418 Tgt 456-470-508.
Guj NRE Coke 157 SL 152 Tgt 168-174.
Interesting formations in the Stocks:
1. Gujarat Alkalies 189.
It has given a cup
and
handle
breakout. The indicators are suggesting strong up
with targets of
208-241. The targets will be
achieved as long
as the stock stays
above 179.
2. Entertainment Network ENIL 430.
Entertainment
Network
has
given
strong
t r e n d l i n e
breakout. It has
targets of 470508. Keep Stop
Loss of 418 and
enjoy the ride.
Buy around Rs. 185.00 & sell around
Rs. 220.00 for short term.
strategy. One is our corporate
R&D team which has 600 engineers working on optical media,
photovoltaic and other things &
100-plus engineers in Moser
Baer Photovoltaic. And thirdly
invested in R&D centres abroad
which gives us access to latest
technologies.
New Delhi-based optical storage device maker Moser Baer
India expects next-generation
optical disc storage media format Blue-ray to be a ‘key factor’ in reviving the growth of
the optical business.
The optical media business is
going through severe pricing
pressures due to a difficult
supply-demand scenario after
the royalty dispute between
Philips and Moser’s Taiwanese
competitors led to overcapacity. From the pricing perspective, Blue-ray seems poised for
growth. There is only one product on the horizon for this format. It’s only Blue-ray now as
Toshiba has dropped HD DVD
production
A dual layer Blue-ray disc can
store 50 GB of data, almost six
times the capacity of a dual
layer DVD & Company was
“very well” positioned to capture incremental market share
in the Blue-ray segment. This
segment is expected to sell 200
million units by 2009.
Company have 17%-18% market share in the optical media
format & expecting similar
market share in the Blue-Ray
Business too. optical media
business to provide “$70-80
million of cash by next year
despite the current pricing environment
Meanwhile, Moser Baer’s solar cell unit Photo Voltaic is
ready to receive funding of
$400 million in fiscal 2009 and
to ramp up growth through capacity expansion. Moser Baer
Photovoltaic, the solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing arm
of optical storage disk maker
Moser Baer, is in the final
stages of discussions with a
few state governments to set up
a greenfield manufacturing facility. The company, which is
adding capacity to produce
500 MW of solar power by
2010, expects $1.5 billion in
revenues from the solar energy
segment.
The company, which currently
has capacity for 40 MW, is
doubling it by the first quarter
of the next fiscal. By the turn
of the decade, it would have capacity for half a billion giga watt
of solar power, for which it
would have invested close to $1
billion.
In order to push for a greater penetration, the company is mulling forward integration by entering into solar farms. The company is also investing in research
and development (R&D) to develop nanotechnology-based
products like quantum dots
which can be used in exterior
paint to power buildings.
In
two-three
years,
nanotechnology would be a significant source in solar energy
& have a three-pronged R&D
Company having optical disc
business as well as entertainment movie business of cd & dvd
diversifying into Power sector
.Buy around Rs. 185.00 & sell
around Rs. 220.00 for short term.
Market talk
Inflation for the week ended May 3 is at 7.83% versus 7.61%. The
inflation for the week ended March 8 has been revised to 7.78%
versus 5.92% (provisional number).
The food articles Index is up 0.5%; the fuel and power Index is up
0.8%, while the manufactured products Index is up 0.3%.
The figure of 8% could be around the corner for the economy
because the present inflation level has been higher than the consensus expectation. I would personally think that trying to get
the currency to appreciate or at least prevent it from depreciating
very sharply is clearly one option, because as far as commodity
prices are concerned, there is a one-to-one correspondence between the exchange rate and the landed cost. it was more of the
food prices that went up and that would make it very difficult for
monetary policy to bring down inflation.
I expects markets to read bearishly into these numbers and the
bullishness that came with the credit policy will fizzle out as
readings continue to be higher and the market’s concern on inflation will be quite high. In this case he doesn’t rule out a further
CRR hike by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the rest of
the year with a possibility of a 25 bps minimum and even a 50 bps
hike.
Market close very high in last week due to spurt in Ranbaxy Lab,
RELIANCE & Llt, Infosys , tcs . Satayam comp.
Watch out for next week Moser baer, K SERA SERA, pnc & rpl
Eagle’s Eye Conti. from ...10
per ckt. at 47, Assam Company at 25 & today it has
hit upper ckt. At 36.40,
Chambal Fert. At 70 & 72
Having faced margin pressure in
its core optical storage devices,
Moser Baer diversified into solar energy a few years ago and is
investing heavily in the sector.
It has a facility in NCR (National
Capacity Region) and is also
setting up a renewal energy SEZ
(special economic zone) there.
solar energy is a fast-growing
sector, with the global market
size reaching $12-15 billion by
2010 from about $4 billion expected this year. India would
be a significant player though
the cumulative capacity is 100
MW currently.
and it has touched
80+………. We hope many
investors has taken benefit
of
our
recommenda-
tions…..
To Get Free Intraday Trading and Delivery Calls add
our
Yahoo
ID
:
par_18_2000
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
5
An Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Charting
by Erik Gebhard
CONTINUED
FROM ISSUE 10
NOTE : DUE TO
UNSUFFICIENT
SPACE IT COULD
NOT TAKEN IN ISSUE 11, SO IT CONTINUE IN THIS ISSUE
THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST
OF
SOME
INDIVIDUAL
CANDLESTICK TERMS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REALIZE
THAT MANY FORMATIONS
OCCUR WITHIN THE CONTEXT
OF PRIOR CANDLESTICKS.
WHAT FOLLOWS IS MERELY A
DEFINITION OF TERMS, NOT
FORMATIONS.
· THE BLACK CANDLESTICK — WHEN THE CLOSE IS
A CANDLESTICK WITH NO
LOWER SHADOW.
· SPINNING TOPS —
CANDLESTICKS WITH SMALL
REAL BODIES, AND WHEN APPEARING WITHIN A SIDEWAYS CHOPPY MARKET,
THEY REPRESENT EQUILIB-
THE LENGTH OF THE REAL
BODY, AND THERE SHOULD
BE NO OR VERY LITTLE UPPER
SHADOW. THE BODY MAY BE
EITHER BLACK OR WHITE,
BUT THE KEY IS THAT THIS
CANDLESTICK MUST OCCUR
WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A
RIUM BETWEEN THE BULLS
AND THE BEARS. THEY CAN
BE EITHER WHITE OR BLACK.
· DOJI LINES — HAVE NO
REAL BODY, BUT INSTEAD
HAVE A HORIZONTAL LINE.
THIS REPRESENTS WHEN THE
DOWNTREND TO BE CONSIDERED A HAMMER. THE MARKET MAY BE “HAMMERING”
OUT A BOTTOM.
· HANGING MAN — IDENTICAL IN APPEARANCE TO
THE HAMMER, BUT APPEARS
WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF AN
UPTREND.
· ENGULFING PATTERNS —
BULLISH — WHEN A WHITE,
REVERSAL
FORMATION
WHERE THE FIRST DAY OF
THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A
STRONG WHITE, REAL BODY.
THE SECOND DAY’S PRICE
OPENS ABOVE THE TOP OF
THE UPPER SHADOW OF THE
PRIOR CANDLESTICK, BUT
THE CLOSE IS AT OR NEAR
THE LOW OF THE DAY, AND
WELL INTO THE PRIOR WHITE,
REAL BODY.
· PIERCING PATTERN
(BULLISH) — OPPOSITE OF
IS A BULLISH BOTTOM REVERSAL PATTERN. THE FORMATION IS COMPRISED OF 3
CANDLESTICKS. THE FIRST
CANDLESTICK IS A TALL
BLACK REAL BODY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND, A
SMALL REAL BODY, WHICH
GAPS (OPENS), LOWER (A STAR
PATTERN).
THE
THIRD
CANDLESTICK IS A WHITE
REAL BODY THAT MOVES
WELL INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD’S BLACK REAL BODY.
THE DARK-CLOUD COVER.
OCCURS
WITHIN
A
DOWNTREND. THE FIRST
CANDLESTICK HAVING A
BLACK, REAL BODY, AND THE
SECOND HAS A LONG, WHITE,
REAL BODY. THE WHITE DAY
OPENS SHARPLY LOWER, UNDER THE LOW OF THE PRIOR
BLACK DAY. THEN, PRICES
CLOSE ABOVE THE 50% POINT
OF THE PRIOR DAY’S BLACK
REAL BODY.
STARS
THESE CANDLESTICK FOR-
THIS IS SIMILAR TO AN ISLAND
PATTERN ON STANDARD BAR
CHARTS.
· EVENING STAR -- A BEARISH TOP REVERSAL PATTERN
AND COUNTERPART TO THE
MORNING STAR. THREE
CANDLESTICKS COMPOSE
THE EVENING STAR, THE
FIRST BEING LONG AND
WHITE. THE SECOND FORMS
LOWER THAN THE OPEN.
· THE WHITE CANDLE-
STICK — WHEN THE CLOSE IS
HIGHER THAN THE OPEN.
· THE SHAVEN HEAD — A
CANDLESTICK WITH NO UPPER SHADOW.
· THE SHAVEN BOTTOM —
OPEN AND CLOSE ARE THE
SAME OR VERY CLOSE. THE
LENGTH OF THE SHADOW
CAN VARY.
CANDLESTICK REVERSAL
PATTERNS
JUST AS MANY TRADERS
LOOK TO BAR CHARTS FOR
DOUBLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS, HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS, AND TECHNICAL INDICATORS FOR REVERSAL SIGNALS, SO TOO CAN CANDLESTICK FORMATIONS BE
LOOKED UPON FOR THE
SAME PURPOSE. A REVERSAL
DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN
THAT
THE
CURRENT
UPTREND/DOWNTREND WILL
REVERSE DIRECTION, BUT
MERELY THAT THE CURRENT
DIRECTION MAY END. THE
MARKET MAY THEN DECIDE
TO
DRIFT
SIDEWAYS.
CANDLESTICK REVERSAL
PATTERNS MUST BE VIEWED
WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF
PRIOR ACTIVITY TO BE EFFECTIVE. IN FACT, IDENTICAL
CANDLESTICKS MAY HAVE
DIFFERENT MEANINGS DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY
OCCUR WITHIN THE CONTEXT
OF PRIOR TRENDS AND FORMATIONS.
· HAMMER — A CANDLESTICK WITH A LONG LOWER
SHADOW AND SMALL REAL
BODY.
THE
SHADOW
SHOULD BE AT LEAST TWICE
REAL BODY TOTALLY COVERS, “ENGULFS” THE PRIOR
DAY’S REAL BODY. THE MARKET SHOULD BE IN A DEFINABLE TREND, NOT CHOPPING
AROUND SIDEWAYS. THE
SHADOWS OF THE PRIOR
CANDLESTICK DO NOT NEED
TO BE ENGULFED.
· BEARISH — WHEN A
BLACK, REAL BODY TOTALLY
COVERS, “ENGULFS” THE
PRIOR DAY’S REAL BODY.
THE MARKET SHOULD BE IN
A DEFINABLE TREND, NOT
CHOPPING AROUND SIDEWAYS. THE SHADOWS OF THE
PRIOR CANDLESTICK DO NOT
NEED TO BE ENGULFED.
·
DARK-CLOUD
COVER(BEARISH) — A TOP
MATIONS CONSIST OF A
SMALL REAL BODY THAT
GAPS AWAY FROM THE REAL
BODY PRECEDING IT. THE
REAL BODY OF THE STAR
SHOULD NOT OVERLAP THE
PRIOR REAL BODY. THE
COLOR OF THE STAR IS NOT
TOO IMPORTANT, AND THEY
CAN OCCUR AT EITHER TOPS
OR BOTTOMS. STARS ARE THE
EQUIVALENT OF GAPS ON
STANDARD BAR CHARTS.
STARS MAKE UP PART OF
FOUR SEPARATE REVERSAL
PATTERNS:
1.
MORNING STAR
2.
EVENING STAR
3.
DOJI STAR
4.
SHOOTING STAR (INVERTED HAMMER)
· MORNING STAR — THIS
A STAR, FOLLOWED BY THE
THIRD, WHICH HAS A BLACK
REAL BODY THAT MOVES
SHARPLY INTO THE FIRST
WHITE CANDLESTICK.
· DOJI STARS — WHEN A
DOJI GAPS ABOVE A REAL
BODY IN AN UPTREND, OR
GAPS UNDER A REAL BODY
IN A FALLING MARKET, THAT
PARTICULAR DOJI IS CALLED
A DOJI STAR. TWO POPULAR
DOJI STARS ARE THE EVENING
STAR AND THE MORNING
STAR.
· EVENING DOJI STAR — A
DOJI STAR IN AN UPTREND
FOLLOWED BY A LONG,
BLACK REAL BODY THAT
CLOSED WELL INTO THE
PRIOR WHITE REAL BODY. IF
THE CANDLESTICK AFTER
THE DOJI STAR IS WHITE AND
Continue on ....7
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
6
Conti. from ...1
a slew of fiscal measures such as
ban on export of cement and
non-basmati rice, cut in import
duty on some items and imposition of export duty on some steel
items to rein in rising prices.
If we look at the all industries
composite till date, figures are
as under: DATA TAKEN that of
LISTED COMPANIES ON BSE.
Operating Profit Margin - Full
Year (%) :
20.7
Gross Profit Margin - Full Year
(%) :
15.0
P/C Ratio :
16.8
P/E Ratio :
17.6
Dividend Yield - Audited (%) :
*******
Price/Book Value Ratio - Latest
:
2.84
Total Market Capitalization 15408
Companies : Rs
.5794164.20 Cr.
P/E forward one year compared
to Asian peers still is at higher
levels
In parity of GDP growth likely
to fall around 8.2 for the year
2008-2009.
Global Markets: 16-05-208
Most of the Asian Indices end
their week with a broader advance taking a clue from after
an overnight progress on Wall
Street. On Wall Street, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average gained
94.28 points to end at 12,992.66
and the S&P 500 index climbed
14.91 points to 1,423.57. The
Nasdaq Composite rose 37.03
points
to
2,533.73
Nikkei 225 Average of Japan
rose as high as 14,392.53 before
slipping back to a low of
14,211.26. It ended marginally
down by 0.2% at 14,219.48,
while the broader Topix index
climbed 0.2% to 1,395.87.
On the economic front, Japan’s
economy grew for the third
straight quarter in the January
to March period on the back of
robust exports and a pickup in
private residential investment,
beating expectations. The gross
domestic product (GDP) rose a
price-adjusted 0.8% on quarter,
after growing by a revised 0.6%
in the October-December period.
On an annualized basis, GDP
increased by 3.3%, compared
with 2.6% growth a quarter earlier. The headline figures were
better than the 0.7% on-quarter
increase, or annualized 2.8%
gain.
Japanese machine tool orders
rose a revised 0.4% on year in
April to Y128.2 billion. The result was above the preliminary
reading of 0.3% released earlier
this month. In April, orders from
overseas rose 8.1% on year to
Y74 billion, while domestic orders slipped 8.5% to Y54.2 billion.
South Korea’s import prices advanced at their fastest pace in
10 years in April after international prices of crude oil and
other commodities soared to
record levels.
As per the data released by Bank
of Korea the import prices
surged 31.3 percent in April
from a year ago, the steepest rise
since May 1998 when prices
jumped 31.9 percent. Compared
to March, import prices rose 3.8
percent in April, after accelerating 8.2 percent in March from
Meanwhile, Japanese consumer
confidence fell to a fresh fiveyear low level in April
due to worries about a Email : [email protected]
weakening economy,
employment and wage
conditions and rising
consumer prices. The
consumer confidence
index slid to 35.2 in
April, hitting its lowest
level since March 2003
when it stood at 34.7, and down February, as the won’s depreciafrom 36.7 in March, the Cabinet tion against the U.S. dollar
Office said.
slowed.
Industrial output in Japan fell a
revised 3.4% on month in
March, worse than the 3.1% decline initially reported two
weeks ago, the government said
Friday.
According to the revised data
from the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry the shipments slipped 3.9% during the
month, while inventories gained
0.1%. The March factory-operating ratio decreased 3.5% from
the
previous
month.
Chinese stocks in Shanghai were
unsettled and moved between
positive and negative territories
in the aftermath of major earthquake in the Sichuan province
recently, while Hong Kong
listed stocks advanced after
posting declines in the previous
two sessions.
Shanghai Composite of China
slipped 0.4% to 3,624.23, after
rising as high as 3,661.07 earlier in the day. The Hang Seng
Index advanced 0.7% to
25,693.25 in Hong Kong, while
the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 1.1% to
14,185.98.
Shares of BHP Billiton jumped
to push Australian indexes
higher, after local media reported that China has approached an Australian fund to
partner in a multibillion-dollar
attempt to buy a 9% stake in the
mining giant. Australia’s S&P/
ASX 200-index ended 0.7% up
to 5,931 after breaching the psychologically important 6,000point level earlier in the day.
Kospi of South korea advanced
0.2% to 1,888.88. However
A weaker won against the U.S.
dollar pushes Korean companies’ import bills. Prices of raw
materials, including crude oil
and natural gas, rocketed 58.5
percent from a year ago in April,
after jumping 56.4 percent in
March. South Korea is the
world’s fifth-largest crude oil
buyer and relies entirely on imports for its oil needs
NZX 50 index of New Zealand
added 1.2% to 3,657.20 and
Singapore’s Straits Times index
added 1.3% to 3,248.55, while
Taiwan’s weighted index firmed
up 0.4% to 9,197.41.
Jakarta Composite Index of
Indonasia was up by 0.8% to
2,468.84; Malaysia’s KLSE
Composite Index was up by
0.5% to 1,300.67.
In the afternoon trading India’s
Sensitive Index, or Sensex,
gained by 1.7% to 17,412.60
and the broader S&P/CNX Nifty
rose 0.6% to 5,143.85 .In Asian
currency trading, the U.S. dollar
slipped to 104.60 yen from
104.64 yen in New York late
Thursday.
June crude-oil futures rose as
much as 18 cents to $124.30 a
barrel in electronic trading, after finishing 10 cents lower at
$124.12 a barrel Thursday on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Carrying the clues from the
Asian markets the European
markets opened with a rise. Of
national indexes, the U.K. FTSE
100 index climbed 0.4% to
6,277.60, the German DAX 30index rose 0.7% to 7,132.57 and
the French CAC-40 index rose
0.5% to 5,083.87.
Close : 301
Meanwhile, Italy’s trade deficit
widened in March as exports fell
more sharply than imports. The
trade deficit totaled EUR545
million in March, compared with
a deficit of EUR127 million a
year earlier. In February, the
trade deficit narrowed to
EUR408 million from EUR1.87
billion, rebounding from
January’s steep decline. In
March, exports fell 3.8% on the
year and 2.9% on the month.
Imports fell 2.5% on the year and
0.3% on the month.
Stop Loss: 297
Looking at the day ahead
we have power packed
data calendar starting
with trade balance data
for Euro zone preceded
by Trichet’s speech. In
the evening we have
building permits and housing
starts for U.S followed by
Reuters consumer sentiment index for May.
Indian market scenario :
As we said at the onset, we believe that next week we can see
further up move if Nifty do not
slip below support level of 5087
and Sensex sustained above
17157. In above case we can see
next Nifty target of 5302-5399
and Sensex target of 1771117988. We also believe that
Crude may fall sharply around
the level of 137-141/BBL. In
such case, our economy would
be at ease. Good monsoon can
prove to be an catalyst for the
Sensex pushing towards 18357
levels which is maximum outer
context of the short term target
on Fibonacci Chart.
The way small and Mid cap
stocks are cornered during last
few trading sessions, we feel that
movements would continue in
selective Mid-Cap stocks. It
looks that operators are warehousing good mid-cap stocks for
prospective FII clients. We advise to take positions in good
mid-cap stocks.
Target : 308-315 on Tuesday.
Weekly target can be 317-335
(2) Reliance :
Turning to be a market leader
since last few days. Sizable volumes are taking place in this
fancy stock.
Close : 2635
Stop Loss:2621
Target : 2657-2673 in two days.
Weekly target can be 2711-2792
Hold this stock till indices are
pulling up.
(3) Sunil Hi-tech
Interest and boom in power sector has given this stock pack order book positions. At the closing of 289 on Friday, we see
good upward move in next few
days. Buy this stock for handsome gains
Close : 289
Stop Loss :286
Target : 300 in two days and 650
in one year if can cross strong
resistance level of 417
(4) MALCO
Close : 880.
Stop Loss : 877
This stock has reached this level
from 701 in few trading sessions.
From low of 701 on 29-April2008, this stock made top of 948
on Friday closing finally at 880.
Take charge of this stock only if
survive above last closing. Else
wait to enter at support level of
845-809 for
Target around 945-1027
(5) TEXMACO
Close : 1629
Stop Loss : 1618
Target : 1691-1753
Weekly Trading Ideas :
(6) Escorts
China is the largest producer of
Aluminum and production facilities at china are said to be
disturbed due to recent massive
earth quake.
Close : 106
Hindalco, Nalco, madras aluminum are the best bid for next few
days.
High Risk Circuit Candidates :
Madras aluminum is candidate
for stock split which will improve sentiments further.
(1) CAIRN :
Moving up since last few days.
Still can surge further.
Stop Loss :104
Target : 114-121
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Tamilnadu
Petro
Hyderabad
Ind
Assam
Company
Assam Petrochem
Rohit
Ferro
Upsurge
Invest
MSP
Steel
Andrew
Yule
B r i g a d e
Cambridge
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
1) ABAN OFFSHORE (
3889.65 ) :- In this scrip
near term support at 3883
and buy with the stop loss of
3876 on the upper side first
target is 3897 then Rs. 3906
- 3914 to 3922.
2) ADANI ENTER ( 858.50
):- In this scrip near term
support at 853 and buy
with the stop loss of 846
on the upper side first target
is 864 then Rs. 869 - 875
to 882 .
6) DR. REDDY ( 650.20 ) :In this scrip near term support
at 644 and buy with the stop
loss of 639 on the upper side
first target is 656 then Rs. 662
- 669 to 678.
10) HPCL. ( 247.20 ) :- In
this scrip near term support at
243 and buy with the stop loss
of 239 on the upper side first
target is 252 then Rs. 257 263 to 268 .
7) EDELWEISS CAP.(
797.45 ) :- In this scrip near
term support at 791 and buy
with the stop loss of 785 on
the upper side first target is
806 then Rs. 818 - 830 to
844.
11) I-FLEX. ( 1398.90 ) :- In
of 1384 on the upper side
first target is 1406 then Rs.
1413 - 1422 to 1428.
8) FINANCIAL
3)
BHARAT
ELECT ( 1265.10 )
:- In this scrip near
term support at
1257 and buy with
the stop loss of 1251
on the upper side
first target is 1272
then Rs. 1280 1292 to 1304.
4) CENTURY TEXT (
823 then Rs. 830 - 838 to
845.
5) COLGATE PALM (
with the stop loss of 436
on the upper side first target
is 452 then Rs. 457 - 463
to 470.
Japanish Charting
Conti. from ....5
GAPPED HIGHER, THE BEARISHNESS OF THE DOJI IS INVALIDATED.
· MORNING DOJI STAR —
A
DOJI
STAR
IN
A
DOWNTREND FOLLOWED BY
A LONG, WHITE REAL BODY
THAT CLOSES WELL INTO THE
PRIOR BLACK REAL BODY. IF
THE CANDLESTICK AFTER
THE DOJI STAR IS BLACK AND
GAPPED
LOWER,
THE
BULLISHNESS OF THE DOJI IS
INVALIDATED.
· SHOOTING STAR — A
SMALL REAL BODY NEAR THE
LOWER END OF THE TRADING
RANGE, WITH A LONG UPPER
SHADOW. THE COLOR OF THE
7
12) L & T ( 2996.35 ) :- In
3018 - 3032 to 3048.
13) ONGC ( 950.90 ) :- In
of 938 on the upper side first
target is 964 then Rs. 970 978 to 985.
TECH ( 1774.20 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at
1790 - 1797 to 1804.
9) FUTURE CAP HOLD (
550 then Rs. 558 - 564 to
571 .
BODY IS NOT CRITICAL. NOT
USUALLY CONSIDERED A
MAJOR REVERSAL SIGN,
ONLY A WARNING.
· INVERTED HAMMER—
NOT REALLY A STAR, BUT
DOES LOOK LIKE A SHOOT-
ING STAR. WHEN OCCURRING WITHIN A DOWNTREND,
MAY BE A TURNING SIGNAL.
BODY COLOR IS NOT CRITICAL.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND
CREDITS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT THIS INTRODUCTION IS JUST THAT, AN INTRODUCTION TO CANDLESTICK
ANALYSIS. AFTER HAVING
READ THIS, YOU WILL HAVE
14) REL CAPITAL (
1385.20) :- In this scrip near
1393 then Rs. 1402 - 1412
to 1422.
15) SESA GOA ( 4285.90 )
:- In this scrip near term support at 4278 and buy with the
stop loss of 4270 on the upper side first target is 4298
then Rs. 4312 - 4330 to
4356.
MERELY SCRATCHED THE
SURFACE OF THE MANY PATTERNS AND VARIABLES THAT
CAN GO INTO CANDLESTICK
ANALYSIS. NO ATTEMPT WAS
MADE TO PROVIDE A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF EACH
AND EVERY PATTERN. IN
FACT, MANY FORMATIONS
WERE LEFT OUT AS THEY
CROSS THE BORDER INTO
MORE COMPLICATED ANALYSIS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE
OVERVIEW OF CANDLESTICK
ANALYSIS, IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT YOU READ
THE BOOK THAT IS REFERRED
TO BELOW.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MATERIAL IN THIS INTRODUCTION IS TAKEN FROM AN
EXCELLENT BOOK CALLED
JAPANESE CANDLESTICK
CHARTING TECHNIQUES: A
CONTEMPORARY GUIDE TO
THE ANCIENT INVESTMENT
TECHNIQUES OF THE FAR
EAST. IN SOME CASES, SENTENCES WERE TAKEN ALMOST VERBATIM, AS THERE
In the coming days Oil, Metal,
Banking, Reality sectors are expected to move further in this rally.
As we have seen that avoiding terrorist blast, inflation data, retail
selling market has risen unexpectedly. Market has risen approx.
4.17% in this week. Hence
market has ended up near
200 DMA i.e. 17500.
If market succeeds to
cross over 17500
twice by closing
level, it may get
room for at least
more 1000 pts from
these levels. Downward side market
has 16500 &
16000 as strong
support.
Weekly chart of the
market seems to be
bullish. Stochastic &
RSI are bullish but
MACD is weak for the daily
chart for the Sensex. On the
Nifty point of view, if closes above 5200 will get space till 5350
& 5400.
NIRAV DESAI - Mo. 09820627454
E-mail : [email protected]
In the coming days Oil, Metal, Banking, Reality sectors are expected to move further in this rally. “R” Group may boost the rally
ahead. So we are bullish on scripwise buying & suggest some of
the strong scrips to buy on decline.
Sr. No Scrip Name
1.
DLF
2.
ICICI Bk
3.
Cent Text
4.
Rcom
5.
Suzlon
6.
IOC
CMP
649
941
816
601
307
411
SL
635
924
800
590
298
400
RL
678
965/1000
848/856
622
320
428/35
CMP
858
178
118
1451
511
SL
841
170
114
1410
500
Trg
885
190
124/128
1500
535
Delivery Base
Sr. No Scrip Name
1.
Adani Ent
2.
Bihar Tube
3.
IB Sec
4
Tata Power
5
Tata Com
WAS NO BETTER WAY TO SAY
WHAT MR. STEVE NISON, THE
AUTHOR, ALREADY SAID. IN
HIS BOOK, MR. NISON, COMPLETELY EXPLAINS CANDLESTICKS AND THEIR FORMATIONS, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY EXPLAINS HOW TO
COMBINE CANDLESTICK
ANALYSIS WITH TRADITIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT YOU CONSIDER PURCHASING THIS
BOOK FROM THE ALTAVEST
ONLINE BOOKSTORE.
AS TRADERS, WE NEED AS
MANY TRADING TOOLS IN
OUR ARSENAL, AND A BASIC
KNOWLEDGE OF CANDLESTICKS PROVIDES A TRADER
MUCH NEEDED AMMUNITION. ALSO REMEMBER THAT
NO MATTER WHAT THE TRADING TOOL, NO MATTER HOW
ADVANCED OR ANCIENT, IT
IS ONLY EFFECTIVE WHEN
PUT INTO PRACTICE PROPERLY. THIS IS, OF COURSE,
YOUR JOB AS THE TRADER.
REGARDS,
ERIK
L.
GEBHARD
ALTAVEST
WORLDWIDE TRADING, INC.
ATTENTION
The material contained in the
Economic Revolution is based on
Fundamental and Technical analysis & other scientific methods and
also the knowledge and belief of
author. Error can not to be rulled
out. The information given is of advisory nature only. The Editor, the
Publisher and the Author does not
take any consequences arising out
of it. All rights reserved. Reproducing to whole or in part of any matter including featurs without
permision is not permitted. Letgal
jurisdiction is Ahmedabad only.
The material given in the Economic Revolution is the views of
author only, it not means that Editor is agree with it, so Editor, the
Publisher and the printer is not
resposible for the contains in writers article.
Devlaxmi Joshi
Editor,
Continue
on ...7
The Economic
Revolution.
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
8
WEEKLY PREDICTION OF STOCK
MARKET FOR 19-05-08 to 23-05-08
During the week Sun will transit from Taurus, Moon from
Libra to Sagittarius, Mars from
Cancer, Mercury from Taurus,
Jupiter from Sagittarius, Venus
from Aries and from 20th May
from Taurus, Saturn from Leo,
Rahu from Capricorn, Ketu
from Cancer, Harshal from
Aquarius, Neptune from Capricorn and Pluto from Sagittarius. Daily effect of above
planetary transit on stock market will be as follow:DATE
DAY
TREND OF MARKET
Astromoneyguru says - Bears
may come back in Stock market
HINDUSTAN, BINANI CEMENT, BPCL, CELESTIAL LAB,
CINEMAX
As per Financial astrology 20th also gone as per expectations . booking is always advisable at
week of year 2008 represents Crude oil levels moved as per every levels. Investors may inMoon. As per Financial astrol- our predictions . Sudden fall and vest with the view of 30 days in
ogy Moon is very famous to rise have been seen in crude oil under mentions stocks .
bring highest volatility in world in commodity future market. Important sector watch - Sugar,
future market . During this week
Auto, software
Sun with Mercury,
Important stock
Jupiter in his own
watch
TCS,
sign, Mars with
Cipla,
Bajaj
Ketu in “ KARAK
Hindusthan,
“ Rashi .All these
ONGC ,matrix
combinations and
lab,
Brigade
conjunctions may
enteterprize etc
show highest volaCommodities
tility in world
Crude Oil: As per
stock
market.
stars crude oil is
Volatility may start from US
stock market followed by Euro- Stock Market- As per Astro-tech- expected to show volatility
pean and Asian stock market. As nical calculations this week is trend this week. Crude oil resisper stars this week world stock expected to open with volatile tance levels US$ 128 to US$130
market may show volatility with but negative movement. in per barrel and support levels
negative movement in US, Eu- world and Indian stock markets USD 124 or 122 per barrel in
rope, Asian stock market at the . Profit booking are expected in world future market. Heavy
beginning . Some bounce back Banking, Power, heavy engi- down ward corrections is exis also expected at lower levels neering, Oil and gas, Telecom- pected in last two days of the
week
on Tuesday.
As per stars
Nifty Level
Last two
Forex- As per
days of the
planets British
Nifty support levels: (1) 5100 (2) 5050 (3) 4933
week bears
Pounds are exNifty Resistance levels (1) 5188 (2) 5233 (3)5277
may show
pected to show
Investors may trade in Nifty according to these levels
again their
weakness against
strength.
US Dollars .
My sincere advise to all inves- munications, Pharma, infrastruc- Profit or Loss for You
tors either hedge your long po- ture ,real state sector. No big In- Red Alert for those investors
sitions or book profit during vestment buying is advised . As who born in March 1978, Sepweek in long positions . Our ad- per Astro-technical Indian and tember 1979 and September
vance predictions about Indian world stock market may see 1981, need to be Alert in big
stock market and commodities some volatility in last two days trading since stars does not supmade previous week at this web of the week due to influence of port them .
site proved correct . Nifty levels planets . Therefore timely profit
INDIA, DR.REDDY, ESAB INDIA, ESSAR OIL, ESSAR SHIPPING,
FORTIS
OBITUARY
19-05-08
20-05-08
Monday
Tuesday
21-05-08
Wednesday
22-05-08
Thursday
23-05-08
Friday
Holiday.
Open with bear trend, rise from 10.08
to 11.59, decline from 11.59 to
12.10, rise from 12.10 to 12.45,
decline from 12.45.Bank, paper,
information technology, publication,
aviation will decline.
Open with bear trend, normal rise
from 13.05. Information technology,
telecommunication, aviation,
electric, electronic, will rise.
Bull day. All sectors will rise, but
glass, rubber, tyre, leather, machinery
will rise better.
Open with bull trend, decline from
12.09. Tea, coffee, tobacco, oil,
Pharma, will decline.
DURING THE WEEK THE FOLLOWING SCRIPWILL RISE
ADVANTA INDIA, AFTEK, AJANTA PHARMA, AMBALAL
SARABHAI,
AMFORGE, ANDREW YULE, ARVIND MILL, ASHOK
LEYLAND, BAJAJ
HEALTH CARE, GARDEN SILK MILL, GLAXO, GTL, GTL INFRA, GUJ
AMBUJA CEMENT, GSPL, HUL, IFCI, IFLEX, INFOSYS, KOTAK
MAHENDRA, NEYVELILIGNITE, POWER GRID, PRAJ INDUSTRIES, REL
ENERGY, SAIL, TATA POWER, TATA TEA, YES BANK.
DURING THE WEEK THE FOLLOWING SCRIP WILL DECLINE:ACTION CONSTRUCTION, AONE ORGENIC, BALAJI TELE,
BALLARPUR
INDUSTRIES, BODAL CHEMICAL, CAIRN INDIA, DHAMPUR
SUGAR,
DIVI’S LAB., ESSAR STEEL, GAIL, GLAXO SMITH PHARMA,
GRASIM,
HINDALCO,IDEA, PUNJLLOYD, RIL, RELIENCE, POWER, SBI,
TCS.
Death is uncertain,
Partition of beloved is always
painful.
May Lord make the deased soul
rest in eternal peace.
LkiLkt rALËÂLík þ†krý, LkiLkt Ënrík Ãkkðf:>
Lk [iLkt õ÷uËÞLíkkÃkku, Lk þku»kÞrík {kÁík: >
SHREE GANESHLAL GAUTAMLAL JOSHI
BIRTH 02-08-1920
DEATH 15-05-2008
Narendra Ganeshlal Joshi, Devlakshmi Joshi, Nandgauri Joshi, Sneha,
Asmi, Rutva & The Economic Revolution Family
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
9
GOOD
LONGTERM
BET
DISH TV
Dishtv is India's first direct to home entertainment service that has digitalized
Indian entertainment to bring to your
home the best in television viewing
through the latest in digital technology.
It not only broadcasts high quality
programmes straight from the satellite
to your home, but also gives you absolute and complete control of what you
watch and pay for. It is almost like having your own satellite up in the sky.
With dishtv you can unleash the true
potential of your high-end television set
and complete your TV viewing experience with true DVD quality. If you are a
connoisseur of good sound then make
sure you experience true stereophonic
sound effects, which only dishtv can
bring to your home.
HINDUSTAN CONS
Incorporated in 1926 by Seth Walchand
Hirachand, Hindustan Construction
Company (HCC) is one of the largest
construction and infrastructure building
company in the country.
HCC specializes in the construction of
technologically complex & Long-gestation period projects.
The Company executes various projects
from diversified areas like Hydel, Power,
Roads, Bridges, Dams, Barrages, Marine
Works, Buildings & Environmental
Projects.
The company had also undertaken several projects in Bhutan, Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, Myanmar, Tanzania, Sri Lanka etc.
The company also specializes in construction techniques like pre-cast units
for industrial structures and jetties, slip
forming for tall structures and underground shafts, bridge builders for segmented construction of long-span
bridges, three-dimensional computer-
VOLTAS LIMITED
Voltas Limited, a part of the TATA conglomerate, was incorporated in 1954. It
is India's premier airconditioning and
engineering service providers. Its operations are organized into four independent business specific clusters viz,
Electro-Mechanical Projects & Services,
Unitary cooling products for comfort &
commercial use, Engineering Agency &
Services and others.
Voltas is also actively engaged in the
procurement and marketing of air conditioners, textile machinery, machine
BSE Code : 532839
Current Price : Rs. 53.30
Equity : 42.82 Crore
Dishtv takes television viewing to the
next level as it supports various futuristic features like Electronic Programme
Guide, Parental Lock, Capacity up to 400
channels, Games, Interactive TV, Movie
on Demand etc.
Dishtv also brings you exclusive National and International channels for the
first time in India! You can enjoy all of
these never-seen -before channels in uninterrupted viewing without any transmission cuts.
Brought to you by a Zee Network Enterprise, dishtv has changed the face of the
Indian television home, bringing it at par
with the global entertainment industry.
BSE Code : 500185
aided design technology for bridges, and
dredgers for speedy sinking of monoliths,
etc.
The Subsidiary Companies of HCC are
Hincon Technoconsult Ltd, Western Securities Ltd, HCC Infotech Ltd, Pune
Paud Toll Road Company Ltd and
Hincon Realty Ltd
The management guidance for FY2008
order book stands at Rs.12000 cr. as it
has submitted tenders for projects worth
Rs.5830 cr. and it is L1 in projects of
roads, tunnels and bridges worth Rs.4000
cr. The company is pre-qualified to bid
for projects worth Rs.7200 cr.
Sales and NP for year ended 05 - 06 were
3082.8 Cr. & 108.8 Cr . Sales and NP for
latest Quarter 1055.0 Cr & 26.4 Cr.
On YOY basis NP has increased by 192
%
Dividend during year ended 05 - 06 was
80 %
BSE Code : 500575
tools, mining and construction equipment and industrial chemicals. Its factories are located at Thane (Maharashtra),
Dadra and Sanathnagar (AndhraPradesh). Its offices cover all metros and
other major Indian cities. Its overseas offices are located in Abu Dhabi (UAE),
Hong Kong and Singapore. It has technical collaborations with international
companies like Hitachi (Japan), Standard
Refrigeration (USA), Dunham Bush
(USA), Hercules (USA), Mitsubishi (Japan) etc. It has six subsidiaries and five
joint ventures.
The company in spite of rise in input cost
has not hike the price of its air - conditioners. Steel, copper and aluminum contribute 70% to the input cost and due to
the rise in cost of these inputs by 4% 5% the sales revenues of the AC manufacturers in India have been affected. The
company is planning to meet this rise in
cost through high volume growth. The
domestic room AC market has been estimated at 2 million during the financial
year ending March 2008.The company
commands 17% of the domestic market
share in room ACs, which it plans to increase to 20% by next year which will
help company in driving its volume
growth.
The company with diversified business
model and wide range of product line
which is directly related to the economic
growth is expected to drive its growth as
economic growth is going ahead on
strong platform and with more and more
urbanization and changing demograph-
BHEL
In India in the energy-related/infrastructure sector, today. BHEL was established
more than 40 years ago, ushering in the
indigenous Heavy Electrical Equipment
industry in India - a dream that has been
more than realized with a well-recognized track record of performance. The
company has been earning profits continuously since 1971-72 and paying
dividends since 1976-77.
BHEL manufactures over 180 products
under 30 major product groups and caters to core sectors of the Indian Economy
viz., Power Generation & Transmission,
Industry, Transportation, Telecommunication, Renewable Energy, etc. The wide
network of BHEL's 14 manufacturing
divisions, four Power Sector regional centres, over 100 project sites, eight service
centres and 18 regional offices, enables
the Company to promptly serve its customers and provide them with suitable
products, systems and services -- efficiently and at competitive prices. The
high level of quality & reliability of its
products is due to the emphasis on design, engineering and manufacturing to
international standards by acquiring and
adapting some of the best technologies
from leading companies in the world,
together with technologies developed in
its own R&D centres.
BHEL has acquired certifications to Quality Management Systems (ISO 9001),
Environmental Management Systems
(ISO 14001) and Occupational Health &
Safety Management Systems (OHSAS
18001) and is also well on its journey
towards Total Quality Management.
BHEL has Installed equipment for over 90,000 MW
of power generation -- for Utilities, Captive and Industrial users.
Supplied over 2,25,000 MVA transformer
capacity and other equipment operating
in Transmission & Distribution network
up to 400 kV (AC & DC).
ics the demand for products like air - conditioners, construction equipments, refrigeration equipment, water coolers,
freezers etc. are witnessing huge growth.
Therefore, company is expected to capitalize its future growth through grabbing
these opportunities.
The company has emerged from being a
consumer appliance company operating
in highly competitive arena to one that
has expertise in the niche engineering
area of electro - mechanical projects and
services. This, we believe has the potential to take the company on to a high
growth trajectory in the future.
2400.6 Cr. & 129.6 Cr. Sales and NP for
latest Quarter 664.8 Cr & 42.4 Cr.
On YOY basis NP has increased by 43 %
& based on latest quarters NP has increased by 127 %
Dividend during year ended 05- 06 was
100 %
BSE Code : 500103
Supplied over 25,000 Motors with Drive
Control System to Power projects, Petrochemicals, Refineries, Steel, Aluminum,
Fertilizer, Cement plants, etc.
Supplied Traction electrics and AC/DC
locos to power over 12,000 kms Railway
network.
Supplied over one million Valves to
Power Plants and other Industries.
BHEL's operations are organised around
three business sectors, namely Power,
Industry - including Transmission, Transportation, Telecommunication & Renewable Energy - and Overseas Business. This
enables BHEL to have a strong customer
orientation, to be sensitive to his needs
and respond quickly to the changes in
the market.
BHEL's vision is to become a world-class
engineering enterprise, committed to
enhancing stakeholder value. The company is striving to give shape to its aspirations and fulfill the expectations of the
country to become a global player.
The greatest strength of BHEL is its
highly skilled and committed 42,600
employees. Every employee is given an
equal opportunity to develop himself and
grow in his career. Continuous training
and retraining, career planning, a positive work culture and participative style
of management ? all these have engendered development of a committed and
motivated workforce setting new benchmarks in terms of productivity, quality
and responsiveness.
17320.7 Cr & 2414.0Cr. Sales and NP
for latest Quarter 4964.1Cr & 771.9Cr.
On YOY basis NP has increased by 44 %
& based on quarter latest its increased by
16%
Dividend during year ended 06 - 07 was
245 %
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
10
HPCL, BPCL & ONGC
MAY GAIN NEXT WEEK
We have boldly told u
last week that if index
break 16570 then it can
touch 16073 and if nifty
future breaks 4954 then
it can touch 4917…. See
what happened in last weekkkk….
Index had breaks 16570 and goes
below 16100….Nifty future had
breaks 4954 and touched to
4923……. Also for upside we have
boldly told u that if it crosses 16947
then it can touch 17259 and if nifty
fut crosses 5037 then it can touch
5157…… Then What happened
Index touched 17497.36 and nifty
future touched 5168.10……. We
hope that all investors those who
are reading and following our
article…may get benefited from this
predictions………..
From our Stock future recommendations, Air Deccan has touched
147,BEL has touched 1284, MRPL
has touched 94, GNFC has moved
like rocket to touch 174, Hind.oil
has touched 148, RNRL touched
112…..
ment recommendations…. Max
india touched 163, Matrix Lab
moved like rocket touch 202, BASF
has touched 252, Godrej touched
310 and Gwalior chem.,Prime
Property,Tulip star, Hatsun
Agro,Sky ind has performed
well….
From Our Delivery based invest-
Look at our previous recommendations… We have boldly told u to
buy Cairn in fut at 255 and it has
touched 304+, RCOM at 530 & at
577 also and it has touched 602, In
delivery , we have told you to buy
ASCL at 36 & today it has hit upContinue on ...4
Weekly Trading’s Hot Scripts for Week (19.05.08 To 23.05.08)
Sr.No.
1
2
3
4
5
Company Name
PNB
Hotel Leela
Nalco
Zee
BOI
Closing Price
559.00
47.45
520.00
237.85
358.30
Stoploss
546
43
503
230
345
Target 1
573
58
532
246
367
Target 2
587
69
546
255
380
Target 3
596
78
557
262
391
BSE Index Prediction for Week (19.05.08 To 23.05.08)
Index
BSE
Closing Price
17434.94
Support
17315
Stoploss
17127
Target 1
17579
Target 2
17675
Nifty Future’s Prediction for Week (19.05.08 To 23.05.08)
Index
Nifty
Closing Price
5148.00
Support
5100
Stoploss
5037
Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
5210
5242
5285
Nifty Future’s Hot Scripts for Week (19.05.08 To 23.05.08)
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
Company
Name
Air Deccan
Hind.Oil Explo
MRPL
RNRL
Jindal steel
Closing
Price
137.75
142.45
91.55
110.65
2400.00
Stoploss
Target 1
Target 2 Target 3
130
135
86
102
2370
154
157
104
119
2458
172
170
116
133
2498
TRADING LEVELS FOR
INDISES AND BSE 30
SCRIPT’S FOR
20 MAY 2008 ONLY
These are the trading
levels for BSC 30
Scrips.These are for
20th
May.Tuesday
only. According to
thisany one can trace
long at support and
short are resistance level
For Delivery Based Investment Hot Midcaps/
Smallcaps for Week (19.05.08 To 23.05.08)
Target 3
17903
181
179
123
142
2532
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Company
Bse
Name
Code
ASCL
532853
Nutraplus
524764
Surya Pharma 532516
Super Spinning 521180
Aftek Infosys 530707
Hindustan Copper
Zensar Tech
504067
Shrayans Reso 511413
Salzer Elect. 517059
Aptech
532475
Harisson
500467
Hyderabad Ind. 509675
KS Oil
526209
Jupitor Bio
524826
Webel SL
517498
Closing
Price
47.00
13.80
112.60
14.15
53.60
513599
149.10
195.70
86.30
247.65
105.10
203.00
76.00
154.65
356.00
Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
60
19
137
24
64
307.00
164
219
109
265
111
217
84
163
388
74
24
154
36
73
337
180
228
130
284
123
229
95
175
414
83
28
166
41
80
358373
197
242
149
307
130
239
102
187
445
CLOSEON
MAY 16TH
SUPPORT-3 SUPPORT-2
SUPPORT-1
CENTRE
RESISTANCE-1 RESISTANCE-2
RESISTANCE-3
Name
NIFTY MAY FUTUR
NSE NIFTY CASH
BSE SENSEX
ACC Ltd.
Ambuja Cements Ltd.
Bharat Heavy Electri Ltd.
Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Cipla Ltd.
DLF Ltd.
Grasim Industries Ltd.
HDFC
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
ICICI Bank Ltd.
Infosys Technologies Ltd.
ITC Ltd.
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.
Larsen & Toubro Limited
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
NTPC Ltd.
ONGC Ltd.
Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
Reliance Commu. Limited
Reliance Energy Ltd.
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Satyam Compu. Serv. Ltd.
State Bank of India
Tata Consul. Serv. Ltd
Tata Motors Ltd.
Tata Steel Ltd.
Wipro Ltd.
5152.30
5157.70
17434.94
680.05
110.90
1795.30
851.30
212.50
649.20
2289.80
2766.90
1502.30
203.70
243.70
941.15
1871.15
226.95
270.10
2996.35
662.20
818.95
191.05
950.90
510.70
601.85
1460.60
2635.20
488.15
1704.00
976.15
669.75
890.90
506.15
5044
5059.2
17154
660.98
107.43
1736.30
818.86
205.48
620.70
2229.00
2664.60
1461.20
190.80
235.10
895.10
1789.60
218.76
261.86
2912.70
648.60
791.26
187.60
924.60
478.93
569.95
1404.60
2563.80
465.43
1664.30
931.33
643.75
859.01
489.93
5112.1
5120.2
17335
674.58
109.83
1777.10
840.86
210.38
639.30
2268.50
27736.60
1490.20
199.05
240.40
925.50
1848.00
223.86
267.26
2970.20
658.30
811.06
190.00
942.40
498.58
590.20
1440.80
2608.80
480.43
1689.30
963.03
660.20
878.96
501.43
5140.1
5143.8
17416
682.71
111.16
1800.00
852.43
213.16
648.00
2286.70
2778.30
1507.10
202.65
242.40
940.25
1883.20
225.88
269.83
3001.60
664.10
822.98
191.35
951.70
506.11
598.80
1457.20
2627.40
487.71
1699.60
981.61
667.10
886.98
508.21
5180.2
5181.2
17516
688.18
112.23
1817.90
862.86
215.28
657.90
2308.00
2808.60
1519.20
207.30
245.70
955.99
1906.40
228.96
272.66
3027.70
668.00
830.86
192.40
960.20
518.23
610.45
1477.00
2653.80
495.43
1714.30
994.73
676.65
898.91
512.93
5248.3
5242.2
17697
701.78
114.63
1858.70
884.86
220.18
676.50
2347.50
2880.60
1548.20
215.55
251.00
986.30
1964.80
234.06
278.06
3085.20
677.70
850.66
194.80
978.00
537.88
630.70
1513.20
2698.80
510.43
1739.30
1026.40
693.10
918.86
524.43
5072
5082.8
17235
669.11
108.76
1759.20
830.43
208.26
629.40
2247.20
2706.30
1478.10
194.40
237.10
909.85
1824.80
220.78
264.43
2944.10
654.40
803.18
188.95
933.90
486.46
578.55
1421.00
2582.40
472.71
1674.60
949.91
650.65
867.03
496.71
5208.2
5204.8
17597
696.31
113.56
1840.80
874.43
218.06
666.60
2326.20
2850.30
1536.10
210.90
247.70
970.65
1941.60
230.98
275.23
3059.10
673.80
842.78
193.75
969.20
525.76
619.05
1493.40
2672.40
502.71
1724.60
1013.30
683.55
906.93
519.71
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
Market Outlook
Indian bourses after the SEBI
had imposed restrictions on
Participatory Notes. It is learnt
that the FIIs have taken route
of Singapore NIFTY and
money are pouring there to
play in Indian Stock Market
and we are deprived of the
Foreign Exchange which hitherto were getting into the
coiffeur of RBI. The outflow
of US $ from India with a
space more rapid than perhaps
Government thought has certainly given an insight to think
again over the ban on PN. If
there is any truth in this news
or remour than even little ease
may drive foreign money in to
Indian bourses again.
The next result season is far
away and there are no fresh
triggers which can otherwise
boost the participants to take
higher risk in Indian Equity
market. The much talked about
Inflation at 44 months high of
7.83% has put the UPA Government in a bit of a fix. The
elections in Karnataka shall
have last votes cast this week
and the Exit Poll indicates that
road shall not be as easy as perhaps Congress thought. If the
outcome is against the Congress then Stock Market shall
certainly witness a knee jerk
reaction but that would be for
better since the elections those
are forth coming in other seven
states shall compel the Centre
to become more pro active towards a common man which
fortunately includes a small
investor in this country. The
debacle of ULIP scheme for
the first two months in LIC has
certainly acted as eye opener
that people have started withdrawing from Indian equity
market and it has no longer remained a sure shot as was
thought since last two or three
years!! The vertical fall of Index on 21st and 22nd January
2008 has done extensive damage to the Indian economy in
terms of revenue to Government by way of STT, delay in
several IPOs and FIIs taking a
reverse flight to countries like
Brazil Russia and Chile where
their comfort level is more
than India. We perhaps had
Conti. from ....1
little over reacted to inflow of
FIIs funds in this country without perhaps realizing that India Stock Market is not the
only destination FIIS are dependent on as they several options available world over.
The rising crude prices has created more alarm and the unacknowledged rift between Ministry of Finance and Ministry
of Petroleum has revealed the
truth that the Government cannot afford more burden on
their treasuries as the economic and industrial slow
down has already surfaced in
last two months. The only hope
against hope is the forecast of
99% monsoon this year and
one does not know whether the
prediction is heal the wounds
of a possible slow down or just
to keep the morale high of
people who are fearing the
worst to come in few months.
As there cannot be a cross
check on monsoon’s prediction
one has to wait and watch the
Rain God’s arrival by end of
this month. If something goes
wrong and the monsoon is
found deficient then in initial
stage then it would surely act
as a dampener to Indian
economy and certainly to Indian Stock Market. Therefore
a cautious approach to the Investment proposal would be a
better bat than blindly follow
the game rules which proved
rewarding so far. The diversification shall be the only answer and those seeking the
Mutual Fund route for Investment must also invest in Real
Estate and Gold ETF to hedge
the possible downfall in stock
market. The statistics show
that money invested in Nifty
futures in January 2008 had a
negative return of 24% while
Gold and Real Estate Funds
have given 14% + post January 2008.
All said and done the forth
coming week shall be next to
normal and volatility may be
on lower side but taking a long
position without corresponding
hedging may prove risky. So
be careful and remain in cash
at least 50% if not more!!
11
WEEKLY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
FROM 19 May TO 23 May 2008
ANURAG GUPTA
MOBILE : 9255191643
SYMBOL
CLOSE
NF APRIL
5152.30
ADLAB FUTURE
680.30
ABB FUTURE
680.30
ACC FUTURE
683.00
BANKBARODA FUTURE297.20
BEL FUTURE
1274.45
BEML FUTURE
1148.20
BHEL FUTURE
1804.20
BOMDYEING FUTURE977.70
BPCL FUTURE
358.95
CANBK FUTURE
235.90
CENTURYTEX FUTURE820.60
CIPLA FUTURE
213.50
DABUR FUTURE
99.70
DIVISLAB FUTURE 1452.90
DRREDDY FUTURE 652.80
GAIL FUTURE
401.50
GRASIM FUTURE 2290.40
HCLTECH FUTURE 297.60
HDFC FUTURE
2765.05
HDFCBANK FUTURE1500.05
HDIL FUTURE
817.55
HEROHONDA FUTURE805.05
HINDUNILVR FUTURE243.55
IDFC FUTURE
169.45
IDBI FUTURE
100.85
IFCI FUTURE
63.05
HINDPETRO FUTURE 248.40
I-FLEX FUTURE
1406.25
ICICIBANK FUTURE 942.35
INDIACEM FUTURE 168.70
INFOSYSTCH FUTURE1852.45
IOC FUTURE
414.00
ITC FUTURE
227.50
IVRCLINFRA FUTURE437.45
LT FUTURE
3006.35
M&M FUTURE
663.25
MARUTI FUTURE
818.40
MTNL FUTURE
104.25
NDTV FUTURE
416.65
ONGC FUTURE
953.35
ORIENTBANK FUTURE211.70
PARSVNATH FUTURE224.00
PRAJIND FUTURE
200.70
PUNJLLOYD FUTURE347.35
PATNI FUTURE
282.55
RANBAXY FUTURE 507.05
REL FUTURE
1457.40
RELCAPITAL FUTURE1388.05
RELIANCE FUTURE 2633.60
RNRL FUTURE
110.90
SATYAMCOMP FUTURE488.60
SOBHA FUTURE
562.10
SBIN FUTURE
1688.80
TATAMOTORS FUTURE669.35
TATAPOWER FUTURE1457.80
TATATEA FUTURE 951.85
TCS FUTURE
979.40
TATASTEEL FUTURE894.60
TITAN FUTURE
1253.60
UNITECH FUTURE 287.85
TATACOM FUTURE 510.60
WIPRO FUTURE
506.35
ZEEL FUTURE
238.20
Email : [email protected]
TREND
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BEARISH
BEARISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BEARISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
BULLISH
RES2
5326.23
726.57
726.57
746.27
311.37
1348.02
1282.67
1892.53
1065.70
401.65
249.30
878.43
223.43
105.00
1592.10
709.60
440.03
2434.13
329.73
2940.28
1569.12
911.58
886.88
259.18
177.82
106.82
68.82
261.43
1545.42
997.28
181.20
2024.28
460.23
237.27
469.08
3210.78
690.52
870.20
108.55
429.08
1085.92
221.37
237.73
222.17
378.98
341.85
541.35
1593.13
1505.28
2741.67
119.80
541.07
590.00
1759.53
691.78
1547.47
1009.82
1066.00
957.73
1444.20
306.72
532.80
531.05
256.80
RES1 TREND LEVEL
5239.27
5081.13
703.43
668.37
703.43
668.37
714.63
687.82
304.28
294.72
1311.23
1263.22
1215.43
1132.72
1848.37
1779.78
1021.70
941.35
380.30
357.65
242.60
233.30
849.52
800.38
218.47
210.88
102.35
100.30
1522.50
1414.30
681.20
650.60
420.77
404.63
2362.27
2286.13
313.67
298.33
2852.67
2736.33
1534.58
1483.07
864.57
777.78
845.97
785.48
251.37
243.18
173.63
167.82
103.83
99.67
65.93
61.22
254.92
243.23
1475.83
1345.42
969.82
917.53
174.95
163.85
1938.37
1809.18
437.12
416.58
232.38
224.22
453.27
426.13
3108.57
2936.78
676.88
663.87
844.30
804.10
106.40
103.15
422.87
415.68
1019.63
978.32
216.53
209.57
230.87
219.43
211.43
198.22
363.17
340.58
312.20
290.25
524.20
492.65
1525.27
1403.13
1446.67
1343.38
2687.63
2589.32
115.35
108.00
514.83
491.67
576.05
563.05
1724.17
1662.08
680.57
666.78
1502.63
1418.07
980.83
933.02
1022.70
957.50
926.17
873.43
1348.90
1199.70
297.28
284.17
521.70
502.60
518.70
504.45
247.50
233.50
SUPP1
4994.17
645.23
645.23
656.18
287.63
1226.43
1065.48
1735.62
897.35
336.30
226.60
771.47
205.92
97.65
1344.70
622.20
385.37
2214.27
282.27
2648.72
1448.53
730.77
744.57
235.37
163.63
96.68
58.33
236.72
1275.83
890.07
157.60
1723.27
393.47
219.33
410.32
2834.57
650.23
778.20
101.00
409.47
912.03
204.73
212.57
187.48
324.77
260.60
475.50
1335.27
1284.77
2535.28
103.55
465.43
549.10
1626.72
655.57
1373.23
904.03
914.20
841.87
1104.40
274.73
491.50
492.10
224.20
SUPP2
4836.03
610.17
610.17
629.37
278.07
1178.42
982.77
1667.03
817.00
313.65
217.30
722.33
198.33
95.60
1236.50
591.60
369.23
2138.13
266.93
2532.38
1397.02
643.98
684.08
227.18
157.82
92.52
53.62
225.03
1145.42
837.78
146.50
1594.08
372.93
211.17
383.18
2662.78
637.22
738.00
97.75
402.28
870.72
197.77
201.13
174.27
302.18
238.65
443.95
1213.13
1181.48
2436.97
96.20
442.27
536.10
1564.63
641.78
1288.67
856.22
849.00
789.13
955.20
261.62
472.40
477.85
210.20
PLEASE UNDERSTAND BEFORE YOU TRADE
TRADING GUIDELINES (or how to trade using this sheet):
1. This model is based on the premise that the TREND LEVEL is the most important price level that
decides the intraday trend. Much like how the door or a window hangs by a hinge and sways in the wind,
the intraday trend also hangs by this TREND LEVEL and swings because of the demand-supply,
volatility and market sentiments prevailing in the market. Hence its importance in intraday trading.
2. Opening Price is considered around close of previous day. Avoid BUYING if Prices open abnormally
High and Avoid SELLING if prices open too low.
3. If the market price is stable above the TREND LEVEL, then GO LONG. and book profit near the
resistant level (res1 and res2)
4. If the market price is stable below the TREND LEVEL, then GO SHORT. and book profit near
the support level (sup1 and sup2)
5. STOP LOSS: Since you are aware of the ‘potential returns’ at the time of initiating an intraday trade
(difference between the entry price and profit targets), you should set up an appropriate STOP LOSS
around 1% above below of the trade price to protect yourself if the market turns and goes against you.
6. ALTERNATE STRATEGY: If you have already initiated a trade with clear-cut profit targets and a
stop loss level, and find during the course of the trading day that the market turns and goes the other way
and crosses the TREND LEVEL, then trade again:
.For
instance, if your first trade was a LONG trade and the market price drops through the TREND LEVEL to
lower price levels, then GO SHORT.
.
And, if your first trade was a SHORT trade, and the market price rises through the TREND LEVEL to
higher price levels, then GO LONG.
18-5-2008 to 24-5-2008
12
INTRODUCTION :
Shri Antaryami is connected
with Stock Market since last
many years and giving right
guidance to many people
among the country and out
side the country also. He has
great experience and knowledge of the Stock Market and
he is counting as a leader analyst in Gujarat. He is connected with Stock Market research and it becomes his profession. Due to personal circumstances, he do not want to
share his introduction, but he
always remain well wisher of
small investors and thinks for
them and always catch the opportunity to guide them. It is
his pleasure to help and guide
small investors.
SENSEX – 17434 as on
16/5/08
Dear Friends,
Sensex has resistance at
17600Level with highly
Volatile Trend; above
which other resistance levels are at 17773 In downside support levels are at
Market likely to go up further in coming week
17300 levels; below 17160
level, other support levels
are at 16821 levels. I am
positive for next week
above 17600 but be with
the trend. Let the market
decide further moves. As
we are saying from many
days Buying is suggested in
falls only... and its still a
better strategy in the given
scenario...Regarding long
term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious
now...!! If sensex crosses
17800, again then the
upper side target is
quite high and it may
touch 18400 before
May 2008!!!
One can go for buy at
those levels also, but in
absence of that its time
to book profits. This is
a pessimistic outlook
but that’s the way we
tend to be, in this mar-
DIAMOND STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Chambal Ferti. : ( 79) : Buy at Rs 76 levels considering minor support of Rs 73 and stoploss
of Rs 70 for an upper target of Rs 92 levels. Below Rs. 70 it can slide upto RS 68 and RS 64
levels.
Hyderabad ind : ( 203 ) : Operator based buying has been there in this stock. It is suggested to
buy at RS 199 with SL of RS 190 for the target of Rs 225; below RS 190 it can fall up to RS
181 levels. If it crosses Rs 228 level than expect non stop rally up to Rs 250
Harrison Met: ( 105 ) : This stock is looking very good to buy at Rs 101 with SL of RS 97
for the target of RS 128 levels below Rs. 96 stock shall witness free fall.
Suraj Diamond : ( 74 ) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 70 for the
target of Rs 85 level. It is very good for long term position also.
Nagarjuna ferti : (49) : Buy at Rs47 with SL of Rs 44 for the target of Rs 58 levels below Rs.
44 it can show further fall.
Laxmi energy : ( 255 ) : Technically accumulation in this stock has been at these levels.
Buy at Rs 258 with SL of RS 248 for the target of RS 276 levels. It is very good for short to
medium term.
Mahendra Life : ( 646 ) : Buy at Rs 640 With SL of RS 632 for the target of RS 668 level. It
is very good for medium to long term investment.
Zuari Ind. : ( 262) : Buy at Rs 255 with SL of Rs 251 for the target of RS 278 levels. It is
very good for medium to long term investment.
Garware Offshore : ( 243 ) : Buy at Rs 240 with SL of RS 235 for the target of RS 259 levels
It is very good for medium to long term investment.
Vijay Shanti ( 82 ) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 78 for the target
of 94 level. It is very good for long term position also.
Volatile Trend, In Downside
support levels are at 5126
Levels; below 5099 level,
other support levels are at
5050 levels. I am positive
for next week above 5195
but be with the trend. Let the
market decide further
moves. As we are saying
from many days Buying is
suggested in falls only...and
its still a better strategy in
the given scenario...!!!
ket.
NIFTY FO – 5157 as on
16.05.2008
NIFTY FO has resistance at
5195 Level ; above which
other resistance levels are at
5228 Level with highly
Regarding long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If
NIFTY crosses 5300 Level,
again then the upper side
target is quite high and it
may touch 5405 Level before May – 2008...!!! Here
is given Some GLODEN
STOCKS for the week
FUTURE-PLATINUM
1
2
3
4
5
R Com: ( 602 ) : Buy at Rs 600 with SL of RS 590 for the
target of RS 625 level below Rs 590 it can show further
downfall.
Hindalco : ( 204) : Buy at Rs 200 With SL of RS 195 for
the target of RS 220 level below Rs 194 it can show
further downfall up to Rs 189.
Bhel : ( 1796) : Buy at Rs 1800 with SL of RS 1770 for
the target of RS 1840-1880 levels below Rs. 1765 it can
show further downfall up to RS 1708
Suzlon Energy.: ( 307) : Buy at Rs 305 with SL of RS
300 for the target of RS 325 levels below Rs. 295 it can
show further downfall up to Rs. 280
Tata Comm : ( 511 ) : Buy at Rs 505 with SL of RS 485
for the target of RS 540 levels below Rs. 480 it can show
further downfall.
SMALL SAVING STARS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Nagarjuna Ferti : ( 49 ) : Buy at 46 with SL of RS 44 for
the target of RS. 58 .
IFCI : ( 63 ) : It is suggested to buy with SL of RS 58 for
the target of RS. 72 below at RS 56 it can slip up to RS 52
level. Crossover above Rs. 74 evel will take the stock to
Rs 80
Suraj Diamonds: ( 74) : Buy at Rs. 72 with SL of RS . 68
for the target of Rs.82 levels below Rs. 66 it can show
further downfall.
Sh. Laxmi Cotsyn : (110) : Buy at Rs 105 with SL of RS.
99 for the target of Rs 130 levels . It is very good for long
term position also.
Mazda Ltd.: ( 70 ) : Buy at Rs .68 with SL of RS 65 for the
target of Rs 85 levels below Rs.65 it can show further fall
Try to exit long position at every rise

Document 6535882

Transcription

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