Mid-Week Watch Colombo Stock Exchange By SMB Securities Research
Transcription
Mid-Week Watch Colombo Stock Exchange By SMB Securities Research
SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 Colombo Stock Exchange Mid-Week Watch By SMB Securities Research % Change Average Weekly figures 7th Oct 1st Oct ASPI as at 7,396.01 7,293.08 1.41 S&P SL20 Index as at 4,150.64 4,065.11 2.10 Daily Turnover (LKR Mn) 2,865.04 2,863.44 0.06 Domestic Purchases (LKR Mn) 1,476.87 2,253.94 -34.48 Domestic Sales (LKR Mn) 2,358.22 1,415.60 66.59 Foreign purchases (LKR Mn) 1,388.17 609.50 127.76 506.82 1,447.84 -64.99 3,144.49 3,083.66 1.97 20.23 19.84 N/A 2.36 2.31 N/A Foreign sales (LKR Mn) Market Cap (LKR Bn) as at Market PER (X) as at Market PBV (X) as at MARKET ANALYSIS The All Share Price Index (ASPI) of the Colombo Stock Exchange recorded encouraging gains during first two days of the week and surpassed 7,400 level. However, investors were hurry on collecting profits and dragged down ASPI below 7,400 by the end of the week. The ASPI gained 102.93 points( 1.41%) to close at 7,396.01 points in comparison to previous week while S&P SL20 Index closed at 4,150.64 points with a 2.10% increase (85.53 points) over last week. Total turnover for the week was LKR 8,595.12 Mn while average daily turnover for the week amounted to LKR 2,865.04 Mn. The three day highest turnover of LKR 4,389.44 Mn was recorded on Friday due to heavy foreign buying witnessed in Dialog Axiata Plc (DIAL). DIAL led the weekly turnover list by recording LKR 1,931.45 Mn for the week. The week witnessed net foreign inflow of LKR 2,644.06 Mn. Foreigners bought LKR 4,164.51Mn worth of shares while foreign selling amounted to LKR 1,520.45Mn. 1 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 Contribution Made by Sectors During the week Sector Banks Finance And Insurance Beverage Food And Tobacco Chemicals And Pharmaceuticals Construction And Engineering Diversified Holdings Footwear And Textiles Health Care Hotels and Travelling Investment Trusts Information Technology Land And Property Manufacturing Motors Oil Palms Plantations Power And Energy Services Stores And Supplies Telecommunications Trading Sector Index As at As at 07th Oct.2014 01st Oct.2014 18,238.61 22,254.96 7,803.05 3,716.01 2,151.66 1,048.81 944.68 3,578.27 21,664.36 84.36 783.27 3,849.88 18,922.34 116,012.17 839.65 170.77 27,389.82 23,306.18 218.59 16,439.50 Turnover % Change 17,565.05 3.83% 0.66% 0.23% 2.66% -0.40% -1.61% 0.17% 0.73% 1.16% -1.30% 1.85% 1.34% 1.57% -0.03% 0.97% 3.75% 2.33% 2.17% 2.42% -1.30% 22,108.94 7,785.51 3,619.63 2,160.23 1,065.94 943.12 3,552.42 21,415.23 85.47 769.05 3,799.15 18,629.33 116,048.72 831.6 164.6 26,765.86 22,810.89 213.43 16,655.84 Total Turnover Contribution % 2,777,411,167 446,309,554 50,665,516 227,750,529 1,704,983,601 14,319,343 118,273,655 124,096,640 176,203,000 7,276,381 57,649,046 661,601,544 44,533,923 1,023,133 67,325,732 135,439,843 2,233,672 6,199,091 1,946,317,874 25,504,707 32.31% 5.19% 0.59% 2.65% 19.84% 0.17% 1.38% 1.44% 2.05% 0.08% 0.67% 7.70% 0.52% 0.01% 0.78% 1.58% 0.03% 0.07% 22.64% 0.30% IN THE WEEK AHEAD Market has now reached to recorded high levels and we expect it will continue the positive momentum for the coming week as well. Investors expect the decline in interest rates as well as the reduction in the electricity bill to enhance the future earning potential of corporate entities and they are searching for investment opportunities in the equity market since other investment options are now generating comparatively low returns. These positive developments will present trading opportunities to investors and therefore, we advise investors to be attentive on taking investment decisions based on improvements in the market place and take advantage of investing in fundamentally sound counters in a medium to long term perspective. XD In The Week Ahead COMPANY NAME DPS (RS.) Union Chemicals Lanka PLC 7.00 FIRST/FINAL/ INTERIM First Interim DATE OF PAYMENT XD FROM 10-10-2014 20-10-2014 XR In The Week Ahead COMPANY NAME PROPOTION XR DATE LAST DATE OF ACEPTANCE & PAYMENT TRADING OF RIGHTS COMMENCES ON Acme Printing & Packaging PLC 01 for 01 15-10-2014 05-11-2014 28-10-2014 2 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 INVESTMENT Focus – key buys LANKA IOC PLC (LIOC.N0000) LKR 48.50 POWER SECTOR Despite vehicle import has declined recently the demand for petroleum products have been increasing with the development in the economic activities of the country. Company’s current strategy is to enhance LIOC’s brand identity and customer access to its product portfolio on an island wide scale while expanding its present outside Sri Lanka. Company also searches the possibility of automating fuel stations in strategic locations. These developments will bring healthy contribution from all revenue streams and will make substantial growth in earnings. DIALOG AXIATA PLC LKR 12.50 TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR Dialog Axiata Plc maintains its market leading position in the Mobile telecommunications sector in Sri Lanka with market presence in Fixed telecommunications and Digital television market. The telecommunication sector would act as a pivotal driver in country’s economic development with the expansions in ICT and Digital service sectors. DIAL’s forward looking investments in these sectors would make dividends in long term. We expect DIAL’s future revenue growth to stem mainly from its core business of mobile operations which includes mobile voice and data operations. ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC (AEL.N0000) LKR 32.70 CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING SECTOR AEL’s project portfolio consists of a strong and healthy mix of large scale infrastructure development projects covering almost the entire range of civil engineering from roads and highways, bridges and flyovers, to airports and ports, water supply and sanitation, telecommunication infrastructure, pilling and buildings. AEL offers investors the best exposure to capitalize on the current infrastructure boom in the country, given both its liquidity and fundamental growth potential. 3 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07,2014 Economic Update EXCHANGE RATES Week ending 03rd October Week ending 26th September - Average rate 130.39 130.31 - Forward 1 month 131.00 130.74 - Forward 3 months 131.51 131.29 STG 210.29 212.63 EURO 164.93 166.06 JAPANESE YEN 1.20 1.20 INR 2.12 2.12 SDR 193.83 194.15 USD EXCHANGE RATE Average Middle Rate of Other World Currencies INTEREST RATES Overnight 07 Days 01 Month 03 Months 06 Months 12 Months 6.23 6.35 6.46 6.64 6.84 7.12 T-Bill Rates (%) N/A N/A N/A - - 5.89 AWPLR (%) N/A 6.32 6.93 N/A 7.82 N/A AWDR (%) N/A N/A 6.83 N/A 7.37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.00 SLIBOR (%) SDFR (%) SLFR (%) 4 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 TOURIST ARRIVALS – SEPTEMBER 2014 Tourist Arrivals by Month Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total up to September Tourist arrivals in September 2014 2013 2014 110,543 113,968 113,208 80,737 74,838 90,279 107,016 123,269 90,339 107,058 109,420 153,918 904,197 146,575 141,878 133,048 112,631 90,046 103,175 133,971 140,319 105,535 % Change 32.6 24.5 17.5 39.5 20.3 14.3 25.2 13.8 16.8 Tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka continued its positive momentum for the year 2014 and in September 2014 it recorded an increase of 16.8% YoY to 105,535 arrivals. In September 2014, South Asian region became the largest tourist generating market for the country, which contributed 27.1% to the total tourist arrivals. A total of 28,561 tourists came 1,107,178 22.4 from this region and it is an increase of 9.7% compared to previous year. Arrivals from India was the main contributor to this growth. As a single country, India became the highest tourists generating market and 19,244 tourists came for the month. Western European region accounted for 26.8% of the total tourist arrivals to the country and demonstrate a growth of 6.5% YoY. East Asian region recorded a growth of 57.8% to 23,516 while contributing 22.3% of total tourist arrival to the country. China was the main contributor to this growth while tourist arrivals from China increasing 129.4% compared to previous year. For the nine month ending September 2014, a total of 94,994 tourists came from China and recorded 141.4% increase from the corresponding period of 2013.China was the third largest contributor for tourist arrival while India and UK achieved first and second places respectively. 5 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 INFLATION – SEPTEMBER 2014 Inflation Decreased in September 2014 Inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) (2006/07=100) decreased to 4.2% in September 2014, on an annual average basis, from 4.5% in the previous month. The year-on-year (YoY) inflation remained unchanged at 3.5% in September 2014, as recorded in the previous month. The CCPI decreased 0.2% in September 2014 over the previous month, with the Index increasing in absolute terms to 181.9 in September from 182.3 in August 2014. The decrease in prices of items in the food and non-alcoholic beverages sub category was the main contributor to the monthly decrease in the CCPI. Within the Non-food category, prices of items in the sub groups of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels; and Transport decreased due to the downward revision of fuel prices from 17 September 2014. The Annual Average Core inflation moderated to 3.7% in September 2014 from 3.9% in August 2014. Meanwhile, annual average core inflation remained unchanged at 3.2%, as recorded in the previous month. 6 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 GDP GROWTH RATES – 2Q2014 Growth Rates of Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin – Second Quarter The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Sri Lanka was LKR 840,653Mn in 2Q2014 and it was LKR 779,974 Mn in 2Q2013 (At constant 2002 prices). 2014-2Q Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry Fishing 2013-2Q 6.5 -1.1 5.9 -0.5 10.5 -5.3 The GDP grew 7.8% in 2Q2014 compared to 6.8% growth in 2Q2013. The three main sectors of the GDP recorded positive growth rates where agriculture, industry and services grew 6.5%, 12.2% and 5.8% respec- Industry 12.2 10.1 9.3 12.6 10.3 5.3 3.2 16.2 construction sub sector recorded the second highest 19.7 17.8 growth rate of 19.7% 5.8 6.6 Wholesale and retail trade 5.9 6.0 Hotels and restaurants Transport and communication Banking, insurance and real-estate etc. 20.5 21.1 7.6 9.5 6.1 6.3 Ownership of dwellings 1.7 2.1 Government services 1.2 3.9 tributor towards the GDP (22.3%)while manufacturing Private services 6.4 7.8 sub sectors (16.9%) fall on second place. Gross Domestic Product 7.8 6.8 Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Services tively. The Hotels & restaurants sub sector recorded the highest growth rate for 2Q2014 which was 20.5%. The The services sector is the highest contributor to the country’s GDP (58%) while industry sector fell on second place. Contribution from agricultural sector has increased to 12.2% from 10.1%in 2Q2013. The wholesale and retail trade sub sector became the highest con- 7 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 EXTERNAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE - AUGUST 2014 IMPORTS (USD Mn) EXPORTS (USD Mn) January 1,654 898 (756) February 1,345 841 (504) March 1,672 1,070 (602) April 1,445 762 (682) May 1,276 882 (393) June 1,439 986 (454) July 1,845 955 (891) August 1,725 991 (733) MONTH TRADE DEFICIT (USD Mn) External Sector Performance - August 2014 In August 2014, earnings from exports recorded a YoY growth of 7.9% to USD 991Mn , while the expenditure on imports recorded a YoY growth of 16.9% to USD 1,725 Mn. The largest contribution to the export earnings in August 2014 was from industrial exports which grew by 11.9% YoY. Textiles and garments and transport equipment are the major categories contributed to growth in industrial exports. Textiles and garments contributed 85.6% for the growth and transport equipment contributed 36.5% to the growth. Agricultural exports recorded 3.1% decline mainly due to contraction in export earnings from tea and spices. However, earnings from coconut products depicted a significant improvement led by the increase in kernel products. Expenditure on imports increased by 16.9% to USD 1,725Mn in August 2014. The increase in import expenditure in August was mainly due to the imports of refined petroleum products for higher level of thermal power generation compared to the corresponding month of 2013. Consumer goods recorded a YoY growth of 23.0% while intermediate goods recorded 21.1% increase and Investment goods recorded 1.1% increase. Among the import categories classified under Intermediate goods that made a relatively high contribution to this growth was fuel. Expenditure on Import of fuel grew by 21.0% YoY in August 2014. With regard to consumer goods the sub category of vehicles was the main contributor to this growth and recorded a 13.5% YoY growth. As the growth of imports weighed on the export earnings, the trade deficit widened to USD 733Mn in August 2014, compared to USD 556Mn in August 2013. During the period from January to August 2014, the BOP is estimated to have recorded a surplus of USD 2,150 Mn compared to the deficit of USD 66 Mn in the corresponding period of 2013. By end August 2014, Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves amounted to USD 9.2 Bn. 8 SMB SECURITIES (PVT) LTD October 07, 2014 Research Subhashi Jayasumana Randula Harinda Ayana Kapuruge Tel: +94 11 4388136 Sales & Marketing Tel: +94 11 4388122 Lalith Sepalage Janak Dadallage Sampath Indika Nuwan Perera Mob: +94 722 421003 Mob: +94 715 329612 Mob: +94 715 329605 Mob: +94 715 329609 Sisira Kannangara Vino Ramasamy Shalini Jayatunga Mob: +94 777544580 Mob: +94 718 733725 Mob : +94714816297 Inoka Lasantha Mob:+94773403571 Marlon Fernando Sooriya Arachchi Mob :+94775473875 Mob :+9477235445 DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this document has been compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable; however we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute of our judgment to this date and are subject to change without notice. Information contained in this document is not and should be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security or other financial instruments, and cannot be relied upon as a representation for any particular transaction. SMB Securities (Pvt) Ltd or its affiliates and / or its directors, officers and employees shall not be in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the content of this document. SMB Securities (Pvt) Ltd No: 102/1, Dr.N.M.Perera Mawatha, Colombo 08, Sri Lanka [email protected] www.smbsecurities.lk Tel: 0114388136 9