GLOBAL INSIGHT W E E K L Y R O

R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T
GLOBAL INSIGHT
W E E K L Y
O C TO B E R 1 0 , 2 0 1 4
A C LO S E R LO O K
Ride Out the Turbulence
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
Financial and commodity markets were upended recently by risks related to Europe and the strong
dollar. While these risks could linger, we would stay the course by maintaining a full allocation to
equities. We would add stocks should weakness persist.
Fingers Pointing at Germany
A fresh batch of negative German economic data and months
of persistently low eurozone inflation have increased recession
and deflation risks for the eurozone region.
Previously, Germany’s economy helped prop up core eurozone
nations. But this go-around, it could tug them lower.
RBC Capital Markets European economists maintain their Q3
Germany GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q/q, but note there is
downside risk to the estimate.
Our Take: What if Germany and/or the eurozone slip back
into recession? We believe it would be another mild one.
Importantly, we doubt it would materially impact North
America and Asia. While it could certainly constrain U.S. and
Chinese GDP growth, as well as U.S. multinationals’ profits, the
U.S. would likely deliver enough growth to help keep the rest of
the world afloat.
ECB and Germany Still at Odds
Equity Markets Have Corrected Across Regions
Percent Decline from Year-to-Date Highs*
U.S. S&P Japan
500
Nikkei
-5.2%
-6.6%
Europe U.K.
H.K.
U.S.
STOXX FTSE All Hang Canada German Russell
600
Share Seng S&P/TSX DAX
2000
-8.0%
-8.3%
-8.8%
-9.1%
-12.4% -12.8%
* North American and European YTD highs are also all-time highs.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/10/14.
M A R K ET P U L S E
The tug of war about European monetary and fiscal policies
has resumed with European Central Bank (ECB) President
Mario Draghi on one side and German officials (Schaeuble and
Weidmann) on the other.
3
U.S. earnings preannouncements so far, so good
3
Oil pipeline plans in Canada hit a snag
4
German industrial production unexpectedly nose-dives
As these factions continue to squabble, investors once again
doubt their leadership. The perception is neither side is doing
enough to arrest the European malaise.
4
Asian currencies hit by underperformance
Click here for authors’ contact information.
For Important Disclosures, see page 6.
Our Take: The situation is not as dire as current sentiment, in
our view, because meaningful ECB stimulus is in the pipeline.
But more monetary and fiscal policies are needed and will likely
take time to implement. And if deflation does indeed become
an acute threat, these factions would be forced to unite.
Fed Angst About the Dollar
The Fed revealed in its September meeting minutes that some
members are concerned the strong dollar could have negative
knock-on effects. It may dampen U.S. exports, constrain
domestic growth, and keep U.S. inflation too low.
Markets interpreted these comments as “dovish.” The strong
dollar might incentivize the Fed to stay loose, possibly beyond
mid-2015. So the thinking goes, if the greenback is too strong,
it could represent de-facto U.S. tightening.
Our Take: Fed rate-hike speculation will likely rise to a fever
pitch in coming months. The best approach for individual
investors is to block out the noise and focus on the likelihood
rates will probably increase in 2015, depending on the data and
other factors, such as the dollar and global economy. Influential
Fed members (Dudley and Fischer) said during the week that
mid-2015 still seems like a reasonable time frame.
Maintain Equity Allocations
None of these risks will be resolved overnight, but we don’t
believe they warrant changing equity allocations in portfolios.
We would maintain a benchmark allocation and would prepare
to use any additional weakness as a buying opportunity.
5-Year Government Bonds Have Rallied; Yields Have Pulled Back
5-year Yields (%)
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
U.K.
U.S.
Canada
Germany
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
Oct-2013
Jan-2014
Apr-2014
Jul-2014
Oct-2014
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/9/14
W H AT ’ S M O V I N G M A R K ET S
Hedge Fund Headwinds
Equity markets traded poorly during the week, especially in
North America on Thursday, which spilled over into Asia and
Europe on Friday.
In addition to the macro reasons cited above, hedge fund misspositioning has been a factor. Fast-money hedge funds have
been clobbered in commodities, especially oil, and in energy,
small-cap, and semiconductor stocks. As they have repositioned
these and other holdings, broader equity markets have slumped.
Don’t underestimate hedge funds’ impact and the transitory
noise they can create. They represent 20%-60% or more of daily
U.S. trading volume. They often rule the U.S. market during
volatile periods when other investors step to the sidelines, and
their actions tend to leak into other markets. Traders indicated
hedge funds dominated equity flows during the week.
Energy stocks declined sharply across regions as WTI crude
oil fell below $85/bbl and Brent fell to $90/bbl—it seemed like
mass hedge-fund-driven liquidation in the sector.
Energy Stocks Under Pressure Since Oil Peaked
25%
June 20: The day
WTI crude oil peaked
at $107.26
Canada S&P/TSX Energy
U.S. S&P 500 Energy
20%
Europe STOXX 600 Oil & Gas
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; YTD data through 10/9/14
RBC Capital Markets is not yet a buyer of energy stocks, as
there could be further crude oil weakness, but it anticipates a
forthcoming opportunity.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
October 10, 2014
2
U N I T E D S T AT E S
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
■
■
■
■
Once Again, European Angst Is Helping to Push the VIX Higher
Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index (VIX)
Volatility is back, but not with a vengeance. The S&P 500
recorded daily losses or gains of 1% or more in five of the
past six trading sessions; the NASDAQ in 10 of 16 sessions,
and the Russell 2000 in 11 of 16. Institutions, particularly
the fast-money variety, have been “chasing” the market
in both directions, which is one reason the daily moves
have been more pronounced. They lack conviction about
where the market is headed near term. The Volatility Index
(VIX), which is perceived as an options-based “fear” gauge,
has risen 106% from its year-to-date low, but remains
substantially below previous highs (see chart).
During this correction, there have been cracks beneath the
surface and pockets of strength. Small caps, energy, and
semiconductors have substantially underperformed recently.
Utilities, real estate investment trusts, and consumer staples
have outperformed and actually gained ground.
Microchip Technology’s fiscal Q2 earnings warning
sent the Semiconductor Index down 6.9% on Friday. The
company stated that “another industry [orders] correction
has begun.” But RBC Capital Markets doesn’t buy it. It
points out management guidance on July 31 was just the
opposite—so take the statement with a grain of salt. Also, it
believes other indicators are better gauges for the industry
(PC, handset, analog orders), none of which are signaling an
end to this semi cycle.
While it may seem like Q3 earnings preannouncements are
on the rise based on press reports, they are actually lower at
this stage of the quarter than they were in previous periods.
The negative-to-positive Q3 preannouncement ratio is
tracking at 3.2 vs. 4.0 in Q2 2014 and 5.3 in Q3 2013.
50
40
■
The fall in WTI and Brent oil benchmarks has set the
tone for the decline in Canadian energy stocks. However,
Canadian oil benchmarks have fared relatively well by
comparison. Differentials for heavy oil are among the
tightest levels experienced in 2014.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Concerns about
European capital
flight, too little
from ECB
35
30
25
More European
woes help push the
VIX up 106% YTD,
but it's nowhere
near previous highs
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/10/14
■
Media reports indicate the National Energy Board has put
the brakes on Enbridge’s Line 9 pipeline reversal due to a
failure to meet prescribed safety conditions. The pipeline
had been expected to begin flowing crude this fall.
■
Government of Canada bond yields decreased 6–10 basis
points in the 2- to 30-year component of the curve as
mounting concerns over the global economy’s health led
investors into safer assets. The Canadian dollar traded in a
narrow $0.01 range.
■
Low-dividend perpetual preferred shares have
underperformed the broader preferred share market
recently. This is somewhat puzzling as perpetual preferred
shares with lower dividends have historically performed
well in a falling rate environment. The relative strength of
these issues in H1 2014 partly explains the current price
action with unattractive valuations now capping potential
upside. Tax-loss selling may also weigh on these securities
as most are priced at a CA$2–$3 discount. A buying
opportunity may soon present itself should rates remain
unchanged.
Patrick McAllister & Eric Lafortune – Toronto
The S&P/TSX Composite continued to underperform,
with its commodity-centric composition, and is down over
8% since its September high. While energy and materials
continue to be a major source of weakness, industrials have
also suffered a material correction as global growth and
resource development expectations get reassessed.
European banking
system stress
45
CANADA
■
European
headwinds
EUROPE
Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London
■
Equity markets fell during the week following a stream of
negative macroeconomic data in the eurozone suggesting
a deterioration of the pace of the economic recovery.
Further uncertainties regarding the future scenario for
fiscal consolidation in key European countries and the
October 10, 2014
3
slow implementation of political reforms compounded the
negative sentiment towards European stocks. The STOXX
Europe 600 declined 4.0% during the week, mainly driven
by losses in the energy, cyclicals, and financial sectors.
■
■
German Economic Indicators Have Deteriorated
(% change m/m)
Industrial Production
The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook,
revising down its economic growth projections for the
eurozone in 2014–15 to 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively. At a
country level, Germany, France, and Italy all saw notable
downward revisions to growth. Spain, by contrast, was
among the few benefitting from a more positive assessment.
The report also highlighted the risks from booming
mortgage markets in countries including the U.K., Sweden,
and Switzerland, which pose a threat to financial stability,
and called for tighter macroprudential measures.
German industrial production plunged 4.0% m/m in
August, much worse than the market’s expectation of -1.5%,
representing its largest drop since February 2009. This may
overstate the weakness of the German economy given the
timing of the summer school holidays this year, but some
deterioration of economic activity for the quarter has to be
genuinely factored in. Manufacturing orders also fell 5.7%
during the month, and the negative news was compounded
as exports contracted 5.8% in August, versus the market’s
expectation of -4%.
A S I A PA C I F I C
■
The recent unusually large rally in the U.S. dollar has
coincided with, and arguably contributed to, a weaker
period for Asian equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
declined by over 6% in recent weeks. However, such moves
have been commonplace the past five years. An exception
has been the Shanghai Composite, which rose to a new
high for 2014 during the week, and is up 11% year to date.
Currency underperformance has been notable in Asia. The
Australian dollar had declined by as much as 7.5% since
the start of September, to 0.867, its lowest level since 2010,
before recovering moderately during the week. However,
Governor Glenn Stevens continues to talk the currency
down as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the 2.5%
benchmark rate unchanged, saying, “[the exchange rate]
remains high by historical standards, particularly given the
further declines in key commodity prices in recent months.”
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Exports
4.9% 4.8%
0.9%
0.4%
1.6%
-2.5%
-4.0%
-5.7% -5.8%
June 2014
July 2014
Aug 2014
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg
■
RBC Capital Markets anticipates a turn in the Australian
rate cycle before year end 2015, “which should offer AUD
some modest support over a 12-month horizon, albeit
against a backdrop of general USD strength.” Through
2015, it forecasts further modest depreciation against the
U.S. dollar, modest appreciation against the euro, and a
relatively flat outlook against the Canadian dollar.
■
Although the number of people protesting for universal
suffrage in Hong Kong has declined considerably, the
stand-off between the government and protestors, who
are mostly students, continues. Planned talks were shelved
by the government as student leaders threatened to push
for a renewed protest effort. Parts of several major roads on
Hong Kong Island remain barricaded off.
■
China announced a plan, the Qualified Domestic Retail
Investor scheme, to enable individuals to purchase
equities and real estate outside the country. Details, such
as the size and start date, are unknown. We believe the plan
would align with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
programme, announced earlier this year. Separately,
Agricultural Bank of China, one of the largest banks,
announced a plan to become the first company to offer
yuan-denominated Global Depository Receipts in London.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
■
Factory Orders
October 10, 2014
4
M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D
Data as of October 10, 2014
Equities (local currency)
S&P 500
Level
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Govt Bonds (bps chg)
Yield
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
1,906.13
-3.1%
-3.4%
3.1%
12.6%
U.S. 2-Yr Tsy
0.426%
-13.2
-14.1
4.6
8.4
16,544.10
-2.7%
-2.9%
-0.2%
9.4%
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy
2.289%
-14.5
-20.0
-73.9
-39.2
NASDAQ
4,276.24
-4.5%
-4.8%
2.4%
13.7%
Canada 2-Yr
1.052%
-7.8
-7.2
-8.5
-15.8
Russell 2000
1,053.32
-4.7%
-4.4%
-9.5%
-1.5%
Canada 10-Yr
2.013%
-8.1
-13.3
-74.5
-58.0
S&P/TSX Comp
14,227.36
-3.8%
-4.9%
4.4%
10.3%
U.K. 2-Yr
0.702%
-10.0
-12.4
13.8
27.4
FTSE All Share
3,380.02
-3.0%
-4.4%
-6.4%
-1.5%
U.K. 10-Yr
2.217%
-17.2
-20.8
-80.5
-53.2
Dow Industrials (DJIA)
STOXX Europe 600
321.62
-4.0%
-6.3%
-2.0%
3.7%
Germany 2-Yr
-0.055%
1.2
2.7
-26.8
-23.7
8,788.81
-4.4%
-7.2%
-8.0%
1.2%
Germany 10-Yr
0.887%
-3.8
-6.0
-104.2
-98.2
23,088.54
0.1%
0.7%
-0.9%
0.6%
2,374.54
0.5%
0.5%
12.2%
8.4%
Nikkei 225
15,300.55
-2.6%
-5.4%
-6.1%
7.8%
India Sensex
26,297.38
-1.0%
-1.3%
24.2%
29.7%
3,223.87
-0.9%
-1.6%
1.8%
1.7%
Brazil Ibovespa
55,311.59
1.4%
2.2%
7.4%
4.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC
43,435.73
-2.8%
-3.4%
-15.7%
7.3%
Commodities (USD)
Price
German DAX
Hang Seng
Shanghai Comp
Singapore Straits Times
Gold (spot $/oz)
Silver (spot $/oz)
Copper ($/ton)
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Currencies
Rate
U.S. Dollar Index
85.86
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
-1.0%
-0.1%
7.3%
6.8%
CAD/USD
0.89
0.3%
-0.1%
-5.3%
-7.3%
USD/CAD
1.12
-0.3%
0.1%
5.5%
7.8%
EUR/USD
1.26
0.8%
-0.1%
-8.2%
-6.7%
GBP/USD
1.61
0.6%
-0.9%
-2.9%
0.6%
AUD/USD
0.87
0.1%
-0.7%
-2.6%
-8.1%
USD/CHF
0.96
-1.0%
0.3%
7.3%
5.1%
1,223.09
2.7%
1.2%
1.4%
-5.0%
USD/JPY
107.68
-1.9%
-1.8%
2.3%
9.7%
17.39
3.2%
2.4%
-10.7%
-19.8%
EUR/JPY
135.89
-1.1%
-1.9%
-6.1%
2.4%
6,777.00
1.4%
0.8%
-8.1%
-4.9%
EUR/GBP
0.79
0.2%
0.8%
-5.4%
-7.2%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl)
85.82
-4.4%
-5.9%
-12.8%
-16.7%
EUR/CHF
1.21
-0.2%
0.2%
-1.5%
-1.9%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl)
89.89
-2.6%
-5.0%
-18.9%
-19.6%
USD/SGD
1.28
-0.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.2%
3.87
-4.3%
-6.2%
-8.6%
3.8%
USD/CNY
6.13
-0.1%
-0.1%
1.3%
0.2%
306.11
3.6%
4.7%
-12.9%
-18.2%
USD/BRL
2.43
-1.2%
-0.8%
2.8%
11.4%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
Agriculture Index
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close.
Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each
pairing. Data as of 9:35 pm GMT 10/10/14.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.89 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.89 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -7.3% return means the Canadian dollar fell 7.3% vs. the U.S.
dollar year to date. USD/JPY 107.68 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 107.68 yen. USD/JPY 9.7% return means the U.S. dollar rose 9.7% vs. the yen year to date.
U P CO M I N G EV E N TS
53 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings during the week
SUN, OCT 12
TUE, OCT 14, cont.
WED, OCT 15
THU, OCT 16
China Trade Balance ($41.05B)
Eurozone ZEW Survey
Japan Industrial Production
Eurozone CPI (0.4% m/m, 0.3% y/y)
China Exports (12% y/y)
Germany ZEW Current (16.0)
Germany CPI (0.0% m/m, 0.8% y/y)
Eurozone CPI Core (0.8% y/y)
MON, OCT 13
Germany ZEW Expect. (0.0)
U.K. Employment Change (30K)
U.S. Industrial Production (0.4% m/m)
China Foreign Direct Invs. (-14% y/y)
Italy, Spain, France CPIs
U.K. Unemployment (6.1%)
FRI, OCT 17
Eurogroup ECOFIN Council
U.K. CPI (0.2% m/m, 1.4% y/y)
U.S. Retail Sales (-0.1% m/m)
Eurozone GDP revisions
TUE, OCT 14
U.K. CPI Core (1.8% y/y)
U.S. Retail Sales Control (0.3% m/m)
U.S. Housing Starts (1M, 4.6% m/m)
Eurozone Ind. Prod. (-1.7% m/m)
U.K. RPI (0.3% m/m, 2.3% y/y)
U.S. Fed Beige Book
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available
October 10, 2014
5
AUTHORS
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
[email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC
ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U)
most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings
are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as
described below).
Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Eric Lafortune – Toronto, Canada
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Jay Roberts –Hong Kong, China
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the
responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management is comprised of RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC Dominion
Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report
has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Eric Lafortune, Patrick McAllister,
and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC
Dominion Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of
RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment
Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with
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lists include a former list called the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), the Guided
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means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms
to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell -
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Rating
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
As of September 30, 2014
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform]
Hold [Sector Perform]
Sell [Underperform]
858
683
98
52.35
41.67
5.98
308
151
8
35.90
22.11
8.16
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides
research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents
solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of
Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the
same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide
significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over
12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over
12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over
12 months.
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above
Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of
financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance
sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of
financial and/or stock price volatility.
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When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report,
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The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received
compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of
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generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC
Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates.
Other Disclosures
Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth
Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content
and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material
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October 10, 2014
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Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2014 - Member CIPF
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Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2014
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October 10, 2014
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