Spotlight Sydney Industrial October 2014 Highlights

Savills Research
New South Wales
Spotlight
Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Highlights
 Approximately 794,400 square metres of industrial


accommodation was reported leased in Sydney in
the 12 months to September 2014
Approximately $1.85 billion of industrial property
transactions were recorded in the 12 months to
September 2014
Indicative yields for prime and secondary industrial
stock have broadly tightened in the 12 months to
September 2014
 Industrial land values grew over the last 12 months,


with signs of further growth in Western Sydney
Prime rents in the Sydney industrial market remained
stable over the last 12 months
Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts acquired
over $211 million of development sites in the Western
Sydney precinct
Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Savills New South Wales Team
Research
Managing Director
Divisional Director
Simon Hemphill
+61 (0) 2 8215 8892
Managing Director
Simon Fenn
+61 (0) 2 8215 8830
[email protected]
[email protected]
Research
Industrial Sales & Leasing
Analyst
Houssam Yakzan
+61 (0) 2 8215 8980
Divisional Director
Darren Curry
+61 (0) 2 9761 1304
[email protected]
[email protected]
Industrial Sales & Leasing
Divisional Director
Greg Cohen
+61 (0) 2 8215 8864
Divisional Director
Peter Steinhour
+61 (0) 2 9761 1310
[email protected]
[email protected]
Divisional Director
Ray Trimboli
+61 (0) 2 9601 3100
Senior Executive
Adam Micola
+61 (0) 2 9761 1313
[email protected]
[email protected]
Valuation & Consultancy
Executive
Moshe Greengarten
+61 (0) 2 9761 1302
Divisional Director
Russell Nicolson
+61 (0) 2 8215 8987
[email protected]
[email protected]
Corporate Real Estate
Project Management
Divisional Director
John Mackenzie
+61 (0) 2 8215 8982
General Manager
David Nicholas
+61 (0) 2 8913 4813
[email protected]
[email protected]
Savills New South Wales
Level 7, 50 Bridge Street
Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia
+61 (0) 2 8215 8888
savills.com.au
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2
Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Introduction
Sydney is Australia’s second largest industrial property market behind Melbourne in terms
of the amount of zoned industrial land. Industrial users range from domestic service
industries such as the local mechanic to larger scale users like transport, logistics and
manufacturers. Savills Research refers to the Sydney industrial market across seven main
precincts. These precincts and their respective municipalities are as follows:
Precinct
Suburbs
South Sydney
Botany, Mascot, Alexandria, Rosebery, Matraville
South West Sydney
Moorebank, Prestons, Chipping Norton, Liverpool, Revesby, Kingsgrove
Outer South West Sydney
Ingleburn, Minto, Smeaton Grange, Campbelltown
Central West Sydney
Chullora, Homebush, Rydalmere, Silverwater, Granville, Auburn
Western Sydney
Eastern Creek, Erskine Park, Arndell Park, Wetherill Park, Smithfield, Yennora,
Girraween
North West Sydney
Seven Hills, Kings Park, Blacktown, Baulkham Hills
North Shore
Artarmon, Lane Cove, St Leonards
Source: Savills Research
Infrastructure
In recent years significant ongoing improvements have been made to Sydney’s
metropolitan transport infrastructure, including the M2 and M5 motorways which are
currently being widened to accommodate increasing traffic volumes during peak periods.
Sydney is linked by what is known as the Sydney Orbital Network, which connects the M1,
M2, M4, M5 and the M7. This has allowed direct access from Sydney’s port and airport to
all major warehousing and industrial hubs in the South West, Western and North West
precincts.
Sydney’s next key infrastructure project announced by the NSW Government will be
Australia’s largest integrated transport and urban development known as WestConnex. The
33 kilometre project will bring together a number of Sydney’s freeways which together will
form a vital link to the Orbital Network. The scope of works include the widening of the M4
east of Parramatta, a duplication of the M5 East and new sections of motorway to provide a
connection between the two key corridors
Transport for New South Wales is responsible for delivering transport infrastructure projects
that meet time, cost and quality objectives, constantly conducts feasibility studies into
seeking ways to improve the NSW rail networks. Transport for New South Wales cite the
need for a number of infrastructure projects including the Northern Sydney Rail Freight
Corridor, which will improve freight times from Sydney to Newcastle, north of Sydney.
In order to support the growing demand for imports and exports, NSW Ports recently
completed the expansion of the Intermodal Logistics Centre (ILC) at Enfield. The new
terminal is located 18 kilometres west of Port Botany and is due to start operations in late
2014. When fully operational, Enfield will have capacity to handle 300,000 TEU port – rail
capacity per year.
Furthermore, Government studies into the potential development of an additional
intermodal freight terminal at Moorebank in South Western Sydney would significantly
increase freight movements onto the rail network. If developed, this will further help improve
container movement within metropolitan Sydney and help reach Government targets of
doubling container movement by rail to and from Port Botany to 40 percent. Development
of the site is likely to begin over the next year.
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Leasing Activity
Savills identified approximately 794,433
square metres of industrial leases (>500
square metres) in Sydney in the 12 months to
September 2014. This is down on the record
amount 12 months prior of 1,242,094 square
metres and down on the five year average
(931,820 square metres). The number of
leases identified in the 12 months to
September 2014 totalled 130.
By comparison, a total of 187 transactions
were recorded over the same period last year
During the last 12 months, just over 275,875
square metres of space was precommitted.
This is slightly less than the 301,800 square
metres recorded in the previous year. The
total number of precommitment leases in the
12 months to September 2014 totalled 17,
down on the same period last year (14).
The following tables detail the major leases reported throughout the past 12 months.
Select Sydney Industrial Leases to September 2014
GLA (sq m)
Rent
$/sq m
Tenant
1 Secombe Pl, Moorebank
5,332
120 N
Invenco Pty Ltd
Feb-14
62 Marigold St, Revesby
4,613
88 N
Australian Ports Logistics (NSW)
Feb-14
6 Wonderland Dr, Erskine Park
3,434
122 N
BAM Wine Logistics
Mar-14
3-29 Birnie Ave, Lidcombe
8,670
135 N
Booktopia
Mar-14
Unit C, 5-7 Murtha St, Arndell Park
7,278
110 N
Ingram Micro
Mar-14
Yennora Distribution Centre, Yennora
6,209
75 N
Doble Transport
Mar-14
Unit D, 5-7 Murtha St, Arndell Park
6,017
100 N
Agility Logistic
Apr-14
Shirley St, Rosehill
11,962
117 N
The Winning Group
Jun-14
5-7 Unwin St, Rosehill
19,338
115 N
Couriers Please
Aug-14
37 Bessemer St, Blacktown
10,052
85 N
Amber Tiles
Date
Property
Feb-14
Source: Savills Research
Select Sydney Industrial Precommitments Leases to September 2014
GLA (sq m)
Rent
$/sq m
Hepher St, Campbelltown
17,500
90 N
Grace Records
Apr-14
38-46 Bernera Rd, Prestons
13,917
258 N
Ingham
Apr-14
1-2 Turnbull Cl, Greystanes
8,000
137 N
Supply Network
Jun-14
Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek
41,200
98 N
TT Industries (Ryobi)
Jun-14
Lockwood Rd, Erskine Park
15,300
105 N
Pelikan Artline
Jun-14
Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek
13,400
100 N
Fisher & Paykel
Jun-14
52 Quarry Rd, Erskine Park
3,500
120 N
DUT Transport
Jul-14
Pembroke Rd, Minto
7,465
110 N
Quantium Solutions
Date
Property
Jan-14
Tenant
Source: Savills Research na= not currently available
Select Sydney ‘Build to Lease’ Industrial Leases to September 2014
GLA (sq m)
Rent
$/sq m
Tenant
Quarry Estate, Greystanes
15,516
115 N
Consortium Group
Feb-14
William Dean St, Huntingwood
8,140
118 N
Beaumont Tiles
May-14
Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek
16,845
115 N
FDM Logistics
Date
Property
Feb-14
Source: Savills Research
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
After a spike in leasing activity
in the 12 months to September
2013, the Sydney industrial
market experienced an
increase in speculative
development. Developers are
building surplus space
following a large
precommitment to a site. In the
last 12 months, Savills has
recorded over 50,000 square
metres of leasing activity in
‘build to lease’ developments.
The Transport & Logistics
industry leased the most
industrial accommodation,
taking 389,410 square metres
or 49 percent of leased stock.
The ‘Wholesale’ sector
(including supermarkets, bulky
goods, agricultural, textile,
pharmaceutical, liquor, and
furniture traders) accounted for
284,800 square metres or 36
percent of leased stock.
Looking at the current levels of
precommitment and enquiry in
the market, Savills expects the
‘Transport and Logistics’
sector to dominate leasing
activity in Sydney over the
short to medium-term
The remainder of the take up in
the last 12 months was made
up by the ‘Manufacturing’ and
‘IT and Telecommunications’
sectors.
October 2014
Sydney Industrial
Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m)
Sep-04 to Sep-14
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
< 2,000
2,000 - 5,000
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 15,000
> 15,000
Source: Savills Research
Sydney Industrial
Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m and number)
12 months to Sep-14
60
450,000
400,000
50
350,000
40
300,000
250,000
30
200,000
150,000
20
100,000
10
50,000
0
0
< 2,000
2,000 - 5,000
sq m (LHS)
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 15,000
> 15,000
No (RHS)
Source: Savills Research
Leases in the Western precinct accounted for the majority of industrial stock reported leased in the 12
months to September 2014, with 471,462 square metres (including precommitments) or 59 percent. The
Western precinct also recorded the majority of Sydney’s precommitment activity (237,300 square metres) for
the past 12 months.
The Western precinct has experienced a flurry of development in the last 12 months, which has been
predominantly driven by precommitment activity. This is expected to continue with approximately 300,000
square metres of industrial space in the pipeline due to complete by the end of 2015 on sites owned by
Goodman Group, Australand, DEXUS, GPT, Fitzpatrick Investments and Fife Capital.
Industrial take up of warehouse space greater than 15,000 square metres represented the majority of
industrial leases in the last five years, while leases in this region represented 51 percent of Sydney's reported
leasing activity in the 12 months to September 2014.
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Sydney Industrial
Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m)
Sep-04 to Sep-14
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
South
South West
Central West
Western
North West
North Shore
Source: Savills Research
Average net face rents remained
stable across all precincts over the
September 2014 quarter.
Prime industrial net rents as at
September 2014 in South Sydney
range between $130 per square
metre to $190 per square metre,
secondary buildings ranged $90 per
square metre to $115 per square
metre.
Prime industrial net rents in Western
Sydney ranged between $100 per
square metre and $120 per square
metre and between $70 per square
metre and $95 per square metre for
secondary buildings.
Rental levels above this range are
being achieved for facilities
equipped with specialised fit outs,
with tenants paying a premium for
technically advanced facilities that
provide improved warehousing
efficiency.
According to the latest figures
released by NSW Ports, YTD August
for FY2014/15 total container trade
reached 386,441 TEU, up by 3.4
percent when compared to the
same period last year.
Full import containers were up 6.4
percent against the same period last
year with increases in
‘Miscellaneous Manufactured
Articles’, which includes furniture,
clothing and general consumables,
‘Machinery and Transport
Equipment’ and ‘Paper and Paper
Products’.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the
increase in container movement is a
likely driver of speculative
development and helping support
current rental levels across Sydney.
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Sales Activity
Savills recorded approximately $1.85
billion worth of industrial transactions
in the 12 months to September 2014,
up from $1.06 billion in the previous
year; and up on the five year average
($1.25 billion). In the 12 months to
September 2014. Savills recorded a
total of 64 properties sold, up from the
previous 12 months total of 45.
The Sydney industrial investment
market remains extremely strong as
weight of funds from local REITs,
coupled with overseas third party
capital seeking to grow their portfolios,
and has created a seller’s market.
Exacerbated by the lack of investment
grade stock available for purchase,
prime and secondary yields have
tightened throughout of 2014.
Sydney Industrial
Metropolitan Industrial Sales by Price Range ($m)
(>$5m) Sep-04 to Sep-14
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
$5-$10m
$10-$15m
$15-$20m
$20-$30m
>$30m
Source: Savills Research
In the 12 months to September 2014, $738 million of reported transactions occurred in the
South precinct, accounting for 42 percent of the industrial sales in this period. The Western
precinct had the greatest number of transactions (17) worth $420 million or 24 percent of
total recorded sales.
Sydney Industrial Land Values ($/sq m) September 2014
Precinct
3,000 - 5,000 sq m
10,000 - 20,000 sq m
10ha +
South Sydney
500-700
450-600
na
South West Sydney
275-325
225-275
180-200
Outer South West Sydney
200-250
125-170
80-100
Central West Sydney
500-600
350-450
300-350
Western Sydney
275-350
225-350
200-250
North West Sydney
250-325
225-300
na
North Shore
600-700
400-600
na
Source: Savills Research
-note: the above rates reflect benched and serviced land values.
Select Sydney Industrial Land Sales to September 2014
Date
Property
Price ($m)
Area (sq m)
Price ($/sq m)
Dec-13
60 Wallgrove Rd, Eastern Creek
55.05
218,600
252
Dec-13
6 Hepher Rd, Campbelltown
6.50
78,000
83
Jun-14
43-49 Stennett Rd, Ingleburn^
72.50
280,000
259
Jun-14
QuarryWest, Greystanes
50.50
265,000
191
Jun-14
2-28 McPherson St, Banksmeadow
33.10
93,000
365
Source: Savills Research ^site includes small improvements and land lease
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
The following table highlights a selection of industrial sales in the 12 months to September
2014.
Select Sydney Industrial Investment Sales to September 2014
Date
Property
Price($m)
GLA (sq m)
Price ($/sq m)
Yield (%)
Oct-13
10-38 Forrester Rd, St Marys
21.16
18,363
1,152
7.80
Nov-13
52-88 Lisbon St, Fairfield East
65.00
58,828
1,105
9.00
Nov-13
29 Glendenning Rd, Glendenning
29.50
21,874
1,349
7.90
Dec-13
40-88 Forrester Rd, St Marys
72.85
60,439
1,205
7.75
Feb-14
28 Percival Rd, Smithfield
19.20
26,450
726
9.60
Mar-14
1 Inglis Rd, Ingleburn
13.80
9,928
1,390
11.59^
Jun-14
1 Johnson Rd, Campbelltown
19.40
16,642
1,166
7.80
Jun-14
30-32 Bessemer Rd, Blacktown
16.62
14,652
1,134
8.59
Jun-14
104 Vanessa St, Kingsgrove
12.62
7,121
1,772
8.90
Aug-14
50 Airds Rd, Minto
21.60
23,063
937
9.17
Source: Savills Research ^excluding surplus land
Select Sydney Industrial Vacant Possession Sales to September 2014
Date
Property
Price ($m)
GLA (sq m)
Price ($/sq m)
Oct-13
25 Bessemer St, Blacktown
6.00
12,900
465
Feb-14
133 Vanessa St, Kingsgrove
14.85
13,034
1,139
Apr-14
42 Birnie Ave, Lidcombe
12.20
8,070
1,512
Apr-14
24-32 Forge St, Blacktown
6.69
6,713
996
Sep-14
35 Bryant St, Padstow
14.00
36,850
380
Sep-14
67-77 Airds Rd, Minto
5.60
5,799
966
Source: Savills Research
The most active purchaser in
the market in the 12 months to
September 2014 was the
'Trust' category recording $785
million (42 percent) worth of
industrial property transactions.
However, the 'Fund' category
was the most active in terms of
number of transactions
recorded (17).
The 'Developer' buyer category
has become more prevalent in
the last 12 months making up
19 percent of total investment
($359 million). With residential
developers acquiring over $330
million of industrial facilities
earmarked for residential
redevelopment.
Sydney Industrial
Metropolitan
Government Industrial Sales Buyer Profile (%)
0% (>$5m) 12 months to Sep-14
Private Investor
9%
Undisclosed
0%
Developer
19%
Foreign Investor
8%
Fund
14%
Syndicate
1%
Owner Occupier
6%
Trust
43%
Source: Savills Research
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
A-REITs continued to acquire prime industrial assets across Sydney, with Goodman,
Mirvac, Charter Hall, DEXUS, GPT, Australian Industrial REIT and 360 Capital all buying
logistic type assets over the last 12 months. Savills expects this buyer pool for industrial
property to remain acquisitive throughout 2015, further fuelling the argument of a seller’s
market as assets available for purchase remain scarce.
In the last 12 months industrial land has become highly sought after, with A-REITs shifting
their attention from acquiring existing stock to acquiring land banks. This has been spurred
on from the lack of investment opportunities available in the market. These land banks allow
A-REITs to grow their funds management business organically by developing new stock
through market demand. Savills has recorded over $297 million of land sales during this
period, totalling approximately 117 hectares of gross site area. Stockland, Charter Hall,
Australand, DEXUS, Mirvac and Goodman Group all acquired large land bank sites in the
last 12 months.
In June 2014, Stockland announced the acquisition of the 28 hectare Patrick Autocare
industrial site in Ingleburn for $72.5 million. The site is located in Sydney’s Outer South West
in close proximity to the M5 Motorway. With parts of the site leased back to the vendor for
3-10 years, this acquisition provides Stockland with a steady income whilst more
importantly securing them a long term development pipeline.
There are at least two significant sites (serviced and benched) expected to transact in the
next six months, Savills anticipates high levels of interest from all the major industrial REITs
for these properties.
Sydney Industrial
Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m)
Sep-04 to Sep-14
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
South
South West
Central West
Western
North West
North Shore
Source: Savills Research
Average prime yields for industrial stock tightened by 50 basis points in the 12 months to
September 2014 across most precincts. Prime industrial yields in the September 2014
quarter typically ranged between 7.25% and 7.75%. Recent sales transactions at sub
8.00% are likely to place further pressure on yields over the next 12 months.
Savills also recorded a tightening of average secondary industrial yields by 25 basis points
for all precincts in the September 2014 quarter. Savills anticipates pressure on secondary
yields over the next 12 months as lack of prime investment stock available for purchase has
forced investors to turn their sights to well leased secondary assets.
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Sydney Industrial
Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m)
Sep-04 to Sep-14
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
South
South West
Central West
Western
North West
North Shore
Source: Savills Research
Prime industrial capital values in September 2014 range between $1,625 per square metre
and $2,533 per square metre net in South Sydney, between $1,290 per square metre and
$1,600 per square metre net in the South West precinct and between $1,250 per square
metre and $1,600 per square metre net in the Western precinct. When compared to the 12
months prior, average prime capital values in Sydney remained stable.
Key Market Indicators
Key Market Indicators - September 2014
South Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
130
190
90
115
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.25
7.75
8.25
9.25
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
30
40
30
40
1,625
2,375
950
1,350
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
South West Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
95
120
65
95
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.25
7.75
8.25
9.25
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
18
22
18
22
1,100
1,300
750
1,100
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
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Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Outer South West Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
80
100
65
80
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.25
8.50
8.50
9.50
IRR (%)
9.25
9.75
9.75
10.25
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
15
20
15
20
Capital Values ($/sq m)
850
1,150
650
850
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
Central West Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
105
135
80
100
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.25
7.75
8.25
9.25
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
20
27
20
27
1,150
1,450
700
1,150
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
North West Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
95
115
70
90
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.25
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
18
25
18
25
1,100
1,300
700
950
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
Western Sydney
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
100
120
70
95
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
7.25
7.75
8.25
9.25
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
18
27
18
27
1,100
1,400
700
1,100
Source: Savills Research
North Shore
Prime
Secondary
Low
High
Low
High
Rental Net Face ($/sq m)
135
190
105
130
Yield – (% Net Face Rental)
8.00
9.00
9.00
10.00
IRR (%)
9.25
9.50
9.50
10.00
40
50
40
50
1,500
2,300
1,000
1,300
Outgoings – total ($/sq m)
Capital Values ($/sq m)
Source: Savills Research
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11
Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Outlook
Over the next 12 months Savills anticipates the Sydney industrial investment market to
remain extremely strong as the weight of funds from local REITs, coupled with overseas
third party capital seeking to invest in Australia, has created a seller’s market.
The lack of A Grade investment stock available for purchase helped to tighten yields in
2014, which are expected to tighten further leading into 2015.
This current yield compression has resulted in the increase of sale and leaseback
investments on offer as companies seek to shift property ownership off their balance sheet
to capitalise on improving market conditions. Savills expects A-REITs to continue to have a
strong appetite for prime assets, as demonstrated by Goodman, Mirvac, Charter Hall,
DEXUS, GPT, Australian Industrial REIT, 360 Capital and PropertyLink, all of whom acquired
logistic type properties over the last 12 months.
In the last 12 months, industrial-zoned land banks have become highly sought after as AREITs acquired over $225 million of sites focusing their attention on building their portfolios
organically. Examples include Stockland, Goodman, Mirvac, DEXUS and Australand all
purchasing 10 hectare plus sites.
Savills believes land values for larger sites (>10 hectares) will lift as A-REITs compete to
acquire well located land in Sydney’s Western precincts. These rates range anywhere
between $225 and $300 per square metre for serviced and benched sites.
Looking forward, Savills anticipates owner occupiers will continue to seek two to four
hectare sites which will put further pressure on supply, as demand will continue to drive
value. ‘Build to lease’ development remains active as DEXUS, Australand, Fitzpatrick
Investment and Goodman are all developing facilities in Western Sydney without
precommitments. Approximately 90,000 square metres of speculative space is expected to
come to market between now and the final quarter of 2015.
Over the last three months, new leasing enquiries have predominantly been from major
logistic companies and retailers seeking circa 10,000 square metres of space in Western
Sydney. However, Savills is aware of a couple of ‘mega shed’ requirements ranging from
40,000 square metres to 90,000 square metres. This demand is expected to be met through
precommitments.
Over the next 12 months, Savills expects to see rental growth for prime industrial stock in
most Sydney precincts. Opportunities exist for developers as confidence in economic
conditions and growing container movements point towards solid key indicators for the
industrial markets.
savills.com.au/research
12
Savills Research | Sydney Industrial
October 2014
Savills New South Wales Team
Our highly regarded research
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