MARKETBEAT The DNA of Real Estate EUROPE Q3 2014

MARKETBEAT
The DNA of Real Estate
EUROPE
Q3 2014
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR)
Q3 2012
All Countries
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
15.0%
5.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.5%
Eastern Europe
2.6%
-0.3%
-2.7%
-5.0%
Central Europe
0.0%
-1.2%
0.2%
-10.0%
EU Countries
-0.4%
0.3%
1.4%
EMU Countries
-0.5%
-0.1%
0.9%
Western Europe
7.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-7.5%
West (Left)
CEE (Left)
EU (Left)
EMU (Left)
East (Right)
-15.0%
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
-15.0%
-22.5%
-30.0%
Sep-14
HIGH STREET RETAIL RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR)
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
All Countries
3.7%
4.4%
2.9%
Western Europe
3.8%
4.3%
2.8%
-5.0%
Eastern Europe
3.4%
5.1%
3.1%
-10.0%
Central Europe
-4.7%
0.6%
0.5%
EU Countries
2.9%
3.8%
2.6%
EMU Countries
3.9%
3.5%
3.0%
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
West
East
CEE
EU
EMU
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
LOGISTICS RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR)
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
0.1%
0.6%
-0.6%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.5%
Eastern Europe
1.3%
-0.2%
-5.4%
Central Europe
0.0%
-3.0%
-2.1%
EU Countries
-0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
EMU Countries
-0.7%
0.5%
0.1%
All Countries
Western Europe
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
West
East
CEE
EU
EMU
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
ALL SECTOR YIELD AGGREGATES AND 10 YR MOVEMENTS
16.00%
All Countries
6.67%
6.59%
6.46%
13.00%
Western Europe
6.04%
5.96%
5.70%
10.00%
Eastern Europe
9.36%
9.21%
9.51%
Central Europe
7.61%
7.60%
7.47%
EU Countries
6.25%
6.18%
5.93%
EMU Countries
6.28%
6.24%
6.00%
10 yr yield range
Current yield level
7.00%
ALL
WEST
EAST
Notes:
Western Europe countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
Eastern Europe countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine
Central Europe countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia
EU countries: corresponds to the members of the European Union
EMU countries: corresponds to the members of the euro zone
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
RET
IND
OFF
RET
EU
IND
OFF
RET
CEE
IND
OFF
RET
IND
OFF
RET
IND
4.00%
OFF
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
RET
Q3 2014
IND
Q3 2013
OFF
Q3 2012
EMU
KEY EUROPEAN OFFICES IN FOCUS
PRIME RENTS
PRIME YIELDS
COUNTRY
CITY
RENT
FREQUENCY
LOCAL
MEASURE
€
SQ.M/YR
US$
SQ.FT/YR
ANNUAL
GROWTH
Austria
Vienna
sq.m/mth
€25.00
€300
$35.2
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€275
€275
Bulgaria
Sofia
sq.m/mth
€12.50
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
Denmark
Copenhagen
sq.m/yr
Finland
Helsinki
sq.m/mth
France
Paris
sq.m/yr
Germany
Berlin
Germany
Frankfurt
Germany
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
CURRENT
VALUES
QUARTERLY
SHIFT
ANNUAL
SHIFT
0.0%
4.75%
0 bp
-15 bp
$32.3
0.0%
6.25%
0 bp
0 bp
€150
$17.6
0.0%
9.00%
-25 bp
-50 bp
€19.50
€234
$27.5
-4.9%
6.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Dkr1,800
€242
$28.4
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
€32.50
€390
$45.8
1.6%
5.25%
0 bp
0 bp
€750
€750
$88.0
-7.4%
4.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
sq.m/mth
€22.00
€264
$31.0
0.0%
4.50%
0 bp
-50 bp
sq.m/mth
€37.00
€444
$52.1
0.0%
4.70%
-5 bp
-10 bp
Hamburg
sq.m/mth
€24.00
€288
$33.8
0.0%
4.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
Germany
Munich
sq.m/mth
€33.00
€396
$46.5
4.8%
4.00%
0 bp
-20 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf
sq.m/mth
€26.50
€318
$37.3
-3.6%
4.60%
0 bp
-25 bp
Greece
Athens
sq.m/mth
€19.00
€228
$26.8
-5.0%
8.50%
-30 bp
-100 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€21.00
€252
$29.6
0.0%
7.25%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Ireland
Dublin
sq.m/yr
€441
€441
$51.8
28.3%
4.90%
0 bp
-135 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€420
€420
$49.3
-1.2%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Italy
Milan
sq.m/yr
€475
€475
$55.7
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Luxembourg
Luxembourg City sq.m/mth
€45.00
€540
$63.4
4.7%
5.20%
0 bp
0 bp
Macedonia
Skopje
sq.m/mth
€13.50
€162
$19.0
0.0%
9.25%
0 bp
0 bp
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
sq.m/yr
€370
€370
$43.4
2.8%
6.20%
-5 bp
-10 bp
Norway
Oslo
sq.m/yr
Nkr4,800
€592
$69.4
6.7%
4.75%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Poland
Warsaw
sq.m/mth
€25.00
€300
$35.2
-2.0%
6.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
Portugal
Lisbon
sq.m/mth
€19.00
€228
$26.8
2.7%
6.25%
-25 bp
-150 bp
Romania
Bucharest
sq.m/mth
€19.00
€228
$26.8
0.0%
8.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Russia
Moscow
sq.m/yr
$1,000
€792
$92.9
-16.7%
9.25%
50 bp
75 bp
Slovakia
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
€15.00
€180
$21.1
0.0%
7.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Spain
Madrid
sq.m/mth
€25.50
€306
$35.9
4.1%
5.50%
0 bp
-50 bp
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
€17.75
€213
$25.0
0.0%
5.75%
0 bp
-50 bp
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Skr4,750
€522
$61.2
2.2%
4.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Switzerland
Zurich
sq.m/yr
Sfr750
€621
$72.9
-1.3%
3.80%
0 bp
5 bp
Switzerland
Geneva
sq.m/yr
Sfr800
€663
$77.8
0.0%
4.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Turkey
Istanbul
sq.m/mth
$45.00
€427
$50.2
2.3%
7.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Ukraine
Kiev
sq.m/yr
$390
€309
$36.2
-9.3%
13.00%
50 bp
50 bp
United Kingdom
London
sq.ft/yr
£115.00
€1,589
$186.4
4.5%
3.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£31.00
€428
$50.3
3.3%
5.25%
-25 bp
-75 bp
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£27.50
€380
$44.6
0.0%
5.25%
-25 bp
-75 bp
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£29.50
€408
$47.8
1.7%
5.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£28.00
€387
$45.4
3.7%
5.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
NOTES:
Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield LLP
43-45 Portman Square
London W1A 3BG
www.cushmanwakefield.com/research
This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield LLP or use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is
not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources
which Cushman & Wakefield LLP believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. The
report also refers to these economic sources: Consensus Economics Inc.; The Economist; Reuters; Capital Economics; Oxford Economics Ltd; Centre for
Business & Economic Research. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information
contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield LLP shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. All expressions of
opinion are subject to change. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part. Should you not wish to
receive information from Cushman & Wakefield LLP or any related company, please email [email protected] with your details in the body of
your email as they appear on this communication and head it “Unsubscribe”. ©2014 Cushman & Wakefield LLP. All rights reserved.
KEY EUROPEAN HIGH STREETS IN FOCUS
PRIME RENTS
PRIME YIELDS
COUNTRY
CITY
RENT
FREQUENCY
LOCAL
MEASURE
€
SQ.M/YR
US$
SQ.FT/YR
Austria
Vienna
sq.m/mth
€300
€3,600
$423
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€1,750
€1,750
Bulgaria
Sofia
sq.m/mth
€44
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
Denmark
Copenhagen
sq.m/yr
Finland
Helsinki
sq.m/mth
France
Paris
sq.m/yr
Germany
Berlin
Germany
Frankfurt
Germany
ANNUAL SHORT TERM
GROWTH
OUTLOOK
CURRENT
VALUES
QUARTERLY
SHIFT
ANNUAL
SHIFT
0.0%
4.10%
0 bp
-10 bp
$205
-2.8%
4.25%
-10 bp
-10 bp
€528
$62.0
10.0%
9.25%
0 bp
0 bp
€185
€2,220
$261
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
-75 bp
Dkr17,750
€2,384
$280
4.4%
4.10%
-40 bp
-65 bp
€164
€1,968
$231
2.5%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
€18,000
€13,255
$1,556
0.0%
3.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
sq.m/mth
€295
€3,540
$415
3.5%
4.20%
-20 bp
-30 bp
sq.m/mth
€310
€3,720
$437
5.1%
4.10%
-10 bp
-30 bp
Hamburg
sq.m/mth
€305
€3,660
$430
3.4%
4.10%
-5 bp
-5 bp
Germany
Munich
sq.m/mth
€365
€4,380
$514
1.4%
3.50%
0 bp
-30 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf
sq.m/mth
€275
€3,300
$387
3.8%
4.10%
-15 bp
-30 bp
Greece
Athens
sq.m/mth
€180
€2,160
$254
9.1%
7.00%
0 bp
-80 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€95
€1,140
$134
5.6%
6.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Ireland
Dublin
sq.m/yr
€4,500
€2,529
$297
5.9%
4.50%
-25 bp
-175 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€8,000
€8,000
$939
14.3%
4.75%
0 bp
0 bp
Italy
Milan
sq.m/yr
€8,500
€8,500
$998
13.3%
4.75%
0 bp
0 bp
Luxembourg
Luxembourg City sq.m/mth
€125
€1,500
$176
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Macedonia
Skopje
sq.m/mth
€35
€420
$49
0.0%
9.25%
0 bp
25 bp
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
sq.m/yr
€2,900
€2,900
$340
0.0%
4.10%
-40 bp
-40 bp
Norway
Oslo
sq.m/yr
Nkr25,000
€3,081
$362
11.1%
4.75%
0 bp
-25 bp
Poland
Warsaw
sq.m/mth
€85
€1,020
$120
2.4%
7.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
Portugal
Lisbon
sq.m/mth
€93
€1,110
$130
2.8%
6.00%
-25 bp
-100 bp
Romania
Bucharest
sq.m/mth
€50
€600
$70.4
0.0%
9.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Russia
Moscow
sq.m/yr
$6,000
€4,749
$557
20.0%
13.00%
100 bp
100 bp
Slovakia
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
€40
€480
$56.3
-4.8%
7.50%
0 bp
25 bp
Spain
Madrid
sq.m/mth
€245
€2,940
$345
2.1%
4.50%
-15 bp
-35 bp
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
€270
€3,240
$380
1.9%
4.50%
-15 bp
-35 bp
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Skr14,900
€1,636
$192
1.4%
4.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Switzerland
Zurich
sq.m/yr
Sfr9,000
€7,456
$875
1.1%
3.70%
-10 bp
-10 bp
Switzerland
Geneva
sq.m/yr
Sfr4,000
€3,314
$389
0.0%
4.25%
0 bp
0 bp
Turkey
Istanbul
sq.m/mth
$280
€2,660
$312
24.4%
5.80%
0 bp
-20 bp
Ukraine
Kiev
sq.m/yr
$2,400
€1,900
$223
-20.0%
13.00%
50 bp
50 bp
United Kingdom
London
sq.ft/yr
£1,250
€10,361
$1,216
4.2%
2.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£250
€1,761
$207
0.0%
5.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£250
€1,761
$207
0.0%
5.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£190
€1,805
$212
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£255
€2,422
$284
0.0%
5.00%
0 bp
0 bp
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
NOTES:
Rents in France, Ireland and the UK relate to Zone A.
Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield LLP
43-45 Portman Square
London W1A 3BG
www.cushmanwakefield.com/research
This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield LLP or use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is
not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources
which Cushman & Wakefield LLP believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. The
report also refers to these economic sources: Consensus Economics Inc.; The Economist; Reuters; Capital Economics; Oxford Economics Ltd; Centre for
Business & Economic Research. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information
contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield LLP shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. All expressions of
opinion are subject to change. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part. Should you not wish to
receive information from Cushman & Wakefield LLP or any related company, please email [email protected] with your details in the body of
your email as they appear on this communication and head it “Unsubscribe”. ©2014 Cushman & Wakefield LLP. All rights reserved.
KEY EUROPEAN LOGISTICS IN FOCUS
PRIME RENTS
PRIME YIELDS
COUNTRY
CITY
RENT
FREQUENCY
LOCAL
MEASURE
€
SQ.M/YR
US$
SQ.FT/YR
Austria
Vienna
sq.m/mth
€4.75
€57
$6.69
Belgium
Brussels
sq.m/yr
€47
€47
Bulgaria
Sofia
sq.m/mth
€3.75
Czech Republic
Prague
sq.m/mth
Denmark
Copenhagen
sq.m/yr
Finland
Helsinki
sq.m/mth
France
Paris
sq.m/yr
Germany
Berlin
Germany
ANNUAL SHORT TERM
GROWTH
OUTLOOK
CURRENT
VALUES
QUARTERLY
SHIFT
ANNUAL
SHIFT
0.0%
7.25%
0 bp
-25 bp
$5.52
0.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-10 bp
€45
$5.28
7.1%
11.75%
0 bp
0 bp
€3.80
€46
$5.35
0.0%
7.25%
-25 bp
-100 bp
Dkr500
€67
$7.88
0.0%
7.50%
0 bp
0 bp
€7.50
€90
$10.56
0.0%
7.50%
0 bp
0 bp
€52
€52
$6.10
0.0%
7.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
sq.m/mth
€5.90
€71
$8.31
1.7%
6.90%
-10 bp
-30 bp
Frankfurt
sq.m/mth
€6.95
€83
$9.79
0.0%
6.30%
-20 bp
-30 bp
Germany
Hamburg
sq.m/mth
€5.80
€70
$8.17
3.6%
6.35%
-15 bp
-15 bp
Germany
Munich
sq.m/mth
€7.00
€84
$9.86
0.0%
6.35%
-15 bp
-15 bp
Germany
Dusseldorf
sq.m/mth
€5.70
€68
$8.03
0.0%
6.40%
-20 bp
-20 bp
Greece
Athens
sq.m/mth
€4.00
€48
$5.63
0.0%
11.00%
0 bp
-200 bp
Hungary
Budapest
sq.m/mth
€3.40
€41
$4.79
0.0%
9.00%
-25 bp
0 bp
Ireland
Dublin
sq.m/yr
€70
€70
$8.22
4.5%
6.75%
-25 bp
-175 bp
Italy
Rome
sq.m/yr
€55
€55
$6.45
0.0%
8.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Italy
Milan
sq.m/yr
€53
€53
$6.22
-3.6%
7.75%
0 bp
0 bp
Luxembourg
Luxembourg City sq.m/mth
€7.00
€84
$9.86
0.0%
8.50%
0 bp
0 bp
The Netherlands
Amsterdam
sq.m/yr
€88
€88
$10.27
0.0%
7.60%
0 bp
-10 bp
Norway
Oslo
sq.m/yr
Nkr1,150
€142
$16.63
4.5%
6.25%
-25 bp
-25 bp
Poland
Warsaw
sq.m/mth
€5.50
€66
$7.75
0.0%
7.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Portugal
Lisbon
sq.m/mth
€3.75
€45
$5.28
-6.3%
8.25%
-50 bp
-150 bp
Romania
Bucharest
sq.m/mth
€3.20
€38
$4.51
-3.0%
9.75%
0 bp
25 bp
Russia
Moscow
sq.m/yr
$120
€95
$11.15
-11.1%
11.50%
25 bp
0 bp
Slovakia
Bratislava
sq.m/mth
€3.60
€43
$5.07
0.0%
8.50%
0 bp
-25 bp
Spain
Madrid
sq.m/mth
€5.25
€63
$7.39
5.0%
8.00%
0 bp
-25 bp
Spain
Barcelona
sq.m/mth
€5.00
€60
$7.04
0.0%
8.00%
0 bp
-50 bp
Sweden
Stockholm
sq.m/yr
Skr1,050
€115
$13.53
0.0%
6.50%
0 bp
0 bp
Switzerland
Zurich
sq.m/yr
Sfr145
€120
$14.10
-3.3%
5.60%
0 bp
10 bp
Switzerland
Geneva
sq.m/yr
Sfr180
€149
$17.50
5.9%
6.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Turkey
Istanbul
sq.m/mth
$7.50
€71
$8.36
-2.6%
9.00%
0 bp
0 bp
Ukraine
Kiev
sq.m/yr
$72
€57
$6.69
0.0%
14.00%
150 bp
300 bp
United Kingdom
London
sq.ft/yr
£13.00
€180
$21.08
2.0%
5.00%
-25 bp
-50 bp
United Kingdom
Manchester
sq.ft/yr
£5.75
€79
$9.32
0.0%
5.75%
-25 bp
-75 bp
United Kingdom
Birmingham
sq.ft/yr
£5.75
€79
$9.32
0.0%
5.75%
-25 bp
-75 bp
United Kingdom
Edinburgh
sq.ft/yr
£7.25
€100
$11.75
0.0%
7.75%
-50 bp
-100 bp
United Kingdom
Glasgow
sq.ft/yr
£6.25
€86
$10.13
0.0%
7.75%
-25 bp
-75 bp
SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK
NOTES:
Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
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The DNA of
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Q3 2014
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
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