Document 6576996

Market Report
28 October 2014
Important events for this week:
rd
Today: CEC - Winter 3 Production and Summer Intentions to Plant
INDEX TABLE
CBOT Dec Corn
CBOT Dec Wheat
CBOT Nov Soya
R/$
Brent Crude Spot
Previous day
12pm
3.4900
5.1425
9.7050
10.9723
85.69
Present
day
3.6400
5.2525
10.0150
10.9492
85.35
Change
15.00
11.00
31.00
-0.023
-0.34
CBOT
$/mt
143.30
192.99
367.98
SA $/mt
178.55
330.25
479.30
Implied Parity
Move
R 61.49
R 39.89
R 116.48
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
CORN/MAIZE
CBOT – Dec ▲10.00c/bu @ 363.00c
Overnights Dec ▲1.25c/bu @ 364.25c
 Corn prices closed higher last night defying what was expected before the market opened.
Weather forecasts in the US and Brazil were seen as bearish for prices but the US corn market
found support from tight corn stocks in the US and sharply higher soya prices. Farmers are not
selling as they concentrate on getting their crops off the land
 The drier US weather is helping the harvest but most farmers are focusing on their soya crops
at the moment as they are more vulnerable to the weather than corn
 US weekly export inspections were lower than expected
 Recent rain in Brazil is helping the plantings after a dry start to the season while Argentina is
expected to get welcome rain after some hot, dry weather
 The talk of EU feed wheat being imported into the US gained further legs with reports of UK
feed wheat also making its way across the Atlantic
WHEAT
CBOT – Dec ▲5.00c/bu @ 522.75c
Overnights Dec ▲2.25c/bu @ 525.00c
 Concerns over a poor start to Russia’s wheat season as well as problems with Australia’s crop
is offering support to the wheat market
 US weekly export inspections were below market expectations
SOYA COMPLEX
Soya Beans – Nov ▲28.50c/bu @ 1006.00c
Overnights Nov ▼4.00c/bu @ 1002.00c
Soya Meal - Dec ▲$29.90@ $378.30/short ton; Soya Oil - Dec ▼0.09c@ 32.26c/lb
 Bean prices posted strong gains last night with higher meal prices and demand for US beans
offering support. Funds bought 15k contracts
 Weekly US export inspections were pegged at 2.195, which was much higher than expected
The USDA also announced separate sales of 120kmt of US beans to China and a further
110kmt to an unknown destination
SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Yellow
Maize
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
White Maize
M-T-M
Nov WM
R 1 864
-28
594
-8
Nov YM
R 1 923
-9
213
6
Dec WM
R 1 880
-20
12 321
210
Dec YM
R 1 934
-24
7 837
-124
Mar WM
R 1 893
-17
12 223
-8
Mar YM
R 1 955
-29
5 333
14
May WM
R 1 899
-36
232
4
May YM
R 1 950
-20
135
1
Jul WM
R 1 915
-5
3 059
112
Jul YM
R 1 933
-20
2 282
63
R0
0
-
0
R0
0
-
0
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Sep WM
Change
M-T-M
Sep YM
Change
Corn in
Rands
M-T-M
Dec Crn
R 1 516
-58
1 290
24
Nov Wht
R0
0
-
0
Mar Crn
R 1 600
-56
143
2
Dec Wht
R 3 616
-15
13 194
-49
Jul Crn
R 1 708
-55
279
48
Mar Wht
R 3 693
-14
3 916
129
May Wht
R 3 745
1
218
5
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Wheat
Change
M-T-M
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
R 4 670
-95
3
0
Nov Soya
R 5 200
-89
39
16
Dec Suns
R 4 729
-61
6 409
70
Dec Soya
R 5 248
-78
6 670
-87
Mar Suns
R 4 550
-100
273
0
Mar Soya
R 5 120
-69
949
8
May Suns
R 4 145
-45
494
2
May Soya
R 4 510
-64
1 503
13
Sunflower
M-T-M
Nov Suns
Soya
Change
M-T-M
Maize prices closed lower yesterday on the back of lower US prices, the stronger rand and recent
rain over the eastern growing regions. Prices did however find late buying support and
outperformed the CBOT/ Rand index.
COMMENTARY
Weekly US Crop Progress and Conditions: The US corn harvest progress lags the averages,
for this time of the year, but last week’s progress did come out higher than the market expected.
The soya harvest is progressing well slowly catching up with the averages. The first winter wheat
crop condition report came out close to the averages but the market was expecting higher
numbers in the good to excellent category.
US Corn Harvesting Progress (%)
Last
Week Ending Current
week
26-Oct
46
31
Extreme values
Last
Year
56
5yr
Ave.
65
10yr
Ave.
62
20yr
Ave.
65
US Soya Beans Harvesting Progress (%)
Last
Last
Week Ending Current
week
Year
26-Oct
70
53
75
5yr
Ave.
76
10yr
Ave.
79
20yr
Ave.
81
Current
96
Last
week
93
Year
2012
Lowest
21
Year
2009
Lowest
44
Year
1985
Extreme values
Corn Mature (%)
Week Ending
26-Oct
Highest
90
Last
Year
97
5yr
Ave.
97
Highest
92
Year
2010
US Winter Wheat Planting Progress (%)
Week
Last
Last
Ending
Current
week
Year
26-Oct
84
76
85
US Winter Wheat Crop Condition (%)
Last
Week Ending
Current
week
Good to
Excellent
26-Oct
59
0
Poor to very
Poor
26-Oct
7
0
Extreme values
5yr
Ave.
84
10yr
Ave.
86
20yr
Ave.
86
Highest
91
Year
1987
Lowest
76
Year
2009
Extreme values
Last
Year
10yr
Ave.
20yr
Ave.
Highest
Year
Lowest
Year
61
59
60
76
2004
47
2011
4
8
9
17
2003
2
2004
Rand: The rand was little changed yesterday, bidding time ahead of a data-heavy week that will
drive direction.
The rand traded within Friday's levels and held below the psychologically important 11 mark gains that were taken after a well-received interim budget from the finance minister last
Wednesday.
Analysts said South African markets have been sought out as the economy shows signs of
recovery after being dragged to contraction in the first quarter by months of strikes in key sectors
such as platinum mining.
However, the finance minister will have to live up to the fiscal commitments made in the budget.
"Despite these positive developments, there are still reasons to be concerned about South Africa.
The economy is still only growing slowly and it remains to be seen whether the government will go
through with its plan to reduce the budget deficit," said Jack Allen of Capital Economics.
Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene made commitments to rein in government spending, raise
revenue and support struggling state-owned companies without putting pressure on the budget
last week, cheering the rand and bonds.
This week's events likely to move the rand will start with a speech by Deputy Governor Daniel
Mminele to financial market professionals this evening, followed by credit data and a central bank
report on the banking system tomorrow.
The back end of the week sees the release of third quarter jobless numbers and September
producer inflation numbers, and closes with revenue collection figures and trade data on Friday.
CEC: The CEC could reduce its estimate for maize plantings this season to 2.48mil ha because of
a lack of rain, a survey of three estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Last season, 2.688mil ha were
sown. The CEC will release its intentions to plant report this afternoon.
WEATHER
SA:
Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Dit is weer bewolk oor die oostelike hoëveld maar ek dink vandag gaan
die wolke wegbrand deur die loop van die oggend. Die band oor die sentrale en suidelike
binneland is meestal middel en hoë wolke waar daar nog vanoggend enkele donderstorms
voorkom. Nou nie baie nie, maar Kirkwood naby PE het sowat 7mm gekry en ander kolle sowat
0.2mm tot 1mm. In die band van wolke behoort daar weer vanmiddag enkele los hitte storms voor
te kom maar met die gebrek aan enige noemenswaardige bolug om te help gaan dit enkel wees
en die verspreiding swak. Niks dramaties wat ek kan aflei vanoggend maar onthou hitte storms
sonder reën kan die veld aan die brand steek, so wees reg en voorbereid as iets snaaks sou
gebeur.
International:
US: The DTN Ag weather forecast calls for favourable harvest conditions across the central U.S.
during this week. There are no significant concerns for the harvest of summer crops and planting
of winter wheat during the next seven days, although some may see a little rain at times.
South America: In central Brazil, weekend rain totals of 25 to 50mm, with local amounts over 100
mm were noted. These rains are beneficial for soil moisture for soybean planting. More frequent
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next week. This will allow increased planting
across the region following the very hot and dry weather of the past few weeks that halted
planting.
PIVOT POINTS
Intraday Pivot Points
Second Resistance
First Resistance
Pivot
First Support
Second Support
Dec WM
1905
1890
1870
1855
1835
Dec YM
1947
1938
1927
1918
1907
Dec
Corn
1519
1516
1515
1513
1512
Dec
Wheat
3625
3621
3615
3611
3605
Dec
Suns
4777
4743
4717
4683
4657
Dec Soya
5294
5268
5254
5228
5214
CONTACT DETAILS
POINTS
Pretoria
274 Emus Erasmus Ave
Erasmusrand
Pretoria
012 940 8347
John
012 940 8349
cell: 082 456 7434
[email protected]
Juanita
Tel: 012 940 8348
cell: 084 824 0902
[email protected]
P.O. Box 25082
Monument Park, 0105
The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources which we believe are reliable. Agcom
(Pty) Ltd does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect
judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Agcom (Pty) Ltd is strictly prohibited.
▲►▼