MEMS & Sensors for IoT: how big can it be? IHS Presentation

IHS
Presentation
MEMS & Sensors
MEMS & Sensors for IoT: how big can it be?
September 21st 2014
Jérémie Bouchaud, Director and Senior Principal Analyst, MEMS & Sensors
[email protected]
Marwan Boustany, Senior Analyst, Consumer MEMS and Sensors
[email protected]
© 2014 IHS
ihs.com
Contents
MARKET TODAY:
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
Smartphones and tablets
Wearables
THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM: AUTOMOTIVE
‫‮‬
THE MARKET IN THE MID TO LONG TERM: INDUSTRIAL IOT
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
smart homes
smart cities
smart factories
© 2014 IHS
2
Connected Device Hierarchy: IOT
Internet of
Things
IP
Addressable
Connected
Non-IP
Addressable
Electronic
Internet
Connected
Internet connected,
IP addressable,
Electronic devices
Closed
Network
Unconnected
All Objects
Tagged
Internet of
Everything
NonElectronic
Untagged

Unconnected Objects: Desk, chair, soda
can, fire hydrant, animal collar, shipping
pallet, buildings, etc.

Connected Electronic Devices: Bluetooth
headset, printer, computer monitor, DVD
player, licensed mobile radio unit, etc.

Unconnected Electronic Devices:
Calculator, streetlight, vending machine,
coffee maker, blood pressure monitor, etc.

IP-addressable Connected Devices:
Tablet PC, smartphone, Infotainment
head unit, smart meter, EV charging
station, home health hub, etc.
Source: IHS
© 2014
The Market Today
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
Smartphones and tablets
Wearables
© 2014 IHS
4
Shipment of sensors which are relevant for IoT scenario
in handsets and tablets (touch sensor not included)
25
Biometric sensors (fingerprint,
retina scanning...)
Billions of units
20
Health/environment sensors
(Pulse, Gas, Humidity, UV,
Temp)
15
Imaging sensors (VIS and
thermal)
10
Light sensors: ALS, prox, RGB
Microphones
5
Motion sensors: accelero, mag,
gyro, pressure and combo
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sensor elements counted e.g. 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro)
© 2014 IHS
5
Shipment of sensors for wearable takes off
Sensor shipment by wearable device category
0.7
Smart earbuds / headsets
Billions of units
0.6
Sports & Running Computers
Outdoor Pursuits Computers
0.5
Foot Pods & Pedometers
0.4
Action cameras
0.3
Smart clothing and other
wearables
Activity Monitors
0.2
Fitness & Heart Rate Monitors
0.1
Smart Glasses
Smart Watches
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014
Sensor elements counted e,g, 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro)
© 2014 IHS
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Shipment of sensors for wearable by sensor type
Sensor shipment by sensor type
0.7
Environment sensors (UV,
humidity, temp, gas)
Billions of units
0.6
0.5
Heath sensors (pulse, oximetry,
skin temp, hydration)
0.4
0.3
UI MEMS/ Sensors
(microphone, ALS, prox)
0.2
0.1
Motion sensors (accelero,
gyro, mag, pressure)
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014
Sensor elements counted e,g, 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro)
© 2014 IHS
7
The Market in the Short Term
© 2014 IHS
8
Total automotive sensor shipment by function
7
Instrument panel illumination
Electrochromic mirror
Windscreen wiper motor
Various switches
Solar sensor
Rain sensor
HVAC valve position
Head rest position
Fuel tank level
Electric sunroof motor
Electric roof (open/close)
Electric front window motor
Compass
Cabin HVAC
Boot (trunk) lock
Tire pressure monitor
Steering wheel angle
Seat track position
Roll detection
Passenger occupation detection
ESC
Electric power steering motor
Crash sensing
Brake fluid level
Airbag
Active suspension
Acceleration pedal
Wideband lambda sensor
Vacuum brake booster pump
Turbocharger speed
Selector lever position
SCR tank level
Oil pressure
NOx sensor
Mass Air Flow
Lambda sensor
In-cylinder pressure
HEV / EV DC-DC subsystem inverter
Gasoline direct injection
Exhaust gas temperature
Exhaust gas recirculation valve motor
Exhaust control valve
EV, PEHV, HEV HVAC compressor motor
Engine speed
Engine coolant temperature
Electronic throttle motor
Dual clutch and AMT motor
Diesel Common fuel rail motor
Crankshaft
Continuous variable transmission
Camshaft
Barometric air pressure
Automatic, AMT, DCT transmission
Air intake temperature
6
Billions of units
5
4
3
2
1
0
Head Unit: Multipurpose
Built-in navigation
Vehicle Alarm
Tunnel detection
Seat motor
Noise cancellation system
HVAC motor
Head rest motor
Electronic Parking Brake
Electric roof motor
Electric rear window motor
Door lock
Cabin temperature, anti-fog
Cabin air quality
Air intake flap motor
Steering wheel torque
Steer by wire motor
Seat belt presence detection
Pedestrian protection
Fuel tank vapor
Electrohydraulic power steering motor
E-call, accident sensor
Brake Light Switch
Brake by wire motor
ADAS
Active suspension
ABS (wheel speed)
Variable lift control actuator
Vacuum brake booster
Turbocharger motor
SCR tank temperature
PM (soot) sensor
Oil level
Neutral position (manual)
Manifold absolute pressure
Knock sensor
HEV / EV motor inverter
HEV / EV battery monitor
Fuel level
Exhaust Gas Recirculation Valve Position
Exhaust gas recirculation
EV, PEHV, HEV propulsion motor
EV, PEHV, HEV engine cooling pump motor
Engine cooling fan
Electronic throttle valve
EGR temperature
Diesel particle filter
Diesel common fuel rail
Coolant level
Clutch position
Battery Monitoring System
Auxillary water pump motor
Ammonia sensor
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS
semiconductor intelligent service
Non semiconductor sensors in powertrain not included (potentiometers, reed, ceramic pressure etc)
© 2014 IHS
9
Total Automotive sensor shipment by domain and by
technology
Automotive sensor shipment
by technology
7
7
6
6
5
5
Billions of units
Billions of units
Automotive sensor shipment
by domain
4
3
2
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Infotainment
Body and Convenience electronics
Chassis and safety
Powertrain
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Radar
Optical sensor
Non semiconductor sensor
MEMS
Magnetic
Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS
semiconductor intelligent service
© 2014 IHS
10
Obvious sensors in IoT scenario: short term
Throttle, EGR valve
position, manifold air
pressure, altitude, mass air
flow, DPF, common fuel rail,
start-stop, EGR, continuous
transmission
Compass, HVAC position,
sunroof, wipers, solar
sensors, head-up display,
MEMS microphones,
brightness, rain, auto
dimming mirror, automatic
lights
Cam/crankshaft position,
engine speed, throttle by
wire, engine oil, brake fluid
level,
Airbag accelerometer, roll
detection, passenger
occupation, in-cylinder
pressure, active suspension
accelerometer
Various brushless DC
motors, cooling fan, coolant
level, ABS, pedestrian
detection, crash sensing
(ultrasound)
ADAS:
Radar, image
sensors,
ultrasonic
sensors, infrared
imagers, LIDAR
© 2014 IHS
Trunk / door lock switches,
electric windows, HVAC,
HUD, air quality, temp. antifog, in-dash navigation
gyroscope, night vision
Wheel speed sensing, fuel
level, seat position, belt
presence, TPMS, fuel vapor
Electronic parking brake,
suspension pressure,
alarm, E-call, electronic
stability control, roll-over
Battery management
sensor, wing mirror position,
steering wheel angle, torque
Cars are becoming increasingly connected
Automotive connected systems shipment
140
120
Millions of units
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Bluetooth
WiFi - 802.11x
Telematics
V2X
Source: IHS Infotainment Semiconductor Intelligent Service
© 2014 IHS
12
Longer term: What else can be done with 6 billion
connected automotive sensors?
• Predictive maintenance?
• Giving early warning of some kind of major engine fault.
• Adjusting of the engine to account for wear over its life.
• (Monetized) services
• Updating the braking or ESC algorithms with new developments (or even standards),.
• Turning on features in a vehicle like hill start assist or TPMS option for a fee as an aftermarket feature.
• Fuel quality. Are you getting the XX octane you are paying for?
• More dynamic reporting for consumer after scheduled maintenance – did they “really”‫‮‬change all the fluids?
Or just charge you for it?
• Monitoring entire fleets
• Collect real time statistical data on new engine, understand what can be improved in future generations.
• Better targeted recall.
• The current architecture is not ready to support these applications.
• Powertrain, infotainment, safety etc. currently use separate networks.
© 2014 IHS
13
The Market in the Mid to Long Term
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
‫‮‬
smart homes
smart cities
smart factories
© 2014 IHS
14
Smart home services install base: the U.S.A. market
Total installed base of Smart Home Services in the USA
20
18
16
Millions
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014
© 2014 IHS
15
Smart homes subscriber services: the U.S.A. market
New subscribers to Smart Homes
service by service type
100%
• Example companies providing smart
home services in the USA:
• ADT
90%
• Nest
80%
• Comcast
70%
• AT&T
60%
• Home Depot
50%
• Lowe‘s
40%
30%
• Cox Communication
20%
• Creston
10%
• Vivint
• FrontPoint Security
0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
• Honeywell
Lighting Controls Subscribers
Energy Management Subscribers
Home Monitoring Subscribers
Hazard Detection Subscribers
IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014
© 2014 IHS
16
Smart homes: the U.S.A. market
Sensor shipment for smart homes
by sensor type
18
18
16
16
14
14
Millions of units
Millions of units
Sensor shipment for smart homes
by service type
12
10
8
6
12
10
8
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2013
2014 2015 2016 2017
Lighting Controls Subscribers
2018
Home Monitoring Subscribers
Hazard Detection Subscribers
Energy Management Subscribers
2013
2014 2015
Motion
Temperature
Gas
Light
Sound
2016 2017 2018
Magnetic
Smoke
Humidity
Water
IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results
© 2014 IHS
17
Smart cities: deployment by region
• IHS Technology definition of a
Number of smart cities
Smart City
100
90
80
70
• A city that has deployed, or is
Americas
currently piloting, the integration
of ICT solutions across three or
more of the following functions:
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Asia-Pacific
• Mobility and transport
60
• Energy and sustainability
50
• Physical infrastructure
40
• Governance, safety and security
30
• In order to improve efficiency,
20
10
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2025
manage complexity and
enhance citizen quality of life,
leading to a sustainable
improvement in city operation.
IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects – World
– 2014
© 2014 IHS
18
Smart cities by function
Smart cities by functional area (multiple
functions/city)
• Smart ticketing
• Smart parking
100%
Governance
90%
• Intelligent transportation systems
• Energy and sustainibiltiy
80%
Safety and
Security
70%
60%
Physical
Infrastructure
50%
• Smart grid
• Environmental sensors
• Irrigation management
• Physical Infrastructure
• Smart street lighting
40%
Energy and
Sustainability
30%
20%
Mobility and
Transport
10%
0%
• Smart buildings
• Waste management
• Safety and Security
• Integrated video surveillance
• Predictive analytics
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects –
World – 2014
© 2014 IHS
• Mobility and transport
• Governance
• Mobile reporting applications
• Consolidated services platforms
19
Sensors for smart cities
Sensor shipment for smart cities by
sensor type
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
Millions of units
Millions of units
Sensor shipment for smart city by
service type
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
Traffic Management
Smart Street Lighting
Waste Disposal Management
Air Quality Monitoring
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
Gas
Proximity
Temperature
Particle
Light
Pressure/Force
Motion
Other sensor
Magnetic
Noise
Wind
Vision
IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results
© 2014 IHS
20
Industrial Monitoring and Control
Cellular Modules in Asset Management
45
40
Millions of units
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2012
2013
2014
Industrial Monitoring & Control
2015
2016
Pipeline & Tank Monitoring
2017
2018
Asset Tracking
IHS Cellular Modules for M2M - 2014
© 2014 IHS
21
Cloud based machine health monitoring: potential?
• 300,000 plants in the US
• Machine health of compressors, pumps etc.
• Until now: manual data collectors (Emerson, GE, CSI...)
• Operators from the service provider drive from plant to plant to analyze data.
• Emerging “cloud based“ machine health monitoring e.g. AZIMA
• 1 analyst covers > 100 plants (as opposed to 5 plants with data loggers) with
(typically) 100 machines / plant.
• Vertical organization of analysts by: oil, pharmaceuticals, food, industrial
gases...
• Beyond vibration, machine health monitoring also covers oil quality and
infrared (thermal cameras).
© 2014 IHS
22
Cloud based machine health monitoring: no mass
market for sensors anytime soon...
• Off-line monitoring in most cases
• Only a few vibration sensors are used per plant for monitoring 100s of
machines.
• An operator installs vibration sensors on one machine, records the data and
sends it to a cloud based analysis service provider.
• Then puts the sensor on next machine.
• Process control is reluctant to implement on-line monitoring
• Wired sensors are very expensive.
• Wireless sensors are difficult to implement in industrial environments (EMI)
• Vibration sensors are “expensive“ ($150-$400)
• Site‫‮‬operator‫‮‬is‫‮‬used‫‮‬equipment‫‮‬operating‫‮‬in‫‮‬the‫“‮‬orange‫‮‬zone“.‫‮‬They‫‮‬are‫‮‬not‫‮‬
willing to monitor health of every machine in real time.
© 2014 IHS
23
Conclusion: Sensors for IoT coming in waves
• Handsets and tablets will still make up for most of connected sensors in next
10 years.
• Sensor shipment will more than double in 5 years from 10.4 billion sensors in 2013 to
23.2 billion in 2018.
• Automotive
• 6 billion sensors in 2018.
• ADAS and E-Call sensors are the first sensors to support IoT scenarios.
• As cars are becoming connected car OEMs are exploring how to create value by
leveraging‫“‮‬6‫‮‬billion‫‮‬connected‫‮‬sensors“‫‮‬.
• Industrial IoT
• Sensor opportunity generated by IoT in the range 10s to 100s of millions, not
billions.
• Smart homes is one of largest opportunity for sensors in this category in the next 10
years.
© 2014 IHS
24
IHS currently quantifying the sensor market for
Industrial IoT
• Smart homes
• Agriculture
• Smart cities
• Asset tracking
• Smart factories
• Drones and robotics
• Health monitoring
• Seismic sensing
• Independant living
• Other consumer
• Smart grid
applications e.g. Smart
diapers
• ...
© 2014 IHS
25
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Industrial, Medical, Mil-Aero IoT market
(nodes, controllers, infrastructure)
Industrial Internet Connected Devices – New Device Shipment
8
Other Industrial
7
Test & Measurement
Millions of units
6
Security
Power & Energy
5
Military & Aerospace
4
Medical
3
Lighting
Industrial Automation
2
EFT-POS, Smart Cards
1
Commercial Transport
Building Automation
-
2011
2012
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
IHS Internet of Things report – 2014 Edition
© 2014 IHS
27