DBS Group Hat trick iew

Transcription

COMPANY RESEARCH | Results Review
October 31, 2014
DBS Group
(DBS SP)
Share Price: SGD18.33
MCap (USD): 35.3B
Singapore
Target Price: SGD23.40 (+28%)
ADTV (USD): 49M
Banks
Hat trick
BUY
Key Data
3Q14 beat again, with fees & trading gains. Third consecutive
outperformance.

NIM improved. Fee income lifted by IB. Strong credit quality.
Ample SGD liquidity.
Issued shares (m)
Reiterate BUY & SGD23.40 TP, at 13x FY15E EPS. Our
preferred pick. Best positioned to benefit from rising rates.
Major shareholders:
Beat expectations
3m avg turnover (USDm)
48.7
Free float (%)
69.5
2,450
The positives
-Temasek
29.1%
19.0
150
18.5
145
18.0
140
17.5
135
17.0
130
16.5
125
16.0
120
15.5
115
15.0
110
14.5
105
14.0
100
13.5
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
DBS Group - (LHS, SGD)
First, NIM inched up 1bp QoQ and 8bps YoY to 1.68%, the highest in
nine quarters. This was helped by stable funding costs (-1bp QoQ,
+2bps YoY) and wider average asset yields (unchanged QoQ, +10bps
YoY). Second, loans grew 1.7% QoQ or 8.3% YoY, at the lower end of
guidance. This was led by SGD consumer and corporate loans. Third,
SGD deposits grew 1.0% QoQ or 0.9% YoY to SGD137.3b, with a 77.6%
LDR (UOB: 95.9%, OCBC: 80.2%). Asset quality was also resilient, with
expected pockets of weakness in South and Southeast Asia, mainly
India and Indonesia.
DBS stands to gain the most with its solid deposit franchise when
interest rates rise, in our opinion. Forecasts are unchanged pending
sector review. Reiterate BUY and SGD23.40 TP, based on 13x FY15E
EPS, consistent with its historical mean since Jan 2005.
FY13A
9,098.0
5,180.0
3,485.0
1.4
3.9
0.6
13.0
1.3
3.2
13.63
10.7
0.9
FY14E
9,770.9
5,516.9
3,671.3
1.5
5.3
0.6
12.4
1.2
3.2
14.67
10.6
0.9
FY15E
10,927.9
6,273.4
4,453.9
1.8
21.3
0.6
10.2
1.2
3.3
15.88
11.9
1.0
FY16E
12,799.8
7,675.9
5,615.0
2.3
26.1
0.6
8.1
1.0
3.5
17.54
13.7
1.1
SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
95
DBS Group / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %)
1 Mth 3 Mth 12 Mth
Absolute(%)
(0.5)
1.4
8.8
1.1
5.5
9.1
Relative to index (%)
Maybank vs Market
Positive
Market Recs
Neutral Negative
3
0
Maybank Consensus
19
% +/-
Target Price (SGD)
Maintain BUY; Top sector pick
FY12A
8,514.0
4,900.0
3,343.0
1.4
11.5
0.6
13.6
1.4
3.1
12.98
11.0
1.0
SGD44.9B
Market capitalization
Share Price Performance
3Q14 core PATMI was up 8.4% QoQ and 16.9% YoY to SGD1.01b, to
beat consensus and our estimate of SGD950m. Variances included
stronger-than-expected fees and trading gains (+54% QoQ, +44%
YoY). As with peers, fees performed better than expected (+10.3%
QoQ, +20.1% YoY), especially from IB. UOB’s was up 15.8% QoQ and
16.8% YoY, OCBC’s up 15% and 16%. 9M14 earnings form 78.6% of
our full-year estimate.
FYE Dec (SGD m)
Operating income
Pre-provision profit
Core net profit
Core FDEPS (SGD)
Core FDEPS growth(%)
Net DPS (SGD)
Core FD P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Net dividend yield (%)
Book value (SGD)
ROAE (%)
ROAA (%)
18.52/15.66
52w high/low (SGD)


(Unchanged)
23.40
20.65
13.3
'14 PATMI (SGDm)
3,951
4,020
(1.7)
'15 PATMI (SGDm)
4,454
4,317
3.2
Source: FactSet; Maybank
Above PATMI includes one-off items
Ng Wee Siang
(65) 6231 5838
[email protected]
Ng Li Hiang
(65) 6231 5840
[email protected]
Co. Reg No: 198700034E
MICA (P) : 099/03/2012
DBS Group
Figure 1: Quarterly profit and loss summary
FYE Dec (SGD m)
Net interest income
3Q13
1,406.0
2Q14
1,557.0
3Q14
1,602.0
% QoQ
2.9
% YoY
13.9
Non-interest income
744.0
756.0
912.0
20.6
22.6
Operating income
Less: Overhead expenses
Less: Provisions
2,150.0
2,313.0
2,514.0
8.7
16.9
(949.0)
(1,054.0)
(1,109.0)
5.2
16.9
1,201.0
1,259.0
1,405.0
11.6
17.0
(151.0)
(128.0)
(177.0)
38.3
17.2
Comments
Supported by:
a) Further improvements in NIM to 1.68% (+1bp
QoQ, +8bps YoY), highest in nine quarters.
Stable funding costs (-1bp QoQ, +2bps YoY)
and wider average asset yields (unchanged
QoQ, +10bps YoY).
b) Decent volume growth.
Net trading income was SGD271m (2Q14: SGD176m,
1Q14: SGD362m, 3Q13: SGD188m), outpacing its
SGD220m average since 1Q09.
Like peers, fees also better than expected, up
10.3% QoQ and 20.1% YoY. UOB’s grew 15.8% and
16.8% and OCBC’s, 15% and 16%. Mainly from IBrelated deals.
Mainly staff and IT costs from franchise
investments.
Higher specific allowances for loans of SGD148m
(+68% QoQ, +59% YoY). QoQ leap from absence of
write-backs for significant exposure, likely in Dubai.
Asset quality remained strong with pockets of
weakness in South and Southeast Asia, mainly India
and Indonesia. NPLs increased to SGD2,425m (+4.7%
QoQ, -17.5% YoY), primarily from India. Mainly
manufacturing, and building & construction loans.
Housing NPLs unchanged at SGD110m.
Operating profit
1,050.0
1,131.0
1,228.0
8.6
17.0
Associates
Pretax profit
17.0
1,067.0
12.0
1,143.0
6.0
1,234.0
(50.0)
8.0
(64.7)
15.7
(152.0)
(14.2)
915.0
(180.0)
(15.2)
963.0
(193.0)
(15.6)
1,041.0
7.2
27.0
8.1
13.8
(53.0)
862.0
(33.0)
930.0
(33.0)
1,008.0
8.4
(37.7)
16.9
-
39.0
-
n.a.
n.a.
862.0
969.0
1,008.0
4.0
16.9
Less: Tax
Effective tax rate (%)
Profit after tax
Minorities
Core net profit
Add: One-off gains
Reported net profit
New NPA creation increased to SGD349m in 3Q14
(2Q14: SGD158m, 1Q14: SGD412m, 4Q13: SGD275m,
3Q13: SGD291m).
2Q14 included SGD39m gain from divestment of
operating entities of Hwang Capital (Malaysia).
Source: Company, Maybank KE
October 31, 2014
2
DBS Group
Figure 2: YTD profit and loss summary
SGD m (FYE Dec)
Net interest income
9M13
4,115.0
9M14
4,647.0
(YoY %)
12.9
Comments
Higher asset volume growth and 5bp improvement in NIM.
9M14 NIM rose to 1.67% on better asset yields (+6bps) and stable cost of
funds (+1bp).
Non-interest income
Operating income
2,617.0
2,588.0
(1.1)
6,732.0
7,235.0
7.5
(2,888.0)
3,844.0
(3,204.0)
4,031.0
10.9
4.9
Less: Provisions
(619.0)
(456.0)
(26.3)
Operating profit
3,225.0
3,575.0
10.9
Associates
Pretax profit
66.0
3,291.0
31.0
3,606.0
(53.0)
9.6
Less: Tax
Effective tax rate (%)
Profit after tax
(481.0)
(14.4)
2,810.0
(572.0)
(15.0)
3,034.0
18.9
Minorities
Core net profit
(155.0)
2,655.0
(106.0)
2,928.0
(31.6)
10.3
44.0
280.0
536.4
2,699.0
3,208.0
18.9
Less: Overhead expenses
Add: One-off gains
Reported net profit
Weaker net trading income (-13%) and investment income (-10%).
Fee and commission income increased 8%, led by wealth management,
cards, investment banking and loan-related activities.
From staff and IT costs for franchise investments.
Taken down by:
1) general allowances (-62%) on account of slower loan growth of 8.3% YoY in
Sep 2014 (Sep 2013: +19.4%), and
2) specific allowances (-2%) on write-backs for significant exposure, likely in
Dubai.
8.0
9M14 included the following:
1) SGD39m gain from divestment of operating entities of Hwang Capital
(Malaysia).
2) SGD223m gain from sale of remaining stake in Bank of the Philippine
Islands.
3) SGD25m donation to National Gallery Singapore.
4) SGD43m from sale of fixed assets.
9M13 net gain of SGD44m came from sale of a HK property.
October 31, 2014
3
DBS Group
Figure 3: Ratio analysis
FYE Dec (%)
Asset quality
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.0
SP/NPLs
45.0
44.4
44.5
44.9
46.3
43.8
44.7
40.7
39.2
40.9
40.4
41.6
GP/NPLs
72.7
74.7
74.1
77.5
79.6
82.0
80.7
80.3
83.2
93.1
106.4
103.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
126.0
127.8
129.2
133.9
141.8
141.9
140.9
136.4
135.1
148.0
161.7
159.9
Tier-1
12.9
12.7
12.8
13.4
14.0
12.9
12.9
13.3
13.7
13.1
13.5
13.4
RWCAR
15.8
16.4
15.4
16.5
17.1
15.5
15.5
15.9
16.3
15.3
15.7
15.6
Average lending yields
2.44
2.48
2.49
2.43
2.39
2.37
2.32
2.28
2.30
2.37
2.38
2.38
Average cost of funds
0.76
0.76
0.83
0.82
0.83
0.79
0.75
0.73
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.75
Interest spread
1.68
1.72
1.66
1.61
1.56
1.58
1.57
1.55
1.55
1.61
1.62
1.63
Net interest margin
1.73
1.77
1.72
1.67
1.62
1.64
1.62
1.60
1.61
1.66
1.67
1.68
ROAE - reported
10.2
12.7
10.8
11.2
15.5
11.7
10.8
10.6
11.7
14.4
11.0
11.3
ROAE – cash*
10.2
12.7
10.8
11.2
9.7
11.7
10.3
10.6
9.7
11.6
11.0
11.3
ROAA - reported
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.2
0.9
1.0
ROAA - cash*
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.0
Non-interest inc/op inc*
32.7
38.0
31.9
33.5
34.0
42.7
39.0
34.6
32.4
38.2
32.7
36.3
Fee income/op income*
17.8
18.8
19.5
21.1
19.0
21.9
21.1
21.5
20.4
21.2
21.7
22.1
Cost/income ratio^
46.2
41.7
44.8
45.0
48.1
41.1
43.6
44.1
47.9
43.2
45.6
44.1
Cost/average assets^
1.04
1.04
0.99
1.01
1.06
1.05
1.04
0.96
1.03
1.01
1.01
1.05
SP/average net loans
0.19
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.15
0.21
0.22
0.16
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.23
GP/RWA
0.90
0.90
0.91
0.95
0.97
0.91
0.96
1.00
1.01
0.99
0.99
0.99
Gross NPA
GP/net loans
Provision coverage
Margins
Profitability
Liquidity
86.4
84.6
89.0
84.3
83.1
85.2
85.5
85.0
85.0
84.0
86.0
85.8
Net loan growth
4.9
0.9
4.4
(1.3)
4.0
6.2
5.0
3.0
2.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
Customer deposit growth
2.6
3.0
(0.7)
4.2
5.5
3.6
4.6
3.6
2.8
3.1
(0.7)
1.9
Loan-deposit ratio
*Excluding one-off items
^Excluding one-off items, goodwill charges and amortisation of intangible assets
October 31, 2014
4
DBS Group
Key trends in pictures
Figure 4: Strong asset quality
Figure 5: Provision coverage remained high
Gross NPA (LHS)
Gross NPA ratio (RHS)
(SGD b)
4.4
4.0
(%)
(SGD b)
3.6
4.5
3.2
3.6
(%)
180
4.0
160
3.5
140
3.0
120
1.6
2.5
100
1.2
2.0
80
2.8
3.2
Provision coverage (LHS)
Provision coverage ratio (RHS)
2.4
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
3Q06
3Q08
3Q10
3Q12
3Q14
60
1.5
3Q06
3Q08
3Q10
3Q12
3Q14
Source: Company
Source: Company
Figure 6: NIM continued to inch up …
Figure 7: … though loan growth continued to slow down
Net interest income (LHS)
Net interest margin (RHS)
(SGD m)
1,700
(%)
2.3
1,600
2.2
1,500
2.1
1,400
1,300
2.0
1,200
1.9
1,100
1.8
1,000
1.7
900
1.6
800
700
1.5
3Q06
3Q08
3Q10
3Q12
3Q14
(SGD b)
(YoY %)
Net loans (LHS)
Growth (RHS)
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
3Q06
3Q08
3Q10
3Q12
Source: Company
Source: Company
Figure 8: Most liquid SGD book among the three Singapore
banks
Figure 9: USD LDR highest among the three
(SGD b)
160.0
SGD loans (LHS)
SGD deposits (LHS)
SGD LDR (RHS)
78
75
(%)
80.0
75.0
140.0
70.0
64
100.0
65.0
60
80.0
60.0
57
55
60.0
55.0
50.0
40.0
2008
Source: Company
October 31, 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
USD loans (LHS)
USD deposits (LHS)
USD LDR (RHS)
(SGD b)
100.0
90.0
(%)
170
160
151
80.0
69
120.0
3Q14
2013
3Q14
150
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
140
128
127
130
120
113
98
104
101
110
100
20.0
90
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3Q14
Source: Company
5
DBS Group
Figure 10: PBT in Greater China
Figure 11: Loans by region as at end-Sep 2014
(SGD m)
500
453
450
400
350
312
332
309
300
250
Rest of the
world,
SGD20.5b
(8%)
South &
Southeast
Asia,
SGD23.6b
(9%)
321
272
236
200
Greater
China,
SGD95.9b
(36%)
215
154
Singapore,
SGD125.1b
(47%)
150
100
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Source: Company
October 31, 2014
Source: Company
6
DBS Group
FYE 31 Dec
Key Metrics
Core P/E (x)
Core FD P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
P/NTA (x)
Net dividend yield (%)
INCOME STATEMENT (SGD m)
Interest income
Interest expense
Net interest income
Net insurance income
Net fees and commission
Other income
Total non-interest income
Operating income
Staff costs
Other operating expenses
Operating expenses
Loan impairment allowances
Other allowances
Associates & JV income
Pretax profit
Income tax
Minorities
Discontinued operations
Reported net profit
Core net profit
BALANCE SHEET (SGD m)
Cash & deposits with banks
Sec. under resale agreements
Derivatives financial assets
Dealing securities
Available-for-sale securities
Investment securities
Loans & advances
Central bank deposits
Investment in associates/JVs
Insurance assets
Fixed assets
Intangible assets
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits from customers
Deposits from banks & FIs
Derivatives financial instruments
Subordinated debt
Other securities in issue
Other borrowings
Insurance liabilities
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Share capital
Reserves
Shareholders' funds
Preference shares
Minority interest
Total equity
Total liabilities & equity
October 31, 2014
FY12A
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
13.4
13.6
1.4
1.7
3.1
12.9
13.0
1.3
1.6
3.2
12.2
12.4
1.2
1.4
3.2
10.1
10.2
1.2
1.3
3.3
8.0
8.1
1.0
1.2
3.5
7,621.0
(2,336.0)
5,285.0
0.0
1,579.0
1,650.0
3,229.0
8,514.0
(1,888.0)
(1,726.0)
(3,614.0)
4,900.0
(417.0)
0.0
124.0
4,607.0
(588.0)
(226.0)
0.0
3,793.0
3,343.0
7,986.0
(2,417.0)
5,569.0
0.0
1,885.0
1,644.0
3,529.0
9,098.0
(2,065.0)
(1,853.0)
(3,918.0)
5,180.0
(770.0)
0.0
79.0
4,489.0
(615.0)
(218.0)
0.0
3,656.0
3,485.0
8,879.3
(2,707.3)
6,172.0
0.0
2,021.3
1,577.6
3,598.9
9,770.9
(2,321.8)
(1,932.2)
(4,254.0)
5,516.9
(701.2)
0.0
51.4
4,867.0
(730.1)
(185.7)
0.0
3,951.3
3,671.3
10,804.0
(3,573.1)
7,230.9
0.0
2,231.1
1,465.9
3,697.0
10,927.9
(2,551.8)
(2,102.7)
(4,654.5)
6,273.4
(859.1)
0.0
53.9
5,468.3
(820.2)
(194.2)
0.0
4,453.9
4,453.9
14,623.5
(6,019.2)
8,604.3
0.0
2,536.2
1,659.3
4,195.4
12,799.8
(2,804.5)
(2,319.4)
(5,123.9)
7,675.9
(968.9)
0.0
58.2
6,765.2
(947.1)
(203.1)
0.0
5,615.0
5,615.0
29,406.0
0.0
17,280.0
10,927.8
25,498.2
25,448.0
210,519.0
17,772.0
1,236.0
0.0
1,442.0
4,802.0
38,108.0
353,033.0
253,464.0
15,351.0
17,532.0
5,505.0
5,820.0
9,777.0
0.0
9,586.0
317,035.0
2,442.0
29,295.0
31,737.0
0.0
4,261.0
35,998.0
353,033.0
39,817.0
0.0
17,426.0
8,249.1
19,247.9
33,546.0
248,654.0
18,726.0
1,166.0
0.0
1,449.0
4,802.0
48,742.0
402,008.0
292,365.0
13,572.0
18,132.0
5,544.0
23,115.0
2,156.0
0.0
10,241.0
365,125.0
2,449.7
30,980.3
33,430.0
0.0
3,453.0
36,883.0
402,008.0
43,798.7
0.0
17,774.5
8,897.8
20,761.5
36,874.9
268,546.3
22,409.8
1,217.4
0.0
1,463.5
4,802.0
53,066.7
435,814.4
320,139.7
14,929.2
19,582.6
5,544.0
23,115.0
2,223.7
0.0
10,849.8
396,383.9
2,450.0
33,510.6
35,960.6
0.0
3,470.0
39,430.6
435,814.4
52,558.4
0.0
18,130.0
9,913.8
23,132.1
39,508.9
292,715.5
24,919.7
1,271.3
0.0
1,478.1
4,802.0
62,281.9
478,153.3
355,995.3
16,123.5
21,149.2
5,544.0
23,115.0
2,294.7
0.0
11,499.3
435,721.0
2,450.0
36,494.5
38,944.5
0.0
3,487.8
42,432.3
478,153.3
63,070.1
0.0
18,492.6
11,103.4
25,908.0
42,337.9
321,987.0
27,910.0
1,329.5
0.0
1,492.9
4,802.0
73,324.7
528,688.1
398,714.8
17,413.4
22,841.1
5,544.0
23,115.0
2,369.3
0.0
12,192.6
482,190.1
2,450.0
40,541.5
42,991.5
0.0
3,506.5
46,498.0
528,688.1
7
DBS Group
FYE 31 Dec
Key Ratios
Growth (%)
Net interest income
Non-interest income
Operating expenses
Core net profit
Gross loans
Customer deposits
Total assets
FY12A
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
9.5
15.1
9.4
13.2
12.5
8.3
12.5
3.6
5.4
9.3
8.4
5.7
4.2
17.9
15.3
13.9
10.8
2.0
8.6
6.5
5.3
8.0
9.5
8.4
17.2
2.7
9.4
13.7
21.3
9.0
11.2
9.7
19.0
13.5
10.1
22.4
26.1
10.0
12.0
10.6
Profitability (%)
Non-int. income/Total income
Average lending yields
Average cost of funds
Net interest margin
Cost/income
37.9
2.45
0.81
1.70
42.4
38.8
2.32
0.75
1.62
43.1
36.8
2.37
0.78
1.65
43.5
33.8
2.56
0.93
1.71
42.6
32.8
3.13
1.41
1.84
40.0
Liquidity (%)
Loans/customer deposits
83.1
85.0
83.9
82.2
80.8
1.3
1.3
0.2
141.8
1.2
1.2
0.3
135.1
0.9
0.9
0.3
150.6
0.8
0.8
0.3
173.9
0.8
0.8
0.3
175.9
14.0
14.0
17.1
13.7
13.7
16.3
13.1
13.1
15.8
13.1
13.1
15.6
13.2
13.2
15.5
11.0
1.0
9.0
10.7
0.9
8.3
10.6
0.9
8.3
11.9
1.0
8.1
13.7
1.1
8.1
Asset quality (%)
Net NPL
Gross NPL
(SP+GP)/average gross loans
Loan loss coverage
Capital adequacy (%)
CET1
Tier 1 capital
Risk-weighted capital
Returns (%)
ROAE
ROAA
Shareholders equity/assets
Source: Company; Maybank
October 31, 2014
8
DBS Group
Research Offices
REGIONAL
HONG KONG / CHINA
INDONESIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA
Regional Head of Institutional Research
(603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
Howard WONG Head of Research
(852) 2268 0648
[email protected]
• Oil & Gas - Regional
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• Strategy
ONG Seng Yeow
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(65) 6432 1453
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(852) 2268 0647
[email protected]
• Metals & Mining - Regional
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(62) 21 2557 1128
[email protected]
• Banking & Finance
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• Consumer Staples & Durables
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(62) 21 2953 0785
[email protected]
• Property
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(852) 2268 0638
[email protected]
ECONOMICS
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Chief Economist
Singapore | Malaysia
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[email protected]
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Philippines
(63) 2 849 8836
[email protected]
Tim LEELAHAPHAN
Thailand
Ka Leong LO, CFA
* Consumer Discretionary & Auto
Karen KWAN
• Property & REITs
Osbert TANG, CFA
(86) 21 5096 8370
[email protected]
• Transport & Industrials
Ricky WK NG, CFA
• Utilities & Renewable Energy
Steven ST CHAN
• Banking & Financials - Regional
JUNIMAN
Chief Economist, BII
Indonesia
(62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
[email protected]
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(852) 2268 0644
[email protected]
• Technology – Regional
MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research
• Strategy • Construction & Infrastructure
Jigar SHAH Head of Research
(91) 22 6632 2632
[email protected]
• Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
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(603) 2297 8680
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[email protected]
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ONG Chee Ting, CA
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(91) 22 6623 2607 [email protected]
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Mohshin AZIZ
• Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
YIN Shao Yang, CPA
• Gaming – Regional • Media
TAN Chi Wei, CFA
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INDIA
SINGAPORE
NG Wee Siang Head of Research
Gregory YAP
• SMID Caps – Regional
• Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA
• Property & REITs
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA
(65) 6231 5842
[email protected]
• Offshore & Marine
LEE Yen Ling
• Building Materials • Glove Producers
Derrick HENG
• Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)
CHAI Li Shin, CFA
• Plantation • Construction & Infrastructure
WEI Bin
• Commodity • Logistics • S-chips
Ivan YAP
• Automotive
John CHEONG
• Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare
LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist
(603) 2297 8694
[email protected]
TRUONG Thanh Hang
• Small & Mid Caps
Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research
October 31, 2014
Isnaputra ISKANDAR
(62) 21 2557 1129
[email protected]
• Metals & Mining • Cement
Pandu ANUGRAH
(62) 21 2557 1137
[email protected]
• Infrastructure • Construction • Transport
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(62) 21 2953 0784
[email protected]
• Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
PHILIPPINES
Luz LORENZO Head of Research
(63) 2 849 8836
[email protected]
• Strategy
• Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos
Lovell SARREAL
(63) 2 849 8841
[email protected]
• Consumer • Media • Cement
Rommel RODRIGO
(63) 2 849 8839
[email protected]
• Conglomerates • Property • Gaming
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(63) 2 849 8843
[email protected]
• Banks • Construction
Ramon ADVIENTO
(63) 2 849 8845
[email protected]
• Mining
THAILAND
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(66) 2658 6300 ext 1470
[email protected]
• Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1430
[email protected]
• Media • Commerce
Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1400
[email protected]
• Energy • Petrochem
Termporn TANTIVIVAT
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1520
[email protected]
• Property
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1404
[email protected]
• Transportation • Small cap
Chatchai JINDARAT
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1401
[email protected]
• Electronics
VIETNAM
LE Hong Lien, ACCA
Head of Institutional Research
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8181
[email protected]
• Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities
THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager,
Institutional Research
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8180
[email protected]
• Real Estate • Construction • Materials
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8082
[email protected]
• Oil & Gas
NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081
[email protected]
• Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep
(84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208
[email protected]
• Technology • Utilities • Construction
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
[email protected]
• Consumer / Materials
TRUONG Quang Binh
(84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087
[email protected]
• Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
[email protected]
• Financial Services
PHAM Nhat Bich
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083
[email protected]
• Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery
Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
[email protected]
• Real Estate
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi
(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084
[email protected]
• Port operation • Pharmaceutical
• Food & Beverage
Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
[email protected]
• Services Sector
Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research
(66) 2658 6300 ext 5090
[email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1440
[email protected]
• Strategy
Padon VANNARAT
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1450
[email protected]
• Strategy
9
DBS Group
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as
an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate
and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental
ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and
volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than
the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment
advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read
this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment
strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank
Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of
this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees
(collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this
report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”,
“intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might”
occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us
and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking
statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or
revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence
of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law,
from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit
business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other
investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent
permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published.
One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in
whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for
the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only
under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain
categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on
geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental
ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia
Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank
KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact
Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited
investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally
liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the
Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand
and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the
perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public
Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET.
MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
US
This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US
(registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in
the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US.
This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You
should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant
legislation and regulations.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services
Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any
responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as
constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
October 31, 2014
10
DBS Group
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa
Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and
distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng
Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg.
No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange
Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong
Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a
participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is
regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank
KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority.
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further
act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment
banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 31 October 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the
research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected
parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph
16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 31 October 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in
issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or
investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the
companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of
the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable
of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political
factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality
of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its
own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Ong Seng Yeow | Executive Director, Maybank Kim Eng Research
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY
Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD
Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL
Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
October 31, 2014
11
DBS Group
 Malaysia
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
(A Participating Organisation of
Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,
100 Jalan Tun Perak,
50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888;
Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,
No.1, Jalan Maarof
59000 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2297 8888
Fax: (603) 2282 5136
 Philippines
Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc.
17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza
Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue
Makati City, Philippines 1200
Tel: (63) 2 849 8888
Fax: (63) 2 848 5738
 Singapore
Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd
Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd
50 North Canal Road
Singapore 059304
Tel: (44) 20 7332 0221
Fax: (44) 20 7332 0302
 Hong Kong
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188
Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189
Tel: (91) 22 6623 2600
Fax: (91) 22 6623 2604
 Thailand
Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(Thailand) Public Company Limited
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
20th - 21st Floor,
Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,
Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Tanasak Krishnasreni
[email protected]
Tel: (66)2 658 6820
Indonesia
London
New York
India
Vietnam
Philippines
October 31, 2014
 Vietnam
Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited
4A-15+16 Floor Vincom Center Dong
Khoi, 72 Le Thanh Ton St. District 1
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tel : (84) 844 555 888
Fax : (84) 8 38 271 030
 Saudi Arabia
In association with
Anfaal Capital
Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah
Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz
Street P.O. Box 126575
Jeddah 21352
Tel: (966) 2 6068686
Fax: (966) 26068787
 North Asia Sales Trading
Thailand
Tel: (84) 44 555 888 x8079
 India
Tel: (852) 2268 0800
Fax: (852) 2877 0104
Rommel Jacob
[email protected]
Tel: (603) 2717 5152
[email protected]
Tel: (212) 688 8886
Fax: (212) 688 3500
Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd
2nd Floor, The International 16,
Maharishi Karve Road,
Churchgate Station,
Mumbai City - 400 020, India
Malaysia
Tien Nguyen
Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA
Inc
777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor
New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.
PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities
Plaza Bapindo
Citibank Tower 17th Floor
Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
Alex Tsun
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2268 0228
US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635
Andrew Dacey
[email protected]
Tel: (212) 688 2956
 Indonesia
 New York
Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd
Level 30,
Three Pacific Place,
1 Queen’s Road East,
Hong Kong
Kevin Foy
Regional Head Sales Trading
[email protected]
Tel: (65) 6336-5157
US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447
Harianto Liong
[email protected]
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1177
Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(London) Ltd
5th Floor, Aldermary House
10-15 Queen Street
London EC4N 1TX, UK
Tel: (65) 6336 9090
Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales)
Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)
 South Asia Sales Trading
 London
Simon Lovekin
[email protected]
Tel: (44)-207-626-2828
Manish Modi
[email protected]
Tel: (91)-22-6623-2601
Keith Roy
[email protected]
Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
www.maybank-ke.com | www.maybank-keresearch.com
12

DBS Group Hat trick iew

Transcription

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