Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories
Transcription
Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories
Regional Daily, 5 November 2014 5 Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories Islamic Capital Markets Strategy Pg3 At the Securities Commission’s (SC) forthcoming semi-annual review of Shariah-compliant securities, we have identified three stocks that we believe will be designated as non-compliant. They are IOI Corp, Perdana Petroleum and SapuraKencana. Analyst: Alexander Chia ([email protected]) Giken Sakata (GSS SP) Exploration & Production BUY SGD0.29 TP: SGD0.65 Mkt Cap : USD105m Pg4 Giken acquired 51% of Cepu Sakti Energy, transforming into an oil company focused on the old wells programme. Giken’s market cap only prices in two out of five fields and FY15F P/E is 3x. Analyst: Lee Yue Jer CFA ([email protected]) Dayang Enterprise (DEHB MK) Offshore & Marine BUY MYR2.94 TP: MYR4.52 Mkt Cap : USD777m Pg5 Dayang has placed out the first tranche of 52.1m shares from the 82.1m proposed placement. This raised MYR175.6m, which we believe will be used to buy more Perdana Petroleum, of which Dayang currently owns 26.6%. We trim our TP in light of the enlarged share base. Analyst: The Research Team ([email protected]) Hi-P International (HIP SP) Industrial - Misc. Manufacturer BUY SGD0.68 TP: SGD0.87 Mkt Cap : USD429m Pg6 Despite 3Q14 revenue falling 32.7% YoY to SGD246m from SGD365m. Hi-P recorded a 243.2% surge in NPAT YoY to SGD10.8m from SGD3.1m. Maintain BUY with a SGD0.87 TP (a 28% upside) as we believe a turnaround is firmly in place. Analyst: Jarick Seet ([email protected]) Pg7 Poor 9M14 Results Other Key Stories Indonesia Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ) Construction NEUTRAL IDR2,745 TP: IDR2,720 Analyst: Yualdo T. Yudoprawiro ([email protected]) Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ) Food & Beverage Products NEUTRAL IDR11,000 TP: IDR11,350 Pg8 Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ) Food & Beverage Products BUY IDR6,850 TP: IDR8,200 Pg9 Malaysia Alam Maritim (AMRB MK) Offshore & Marine NEUTRAL MYR1.07 TP: MYR1.12 Analyst: Andrey Wijaya ([email protected]) Expect Better 4Q14 Earnings Analyst: Andrey Wijaya ([email protected]) Pg10 Secures MYR31.7m Demobilisation Contract Analyst: Kong Ho Meng ([email protected]) Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) Transport - Aviation BUY MYR7.23 TP: MYR8.04 Pg11 Petronas Gas (PTG MK) Downstream Products Pg12 See important disclosures at the end of this report Higher ASP Boosts 3Q14 Earnings The Worst May Be Over Analyst: Ahmad Maghfur Usman ([email protected]) 9M14 Core Net Profit Grows 10.4% Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Regional Daily, 5 November 2014 Analyst: Joshua Ng ([email protected]) NEUTRAL MYR21.80 TP: MYR21.98 Thailand Advanced Info Services (ADVANC TB) Telecommunications NEUTRAL THB238 TP: THB249 See important disclosures at the end of this report Pg13 Boost from Lower Regulatory Cost Analyst: Veena Naidu ([email protected]) Powered by EFATM Platform 2 Strategy, 5 November 2014 Islamic Capital Markets Strategy Macro Shariah-Compliant Securities Semi-Annual Review Risks Growth Value 3 2 2 2 Shariah-compliant Top Picks TP (MYR) Tenaga Nasional 15.50 Unisem 2.16 Matrix Concepts 3.93 Cahya Mata Sarawak 5.00 Naim 5.06 The Securities Commission (SC) is expected to publish its semi-annual review of Shariah-compliant securities at the end of November. Of the 169 stocks under our coverage universe, 121 are currently designated as Shariah-compliant. We have identified three stocks that we believe will be designated as non-compliant in the coming review. They are IOI Corp, Perdana Petroleum and SapuraKencana Petroleum. Source: RHB Alexander Chia +603 9207 7621 [email protected] See important disclosures at the end of this report Stocks at risk of exclusion. After reviewing the 169 stocks under our coverage, we have identified 10 stocks (see Figure 1) that are currently Shariah-compliant and now fall afoul of the financial ratio hurdles based on their latest audited accounts. The Shariah Advisory Council (SAC) of the SC stipulates that on top of the business activity benchmarks, cash and debt should each not exceed 33% of total assets. We expect three stocks – IOI Corp (IOI MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR4.50), Perdana Petroleum (PETR MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.20) and SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK, BUY, TP: MYR5.33) – will be designated as noncompliant as they each have debt that exceeds 33% of their respective total assets. IOI Corp and SapuraKencana are component stocks in the benchmark FBMKLCI. Malaysia Airlines (MAS MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR0.27) also has nominal debt that exceeds the allowable threshold, we believe a portion of this is Islamic debt as the stock passed the May review. Malaysian Resources Corp’s (MRCB) (MRC MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.05) debt is 37% of total assets but management advises that stripping out Islamic debt, this ratio drops to only 29.3%. The remaining five stocks in Figure 1 have “excess” cash but are all expected to pass scrutiny as most of the cash holdings are parked in Islamic accounts. Investors in “Shariah-compliant securities” which are subsequently reclassified as “Shariah non-compliant” are required to dispose of the stocks within a month, unless the market price is below investment cost. Stocks that could be included in the Shariah-compliant list. We also identify four stocks, Esthetics International Group (EIG MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR1.35), Pantech Group (PGHB MK, BUY, TP: MYR1.25), SKP Resources (SKP MK, BUY, TP: MYR0.85) and Padini (PAD MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR2.03) that are currently not in the (May) list of compliant securities, but could be included in the coming review (see Figure 2) Shariah-compliance increases addressable market. For stocks that are Shariah-compliant, the addressable investor base is significantly larger with commensurate benefits to their share prices. According to data from the SC, domestic assets under management (AUM) at endSep 2014 amounted to MYR633bn, of which MYR263bn are invested domestically in equities and unit trust funds. Around 12.7% of this amount is invested in Shariah assets (see Figure 3). The addressable investor base grows exponentially larger if we include foreign portfolio investors such as sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East, such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority with AUM of about USD773bn. The growing AUM of Islamic funds and the diminishing quantum of Shariahcompliant stocks could give rise to a scarcity premium for these stocks. Top Picks. Our top stock picks in the Shariah-compliant space include Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB MK, BUY, TP: MYR15.50), Unisem (UNI MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.16), Matrix Concepts (MCH MK, BUY, TP: MYR3.93), Cahya Mata Sarawak (CMS MK, BUY, TP: MYR5.00) and Naim (NHB MK, BUY, TP: MYR5.06). We remain optimistic on the outlook for equities heading into the tail-end of 2014 and looking ahead Powered by EFATM Platform 3 Initiating Coverage, 5 November 2014 Giken Sakata (GSS SP) Buy Energy & Petrochemicals - Exploration & Production Market Cap: USD105m Target Price: Price: SGD0.65 SGD0.29 Macro Risks Old Is Beautiful Growth Value Giken Sakata (GSS SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 603 0.25 503 0.20 403 0.15 303 0.10 203 0.05 103 0.00 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 We initiate coverage on Giken with a BUY and a DCF-derived SGD0.65 . 0 TP, a 124% potential upside. Giken transformed itself into an 0 Indonesian onshore oil company with the 51% acquisition of CSE and is 0 focused on the old wells programme. We see production surging to 6,300bopd/14,400bopd in FY15/16F (Aug) from c.900bopd at present. Giken’s market cap only prices in two existing fields, with three new fields not valued yet. Sep-14 May-14 Jul-14 703 0.30 Mar-14 803 0.35 Jan-14 0.40 Nov-13 Vol m 0.45 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 1.12m/0.89m 986.2 124.1 0.03 - 0.39 74 473 Roots Capital Asia Ltd Java Petral Energy Pte Ltd 16.1 16.1 Share Performance (%) New oil company focused on old wells. Giken Sakata (Giken) owns 51% of Cepu Sakti Energy Pte Ltd (CSE), which has signed contracts for five oilfields under Indonesia’s old wells programme. The first two have proven and probable (2P) reserves and best estimate of contingent resources (2C) of 7.6m barrels of oil (mmbo) and 3.8mmbo respectively. We expect the next three fields to be larger. Superior economics yield NPV/barrel (bbl) of USD16.60/bbl, low oil price variability. The Old Wells Programme has a much simpler cash waterfall that results in an NPV/bbl of USD16.60/bbl vs USD7-10/bbl under production sharing contracts (PSCs). The oil is sold at a fixed price to Pertamina, ie there is almost no oil price risk. Business model is scalable at negligible cost, strong production ramp-up. CSE can secure new acreages at low cost, requiring only the signing of new contracts. Exploration risk is negligible, as the fields have produced before. It can even reach first oil in the year of contract signing, with no data acquisition costs. Drilling costs are also <20% of its peers. From c.900bbls of oil per day (bopd) currently, we expect 6,356bopd/14,336bopd in FY15/FY16F. Strong profitability and cashflow. CSE was already profitable in 1Q14, producing c.300bopd. With a strong production profile, we expect earnings and cash flows to surge. Giken is effectively trading at 3x FY15F P/E, with 1.1x EV/EBITDA. If management pays out 20% of earnings, the yield would be 5.8%/15.5% for FY15/16F respectively. Deeply undervalued even after price surge. Share prices have surged post acquisition, but market clearly values only two out of its five fields. Our SGD0.65 valuation is based on a DCF of the five fields, which can still grow as it continues to sign more old wells acreage in the Cepu area. Key risks: Operational delay which may defer production growth; Short track record for CSE; Portfolio concentration. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 391.4 (9.5) (19.7) 3.6 418.2 Forecasts and Valuations Relative 389.3 (8.2) (16.1) 4.5 418.1 Total turnover (SGDm) Shariah compliant Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15F 90 127 69 126 285 Reported net profit (SGDm) 0.4 0.5 2.1 32.6 87.1 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 0.4 Recurring net profit growth (%) na Aug-16F 0.5 2.1 32.6 87.1 24.0 357.1 1486.8 166.7 Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.22 DPS (SGD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 103 83 37 3 1 P/B (x) 4.87 4.47 5.88 1.90 0.90 Singapore Research +65 6533 0781 P/CF (x) 13.2 12.9 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lee Yue Jer, CFA +65 6232 3898 [email protected] Recurring P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) na 1.5 0.7 5.8 15.5 15.5 17.3 20.0 1.1 0.2 Return on average equity (%) 4.9 5.6 17.4 75.9 78.9 Net debt to equity (%) 2.1 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 Source: Company, RHB net cash net cash net cash 0.0 Powered by EFATM Platform net cash 0.0 4 Company Update, 5 November 2014 Dayang Enterprise (DEHB MK) Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Offshore & Marine Market Cap: USD777m Target Price: Price: MYR4.52 MYR2.94 Macro Risks Slowly Increasing Stake In Perdana Petroleum Growth Value Dayang Enterprise (DEHB MK) Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 4.00 110 3.80 105 3.60 100 3.40 95 3.20 90 3.00 85 2.80 80 2.60 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 75 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 3.67m/1.14m 49.3 53.7 2.75 - 3.86 29 877 Naim Cendera Holdings Ling Suk Kiong Ahmad Shahruddin 30.9 9.3 8.0 First tranche of placement. The first tranche of the private placement proposed by Dayang Enterprise (Dayang) was completed on 1 Oct for 52.1m shares. The initial proposal was to place out 82.5m shares, which is 10% of the fully paid-up capital as of 3 Sep 2014 – the date of the proposal. Note that the placement price was also set at MYR3.37 instead of the initial MYR3.69. The first tranche has raised MYR175.6m. Proceeds utilisation. In our 11 Sep 2014 report – Dayang Enterprise : 3 Possible Ways To Use Placement Proceeds, we highlighted three possible scenarios that Dayang could utilise its proceeds: i) accumulate more shares of Perdana Petroleum (Perdana) (PETR MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.20), ii) ramp up capacity for engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) jobs, and iii) purchase deepwater-capable marine assets. Dayang has been slowly accumulating Perdana’s shares during the recent market selldown and currently owns 26.6% of Perdana’s shares. On the EPCC bids, we gather from our channel checks that Dayang has been bidding and preparing for an EPCC job related to an enhanced oil recovery off the coast of Sarawak. Maintain BUY with a lower TP of MYR4.52. In light of the enlarged share base and a larger stake in Perdana, we update our model and take the opportunity to lower our TP to MYR4.52 (from MYR4.80), based on a 16x FY15F P/E. We lift our earnings forecast marginally and reiterate BUY on Dayang, which is a local premier oil and gas service provider with an excellent track record, in our view. Share Performance (%) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F 382 401 553 938 1,104 Reported net profit (MYRm) 83 101 149 212 252 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 83 101 120 212 252 Recurring net profit growth (%) 22.7 21.8 19.0 76.2 18.5 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.26 0.31 DPS (MYR) 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.15 The Research Team +603 9207 7680 Recurring P/E (x) 29.2 24.0 20.1 11.4 9.6 [email protected] P/B (x) 4.64 4.06 3.64 2.48 2.20 P/CF (x) 24.4 24.8 15.6 15.4 10.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 4.4 5.2 YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (23.8) (12.8) (22.2) (20.1) (20.0) Relative (23.2) (13.6) (21.8) (19.3) (22.5) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (MYRm) Kong Ho Meng +603 9207 7620 Dividend Yield (%) [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 13.2 9.9 6.9 5.9 Return on average equity (%) 18.6 18.1 23.6 25.8 24.2 3.1 net cash Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash 1.3 net cash 5.2 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 Dayang has placed out the first tranche of 52.1m shares from the 82.1m . 0 proposed private placement. It has raised MYR175.6m proceeds, which 0 we believe will be used to buy more Perdana’s shares. Dayang currently 0 owns 26.6% of Perdana’s shares, given the recent share price weakness. We trim our TP to MYR4.52 from MYR4.80 (a 53.7% upside) in light of the enlarged share base and a larger stake in Perdana. BUY. Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Powered by EFATM Platform 5 Results Review, 5 November 2014 Hi-P International (HIP SP) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Misc. Manufacturer Market Cap: USD429m Target Price: Price: SGD0.87 SGD0.68 Macro Risks 2H14 Turnaround Firmly In Place Growth Value Hi-P International (HIP SP) Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) 0.80 127 0.75 120 0.70 112 0.65 105 0.60 97 0.55 90 0.50 3 82 2 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 1 Source: Bloomberg 0.32m/0.25m 25.0 28.0 0.53 - 0.78 10 818 Yao Hsiao Tung Molex Incorporate Hi-P International 60.2 21.8 8.4 9M14 net loss narrowed to SGD4.5m. Even though 3Q14 revenue fell 32.7% YoY to SGD246m from SGD365m due to decreased sales volume from two key customers, which we suspect to be Blackberry (BB CN, NR) and Motorola (MSI US, NR), this did not stop Hi-P from making a spectacular comeback in 3Q14, recording a 243.2% YoY surge in NPAT to SGD10.8m due to an increase in production yields. 9M14 net loss narrowed to SGD4.5m from SGD15.3m. Gross margin increased to 9.4% in 3Q14 from 6.5% in 3Q13 due to a positive shift from plastic to metal components for the wireless segment. Total selling & distribution and administrative expenses decreased 23.4% YoY to SGD17.5m, mainly due to the reversal of warranty provision of SGD2.7m, in view of the expiry of the warranty period. New projects in the pipeline. With the ramping up of Xiaomi, we expect production yield to reach 60% by the end of FY14, above the estimated 50% breakeven limit, which should contribute significantly to 4Q14 earnings. Going forward, we expect its metal case production to be split evenly between Hi-P and Foxconn (2354 TT, NR), on account of successful ramp-up in 4Q14. New projects involving tablets, computers, medical equipment and coffee machines could further drive growth. Turnaround firmly in place. Going forward, Jarick Seet will assume coverage of Hi-P. With management guidance in line and its strong 3Q14 performance, we believe that a 2H14 turnaround is firmly in place and reinstate our bullish stance on a record 4Q14. We lower our FY14F revenue by 3.5% to SGD1.14bn but maintain our FY14 NPAT estimate of SGD12.3m. This is because we are expecting further shifts in product mix from plastic to metal components, driven by the ramp up of Xiaomi’s metal casing as well as other new projects. Maintain BUY with its TP unchanged at SGD0.87, based on a 1.2x peer average FY14 P/BV. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Forecasts and Valuations Absolute 15.4 (6.9) (2.2) 18.4 10.7 Total turnover (SGDm) Relative 11.5 (8.1) (1.4) 17.2 8.0 Shariah compliant Jarick Seet +65 6232 3891 [email protected] Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F 1,204 1,167 1,262 1,099 1,387 Reported net profit (SGDm) 45.0 17.9 6.4 12.3 40.1 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 45.0 17.9 6.4 12.3 40.1 (33.1) (60.1) (64.4) 91.9 226.8 Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.05 DPS (SGD) 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 Recurring P/E (x) 12.4 31.1 87.1 45.4 13.9 P/B (x) 0.94 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.93 P/CF (x) 5.49 6.74 3.57 4.18 Recurring net profit growth (%) Terence Wong CFA +65 6232 3896 Dividend Yield (%) [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) na 3.6 1.8 3.0 3.0 5.9 2.91 5.87 5.25 4.44 3.22 7.7 3.1 1.1 2.1 6.7 net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (7.1) 21.4 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 0 Despite 3Q14 revenue falling 32.7% YoY to SGD246m from SGD365m on . 0 lower sales volume, Hi-P recorded a 243.2% surge in NPAT YoY to 0 SGD10.8m from SGD3.1m due to a change in product mix, cost control 0 and reversal of warranty provision. Maintain BUY with a SGD0.87 TP (a 28% upside) as we believe a turnaround is firmly in place. YTD net loss narrowed significantly to SGD4.5m from SGD15.3m. We expect Hi-P to further outperform in 4Q14 with Xiaomi playing a major role. 2 Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Powered by EFATM Platform 6 Results Review, 4 November 2014 Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ) Neutral (from Buy) Construction & Engineering - Construction Market Cap: USD409m Target Price: Price: IDR2,720 IDR2,745 Macro Risks Poor 9M14 Results Growth Value Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ) Price Close Relative to Jakarta Composite Index (RHS) 3,700 173 3,200 153 2,700 133 2,200 113 1,700 93 1,200 140 73 0 0 . 2 0 0 Adhi Karya’s 9M14 earnings plunged 44% YoY to IDR101bn while its . 0 revenue slid 8% YoY to IDR5.19trn, below our expectations. Downgrade 0 to NEUTRAL (from Buy) with a lower IDR2,720 TP, implying a 0.9% 0 downside and 17.4x FY15F P/E. We cut our FY14/FY15 earnings projections by 43%/48% to reflect the poor results and to tone down our previously over-aggressive stance on the company. 120 100 80 60 Below expectations. Adhi Karya’s 9M14 revenue and earnings only made up 45%/47% and 23%/24% respectively of our/consensus full-year projections. Over the past three years, its Jan-Sep revenue and earnings averaged at 50% and 34% respectively of full-year numbers. 9M14 new contracts dropped 29% YoY to IDR4.9trn. This indicates that the company only achieved an additional IDR400bn in new contracts in 3Q14. Total new contracts YTD only represented 32.7% of 2014 target, vs the average of 74% for new contracts won in Jan-Sep over the last three years. Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Vol m 40 20 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (IDR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Republic of Indonesia 37,047m/3.11m 24.9 -0.9 1,430 - 3,380 49 1,801 51.0 Share Performance (%) 3Q14 revenue declined sharply YoY. Due to lower contracts achievement, Adhi Karya’s 3Q14 revenue declined 14% YoY. This, coupled with other factors such as lower profit from joint operations, higher opex and interest expenses (helped slightly by a forex gain), caused 3Q14 net income to fall 63% YoY to IDR41bn (see Figure 1). Slash new contract projections. We cut our FY14/FY15 new contract projections to IDR7trn/IDR10.5trn (from IDR15trn/IDR20trn) to reflect lower contracts achievement YTD as well as to tone down our previously over-aggressive stance on the company. Our new FY14/FY15 total orderbook forecasts are IDR15.7trn/IDR17.8trn respectively. Downgrade to NEUTRAL (from Buy). Following changes in our new contract projections, we lower our FY14/FY15 earnings estimates by 43%/48%. Therefore, our TP is reduced to IDR2,720 (from IDR3,745), based on a 17.4x FY15F P/E. Forecasts and Valuations YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 81.8 (0.7) (11.7) (8.1) 33.9 Relative 62.7 0.2 (11.7) (13.3) 22.7 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 7,628 9,800 7,230 8,315 9,703 Reported net profit (IDRbn) 209 406 251 281 340 Recurring net profit (IDRbn) 209 406 251 281 340 14.6 93.8 (38.1) 12.0 21.0 Total turnover (IDRbn) Recurring net profit growth (%) Shariah compliant 116 225 139 156 189 DPS (IDR) 32.6 23.5 14.5 16.3 19.7 Yualdo T.Yudoprawiro +6221 2598 6888 Recurring P/E (x) 23.6 12.2 19.7 17.6 14.5 [email protected] P/B (x) 4.24 3.24 3.03 2.70 2.38 P/CF (x) 12.9 6.4 5.4 3.8 4.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 5.28 4.49 3.66 2.45 0.96 19.5 30.1 15.9 16.2 17.4 Agus Pramono, CFA +6221 2598 6765 [email protected] Recurring EPS (IDR) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (45.2) (50.3) (53.0) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 3 0 . 2 Powered by EFATM Platform 7 Results Review, 4 November 2014 Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ) Neutral (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Food & Beverage Products Market Cap: USD5,307m Target Price: Price: IDR11,350 IDR11,000 Macro Risks Higher ASP Boosts 3Q14 Earnings Growth Value Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ) Relative to Jakarta Composite Index (RHS) 12,000 112 11,500 104 11,000 96 10,500 88 10,000 80 0 0 . 2 0 0 Indofood’s 9M14 earnings came in at IDR2.1trn (+11.6% YoY), in line . 0 with our expectations but above street estimates. 3Q14 earnings rose 0 12.7% QoQ to IDR732bn, driven by a higher ASP which boosted its EBIT 0 margin and lowered sales volume. The higher 3Q14 EBIT for noodles was partially offset by lower EBITs for dairy and beverage products. Maintain NEUTRAL with IDR11,350 TP (3.2% upside), based on a 21.5x FY15 P/E. As expected. Indofood CBP’s (Indofood) 9M14 earnings rose 11.6% YoY to IDR2.1trn, in line with our expectations but higher than consensus forecasts, making up 76%/79% of our/consensus full-year estimates. On a quarterly basis, 3Q14 earnings increased 12.7% QoQ to IDR732bn, driven by a higher average selling price (ASP) which boosted its EBIT margin. In addition, interest income surged 136% QoQ to IDR129bn. It is worth noting that during the quarter, sales volumes for almost all Indofood’s consumer branded products declined, except beverage products, which recorded flat quarterly sales volume. This indicates that the room for raising selling prices is limited, going forward. Higher ASP boosts EBIT for noodles. 3Q14 EBIT for noodles – which accounted for 85% of Indofood’s consolidated EBIT – increased 11.4% QoQ to IDR828bn. Anticipating a subsidised fuel price hike, the company further increased its noodles ASP by 4.1% QoQ to IDR1,625/pack in 3Q14 (total ASP rose 17% YoY in 9M14). As a result, its EBIT margin for noodles improved to 16.8% in 3Q14 from 14.6% in 2Q14. However, its 3Q14 sales volume declined to 3.04bn packs in 3Q14 (-6.7% QoQ). Lower EBITs for dairy and beverage. Dairy EBIT – which accounted for 7% of 9M14 total EBIT – declined 8.3% QoQ to IDR82bn, weighed down by a lower sales volume of 68,100 tonnes (-32% QoQ). Beverages booked an operating loss of IDR113bn in 3Q14, up 123% QoQ from a loss of IDR51bn in 2Q14, caused by higher advertising and promotion expenses. Indofood said its ready-to-drink (RTD) green tea Ichi Ocha brand – which just launched in end-2013 – is now among the top-three green tea brands with an 8% market share, thanks to its strong distribution channels. Indofood targets its beverage division to begin booking profit in 2016. Sep-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 72 Jan-14 9,500 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (IDR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Indofood Sukses Makmur 28,354m/2.38m -1.0 3.2 9,700 - 11,600 19 5,831 80.5 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 7.8 (3.1) 5.3 10.0 (0.5) Relative (10.6) (1.6) 5.9 5.5 (11.1) Shariah compliant 2 . 2 0 . 1 Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (IDRbn) 19,367 21,575 25,095 27,524 29,999 Reported net profit (IDRbn) 4,367 2,180 2,223 2,736 3,084 Recurring net profit (IDRbn) 4,279 2,177 2,195 2,721 3,062 Recurring net profit growth (%) 156.5 (49.1) 0.8 23.9 12.5 Recurring EPS (IDR) 734 373 376 467 525 DPS (IDR) 123 25 25 31 35 Andrey Wijaya +6221 2598 6888 Recurring P/E (x) 15.0 29.5 29.2 23.6 20.9 [email protected] P/B (x) 6.28 5.62 5.10 4.24 3.56 P/CF (x) 14.1 23.1 27.9 21.6 18.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 12.2 21.6 21.0 15.4 13.2 45.6 20.2 18.5 19.7 18.6 Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash 9.9 5.5 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 8 Results Review, 5 November 2014 Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Food & Beverage Products Market Cap: USD4,967m Target Price: Price: IDR8,200 IDR6,850 Macro Risks Expect Better 4Q14 Earnings Growth Value Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ) Relative to Jakarta Composite Index (RHS) 117 7,700 113 7,500 109 7,300 105 7,100 101 6,900 98 6,700 94 6,500 90 6,300 86 6,100 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 82 0 0 . 1 0 0 Indofood Sukses’ 9M14 earnings jumped 58% YoY to IDR3trn, driven by . 0 higher agribusiness and Minzhong’s earnings, in line with our/street 0 estimates. 3Q14 earnings slipped 14% QoQ to IDR764bn as expected, 0 weighed by slower earnings from agribusiness on lower CPO prices. Higher Minzhong and Bogasari’s earnings could be a potential earnings growth catalyst. Maintain BUY and IDR8,200 TP (a 20% upside), based on a 13.8x FY15F P/E. Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close 7,900 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (IDR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 55,167m/4.63m 18.2 19.7 6,250 - 7,750 50 8,780 CAB Holdings Ltd 50.1 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 3.8 1.1 (3.2) (2.8) 5.4 Relative (15.3) (1.7) (3.2) (8.0) (9.4) A weaker quarter as expected. Indofood Sukses Makmur’s (Indofood Sukses) 9M14 earnings surged 58% YoY to IDR3.0trn, driven by higher earnings from agribusiness and Minzhong (MINZ SP, NR), in line with expectations at 69%/71% of our/consensus full-year estimates. On a quarterly basis, 3Q14 earnings slipped 14% QoQ to IDR764bn as expected, weighed by slower agribusiness earnings, as crude palm oil (CPO) prices declined to USD706/tonne in September from USD842/tonne in July. Note that CPO prices have recovered to USD750/tonne in October. Expect higher sales volume from Bogasari. Going forward, we see sales volume from Bogasari Flour Mills (Bogasari) may increase, after the company cut flour average sales price (ASP) by 2% in August, and a further 2% in September, driven by lower raw material wheat price which declined 8.6% QoQ to USD6.80/bushel. Despite the ASP cut, we expect EBIT margin to improve since there is a time lag for lower wheat prices to lift EBIT margin due to a 3-6 month raw material inventory holding period. In 3Q14, lower flour sales volume and narrower EBIT margin caused Bogasari’s EBIT to sink 52% QoQ to IDR229bn. Minzhong’s earnings may improve. Indofood Sukses maintained Minzhong’s FY14 sales target of IDR6trn and guided for EBIT margin of 21-22%, despite 9M14 revenue and EBIT margin of merely IDR3.5trn and 20.9% respectively. This indicates that the company expects Minzhong’s 4Q14 sales to reach IDR2.5trn (41% of FY14 sales) and EBIT margin to improve, which could significantly boost earnings. Maintain BUY. We reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of IDR8,200 (a 20% upside), based on a 13.8x FY15F P/E. Indofood Sukses is trading at ~40% discount to its subsidiary Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR11,350). Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (IDRbn) 45,332 50,059 57,732 65,971 70,111 Reported net profit (IDRbn) 3,077 3,261 2,502 4,403 5,219 Recurring net profit (IDRbn) 2,975 3,191 1,957 4,583 5,398 (8.3) 7.3 (38.7) 134.1 17.8 Recurring EPS (IDR) 339 363 223 522 615 DPS (IDR) 132 138 146 112 197 Recurring net profit growth (%) Shariah compliant 2 . 2 0 . 2 Andrey Wijaya (6221) 2598 6888 Recurring P/E (x) 20.2 18.8 30.7 13.1 11.1 [email protected] P/B (x) 3.10 2.84 2.54 2.21 1.95 P/CF (x) 16.1 11.5 25.2 10.0 8.4 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 12.5 14.3 8.5 7.7 Return on average equity (%) 17.0 16.1 11.2 17.3 17.9 0.2 4.2 25.0 6.9 2.4 0.6 (4.3) Dividend Yield (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 9 Corporate News Flash, 4 November 2014 Alam Maritim (AMRB MK) Neutral (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Offshore & Marine Market Cap: USD298m Target Price: Price: MYR1.12 MYR1.07 Macro Risks Secures MYR31.7m Demobilisation Contract Growth Value Alam Maritim (AMRB MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 1.70 103 1.60 97 1.50 92 1.40 86 1.30 81 1.20 75 1.10 69 1.00 64 0.90 35 58 0 0 . 2 0 0 Alam Maritim has received a USD9.56m (MYR31.7m) letter of award . 0 (LOA) to demobilise a floating storage facility. Maintain NEUTRAL, with 0 our TP trimmed to MYR1.12 (from MYR1.35), implying a 4.7% upside. 0 Although this LOA and a possible short-term contract for 1MAS-300 are positive surprises to us, we believe they are insufficient to lift the stock’s sentiment amid the current cautious outlook. 30 25 20 15 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 5 Nov-13 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) SAR Venture Holdings (M) SB Lembaga Tabung Haji Caprice Capital International 2.20m/0.68m 42.1 4.7 0.99 - 1.65 39 924 35.7 8.6 7.3 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (31.9) (13.0) (31.4) (32.3) (32.7) Relative (31.3) (13.8) (31.0) (31.5) (35.2) USD9.56m (MYR31.7m) demobilisation job. Alam Maritim is undertaking a short-term contract to demobilise a floating storage facility for a local oil and gas (O&G) services firm. The company commenced work on 6 Oct and expects to complete all works by 15 Nov. Our view. Although no further details are given, we believe this contract is in line with a similar decommissioning contract carried out by IEV (IEV SP, NR) for M3nergy’s Perintis floating, production, offloading and storage (FPSO) located offshore Terengganu. The USD15m (MYR50m) contract was carried out from Jan-Mar 2014. IEV carried out the project’s engineering capabilities with vessels from a partner, EMAS-AMC Pte Ltd. Based on this example, we expect Alam Maritim to perform the engineering phase of the work via a 50% joint-venture with subsidiary Alam Swiber Offshore SB. Similarly, we understand that it may likely rely on third-party vessels rather than its own for the job. Although the profit contribution falls under the subsidiary, we expect ~10% bottomline margins to the group given that demobilisation is among Alam Swiber’s offshore, installation and construction (OIC) works capabilities. Forecast changes. We raise our FY14F EPS by 5% to account for the two positive surprises as: i) we did not factor in the demobilisation job earlier (we assumed Alam Swiber would remain idle for the rest of 2014), and ii) we understand that its 1MAS-300 pipelay barge (assumed idle previously) is likely operating on a short-term accommodation contract. Maintain NEUTRAL, TP reduced to MYR1.12 (from MYR1.35). We keep our NEUTRAL call but lower our TP to MYR1.12 as we trim our P/E assumption to 12x (from 14x) given the sector-wide de-rating amid a more cautious O&G sector outlook and lack of contract news flow. Based on Alam Maritim’s 2013 annual report, 31 out of its 44 vessels are on long-term charters, implying that 30% of its current fleet are susceptible to uncertainties in garnering favourable charter rates upon contract renewal. Further risks include partnership risk, execution risk and weaker offshore support vessel (OSV) margins. Forecasts and Valuations Shariah compliant Total turnover (MYRm) Reported net profit (MYRm) Kong Ho Meng +603 9207 7620 [email protected] Recurring net profit (MYRm) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F 502 447 511 528 Dec-16F 565 58.3 74.3 76.9 86.7 92.6 93.6 60.4 73.6 76.9 86.7 101.4 21.8 4.5 12.7 8.0 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 Recurring P/E (x) 16.4 13.4 12.9 11.4 10.6 P/B (x) 1.88 1.63 1.45 1.28 1.15 P/CF (x) 10.2 25.4 7.3 7.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.9 12.0 9.9 8.6 7.7 Return on average equity (%) 11.7 13.1 11.9 11.9 11.3 Net debt to equity (%) 83.8 70.4 Recurring net profit growth (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 1 0 . 1 Source: Company data, RHB na 71.6 60.5 45.6 (16.8) (23.8) (23.9) Powered by EFATM Platform 10 Results Review, 3 November 2014 Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) Transport - Aviation Market Cap: USD2,994m Buy (Maintained) Target Price: Price: MYR8.04 MYR7.23 Macro Risks The Worst May Be Over Growth Value Malaysian Airports (MAHB MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 10.10 118 9.60 112 9.10 107 8.60 101 8.10 96 7.60 90 7.10 84 6.60 79 6.10 25 73 0 0 . 2 0 0 3QFY14 core losses reduced QoQ to MYR2.7m from MYR25.5m. . 0 Maintain BUY with lower MYR8.04 TP (11% upside). We deem this in line 0 with our expectation as 4Q could be soft in view of the anticipated flight 0 cancellations in the peak season post MH17 and MH370. The worst may be nearing its tail end as FY15 earnings growth for domestic operations could be robust on KLIA 2’s full-year contribution. 20 15 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 5 Nov-13 Vol m 10 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Khazanah Nasional Permodalan Nasional Employees Provident Fund 7.77m/2.41m 15.2 11.2 6.46 - 9.78 33 1,374 36.6 13.0 11.3 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (19.7) (1.9) (3.6) (10.6) (13.9) Relative (19.1) (2.7) (3.2) (9.8) (16.4) 2 . 2 0 . 2 Reduced losses but still below consensus estimates. Malaysia Airports (MAHB) reported MYR2.7m core net loss in 3QFY14, better than the MYR25.5m loss in the previous quarter. 9MFY14 cumulative core earnings were MYR103m, down from MYR289.2m last year. At the same time, MAHB’s share of losses from Sabiha Gokcen Airport (ISG) reduced drastically QoQ to MYR2.8m from MYR8.3m. ISG is on track to meet management’s loss guidance of EUR20m this year. Earnings are within our estimates, so far albeit much lower than consensus’. Passenger spending weakness sets in. Due to slower-than-expected opening of the remaining outlets (only 87.5% of the outlet space is opened), MAHB saw softer rental collections. More importantly, the drop in tourists since the MH370 and MH17 incidents has taken a toll on overall passenger spending, down 5.3% YoY for 9MFY14. Forecasts. We trim earnings for FY14/FY15/FY16 by 8%/52%/22% after factoring in ISG’s expected losses to our bottomline, absent in our previous earnings forecast, although we have valued it separately for valuation purposes. Our earnings for MAHB’s Malaysia operations in FY14/15/16 are reduced by only 0.1%/15%/13% after factoring in lower passenger growth, which we trim to 4%/6%/5% from 8%/7%/7%. Outlook. 4Q14 is likely to be a softer quarter due to flight cancellations in the peak travel season following the MH370 and MH17 tragedies. However, MAHB should see more outlet openings, though rental collections may not ramp up as fast. However, expectations of a full-year earnings contribution next year from its retail segment, coupled with the recovery in passenger spending, will likely give a boost to earnings, where we expect FY15 to grow by 60% for its Malaysian operations. Cutting TP but maintain BUY. Despite cutting our earnings forecast, we remain positive on MAHB’s outlook as the worst may be over. We trim our DCF-(WACC: 7.5%) derived TP to MYR8.04 from MYR8.51. Financing option for the remaining 40% of ISG will be known by year end. At a bear-case scenario, assuming 100% rights issuance at a 25% discount, it will see our FV adjusted lower to MYR7.78. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 2,163 2,463 2,769 3,077 3,265 Reported net profit (MYRm) 331 306 36 79 138 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 402 331 82 79 138 Ahmad Maghfur Usman 603 9207 7654 Recurring net profit growth (%) 1.5 (17.8) (75.2) (3.1) 74.0 [email protected] Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.33 0.27 0.06 0.06 0.10 DPS (MYR) 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.14 22 27 121 125 72 P/B (x) 2.01 1.90 1.79 1.83 1.84 P/CF (x) 13.5 10.0 10.3 10.5 11.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 13.1 15.3 15.5 12.5 12.0 Total turnover (MYRm) Shariah compliant Recurring P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 8.4 6.8 0.7 1.4 2.6 57.4 77.9 63.7 60.5 58.2 (49.1) (67.0) (60.4) Powered by EFATM Platform 11 Results Review, 5 November 2014 Petronas Gas (PTG MK) Neutral (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Downstream Products Market Cap: USD13,001m Target Price: Price: MYR21.98 MYR21.80 Macro Risks 9M14 Core Net Profit Grows 10.4% Growth Value Petronas Gas (PTG MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 26.0 101 25.0 98 24.0 95 23.0 92 22.0 89 21.0 86 20.0 7 83 0 0 . 2 0 0 Petronas Gas’ 9M14 results met expectations. We maintain our . 0 NEUTRAL call, forecasts and TP of MYR21.98 (a 0.8% upside). We 0 believe the market has priced in near-term earnings catalysts of 0 Petronas Gas, ie contributions from a new power plant in Sabah and a regasification terminal in Melaka. However, its long-term outlook remains favourable, backed by rising demand for gas. 6 5 4 3 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 2 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 30.4m/9.31m -13.3 0.8 21.1 - 24.9 21 1,979 Petroliam Nasional EPF Kumpulan Wang Persaraan 60.7 13.7 5.3 2 . 1 0 . 1 Regasification drives earnings growth. Petronas Gas’ 9M14 core net profit of MYR1,270m came in within expectations at 76%/72% of our/consensus full-year estimates respectively. 9M14 core net profit grew 10.4% YoY, driven by: i) a 9-month contribution from a new regasification plant in Melaka (vis-à-vis only a 3-month contribution in FY13), ii) increased gas transportation volumes, iii) a higher electricity tariff from Jan 2014, and iv) maiden contribution from the 60%-owned 300MW Kimanis Power Plant (KPP). This was partially offset by lower gas processing profits. All three KPP units scheduled to be online by year-end. KPP’s first and second-generation units already commenced commercial operations in May and Jul 2014 respectively. We expect the third and last unit to go online as well before the year is out. Forecasts. We maintain our forecasts. Risks: i) falling short of efficiency targets, which could hurt performancebased incomes, ii) lower gas transportation volumes, and iii) delays in the commissioning of KPP’s third generation unit. Maintain NEUTRAL. We believe the market has priced in near-term earnings catalysts of Petronas Gas, ie contributions from the new 300MW KPP in Sabah and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal in Sg Udang, Melaka. However, its long-term outlook remains favourable, backed by continued industrialisation in Malaysia, and hence rising demand for gas. We maintain our SOP-based TP of MYR21.98 (see Figure 4). Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (10.2) (4.6) (2.7) (8.0) (10.3) Relative (9.6) (5.4) (1.6) (7.2) (12.9) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover (MYRm) 3,577 3,892 4,101 4,240 4,382 Reported net profit (MYRm) 1,405 1,453 1,673 1,785 1,908 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 1,405 1,453 1,673 1,785 1,908 Recurring net profit growth (%) 434.1 3.4 15.2 6.6 6.9 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.71 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.96 DPS (MYR) 0.40 0.50 0.62 0.63 0.67 Recurring P/E (x) 30.7 29.7 25.8 24.2 22.6 P/B (x) 4.71 4.20 4.17 4.01 3.87 P/CF (x) 22.3 20.8 26.3 14.6 12.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 22.9 22.6 23.4 22.6 21.5 15.9 15.0 16.2 16.9 17.4 Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Joshua Ng +603 9207 7606 [email protected] Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (5.0) (3.0) 1.5 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 12 Results Review, 4 November 2014 Advanced Info Services (ADVANC TB) Communications - Telecommunications Market Cap: USD21,675m Neutral (Maintained) Target Price: Price: THB249.00 THB238.00 Macro Risks Boost from Lower Regulatory Cost Growth Value Advanced Info Services (ADVANC TB) Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 250 101 240 96 230 91 220 86 210 81 200 76 190 71 180 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 66 Core 9MFY14 earnings declined 2% YoY to THB26.91bn, mainly due to continuing weak voice revenue, higher depreciation and stiff 3G competition. We keep our NEUTRAL call on concerns over spectrum risks but raise DCF-based TP to THB249.00 (4.6% upside) following the 5.6%/2.2% upgrade to FY14/15F earnings from the faster-than-expected decline in regulatory cost and improving consumer sentiment. Sep-14 Jul-14 Mar-14 May-14 106 Jan-14 260 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Intouch Holdings SingTel 1,218m/37.8m 5.0 4.6 187 - 247 51 2,973 42.5 21.3 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m 19.3 6.3 13.9 (2.9) (4.8) 2 . 2 0 . 2 In line. Advanced Info Services (AIS) posted a commendable 5.7% QoQ and 7.4% YoY rise in 3Q14 core earnings- in line with our full year forecast, at 75% but slightly below consensus estimates at 73%. The better earnings momentum came from lower-than-expected regulatory fee (-15% QoQ) and the 19.4% QoQ drop in marketing expenses from seasonality. Robust 3G device and subs migration. 9M14’s service revenue (excluding interconnection revenue) ticked up a marginal 0.5% YoY, supported by strong non-voice growth (+32% YoY) which offset the 13.6% YoY decline in voice revenue. Its EBITDA margin improved 1.9ppts YoY to 45% from lower interconnection (IC) and regulatory fees. The strong demand for AIS’ house branded smartphones (Lava), accelerated 3G subs to 88% of its total subs (from 80% in 2Q14) with 49% of 3G subs on a smartphone, ahead of the 45% target by end-2014. Forecasts and risks. Management reaffirmed its FY14 service revenue growth guidance of 1-2% and EBITDA margin of 45%. While we expect competition to remain intense going into FY15, we foresee a further improvement in revenue and earnings momentum on the back of a rebound in consumer confidence. We raise our core earnings forecasts for FY14 and FY15 by 5.6% and 2.2% respectively, mainly to factor in the stronger regulatory cost savings. This more than offsets the higher marketing cost and weaker topline growth. Spectrum overhang. AIS remains a NEUTRAL due to spectrum related risks and intense 3G competition in the market. That said, the underperformance of the telecoms sector relative to the SET is likely to see some interest returning, with investors gravitating towards more defensive plays amidst the external market volatility. We prefer DTAC (DTAC TB, BUY, TP: THB138), given its stronger upside. Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F 126,437 141,568 145,833 143,830 148,299 Reported net profit (THBm) 22,218 34,883 36,274 37,767 41,589 Recurring net profit (THBm) 26,600 34,883 36,274 37,767 41,589 20.3 31.1 4.0 4.1 10.1 Recurring EPS (THB) 9.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 14.0 Veena Naidu License No. 24418, 66 2862 9752 DPS (THB) 8.4 10.9 12.1 12.7 14.0 [email protected] Recurring P/E (x) 26.6 20.3 19.5 18.7 17.0 P/B (x) 18.0 16.3 15.5 14.9 14.3 Jeffrey Tan +603 9207 7633 P/CF (x) 15.0 13.9 13.9 13.2 11.9 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.1 Vikran Lumyai +66 2862 9999 Ext 2028 Return on average equity (%) 55.2 84.5 81.4 80.9 85.7 [email protected] Net debt to equity (%) 25.3 70.5 58.6 2.3 1.4 Absolute Relative (2.7) 5.4 8.3 (14.3) (15.7) Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (THBm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB 7.4 net cash Powered by EFATM Platform 13 0 0 . 2 0 0 . 0 0 0 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. This report may further consist of, whether in whole or in part, summaries, research, compilations, extracts or analysis that has been prepared by RHB’s strategic, joint venture and/or business partners. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and accordingly investors should make their own informed decisions before relying on the same. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. Further, RHB, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this research report. 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DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Tel : +(60) 3 9280 2185 Fax : +(60) 3 9284 8693 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel : +(852) 2525 1118 Fax : +(852) 2810 0908 Tel : +(65) 6533 1818 Fax : +(65) 6532 6211 Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy:Malaysia Share price may exceed 15% over theRHB nextOSK 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Research Office Securities Hong Kong Ltd. (formerly known DMG & Partners Neutral: Share mayInstitute fall within months as 12 OSK Securities Securities Pte. Ltd. RHB price Research Sdn the Bhdrange of +/- 10% over the next Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Hong Kong Ltd.) 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