PTT Global Chemical Buy

Company Update, 7 November 2014
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
Buy (Maintained)
Energy & Petrochemicals - Downstream Products
Market Cap: USD8,207m
Target Price:
Price:
THB70.70
THB59.80
Macro
กําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 3/57 เพิ่มขึ้น 25% q-o-q
Risks
Growth
Value
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
79.0
108
74.0
98
69.0
88
64.0
78
59.0
68
54.0
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
58
PTTGC บันทึกกําไรในไตรมาส 3/57 เทากับ 7.5 พันลานบาท (+25% q-o-q, -21%
y-o-y) และขาดทุนสตอคน้ํามัน 2.8 พันลานบาท โดยสเปรดสินคาโภคภัณฑสวนมาก
เปนไปตามคาด โดยสเปรดโอเลฟนสและอะโรมาติคสฟนตัวในไตรมาส 3 ซึ่งขณะนี้
ราคาหุนมีการซื้อขายในระดับต่ําถึง -2SD เหนือ คา forward PBV ที่ 1.1x แตยังคง
นาสนใจหากเทียบกับคาเฉลี่ยในภูมิภาคทั้งในแงของ PE ที่ต่ําและ ROE, ROA ที่สูง
ยังคงแนะนํา “ซื้อ” ที่ราคาเปาหมาย 70.70 บาท (อิงระดับ PBV ป 2558 ที่ 1.2x,
18.4% upside)
♦
ราคาสินคาโภคภัณฑและสเปรดสวนมากเปนไปตามคาด
สเปรดผลิตภัณฑคละเคลาโดยสเปรด fuel oil/jet ฟนตัวในขณะที่กลุมโรงกลั่น
บัน ทึก ขาดทุ นสต อ คน้ํา มั นเนื่ อ งจากราคาน้ํ า มัน ดิ บลดลงในไตรมาส 3/57 ส ว น
สเปรด Olefins และ Polymer ฟนตัวจากราคาผลิตภัณฑที่เพิ่มขึ้นและตนทุ น
feedstock ที่ลดลง ทั้งนี้ สเปรดอะโรมาติคสฟนตัวในรอบไตรมาสที่ผานมาโดย
ราคา PX ไดผานจุดต่ําสุดไปแลวในไตรมาส 2/57
♦
มูลคากําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 3/57 เทากับ 7.5 พันลานบาท (+25% q-o-q, 21% y-o-y)
มูลคากําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 3/57 เทากับ 7.5 พันลานบาท (+25% q-o-q, -21% yo-y)
เป น ไปตามคาด โดยโรงกลั่ น มี อั ต ราการผลิ ต ที่ 102% และบั น ทึ ก
ขาดทุนสตอคน้ํามันเทากับ 2.92 เหรียญสหรัฐ/บารเรลและกําไรจากการรับประกัน
ความเสี่ย ง 0.70 เหรี ยญสหรัฐ /บาร เรลและ GIM เท ากั บ 3.83 เหรี ยญสหรัฐ /
บารเ รล ในขณะที่ โรงงาน Polyethylene ดําเนินการผลิตที่ 104% โดยสเปรด
Olefins ฟนตัวดีขึ้นในรอบไตรมาสที่ผานมา และโรงงานอะโรมาติคสดําเนินการ
ผลิตที่ 83% ดวยคา PX spread ฟนตัวจากระดับต่ําสุดในไตรมาส 2/57 และ
Benzene spread ยังแข็งแกรง ทั้งนี้ ในไตรมาส 2/57 ที่ผานมา PTTGC รับรู
ขาดทุนดอยคาเทากับ 2.2 พันลานบาทหลังมีการปรับโครงสรางทางุรกิจ
♦
ทิศทางในรอบไตรมาส 4/57: สเปรด Olefins สูงสุดในรอบ 2 ป
คาดกําไรจากการดําเนินการยังคงแข็งแกรงในไตรมาส 4/57 แตรายการขาดทุน/
กําไรสตอคน้ํามันจะขึ้นอยูกับราคาปดน้ํามันในชวงปลายป โดยคาดวาโรงงานจะมี
การดํ าเนิน การผลิ ตเต็ มอั ตราในช ว งไตรมาสสุด ทา ยของป และราคาสิ นค าโภค
ภัณฑแสดงใหเห็นวาสเปรด Polymer อยูในระดับที่สูงสุดในรอบ 2 ป เนื่องจาก
ตนทุน feedstock ที่ลดลงจาก น้ํามัดนิบ (83.99 เหรียญสหรัฐ/บารเรล, -17% qo-q), condensate (724 เหรียญสหรัฐ/บารเรล, -17% q-o-q) และ naphtha (21% q-o-q) ในขณะที่ราคาผลิตภัณฑยังคงทรงตัวแข็งแกรง
Sep-14
Jul-14
Mar-14
May-14
118
Jan-14
84.0
Nov-13
Vol m
Price Close
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (THB)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
PTT Plc.
Thai NVDR
HSBC (Singapore) Nominees
PTE LTD
612m/19.0m
27.1
18.4
56.8 - 80.0
51
4,509
48.9
7.2
2.8
Forecasts and Valuations
Share Performance (%)
Absolute
Relative
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
(24.4)
3.0
(8.8)
(14.3)
(24.6)
(34.5)
(45.9)
0.8
(12.4)
(26.6)
Shariah compliant
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744
[email protected]




Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
500,305
565,617
552,881
527,437
539,554
Reported net profit (THBm)
30,033
34,001
33,277
27,304
36,191
Recurring net profit (THBm)
30,033
34,001
33,277
29,242
36,191
Recurring net profit growth (%)
84.0
13.2
(2.1)
(12.1)
23.8
Recurring EPS (THB)
6.65
7.54
7.38
6.49
8.03
DPS (THB)
2.33
3.40
3.33
2.73
3.62
Recurring P/E (x)
8.98
7.93
8.10
9.21
7.44
P/B (x)
1.36
1.21
1.13
1.13
1.04
P/CF (x)
9.76
5.33
7.29
4.95
4.79
3.9
5.7
5.6
4.6
6.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.23
6.59
6.20
6.01
5.03
Return on average equity (%)
14.3
16.2
14.4
11.4
14.5
Net debt to equity (%)
46.8
32.3
32.2
37.5
27.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total turnover (THBm)
Dividend Yield (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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1
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Figure 1: 3Q14/9M14 results review
3Q13
2Q14
3Q14
% QoQ
% YoY
9M13
9M14
% YoY
FY14F
%of
FY14F
142,311
153,282
146,676
-4
3
397,268
447,324
13
527,437
85
11,723
8,578
8,932
4
-24
31,473
24,973
-21
40,846
61
8%
6%
6%
23%
17%
Net interest
(1,144)
(1,303)
(1,364)
5
19
(3,769)
(4,099)
9
(5,570)
74
Pretax profit
10,357
7,274
7,839
8
-24
27,358
21,370
-22
35,276
61
7%
5%
5%
20%
14%
(1,419)
(1,493)
-1%
-22%
FYE Dec (THBm)
Turnover
EBIT
EBIT margin (%)
Pretax margin (%)
Taxation
(708)
(599)
(521)
-7%
-8%
-8%
Associate income
(54)
290
240
-17
-547
(93)
770
-926
(1,500)
(51)
9,610
6,086
7,591
25
-21
26,088
19,972
-23
27,304
73
7%
4%
5%
19%
13%
2.13
1.35
1.68
5.79
4.43
Net margin (%)
EPS (THB)
25
-26
7%
Tax rate (%)
Net profit
-13
8%
-21
5
(4,233)
35
-12%
5%
-23
6.05
73
Source: RHB
Figure 2: Crude oil price (USD/bbl)
Figure 3: Refined product spreads
Source: Bloomberg
Source: PTTGC
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Figure 4: PTTGC’s forward P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total turnover
Profit & Loss (THBm)
500,305
565,617
552,881
527,437
539,554
Cost of sales
(453,385)
(516,497)
(500,673)
(475,839)
(480,900)
Gross profit
46,920
49,120
52,208
51,597
58,654
Gen & admin expenses
(9,125)
(12,005)
(14,031)
(10,752)
(10,994)
Operating profit
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
Operating EBITDA
51,403
53,930
54,914
58,781
66,385
(13,608)
(16,815)
(16,737)
(17,935)
(18,724)
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
(1,500)
(1,500)
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
Net income from investments
Other recurring income
-
(44)
(78)
3,180
4,292
4,124
-
-
Interest expense
(5,575)
(6,320)
(6,084)
(5,570)
(4,829)
Exchange gains
(724)
(1,322)
-
-
-
-
-
(2,239)
-
Pre-tax profit
34,676
35,865
34,817
31,537
41,331
Taxation
(3,102)
(1,416)
(1,976)
(4,233)
(5,140)
Minority interests
(1,541)
(448)
Profit after tax & minorities
30,033
34,001
Reported net profit
30,033
Recurring net profit
30,033
Exceptional income - net
821
436
-
-
33,277
27,304
36,191
34,001
33,277
27,304
36,191
34,001
33,277
29,242
36,191
Source: Company data, RHB
Cash flow (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Operating profit
37,795
37,116
38,177
40,846
47,660
Depreciation & amortisation
13,608
16,815
16,737
17,935
18,724
(15,087)
4,337
(9,908)
5,411
36,316
58,267
45,006
64,191
Change in working capital
Operating cash flow
(167)
66,218
Interest paid
(5,575)
(6,320)
(6,084)
(5,570)
(4,829)
Tax paid
(3,102)
(1,416)
(1,976)
(4,233)
(5,140)
Cash flow from operations
27,639
50,531
36,946
54,388
56,249
Capex
34,936
(25,036)
(6,966)
(37,528)
(18,360)
Other new investments
Other investing cash flow
Cash flow from investing activities
(106)
9,468
754
(13,774)
(51)
(12,481)
369
(13,139)
(101)
(5,499)
44,298
(38,056)
(19,498)
(50,297)
(23,960)
Dividends paid
(10,512)
(10,512)
(15,332)
(14,975)
(12,287)
Proceeds from issue of shares
(52,153)
120
Increase in debt
(10,610)
9,391
Other financing cash flow
(13,480)
(1)
5,076
(13,531)
-
-
-
(73,275)
(1,001)
(28,812)
(9,900)
(25,818)
Cash at beginning of period
21,035
18,973
31,269
18,582
10,534
Total cash generated
(1,338)
11,475
(11,365)
(5,809)
6,471
(724)
821
(1,322)
-
-
18,582
12,773
17,005
Cash flow from financing activities
Forex effects
Implied cash at end of period
18,973
31,269
(0)
0
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total cash and equivalents
22,606
60,062
44,384
36,336
42,806
Inventories
36,145
41,047
50,238
50,238
50,238
Accounts receivable
42,027
55,406
61,592
49,959
51,107
Other current assets
4,459
4,377
4,301
4,777
4,886
105,236
160,891
160,514
141,309
149,037
Total current assets
Total investments
Tangible fixed assets
Total other assets
6,505
7,978
14,029
14,475
14,475
255,758
262,479
253,054
272,201
271,837
5,468
4,714
4,765
4,396
4,497
Total non-current assets
267,730
275,171
271,848
291,072
290,809
Total assets
372,966
436,062
432,363
432,381
439,846
Short-term debt
22,064
16,404
27,564
24,400
19,269
Accounts payable
30,331
50,813
53,455
47,469
48,560
7,674
2,427
2,188
2,427
2,427
Total current liabilities
60,068
69,645
83,207
74,296
70,256
Total long-term debt
98,102
120,452
95,812
104,052
95,652
6,343
7,920
8,110
8,110
8,110
Total non-current liabilities
104,445
128,372
103,922
112,162
103,762
Total liabilities
164,513
198,017
187,129
186,458
174,018
45,108
45,088
45,088
45,088
45,088
116,556
140,366
156,436
157,126
177,031
Other current liabilities
Other liabilities
Share capital
Retained earnings reserve
Other reserves
Shareholders' equity
Minority interests
36,839
36,978
36,978
36,978
36,978
198,503
222,433
238,503
239,192
259,097
9,950
15,612
6,731
6,731
6,731
Total equity
208,454
238,045
245,234
245,923
265,828
Total liabilities & equity
372,966
436,062
432,363
432,381
439,846
Dec-15F
Source: Company data, RHB
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Revenue growth (%)
Key Ratios (THB)
33.3
13.1
(2.3)
(4.6)
2.3
Operating profit growth (%)
82.4
(1.8)
2.9
7.0
16.7
Net profit growth (%)
84.0
13.2
(2.1)
(18.0)
32.6
EPS growth (%)
84.2
13.3
(2.1)
(18.0)
32.6
(10.5)
12.1
7.2
0.3
8.3
7.6
6.6
6.9
7.7
8.8
Bv per share growth (%)
Operating margin (%)
Net profit margin (%)
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.2
6.7
Return on average assets (%)
7.7
8.4
7.7
6.3
8.3
Return on average equity (%)
14.3
16.2
14.4
11.4
14.5
Net debt to equity (%)
46.8
32.3
32.2
37.5
27.1
DPS
2.33
3.40
3.33
2.73
3.62
6.1
11.2
8.2
12.1
12.5
Recurrent cash flow per share
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
SWOT Analysis
• As the company is PTT’s flagship petrochemical
business, any deals in the future could be given to it
• Changes in the
landscape of the
oil and gas
industry could
have huge
implications on
the company’s
earnings
• Growth
potential will be
in the region
• The company is in a commodity-based business,
which can imply highly volatile earnings
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
18
100%
2
18%
16
84%
1
16%
14
69%
1
14%
12
53%
1
11%
10
38%
1
9%
8
22%
1
7%
6
7%
0
0%
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
P/E (x) (lhs)
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-15
-40%
Jan-14
-24%
0
Jan-13
2
2%
Jan-12
5%
0
4
Jan-11
-9%
0
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Company Profile
PTT Global Chemical has a total olefins and aromatics production capacity of 8.45m tonnes per annum, with 280,000 barrels per day
of petroleum production capacity. It was listed on the stock exchange of Thailand on Oct 2011, as a result of the amalgamation of PTT
Chemical and PTT Aromatics and Refining.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
7 November 2014
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
70.7
83.1
83.4
89.8
82.1
82.1
68.2
80.0
68.5
Recommendations & Target Price
na
85.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
Buy
50.0
Oct-11
Neutral
Aug-12
Sell
Trading Buy
May-13
Take Profit
Not Rated
Feb-14
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
2014-10-22
Buy
Target Price Price
70.7
59.0
2014-04-23
Buy
83.1
70.5
2014-02-26
Buy
83.4
73.5
2014-02-19
Buy
83.4
72.5
2013-10-22
Buy
89.8
77.5
2013-07-03
Buy
82.1
68.5
2013-05-20
Neutral
82.1
76.0
2013-05-20
Sell
60.2
76.0
2013-04-10
Neutral
82.1
68.0
2012-11-16
Buy
68.5
60.0
Source : RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
Disclosure & Disclaimer
All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or
warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer
to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for
information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does
not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the
information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or
financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies.
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8
RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company.
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Kuala Lumpur
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9
Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2014
Excellent
ADVANC
AOT
ASIMAR
BAFS
BANPU
BAY
BBL
BCP
BECL
BKI
BROOK
BTS
CIMB
CK
CPF
CPN
CSL
DRT
DTAC
EASTW
EGCO
ERW
GRAMMY
HANA
HEMRAJ
ICC
INTUCH
IRPC
IVL
KBANK
KKP
KTB
LPN
MCOT
MINT
NKI
NOBLE
PAP
PG
PHOL
PR
PRANDA
PS
PSL
PTT
PTTEP
PTTGC
QH
RATCH
ROBINS
RS
S&J
SAMART
SAMTEL
SAT
SC
SCB
SCC
SCSMG
SE-ED
SIM
SIS
SITHAI
SNC
SPALI
SPI
SSI
SSSC
SVI
SYMC
TCAP
THAI
THCOM
THRE
TIP
TASCO
TKT
TMB
TNITY
TOP
TRC
TRUE
TTW
TVO
UV
VGI
WACOAL
Very Good
2S
ACAP
AF
AHC
AIT
AKP
AMANAH
AMARIN
AMATA
AP
APCO
APCS
ASIA
ASK
ASP
AYUD
BEC
BFIT
BH
BIGC
BJC
BLA
BMCL
BWG
CCET
CENTEL
CFRESH
CGS
CHOW
CM
CNT
CPALL
CSC
DCC
DELTA
DTC
ECL
EE
EIC
ESSO
FE
FORTH
GBX
GC
GFPT
GL
GLOW
GOLD
GSTEL
GUNKUL
HMPRO
HTC
IFEC
INET
ITD
JAS
JUBILE
KBS
KCE
KGI
KKC
KSL
KWC
L&E
LANNA
LH
LHBANK
LHK
LIVE
LOXLEY
LRH
LST
MACO
MAJOR
MAKRO
MBK
MBKET
MFC
MFEC
MODERN
MTI
NBC
NCH
NINE
NMG
NSI
NWR
OCC
OFM
OGC
OISHI
PB
PDI
PE
PF
PJW
PM
PPM
PPP
PREB
PRG
PT
PYLON
QTC
RASA
SABINA
SAMCO
SCCC
SCG
SEAFCO
SFP
SIAM
SINGER
SIRI
SKR
SMT
SNP
SPCG
SPPT
SSF
STANLY
STEC
SUC
SUSCO
SYNTEC
TASCO
TCP
TF
TFD
TFI
THANA
THANI
THIP
TICON
TIPCO
TK
TLUXE
TMILL
TMT
TNL
TOG
TPC
TPCORP
TPIPL
TRT
TRU
TSC
TSTE
TSTH
TTA
TBSP
TCCC
TEAM
TGCI
TIC
TIES
TIW
TKS
TMC
TMD
TMI
TNDT
TNPC
TOPP
TPA
TPP
TR
TTI
TVD
TVI
TWZ
UBIS
UEC
UOBKH
UPF
UWC
VARO
VTE
WAVE
WG
TTCL zZMICO
TUF
TWFP
TYM
UAC
UMI
UMS
UP
UPOIC
UT
VIBHA
VIH
VNG
VNT
YUASA
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012
Good
A
AAV
AEC
AEONTS
AFC
AGE
AH
AI
AJ
AKR
ALUCON
ANAN
ARIP
AS
BAT-3K
BCH
BEAUTY
BGI
BLAND
BOL
BROCK
BSBM
CHARAN
CHUO
CI
CIG
CITY
CMR
CNS
CPL
CRANE
CSP
CSR
CTW
DEMCO
DNA
DRACO
EA
EARTH
EASON
EMC
EPCO
F&D
FNS
FOCUS
FPI
FSS
GENCO
GFM
GJS
GLOBAL
HFT
HTECH
HYDRO
IFS
IHL
ILINK
INOX
IRC
IRPC
IT
JMART
JMT
JTS
JUTHA
KASET
KC
KCAR
KDH
KTC
KWH
LALIN
LEE
MATCH
MATI
MBAX
MDX
PRINC
MJD
MK
MOONG
MPIC
MSC
NC
NIPPON
NNCL
NTV
OSK
PAE
PATO
PICO
PL
POST
PRECHA
PRIN
Q-CON
QLT
RCI
RCL
ROJNA
RPC
SCBLIF
SCP
SENA
SF
SGP
SIMAT
SLC
SMIT
SMK
SOLAR
SPC
SPG
SRICHA
SSC
STA
SUPER
SVOA
SWC
SYNEX
WIN
WORK
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
การเปิดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ
ดาเนินการตามนโยบายของสานักงานคณะกรรมการกากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป็นการสารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด
ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผลู้ งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสารวจ
ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสารวจจึงอาจ
เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด