Document 6597140
Transcription
Document 6597140
FX FX Rates (Mid) USD USD - EUR 1.244 JPY 115.75 GBP 1.577 CHF 0.966 AUD 0.870 INR 61.54 TRY 2.254 ZAR 11.21 BRL 2.568 QIBOR RATES Duration QIBOR Duration Overnight 0.80 3 Months 1 Week 0.85 6 Months 1 Month 0.90 9 Months 2 Months 0.99 1 Year US RATES US Rates Treasuries Libor 3M 0.01 0.23 6M 0.06 0.33 5Y 1.65 - 10Y 2.37 - GLOBAL MARKETS Indices Index Level GCC QE Index 13724 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 9766 UAE (ADX) 4939 UAE (DFM) 4578 Kuwait (KSE) 7202 Oman (MSM) 6955 Bahrain (BAX) 1438 GLOBAL Dow Jones 17612 S&P 500 2038 Nasdaq 4675 FTSE 6611 Euro Stoxx 50 3047 Nikkei 17345 Hang Seng 23929 Nifty India 8365 Borsa Istanbul 80395 COMMODITIES Crude Oil 77.09 Natural Gas 4.14 Gold US ECONOMIC DATA Time Event Initial Jobless 16:30 Claims 16:30 Continuing Claims 1165 Period Survey Nov-08 Nov-01 280K 2346K TOP NEWS China’s leaders have discussed lowering the 2015 economic growth target and see the 3.64 need for the goal to be below this year’s level of about 7.5 percent, said a person with knowledge of the talks. The central leading group for financial and economic affairs 4.531 discussed targets including 7 percent, 7.3 percent, and below 7.5 percent, said the 0.031 person, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. The figure 5.742 hasn’t been finalized, the person said. The State Council Information Office didn’t 3.768 immediately respond to faxed questions seeking comment. 3.167 Brent crude extended losses from a four-year low, trading near $80 a barrel amid signs 0.059 that OPEC remains unwilling to reduce output to ease concern of a global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York. Oil has collapsed into a bear market as 1.615 leading OPEC members resisted calls to cut production and instead reduced export 0.325 prices to the U.S., where output has climbed to the highest level in more than three 1.423 decades. Venezuela, Libya and Ecuador have asked for action to prevent crude from falling further. The group is scheduled to meet Nov. 27 in Vienna. QIBOR The gap between U.S. three-and 30- year yields approached the narrowest level since 1.06 2009, reflecting demand for longer debt before a bond sale today. The Treasury 1.24 Department is scheduled to sell $16 billion of 30-year securities, which have rallied this 1.35 year as inflation holds in check even as the economy expands. The securities have returned 21 percent in 2014, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Three1.45 year notes are little changed. Swaps The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday warned of downside risks to its growth projections for the euro zone, and urged the European Central Bank to act if prices in the currency bloc continue to drift lower. The IMF's warning echoes an increasing fear among global policymakers that Europe is not on track to spur economic growth, 1.80 something that should be a key topic for discussion when leaders of the Group of 20 2.50 economies meet in Australia later this week. Asian stocks fell for the first time in five days after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 1 Day retreated from a record and the yen gained against the dollar. “People are looking for % the next story, whether it’s M&A activity or some good economic numbers,” Tony Farnham, Sydney- based strategist at Paterson Securities Ltd. “Investors are looking for a -0.23% bit more clarity on how Europe is going to go about its version of quantitative easing. -0.02% Valuations, particularly in the U.S., are looking a little bit pricey.” -0.10% Emirates NBD (ENBD), rated Baa1/A+ by Moody's and Fitch, yesterday priced $1bn in a 5-year bond to yield 3.258%. The bond was offered at a price of 99.963 cents on a dollar -0.21% and carries a coupon of 3.25%. The bond matures on 19 November 2019. 0.32% FX COMMENTARY 0.51% The Dollar took time out from its rally against the Yen and Euro as traders awaited Chinese 0.53% and U.S. data for fresh catalysts, while the Australian Dollar slid after a central bank official said an intervention on the currency has not been ruled out. The British Pound languished at -0.02% 14-month lows versus its U.S. peer after dovish messages from the Bank of England. The -0.07% Dollar was little changed at 115.56 Yen after its advance to a seven-year peak of 116.11 was 0.31% checked the previous day. The Yen stabilised somewhat after Japan's top government -0.25% spokesman Yoshihide Suga cooled speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will hold a snap election in December. The election talk had raised hopes that Abe will use a victory to -1.85% implement a second round of reflationary policies and possibly delay a planned sales tax hike, 0.86% sending Tokyo's Nikkei share average to seven-year highs and weighing on the Yen in turn. -0.04% Chinese retail sales and industrial output figures will be released at 0530 GMT. The -0.22% Australian Dollar, sensitive to the economic fortunes of China, was down 0.3 percent at 2.54% $0.8695 after Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said an intervention on the currency has not been ruled out. The Aussie has fallen 2.5 percent against the Dollar so far this year but the RBA had repeatedly said the currency was -0.12% overvalued. Other economic indicators that could influence currency markets include U.S -1.00% jobless claims later in the session and U.S. retail sales data on Friday. The numbers may 0.17% reinforce the brightening U.S. economic prospects vis a vis Europe and Japan, a key factor that has helped the Dollar charge higher against the Euro and Yen. Reflecting an improving Prior economy, the Federal Reserve ended its money-printing programme last month, while the Bank of Japan boosted its stimulus measures to re-energise a fragile recovery. The European 278K 2348K Central Bank is also under pressure to ease more and support a sluggish Euro Zone economy. The Euro was flat at $1.2442, confined to a narrow range and managing to stay clear of a twoyear low of $1.2358 hit last week. Sterling was stuck near a 14-month low of $1.5760 after shedding nearly 0.9 percent overnight after dovish comments from the Bank of England. Governor Mark Carney said it was appropriate that markets expected somewhat easier monetary conditions QAR Thursday, November 13, 2014 REGIONAL STOCK MARKETS % CHG Yesterday Year to Date 1.00 EGYPT DUBAI 0.50 DOHA ABU DHABI - BAHRAIN SAUDI (0.50) LEBANON (1.00) JORDAN MUSCAT (1.50) KUWAIT (10.00) (2.00) - 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 QSOV. USD YIELD CURVE Spread to Bench 6.0 Today 01/01/2014 5.0 Yield % 50 3.0 - 2.0 (50) 1.0 Spread bps 100 4.0 (100) 0.0 -1.0 150 QATAR 4 01/20/15 QATAR 3 1/8 01/20/17 QATAR QATAR 6.55 QATAR 5 2.099 04/09/19 1/4 01/18/18 01/20/20 Sukuk QATDIA 5 07/21/20 QATAR 4 1/2 01/20/22 QATAR 3.241 01/18/23 Sukuk QATAR 9 QATAR 6.4 QATAR 5 3/4 01/20/40 3/4 06/15/30 01/20/42 (150) CHART OF THE DAY Britain has created as many jobs over the past four years as the euro region has lost, underlining the widening economic gulf with the country’s biggest trading partner. The CHART OF THE DAY shows working-age employment in the U.K. rose by 1.4 million to 29.4 million in the second quarter compared with the same period in 2010, based on data from the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat. In the 18 nations that share the euro, it dropped by 1.4 million to 138.7 million. The specter of stagnation in the euro area prompted Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to lower U.K. growth and inflation forecasts yesterday. With a general election in six months, Prime Minister David Cameron is also using the divergence to highlight the performance of the British economy and explain to voters why he is struggling to cut immigration from the EU. Disclaimer: It is understood that any opinions expressed by CBQ or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of CBQ or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information Contact Cb Dealing Room: Telephone: +974 - 44202253, 44202259, 44202261 Email: [email protected] Thursday, November 13, 2014