Global Warming: Current Issues And Implications

International Journal of Innovative Environmental Studies Research 2 (4):14-26, Oct-Dec. 2014
© SEAHI PUBLICATIONS, 2014
www.seahipub.org
ISSN: 2354-2918
GLOBAL WARMING: CURRENT ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS
Godwill U. CHUKWU
Department of Physics,
Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike,
P.M.B. 7267, Umuahia, Abia State,
Nigeria.
Tel: +2348025691478, E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
For some decades now, global warming has been with us. As the name connotes, it is a universal issue
which has vivid, tremendous and pronounced effects in every part of the globe. Its impacts and effects
depend on the geographical location of the region on the surface of the earth. In this short essay, the
author examines and reviews the issues of global warming and its implications so far in some climatic
regions of the world. Of the two principal causes of this problem or menace, natural and artificial, the
latter has contributed immensely to the problem and the situation gets worse as the days go by. Some of
the major issues and implications have been highlighted and remedies have also been suggested for a way
forward to minimize, or if possible, cease the un-friendly impacts.
Keywords: earth, global warming, temperature, climatic variation, greenhouse emissions, IPCC
INTRODUCTION
Global warming is an overall warming up of the planet Earth based on the average temperature increase
over the earth’s atmosphere and oceans caused by both natural and man-made activities. Normally, when
a body acquires heat as a form of energy, its physical conditions change. Our earth as a body, owing to
various natural and artificial causes, gets heated up and warm with a temperature increase. The term
‘climate change’ refers to long-term regional changes in climate which include temperature, rainfall, wind
speed, humidity, sun-shine, severe weather events and harmattan. Like global warming, climate change
has both natural and artificial causes. Global warming and climate change are used interchangeably but
they are not exactly the same. They are two different things, but one gives rise to the other.
The natural causes of climate change include solar activity, volcanoes, continental drift and ocean
currents. The major artificial or man-made cause of climate change is attributed to the increased level of
greenhouse gases (GHG) especially carbon dioxide, CO2 in the atmosphere (Trevarthen, 2009). GHGs
prevent solar radiation from being discharged into space. Carbon dioxide is the major gas. Some GHGs
are synthetic e.g. chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) while others like carbon and water vapor occur naturally in
the environment. These emissions spread around the earth’s atmosphere and form a cover that traps solar
energy which radiates out into space resulting in increased temperatures. Human activities such as coal,
oil, natural gas and wood burning (NAS, 2014) have astronomically increased the level of production of
GHGs (Fig. 1).
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o
C
Fig.1: Earth’s average surface (land/ocean) temperature from 1850-2012 (NAS, 2014).
Fig. 2: Different situations global warming anticipation
Figure 2 displays the situations if global emissions were to stop suddenly (a) it would take some time for
surface air temperatures and the ocean to cool, (b) because the excess CO 2 in the atmosphere would
remain there for a long time and would continue to exert a warming effect and (c) when global warming
is continuous and unabated.
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Global warming and climate change affect every part of the earth though the effects or evidences might
be different. Existing climatic regions have a range of effects resulting from climatic variations.
Experience of past changes suggests that the mid and high latitudes suffer the greatest modifications in
general climatic conditions (Nieuwolt, 1977). The recent concern over human-made changes in the
composition and structure of the Earth’s atmosphere (Shaw, 1994; Scheidegger, 1976; Wyllie, 1971) and
the increasing ability of model changes in climate have led scientists to study the dynamic components or
factors contributing to climate as distinct from current weather. Consideration of these factors has helped
in making climatic projections of atmospheric, hydrological, agricultural, vegetative and other useful
models that could have practical applications for developing countries like Nigeria (ICTP, 2009).
It has been established by researchers and scientists using instrumental records that there has been global
warming and climate variation or fluctuation in the past few decades. The variability of the world climatic
system can be observed from Figure 3. Again, as a global phenomenon, evidences and issues abound
within Nigeria, the West African sub-region and indeed the whole universe. Thus, it is a general notion
that the earth is warming and may give rise to some unpleasant consequences to mankind and the
environment in future if nothing is done to reduce the rate of warming (Awake, 2008; Houghton, 1984).
Some of the effects of global warming on the environment have adversely affected the health, food
production and every aspect of our livelihood (Evenson, 1999).
Fig. 3: Global average sea level since late 19C
The purpose of this review study is to adduce enough evidence that there is global warming, outline some
current issues (locally and globally) and their implications as well as the ways to minimize its impacts.
This study could help further researches to factor adaptive capacity into ecological modeling under
climate change.
STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
It is pertinent to briefly discuss the portion of the earth where climate phenomena take place. The gaseous
envelope of the Earth is densest near the surface and thins out gradually with height. The structure and
composition of the atmosphere are shown in Figure 4 and Table 1 respectively.
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Table 1: Composition of the atmosphere
Gas
Volume (%)
78.09
N2
20.95
O2
O.93
Ar
0.03
CO2
0.002
Ne
0.0005
He
(Source: Scheidegger, 1976)
Figure 4: Structure of the earth’s atmosphere (source: Scheidegger, 1976).
From the surface of the earth to eighteen (18) km vertically into the atmosphere constitutes the
troposphere. This is where considerable amount of turbulence produce weather or climatic phenomena.
Here, the temperature decreases with height. At the end of the troposphere begins the stratosphere which
attains the next vertical height of fifty (50) km. The temperature is initially constant and then rises. The
next eighty (80) km is called the mesosphere where the temperature begins to drop. The thermosphere or
ionosphere is the next layer where the temperature increases very rapidly into the exosphere. The study of
weather phenomena occurring within the troposphere is called meteorology whose parameters of interest
include pressure, temperature, humidity, wind direction and velocity. Others are rate and form of
precipitation and type and degree of cloud cover (Scheidegger, 1976; Lowrie, 1997; Adedeji et al., 2014).
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METHODOLOGY (CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING
The causative factors that bring about global warming and climate change as mentioned earlier are of two
main categories viz: natural causes and artificial or man-made causes. The man-made causes could also
be referred to as human activities.
Natural causes: The natural causes of global warming and climate change include volcanoes, ocean
current and continental drift. Also, solar activities constitute natural causes. For these naturally occurring
causative processes, little or nothing can be done to prevent them. Through scientific studies, the
causative factors can be predicted to know when these natural events will take place and possible
precautions taken. Man’s main concern is the artificial or man-made causes of global warming.
Man-induced causes (human activities): Some human activities constitute man-made causes of global
warming knowingly or unknowingly to man. Certain activities carried out on daily basis escalate and
aggravate the already warmed earth. Some of these activities or actions include:
The greenhouse effect – Scientifically, one of the major reasons adduced for global warming and climate
change is the intensification of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) which comprise of
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), sulphur dioxide
(SO2), water vapor and other gases, are the problems emanating from gradual rise in temperature of the
earth’s atmosphere caused by constant production and increase in the afore-mentioned gases mainly
carbon dioxide (Fig. 2). Carbon dioxide in the air surrounding the earth traps the radiant heat of the sun.
The production of carbon dioxide is a natural phenomenon very vital for life (photosynthesis) on our
planet earth but its over-production is inimical to our existence. When the radiant heat from the sun’s
energy falls upon the earth’s surface, about 70% of it is absorbed which heats up the air, land and sea. But
for this mechanism, the average surface temperature of the earth would be much lower than what it is.
Eventually, the absorbed heat is released back into space as infra-red (IR) radiation, thus preventing the
earth from over-heating. However, when the pollutants change the composition of the atmosphere; less
heat escapes and hence, causes the temperature to rise.
The Industrial Revolution - The era referred to as the ‘Industrial Revolution’ in Europe and the United
States of America (in the 18th and 19th centuries) witnessed the use of machines in manufacturing.
Exhaust gases fuming from those machines contribute immensely to the production of GHGs. Recall that
the use of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas produce large volume of these exhaust gases into the
atmosphere whose concentration has increased markedly since the start of the industrial revolution for
over twenty-five decades now. CO2 level in 2012 jumped 40% higher than it was in 19 century. Its
increase took place from 1970, about the time when global energy consumption accelerated.
Fig.5: Industrial revolution in Europe.
Food production and livestock farming – This is another greenhouse-enhancing factor which appears to
be the rising population of farm animals whose digestive processes produce methane (CH 4) and nitrous
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oxide (N2O) continuously. These gases add to the environmental debasement of the supposedly serene
atmosphere.
There are other human activities performed everyday directly or indirectly, knowingly or inadvertently,
which degrade the environment (Moutgomery, 2000). These activities include deforestation, bush burning
and hunting (crude forms of agriculture), dumping of toxic materials and depletion of the ozone layer
(Chukwu, 2008). Aerosols of natural and anthropogenic origins deserve to be mentioned, too. Their
effects (i.e. aerosols and gases) can be either long-lived or short-lived. While the short-lived aerosols
absorb and reflect radiation and decrease temperature, the long-lived gases trap the radiation and cause
increase in temperature. We can as well include increase in human population and man’s insatiable
desires for better and more comfortable pleasure. For instance, in a bid to erect a factory, a natural
vegetation cover whose reflective power is intact becomes ‘’destroyed”. Using gasoline-powered cars
pollute the atmosphere with exhaust fumes. Also, uncontrollable use of generating sets which pump out
acoustic and particulate emissions into the environment constitute debasement of our natural habitat and
thus create an imbalance in the normal ecosystem equation.
Air pollution - surrounding air pollution is a related problem to our environment as the pollutants
responsible for poor quality air and is also part of the greenhouse gases that are contributing to global
warming. Discussions on air pollution are normally focused on visibility and air quality but reducing
emissions that cause air pollution will also reduce GHG levels. In recent time the Chinese have been
having it very rough due to serious air pollution. Most of the people are having cardio-respiratory diseases
and other health problems. This air pollution is believed to be caused by the use of free coal to drive
industrial boilers.
Ozone layer depletion - the ozone layer depletion is quite different from global warming and climate
change but relates to them in a way. The ozone layer is a gaseous layer that acts as a protective shield
against ultra violet (UV) radiation in the upper atmosphere. It absorbs UV rays which are very lethal to
human life on earth. Depletion or reduction in ozone layers causes more UV rays to reach the earth’s
surface and affect crop growth as well as cause health problems like skin cancer. Closer to the earth
surface zone is a GHG called chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), which is a catalytic agent to global warming. It
is interesting to state that the problem of ozone depletion is now understood and appropriate measures are
being taken to protect the ozone layer from further depletion (IPCC, 2013). Scientific discovery shows
that the synthetic CFC which is responsible for the ozone holes has now been replaced with a more
environmental friendly substance and that takes care of the ozone depletion. Global warming and climate
change however, are still of serious concern to the environment and more actions are needed to address
them (Trevarthen, 2009; IPCC, 2013).
IMPLICATIONS
Several climatic and environmental conditions we have not experienced before have been taking place
within the past few decades. For instance, the usual ‘August break’ (a three-week spell of sunny, dry
weather in the month of August) that use to prevail during the rainy season in Nigeria has ceased to exist.
Again, there is complete extinction of some certain plant and animal species within and around Nigerian
forest ecology if keen observation is made. Also, the usual period of harmattan - a dry and dusty wind that
blows from the Sahara desert (via the NE Trade) which the West Africans referred to as ‘doctor’ has
changed both in intensity, severity and period of the year (Chukwu and Asiegbu, 2011).
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Fig.6: Earth’s global temperature rose: land and ocean measurements 1850-2012 (NAS, 2014).
Again, high temperature has been recorded as the global average surface temperature has increased as
seen in Figure 6. There is a global mean temperature difference of about 0.8˚C (NAS, 2014). The oceans
are not left un-affected as there is a global average sea level rise of about 20 cm. The implication is that
the ocean water is warmed up which then expands to give rise to higher level of water.
Some rivers/streams in Nigeria and elsewhere are drying up e.g. Lake Chad which used to be a large body
of water is now shrinking down to a small lake, the Aral Sea in Russia has reduced a lot between 1960
and 1997 (Table 2), pattern of rainfall has changed tremendously (Audu et al., 2012; Ayoade, 1973;
Ogolo and Falodum, 2007). While there is desert encroachment in the northern part of Nigeria, there are
devastating gully erosions and floods in the south. Incessant production of GHGs, depletion of the
ozonosphere with fully-halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) produced by man-made activities and
others are still going on (Chukwu, 2008). It can be seen in Figure 7 that the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere has been on the increase starting from the era of the industrial revolution and it
is assuming an unprecedented dimension.
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Fig. 7: Concentration of carbon dioxide and CFC11 (Houghton et al., 1990).
Note the rapid increase of CO2 by 1950 and emergence of CFC after 1940 (Houghton et al., 1990). The
situation develops into astronomical increases as the days go by. It is also pertinent to note that the CFCs
were not present in the atmosphere by 1940 (Figure 7) yet its rapid and increasing concentration is
alarming (Houghton et al., 1990). There have been cases of severe and catastrophic weather conditions
across the West African sub-region and the globe (Table 2) as a whole. Table 2 gives the statistics of Lake
Aral in former U.S.S.R. which has changed a lot due to climate change and global warming (de Blij et al.,
1997).
Other places are, however, not exempted from global warming implications. The super typhoon in the
Philippines which claimed over 10,000 lives and destroyed many infrastructures, the terrible fire incident
in Australia, several tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons and tornadoes in the United States of America,
radioactive discharges from nuclear plant turbines in Japan are typical examples. Another serious
implication is the effect on agriculture, food production and, of course, health. The grave food shortage in
Somalia and neighboring countries is as a result of unpredictable weather conditions for food production
in the region which has resulted into serious malnutrition of the populace and other harsh conditions
(Table 3).
Table 2: Shrinking Aral Sea (in Russia) statistics
Year
Depth (metres)
Area (km2)
Volume (km3)
1960
53 (175 ft)
67,340 (26,000 mi2)
1109 (266 mi3)
2
1997
37 (120 ft)
36,260 (14,000 mi )
334 (80 mi3)
Source: de Blij et al., 1997
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Table 3: Some global weather-related disasters in 2007 (source: Awake Magazine, 2008).
S/N
Location/country
Event/effect
1
Bangladesh
Flooding affecting 8.5m people and killed over 300 people and 1.25m farm
animals. About 1.5 million homes destroyed.
2
Bolivia
More than 350,000 were affected by flooding and 25,000 people were
displaced.
3
Britain
More than 350,000 people affected by the worst flooding in over 60 years.
England and Wales witnessed the wettest May-July since 1766.
4
Dominican Republic
Prolonged heavy rainfall caused floods and landslides, displacing 65,000
people.
5
India
Floods affected 30,000,000 people.
6
Lesotho
High temperatures and drought destroyed crops. 553,000 people may require
food aid.
7
Madagascar
Cyclone and heavy rains lashed the island displacing 33,000 people and
destroying 260,000 crops.
8
Mexico
Regional flooding left at least 500,000 homeless and affected more than
1,000,000 people.
9
North Korea
About 960,000 were severely hit by widespread flooding, landslides and
mudslides.
10
Pakistan
Cyclonic rains left 377,000 people displaced and hundreds dead.
11
Sudan
Torrential rains left 150,000 people without shelter. At least 500,000 received
aid.
12
West Africa
Floods affected 800,000 people in fourteen countries.
13
United States
Fires across tinder-dry southern California forced 500,000 residents to flee
their homes.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Being abreast of global warming and having been acquainted with some of the causative factors and
possible consequences to the planet earth and mankind, some thought-provoking issues come up:
watching the global habitat to be in grave peril portends danger to the environment and mankind and so,
solution must be proffered to the prevailing problem. Something has to be done to avoid a looming
catastrophe. The IPCC has cautioned that there is a limit when actions will not yield good results; hence,
the time for appropriate actions is now.
We begin by creating serious awareness through well-articulated campaigns and education towards
sustainability of our environment. Adopting plausible scientific measures to reduce to its barest minimum
the activities that could degrade our earth, accurate forecasting and well-tailored programs to tackle the
issues bordering on global warming and climate change to include mandatory limits on fossil-fuel
emission, sanctions to offenders, introduction and utilization of better alternative energy sources like
green technology, solar energy systems, etc. To this end, the recent research initiatives by different bodies
and organizations relating to this problem need be commended. Specifically, the recent effort by Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) towards projections of global warming and regional
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climate change using sophisticated climate models to determine temperature trends and other climatic
variables is highly commendable. IPCC meets frequently and gives periodic reports.
In the same vein, the Earth System Physics (ESP) section of International Centre for Theoretical Physics
(ICTP) in Italy is using the laws of physics; climatic data of natural phenomena that influence climate to
develop regional climate models (RegCM) which could be enabled and zoomed in on specific regions of
the globe and obtain fine-scale information. This is important because climates varies drastically from
region to region or even the same region (ICTP, 2004; Shaw, 1994; ICTP, 2009). These research efforts
should be applauded and commended, too. Other scientists and researchers should be encouraged to apply
their expertise towards ameliorating hardship of mankind occasioned by global warming through resultoriented researches.
The existence and issue of global warming have been scientifically established as real. The earth is a
system which requires a certain measure of stability. When, in one way or the other, a considerable stress
is applied on it by a number of factors like climate change, increasing temperature trend, environmental
abuse, ozone holes, etc, its stability may be affected and as such the overall stable ecosystems may be
disorganized, thus resulting into the serious upheavals mankind experiences this day. Most of the causes
that bring about global warming and climate change are man-made. For instance, a closer look at Fig.4
shows that the production of CFC whose emissions destroy the ozone-layered shield of the stratosphere
allow the lethal UV radiation to fall on the earth’s surface penetrating the troposphere (Figure 4). The
sharp trend of the graph in Figure 7 depicts that much destruction has been inflicted on the protective
cover (ozone layer) which started about sixty years ago. One thing is certain, we can reduce this rate if we
are determined to do it. The same thing applies to generation of carbon dioxide, whose rate of
concentration in part per million volumes in the atmosphere is very alarming.
Again, typical temperature and rainfall variations for many years up to present can be shown. This means
that a lot of data can be acquired which, when incorporated with the laws of physics, and the natural
phenomena that influence climate; scientists could be able to evolve reliable regional and local climate
models for forecasting and prediction. This is exactly what is happening at ICTP, Italy and other places
(ICTP, 2009). Table 3 presents weather-related records in 2007 alone world over. Between 2007 and now
more climatic/weather disasters of much greater magnitude had taken place which suggests that greater
debasement had been inflicted on the Earth within this short period. The World Meteorological
Organization (WMO, 2013) proclaimed the year 2012 as the worst flood year since 1850 when climatic
record-keeping started and this was the year Nigeria experienced the heaviest floods and erosions ever in
many states including Bauchi, Benue and Kano states (The Nation, 2012). More devastating weather
reports keep coming in daily from China, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Nigeria, India, Japan,
Philippines and several other places. It was predicted that 1.5 million people may be displaced by
flooding in coastal areas as the Atlantic Ocean has been swallowing portions of the Bar Beach at a rate of
16 feet per year.
Another suggestion for a way forward is for scientists and researchers to factor adaptive capacity into
ecological modeling under climate change and global warming. If the earth has changed so much to be
regarded as a new body i.e. a ‘new earth’, then new models to match the ‘new earth system’ have to be
evolved, this is where consistent and worth-while researches and studies come into play in all parts of the
world.
How will the climate change in future? This is another interesting question that needs an answer and some
workers have suggested some answers using the models in Figure 8.
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Fig. 8: Projected global average surface temperature as the years go by (source: IPCC, 2013).
Figure 8 shows the modeled projected Earth’s climate system in future years (up to the year 2100) by
scientists. The amount and rate of warming expected for the 21st century depends on the total amount of
GHGs man would emit. If man should adopt the models that project temperature increases: RCP2.6 (in
red color) represents a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario in which the earth shall be endangered the
more but if a serious and aggressive emission reduction falling to near zero from now on is vigorously
pursued RCP8.5 (in blue color), the earth will be safe and could return back to its natural form with time.
The next (black color) represents the historical past warming between 1986 and 2005 (Inter-governmental
Panels on Climate Change, IPCC, 2013).
The major problems in this regard are three. First, to determine how much CO 2 that could be produced
through human activity since this depends on some factors like global economy, the rate of production
and consumption of energy in the future? Secondly, how complex the climate feedbacks work since there
is a range of possible outcomes. Again, natural variability can modulate the effects of an underlying trend
temperature. All these problems taken together all model projections indicate that the Earth will continue
to warm considerably more over within the next few decades to centuries. If there were no technological
and policy changes to reduce emission trends, then further warming of 2.6-4.8oC in addition to that which
has already occurred would definitely be expected within the 21 st century, according to the IPCC (2013).
CONCLUSION
Having outlined the causes and impending consequences of global warming of the Earth, it is very
necessary for man to reduce very drastically those activities that can escalate and aggravate it. To achieve
this, the root causes of the earth’s problems which include human greed, self-interest, ignorance, inept
government, illiteracy, poverty and apathy should be reduced. The earth’s life-sustaining environment is
being gradually degraded by pollution, deforestation, urbanization, large-scale combustion, the extinction
of flora and fauna species, to mention but a few factors. The activities that are inimical to global warming
should be stopped or minimized. In the light of climatic models and predictions, some certain measures
should be taken through good policy-making and legal framework. One other important fact that should
not be neglected in this global warming matter is illiteracy. For the developing nations, the level of
illiteracy, poverty and ignorance is very high and has contributed immensely to this sordid nature of the
global habitat. Governments should step up their efforts to fight these social malaises. Mandatory limits
on fossil-fuel emissions, penalties for offenders, introduction and involvement of more environmental
friendly technologies such as solar energy and green technology should be aggressively pursued. When
these anti-environmental measures are checked and controlled, the rate of global warming and climate
change will reduce, at least to a much lower and tolerable level. The IPCC has cautioned that there is an
extent the earth would be degraded to no remedy. The fight against illiteracy and poverty should be
intensified, more especially, in the third-world nations. Finally, global warming, climate, its variations or
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changes are closely linked to health, the growth of crops, economy and to total well-being. Therefore,
predictions or forecasts of short-term climate changes promise substantial benefits. Recognizing this
potential, a well-defined and coordinated program in climate-related researches, monitoring, assessment
of effects and information utilization need to be vigorously implemented.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
My acknowledgement goes to the management of Covenant University, Ota for inviting me as a Keynote
Speaker on the topic at their International Biotechnology Symposium (IBS) held between 8th and 12th
June, 2014. Also, Dr. Joshua B. Owolabi is highly appreciated.
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