WEEKLY SGS REVIEW & STRATEGY

Transcription

compr
ising
Gold
The Glory is Over
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Structured Products
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Interest Rate Derivatives
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Investments & Structured
Products
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
A simple causality
Sometimes, it is but a simple cause and effect scenario: dollar weakness following
three waves of quantitative easing (QE) efforts by the US Federal Reserve, all done
in a bid to arrest the weak labor market and achieve its 2.0% inflation mandate, has
invariably lifted dollar-denominated commodity prices in the six years to 2014. During
this period, gold rallied from a mere US$705/oz before the fall of Lehman Brothers,
to US$1,900/oz in 2011, just when risk aversion reigned, before positive global
economic prints and market talks of QE tapering ended the gold buying euphoria.
As we approach 2015, we recognise that the ingredients once responsible for the
strong rally in gold, have given way to a slightly rosier US economic outlook and a
stronger dollar. The path of least resistance is perhaps for the US economic recovery
to persist into 2015, in line with the Fed’s economic estimates, thus possibly
ushering in further dollar strength and lower gold prices.
Three reasons for the fall
Above all, the dollar strength, which is expected to persist into 2015, is by far, the
most convincing driver for lower gold prices. On this, the expected recovery of the
US economy into the next year, as well as further dollar strength considering the
recent balance sheet expansionary efforts by both BOJ and ECB, will likely drive the
dollar stronger in the coming year. As such, given the strong dollar-gold correlation
at -0.84 seen in the first 11 months of 2014, subsequent dollar strength in the coming
year should compel gold to print lower.
Dollar Strength explains it all
79
1,350
81
1,300
83
1,250
85
1,200
87
1,150
89
Barnabas Gan
+65 6530-1778
[email protected]
Gold Future $/oz
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
1,100
DXY Absolute (RHS- Inverted)
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC
Secondly, the same higher interest rate environment should discourage paper
demand for the yellow metal, given that gold is a zero-yielding asset. With global
16 December 2014
OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015
Higher Interest rates raises opportunity cost for
holding gold
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
G7
Gold Futures YOY (RHS)
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
48%
32%
16%
0%
-16%
-32%
-48%
Jan-07
Positive real
interest rates
Negative real
interest rates
rates likely to take a step up next year, interest-yielding assets like equities and bonds would likely be more
attractive to investors. To this end, the higher interest rate environment and the likely tame global inflation
outlook given low oil prices, should further support real interest rates and leave gold in the backseat.
Asia Pacific (ex-Japan)
Lastly, the expected sustained global economic recovery into 2015 should pale gold’s status as a safe haven
asset. While global growth is likely to remain uneven across the major economies, the overall pace of recovery is
expected to pick up modestly in the coming year. On this, we expect the US economy to remain in recovery
mode, while a sluggish but positive Eurozone growth may add to risk-taking behavior given the accommodative
policies in place. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is forecasted to print a healthy 7.1% y/y growth (OCBC
forecast) in the coming year. As such, against this favorable growth backdrop, investors are likely to remain in
risk-taking mode and shed off safe haven demand.
Gold, a sign of prestige and luck
Ultimately, even if paper demand dampens, the yellow metal is a commodity that Asians regard as a sign of
prosperity and prestige. On this, a low gold price that eventually translates into cheaper jewelry may persuade
increased physical buying, and provide some support to the otherwise downtrend of gold prices.
400
Hong Kong Gold Exports to China
350
Kilograms (th)
300
250
2013 total gold
imports:
1.5 million
kilograms
200
150
100
50
0
Aug-14
Mar-14
Oct-13
May-13
Dec-12
Jul-12
Feb-12
Sep-11
Apr-11
Nov-10
Jan-10
Aug-09
Mar-09
Oct-08
May-08
Dec-07
Jul-07
Feb-07
-100
Jun-10
First 8 months of 2014 - Gold Imports:
616.8 thousand kilograms
-50
Treasury & Strategy Research
2
16 December 2014
In fact, physical buying has picked-up of late, firstly with increased Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong to
111.4k kg in Oct 2014 from a multi-month low print of 38.0k kg back in Aug 2014. Meanwhile, India’s commerce
ministry reported that its country’s gold imports had grown to US$4.14bn in Oct 2014, up from a mere
US$1.09bn a year ago. India lawmakers had also reportedly scrapped gold export regulation which previously
required traders to export 20% of all gold that are imported into the country.
The return of higher gold imports from China and India, following the fall in gold price, clearly suggests that
physical buying has been a viable source of demand when paper demand falls short. However, total physical
demand is estimated at only roughly 10% of global trading volume, while paper demand from global futures and
options markets and ETF gold holdings account for 90% in the first 10 months of 2014. Since paper demand
much exceeds physical demand significantly, its fall will have a much greater impact on gold prices.
Gold Trading Volume (In million troy oz)
Jan - Oct '14 Share Jan - Oct '13
Paper Demand
287.2
90.2%
391.3
London Bullion Market (LBMA)
179.5
56.4%
225.9
Gold Backed ETFs
53.0
16.7%
60.5
CME Gold Futures & Options
39.5
12.4%
50.2
Mumbai MCX Gold Futures
12.9
4.1%
49.4
Shanghai Futures Exchange
1.1
0.4%
1.0
TOCOM Gold Futures
1.1
0.3%
4.3
Physical Demand
31.2
9.8%
34.5
Jewellery
17.2
5.4%
17.9
Technology
3.1
1.0%
3.3
Investment
7.9
2.5%
10.0
Central Bank Purchases
3.0
0.9%
3.3
Share
91.9%
53.1%
14.2%
11.8%
11.6%
0.2%
1.0%
8.1%
4.2%
0.8%
2.4%
0.8%
Source: London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Shanghai Futures Exchange
(SHFE), Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), World Gold Council,
Bloomberg, OCBC Bank
Physical buyers to celebrate?
The fall in gold prices over the last two years have suggested that the recovering global growth and the prospect
of higher interest rates are persuasive drivers to turn gold bulls to bears. However, low gold prices have also
invited physical buyers back to the table, as seen in increased physical demand in both China and India. As we
approach 2015, we expect that the same said drivers to drive gold prices lower. Still, falling gold prices may be
welcomed by physical buyers, but the increased fervency of which, given that it is responsible for about 10% of
total gold trade, is likely insufficient to inject a substantial upside for the yellow metal. As such, we look for gold
price to average US$1,000/oz in 2015.
3
c
o
m
pr
isi
n
g
16 December 2014
Crude Oil
A market-balancing act
Back to basics
In elementary economics, a student’s first lesson is perhaps, the study of marketclearing equilibrium prices using a simple demand and supply model. The
conclusions of that model, while simplistic, form the basic rule for all consumption
patterns – prices rise (fall) when demand exceeds (undershoots) supply till market
clearing equilibrium condition is achieved.
With that theory in mind, we have been calling for lower oil prices even when WTI
and Brent were averaging around $100/bbl in the middle of 2014. The drivers for our
call back then were (1) the unprecedented rise in US oil production, backed by their
shale oil industry, (2) tame demand patterns given the growth challenges in major
economies, and (3) easing geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine.
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To be fair, these three factors did play out to depress WTI and Brent prices to our
initial year-end target of $80/bbl and $85/bbl respectively. However, market concerns
over a sustained oil glut into 2015 amid investors’ reaction over Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) decision to keep its 30 million barrels per
day (mbpd) production target intact spooked WTI below its $60/bbl handle, way
below our year-end target.
Tel: 6349-1886
Brent and WTI Futures (LHS)
140
40
Tel: 6349-1810
120
30
100
20
80
10
60
0
WTI-Brent Spread (RHS)
40
-10
WTI
Brent
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
-30
Dec-10
0
Sep-10
-20
Jun-10
20
WTI-Brent Gap (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank
Barnabas Gan
+65 6530-1778
[email protected]
Where is the over-supply coming from?
A lot of market talks had focused largely on a single data point in recent history – the
reluctance by the OPEC to cut oil production in its November OPEC meeting.
However, the rationale for this decision is equally important, as the cartel cited its
decision on their “interest of restoring market equilibrium”, thus recognizing that there
is indeed a supply glut.
4
16 December 2014
The supply glut, as Saudi Arabia correctly pointed out, is not caused by OPEC’s oil production. Rather,
according to our estimates, the rise in non-OPEC oil supply has risen to an estimated average of 55 million
barrels a day in 2014, up from an average of a mere 48 million barrels a day back in 2008. The increase was
largely led by the increased oil production from the US, which ultimately left the glut at an estimated at about 2.0
million barrels a day in 2014. Interestingly enough, this is the same reason that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali AlNaimi, cited on his decision to keep OPEC’s production on pat, as the overproduction is not triggered by the
OPEC cartel.
US oil production led the increase in non-OPEC
(accumulated change since 1Q2008)
million barrels a day
8
6
4
2
0
-2
NON-OPEC
US
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
-4
OPEC
Crystal ball into 2015?
In establishing that there indeed is a supply glut at this juncture, the million-dollar question is perhaps, how far
prices will fall to establish market clearing conditions. In this, we employ the simple demand and supply model
once again and deduce that the current price lows should discourage oil production from the non-OPEC
countries (given that OPEC has repeatedly affirmed their inaction to this matter), and importantly, lift global oil
demand as oil becomes increasingly affordable.
On this, a cheaper crude oil and a rosier global economic backdrop may inject further upside to oil demand in
2015. To this end, major oil agencies like the OPEC, EIA and IEA have reiterated their view for oil demand to
expand into 2015. Our oil demand forecast model which leads oil demand by 8 months, concurs with this view as
well, with oil demand to climb about 1.4% y/y, or 1.28 mbpd, in the first half of next year to 92.8 mbpd.
60%
6%
40%
4%
20%
2%
0%
0%
Jan-15
Jun-14
Nov-13
Apr-13
Sep-12
Feb-12
Jul-11
Dec-10
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
-4%
Jan-08
-40%
Jun-07
-2%
Nov-06
-20%
Oil Demand Growth
Oil demand growth is likely to stay below 2.0%
Motor Vehicle Registration (lead 8-months)
Oil Demand YOY (2mma - RHS)
Oil Demand Forecast YOY (RHS)
5
16 December 2014
However, oil supply growth is likely to stay positive as well, according to oil production estimates by OPEC and
EIA. Specifically, OPEC continues to expect another glut year in 2015, with global oil supply growth at an
estimated 1.36 mbpd, led by increased US oil production. This expectation, even in the face of falling oil prices,
is not surprising, as shale wells are estimated to last as long as thirty years, according to EOG Resources. In
addition, the sunk cost to establish existing shale oil wells have been paid and production from them are likely
hedged against falling oil prices. Meanwhile, though capital expenditure plans by major US oil exploration and
production companies are penciled to contract 17.7% to $14.5bn, the sustained flow of capital flow, though in
reduced amounts, suggests additional production and exploration efforts in the coming year.
Capital expenditure plans announced by US exploration and
production companies
2014 Capex
2015 Capex
y/y %
Apache Corp
$5.4 billion
$4 billion
-26%
Conoco Philips
$16.9 billion
$13.5 billion
-20%
Continental Resources Inc
$4.6 billion
$4.6 billion
+1%
Denbury Resources Inc
$1.1 billion
$550 million
-50%
Emerald Oil Inc
$250 million
$210 - $240 million -10%
Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd
$791 million
$670 -$690 million
-14%
Goodrich Petroleum Corp
$350 million
$150 - $200 million -50%
Halcon Resources Corp
$969 million
$750 - $800 million -20%
Oasis Petroleum Inc
$1.4 million
$750 - $850 million -43%
Rosetta Resources Inc
$1.2 billion
$950 million
-20%
Sanchez Energy Co
$870 million
$850 - $900 million
+1%
Swift Energy Co
$391 million
$240 - $260 million -36%
Estimated Total
$17.6 billion
$14.5 billion
-17.7%
Source: Thomson Reuters
Something’s got to give
With the prospect for a supply glut to continue into 2015, something within the variables (price, supply and
demand), has to adjust in order for crude oil to return to market equilibrium, an aim should we recall, is
regurgitated by the latest OPEC rhetoric. The simplest order of things, perhaps, is for prices to adjust further for
equilibrium to occur.
However, in the complexity of things, future crude supply into 2015 is perhaps, the biggest wildcard, given (1)
the need for OPEC to keep prices above $90 - $110/bbl in order for their fiscal books to stay positive, and (2) the
need for US shale producers to keep oil above their average marginal production cost of $70 - $77/bbl. In this
sense, both oil producers prosper on high oil prices, and the current low oil prices have undoubtedly affected
profit margins. As such, there present only two scenarios for oil prices to rally once again: (1) low oil price to
force some high-cost shale players off the grid, or (2) for OPEC to relent and initiate an emergency production
cut to prop prices in its next OPEC meeting.
But no matter who blinks first, the fact remains that shale oil producers would require prices to return to at least
$80/bbl in order to stay afloat. But as to which scenario may take place, we have faith in Saudi Arabia’s rhetoric
in keeping production unchanged till its re-consideration in the next OPEC meeting (June 2015), thus making
scenario (2) unlikely. Should OPEC production stay pat till then, lower profit margins for high-cost shale
producers may eventually take them off the production grid in order to achieve market clearing conditions.
Last but not least, geopolitical risk, an important and yet unquantifiable factor in influencing oil supply
expectations, should be considered as well as we approach 2015. Should history be of reference, we are
reminded of the rally in oil prices on numerous geopolitical events including Russia and Ukraine, the ISIS
insurgency in Iraq, previous civil war in Libya, and sanctions against Iran given its nuclear programme. On this,
6
16 December 2014
we continue to monitor this important driver, and do expect oil prices to take a step up should similar events take
place again.
The tale of two halves
Given the likelihood for the supply glut to persist into 2015, oil prices are likely to stay low for at least the first half
of 2015. However, low oil prices does affect profit margins by oil producers, where US shale oil producers face
an estimated marginal cost of $70 - $77/bbl, versus OPEC’s need for oil to stay above $90-$110/bbl in order to
keep their fiscal balances positive. As such, regardless of who blinks first, we do expect oil supplies to take a
step down in the second half of next year, especially when hedging instruments that ensure shale selling prices
gradually expires, and keeping in mind of OPEC meeting on June 2015. As such, WTI and Brent may well
average $65/bbl and $70/bbl in 1H15, before a supply correction be seen in 2H15 where WTI and Brent should
average $75 and $80/bbl then.
7
16 December 2014
Crude Palm Oil
Biofuel and Mother Nature
More than just a supply story
Watchers of the crude palm oil (CPO) market regularly quote CPO production trend
by key palm oil producers as an important price driver. However, crude palm oil
prices have fallen to test its current MYR2,100/MT even during this seasonally low
production period. The fall is largely attributed to the plunge in crude oil prices of
late, given CPO’s nature as a biofuel and its correlation with crude oil prices.
To be sure, palm prices should see some upside bias at this juncture given
seasonally low palm production in Malaysia and Indonesia (collectively accounts for
86% of global palm oil supply) from heavier rainfalls during Nov – Feb period. This
then typically translates into a crude palm oil rally till end of 1Q15, a phenomenon
not seen at this juncture given the falling oil prices.
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Corporate FX &
Structured Products
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Products
The deal about substitutes
Crude palm oil prices, given its use as a biofuel, have undoubtedly been dragged by
falling oil prices of late. In addition, in the competing soy oil market, the US soy oil
futures have remained relatively affordable at its $0.32/lb handle vs the peak at
$0.44/lb back in March 2014.
1800
Tel: 6349-1886
Palm oil and its substitutes
1600
1400
1200
USD/ton
Tel: 6349-1810
1000
800
600
400
200
Crude Palm Oil
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
Soy Oil
Barnabas Gan
+65 6530-1778
[email protected]
On this note, weak outlook for soybean futures into 2015 is not helping as well, as a
conservative $9 - $11/bushel has been projected by the US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) in 2014/5, with global soybean production over the same period
projected to grow to a record 312.8 million tons, led by gains in Canada, Ukraine and
Paraguay. Meanwhile, soybean ending stocks are also projected at a healthy 410
million bushels in 2014/5. The increased production outlook and healthy stocks for
the coming year should keep soy oil prices tame, and consequently, cap potential
price upside for crude palm oil as its substitute.
And as written in our crude oil outlook, the over-supply scenario into 2015 may likely
8
16 December 2014
keep oil price at its $60 - $65/bbl handle for the first half of 2015, before potentiall y lifting to its $75 - $80/bbl
in the second half. Should our outlook come to pass, the low crude oil prices should limit demand for CPO as a
biofuel.
Growth concerns in palm oil export destinations
Aside from falling oil prices, growth concerns in key export palm oil destinations, specifically India, EU and
China, may deny CPO of any significant upside in the coming year. Firstly, India, being Malaysia’s top palm oil
destination, may likely raise import taxes on refined vegetable oils to protect local producers. Currently, India
levies a 2.5% tax on crude vegetable oils and 10% tax on refined vegetable oils, and the taxes may go as high
as 10% on crude vegetable oils and 25% on refined vegetable oils, according to the petition by the Solvent
Extractors Association of India (SEA).
Benin
Vietnam
Japan
Philippines
United States
Pakistan
Netherlands
EU
India
China
Malaysia top ten CPO destination
(Oct 2014)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Source: MPOB, OCBC
Secondly, EU, which is the second largest export destination for Malaysia, still faces economic growth
challenges into 2015. According to the Eurozone Commission, the EU economy is underperforming compared
with other post-crisis recoveries, and subsequently downgraded its economic outlook for 2015. Specifically, the
growth forecasts for Germany (1.1%) and France (0.7%), being the two largest Eurozone economies, saw the
sharpest downgrade. On this, the likely weakening of the Euro, amid sustained growth challenges, may
eventually discourage consumption demand, palm oil included.
Lastly, China, as the third biggest export destination, has collectively seen a 22.8% contraction in palm oil
demand in the first 10 months of 2014 over the same period last year. Many factors come into play in this
contraction print, as China currently undergoes the shadow-banking curbs, corruption clamping, and the overall
risk-adverse environment in the Asian dragon. A clear example on how the current reforms affected palm oil
demand may be seen from the difficulty to secure credit by China’s second-largest palm oil importer, Shandong
Changhua Food Group, given that banks had halted loan approvals and affected its import capabilities.
Meanwhile, Chinese palm oil inventories climbed to near historical highs at roughly 1 million tonnes in 3Q14,
thus discouraging import demand. We perceive a sustained weak Chinese import demand for palm oil, given the
high inventories, and sustained reform efforts in 2015.
Policy-driven biofuel demand
But as we move on from 2014 to usher in 2015, we recognize that there are policy moves to increase biofuel
consumption, specifically in Indonesia and Malaysia. In fact, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association
(GAPKI), the extent of the increase in biofuel demand in 2015 (up to 2.8 million tonnes from 2014’s 1.8 mllion
tonnes) will reduce 2015 export quantity to 19.5 million tonnes (down from 2014’s 20.0 million tonnes).
Meanwhile, the proposed biodiesel B7 programme in Malaysia, specifically involving blending of 7% palm
9
16 December 2014
biodiesel with 93% petroleum diesel, will be implemented gradually, starting with Peninsular Malaysia in
November, and Sabah and Sarawak in December. The B7 programme is estimated to consume an additional
575,000 tonnes of biodiesel, adding to other B7 programmes worldwide including EU, Thailand and Indonesia,
while Colombia implemented their own B8 and B10 programme.
Global biodiesel demand
250000
million litres
200000
150000
100000
50000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
2020*
2021*
2022*
2023*
0
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014 – 2023
*Indicates forecasted demand
Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia
Mil tons
2014
2015
Net Chg
Indonesia
Production
Export
29.5
20.0
31.5
19.5
2.0
-0.5
Malaysia
Production
Export
20.2
17.9
20.5
18.2
0.3
0.3
Source: GAPKI, MPOB, OCBC
Revisiting El Niño’s probability
Another factor that may lift crude palm oil further would be the re-emergence of El Niño risk in 2015. If we recall
the El Niño concern back in May 2014, weather forecasters were predicting a 70% probability of a severe El
Niño symptom this year, and an absence of such may mean a postponement of it to 2015, given the 4 – 6 years
cycle between each severe El Niño symptom.
According to our statistical models, we did find that agricultural prices increase on El Niño symptoms, as adverse
weather conditions get translated into poorer harvest conditions. However, price behavior varies across
commodities: in regards to palm oil, prices typically have 9 – 12 months lag, while wheat prices have been found
to be sensitive to weather changes. In correlation studies, palm oil prices enjoy the highest correlation with the
Oceanic Niño Index.
As such, given the likelihood of an El Niño phenomenon in the coming year, we recognise that this weather
wildcard will not only inject upside risk for palm oil prices, but also other agricultural commodities, including
soybean, which is a close competitor for palm oil.
10
16 December 2014
Agricultural Prices and Weather Extremities
3
El Nino
2.5
5 years
(Agricultural Prices lag approx 9 - 12 months)
2
125%
5 years
6 years
3 years Nov 09 - ?
Strong
4 years
1.5
4 years
Moderate
1
Weak
0.5
65%
35%
5%
0
-0.5
La Nina
95%
-25%
Weak
-1
-1.5
Moderate
-55%
Strong
-85%
-2
Oceanic Nino Index
Apr-13
Sep-11
Jul-08
Feb-10
Dec-06
Oct-03
May-05
Mar-02
Jan-99
Aug-00
Jun-97
Nov-95
Apr-94
Sep-92
Jul-89
Feb-91
Dec-87
Oct-84
May-86
Mar-83
Jan-80
-115%
Aug-81
-2.5
Agri Prices yoy (OCBC Calculation)
Source: National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administraion (NOAA), Bloomberg, OCBC Bank1
Piecing the jigsaw puzzle
Falling crude oil prices, weak outlook for CPO’s substitutes, and potentially softer demand from CPO’s key
consumers are viable reasons for CPO to see tame prices into 2015. The only upside factors for CPO may come
from the biofuel initiatives from Indonesia and Malaysia, aid from Mother Nature should an El Niño symptom
present itself in the coming year, and a hopeful earlier-than-expected crude oil recovery in the coming year. With
the lower crude oil prices at this juncture, we revise our CPO outlook to MYR2,300/MT (from MYR2,600/MT) in
2015.
1
Note: Agricultural prices is calculated by a weighted average of wheat, soybean, corn, rice, crude palm oil and sugar
11
16 December 2014
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WEEKLY SGS REVIEW & STRATEGY

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