Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly
Transcription
Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly
December 19, 2014 Equity Research Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly ACN Reports Better FQ1, Tone Positive, Guide Improved Excluding FX Happy Holidays to All; Next Major Earnings Infosys January 9 • THOUGHT OF THE WEEK. Leading global IT and outsourcing services provider Accenture (ACN) reported better than expected FQ1 (November) results, offered a positive business tone, and raised (before FX impact) revenue and EPS expectations for FY15. While there were signs that ACN results were turning the corner last quarter, this “print” certainly suggests that the tide has shifted after an extended period of resetting its business offerings. This suggests to us that we may be entering a period of potential for positive revisions, which should help the share price. Separately, in regard to the sharp decline oil prices, ACN’s CEO indicated that clients are in a “watching” mode and have not changed their IT spending plans at this time. IT & BPO Services • COMING EVENTS – INFY. The holiday season dominates the next two weeks with the next major earnings release coming from India-centric IT services provider Infosys (INFY) on Friday (early AM U.S.-Eastern) January 9th. The quarter should be interesting in the wake of the relatively cautious pre-quietperiod commentary from the largest India-centric provider Tata Consultancy (TCS, trades in India) on December 12th. Has the relative business momentum enjoyed by TCS the last few years faded, or is this a market headwind for all? Given ACN’s recent report, the jury is definitely still out. More importantly, investors are primarily interested in the margin impact from new initiatives highlighted by INFY CEO Sikka at the December 4th analyst day and prior to that, but that will not be quantified until the FQ4 call in April. Given the way the yearend holidays fall, our next “weekly” services newsletter will come in the new year. • HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK – IT Services – ACN, Atos-XRX. Accenture (ACN) reported FQ1 (November) revenue that was up 10% in local currency, and raised the FY15 (August) local currency revenue growth expectation a point to 5-8%. The recent strength in the U.S. dollar took away that fundamental improvement and then some. Other FY15 targets where held including for operating margin and bookings (despite higher FX headwind). Xerox (XRX) is selling its IT outsourcing business to European provider Atos for $1.05 billion, focusing its services business offerings on process outsourcing (BPO) and document outsourcing (DO). The ITO business’s estimated 2014 revenue was $1.5 billion and it represented about 13% of prior Services revenue at XRX. Please see page 8 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications All estimates/forecasts are as of 12/19/14 unless otherwise stated. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Ed Caso, CFA, Senior Analyst ( 4 43 ) 2 6 3- 6 5 2 4 e dw a rd. ca s o@ we ll sf argo. co m Richard Eskelsen, CFA, Associate Analyst ( 41 0 ) 6 25 - 6 38 1 ri c h a r d. e sk e ls en @ we ll s f a rg o . c o m Tyler Scott, Associate Analyst ( 4 43 ) 2 6 3 - 6 5 4 0 tyl e r. scot t@w el l sfa rgo .com WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT IT & BPO Services • Thursday Price Performance Ret u r n s YT D 6-Mt h s Pr i ce 12/18/14 Fr om Hi Fr om Low 1-Wk 1-Mt h IT Ser v i ce Pr ov i der s A ccen t u r e CGI Gr ou p, In c. Com pu t er Scien ces Cor p. $8 9 .7 4 3 7 .1 8 6 3 .7 2 0 .0 % 0 .0 -3 .8 - 1 8 .7 % - 2 5 .3 - 1 9 .3 7 .0 % 3 .9 2 .0 6 .5 % 1 .2 2 .7 9% 11 14 Cog n iza n t IGA T E Cor p. In fosy s Lim it ed Sy n t el, In c. W ipr o Lim it ed $5 3 .4 5 3 7 .5 6 3 2 .5 5 4 5 .9 1 1 1 .8 8 -1 .9 -7 .7 -6 .8 -5 .1 -1 6 .2 - 2 3 .4 2 9 .0 2 8 .3 1 7 .7 9 .3 3 .8 8 .8 2 .8 1 .1 1 .7 1 .3 4 .6 -3 .3 4 .3 -4 .5 On A ssig n m en t , In c Sa pien t Cor p. Bu si n ess Pr ocess Ou t sou r ci n g Ex lSer v ice Holdin g , In c. Gen pa ct Lim it ed W NS Holdin g s, In c. 3 2 .0 3 2 4 .8 2 -1 7 .7 -0 .2 - 2 1 .4 - 7 7 .3 0 .7 0 .0 2 7 .8 3 1 9 .0 4 2 0 .9 9 -1 0 .3 0 .0 -6 .8 - 1 4 .2 - 3 3 .3 - 2 1 .3 6 .5 1 -4 2 .3 - 2 5 .4 5 8 5 .9 3 4 1 .6 8 4 3 .5 2 2 9 .7 0 1 0 .1 2 5 0 .4 8 -8 .4 -4 .9 0 .0 -9 .0 -4 .2 -1 8 .4 -3 .2 - 2 ,0 6 1 .2 3 4 ,7 4 8 .4 0 2 7 ,1 2 6 .5 7 -0 .6 8 -0 .9 0 -5 .4 6 - 1 8 .3 3 - 1 8 .8 0 - 3 4 .3 3 Com pa n y Per for m a n t Fin a n cia l Gov er n m en t Ser v i ces Booz A llen Ha m ilt on CA CI In t er n a t ion a l ICF In t er n a t ion a l In c. Leidos Holdin g s, In c. Ma n t ech In t er n a t ion a l NCI, In c. SA IC In c. 1-Y 5-Yr s T i cker 8% 9 0 1 9% 7 19 1 1 7 % A CN 1 7 9 GIB 14 CSC 6 -6 15 1 -6 8 10 19 10 2 11 1 16 2 -1 140 27 7 19 145 -1 3 CT SH IGT E INFY SY NT W IT 4 .7 0 .7 -8 43 -1 1 49 -1 47 354 2 01 A SGN SA PE -1 .5 2 .3 0 .3 0 .2 6 .3 6 .1 1 4 -4 -5 10 11 3 9 2 57 33 39 EX LS G W NS 6 .7 3 .7 -7 .0 -3 7 -3 4 -3 6 NA PFMT 4 4 .0 2 5 .8 3 7 .0 3 1 .0 1 1 .7 6 5 .1 6 3 .2 -4 .8 -2 .3 6 .3 1 .3 1 .1 -1 5 .0 -3 .2 -3 .3 1 .1 9 .6 8 .7 0 .9 -1 3 .5 2 .1 33 17 20 -6 -1 53 53 -3 22 15 13 1 4 15 44 20 19 -2 3 61 63 NA 80 56 -4 2 -3 5 -6 2 NA BA H CA CI ICFI LDOS MA NT NCIT SA IC 1 .3 0 .9 -1 .7 0 .5 1 .0 -3 .7 12 14 28 5 9 8 14 17 30 87 115 62 S&P5 0 0 COMP SENSEX In di ces S&P 5 0 0 NA SDA Q Com posit e In dex BSE SENSEX Ou t per for m ed S&P 5 0 0 Not e: A s of T h u r sda y 's Close Sou r ce: Fa ct Set a n d Wel l s Fa r go Secu r i t i es, LLC 2 Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly RESEARCH COMMENTS – IT Services Accenture (ACN, Outperform, $90.36) FQ1 Rev/EPS Better; Growth Broad-based Digital Growth +20% FY15 Revenue/EPS Outlook Increased Before FX Headwinds FQ1 (Nov) Results Better All Around; Bookings Light, But In-line With Management Expectations; Better Visibility Allows for Increase in Local Currency (lc) Revenue and EPS Guidance, But Stronger FX Headwind More Than Offsets; Tone Positive and FY15 LC Targets Raised. FQ1 revenue of $7.9bn and EPS of $1.29 were better than expected on broad-based growth across geographies and verticals. Four of five operating units grew in the teens with challenged Resources vertical growth still positive and expected to remain so. Growth in “digital” offerings (20% plus) and key European countries called out as was Apps Services (which includes some ERP revenue). Unchanged FY15 bookings guide of $34-36bn would have increased but for the FX headwind, and pipeline indicated as strong. Energy clients (about 6% of revenue) indicated as still in a “watching” mode. FY15 revenue local currency (lc) growth raised a point. In our view, the management tone was as positive as we have heard in years. Our EPS Estimate Revisions. Reflects better than expected FQ1, incrementally more positive tone (in our view), offset by sharply higher FX headwind. FY15E to $4.78 from $4.81, FY16E unchanged at $5.22 and initial FY17 estimate is $5.82. Rating. Our valuation range increased to $96-98 (20x our FX impacted CY15 EPS estimate) from $87-90. We reiterate our Outperform investment rating, but note the shares appear more attractive on a “relative” than “absolute” P/E basis. FY2015 Guidance – Local Currency Revenue and EPS Raised, FX Then More Than Offsets. Local currency (lc) revenue growth now expected to be 5-8% (0-3% reported USD) versus prior guidance of 4-7% (2-5% reported USD). EPS guidance lowered to $4.66-4.80 from prior guidance of $4.744.88 due to unfavorable FX. Excluding FX change, FY15 EPS would have been up $0.06. Our/Street prior estimates were $4.81/$4.82. All other guidance was unchanged. FQ1 Results – Better Than Expected. Revenue of $7.9bn increased 7% y/y (10% lc) which was better than our/Street estimates of $7.70bn/$7.71bn. Consulting revenue (52% of total) grew 7% lc while Outsourcing revenue (48% of total) grew 14% lc. Bookings were $7.7bn (0.97x book-to-bill), light versus our estimate of $8.2bn. EPS of $1.29 was also better versus our/Street estimates of $1.17/$1.20. Our Thoughts From the Conference Call Analyst Question Focus. 1) Bookings duration/level, 2) Lower gross margin. EPS & FX. FY2015 guidance range reduced by $0.08 top and bottom, but would have been raised by $0.06 if not for the $0.14 FX impact. Gross Margin & Operating Margin. Management indicated that ''contract profitability'' has improved. Company focus remains on managing to 10-30 basis point improvement in operating margin annually. We were reminded that gross margin includes recruiting/training costs and that ACN did not see WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT downtrend in gross margin as an impediment to achieving its operating margin goal. Revenue. Upside to outlook was broad based by vertical and geography. ''Digital'', ''Operations'' and ''Apps Services'' were all indicated as strong. The Digital business grew +20% in FQ1. Europe was indicated as particularly strong, especially in traditional markets of Germany, France and Italy. Norway also grew double digits. Application services indicated as ''strong'' but did not offer a growth rate range. This suggests to us that ACN may be gaining share relative to Tier I India-based providers given recent muted commentary from Tata Consultancy. We also believe ACN is benefitting from strong European positioning, as management indicated European client interest rising in Apps. Pricing. ''Stable with strength in some areas.'' We viewed this as (slightly) relatively more positive. Bookings. FQ1 down consistent with analyst day commentary. FY2015 of $34-36bn unchanged despite higher FX headwind suggesting local currency improvement. Duration (annual contract value) also shortened helping with near-term revenue visibility. Management was also positive on pipeline. Acquisition Benefit. FY2015 guide for a 1.0-1.5% contribution which is unchanged. FQ1 was in that range. Cash Flow. Bonus payments historically paid in FH1, but will be more FQ2 weighted this year. FH1 cash flow will still benefit by about $300mm for reduced FY2014 bonus accrual. M&A / CAPITAL MARKETS ACTIVITY - Atos announced its intention to purchase Xerox’s (XRX) IT outsourcing (ITO) business for $1.05 billion. As part of the transaction, Atos will also become XRX’s primary IT services provider. XRX’s ITO business has annual revenue of about $1.5 billion (~5% of XRX total revenue and about 13% of total services revenue), around 4,500 employees which includes approximately 3,800 employees in India, the Philippines and Mexico. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2015. After-tax proceeds are expected to be approximately $850 million. Additionally, XRX is increasing capital allocation for share repurchases in 2015 to $1.0 billion and for acquisitions up to $900 million. Given the unit sale, XRX lowered their 2015 GAAP EPS (continuing operations) guidance to $0.88-0.94 from $1.05-1.11. - Fitch Ratings affirmed all credit ratings for Accenture (ACN) including the long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of A+. Fitch also maintained a stable outlook for the company. The rating impacts about $1 billion of ACN’s undrawn credit facility. - Ciber (CBR) authorized a $10 million share repurchase program. There was not previously a share repurchase program in place. The authorization has no expiration date. - Perficient (PRFT) entered into an agreement to acquire the assets of Zeon Solutions, including its subsidiary Grand River Interactive and an Indian affiliate, for $35.7 million. The purchase price includes $22.3 million in cash and $13.4 million in PRFT stock. Zeon has annual revenue of about $23 million. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to adjusted EPS and close in early January 2015. 3 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT IT & BPO Services GOVERNMENT – Other News (as of Thursday’s close) 1 Week Price Change KEYW 8% ICFI 7% KTOS 7% MMS 5% S&P500 3% MANT 3% EGL 2% LDOS 2% Group Average 2% CACI 1% SAIC 0% BAH (0%) NCIT (13%) YTD Price Change NCIT 53% SAIC 53% BAH 33% EGL 22% MMS 22% ICFI 20% CACI 17% S&P500 12% Group Average 10% MANT (1%) LDOS (6%) KEYW (26%) KTOS (36%) Source: FactSet Contract Announcements Value ($MM) Company Client Details CACI-Athena Special Ops Provide geospatial analytical support $38.4 Command services Army DynCorp Contract modification; aviation maintenance 42.9 support DLA SAIC 3-month bridge; provide maintenance, 23.0 repair and operations support DLA = Defense Logistics Agency B=base year; O=optional year, MA=multiple award, TCV=total contract value, IDIQ=indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity, BOA=basic ordering agreement, BPA=blanket purchase agreement Source: Company information or government disclosures - Federal News Radio reported the President signed the $1.1 trillion “CRomnibus” bill passed by the House last week and the Senate over the weekend. The bill funds all agencies, with the exception of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the end of GFY2015. DHS will be funded through February 27. The bill provides the Department of Defense (DoD) a base budget of about $490.1 billion, which is $3.3 billion larger than GFY14. It also provides $64 billion for overseas contingency operations (OCO) or “in-theatre” operations which is $21 billion lower than GFY14 given the Afghanistan troop reductions. - Nextgov reported the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is in the process of notifying 48,439 federal employees that their personal information may have been compromised following a security breach at KeyPoint Government Solutions. KeyPoint conducts background investigations of federal employees seeking security clearances under a contract with OPM. OPM has indicated there is not yet conclusive evidence that personal information was stolen, but has notified employees out of caution. Employees impacted by the breach will receive free credit monitoring. Over the summer USIS, a former contractor on the same OPM contract, indicated its systems had been breached. OPM subsequently suspended work with USIS and later chose not to renew an option year on its contract. - The Government Accountability Office (GAO) partially sustained a protest filed by CGI Group (GIBa, Market Perform, $43.07) over a contract awarded by the Department of the Navy, Space and Naval Warfare Research Center (SPAWAR) to five other contractors for the production of build-to-print network 4 systems to be installed in Navy ships. GIBa argued that the agency failed to amend its price evaluation despite knowing the agency requirements had changed. GIBa also alleged the agency did not properly evaluate bids. The GAO ruled GIBa’s argument over its past performance price evaluation was without merit but did recommend the agency amend the bid to reflect its actual ordering needs and allow bidders to resubmit their prices. The GAO also recommended that the agency reimburse GIBa for costs related to filing the protest. Global Delivery – Other News (as of Thursday’s close) 1 Week Price Change IGTE 11% WIT 6% G 6% CTSH 6% INFY 4% SYNT 4% Group Average 3% S&P500 3% WNS 2% EXLS 0% VRTU (0%) SENSEX (2%) EPAM (5%) YTD Price Change EPAM 38% SENSEX 28% INFY 15% S&P500 12% VRTU 6% CTSH 6% Group Average 5% G 4% SYNT 1% EXLS 1% WNS (4%) WIT (6%) IGTE (6%) Source: FactSet Offshore: Local Prices (12/12– 12/19) Local Shares INFOSYS-BOM HCL-BOM TCS-BOM WIPRO-BOM TECHMAH-BOM Period 2% (0%) (1%) (2%) (2%) YTD 13% 23% 13% (4%) 39% Indices BSE IT SENSEX Period YTD 3% 16% (2%) 28% Source: Bombay Stock Exchange Limited, FactSet Foreign Exchange Rate Watch (as of Thursday’s close) Indian Rupee Philippine Peso Close (per 1 USD) Full-year – 2009 Full-year – 2010 Full-year – 2011 Full-year – 2012 Full-year – 2013 62.33 + 4.5% + 3.9% - 18.8% - 3.2% - 12.9% 44.74 + 2.8% + 5.2% + 0.1% + 6.4% - 8.1% Year-to-date – 2014 Quarter-to-date Over the past week - 2.1% - 2.2% - 1.3% - 0.8% + 0.3% - 0.6% Definitions: ‘+’ = appreciated; ‘-‘ = depreciated Source: FactSet WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly 70 70 Indian Rupee Philippine Peso 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 Sep-13 35 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 British Pound Euro 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 Sep-13 1.2 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Source: FactSet - The Economic Times reported Wipro (WIT) is spending over $200 million annually to build out its next-generation technology platforms including automation tools and machine to machine learning systems. According to Chief Technology Officer KR Sanjiv, the company has invested heavily over the last several years and indicated WIT plans to continue to invest more than the industry average in these initiatives moving forward. - The Economic Times reported Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is targeting $1 billion in annual revenue from France within the next five-years, according to a presentation from Krishnan Ramanujam, global head and VP of enterprise solutions to industry analysts in Paris. Mr. Ramanujam indicated the company also plans to step up recruiting of graduates and increase its employee base in France which currently stands at 1,400. - WNS Holdings (WNS, Outperform, $21.00) signed a partnership agreement with Commercial Bank of Dubai (COB) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). WNS will initially manage back office operations for CBD’s Trade Finance and Credit processing business in connection with the partnership. Financial terms of the agreement were not provided. - Courthouse News Service reported Computer Sciences (CSC, Market Perform, $64.22) was ordered to pay five former employees over $350,000 in back pay related to work performed overseas while working on a defense contract. The plaintiffs argued they were entitled to hourly wages for hours worked while CSC argued they were due an annual salary based on their hourly wage. The former employees argued CSC denied them overtime wages while they worked up to 84 hours a week between September 2010 and June 2012. They also alleged they were directed to only record 12 hours of work per day on their time sheets and that supervisors would change their time sheets if they recorded more. A spokesperson for CSC indicated the company plans to file an appeal. - CGI Group (GIBa) announced Canadian Payments Association (CPA) has renewed its IT infrastructure services contract for an additional five years plus a two-year extension option. CPA has been a GIBa client for 22 years. Financial terms of the deal were not provided. - CGI Group (GIBa) announced PostNord renewed its payroll outsourcing contract for five years plus a two-year extension option. GIBa will continue to manage payroll processes for PostNord’s 26,000 employees across its Swedish operations. Financial terms of the deal were not provided. - CGI Group (GIBa) signed a five year, EUR 22 million ($27 million) IT outsourcing contract with the City of Vantaa in Finland. Under the terms of the contract, GIBa will take responsibility of the city’s information systems, servers and workstations as well as support around 11,000 end users. An undisclosed number of Vantaa employees will also join GIBa as part of the agreement. The contract begins January 1, 2015. - Computerworld UK reported the UK Department of Health is expected to award IBM (IBM) a contract worth up to GBP 400 million ($628 million) to support the National Health Service (NHS) electronic staff record (ESR) system. IBM has already been named a preferred bidder and is expected to take the contract over from the current provider McKesson next summer. Reportedly IBM beat out bids from Computer Sciences (CSC) and Steria after McKesson withdrew its bid. - Maximus (MMS) was awarded two new regions (North East Yorkshire and the Humber) on a contract with the United Kingdom Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). MMS will help unemployed individuals seek long-term employment and transition off welfare. The value of the work with the new regions is between $10-14 million. Work begins February 2, 2015. IT Services – Other News STAFFING – Other News (as of Thursday’s close) 1 Week Price Change UIS ACN GIB PFMT Group Average HPQ CSC ADP XRX S&P500 IBM SAPE Source: FactSet 12% 10% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% (0%) YTD Price Change SAPE HPQ XRX CSC S&P500 GIB ACN Group Average ADP IBM UIS PFMT 43% 42% 14% 14% 12% 11% 9% 7% 6% (16%) (17%) (37%) (as of Thursday’s close) 1 Week Price Change MAN KELYA TBI RHI CDI Group Average S&P500 ASGN RECN KFRC Source: FactSet 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% YTD Price Change RHI KFRC S&P500 RECN Group Average CDI ASGN TBI MAN KELYA 40% 16% 12% 7% (3%) (6%) (8%) (17%) (21%) (34%) 5 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT IT & BPO Services Noteworthy - American Systems announced its CFO Mark Danisewicz intends to retire mid-summer 2015. Mr. Danisewicz has spent 35 years with the company. American Systems indicated the company will begin a search for his replacement in January. - Unisys (UIS) appointed Peter Altabef as President and CEO, effective January 1, 2015. Mr. Altabef previously served as CEO of Perot Systems and MICROS Systems. He has also served as President of Dell Services. EARNINGS RESULTS: 12/15 – 12/19 Ticker ACN 9/13 Actual $1.13 9/14 Actual $1.29 % Change 14% Street Estimate $1.20 Above/ Below $0.09 Source: Company data, Thomson Financial, FactSet Research Systems UPCOMING INDUSTRY EVENTS Event Date Location/Info. NASSCOM Leadership Conference Feb. 1113, 2015 Mumbai, India 2015 IAOP Outsourcing Summit Feb. 1618, 2015 Phoenix, AZ IBM Investor Briefing Feb. 26 New York, NY 19th Annual N. American Shared Services & Outsourcing Week Mar. 912, 2015 Champions Gate, FL Source: Company information 6 7 ($ in billions) Price Rating 12/19/14 52 wk Low High Mkt. Cap. (Basic) Enter. Value (EV) (Basic) Rev. Growth CY14E CY15E Net Debt / TTM EBITDA Op. Margin CY14E CY15E P/E CY14E CY15E EV/ EBITDA CY14E CY15E EV/ Revenue Yield Div. CY14E CY15E FCF TTM Yield Ticker IT Service Providers Accenture 1 $90.36 22% (1%) $59.3 $55.4 6% 1% 14.4% 14.5% CGI Group, Inc. 2 43.07 47% 15% 13.5 15.6 3% 3% 12.3% 13.5% Computer Sciences Corp. 2 64.22 21% (4%) 9.0 9.9 (2%) 1% 8.6% 8.9% Cognizant 1 53.39 29% (2%) 32.5 30.6 15% 21% 18.2% 16.8% IGATE Corp. 2 37.64 32% (12%) 2.2 3.1 10% 12% 18.1% 18.3% Infosys Limited 2 32.52 30% (8%) 18.6 13.4 7% 8% 25.4% 24.4% Syntel Inc. 1 45.83 20% (6%) 3.8 3.2 10% 10% 28.4% 28.5% Wipro Limited 2 11.81 9% (17%) 29.1 27.2 10% 8% 20.9% 20.9% On Assignment, Inc. 1 31.96 23% (20%) 1.7 2.0 14% 8% 7.6% 8.1% Sapient Corporation 2 24.82 93% (0%) 3.5 3.2 13% 13% 9.1% 10.9% G P G 0.0x 19x 19x 11.0x 10.8x 1.8x 1.8x 7% 2.3% ACN 1.5 15 13 8.5 8.4 1.5 1.4 6% NA GIB.A 1.3 14 13 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.8 8% 1.4% CSC G P G G G 0.5 21 18 14.9 12.7 3.0 2.5 4% NA CTSH 2.1 19 16 10.9 9.7 2.4 2.2 1% NA IGTE 0.0 19 18 5.6 5.5 1.5 1.4 10% 3.7% INFY 0.5 16 16 11.5 10.5 3.5 3.2 6% NA SYNT 0.5 20 20 15.1 14.5 3.6 3.3 4% 1.1% WIT P G 2.0 16 14 10.3 9.4 1.1 1.0 5% NA ASGN 0.0 42 32 17.3 14.5 2.2 2.0 2% NA SAPE 0.0 2.6 16 18 14 16 9.6 13.0 8.4 12.1 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.8 6% 5% NA NA EXLS G 0.7 13 13 10.4 9.7 2.0 1.8 6% NA WNS 1.8 1.6 11% NA PFMT Business Process Outsourcing ExlService Holdings, Inc. Genpact Limited 2 2 27.75 18.99 15% 39% (11%) (0%) 0.9 4.1 0.7 4.5 8% 7% 9% 8% 15.0% 15.2% 15.7% 15.1% WNS Holdings, Inc. 1 21.00 23% (9%) 1.1 1.0 9% 11% 19.1% 18.4% P P P Performant Financial Corp 2 6.50 9% (44%) 0.3 0.3 (24%) 10% 15.0% 18.9% P 1.9 20 14 7.7 6.0 Booz Allen Hamilton 3 25.43 48% (9%) 3.8 5.1 (6%) 1% 8.4% 8.4% 16 17 10.0 10.0 1.0 10% 1.7% BAH 3 86.45 29% (6%) 2.1 3.2 (4%) 0% 6.7% 7.4% 3.7 18 16 10.5 9.7 0.9 0.9 13% NA CACI ICF International, Inc. 2 41.75 38% (6%) 0.8 0.9 11% 18% 6.9% 7.9% G G G P G G G 3.2 CACI International 1.3 19 15 9.5 6.9 0.9 0.7 5% NA ICFI 2.9 19 17 9.9 9.4 0.8 0.8 11% 2.9% LDOS 0.0 23 19 8.1 8.1 0.6 0.6 15% 2.9% MANT 0.0 1.9 15 18 17 16 5.6 10.1 5.5 9.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 16% 12% NA 2.2% NCIT SAIC Government Services Leidos Holdings, Inc. 3 43.62 37% (10%) 3.2 4.0 (12%) (2%) 6.7% 7.3% ManTech International 3 29.06 11% (7%) 1.1 1.0 (22%) 0% 5.3% 5.3% NCI, Inc. SAIC, Inc. 3 2 10.13 50.72 68% 68% (23%) (4%) 0.1 2.4 0.1 2.6 (5%) (5%) (2%) 2% 4.5% 6.2% 4.8% 6.3% 2062.94 19% (1%) S&P500 1.0 Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research IT/BPO Services Summary Valuation For Followed Universe SPX CGI Group (GIB) estimates and price are in Canadian Dollars; associated ticker is GIB.A Rating Legend: 1-Outperform, 2-Market Perform, 3-Underperform G = GAAP EPS P = Pro Forma EPS Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, company data, and FactSet WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT IT & BPO Services Valuation Range Information: ACN Basis and Risks: Our valuation range is $96-98, which assumes 20x our FX challenged CY2015 EPS estimate. Primary risks are pace of economic activity, notably in Europe, and increased competition from both domestic and offshore service providers. Required Disclosures To view price charts for all companies rated in this document, please go to https://www.wellsfargo.com/research or send an email to: [email protected] Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Performant Financial Corp., Booz Allen Hamilton 8 Holding Corporation, IGATE Corporation, CGI Group, Inc., NCI, Inc., ExlService Holdings, Inc., ICF International, Inc., On Assignment, Inc., Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp., CACI International Inc., ManTech International Corporation, Computer Sciences Corporation, Sapient Corporation, Infosys Ltd., Wipro Ltd., Syntel, Inc., Leidos Holdings, Inc., Genpact Ltd. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Genpact Ltd., Leidos Holdings, Inc., Sapient Corporation, Accenture plc, Computer Sciences Corporation, ManTech International Corporation, CACI International Inc., Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp., On Assignment, Inc., WNS Holdings Ltd., IGATE Corporation, Performant Financial Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and/or its affiliates, have beneficial ownership of 1% or more of any class of the common stock of NCI, Inc., On Assignment, Inc. On Assignment, Inc., Computer Sciences Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services to On Assignment, Inc., Computer Sciences Corporation. On Assignment, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided nonsecurities services to On Assignment, Inc. An affiliate of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from On Assignment, Inc., Computer Sciences Corporation, ManTech International Corporation, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp., CACI International Inc., Genpact Ltd. in the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from Computer Sciences Corporation, On Assignment, Inc. in the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in On Assignment, Inc., IGATE Corporation, Computer Sciences Corporation, ManTech International Corporation, CACI International Inc., Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp., Leidos Holdings, Inc., Infosys Ltd., Syntel, Inc., Wipro Ltd. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an affiliate of Leidos Holdings, Inc., Genpact Ltd., Science Applications International Corp., NCI, Inc., ExlService Holdings, Inc. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, or any of its affiliates, has beneficial ownership of 5.3% of any class of common stock of On Assignment, Inc. Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT ACN: Primary risks are pace of economic activity, notably in Europe, and increased competition from both domestic and offshore service providers. ASGN: Risks include sensitivity to general macroeconomic conditions, near-term movements in information technology demand, and the potential for integration risks from steady pace acquisitions. BAH: In our view, uneven timing of government client spending decisions is the biggest risk to consistently executing on the financial model. In addition, BAH, in general, has higher priced offering, potentially putting them at risk given the current intense focus on price by their government clients. BAH also has notable financial leverage after recent special dividends. CACI: Risks include continued slow client funding, intensified competition, sustained pricing pressure, and integration risk around the large Six3 deal. CSC: Risks include delays in federal government contract awards (~30% of revenue) and the impact of the economy on discretionary spending and longer-term deal signings. Other factors are a highly competitive ITO market, offshore cannibalization, and historic execution issues. CTSH: Risks to our valuation range include a large exposure to the now soft financial services, healthcare payer, and pharmaceutical verticals, risk of a meaningful pullback in the global economy, potential new U.S. visa limitations, and acquisition integration given the large TriZetto deal. EXLS: Risks to our valuation range include client concentration (top 5 ~35% of revenue), the pace of client decision-making, acquisition integration risk, and political sensitivity. G: Risks include the need to continue expansion/ penetration of the faster growing non-GE business, pace of client decisions/ conversions, ability to attain qualified personnel, and price paid and assimilation of potential acquisitions. GIB.A: Risks to our valuation range include acquisition integration (although management's track record is good, in our view), uncertain economic conditions, and U.S. Federal and State & Local government spending concerns. ICFI: Risks to our valuation range include the uneven timing and uncertain outlook of federal government funding, M&A integration, and increasing competition as the company moves further into newer commercial and international markets. IGTE: Risks include unfavorable FX, macroeconomic uncertainty, notable financial leverage, and possible operational/management unevenness as the new CEO's strategy is put in place. INFY: Risks include visibility concerns, rising pricing pressure (especially in the legacy ADMO business), macroeconomic concerns, and FX movement. LDOS: Risks include continued sensitivity to federal spending including intense price pressure, and challenges in the commercial health and energy businesses. MANT: Risks include exposure and uncertain timing of in-theatre support contracts (~30% of revenue), acquisition integration, concentrated ownership with two classes of stock impacting voting power, and the vagaries of having the U.S. federal government as a client. NCIT: Risks include the uneven and uncertain timing of government funding, continuing DoD budget funding pressure, and acquisition integration risk given management's stated intent to again pursue M&A. In addition, NCIT still faces declines in their core revenue base given the increasingly competitive, and price sensitive, market. Also, the founder owns about 37% of the company and controls about 85% of the voting rights limiting interest by strategic investors. PFMT: Risk is primarily the timing, success, and financial characteristics of the RAC re-compete that could influence if there is a further reduction in CY14 and out-year estimates. Other risks include the transitioning market for guaranteed student loan issuance, dependence on two major federal government contracts, and potential share overhang (pre-IPO investor owns ~30% of shares outstanding). SAIC: Risks include pressure on federal government spending including that caused by Sequestration, intense price pressure, and the need to mature a new management team and operating model. SAPE: Risks include failure to achieve regulatory approvals for the Publicis purchase transaction, and to a lesser extent a sharp deterioration in the pace of discretionary spending. SYNT: Risks include SYNT's need to grow clients beyond the top 3. SYNT does face difficult operating margin comparisons in 2014. Also, the Chairman's family controls about 60% of the shares limiting share liquidity. WIT: Risks include potential economic weakness, unfavorable FX, and risk of protectionist measures. Additionally, any effort to increase ADS float could lead to a contraction in the premium over the local shares. WNS: Risks to our valuation range include customer concentration, lumpy sales, uneven FX gains/losses, and relatively high employee turnover. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL 9 IT & BPO Services WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading. As of: December 19, 2014 45% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 45% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. 53% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 32% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies. 2% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 21% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies. Important Disclosure for International Clients EEA – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. 10 Wells Fargo Securities' IT/BPO Services Weekly WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Australia – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is exempt from the requirements to hold an Australian financial services license in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is regulated under U.S. laws which differ from Australian laws. Any offer or documentation provided to Australian recipients by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC in the course of providing the financial services will be prepared in accordance with the laws of the United States and not Australian laws. Canada – This report is distributed in Canada by Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a registered investment dealer in Canada and member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). This report has not been prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements. Hong Kong – This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited (“WFSAL”), a Hong Kong incorporated investment firm licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“the SFC”) to carry on types 1, 4, 6 and 9 regulated activities (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of The Laws of Hong Kong), “the SFO”). This report is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, any person other than professional investors (as defined in the SFO). Any securities and related financial instruments described herein are not intended for sale, nor will be sold, to any person other than professional investors (as defined in the SFO). The author or authors of this report is or are not licensed by the SFC. Professional investors who receive this report should direct any queries regarding its contents to Mark Jones at WFSAL (email: [email protected] ). Japan – This report is distributed in Japan by Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd, registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau to conduct broking and dealing of type 1 and type 2 financial instruments and agency or intermediary service for entry into investment advisory or discretionary investment contracts. This report is intended for distribution only to professional investors (Tokutei Toushika) and is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, ordinary customers (Ippan Toushika). The ratings stated on the document are not provided by rating agencies registered with the Financial Services Agency of Japan (JFSA) but by group companies of JFSA-registered rating agencies. These group companies may include Moody’s Investors Services Inc., Standard & Poor’s Rating Services and/or Fitch Ratings. Any decisions to invest in securities or transactions should be made after reviewing policies and methodologies used for assigning credit ratings and assumptions, significance and limitations of the credit ratings stated on the respective rating agencies’ websites. About Wells Fargo Securities Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including but not limited to Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Institutional Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Prime Services, LLC, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a member of IIROC and CIPF, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information. The information in this report has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, to be reliable, but Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not represent that this information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, at this time, and are subject to change without notice. For the purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority's rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. Each of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks. Copyright © 2014 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE 11
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