Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report
Transcription
Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report
Financial Condition Report Concept Paper Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A OVERVIEW ............................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 2 Applicability .................................................................................................... 1 3 Legal provisions ............................................................................................. 2 4 Effective date ................................................................................................. 2 5 Related Legal and Policy Documents ............................................................ 2 6 Interpretation .................................................................................................. 3 7 Policy document superseded ......................................................................... 3 PART B ANALYSES IN THE FCR .......................................................................... 4 8 General requirements .................................................................................... 4 9 Nature of business ......................................................................................... 6 10 Experience analysis ....................................................................................... 6 11 Asset-liability management ............................................................................ 8 12 Capital adequacy and threats to financial condition ....................................... 9 13 Reinsurance or retakaful arrangements ....................................................... 10 14 Distribution of surplus ................................................................................... 11 15 Qard ............................................................................................................. 11 16 Management of estate in participating life business ..................................... 12 PART C REPORTING ........................................................................................... 13 17 Reporting to the board ................................................................................. 13 18 Reporting to the Bank .................................................................................. 13 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................... 14 APPENDIX 1 POLICY DOCUMENT SUPERSEDED .......................................... 14 APPENDIX 2 GUIDANCE ON CONDUCTING DST ............................................ 15 1 General Procedures ..................................................................................... 15 2 Modelling ...................................................................................................... 16 3 Projection Period .......................................................................................... 17 4 Development of the Base Scenario .............................................................. 18 5 Development of the Adverse Scenarios and Second Order Effects ............. 18 Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report This concept paper (CP) outlines the proposed standards and guidance with respect to the preparation of the Financial Condition Report (FCR), as set out as one of the duties of the appointed actuary in the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties. The current requirements on the FCR under the Guidelines on Financial Condition Report (BNM/RH/GL 003-17) (applicable to life insurers) will continue to be in force under the Financial Services Act 2013 until the proposed standards and guidance in this CP have been finalised. This CP seeks to promote a holistic assessment of the threats to an insurer or takaful operator and the timely presentation of the assessment to the board, in order for the board to make risk-informed decisions. The CP also provides principle-based guidance on the use of the Dynamic Solvency Test (DST) as a tool for assessing the insurer or takaful operator’s financial position. Key changes from current requirements When the proposed requirements in the CP are finalised and take effect, they will supersede the Guidelines on Financial Condition Report (BNM/RH/GL 003-17). This CP proposes the following enhancements to the expectations relating to the preparation of the FCR: 1. Further elaboration of the requirements in respect of general insurers and takaful operators; 2. The requirement for the appointed actuary to present the FCR to the board within 3 months of financial year end; 3. Enhancements arising from updates to the Bank’s requirements on capital adequacy, takaful operational framework and the management of participating life business; and 4. Revised expectations on the use of the DST as a tool for the appointed actuary to measure the impact of medium- to long-term risks, which: complement shorter-term stress testing requirements, as set out in Guidelines on Stress Testing for insurers; consider the wider impact of financial and non-financial risks beyond the setting of the Individual Target Capital Level (refer to Guidelines on Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) for insurers ); and provide flexibility for the appointed actuary to apply his judgment on the parameters used. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report The Bank invites written comments on this CP. Please support each comment with a clear rationale, accompanying evidence or illustration, as appropriate. In addition, all insurers and takaful operators are invited to respond to the specific questions set out in this CP. Responses must be submitted by 27 February 2015 to: Pengarah Jabatan Dasar Kewangan Pruden Bank Negara Malaysia Jalan Dato' Onn 50480 Kuala Lumpur Email: [email protected] Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 PART A Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 1/19 OVERVIEW 1 Introduction 1.1 Policy Objective This policy document outlines standards and guidance on the preparation of the Financial Condition Report (FCR), being one of the appointed actuary’s duties specified in paragraph 9.1(b) of the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties and the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties (for reinsurers and retakaful operators). The FCR provides the appointed actuary’s overall investigation results, assessments, independent opinions and recommendations to the board on various aspects of the licensed person’s financial condition, including any significant threats to the financial condition of the licensed person and potential mitigation measures for such threats. 1.2 Scope of Policy This policy document sets out(i) minimum areas of analyses that need to be considered by the appointed actuary in preparing the FCR; (ii) minimum reporting time frame for presentation of the FCR to the board and submission to the Bank; and (iii) guidance on conducting the Dynamic Solvency Test (DST). 2 Applicability 2.1 This policy document applies to the appointed actuary of(i) insurers licensed under the Financial Services Act 2013 (FSA); and (ii) takaful operators licensed under the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 (IFSA). Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 3 Legal provisions 3.1 The requirements in this policy document are specified pursuant to: (i) sections 47(1), 76 and 143 of the FSA; and (ii) sections 57(1), 85 and 155 of IFSA. 4 Effective date 4.1 This policy document takes effect(i) 2/19 for a licensed person whose financial year commences on 1 January, on and from 1 January 2015 in respect of its FCR prepared for 2015 and thereafter, for subsequent financial years; and (ii) for a licensed person whose financial year commences other than on 1 January, on and from the commencement date of its financial year in 2015 in respect of its FCR prepared for 2015 and thereafter, for subsequent financial years. S 5 Related Legal and Policy Documents 5.1 This policy document must be read together with the following policy documents as may be amended by the Bank from time to time: (i) Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties; (ii) Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties (for reinsurers and retakaful operators; (iii) Risk-Based Capital Framework for Insurers; (iv) Management of Participating Life Policy Business; (v) Guidelines on Takaful Operational Framework; and (vi) Financial Reporting for Takaful Operators. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 3/19 6 Interpretation 6.1 The terms and expressions used in this policy document shall have the same meanings assigned to them in the FSA and IFSA unless otherwise defined in this document. S 6.2 For the purposes of this policy document: „‟S‟‟ denotes a standard, requirement or specification that must be complied with. Failure to comply may result in one or more enforcement actions; „‟G‟‟ denotes guidance which may consist of such information, advice or recommendation intended to promote common understanding and sound industry practices which are encouraged to be adopted. “board” means the board of directors of a licensed person, or a committee of the board where the responsibilities of the board set out in this policy document have been delegated to such committee. “licensed person” collectively refers to a licensed insurer and licensed takaful operator, unless otherwise specified. “senior management” refers to the chief executive officer and senior officers of a licensed person. 7 Policy documents superseded 7.1 The policy documents listed in Appendix 1 will be superseded by this policy document when it takes effect as set out in paragraph 4.1. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 PART B S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 4/19 ANALYSES IN THE FCR 8 General requirements 8.1 The FCR serves to provide the board with critical insights into the developments of a licensed person’s risk profile and the options available to mitigate identified threats to the licensed person’s financial condition. As such, an appointed actuary must provide in the FCR, the results of his overall investigations into the licensed person’s financial condition by addressing the following areas: (i) the licensed person’s current and expected future financial condition; (ii) significant risks and threats to the licensed person’s current and expected future financial condition; (iii) options and recommendations proposed to the board to mitigate such risks and threats; (iv) actions taken by senior management in response to recommendations in previous FCRs, as well as the extent to which these actions have effectively addressed the concerns; and (v) any other significant findings from the appointed actuary’s investigations. S 8.2 In order to support the results of the overall investigations referred to in paragraph 8.1, the appointed actuary must include in the FCR his assessments and independent opinions, with recommendations where relevant, on key areas impacting the risk profile of the licensed person. These key areas must include the licensed person’s: (i) nature of business; (ii) experience analysis; (iii) asset-liability management; (iv) capital adequacy and threats to its financial condition; (v) reinsurance or retakaful arrangements; (vi) qard in respect of a takaful operator; Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 5/19 (vii) distribution of surplus; and (viii) management of estate in participating life business. S 8.3 The appointed actuary must include other areas not specified in paragraph 8.2 in his assessment if, in the appointed actuary’s professional opinion, such areas are relevant to the licensed person’s financial condition and are necessary in providing the board with a complete understanding of the licensed person’s financial condition. S 8.4 As required under paragraph 9.11 of the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties, the appointed actuary must, in the FCR, also inform the board of all factors, including any significant limitations identified in the course of verification performed by the appointed actuary 1 that may have affected the results of his assessments. These factors may include: (i) the credibility, accuracy and completeness of data used for investigations; (ii) limitations of information systems or any models used for investigations; (iii) availability of resources; (iv) any reliance placed on input from other parties; and (v) any actual or potential conflict of interest in the preparation of the FCR, such as where the appointed actuary holds other positions of responsibility in the licensed person2, and how the conflict has been resolved or avoided. 1 2 As required in paragraph 9.1(d) of the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties, the appointed actuary must apply the appropriate tests to reasonably satisfy himself of the completeness and accuracy of the current database of business used in preparing the FCR. As required in paragraph 9.8 of the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties, the appointed actuary must have taken reasonable steps to avoid actual and potential conflicts of interest in the course of carrying out his duties. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 6/19 9 Nature of business 9.1 In the FCR, the appointed actuary must make an assessment and provide his opinion on the impact of the current and emerging nature of the licensed person’s business on its risk profile. In his assessment, the appointed actuary must consider the following: (i) business in force and new business volumes for each insurance or takaful fund; (ii) new products and revisions to existing products, including significant risks to the financial soundness of the licensed person arising from such products; (iii) changes to the licensed person’s distribution strategy, underwriting standards and investment strategy; (iv) external factors, including economic, legal and regulatory, social, demographic and consumer behavioural factors; (v) for takaful business, any impact arising from the implementation of or changes made to the operational model of the takaful business; and (vi) any other relevant areas relating to the nature of the licensed person’s business. 10 S Experience analysis 10.1 The appointed actuary must provide an experience analysis in the FCR, together with his opinion on: (i) the appropriateness of best estimate assumptions previously set; (ii) significant trends, if any, in the actual experience over the past years; (iii) deviations in actual experience from the previous best estimate assumptions; and (iv) the underlying reasons for any material deviations of actual experience from the previous best estimate assumptions. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 7/19 10.2 The experience analysis for all insurance or takaful funds by the appointed actuary must take into consideration the key risk drivers of the business, including all related expenses. G 10.3 For life business and family takaful business, the key risk drivers should include: (i) mortality; (ii) morbidity; (iii) persistency; and (iv) investment returns. G 10.4 For general business and general takaful business, the experience analysis by the appointed actuary may also include the investigation of changes in exposure and patterns or trends in claims. Key risk drivers should be analysed at an appropriate level of granularity. This should include an analysis based on: (i) class of business (for example, motor, fire, residential or commercial risks); S (ii) claim types (for example, property damage or liability claims); (iii) geographical location; and (iv) year of origin (for example, the underwriting year or accident year). 10.5 In 8 relation to the analyses of expenses in paragraph 10.2, the appointed actuary must provide an assessment of the level of expense overruns and any anticipated expense overruns. The related expenses must be categorised (as applicable) by: (i) fund; (ii) line of business; (iii) initial and renewal business; (iv) direct and indirect expenses; and (v) allocated and unallocated loss adjustment expenses. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 8/19 10.6 Based 8 on the experience analysis for life business and family takaful business, the appointed actuary must provide an assessment of the surplus arising for each source of surplus in each insurance or takaful fund, to demonstrate the financial impact of the deviations between assumptions previously set and actual experience. S 10.7 The appointed actuary must also include an opinion on product pricing in the FCR, as required in paragraph 9.9 of the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties. S 10.8 For investment-linked insurance and takaful business, the appointed actuary’s opinion on product pricing must address the long-term sustainability of policy owner or participant unit account to meet future costs of insurance or tabarru charges and other relevant charges and fees imposed. G 10.9 The appointed actuary should consider the following factors which may lead to non-sustainability of unit account resulting in possible early termination of investment-linked insurance and takaful policy ahead of the maturity date: (i) inadequate controls leading to inappropriate pricing for additional benefits such as not charging additional premiums when it is necessary; (ii) prolonged poor investment performance of the unit fund; (iii) significant partial withdrawals and premium holidays; and (iv) revisions to the cost of insurance or tabarru changes due to poor claims experience, as well as any revisions to other fees and charges imposed by the insurer and takaful operator from time to time, without corresponding increase in premium or contribution amounts. 11 S Asset-liability management 11.1 In the FCR, the appointed actuary must provide an assessment and provide an opinion on the appropriateness of the licensed person’s overall investment policy and asset-liability management policy, taking into account the liability Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 9/19 profile and risk appetite of the licensed person. S 11.2 The appointed actuary’s assessment for purposes of paragraph 11.1 must consider the following areas: (i) the strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation of each fund, including specific investment strategies for any products with unique features; (ii) the characteristics of the licensed person’s liability cashflows, including the nature, term, currency, amount and timing of such cashflows; (iii) any options and guarantees in the licensed person’s product features; (iv) for participating life business, the manner in which policyholders’ reasonable expectations are managed and their impact on bonus revisions; (v) the effectiveness of specific risk mitigation measures taken by the licensed person (for example, hedging or reinsurance arrangements); (vi) key risks arising from any mismatches between the licensed person’s investment strategy and the characteristics of its liability cashflows; and (vii) the availability and adequacy of surplus capital in the respective insurance or takaful funds to withstand such mismatched risks. 12 S Capital adequacy and threats to financial condition 12.1 The appointed actuary must provide in the FCR, an opinion on the adequacy of the licensed person’s capital position. In providing this opinion, the appointed actuary must conduct a DST and take into consideration the results of the DST as well as the impact of any significant movements of its Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) over the past financial year. S 12.2 For the purposes of his opinion referred to in paragraph 12.1, the appointed actuary must identify significant threats to the licensed person’s financial condition, based on his understanding of the licensed person’s business profile, covering both financial and non-financial risks. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 10/19 12.3 For financial risks, the appointed actuary must use the DST as a tool to demonstrate the impact of such risks to the licensed person’s financial condition. For non-financial risks, the appointed actuary must use his judgement to determine whether the impacts of such risks are best demonstrated through the DST or through alternative approaches. S 12.4 The results of the DST must be appended with the FCR to support the appointed actuary’s opinion on the adequacy of the licensed person’s capital position over the projection period of the DST, and any recommendations for senior management’s action. G 12.5 Guidance for conducting the DST is set out in Appendix 2. 13 S Reinsurance or retakaful arrangements 13.1 The appointed actuary must provide an assessment and his opinion in the FCR on the overall suitability of the licensed person’s reinsurance or retakaful arrangements in relation to its liabilities. S 13.2 In undertaking the assessment of reinsurance or retakaful arrangements under paragraph 13.1, the appointed actuary must consider the following areas: (i) the appropriateness of the reinsurance or retakaful arrangements with respect to the relevant product lines; (ii) the financial position of the reinsurer or retakaful operator; (iii) the appropriateness of the level of retention of risks; (iv) an assessment of the credit risk and any concentration risks arising from the reinsurance or retakaful arrangements, especially where such arrangements are made with related companies; and (v) the insurer’s ability for claim recovery under a reinsurance or retakaful contract, taking into account legal opinions provided, if any. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 14 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 11/19 Distribution of surplus 14.1 The appointed actuary must include in the FCR his recommendations to the board on the distribution of surplus as specified in the policy document on Appointed Actuary: Appointment and Duties. S 14.2 For licensed life insurers carrying on participating life business, the appointed actuary must append the results from the annual bonus recommendation report as required in the policy document on Management of Participating Life Policy Business. S 14.3 For licensed takaful operators, the appointed actuary’s recommendation on the distribution of surplus from the Participants’ Risk Fund (PRF) must include an elaboration of: (i) the different types of distribution made and the rationale for the amount recommended for distribution; (ii) the impact of the distribution on the financial position of the takaful funds; (iii) the methods used in determining the distribution (for example, whether differentiated by product lines or cohorts of participants); and (iv) the amount of surplus retained in the PRF and the factors considered in determining the amount. 15 S Qard 15.1 For licensed takaful operators, the appointed actuary must provide an assessment and opinion in the FCR: (i) on the repayment of qard to the licensed takaful operator in the case of qard provided to rectify a previous deficit in the PRF; or (ii) the possibility of the PRF requiring qard in the future, taking into account the results of the DST, irrespective of whether qard has been provided to rectify deficit. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 12/19 15.2 The appointed actuary’s assessment in paragraph 15.1 must include an elaboration on: (i) the causes of the deficit in the PRF or sub-funds; (ii) the impact of the qard given and repayment of the qard on the financial position of the licensed takaful operators or PRF; and (iii) the ability of the PRF to repay qard to the licensed takaful operator where there is qard outstanding in the PRF, including circumstances in which qard is deemed irrecoverable3. 16 S 16.1 Management of estate in participating life business For licensed life insurers carrying on participating life business, the appointed actuary must provide an opinion in the FCR on the overall suitability of the use of estates, taking into account the requirements in the policy document on Management of Participating Life Policy Business. 3 Such assessment should take into account requirements in the Guidelines on Takaful Operational Framework and Financial Reporting for Takaful Operators. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 PART C 17 S Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 13/19 REPORTING Reporting to the board 17.1 The appointed actuary must present the FCR to the board no later than three (3) months after the end of each financial year. Question 1: The Bank would like to request the board to provide details on how the FCR is currently used in business and capital planning etc. Question 2: The Bank would like to request the board to comment on any constraints faced by the board in its deliberation of the FCR. 18 S Reporting to the Bank 18.1 The FCR must be submitted to the Bank no later than three (3) months after the end of each financial year. S 18.2 Any documentation supporting the FCR but which is not included as part of the FCR must be made available to the Bank for inspection upon request. The requirement of a shorter time frame for reporting to the board of 3 months (reduced from 6 months) is intended to facilitate timely and effective identification of risks with sufficient time to implement the necessary mitigating measures. Question 3: Please comment on any specific operational challenges that your insurer would face in complying with the 3-month reporting requirement, and the expected time required to address these challenges prior to the effective date of compliance. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 14/19 APPENDICES Appendix 1 Policy document superseded 1. Financial Condition Report (BNM/RH/GL 003-17) issued on 11 August 2007 Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Appendix 2 Prudential Financial Policy Department 15/19 Guidance on conducting DST 1 General Procedures 1.1 The DST: (i) Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report projects the financial position of a licensed person into the future, allowing for variations in both the experience of the licensed person and the external economic environment; and (ii) allows identification of significant risks and the assessment of possible risk mitigation measures. 1.2 The DST should cover the following: (i) a review of the recent and current financial position of the licensed person in respect of (a) an analysis of trends in its financial statements; (b) investigations into the circumstances and key factors contributing to those trends; and (c) a comparison of the previous year’s DST projections against recent actual experience to validate whether any previously selected base and/or adverse scenarios are emerging; (ii) development of the base scenario based on projection of the licensed person’s business plan under the assumptions representing the best estimate of the future experience, the licensed person’s actual experience and the external economic environment; (iii) development of adverse scenarios based on the identified risk categories and analysis of their impact; and (iv) identification and assessment of possible risk mitigation measures and modelling of such measures, where possible, to provide an assessment of their effectiveness. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 16/19 2 Modelling 2.1 The DST projection model should reproduce key elements from the balance sheet, revenue account and capital adequacy measures for the period of the projection. These elements should be consistent with one another and from year to year. 2.2 The projection model may be deterministic or stochastic or a combination of both. The types of model should be selected based on the risk to be modelled and the availability of reliable stochastic models for that area. 2.3 Where stochastic models are used, care should be taken to ensure: (i) the calibration time period encompasses periods of adverse experience; (ii) proper fit of assumed distribution to the modelled phenomena; and (iii) results are checked using reasonableness tests and supported with qualitative assessments. 2.4 Some tests for the accuracy and reasonableness of the model should include: (i) projection based on an earlier year’s position to the most recent financial year end and comparison with the latest annual statement; and (ii) reasonableness checks on the relativities of the model’s output under various scenarios. 2.5 Comments on the level of model risk and how this has been accounted for in the projections. Models used should be fit for their purpose. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 3 Projection Period 3.1 The choice of the projection period should consider the following: (i) 17/19 the projection period should be sufficiently long to model and capture the effect of adverse trends in experience and the time taken for the risk mitigation measures to be put in place; and (ii) the projection period should be sufficiently short to maintain the confidence in the assumptions for the projection, including those provided by other professionals involved in the DST exercise. 3.2 An example for paragraph 3.1(i) is the deterioration of mortality experience which may take at least two to three years for the trend to be recognised, and the implementation of a new premium scale as a mitigation measure may not be feasible immediately due to other factors, such as the consistency with the type of products the licensed person sells and the product cycle4 for these products. 3.3 Significant impact of adverse events, including second order effects, should not be overlooked in the projection just because they fall outside the typical business planning period. 3.4 The availability of key data required throughout the projection is an important consideration. Any assumptions made in the absence of the data should be clearly documented and its impact explained. 3.5 The projection period for life insurers and family takaful operators may typically lie between 5 and 6 years, while for general insurers and general takaful operators the projection period may typically be between 3 and 4 years. 4 Product cycle refers to the period before major changes are made to a product. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 18/19 4 Development of the Base Scenario 4.1 The assumptions used for the base scenario should generally be consistent with the assumptions used for the business plan of the licensed person. Any differences should be identified and explained. The differences may arise due to various reasons, for example: (i) an event that occurred which was not captured by the business plan; or (ii) differences in opinion between the appointed actuary and the business plan assumptions. 4.2 All underlying elements of the base scenario should be consistent. For example, if the projection assumes rapid expansion of the licensed person’s business, the costs involved, such as additional capital requirements, staff recruitment, expansion of distribution channels, development of systems and infrastructure should be accounted for. 4.3 In developing the base scenario, there may be reliance on estimates provided by other specialists within the licensed person. It is important that the appointed actuary understands the process behind the derivation of these estimates and applies a reasonableness test on the projection result. 5 Development of the Adverse Scenarios and Second Order Effects 5.1 Adverse scenarios should be developed through determination of risk categories that are relevant to the licensed person. 5.2 The determination of the severity of the adverse scenarios should take into account the actual experience and assumptions relative to the base scenario. Issued on: 24 December 2014 BNM/RH/CP 029-8 5.3 Prudential Financial Policy Department Concept Paper on Financial Condition Report 19/19 The adverse scenarios should incorporate second order effects that may arise due to changes in one or more interdependent risk factors. The second order effects are spill over effects that may arise due to the original adverse scenario which may also have further adverse impact on the licensed person’s financial condition. 5.4 A distinction should be drawn between adverse scenarios which test: (i) the impact of deterioration in experience leading to a revision in the long term best estimate and valuation assumptions; (ii) the impact of deterioration in experience without a change in the long term best estimate and valuation assumptions; and (iii) 5.5 the impact of a change in the valuation assumptions. The adverse scenarios should be realistic to ensure the integrity of the DST results. For example, in the adverse scenario of deterioration in mortality experience, it may be unrealistic to revise the valuation assumption immediately in the first projection year, as the experience has not fully developed yet. A more realistic approach would be to model several years of poor mortality experience, which eventually settles at a ‘long term best estimate’ assumption in the final projection year. Under this approach, the valuation assumption is only revised in the final year. 5.6 Risk mitigation measures in response to adverse scenarios should be highlighted and modelled in the DST projection, where possible. The results should be considered with and without modelled risk mitigation measures to assess the effectiveness of such measures. In addition, the inclusion of risk mitigation measures should take into account any practical (including legal and operational) constraints on the ability of the insurer to implement such measures. Examples of risk mitigation measures include discontinuance of a product line, capital injection, bonus revisions, and increases in premium rates. Issued on: 24 December 2014