Daily Market Commentary

Transcription

Morning Express
23 December 2014
Focus of the Day
Indices
Container Shipping Sector
Weekly container shipping commentary
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA [email protected]
UP
MP
OP
The Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) announced that member container lines
should implement a combined rate hike of US$1,000/FEU from 15th January 2015. The
SCFI declined 1.3% WoW for the week ended 19th December 2014. Freight rate on the
Asia-Europe tradelane fell 9.1% WoW despite the high load factor and cancellation of
voyages by carriers during the week. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM
recommendation due to our cautious view on the sector.
Close
HSI
23,409
H Shares
11,744
SH A
3,277
SH B
285
SZ A
1,476
SZ B
1,002
DJIA
17,959
S&P 500
2,079
Nasdaq
4,781
FTSE
6,577
CAC
4,254
DAX
9,866
Source: Bloomberg
1d %
1.26
3.02
0.62
-2.58
-3.65
-0.98
0.87
0.38
0.34
0.48
0.30
0.81
Ytd %
0.44
8.58
47.98
12.18
33.69
15.38
8.34
12.45
14.48
-2.55
-0.97
3.28
Close
60.11
1,174.55
15.64
6,400.00
120.17
1.56
1.22
3m %
-38.01
-3.99
-12.16
-6.36
-9.39
-4.95
-4.87
Ytd %
-45.75
-2.58
-19.69
-13.04
-12.37
-5.93
-11.07
bps change
HIBOR
0.39
US 10 yield
2.16
Source: Bloomberg
3m
0.02
-0.41
6m
0.02
-0.45
Indicators
Brent
Gold
Silver
Copper
JPY
GBP
EURO
HSI Technical
HSI
50 d MA
200 d MA
14 d RSI
Short Sell (HK$m)
Source: Bloomberg
23,409
23,512
23,382
50
10,013
BOCOM Int'l Corporate Access
29 Dec China Everbright Bank (6818.HK)
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
23 December 2014
Container Shipping Weekly
UP
Weekly container shipping commentary
MP
OP
Container shipping companies - Valuation summary
Company
Name
BBG
code
Sh. Price
22 Dec 14
Rating Target
Price
+/-
–––––– PER ––––––
2013 2014E 2015E
–––––– PBR ––––––
2013 2014E 2015E
(LC)
(LC)
(%)
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
(X)
China COSCO
1919 HK
3.88 NEUTRAL
3.10
(20.1)
133.8
N.A.
14.7
1.30
1.24
1.13
CSCL
NOL
2866 HK
NOL SP
2.38 NEUTRAL
0.79
SELL
2.1
0.73
(11.8)
(7.6)
N.A.
N.A.
260.8
N.A.
13.0
28.3
0.91
0.72
0.85
0.87
0.80
0.84
OOIL
316 HK
44.8
BUY
50.5
12.7
76.4
10.9
11.2
0.80
0.76
0.72
SITC
1308 HK
4.37 NEUTRAL
Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates
4.03
(7.8)
12.9
11.3
8.8
1.95
1.76
1.56
News flow – TSA said GRI of US$400/FEU should be implemented in January.
th
Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) announced on 18
The
December that
The Transpacific Stabilization
Agreement (TSA) announced that
member container lines should
implement a combined rate hike of
US$1,000/FEU from 15th January
2015.
The SCFI declined 1.3% WoW for the
week ended 19th December 2014.
Freight rate on the Asia-Europe
tradelane fell 9.1% WoW despite the
high load factor and cancellation of
voyages by carriers during the week.
We maintain our MARKET PERFORM
recommendation due to our
cautious view on the sector.
th
member container lines should implement a GRI of US$600/FEU from 15 January
2015 on Transpacific eastbound voyages.
Simultaneously, container lines will also
implement a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) of US$400/FEU, effectively adding up to
US$1,000/FEU for the coming round of recommended rate hike.
Compared with
the Asia-Europe tradelane, rate hike on the Transpacific tradelane should have a
better chance to stick, in our view.
To alleviate the pressure from declining freight
th
rates, carriers have also proposed rate hike for implementation on 15 January 2015
for Asia-Europe tradelane westbound voyages, roughly in the range of US$750 –
1,000/TEU.
th
Reality – SCFI teetered down 1.3% WoW for the week ended 19 December.
The
spot Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased 1.3% WoW to 1,120.33, due
largely to the 9.1% WoW decline in freight rate to US$1,230/TEU on the Asia-Europe
tradelane after the implementation of GRI the week before.
This was despite the
cancellation of voyages by carriers during the week, as well as a reported increase in
load factor to over 90%.
In contrast, freight rate on the Transpacific tradelane was
essentially flat last week for cargoes heading West Coast destinations, but up 4.9%
WoW for East Coast destinations as cargo owners put more containers through East
Coast destinations to avoid congestion.
Freight rates on all other routes were weak
last week.
We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation.
Share prices of the
HK-listed container shipping companies trended down again last week and
underperformed the rising benchmark indices.
We maintain our cautious view and
our MARKET PERFORM recommendation on the sector.
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9380
Morning Express
23 December 2014
Market Review
Hong Kong stocks rallied on Monday. The Hang Seng Index gained 291 points, or 1.3%, to
finish at 23,408 points. IPPs rose following media reports that the electricity reform plan
has been submitted to the State Council. Huaneng Power (902.HK) gained 4.1%. Huadian
Power (1071.HK) rose 4.6%. Datang Power (991.HK) added 3.9%. Oil companies rallied
following the rebound of crude futures last Friday. PetroChina (857.HK) rose 4.1% and
CNOOC (883.HK) jumped 4.9%. Mainland lenders posted sharp gains with CMB (3968.HK)
jumping 7.7% and MSB (1988.HK) climbing 5.8%. Among stocks that fell, Haitong
Securities (6837.HK) dropped 1.9% after announcing share placement. Peer CITIC
Securities (6030.HK) dropped 3.1%.
Hang Seng Index (1 year)
26,000
25,000
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
HS China Enterprise Index (1 year)
13,000
12,000
11,000
US stocks finished with modest gains on Monday, with the main indexes rising for the
fourth consecutive day. The S&P 500 added 7.9 points, or 0.4%, to 2,078.55, led by
technology and telecom names. The DJIA increased 154.64 points, or 0.9%, to 17,959.44.
European stocks rose. The Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.5% to finish at 341.97.
10,000
9,000
8,000
News Reaction
China to expand market pricing power of financial institutions on ample liquidity, PBOC
says. Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said China
will accelerate the reform of the interest rate market and expand the scope of market
pricing of the financial institutions in the next step. The PBOC has introduced the issuance
of certificates of deposits among the financial institutions and it will launch the issuance
of large-amount certificates of deposits for businesses and individuals.
11M14 SOEs profit growth slows to 4.5%, MOF says. The Ministry of Finance (MOF)
announced that the total revenue and gross profit growth of the national state-owned
and state-controlled enterprises slowed on a YoY basis for the first 11 months of the year.
Transportation, steel and automobile industries achieved bigger profit growth on a YoY
basis.
State Council said to introduce power grid decentralization in electricity reform plan.
The electricity reform plan was submitted to the State Council and the plan is likely to be
announced shortly. The key idea of the electricity reform plan lies on power grid
decentralization. With reference to the Shenzhen reform model, electricity will be traded
between the demand and supply sides and the electricity reform will be promoted
gradually.
PBOC is gradually withdrawing from normal forex market intervention, Yi says. Yi Gang,
vice president of the People’s Bank of China and head of the State Administration of
Foreign Exchange, said the bilateral volatility of RMB has increased since the beginning of
this year and the PBOC is gradually withdrawing from the normal foreign exchange
market intervention. The RMB exchange rate could maintain its stability at a reasonable
and balanced level.
China Mobile (941.HK)’s Nov 4G customer adds hit new high of 16.78m. China Mobile
announced that the 4G customer adds equaled 16.78m in Nov, hitting a new monthly
high. The 4G customers reached 71.23m, above the yearly target of 70m.
Shanghai A-shares (1 year)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Shenzhen A-shares (1 year)
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Morning Express
23 December 2014
Economic releases for this week - USA
Economic releases for this week - China
Date Time
Event
Survey
Prior
15-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
Source: Bloomberg
Industrial Production(MoM)
Housing Starts(k)
CPI (MoM)
CPI ex food & energy (MoM)
Initial jobless claims (k)
Leading indicators
0.7%
1,035.0
-0.1%
0.1%
89.5
0.5%
-0.1%
1,009.0
0.0%
0.2%
88.8
0.9%
Date Time
16-Dec
Event
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Survey
49.8
Prior
50.0
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Research Latest Reports
Data
22 Dec 2014
19 Dec 2014
19 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
Report
AAC Technologies (2018.HK) - Takeaways from plant visit in Changzhou
Alibaba (BABA.US) - “Double 12”, Alipay expands to offline payment
Transportation Sector - Weekly transportation news wrap
2015 Outlook - Introducing 2015 Top Picks; A Bright New Beginning
HK Property Sector - Downgrade to Market Perform; both prices and rents have overshot
Hysan (14.HK) - More opportunities than challenges in 2015
New World Development (17.HK) - High earnings visibility
Hang Lung Properties (101.HK) - Record profit in 2014E
Kerry Properties (683.HK) - Expanding its recurring income base
Auto (Outperform): Finding bright spots amid modest sector outlook
Transportation (Container Shipping: Market Perform); (Aviation: Outperform); (Logistics: Outperform): Still
challenging for container shipping; airlines to benefit from lower jet fuel prices
Telecom & Small/Mid Cap (Market Perform): Opportunities from the expansion of Shanghai-Hong Kong
Stock Connect
Technology (Market Perform): The rise of Chinese power
Steel (Market Perform): On the road to re-rating as sector bottoms out
Renewable Energy (Outperform): Improving operating environment to lift profitability
China Property (Outperform): Resetting market risk appetite
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
17 Dec 2014
Internet (Outperform): Penetration into traditional industries has just begun
Insurance (Outperform): Sector bottomed out with re-rating on the horizon
Healthcare (Outperform): Sustainable growth to continue
Energy (Market Perform): Energy world under new crude price and Stock Connect environment
Consumer Discretionary (Market Perform): Upgrade to Market Perform, but upside catalysts remain absent
17 Dec 2014
Source: Company data, BOCOM International
Analyst
Miles XIE
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D , Gu Xinyu (Connie), CPA
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Raymond Cheng, CFA, CPA, CA
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Yao Wei
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Zhiwu LI
Miles XIE
Jovi Li
Louis Sun
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM, Toni Ho, CFA, FRM, Luella
Guo
Yuan Ma Ph.D, Connie Gu, CPA
Li Wenbing
Johnson Sun, Milo Liu
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Phoebe Wong, Anita Chu
Morning Express
23 December 2014
Hang Seng Index Constituents
Company
name
Cheung Kong
Hang Lung Proper
Hengan Intl
China Shenhua-H
Hang Seng Bk
China Res Land
Cosco Pac Ltd
Henderson Land D
Aia Group Ltd
Hutchison Whampo
Kunlun Energy Co
Ind & Comm Bk-H
China Merchant
Want Want China
Sun Hung Kai Pro
New World Dev
Belle Internatio
China Coal Ene-H
Swire Pacific-A
Sands China Ltd
Clp Hldgs Ltd
Bank East Asia
Ping An Insura-H
Boc Hong Kong Ho
China Life Ins-H
Citic Pacific
China Res Enterp
Cathay Pac Air
Hong Kg China Gs
Tingyi Hldg Co
Esprit Hldgs
Bank Of Commun-H
China Petroleu-H
Hong Kong Exchng
Bank Of China-H
Wharf Hldg
Li & Fung Ltd
Hsbc Hldgs Plc
Power Assets Hol
Mtr Corp
China Overseas
Tencent Holdings
China Unicom Hon
Sino Land Co
China Res Power
Petrochina Co-H
Cnooc Ltd
China Const Ba-H
China Mobile
Lenovo Group Ltd
Hang Seng Index
BBG
code
1 HK
101 HK
1044 HK
1088 HK
11 HK
1109 HK
1199 HK
12 HK
1299 HK
13 HK
135 HK
1398 HK
144 HK
151 HK
16 HK
17 HK
1880 HK
1898 HK
19 HK
1928 HK
2 HK
23 HK
2318 HK
2388 HK
2628 HK
267 HK
291 HK
293 HK
3 HK
322 HK
330 HK
3328 HK
386 HK
388 HK
3988 HK
4 HK
494 HK
5 HK
6 HK
66 HK
688 HK
700 HK
762 HK
83 HK
836 HK
857 HK
883 HK
939 HK
941 HK
992 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
129.70
21.55
79.65
23.45
128.30
19.36
10.94
52.40
41.90
90.35
7.34
5.55
26.05
9.97
115.80
8.80
8.62
4.98
99.95
37.55
66.50
30.40
77.00
25.55
28.30
13.26
16.10
16.84
17.40
17.28
8.75
7.03
6.30
172.00
4.33
55.30
7.14
74.10
74.05
31.70
21.45
113.00
10.46
12.18
20.40
8.72
10.62
6.33
91.95
10.06
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
300,407
96,658
97,522
496,758
245,289
112,892
32,168
157,218
504,690
385,196
59,251
2,036,554
66,750
131,564
326,901
76,252
72,703
104,679
145,145
302,913
168,009
71,344
679,789
270,135
874,327
330,218
38,984
66,246
182,910
96,832
16,999
564,783
883,577
200,913
1,312,463
167,566
59,693
1,423,875
158,042
184,643
175,332
1,058,615
250,341
73,862
97,860
2,275,924
474,156
1,600,683
1,875,336
111,753
5d
chg
(%)
0.4
0.9
0.8
3.8
1.4
-0.4
3.8
2.0
-1.8
2.6
2.7
5.5
0.6
0.0
2.9
-0.6
6.2
1.4
-0.1
-8.0
2.5
1.7
6.2
-0.6
6.2
-0.7
2.9
-2.4
-0.3
1.6
-4.4
7.0
4.5
-0.8
5.9
0.2
-9.7
0.0
-0.8
1.1
-4.7
1.0
2.5
-1.3
1.7
5.7
4.7
5.1
3.4
-4.7
Ytd
chg
(%)
11.8
-12.0
-13.0
-4.1
2.1
0.7
2.8
30.3
7.7
-8.3
-46.3
5.9
-8.0
-11.0
17.7
-4.5
-0.4
14.2
10.0
-39.9
8.5
-7.5
10.9
2.8
16.7
11.8
-37.5
2.7
7.6
-22.9
-41.4
28.5
-0.5
33.0
21.3
-6.7
-13.0
-11.9
20.1
8.0
-1.6
14.2
-9.8
14.9
11.0
2.6
-26.4
8.2
14.4
6.7
23,408.6 14,449,504
1.7
0.4
Source: Bloomberg
–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
152.00
105.95
26.45
19.80
93.00
74.05
24.80
19.12
133.00
117.60
20.60
13.62
11.92
9.40
56.40
36.46
45.65
34.65
108.50
86.00
14.18
6.88
5.69
4.33
28.75
22.75
13.10
9.32
120.20
90.35
10.48
7.15
10.00
7.00
5.44
3.72
108.00
80.55
68.00
36.90
68.35
56.00
34.45
28.50
77.35
55.60
27.95
21.50
28.80
19.72
16.88
9.35
26.40
15.12
18.00
13.56
18.90
13.91
23.25
16.02
16.60
8.60
7.13
4.53
8.23
5.73
189.00
112.80
4.35
3.03
63.45
46.35
10.70
7.06
86.40
71.95
76.50
57.85
32.30
26.55
24.60
17.52
134.90
92.56
14.22
9.03
14.16
9.83
24.90
17.10
11.70
7.31
15.88
9.72
6.42
4.89
102.20
63.65
12.70
7.62
25,363.0
21,137.6
–––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2013A
2014E
2015E
(X)
(X)
(X)
7.0
8.4
8.8
12.7
13.9
15.4
27.0
25.7
21.4
8.7
9.4
9.3
14.7
14.4
13.2
7.4
10.0
8.6
14.0
12.4
11.1
8.8
16.8
16.5
26.5
20.4
18.0
8.2
11.3
10.9
9.3
9.4
8.7
5.6
5.6
5.4
15.1
15.5
14.0
24.3
24.3
20.7
9.3
14.9
13.9
6.6
10.3
9.8
N/A
12.9
12.3
38.4
61.4
35.0
11.4
14.3
13.4
14.8
14.8
14.2
18.6
15.9
15.6
10.2
10.9
10.6
15.5
13.4
12.4
11.7
11.0
10.0
23.9
19.1
16.3
9.4
9.4
8.0
21.2
68.5
42.3
22.5
19.2
11.9
26.3
24.8
23.0
29.9
27.2
22.1
80.1
49.7
26.4
6.5
6.4
6.1
8.6
9.3
10.2
42.8
39.3
29.4
5.8
5.8
5.4
7.0
14.1
12.4
9.2
14.6
12.6
12.0
10.8
10.2
2.5
10.6
18.2
12.4
17.8
16.4
7.0
7.6
6.6
38.2
35.4
26.8
15.9
15.4
13.4
8.2
13.9
13.4
8.4
8.1
7.5
9.7
10.4
11.2
6.8
7.3
8.8
5.6
5.5
5.2
12.8
13.6
13.5
15.0
16.2
14.1
9.9
11.0
10.4
Yield
P/B
(%)
2.7
3.5
2.3
4.8
4.3
2.3
2.8
1.9
1.1
2.6
3.1
N/A
3.0
2.7
2.9
4.7
N/A
2.0
3.6
4.6
3.9
3.7
1.1
4.0
1.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.9
1.6
0.8
N/A
4.8
2.1
5.6
3.2
6.6
5.1
3.5
2.9
2.3
0.2
1.9
4.1
3.7
4.6
5.4
5.9
3.4
2.4
(X)
0.8
0.8
5.9
1.3
2.2
1.3
0.9
0.6
2.3
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
9.0
0.8
0.5
2.3
0.6
0.7
7.4
1.8
1.1
2.4
1.6
2.7
0.5
0.8
1.1
3.6
4.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
9.7
1.0
0.6
1.6
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.5
11.3
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.8
4.4
3.6
1.3
Morning Express
23 December 2014
China Ent Index Constituents
Company
name
Shandong Weig-H
China Shenhua-H
Sinopharm-H
China Shipping-H
Zoomlion Heavy-H
Yanzhou Coal-H
Agricultural-H
New China Life-H
Ind & Comm Bk-H
Tsingtao Brew-H
China Com Cons-H
China Coal Ene-H
China Minsheng-H
Guangzhou Auto-H
Ping An Insura-H
Picc Property &
Great Wall Mot-H
Weichai Power-H
Aluminum Corp-H
China Pacific-H
China Life Ins-H
China Oilfield-H
Zijin Mining-H
China Natl Bdg-H
Bank Of Commun-H
Jiangxi Copper-H
China Petroleu-H
China Rail Gr-H
China Merch Bk-H
Bank Of China-H
Dongfeng Motor-H
Citic Securiti-H
Haitong Securi-H
China Telecom-H
Air China Ltd-H
Petrochina Co-H
Huaneng Power-H
Anhui Conch-H
China Longyuan-H
China Const Ba-H
China Citic Bk-H
Hang Seng China Ent Indx
BBG
code
1066 HK
1088 HK
1099 HK
1138 HK
1157 HK
1171 HK
1288 HK
1336 HK
1398 HK
168 HK
1800 HK
1898 HK
1988 HK
2238 HK
2318 HK
2328 HK
2333 HK
2338 HK
2600 HK
2601 HK
2628 HK
2883 HK
2899 HK
3323 HK
3328 HK
358 HK
386 HK
390 HK
3968 HK
3988 HK
489 HK
6030 HK
6837 HK
728 HK
753 HK
857 HK
902 HK
914 HK
916 HK
939 HK
998 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
5d
chg
(%)
Ytd
chg
(%)
6.24
23.45
27.25
5.18
5.85
6.55
3.80
35.75
5.55
52.50
9.52
4.98
9.71
7.13
77.00
15.76
40.85
33.65
3.63
35.50
28.30
13.56
2.19
7.30
7.03
13.64
6.30
6.42
18.74
4.33
10.86
27.90
18.24
4.57
6.21
8.72
10.76
26.55
7.83
6.33
6.03
27,932.56
496,757.84
75,403.34
31,482.93
61,037.28
63,287.14
1,422,264.99
146,456.55
2,036,554.42
69,087.32
234,642.72
104,679.11
422,590.70
61,004.55
679,789.23
233,697.33
141,353.01
67,364.17
90,540.92
310,355.27
874,326.66
101,238.57
83,743.35
39,412.89
564,783.40
67,759.61
883,576.65
215,011.57
481,431.60
1,312,462.74
93,571.07
410,030.50
249,233.20
369,860.94
113,141.24
2,275,923.97
163,564.90
132,964.10
62,924.93
1,600,682.86
384,563.50
-0.3
3.8
0.0
-0.6
8.5
3.0
3.5
5.0
5.5
-4.1
11.3
1.4
11.0
2.4
6.2
4.9
2.1
7.3
8.0
6.9
6.2
9.7
3.8
-1.1
7.0
0.4
4.5
6.3
11.5
5.9
-3.0
-3.1
-3.7
4.1
-1.6
5.7
9.5
-2.0
-3.2
5.1
6.2
-40.3
-4.1
22.5
-14.0
-19.2
-7.5
-0.3
37.5
5.9
-19.9
52.3
14.2
35.3
-15.9
10.9
42.4
-4.6
7.7
34.4
16.8
16.7
-43.6
31.9
-12.5
28.5
-2.6
-0.5
60.5
13.4
21.3
-10.5
31.9
35.1
16.6
7.3
2.6
53.5
-7.7
-21.6
8.2
43.2
11.2
24.8
34.5
6.3
7.4
7.3
3.9
38.2
5.7
66.8
10.0
5.4
9.9
9.9
77.4
16.2
44.3
34.9
3.9
37.3
28.8
24.5
2.3
8.4
7.1
15.2
8.2
6.6
18.9
4.4
15.2
34.0
23.2
5.2
6.7
11.7
11.6
35.7
10.3
6.4
6.2
5.8
19.1
19.7
4.0
3.5
4.9
3.0
21.1
4.3
52.0
4.9
3.7
5.9
6.7
55.6
9.4
26.1
25.8
2.5
23.6
19.7
11.7
1.6
6.7
4.5
11.6
5.7
3.0
12.1
3.0
9.6
13.7
9.5
3.1
4.2
7.3
6.1
24.0
7.1
4.9
3.6
73.2
8.7
21.9
N/A
19.5
7.0
5.5
14.9
5.6
28.6
9.6
38.4
5.9
11.7
15.5
16.8
12.3
10.3
N/A
24.1
23.9
6.3
17.9
5.1
6.5
10.6
8.6
11.0
6.5
5.8
5.6
31.0
33.2
15.9
23.3
9.7
10.5
9.3
25.9
5.6
5.5
22.4
9.4
19.8
51.3
21.9
16.6
5.3
12.7
5.6
27.6
9.1
61.4
5.6
10.7
13.4
14.1
12.3
11.5
N/A
21.8
19.1
6.6
15.8
5.5
6.4
13.6
9.3
10.4
6.5
5.8
5.9
29.0
22.0
16.0
18.2
10.4
9.8
9.7
20.1
5.5
5.5
11,744
4,816,810
4.7
8.6
11,950.0
9,159.8
8.2
8.2
Source: Bloomberg
–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
––––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2013A
2014E
2015E
(X)
(X)
(X)
Yield
P/B
(%)
(X)
18.6
9.3
16.6
14.6
17.1
17.4
5.0
11.5
5.4
24.3
8.4
35.0
5.3
8.3
12.4
13.0
9.5
11.6
N/A
18.2
16.3
7.0
16.0
5.1
6.1
13.8
10.2
9.4
5.9
5.4
5.5
24.1
17.6
14.5
11.6
11.2
9.4
9.0
14.3
5.2
5.1
1.2
4.8
1.2
0.0
3.2
0.4
N/A
0.5
N/A
N/A
2.5
2.0
2.0
3.1
1.1
1.7
2.5
0.9
N/A
1.4
1.3
4.0
N/A
2.7
N/A
4.6
4.8
1.3
4.1
5.6
2.1
N/A
0.8
2.6
0.9
4.6
4.4
1.6
0.8
5.9
N/A
2.4
1.3
2.6
0.7
0.9
0.6
1.0
2.1
1.1
3.6
1.3
0.6
1.2
1.1
2.4
2.8
3.4
1.7
1.0
2.4
2.7
1.2
1.4
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.1
2.7
2.2
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.1
0.9
7.7
3.9
1.2
Morning Express
23 December 2014
BOCOM International
11/F, Man Yee Building, 68 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong
Main: + 852 3710 3328
Fax: + 852 3798 0133
Rating System
Company Rating
www.bocomgroup.com
Sector Rating
Buy: Expect more than 20% upside in 12 months
LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months
Neutral: Expect low volatility
Sell: Expect more than 20% downside in 12 months
Outperform (“OP”): Expect more than 10% upside in 12 months
Market perform (“MP”): Expect low volatility
Underperform (“UP”): Expect more than 10% downside in 12 months
Research Team
Head of Research
@bocomgroup.com
(852) 2977 9393
raymond.cheng
(852) 2977 9384
hao.hong
(852) 2977 9212
yangqingli
Shanshan LI, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058
lishanshan
Li WAN, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051
Wanli
Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA
Strategy
Economics
Hao HONG, CFA
Banks/Network Financials
Qingli YANG
miaoxian.li
Fei WU
(852) 2977 9392
fei.wu
Tony LIU
(852) 2977 9390
xutong.liu
Property
Phoebe WONG
(852) 2977 9391
phoebe.wong
Anita CHU
(852) 2977 9205
anita.chu
Summer WANG
(852) 2977 9221
summer.wang
Shawn WU
(852) 2977 9386
shawn.wu
(852) 2977 9387
milo.liu
(852) 2977 9389
liwenbing
Consumer Staples
Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9235
alfred.lau
Luella GUO
(852) 2977 9211
luella.guo
(86) 21 6065 3606
louis.sun
(852) 2977 9209
lizhiwu
(852) 2977 9216
miles.xie
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA
(852) 2977 9380
geoffrey.cheng
Fay ZHOU
(852) 2977 9381
fay.zhou
(86) 21 6065 3675
wei.yao
Renewable Energy
Healthcare
Louis SUN
Telecom & Small/ Mid-Caps
Milo LIU
Insurance & Brokerage
Zhiwu LI
Technology
Internet
Miles XIE
Transportation & Industrial
Yuan MA, PhD
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039
yuan.ma
Connie GU, CPA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045
conniegu
(852) 2977 9243
jovi.li
Metals & Mining
Jovi LI
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8043
Miaoxian LI
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities
Consumer Discretionary
Jerry LI
@bocomgroup.com
Automobile
Wei YAO
Morning Express
23 December 2014
Analyst Certification
The authors of this report, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about any
and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (ii) no part of any of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report; (iii) no insider information/ non-public price-sensitive information in relation to
the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations were being received by the authors.
The authors of this report further confirm that (i) neither they nor their respective associates (as defined in the Code of Conduct issued by the
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior
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covered in this report; and (iii) neither they nor their respective associates have any financial interests in the stock(s) covered in this report.
Disclosure of relevant business relationships
BOCOM International Securities Limited, and/or its associated companies, has investment banking relationship with Nanjing Sinolife United
Company Limited, Magnum Entertainment Group Holdings Limited, Bank of Communications, Harbin Bank Co., Ltd., Azure Orbit International
Finance Limited, Hanhua Financial Holding Co., Ltd., Central China Securities Company Limited, China New City Commercial Development Limited,
China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited, Broad Greenstate International Company Limited, China National Culture Group Limited, Sichuan
Development Holding Co. Ltd. and Austar Lifesciences Limited within the preceding 12 months.
BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceuticals Group
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