Sampling Distributions Worksheet
Transcription
Sampling Distributions Worksheet
Sampling Distributions Worksheet – Review Chapter 9 Name_____________ 1. Taxi Fares are normally distributed with mean fare $22.27 and a standard deviation of $2.20. A) Which should have the greater probability of falling between $21 & $24 – the mean of a random sample of 10 taxi fares or the amount of a single random taxi fare? Why? The greater probability of falling between 21 and 24 would be the mean of a random 2.20 sample of 10. The spread in the sample would be smaller: ( ) vs 2.20 for the single 10 random fare. B) Which should have a greater probability of being over $24 – the mean of 10 randomly selected taxi fares or the amount of a single randomly selected taxi fare? Why? The chance of a single fare being over 24 is higher than that of a sample of 10. Same reasons as stated above. 2. Suppose a sample of 50 MP3 players is drawn randomly from a population of MP3 players and the weight, x, of each MP3 player is recorded. Prior experience has shown that the weight of a single MP3 player has a mean of 6 ounces and a standard deviation of 2.5 ounces. A) Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of x and justify your answer. The CLT states that for large samples (n>30) samples will behave approximately normal. Here n=50. B) What is the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution? x 6 oz x 2.5 0.354 50 C) What is the probability that the sample has a mean weight of less than 5 ounces? Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=6, StDev=0.354 1.2 1.0 Density 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.002365 0.2 0.0 5 P( x < 5) = 0.002 6 X normalcdf(-E99, 5, 6, 0.354) D) How would the sampling distribution of x change if the sample size, n , were increased from 50 to 100? Shape is still approximately normal. The mean and standard deviation of the sample 2.5 distribution is x 6 oz x 0.25 . The standard deviation of the sample 100 distribution of n=100 would be smaller. 3. A soft-drink bottle vendor claims that its process yields bottles with a mean internal strength of 157 psi (pounds per square inch) and a standard deviation of 3 psi and is normally distributed. As part of its vendor surveillance, a bottler strikes an agreement with the vendor that permits the bottler to sample from the vendor’s production to verify the vendor’s claim. A) Suppose the bottler randomly selects a single bottle to sample. What is the mean and standard deviation? x 157 psi x 3 psi B) What is the probability that the psi of the single bottle is 1.3 psi or more below the process mean? Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=157, StDev=3 0.14 0.12 Density 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.3324 0.04 0.02 0.00 155.7 157 X normalcdf(-E99, 155.7, 157, 3) P(x < 155.7) = 0.332 C) Suppose the bottler randomly selected 40 bottles from the last 10,000 produced. What is the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution? Because the population of bottles is approximately normal, samples will behave 3 approximately normal with x 157 psi x 0.474 . 40 D) What is the probability that the sample mean of the 40 bottles is 1.3 psi or more below the process mean? Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=157, StDev=0.474 0.9 0.8 0.7 Density 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.003048 0.2 0.1 0.0 155.7 157 X normalcdf(-E99, 155.7, 157, 0.474) P( x < 155.7) = 0.003 E) From part c, in order to reduce the standard deviation 50% (half) , how large would the sample size need to be. n = 160. In order to half the standard deviation, n would have to quadruple (times 4). 40 times 4 = 160. 4. A study of 10,000 males who smoke at least two packs of cigarettes daily shows that the mean life span is 65.3 years while the standard deviation is 3.4 years. If a sample of 40 is selected, find the probability that the mean life span of the sample is less than the retirement age of 65 years. The CLT states that samples (n > 30) will behave approximately normal. Here n = 40. 3.4 x 65.3 years x 0.537 40 Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=65.3, StDev=0.537 0.8 0.7 0.6 Density 0.5 0.4 0.2882 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 P( x < 65) = 0.288 65 65.3 X normalcdf(-E99, 65, 65.3, 0.537) 5. The U.S. Department of Transportation keeps monthly reports on airline performance. Among the data which they collect is the percentage of flights that arrive on time. For November 2006, 78% of the flights by the 12 major airlines arrive on time. For that period, what is the probability that in a random sample of 100 flights: Conditions: N > 10n, All flights > 1000 np > 10, 100(.78) > 10, 78 > 10 (check) n(1-p) > 10, 100(.22) > 10, 22 > 10 (check) Because the conditions check out, the proportion of flights on time will be approximately (.78)(.22) normal with pˆ 0.78 pˆ 0.041 100 A) More than 63% arrive on time? Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=0.78, StDev=0.041 10 Density 8 6 0.9999 4 2 0 0.63 X 0.78 normalcdf(0.63, E99, .78, .041) P( pˆ > 0. 63) = 0.9999 B) No more than 30% arrive on time. Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=0.78, StDev=0.041 10 Density 8 5.8461E-32 6 4 2 0 0.3 P( pˆ < 0. 30) = 0 X 0.78 normalcdf(-E99, .30, .78, 0.041) 6. A battery is designed to last for 25 hours of operation during normal use. The batteries are produced in batches of 2000 and 50 batteries from each batch are tested. If the mean life of the sample is less than 24 hours, the entire batch is rejected. Assuming that μ = 25 and σ = 3 hours for any randomly selected battery, find the probability that a batch will be rejected. The CLT states that large samples (n > 30) will behave approximately normal. Here n = 50. 3 x 25 hours x 0.424 50 Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=25, StDev=0.424 0.9 0.8 Density 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.009175 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 24 25 X normalcdf(-E99, 24, 25, 0.425) P( x < 24) = 0.009 7. A sampling distribution for means has a mean of 18 and a standard deviation of 3.2 when the sample size is n = 50. If I need to reduce the standard deviation to ¼ of that, how large a sample would I need? In order to reduce the standard deviation by ¼, the sample size needs to increase by a value 16 times larger. 22.627 22.627 3.2 times ¼ = 0.8 x 3.2 x 0.8 50 800 8. A manufacturing process is designed to produce bolts with a 0.5 inch diameter.. Once a day, a random sample of 36 bolts is selected and the diameter recorded. If the resulting sample mean is less than 0.49 inches or greater than 0.51 inches, the process is shut down for adjustment. The standard deviation for the diameter of a single bolt is 0.02 inches. If these bolt diameters are normally distributed, what is the probability that the sample mean falls outside the 0.49 to 0.51 inch interval? Because the population of bolts is approximately normal, samples will behave approximately normal. x 0.5 in x 0.02 0.003 36 Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=0.5, StDev=0.003 140 120 100 Density 80 0.9991 60 40 20 0 0.49 0.5 X 0.51 1 – normalcdf(.49, .51, .5, .003) P(the sample mean falls outside 0.49 to 0.51) = 0.001 9. Just before a referendum on a school budget, a local newspaper polls 400 voters in an attempt to predict whether the budget will pass. Suppose that the budget actually has the support of 52% of the voters (like magic we know this…). What’s the probability that the newspaper’s sample will lead them to predict defeat? Conditions: N > 10n, All voters > 4,000 np > 10, 400(.52) > 10, 208 > 10 (check) n(1-p) > 10, 400(.48) > 10, 192 > 10 (check) Because the conditions check out, the proportion of voters who support the budget will be (.52)(.48) pˆ 0.022 approximately normal with pˆ 0.52 400 Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=0.52, StDev=0.022 20 Density 15 10 0.1817 5 0 0.5 0.52 X P( pˆ < 0. 50) = 0.182 normalcdf(-E99, 0.5, 0.52, 0.022) 10. When a truckload of apples arrives at a packing plant, a random sample of 150 is selected and examined for bruises, discolorations, and other defects. The whole truckload will be rejected if more than 5% of the sample is unsatisfactory. Suppose that in fact 8% of the apples on the truck do not meet the desired standard. What’s the probability that the shipment will be accepted anyway? Conditions: N > 10n, All apples on the truck > 1,500 np > 10, 150(.08) > 10, 12 > 10 (check) n(1-p) > 10, 150(.92) > 10, 138 > 10 (check) Because the conditions check out, the proportion of unsatisfactory apples will be (.08)(.92) approximately normal with pˆ 0.08 pˆ 0.022 150 Distribution Plot Normal, Mean=0.08, StDev=0.022 20 Density 15 10 0.08634 5 0 0.05 P( pˆ < 0. 05) = 0.086 0.08 X normalcdf(-E99, 0.05, 0.08, 0.022)