Robinson Department
Transcription
Robinson Department
COMPANY UPDATE Robinson Department Store 12 January 2015 ROBINS TB / ROBINS.BK Another step into Vietnam Sector: Consumer/Retail Neutral Rating: BUY Target Price: Bt55.00 Price (9 January 2015): Bt46.50 Price chart What’s new? Power Buy, in which ROBINS holds 40%, has acquired a 49% stake in NKT New Solution and Technology Development Investment Joint Stock Company (NKT). NKT holds 100% of Nguyen Kim Trading Joint Stock Company (NK Trading), which operates an electronics store chain in Vietnam. NK Trading was established in 2001 and currently has 21 stores across the country. For the financial year ending March 2014, NK Trading reported sales of 8,438bn Vietnamese Dong (about Bt13bn) and a net profit of 352bn Dong (Bt540m). Minimal impact on earnings in the short-term ROBINS has yet to disclose the acquisition value and how Power Buy will finance the acquisition. Its filing to the SET simply states that it has issued a corporate guarantee for 40% of the total loan amount of Bt3,795m to Power Buy (pro rata by percentage holding in Power Buy). Assuming that new loans are used to finance the acquisition and a financing cost range of 4-5%, the equity income that Power Buy receives from NKT during the first year would be roughly squared by the interest expenses. Note that we have yet to factor the acquisition into our model, as the deal size, financing plan and NKT’s growth prospects are still matters of conjecture. Upgrade to BUY Although ROBINS’ near-term performance will remain weak, its recent share price fall prompted us to upgrade our rating to BUY, as the current price is far below the firm’s fundamental value. The stock currently trades on an FY15 PER of 24.1x, its lowest level in three years. In our view, now is a good time for long-term investors to start accumulating ROBINS at this bargain price. But for short-term investors we recommend waiting until 2Q15, just before the recovery builds steam. Price Bt 70 Rel. to SET Rel. Idx 150 50 100 30 50 10 01/14 0 03/14 05/14 Share price perf. (%) Relative to SET Absolute 07/14 1M (3.2) (5.1) 09/14 10/14 3M (9.8) (11.8) 12M (24.7) (3.1) Key statistics Market cap 12-mth price range 12-mth avg daily volume # of shares (m) Est. free float (%) Foreign limit (%) Consensus rating % 100 80 60 40 20 0 Buy 57 36 7 1 Hold Sell Bt51.6bn Bt40.8/Bt61.5 Bt69m 1,111 38.8 49.0 USD1.6bn USD2.1m BLS Target price BLS earnings vs. Consensus vs. Consensus Bt 60.0 Btm 3000 58.0 2000 56.0 BLS 1000 54.0 52.0 BLS Cons. BLS Cons. 0 14E 15E Financial summary FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core profit (Btm) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend (Bt) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) 2013 24,300 1,986 1.79 +19.8% 1,951 1.76 +1.8% 35.3 5.8 0.9 1.4 18.3 2014E 2015E 2016E 24,116 27,432 31,319 1,847 2,139 2,730 1.66 1.93 2.46 -7.0% +15.8% +27.6% 1,847 2,139 2,730 1.66 1.93 2.46 -5.3% +15.8% +27.6% 28.0 24.1 18.9 4.0 3.6 3.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.6 15.7 16.7 19.2 CG rating Chaiyatorn Sricharoen, CFA Securities Fundamental Investment Analyst [email protected] +66 2 618 1344 See disclaimer at the end of report Cons. ROBINS : Financial Tables – Year PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenue Cost of sales and services Gross profit SG&A EBIT Finance costs Other income/exp. EBT Corporate tax After-tax net profit (loss) Minority interest Equity earnings from affiliates Extra items Net profit (loss) Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS EBITDA KEY RATIOS Revenue growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Asset turnover (x) Current ratio (x) Gearing ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash & Equivalent Accounts receivable Inventory PP&E-net Other assets Total assets Accounts payable ST debts & current portion Long-term debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Paid-up capital Share premium Retained earnings Shareholders equity Minority interests Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation and amortization Change in working capital FX, non-cash adjustment & others Cash flows from operating activities Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flows from investing activities Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flows from financing activities Net change in cash Free cash flow (Btm) FCF per share (Bt) Key Assumptions Same-store-sales growth Store number Sales space growth Rental space growth Gross margin change (bps) 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 21,620 24,300 24,116 27,432 31,319 (16,310) (18,386) (18,219) (20,717) (23,589) 5,309 5,914 5,897 6,716 7,730 (4,782) (5,686) (6,398) (7,715) (8,838) 2,301 2,289 2,106 2,484 3,195 0 0 (39) (74) (88) 1,773 2,061 2,607 3,483 4,303 2,301 2,289 2,068 2,410 3,107 (552) (456) (430) (499) (642) 1,749 1,833 1,638 1,911 2,465 (234) (241) (217) (238) (262) 402 358 426 466 527 (259) 35 0 0 0 1,658 1,986 1,847 2,139 2,730 1.49 1.79 1.66 1.93 2.46 1.49 1.79 1.66 1.93 2.46 1,917 1,951 1,847 2,139 2,730 1.73 1.76 1.66 1.93 2.46 3,358 3,707 3,821 4,787 5,886 22.6 24.6 15.5 10.6 7.7 8.9 10.6 16.6 1.4 1.0 0.0 n.m 12.4 24.3 15.3 9.4 8.2 8.0 11.0 17.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 n.m (0.8) 24.5 15.8 8.7 7.7 7.7 9.0 13.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 122.3 13.7 24.5 17.5 9.1 7.8 7.8 8.9 12.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 80.9 14.2 24.7 18.8 10.2 8.7 8.7 10.1 14.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 85.5 4,063 604 1,325 7,954 3,214 17,160 4,347 0 0 1,957 6,304 3,943 0 6,266 10,336 520 17,160 2,100 739 1,667 9,519 4,805 18,830 4,407 0 0 2,410 6,818 3,943 0 7,252 11,343 670 18,830 1,032 649 1,369 14,172 5,004 22,226 4,269 2,400 0 2,528 9,197 3,943 0 8,117 12,208 821 22,226 1,084 918 2,027 16,582 5,362 25,972 5,148 3,600 0 2,812 11,560 3,943 0 9,333 13,424 988 25,972 1,097 859 1,778 18,611 5,772 28,116 5,336 3,400 0 3,124 11,860 3,943 0 10,993 15,084 1,172 28,115 1,658 1,058 546 (83) 3,179 (2,789) 1,027 (1,762) 0 0 (778) 1,027 (778) 639 390 0.4 1,986 1,418 (417) 203 3,190 (4,067) 827 (3,241) 0 0 (1,090) 827 (1,090) (1,141) (877) (0.8) 1,847 1,715 249 (209) 3,602 (6,268) 398 (5,870) 2,400 0 (982) 398 1,418 (850) (2,666) (2.4) 2,139 2,303 (48) (228) 4,166 (4,604) 213 (4,391) 1,200 0 (924) 213 276 52 (437) (0.4) 2,730 2,691 497 (265) 5,653 (4,604) 233 (4,370) (200) 0 (1,070) 233 (1,270) 13 1,049 0.9 10.3% 30 21.8% n.a. +15 3.1% 34 7.2% 32.6% -22 -5.0% 41 14.8% 35.5% +12 2.8% 46 9.3% 18.9% +3 5.0% 51 7.9% 19.9% +20 Revenue growth and asset turnover Revenue growth (%) (LHS) Asset turnover (x) (RHS) % 25 20 15 10 5 0 (5) x 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10 11 12 14E 15E 16E 13 A/C receivable & A/C payable days AR / Sales (days) AP / Cost of Goods (days) days 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 10 11 12 13 14E 15E 16E 15E 16E Profit margins Gross margin (%) EBIT margin (%) % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 11 12 13 14E Capital expenditure Capex (Bt,bn) Capex / Net PPE (%) Bt,bn 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 11 12 13 14E 15E 16E ROCE ROCE (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 11 12 13 14E 15E 16E Dividend payout Dividend (Bt) Payout ratio (%) Bt/Shr 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 % 1.23 0.62 0.65 10 11 0.90 0.90 0.83 0.96 12 13 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 14E 15E 16E ROBINS - 2 ROBINS : Financial Tables – Quarter QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenue Cost of sales and services Gross profit SG&A EBIT Finance costs Other income/exp. EBT Corporate tax After-tax net profit (loss) Minority interest Equity earnings from affiliates Extra items Net profit (loss) Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS EBITDA KEY RATIOS Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) BV (Bt) ROE (%) ROA (%) Current ratio (x) Gearing ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) 3Q13 5,869 (4,474) 1,395 (1,433) (38) 0 516 478 (93) 386 (51) 90 0 425 0.38 0.38 425 0.38 849 4Q13 6,567 (4,927) 1,640 (1,611) 29 0 580 608 (126) 482 (68) 114 35 562 0.51 0.51 527 0.47 1,023 1Q14 5,941 (4,447) 1,494 (1,449) 45 (1) 602 646 (130) 516 (70) 92 0 539 0.49 0.49 539 0.49 1,054 2Q14 5,500 (4,154) 1,346 (1,492) (146) (9) 620 464 (99) 365 (46) 121 0 440 0.40 0.40 440 0.40 871 3Q14 5,774 (4,420) 1,355 (1,581) (227) (14) 624 384 (79) 305 (47) 95 0 353 0.32 0.32 353 0.32 810 Revenue trend Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS) Revenue growth (% YoY) Bt,bn 7 7 6 6 5 5 1Q13 3Q13 Key Statistics Same-store-sales growth Store number Sales space growth (YoY) Rental space growth (YoY) 1Q14 3Q14 Revenue trend (accumulated) Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn) % of FY Revenue Bt,bn 30 % 120 100 25 73 20 10 100 71 49 15 80 47 26 60 25 40 5 20 0 0 23.8 14.5 8.1 7.2 7.2 10.2 16.1 10.2 0.7 0.0 n.m. 25.0 15.6 9.3 8.6 8.0 10.8 20.3 12.6 0.7 0.0 n.m. 25.1 17.7 10.9 9.1 9.1 11.4 18.6 11.5 0.6 0.0 n.m. 24.5 15.8 8.6 8.0 8.0 10.8 15.2 9.2 0.5 0.2 n.m. 23.5 14.0 6.9 6.1 6.1 11.2 12.3 7.1 0.4 0.2 n.m. 1Q13 1,346 440 1,504 9,309 4,136 16,736 3,517 0 0 1,838 5,355 3,943 0 6,690 10,779 601 16,736 2,100 739 1,667 9,519 4,805 18,830 4,407 0 0 2,410 6,818 3,943 0 7,252 11,343 670 18,830 1,276 567 1,611 10,315 5,052 18,820 3,525 600 0 2,080 6,205 3,943 0 7,791 11,876 739 18,820 1,102 445 1,530 11,207 5,117 19,401 3,234 2,120 0 2,063 7,416 3,943 0 7,232 11,317 667 19,401 1,096 513 1,444 11,913 5,617 20,582 3,415 2,325 0 2,458 8,197 3,943 0 7,584 11,670 714 20,582 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Net profit trend (accumulated) Accum. Profit (Bt,m) % of FY Profit Bt,m 2,500 120 100 72 72 1,500 1,000 % 100 2,000 80 53 50 60 29 28 40 500 20 0 0 1Q13 QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash & Equivalent Accounts receivable Inventory PP&E-net Other assets Total assets Accounts payable ST debts & current portion Long-term debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Paid-up capital Share premium Retained earnings Shareholders equity Minority interests Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Gross profit margin FY GPM (%) Gross margin (%) % 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 EBIT margin FY EBIT margin (%) EBIT margin (%) % 12 10 8 6 5.0% 32 17.4% 32.6% -1.4% 34 7.2% 38.5% -3.3% 34 10.7% 17.6% -7.0% 35 8.4% 25.6% -6.8% 36 10.3% 35.5% 4 2 0 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Company profile Robinson Department Store (ROBINS) is Thailand’s largest department store chain and a member of Central Group, Thailand's largest retail firm. The firm currently has 35 stores; 10 in greater Bangkok, 24 in the provinces and one in Vietnam. ROBINS - 3 Regional Comparisons Bloomberg (US$ (local curr.) equivalent) Code Suning Appliance Co Ltd Wumart Stores Inc Parkson Retail Group Nitori Hldg Co Ltd Lawson Inc Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd Family Mart President Chain Store Corp Capitaland Limited SM Prime Holdings Inc. Home Depot Costco whole sale corp Carrefour Home Product Center Big C Supercenter Beauty Community Karmarts Berli Jucker C.P. All Central Pattana DSG International (Thailand) Siam Global House Robinson Department Store Siam Future Development Officemate Siam Makro Simple average P ER (x) P rice M arket Cap 002024 CH 1025 HK 3368 HK 9843 JT 2651JT 3382 JT 8028 JP 2912 TT CAPL SP SMPH PM HD US COST US CA FP HMPRO TB BIGC TB BEAUTY TB KAMART TB BJC TB CPALL TB CPN TB DSGT TB GLOBAL TB ROBINS TB SF TB OFM TB MAKRO TB CNY9.4 HKD6.3 HKD2.0 JPY6,550.0 JPY7,510.0 JPY4,366.5 JPY4,650.0 TWD239.0 SGD3.2 PHP17.4 USD104.9 USD143.3 EUR23.9 THB8.20 THB242.00 THB33.50 THB6.25 THB41.25 THB42.25 THB45.50 THB7.70 THB10.80 THB46.50 THB6.30 THB50.50 THB37.00 2014E 11,142 1,041 710 6,322 6,353 32,644 3,831 7,784 10,314 11,180 138,227 63,133 20,757 3,078 6,078 306 125 1,999 11,554 6,216 295 1,002 1,572 284 492 5,407 n.a. 14.9 12.3 17.3 18.7 20.7 17.8 26.0 20.3 25.1 23.3 27.7 15.6 32.0 26.8 33.1 25.3 40.3 36.9 28.1 20.7 47.7 28.0 13.8 32.5 38.1 25.7 PER band versus SD (next 12 months) EP S Growth (%) 2015E n.a. 13.6 11.8 15.8 17.0 18.7 20.6 24.6 18.7 22.1 20.1 25.3 13.6 27.9 23.6 26.1 23.9 30.3 27.9 24.7 18.9 39.5 24.1 10.4 28.4 32.3 22.4 2014E -398.0 n.a. n.a. 8.4 5.5 6.2 9.8 19.8 -1.5 16.4 20.1 10.6 -9.1 3.1 7.0 43.6 1.3 -31.5 -2.5 17.3 -31.4 -22.1 -7.0 17.7 21.6 8.4 -11.9 2015E -51.0 8.9 3.9 9.6 9.7 10.7 -12.7 4.7 12.2 12.2 14.6 9.8 6.4 14.9 13.2 26.7 5.6 32.7 32.2 13.7 10.0 21.0 15.8 32.4 14.4 18.1 11.1 P BV (x) 2014E 2.6 1.6 0.7 2.2 2.6 1.7 1.6 8.3 0.8 2.4 15.9 4.2 1.8 6.5 4.7 9.0 5.8 3.6 10.8 4.9 3.4 2.3 4.0 1.3 3.3 14.7 4.6 ROE (%) 2015E 2.6 1.5 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.5 7.5 0.8 2.2 16.9 3.7 1.6 5.7 4.1 8.2 5.9 3.3 9.3 4.3 3.1 2.2 3.6 1.2 3.1 13.9 4.3 Div Yield (%) 2014E 2015E -2.2 11.4 6.4 15.2 16.3 9.2 8.0 34.8 5.4 11.3 93.9 17.4 13.3 22.4 18.8 28.7 24.6 11.0 34.4 18.9 18.2 5.6 15.7 10.6 10.5 40.3 19.2 -3.6 11.3 6.3 15.7 15.4 8.7 9.4 36.4 5.0 10.9 54.4 17.6 12.8 21.8 18.6 32.9 24.9 13.7 40.3 18.9 17.3 5.7 16.7 12.6 11.3 44.3 18.4 2014E 2015E 0.5 3.8 3.7 0.8 3.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 2.9 1.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 1.4 2.1 1.4 2.5 0.6 1.8 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.5 4.1 3.8 0.9 3.4 1.8 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.5 2.1 1.1 3.2 1.7 1.3 3.4 4.5 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.7 0.8 2.1 0.2 1.4 2.8 2.2 PBV band versus SD (next 12 months) x x 60 9.0 +3 SD = 52.6x 50 +2 SD = 41.9x +3 SD = 8.4x 8.0 +2 SD = 6.7x 7.0 6.0 40 +1 SD = 31.2x 30 LT-average = 20.6x 20 -1 SD = 9.9x 10 +1 SD = 5.0x 5.0 4.0 LT-average = 3.3x 3.0 2.0 -1SD = 1.5x 1.0 0 YE06 YE07 YE08 YE09 YE10 YE11 YE12 YE13 0.0 YE06 YE14 PER band and share price YE07 YE08 YE09 YE10 YE11 YE12 YE13 YE14 PBV band and share price Bt/share 52.6x 100 90 80 70 60 50 41.9x 100 31.2x 80 20.6x 40 Bt/share 120 8.4x 6.7x 5.0x 60 3.3x 40 30 9.9x 20 10 0 YE06 YE07 YE08 YE09 YE10 YE11 YE12 YE13 0 YE06 YE14 1.5x 20 YE07 YE08 YE09 YE10 YE11 YE12 YE13 YE14 Foreign holding % ROBINS 27 26 25 24 23 22 Commerce 23.7 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 ROBINS - 4 DISCLAIMER Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BLS) is a subsidiary of BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL). This document is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration to use as information for investment. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY BE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SECURITIES IN THIS REPORT. “Opinions, projections and other information contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be accurate including the draft prospectus, but no responsibility is accepted for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. 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Lead underwriter/ Underwriter/ Co-underwriter Financial Advisor EPG Score Range Score Range Description 90 – 100 Excellent 80 – 89 Very Good 70 – 79 Good 60 – 69 Satisfactory 50 – 59 Below 50 Pass No logo given N/A CORPORATE GOVERMANCE REPORT DISCLAIMER This research report was prepared by Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited and refers to research prepared by Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its research reports. Morgan Stanley reserves copyright and other proprietary rights in the material reproduced in this report. Morgan Stanley is under no obligation to inform Bualuang Securities or you if the views or information referred to or reproduced in this research report change. Corporate Governance Report disclaimer The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not base on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months. HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months. OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. ROBINS - 5