Keppel Land (KPLD SP)
Transcription
Keppel Land (KPLD SP)
1/26/2015 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 January 2015 Neutral Keppel Land (KPLD SP) Price : S$3.65 20 Jan 2015 Accept the offer Price Targe t: S$3.50 PT End Date : 31 De c 2015 Keppel Corp’s (KEP) offer price of S$4.38/4.60 for Keppel Land’s (KPLD) remaining stake looks fair to us, as it equates to a 25.3%/21.3% discount to our RNAV estimate, lower than the historical mean of 26%. Further, given the residential headwinds, we think KPLD’s RNAV discount is unlikely to narrow significantly in the near term in the absence of this transaction. We think the sector will re-rate in the near term, with investors scouting for prospective privatization candidates. Our top developer picks are GLP and CAPL. · Voluntary cash offe r for KPLD. KEP has launched a voluntary unconditional cash offer for all the remaining shares of its 54.6%-owned KPLD, with a base offer price of S$4.38/share. The base offer price will be adjusted upwards to S$4.60/share should KEP acquire KPLD’s shares or receive acceptances entitling it to exercise its rights of compulsory acquisition, which means KEP will need to own 90% of the total issued shares excluding treasury shares and those it already has. Table 1: Voluntary cash offer details Specified S$ Closing Price FY14 NAV JPM FY15 RNAV Price Target 3.65 4.95 5.86 3.50 Offer Price (S$) Premium/(Discount) to Closing Price Premium/(Discount) to FY14 NAV Premium/(Discount) to JPM FY15 RNAV Premium/(Discount) to Price Target Base Higher 4.38 20.0% -11.6% -25.3% 25.1% 4.60 26.0% -7.2% -21.5% 31.4% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. · Historical de als not that re le vant. Looking at privatization or partial offers involving property developers which were completed over the past five years, the average premium to book value (or NAV) was 3%. However, the case for comparison is debatable given that the bulk of the transactions involved small-to-mid-cap developers which had relatively low liquidity. Further, several of their NAVs do not factor in revaluations as the properties were treated as Property, Plant & Equipment. CapitaMalls Asia’s privatization in Apr-14 (20% discount to RNAV) seems to be the closest comparable, though its 100% retail exposure contrasts that of KPLD (Residential: 64% and Commercial: 36%). Table 2: Historical privatization deals Specified Announcem ent Date Target Acquirer Offer Price (S$) (S$) (%) (S$) Jan-15 Keppel Land Lee Kim Tah Holdings Keppel Corporation 4.38 3.65 20.0% 4.95 Lee Kim Tah Inv estments 1.08 1.015 6.4% Sep-14 Last Traded Price Pre/(Disc) To Last Traded Price NAV Pre/(Disc) To NAV Outcom e (%) Acquirer Stake As At Offer Date (%) -11.5% 54.6% Ongoing 1.04 4.3% 86.4% Delisted Jan-15 Listing maintained. Ow nership interest rises to 60.6% Mar-14 Global Premium Hotels Mr. Koh Wee Meng 0.33 0.29 13.8% 0.64 -48.4% 59.1% Apr-14 CapitaMalls Asia CapitaLand 2.35 1.81 29.8% 1.87 25.7% 65.3% Apr-14 Hotel Properties 68 Holdings (Ong Beng Seng, Wheelock Properties) 4.00 3.13 27.8% 3.13 27.8% 41.9% Feb-14 Singapore Land Pan Pacific Hotels Group SC Global Dev elopments UIC Enterprise 9.40 8.45 11.2% 13.07 -28.1% 80.4% Delisted Jul-14 Listing maintained. Ow nership interest rises to 56.5% Delisted Aug-14 UOL Group 2.55 2.34 9.0% 1.57 62.4% 81.6% Delisted Oct-13 MYK Holdings 1.80 1.205 49.4% 1.56 15.4% 55.1% Delisted Mar-13 May -13 Dec-12 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 1/7 1/26/2015 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 May -12 Wing Tai Asia Ascend Capital 1.39 1.175 18.3% 2.51 -44.6% 41.8% May -11 Allgreen Properties 1.60 1.15 39.1% 1.67 -4.2% 55.7% Sep-10 Soilbuild 0.80 0.705 13.5% 0.634 26.2% 73.1% Delisted Dec-12 Aug-10 Average MCL Land Brookv ale Inv estments Lim Chap Huat (Dolphin Acquisitions) HKL (MCL) Listing maintained. Partial offer for 8.7% stake. Delisted Jul-11 2.45 1.95 25.6% 22.2% 2.55 -3.9% 3.0% 83.1% 65.8% Delisted Feb-11 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. · RNAV trading range a be tte r gauge ; Acce pt offe r. KEP’s offer price of S$4.38/4.60 represents a 25.3%/21.5% discount to our RNAV estimate of S$5.86, which is lower than KPLD’s historical RNAV discount of 26%. KEP’s offer price also represents a 25.1%/31.4% premium to our price target. Therefore, we think KPLD’s existing shareholders should accept the offer. Historically, Singapore Developers have traded at a mean RNAV discount of 18.1%. Figure 1: KPLD RNAV trading range Figure 2: SDevelopers RNAV trading range % % Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. · Impact #1: Se ctor Re -Rating. We expect this transaction to result in the near-term re-rating of Developers, i.e. narrowing of RNAV discounts. However, given that the fundamentals of the residential market remain subdued, we do not expect the re-rating to be significant, i.e. just 3-5%pts, which is similar to the period when CMA’s privatization was announced in Apr-14. Back then, Developers’ RNAV discount narrowed from 40.2% to 36.5%. Table 3: RNAV of Developers and Overall Sector from Mar-14 to Aug-14 % Mar-14 Apr-14* May -14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 CIT CAPL OUE GLP KPLD Sector -28.8% -23.7% -28.0% -28.9% -26.4% -30.3% -47.1% -43.0% -43.0% -42.9% -38.4% -40.7% -51.3% -50.7% -44.6% -44.6% -44.2% -47.6% -17.8% -11.6% -12.6% -15.1% -12.3% -10.4% -39.5% -37.7% -38.2% -40.0% -35.4% -38.4% -40.2% -36.5% -37.7% -38.2% -34.7% -37.7% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. · Impact #2: Prospe ctive Candidate s. Given that the subdued outlook for residential properties has weighted on sentiment, we believe investors will start looking at developers which have been trading at depressed valuations (i.e. low P/B), with the largest shareholder holding a significant stake. These are key criteria for any potential privatization, in our view. In addition, QC extension charges could spur further interest in privatizations, following the example of Soilbuild, SC Global and now Popular Holdings. Table 4: Prospective Candidates Specified Developers UOL Group Ho Bee Land Sim Lian Group Ltd Rox y -Pacific Hldgs Ltd Hotel Properties Ltd Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd United Industrial Corp Ltd Tuan Sing Holdings Ltd Guocoland Ltd Mkt Cap* 23-Jan-15 Last Price* 23-Jan-15 (S$m ) (S$) (S$) (S$) Pre/ (Disc) to NAV (%) 5,724 1,354 855 633 2,133 2,256 4,847 500 2,118 7.27 2.03 0.85 0.53 4.11 1.89 3.48 0.43 1.79 9.18 3.52 0.98 0.28 3.47 2.51 4.88 0.65 2.51 9.29 3.27 1.05 0.30 3.15 2.66 3.99 0.66 2.44 -20.8% -42.3% -13.5% 91.7% 18.4% -24.9% -28.7% -34.2% -28.8% https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 NAV Bk Val. Pre/ (Disc) to Bk val. (%) P/B -21.7% -37.9% -18.7% 78.3% 30.4% -29.1% -12.9% -36.0% -26.6% 0.78 0.62 0.81 1.78 1.30 0.71 0.87 0.64 0.73 (x) Majority Shareholder Wee Cho Yaw Ho Bee Holdings Priv ate Sim Lian Holdings Kian Lam Inv estment 68 Holdings Star Attraction Limited Uol Group Limited Nuri Holdings S Guoco Group Stake 31.8% 72.8% 54.9% 49.3% 56.5% 75.8% 48.8% 46.5% 68.0% 2/7 1/26/2015 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 Hong Fok Corp Ltd Hiap Hoe Ltd Heeton Holdings Ltd Wing Tai Holdings Weighted Average 720 381 169 1,438 23,127 0.91 0.81 0.63 1.83 1.98 0.79 1.13 4.00 1.87 1.52 1.13 3.82 -53.9% 2.1% -44.2% -54.3% -21.1% -51.2% -47.1% -44.4% -52.1% -18.0% 0.49 0.53 0.56 0.48 0.82 Hong Fok Land Intl Hiap Hoe Holdings Heeton Inv estments Cheng Wai Keung 20.4% 69.5% 25.1% 60.9% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. · Impact #3: Fund Flows & Inde x Implications. We believe investors who decide to accept the offer would also start thinking about where to put their money next. Among Developers, we continue to like GLP and CAPL, while SUN, AREIT, CRCT and ART are our top REIT picks. Lastly, given that KPLD is now in two major indices (FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index and MSCI Singapore Index), there should be new companies which could potentially replace KPLD, which results in improved liquidity. Table 5: S-Developer valuation summary Specified Company CapitaLand City Developments Keppel Land Overseas Union Enterprise Global Logistic Properties Total / Weighted Average Total / Weighted Avg (Ex GLP) JPM Sh price Rating Mkt cap 23-Jan-15 (S$ MM) (S$) OW 15,161 3.56 N 9,575 10.53 N 5,640 3.65 UW 1,984 2.18 OW 12,535 2.59 44,895 32,360 Price target (S$) 3.80 10.05 3.50 2.10 3.30 RNAV JPM used Dividend yield 20 Day upside RNAV Disc/prem Disc/prem BVPS P/B FY15E FY16E ADTV Gearing (%) (S$) (%) (%) (S$) (x) (%) (%) (S$m) (%) 6.7% 5.83 -38.9% -35% 3.72 0.96 2.2% 2.2% 37.2 59.9% -4.6% 12.54 -16.1% -20% 8.79 1.20 1.5% 1.5% 8.4 36.4% -4.1% 5.86 -37.7% -40% 4.59 0.80 3.6% 3.6% 9.9 36.8% -3.7% 4.25 -48.7% -50% 4.06 0.54 2.3% 2.3% 0.7 44.6% 27.4% 3.30 -21.4% 0% 2.35 1.10 1.5% 1.5% 27.3 -4.6% 8.3% -29.4% -23.3% 1.01 2.1% 2.1% 33.3% 0.9% -32.5% -32.4% 0.97 2.3% 2.3% 48.0% YTD Sh Perf (%) 7.6% 2.5% 6.7% 6.9% 4.4% 5.5% 5.9% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg, Company data. Investment Thesis KPLD is a diversified developer primarily exposed to the China residential market. Contract sales more than tripled and sales units more than doubled Y/Y in 2013. The company plans to deepen its presence in core China and Singapore markets, while investing opportunistically in growth markets Indonesia and Vietnam. Management plans to achieve a target profit mix of 70% from property trading and 30% from other businesses. Valuation Our Dec-15 PT of S$3.50 is derived from a 40% discount to our forward RNAV estimate of S$5.86. Av erage premium/(discount) to RNAV 1 s.d. abov e av erage prem/(disc) to RNAV 1 s.d. below av erage prem/(disc) to RNAV -26% -4% -49% Max prem/(disc) to RNAV Min prem/(disc) to RNAV 41% -83% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Risks to Rating and Price Target Key downside risks to our rating and PT include: (1) prolonged weakness in the Singapore and China residential property markets; (2) an inability to redeploy capital from divestment proceeds to higher-yielding investments; and (3) entry into overseas geographies outside of focus/specialized markets. Key upside risks include: (1) a pickup in residential volumes in Singapore, China and Vietnam, which could be caused by the easing of policies; (2) the divestment of non-core assets, with capital redeployed to higher-yielding assets or paid out as special dividends; and (3) a quicker-than-expected stabilization of income from growing commercial portfolio. Property Brandon Lee AC (65) 6882-7073 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited Cusson Leung (852) 2800-8526 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Terence M Khi (65) 6882-1518 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited www.jpmorganmarkets.com https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 3/7 1/26/2015 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 Other Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on 23 January 2015) A-REIT (AEMN.SI/S$2.57/Overweight), Ascott Residence Trust (ASRT.SI/S$1.29/Overweight), CapitaLand (CATL.SI/S$3.56/Overweight), CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT.SI/S$1.69/Overweight), Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLPL.SI/S$2.59/Overweight), Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI/S$2.00/Overweight) Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. J.P. M organ does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures · Lead or Co-manager: J.P. M organ acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for CapitaLand, Ascott Residence Trust within the past 12 months. · Analyst Position: The following analysts (and/or their associates or household members) own a long position in the shares of CapitaRetail China Trust: Brandon Lee. · Client: J.P. M organ currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Keppel Land, Global Logistic Properties Ltd, CapitaLand, Suntec REIT, CapitaRetail China Trust, Ascott Residence Trust. · Client/Investment Banking: J.P. M organ currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment banking clients: Global Logistic Properties Ltd, CapitaLand, Ascott Residence Trust. · Client/Non-Investment Banking, S ecurities-Related: J.P. M organ currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Keppel Land, Global Logistic Properties Ltd, Ascott Residence Trust. · Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. M organ received in the past 12 months compensation from investment banking Global Logistic Properties Ltd, CapitaLand, Ascott Residence Trust. · Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. M organ expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Global Logistic Properties Ltd, CapitaLand, Ascott Residence Trust. · Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. M organ has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Keppel Land, Global Logistic Properties Ltd, Ascott Residence Trust. · “J.P. M organ (S.E.A.) Limited (“J.P. M organ”) is acting as a Joint Lead M anager and Joint Bookrunners for DBS Trustee Limited in its capacity as trustee of Ascott Residence Trust (“Ascott”) for its subordinated perpetual issuance as announced on 17 October 2014. J.P. M organ will be receiving fees for so acting. J.P. M organ and/or its affiliates may perform, or may seek to perform, other financial or advisory services for Ascott and/or its affiliates and may have other interests in or relationships with Ascott and/or its affiliates, and receive fees, commissions or other compensation in such capacities. This research report and the information herein is not intended to serve as an endorsement of the proposed transaction or result in procurement, withholding or revocation of a proxy or any other action by a security holder. This report is based solely on publicly available information. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.” Company-S pecific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. M organ–covered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing [email protected] with your request. J.P. 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Date https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 Rating Share Price Price Target (S$) (S$) 08-Nov -06 N 4.20 5.39 26-Jan-07 N 5.09 7.50 10-Apr-07 N 6.51 8.65 24-Jul-07 N 6.08 8.65 17-Aug-07 UW 5.37 6.15 24-Sep-07 UW 5.87 6.10 24-Oct-07 UW 5.87 7.25 06-Dec-07 UW 5.44 6.82 21-Jan-08 N 4.08 6.39 28-Feb-08 UW 4.32 5.35 23-Apr-08 UW 4.32 5.10 02-Sep-08 UW 2.65 3.50 06-Nov -08 UW 1.62 1.56 19-Mar-09 N 0.88 1.75 24-Apr-09 UW 1.25 1.50 22-Jul-09 N 2.49 2.40 20-Jan-10 N 3.52 3.60 26-Jan-10 N 3.36 3.70 18-Mar-10 N 3.65 3.65 14-Oct-10 N 4.28 4.70 4/7 1/26/2015 https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-ui8sdl4/GPS-1607460-0 25-Jun-11 N 3.58 4.50 14-Sep-11 N 2.87 2.85 16-Jan-12 N 2.45 2.85 19-Jul-12 N 3.39 3.70 18-Apr-13 N 3.99 4.00 16-Oct-13 N 3.58 4.20 25-Aug-14 NR 3.49 -- 3.35 3.50 09-Dec-14 N The chart(s) show J.P. M organ's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. M organ ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. M organ uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. M organ has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. smalland mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. M organ’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com. Coverage Universe: Lee, Brandon: A-REIT (AEM N.SI), Ascott Residence Trust (ASRT.SI), CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI), CapitaCommercial Trust (CACT.SI), CapitaLand (CATL.SI), CapitaM all Trust (CM LT.SI), CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT.SI), City Developments (CTDM .SI), Far East Hospitality Trust (FAEH.SI), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCRT.SI), Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLPL.SI), Keppel Land (KLAN.SI), Keppel REIT (KASA.SI), M apletree Commercial Trust (M ACT.SI), M apletree Industrial Trust (M API.SI), Overseas Union Enterprise Ltd (OVES.SI), Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 1, 2015 J.P . Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JP MS Equity Research Coverage IB clients* O ve rwe igh t Ne u tral (buy) (hold) 45% 43% 56% 49% 45% 48% 75% 67% Un de rwe igh t (sell) 12% 33% 7% 52% *P ercentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. 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