LTSA 8-19-2014 Scenario Results

2014 LTSA Scenario Results
Updates
August, 2014
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
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Scenario Summary
• An issue was found in how energy efficiency was accounted for in the
load forecast of the High EE / DG Scenario
• We are working to redo the forecast adding the correct amount of
energy efficiency and will rerun the generation expansion for the
scenario
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
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Comparison of Load Forecasts
Original
Corrected
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
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Current Trends
2029 Retirements & Additions
Panhandle
Retirement*
12,639MW
3,290MW
East
Weather
2,312MW
Zone
1,340MW
Solar**
7,280MW
West and
Far West
Weather
Zone
NG
11,660MW
103MW
350MW
3,120MW
2,750MW
3,640MW
5,922MW
2,200MW
Coast
Weather
Zone
3,861MW
North Central and
South Central Weather
Zones
* Retired Wind Capacity set at 8.7% of nominal
** Solar Capacity shown at 70% of nominal
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
441MW
South
2,250MW Weather
Zone
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Current Trends Scenario
2024 & 2029 Generation Siting, Capacity MW
2024 Additions
CC
CT
Solar
Retirement
Total
2029 Additions
CC
CT
Solar
Retirement
Total
•
COAST
1,600
600
0
(3,861)
(1,661)
0
0
0
(994)
(994)
EAST
0
0
0
(2,312)
(2,312)
FAR_WEST
1,200
0
420
(13)
1,607
FAR_WEST
1,200
0
1,470
(73)
2,597
NORTH
0
1,150
1,400
0
2,550
NORTH
0
1,340
3,290
0
4,630
NORTH_CE
SOUTH_CE
800
760
70
(2,543)
(913)
NORTH_CE
SOUTHERN
800
0
0
(2,322)
(1,522)
1,450
200
0
(441)
1,209
SOUTH_CE SOUTHERN
800
760
140
(3,600)
(1,900)
800
760
210
(2,322)
(552)
1,450
800
0
(441)
1,809
WEST
0
1,060
630
0
1,690
WEST
0
1,550
2,170
(30)
3,690
Total
5,850
3,170
2,520
(10,174)
1,366
Total
5,850
5,810
7,280
(12,639)
6,301
Solar siting based on solar profiles at 13 weather stations
CC and CT capacities shown set at 100% of nominal capacity
–
•
1,600
0
0
(3,861)
(2,261)
EAST
Solar capacity shown set at 70% of nominal capacity
–
•
COAST
CT & CC Siting procedures previously shared with RPG
Retirement decisions based on unit age
–
–
Retirement values shown include multiple technology types
Wind retirement capacity set at 8.7% of plant nominal capacity
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
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Questions?
Doug Murray
[email protected]
512-248-6908
Julie Jin
[email protected]
512-248-3982
ERCOT PUBLIC
8/19/2014
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1. Scenario: Current Trends
Economic Growth
• Migration to TX along I-35 corridor
• Growth in south Texas
• Industrial growth in Houston, I-35,
Midland/Odessa, Valley
• ~1.5% load growth – high growth in near term
then tapering off in long-term
• LNG growth based on permits existing –
needs review
• Oil production rates follow trend in recent EIA
projections for Texas
Environmental Regulation
•
•
•
•
MATS and 316B are implemented by 2016
CSAPR Hybrid
Greenhouse gas regulation set with flexibility
No other major changes in environmental
regulations
Story:
Same old, same old. The recent population and
economic growth in Texas continues in the near
future, fueled largely by the continued growth of the
oil and gas sector and the relative robust Texas
economy compared to the rest of the U.S. World oil
prices high enough to keep increasing oil
production in the short-term, keeping domestic
natural gas prices relatively low. With low gas
prices, several LNG export terminals are built
between 2014 and 2024. Modest wind growth
continues based on economics without production
tax credits. Capital costs for solar continues to
decline at a slower rate than recent history. No
required reserve margin is set for ERCOT and the
environmental regulations continues to be
moderate, with no explicit federal carbon tax or
required national cap and trade, but greenhouse
gas emissions become regulated beyond 2016.
Alternative Generation
• Solar: 1000 MW / year
• Wind capacity addition limit: 3,000 MW/yr
• Capacity factor wind – rely on historical data
from ERCOT
• Capital cost wind ~$2,000/kW
• Capital cost solar ~4.4% reduction/year
• Overall renewable growth driven by economic
entry
• No production tax credit beyond 2013
• No change to existing investment tax credit
policy
Gas/Oil Prices
ERCOT PUBLIC
• EIA reference case
or best available gas and oil
8/19/2014
price forecasts
Transmission Regulation
/Policy
• Policy set to reduce constraints
• Increased DC-tie capacity with neighboring
region
• Higher reliability standards are set by
NERC to avoid load shedding
Generation Resource Adequacy
• No reserve margin set for ERCOT
• Maintain energy-only market
• Economic retirements continues based on
economics
End-Use
• Increased need for ancillary services
• Increase penetration of demand response
• Increasing distributed generation
Implications for ERCOT:
• Continued modest economic and therefore load
growth in Texas.
• Growth in oil production and population across the
state leads to new transmission needs
• Continued increased renewables leading to
reliability (inertia) issues
• No major generation retirements triggered by
stringent environmental regulations.
Weather / Water
• No drought situation, but water supply
continues to be a concern to existing and
new generators.
• No specific increase in electricity
consumption due to drought conditions.
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