report - Commerzbank

Economic Research
Week in Focus
30 January 2015
Cheap oil, soft euro: The effects on our world view
How will the decline in the oil price and the EUR-USD exchange rate impact economic
activity, inflation and monetary policy in the US and the euro area? Ironically, lower oil prices
can be expected to spur consumption which has prompted an upward revision to our 2015
euro area growth forecast. However, we can well imagine, in light of oil-price-induced
negative inflation, that the ECB will still increase the volume of its monthly bond purchases
later this year. Also against the backdrop of lower inflation, we now see the first rate hike by
the Fed in September rather than June. Nevertheless, we have lowered our EUR-USD
forecast considerably.
Page 2
The euro and the oil price continue falling
EUR-USD and crude oil price (Brent blend, per barrel) in USD, daily data
1.40
120
110
1.35
100
1.30
90
1.25
80
70
1.20
60
1.15
1.10
Jul-14
50
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Euro (lhs)
Jan-15
40
Feb-15
Crude oil (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
India: Modi’s incremental approach. Reforms to date may appear to be modest but
overhauling decades of inefficient policies in a matter of months was always going to be too
much to ask. We see Modi’s reforms moving in the right direction, in an incremental and
pragmatic manner.
Page 5
Product Idea: Forward Plus in EUR-SEK. The appreciation of the Swedish krona has put
the Riksbank in an awkward situation since it would prefer a weaker currency. Given the risk
that it will take unconventional measures to weaken the krona we offer a means of hedging
against such an outcome.
Page 6
Outlook for the week of 1 to 6 February 2015
Economic data: The January US employment report is likely to show decent job growth
although the focus is more likely to be on wages following the weak December outcome.
Page 9
Bond market: European bond markets will probably continue to be mainly driven by political
events. We continue to assume that the yield lows in long-dated Bunds are still ahead of us
and have revised down our yield forecasts for the euro area and US Treasuries.
Page 12
FX market: While the Fed is still on a normalisation course, most other G10 central banks
are generally pursuing monetary easing which has prompted FX forecast changes. Page 13
Equity market: With many of the factors supporting our bullish DAX outlook already having
come to fruition, global risk factors suggest that the German market is likely to move
sideways for the foreseeable future.
Page 14
Commodity market: With US oil inventories expected to mark a new record high next
week, oversupply is likely to continue weighing on the oil price.
Page 15
Chief economist:
Dr Jörg Krämer
For important disclosure information please see page 18.
Editor:
Peter Dixon
research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available
+49 69 136 23650
[email protected]
+44 20 7475 4806
[email protected]
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Cheap oil, soft euro:
The effects on our world view
Dr Jörg Krämer
Tel. +49 69 136 23650
The oil price and the EUR-USD exchange rate have collapsed. This has provoked an
intensive discussion of what this means for our forecasts of economic activity, inflation
and central banks in the US and the euro area. For the first time in a long while, we have
revised our growth forecast for the euro area slightly upwards. However, we can well
imagine, in light of oil-price-induced negative inflation, that the ECB will increase the
volume of monthly bond purchases later this year. Also against the backdrop of lower
inflation, we now see the first rate hike by the Fed in September rather than June.
Nevertheless, we have lowered our EUR-USD forecast considerably.
Semblance of recovery in the euro area
Our growth forecasts for the euro area have always been low. And we have often emphasised
that private households and businesses in many euro area countries are still too highly indebted
and will not easily be lured into higher spending by the ECB’s low interest rates. But at our
monthly forecast meeting, we raised our 2015 euro area growth forecast from 0.8% to 1.1% (see
Box for our forecast for Germany). One reason for this is that the oil price decline has lowered
the euro area’s import bill by an amount equivalent to around 1¼% of GDP. Nearly half of this
has trickled down to consumers, raising their disposable income by around 1%. At least some of
this will go into consumption. What is more, the external value of the euro has fallen by a good
7% since mid-2014. This should some slight growth stimulus over the next few quarters,
although the lack of a reform breakthrough in Italy and France will depress long-term growth
prospects for the euro area.
Core inflation to remain below 1% despite depreciation
The fact that cheaper oil directly reduces inflation via lower energy costs is self-evident. For this
reason we had already lowered our 2015 inflation forecast for the euro area to -0.1% in early
January. What is more interesting is how the inflation rate excluding energy and food prices will
evolve – the so-called core inflation, which the ECB monitors closely (chart 1) – because here
the fall in oil prices and the euro depreciation work in opposite directions.
•
Oil is not only an energy source but also an important upstream input product, whose price
impacts on the prices of non-energy products. According to the ECB’s calculations 1, a fall in
the oil price (on a euro basis) of 10% lowers the consumer price index (ex. energy) by a
total of 0.2% after three years. This means a fall of 40% in oil prices since mid-2014 will
reduce non-energy consumer prices by a total of 0.8% which should lower core inflation by
about 0.3 percentage points in 2015.
•
Depreciation of the euro’s trade-weighted external value by 10% raises the inflation rate by
around 0.4 percentage points over a period of one year according to ECB estimates 2. Since
mid-2014, the external value has fallen by a good 7%, which will likely increase core
inflation by around 0.3 percentage points this year.
The effects of the lower oil price and the euro depreciation thus balance each other out with
regards to core inflation. With labour costs continuing to rise only moderately, core inflation this
year and probably also next should remain at just under 1% – well below the ECB’s 2% target.
We had not expected this result before we analysed the ECB’s studies on the determinants of
core inflation.
In case of doubt, the ECB will up the ante
We were one of the first institutions to incorporate government bond purchases by the ECB into
our baseline scenario as long ago as August 2014. But today, we can well imagine that the ECB,
which is under strong political pressure, will up the ante this year. At our forecast meeting, we
intensively discussed how this process might look. The ECB could continue buying bonds after
September 2016. But ECB President Draghi already indicated at last Thursday’s press
conference that such a step was possible in the event that inflation does not rise sufficiently
1
EC Monthly Bulletin December 2014, Box 3: Indirect effects of oil price developments on euro area inflation.
ECB Monthly Bulletin September 2014, ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, Box 3: Sensitivity
analyses.
2
2
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
close to the 2% target. The ECB would send a much clearer signal if it raised the monthly
purchase volume from €60bn to, say, €90bn. Of course, it could not justify such a move with the
aim of helping the finance ministers of highly indebted countries. But it could be dressed up with
other economic reasons if required. The inflation rate should remain negative until autumn, and
core inflation will continue to hover at levels just below 1% for a long time to come. Indeed, it is
quite possible that market-based long-term inflation expectations, after trending downwards
since mid-2014 despite the growing probability of ECB bond purchases, will still remain well
below the 2% mark in the second half of the year (chart 2). All in all, we see a 40% probability
that the ECB will raise the monthly purchase volume considerably in the second half of the year,
even though this would further ease reform pressure on the peripheral countries and impede the
resolution of the root causes of the sovereign debt crisis.
How will the Fed react to lower inflation?
Unlike the euro area, the US will soon operate at full employment. And prospects for the US
labour market remain good – not least because the lower oil price gives the US economy an
additional lift. We have raised our US growth forecast for this year from 2.9% to 3.2%. But the
oil-price-induced decline in inflation, with negative inflation rates in the spring, coupled with slow
wage growth, suggest that the Fed will postpone its first rate hike. We now expect to see it in
September rather than June. In case of doubt, the Fed will start rather later instead of pausing
after the first rate hike, which would confuse investors. But in contrast to many market
participants, we adhere to our forecast that the Fed will raise its key rate by 25 basis points at
each meeting (chart 3). On the basis of latest unemployment rate data, at 5.6%, we will soon see
full employment in the US. Wage growth should then accelerate again. It has so far been modest
because an unusually large number of businesses have not granted their employees wage
increases (chart 4). Instead, they opted to reduce real wages through multi-year pay freezes,
rather than restoring balance to the labour market by cutting nominal wages in one stroke during
the recession. 3
EUR-USD weakness to continue
As a result of a more upbeat US economic outlook, the Fed will raise its key rates. The ECB, in
contrast, is acting as a sweeper countering the lack of reform in the euro zone and will probably
step up its QE programme in case of doubt. The central bank money the ECB thereby places in
circulation will seek investment opportunities not only within the euro area but also in the US,
which will support the dollar. The ECB’s unexpectedly large bond purchase programme is a
depreciation programme for EUR-USD. We have lowered our year-end forecast for EUR-USD
from 1.12 to 1.04.
CHART 1: Euro zone - Core inflation has stabilised at ¾%
CHART 2: Euro zone - Long-term inflation expectations
Harmonised index of consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcohol
have collapsed despite bond purchases
and tobacco, percentage change on year
Five-year inflation expectation in percent, five years forward, from
inflation swaps, in percent
1.8
2.8
1.6
2.6
1.4
2.4
1.2
1.0
2.2
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.8
0.4
1.6
0.2
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Eurostat, Commerzbank Research
3
30 January 2015
2014
1.4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
See “Fed meeting: waiting for wage inflation,” Week in Focus, 23 January 2015
3
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Even lower Bund yields
Against the backdrop of fundamental data in the euro area, ten-year German Bund yields ought
to continue trading well below 0.5% for some time to come. The only argument for slightly rising
yields in the second half of the year is the upcoming rate hikes in the US. To be sure, US yields
now have much less of an influence on the euro area’s market than in the past because the
economy in the euro area is unusually weak compared to the US and the ECB is now supporting
the highly indebted peripheral countries. But the ECB will probably not be able to completely
eliminate the influence of the US bond market. We have lowered our year-end forecast for the
ten-year Bund yield from 1.0% to 0.6%.
Box: Why we have raised our forecast for Germany
When the German economy stagnated in summer and fears of recession surfaced in autumn,
we only spoke of a dip in growth which the economy would soon overcome.1 In fact, German
GDP in Q4 expanded by ¼% versus Q3. The fall of the oil price and the euro depreciation
have recently improved the economic environment considerably, and this is reflected in a
marked rise in the Ifo business climate and other sentiment indicators. This applies especially
to Germany, because private households and businesses in Germany – unlike in many other
euro countries – are not too highly indebted and property prices are not falling. We have
raised our 2015 growth forecast for Germany from 1.1% to 1.5%.
CHART 4: US - share of workers with “frozen” wages
CHART 3: US - market is pushing back rate hike
expectations.
Implied probabilities for the federal funds target rate for December
2015. Horizontal axis: FF target rate, vertical axis: probability in %.
Proportion of workers receiving no wage increase in same job over
last 12 months in %. Grey areas: recessions as defined by NBER.
18
35
30
16
25
20
14
15
12
10
5
10
0
0
0.25
28.01.
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
28.12.
Source: San Francisco Fed, NBERCME, Commerzbank Research
4
1.75
8
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Source: Global Insight, San Francisco Fed, NBER, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
India: Modi’s incremental approach
Charlie Lay
Tel. +65 6311 0111
Modi’s reforms to date may appear to be modest, but overhauling decades of inefficient
policies in a matter of months was always going to be too much to ask. We see Modi’s
reforms moving in the right direction, in an incremental and pragmatic manner. A
continued economic recovery will aid reform efforts. We see growth rates of 5.8% in
FY2014-15 and 6.2% in FY2015-16; RBI to cut by another 100bp this year, and USD-INR at
62 by year-end.
PM Modi’s critics note the slow pace of reforms and absence of major announcements since
assuming office in May 2014.
Already in the autumn, we viewed efforts to modernize the bureaucracy, e.g. increased
accountability for the civil sector and a reduction in red tape, as part and parcel of the arduous
task to remake India 4. However, it is unreasonable to expect a major overhaul of business
practices in just eight months after decades of regulation and protectionism.
Modi is adopting a pragmatic, gradual, and calibrated approach to reforms. Modi’s success will
ultimately be measured by whether the foundations for a free-market based economy are laid, as
opposed to a big bang approach to reforms which may not be feasible. After all, Modi will
encounter greater resistance from entrenched and powerful lobby groups. These groups are
likely to be within, and not just outside, his NDA (National Democratic Alliance). This will not only
entail pushing for deregulation across various sectors but also increased investment in essential
infrastructure such as ports and roads and reliable electricity supply.
To his credit, Modi has implemented changes in areas where he can change e.g. he has set in
motion reviews of labour laws that discourage rather than encourage foreign investment;
reduced subsidies for fuel, food, and fertilizers; abolished regulation in diesel prices which
benefited mainly the rich; and lifted FDI limits in insurance and defence to 49% from 26% in July.
India’s problems and economic malaise are deep rooted and cannot be fixed overnight. The
incremental approach may not catapult growth back to the average 9% pace of 2003-2007
anytime soon. We acknowledge that bolder reforms will be needed to propel both the markets
and economy forward. However, the bolder and more potent the reforms, the more challenging
they will be. We see two factors that could restrict the pace going forward. These are:
1) Lacking Upper House majority. NDA has a strong majority in the Lower House (336 out of
543 seats) but is in a minority in the 245-seat Upper House (currently 60 out of 245). This makes
it difficult to push through important bills, with little prospect of this changing in the foreseeable
future.
2) Economic backdrop. A stronger economy would make reforms more palatable. However,
the impetus may have to come from the domestic sector, rather than the external sector as in the
early 2000s, given the benign global recovery. We expect the economy to pick up to 6.2% for
FY2015-16 from 5.8% in the current FY2014-15, which would still fall short of past growth rates.
We see RBI cutting by another 100bp this year, to 6.75%, due to 1) the collapse in inflation on
lower food and energy prices; and 2) government efforts to contain the fiscal deficit. The deficit is
however expected to breach the 4.1% of GDP target for FY2014-15. For FX, we expect RBI to
favour stability rather than a particular level. We see USD-INR relatively unchanged at 62.00 by
end-2015.
4
30 January 2015
See “India: Reforms or modernization of bureaucracy?“, Week in Focus, November 7, 2014.
5
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Thu Lan Nguyen
Tel. +49 69 136 82878
Product idea: Forward Plus in EUR-SEK
Hedge against short-term SEK weakness, profit from appreciation
The ECB has weakened the euro considerably by expanding its asset purchase
programme. The Swedish krona has also climbed against the euro in past weeks. This
puts the Riksbank in an awkward situation; it would like a weaker krona in relation to the
euro given the low inflation rate in Sweden. We see a risk that it will take unconventional
measures to lower the krona at its next meeting.
Like many central banks, Sweden’s Riksbank is in a dilemma. Sweden’s real economy is running
smoothly. The weaker krona, the lower oil price and loose monetary policy are benefiting the
economy. On the other hand, the inflation rate is persistently low. At just below zero since early
2014, it is a growing headache for the Riksbank. The central bank would consequently like to
see a weaker krona, especially versus the euro, as the euro zone is Sweden’s largest trading
partner. However, the ECB has just significantly weakened the EUR with its decision to make
broad-based government bond purchases and Riksbank is now under pressure to become more
expansionary as well to prevent excessive appreciation of the krona. At its last meeting in
December, it had already signalled that it is willing to further loosen monetary policy if need be.
However, as it has already dropped the key interest rate to zero, it now only has unconventional
measures left. The hurdle to such measures is a large one; high and still rising private debt
coupled with the boom on the real estate market in Sweden is causing the central bank a lot of
concern. Further substantial monetary easing could fuel imbalances and market bubbles. We
therefore expect the Riksbank to remain cautious for now and decide in favour of less strong
measures. In December, it held out the prospect of extending its promise to leave the key
interest rate unchanged (currently until mid 2016). But this would only dampen the appreciation
trend if anything, and not reverse it.
We therefore see a risk that the Riksbank will decide on greater measures at its next meeting on
12 February to weaken the krona given the latest downward trend in EUR-SEK . An interest rate
cut to negative territory is conceivable or possibly even its own government bond buying
programme. Both would weigh on the krona, although asset purchases would probably have the
biggest effect on the exchange rate. We advise SEK sellers to hedge against this short-term risk
with a Forward Plus, which would also allow a certain level of participation in SEK appreciation.
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Spot rate (sample calculation)
9.3200
Hedging rate
9.3800
Lower limit (‘trigger’)
8.9500
Hedging nominal
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The Forward Plus allows you to log in a fixed hedging rate. At the same time, you will have
the chance to benefit to a certain extent from an exchange rate trend that is positive for
your underlying position. On the maturity date, a currency exchange will always be carried
out. If, during the tenor of the trade (‘American-style trigger’), the EUR-SEK spot rate
touches or falls below the trigger (8.95) or if the EUR-SEK spot rate trades above the
hedging rate (9.38) at maturity, the currency exchange will only be carried out at the
agreed hedging rate (9.38). If the spot rate has not touched the trigger (8.95) during the
tenor of the trade (‘American style') and the EUR-SEK spot rate trades below the hedging
rate (9.38) at maturity, the net hedging result will be equivalent to the (better) EUR-SEK
spot fixing.
6
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Major publications from 23 – 29 January 2015
Rates Radar: Digging into the €QE details
We scrutinize the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on various market segments.
Scarcity effects will be a key driver over the coming months and look set to push EBG yields
lower and ASW-spreads wider. We set a new target of +40bp for our 10y swap spread widener
and +85bp for our 10-30y BTP flattener as investors will have to extend further along the curve.
We also like shifting 10y core swap spread wideners into the 30y. more
Economic Insight: Spain – The next swing to the left?
Like Greece, Spain could see a left-wing government come into power at the end of the year.
The economic recovery is unlikely to improve the labour market situation enough to secure a
second term of office for the current government. But even a government involving the new
Podemos party is unlikely to make so radical a policy change as to choke the upturn, let alone
trigger a new sovereign debt crisis. Nevertheless, political uncertainty should weigh on Spanish
bonds. more
Economic Insight: Real Estate Monitor Germany
In Germany, prices for residential properties continue rising inexorably – in 2014, they increased
by nearly 3%. Due to low mortgage interest rates and the lack of alternative investments, many
invest in “concrete gold”, and the ECB’s renewed monetary easing will continue to fuel this trend.
Despite this, we do not yet see the German property market in a critical boom phase, although
there are signs of overheating in individual big cities such as Berlin. more
EM Briefing: Singapore – MAS joins the shock and ease bandwagon
Singapore’s central bank (MAS) surprised the market with monetary easing. Without prior notice,
it reduced the slope of the SGD NEER, and USD-SGD jumped by more than 1% to above 1.35.
Given the downgrade in core inflation this year to 0.5-1.5% vs. 2-3% previously, we could see a
further easing this year. The bottom line is an upside bias for USD-SGD which could exceed our
current year-end target of 1.40. more
EM Briefing: LatAm – A case for lower rates
Growth prospects in EM remain under pressure amid continuously falling commodity prices.
Under this optic, we see a reasonable probability of seeing lower rates in the next months in
Chile and Colombia and to a lesser extent in Brazil. Mexico stands apart from this group given its
leverage to the US economy and we see very limited probability of lower rates here. This
asymmetrical regional performance should also manifest itself in FX terms: we continue to favour
MXN at the expense of COP and CLP. more
EM Briefing: Russia – S&P cuts Russia to BB+
Although in line with general market expectations, this will push USD/RUB higher in the
immediate term, especially given all the negative noise out of Ukraine, which must have pushed
S&P ultimately to do the move -- indeed, had there been peace in eastern Ukraine by now, we
would have likely seen S&P hold back on a ratings cut. more
30 January 2015
7
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Preview – The week of 1 to 6 February 2015
Time
Region Indicator
Period
Forecast
Survey
Last
Sunday, 1 February 2015
01:00
CHN
PMI, manufacturing, preliminary
Jan
sa
50.1
50.2
50.1
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
sa
sa
sa
sa
mom, sa
mom, sa
mom, sa
sa
54.0
49.0
51.0
53.0
0.3
-0.4
0.0
55.0
–
–
51.0
52.8
0.2
-0.2
0.0
55.0
53.8
48.4
51.0 (p)
52.5
0.4
0.6
0.0
55.5
Feb
Dec
Jan
%
mom, sa
SAAR, mn
2.50
-3.2
16.7
2.50
-2.0
16.9
2.50
-0.7
16.8
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
sa
sa
mom, k, sa
sa
52.3
57.0
230
55.5
52.3
55.8
220
56.5
52.3 (p)
55.8
241
56.2
mom, sa
yoy
%
sa
% bn, sa
2.0
1.3
0.50
285
-38.0
0.8
0.1
0.50
–
-38.0
-2.4
-0.4
0.50
265
-39.0
0.5
0.0
225
5.5
0.3
-0.6
231
5.6
-0.1
-0.5
252
5.6
Monday, 2 February 2015
08:15
08:45
09:00
09:30
13:30
SPA
ITA
EUR
GBR
USA
• 15:00
PMI, manufacturing
PMI, manufacturing
PMI, manufacturing
PMI, manufacturing
Personal income
Personal spending
Core PCE deflator
ISM-Index, manufacturing
Tuesday, 3 February 2015
03:30
15:00
#
AUD
USA
RBA interest rate decision
Industrial orders
Auto sales
Wednesday, 4 February 2015
09:00
09:30
13:15
15:00
EUR
GBR
USA
PMI, services, final
PMI, services
ADP employment change
ISM-Index (non-manufacturing)
Thursday, 5 February 2015
7:00
GER
Industrial orders
Dec
12:00
13:30
GBR
USA
BoE interest rate decision
Initial claims
Trade balance
Jan 31
Dec
Friday, 6 February 2015
•
7:00
GER
Industrial production
Dec
• 13:30
USA
Non-farm payrolls
Unemployment rate
Jan
Jan
mom, sa
yoy
mom, k, sa
%
Source: Bloomberg. Commerzbank Economic Research; *Time GMT (subtract 5 hours for EST. add 1 hour for CET). # = Possible release; mom/qoq/yoy: change
to previous period in percent. AR = annual rate. sa = seasonal adjusted. wda = working days adjusted; (p) = preliminary; • = data of highest importance for markets
8
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Dr Christoph Balz
Tel. +49 69 136 24889
Economic data preview:
USA: Job engine running smoothly but what about wages?
A solid US labour market report has almost come to be taken for granted, with next
week’s forthcoming January data unlikely to be an exception. However, this time the
focus looks set to be more on wages where the December decline is likely to have proved
to be a one-off. In Germany, the uptrend in manufacturing is expected to have continued
in December.
US payroll growth looks set to come in above 200k for the twelfth consecutive month, albeit with
the increase likely to be smaller than in the previous month. In December, the extraordinarily
mild weather had supported employment and triggered a 252k gain. Back then, the particularly
weather-sensitive construction sector, for instance, reported payroll growth of 50k, which is 30k
above the previous three month average. Therefore, job growth in January is likely to have
deteriorated slightly, to 225k (consensus 231k) which would still imply a respectable
performance. The rate of unemployment appears to have continued its downtrend (for some time
now it has been falling by around 0.1pp per month), probably standing at 5.5% (consensus
5.6%).
The rate would thus be in line with its long-term average so that, on the definition of the FOMC
members, full employment would have been reached. Nevertheless, the Fed hesitates to
implement the turnaround in monetary policy as inflation remains stuck below its target. The
focus of the labour market report will therefore be on wage data. As long as wages fail to
increase, inflation is unlikely to expand on a sustainable basis either. In December, average
hourly wages even came in 0.2% lower than in November, while the year-on-year rate dropped
to 1.7%. Although we cannot identify any particular reason, we believe this is a statistical artefact
and consequently expect to see a countermove in January featuring an above-average increase
in wages. However, this would not change the very moderate rate of wage growth which is
oscillating around 2% year-on-year (chart 5). The doves on the FOMC will thus continue to point
out that there are virtually no indications of an imminent increase in inflation. At our forecast
meeting we have therefore moved the first interest rate hike from June to September (see pages
2 - 4).
Germany: Industry remains in an uptrend
While the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) has yet to turn around, we note first indications
from hard data that the soft spot in German manufacturing was left behind around mid-2014.
Our trend for manufacturing output calculated on the basis of order intake in recent months is
pointing significantly upward again (chart 6). We expect this positive trend to continue. Order
intake in December is likely to have improved by 2% (consensus: 0.8%); we are looking for
industrial production to have expanded by 0.5% (consensus: 0.3%).
CHART 5: USA – Wage growth oscillating around 2%
CHART 6: Germany – Manufacturing trending upward
Average hourly wages, year-on-year change in %
Manufacturing output, index 2010=100 and trend calculated based on
order intake in recent months
112
4.0
3.5
110
3.0
108
2.5
2.0
106
1.5
1.0
2009
104
2012
2010
2011
2012
Source: Global Insight, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
2013
2014
2013
Production
2014
Trend
Source: Global Insight, Commerzbank Research
9
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Central Bank Watch (1)
Fed
Following the FOMC meeting this week, the Fed pledged to
remain “patient” in normalising monetary policy. This rules
out a rate hike before mid-year – which nobody had expected
anyway. The central bankers were more optimistic in their
assessment of the US economy. They have observed “solid”
growth (previously it was described as “moderate”) and
“strong” job gains (previously “solid”). With regard to inflation,
the Fed admitted that it had fallen even further below the 2%
target. However, it implied that it did not attach all that much
weight to the decline in market-based inflation expectations
and expected inflation would rise again in the medium term.
The Fed also underlined that the decline in energy prices is
positive for household purchasing power.
The Fed only very briefly touched on the international risks
that are the subject of intense debate on the market at
present. “International developments“ would be taken into
account together with a wide range of information in
determining how long to maintain zero interest rates. The
Fed is thus trying to keep open the option of a rate hike in
June. We believe a first rate hike in September is somewhat
more likely and we have adjusted our forecast accordingly.
Bernd Weidensteiner
+49 69 136 24527
CHART 7: Expected interest rate for 3-month funds (USD)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
current
Mrz 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
Dez 15
Mrz 16
Futures
29.01.15
22.01.15
Commerzbank
TABLE 1: Consensus forecasts Fed funds rate
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q4 15
Consensus
0.25
0.50
1.00
High
0.50
0.50
1.50
Low
0.25
0.25
0.25
Commerzbank
0.25
0.50
1.50
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
ECB
ECB Executive Board member Coeuré emphasised that the
ECB could not agree to a debt relief that includes Greek
bonds that are located at the ECB.
Coeuré and ECB Council member Visco stressed that the
ECB’s QE programme was “open-ended”. “If we haven’t
achieved what we want to achieve,” said Coeuré, “then we’ll
have to do more, or we have to do it for longer.” At the same
time he warned that “we are absolutely convinced that
whatever we do, it will not have as strong an impact if it is not
accompanied by reforms.”
ECB Executive Board member Praet said that the ECB
expects negative inflation “for a very big part of this year”,
with the turning point probably “around the third quarter”.
According to Executive board member Mersch, monetary
policy "at some point will reach its limits and we are very
close to those already.”
Unsurprisingly, ECB’s Weidmann reiterated doubts over the
effectiveness of quantitative easing in the euro area's bank
based economy at a time when yields are already extremely
low. According to Weidmann, most monetary policy options
had largely been used.
ECB’s Knot, another hawk, said that he wasn’t convinced of
the “necessity and effectiveness” of the QE programme.
Dr Michael Schubert
+49 69 136 23700
10
CHART 8: Expected interest rate for 3-month funds (EUR)
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
current Mrz 15
Futures
Jun 15
29.01.15
Sep 15
22.01.15
Dez 15
Mrz 16
Commerzbank
TABLE 2: Consensus forecasts ECB minimum bid rate
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q4 15
Consensus
0.05
0.05
0.05
High
0.05
0.05
0.05
Low
0.05
0.05
0.05
Commerzbank
0.05
0.05
0.05
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Central Bank Watch (2)
Bank of England (BoE)
In a recent newspaper interview, MPC member Andy
Haldane suggested that the MPC is “in no rush to raise
rates.” Whilst rates will not stay at historically low rates
forever, “when [the] rise comes it is going to be very gradual
… It could be half a percent a year for several years.” This is
one of most dovish pronouncements from the MPC on UK
rates for some time and highlights the extent to which the
recent decline in commodity prices has impacted upon the
BoE’s thinking. Indeed, with the oil price having averaged
below $50/bbl throughout January, there is every likelihood
that the inflation rate at the beginning of the year will have
dipped ever closer to the zero threshold. Moreover, with
2014 GDP figures having been revised down towards the
end of last year, together with a weaker-than-expected
outturn for Q4, the 2015 growth projection – which will be
presented to the MPC at next week’s meeting – will almost
certainly be revised down. The market will be able to hang on
to this as a reason to justify pricing interest rate increases
further out into the future. Indeed the SONIA market is only
pricing a 25 bps rate increase in 14 months’ time (the longest
duration contract available) with a 55% probability.
CHART 9: Expected interest rate for 3-month funds (GBP)
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
current
Mrz 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
Dez 15
Mrz 16
Futures
29.01.15
22.01.15
Commerzbank
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
Peter Dixon
+44 20 7475 4806
RBA (Australia)
The RBA has kept its key interest rate at 2.5% since
September 2013. Moreover, in early December it also stuck
to its outlook of stable interest rates . The economy was
growing at a moderate rate, albeit with some slack remaining
initially, it said. According to the meeting minutes, however,
the members of the RBA Council agreed that further AUD
depreciation would be necessary for growth to become more
balanced following the slump in mining investment triggered
by a nose-dive in commodity prices. A weaker AUD would
improve businesses’ price competitiveness and could thus
revive the non-mining economy.
Now that several central banks recently lowered their key
interest rates in surprise moves and the ECB has announced
its QE programme, this has also driven rate cut expectations
in Australia. However, these were dampened by the latest
Australian inflation data. The relevant figures for the RBA
came in surprisingly high. We believe the RBA will stick to its
2.5% key interest rate next week but mention the option of
rate cuts in its interest outlook. Its new monetary report
should feature the details of its latest forecasts and refer to
the impact of the further slide in oil prices on the Australian
economy.
CHART 10: Expected interest rate for 3-month funds (AUD)
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
current
Mrz 15 Jun 15
Futures
29.01.15
Sep 15 Dez 15
22.01.15
Mrz 16
Commerzbank
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
Elisabeth Andreae
+49 69 136 24052
30 January 2015
11
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Markus Koch
Tel. +49 69 136 87685
Bond market preview:
Political markets: New Bund yield lows ahead!
The interest rate markets in the euro area will probably continue to be mainly driven by
political events. For this reason the incoming economic data will have little effect, even
though, like inflation data from the euro area or the US employment report, they can
normally move the markets. We continue to assume that the yield lows in long-dated
Bunds are still ahead of us and have revised downwards our yield forecasts for the euro
area and US Treasuries.
TABLE 3: Weekly outlook for yields and curves
Yields (10 years)
Curve (2 - 10 years)
Bunds
US Treasuries
Sideways
Moderately rising
Flatter
Flatter
Source: Commerzbank Research
Outlook for the Bund
future,
30 January – 6 February
Economy
↓
Inflation
↑
Monetary policy
↑
Trend
→
Supply
→
Risk aversion
↑
Political events and the ECB’s bond purchase programme have pushed yields for ten-year
Bunds to new all-time lows at around 0.3%. Politics will remain particularly in focus. This applies,
of course, to developments in Greece. But the election of an Italian president, which began
yesterday – normally not a market-moving event – could also have consequences, because
elections in Southern Europe will remain a highly sensitive issue this year (chart 12). Against this
backdrop, neither today’s consumer prices data from the euro area – the inflation rate
presumably dropped to -0.6% in January – nor German industrial production at the end of next
week should visibly move the markets.
We continue to assume that Bunds have yet to see their yield lows. Moreover, we have revised
our forecasts downwards against the backdrop of expected speculation about an expansion of
the ECB’s bond purchase programme, global deflation fears and numerous political risks
(chart 11). Some 60% of all outstanding Bunds are now trading at negative yield levels, and
somewhat stronger economic activity in the euro area will not change this.
In the US, we have slightly lowered our forecast profile, but still expect yields to rise (chart 11).
We continue to assume that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than is currently implied by
forward rates on the US money market (see page 2). For this reason we see the yield of ten-year
US Treasuries at around 2.3% by end-2015. This means the US yield curve would flatten from
the short end, with the yield spread versus Bunds rising further. The employment report due out
next Friday should confirm our outlook of strong economic growth in the US. But since monthon-month payroll gains will probably turn out slightly lower than in December, they are unlikely to
provide fresh impetus for the market. Only a stronger wage increase will cause Treasury yields
to rise more noticeably.
CHART 11: Upward correction in store?
CHART 12: Politics stress the BTP-Bund spread
Yields of ten-year government bonds, in %, forecasts from February
2015
Ten-year government bonds, yield of Bunds and yield spread
between Bunds and Italian bonds
5
4
3
2
1
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
UST
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
12
2014
2015
2016
Bunds
Source: Global Insight, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Esther Reichelt
Tel. +49 69 136 41505
FX market preview:
Monetary tectonic
While the Fed is still on a normalisation course, most other G10 central banks are
generally pursuing monetary easing. With this increasing divergence of monetary policy,
the USD is getting stronger. We have adjusted our forecasts.
TABLE 4: Expected trading ranges for next week
Range
Bias
EUR-USD
1.1100-1.1700
Ò
EUR-GBP
0.7400-0.7700
Range
Bias
Ò
EUR-JPY
131.00-137.50
Ò
GBP-USD
1.4850-1.5300
Î
USD-JPY
115.00-121.00
Î
EUR-CHF
1.0000-1.0800
Î
Source: Commerzbank Research
The fact that the ECB and Fed are marching in different monetary policy directions is not new.
But the consequences of this have been underestimated on the whole so far. The ECB has now
gone a step further and announced a surprisingly high volume for its planned purchase of
government bonds. Furthermore, the ECB does not specify a definitive end to the purchases.
These are intended to be carried out until September 2016. However, if inflation does not pick
up, the programme can be extended. There is therefore much to suggest that euro weakness will
last for quite a long time. As we believe the market is currently underestimating the Fed’s
upcoming normalisation of monetary policy, we expect pressure on EUR-USD to continue.
Against this backdrop, we anticipate much lower EUR-USD rates in the course of the year than
previously predicted. That said, at 1.04 at year-end, EUR-USD should remain above parity.
Unlike the Fed, other central banks have distanced themselves from a normalisation of monetary
policy – with consequences for the respective currencies (Chart 13). It started with the Bank of
England, which continued to push back its rate hike expectations due to falling inflation. The
market meanwhile no longer expects an interest rate increase this year. Even more serious was
the change in course of central banks of commodity currencies. Amid falling commodity prices –
especially the much lower oil price – central banks in Norway and Canada have surprisingly
lowered interest rates. We have therefore also adjusted our NOK and CAD forecast. On
Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to follow its neighbours in New Zealand and
signal the possibility of rate cuts (Chart 14).
CHART 13: Monetary policy course moves
exchange rates
CHART 14: Commodity prices fall
Commodity prices, in AUD, year-on-year change in per cent
Predicted change versus USD, January to December 2015
60
NOK
SEK
40
NZD
AUD
20
CAD
0
CHF
GBP
-20
JPY
-40
EUR
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
Source: Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
-60
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Commerzbank Research
13
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Andreas Hürkamp
Tel. +49 69 136 45925
Equity Market preview:
DAX should start sideways trends following ECB driven bull run
The ifo recovery, the weak euro and the ECB QE have resulted in a 30% DAX rally since
mid-October 2014. Many of our DAX bull trends have already been worked off, and risk
factors such as the uncertain Fed policy, weakening growth in China, the crisis in Russia
and the reform rollback in Germany might move onto investors' radar screen. Therefore
the DAX should move sideways between 10,000 and 11,200 in the coming months.
TABLE 5: DAX has outperformed S&P 500 by 12 percentage points in January
Earnings 2015e
Performance (%) since
Index
31/12
30/09
Index points
Growth (%)
30/06
current
31/12
current
31/12
current
P/E 2015e
31/12
DAX 30
10,711
9.2
13.1
8.9
774.8
779.7
9.9
10.2
13.8
12.6
MDAX
18,720
10.5
17.0
11.3
1066
1053
14.2
13.9
17.6
16.1
Euro Stoxx 50
3,359
6.8
4.1
4.0
237.2
242.2
7.8
9.9
14.2
13.0
S&P 500
2,002
-2.8
1.5
2.1
121.6
124.7
5.1
7.6
16.5
16.5
Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, I/B/E/S
The DAX has already moved to our 2015 DAX fair value of 10,800, and three of the four key bull
trends in our bullish DAX call in November have already boosted the DAX:
•
ifo recovery – since November the ifo index has already risen for three months in a row,
•
weakening euro – since November the euro has depreciated strongly,
•
falling € inflation expectations – the ECB started QE in January.
The ifo recovery, the weakening euro and ECB QE have resulted in a powerful 17 percentage
point outperformance of the DAX (up 15%) versus the S&P 500 (down 2%) since our 2015
outlook was published in mid-November. Our fourth key DAX bull trend – we expect DAX total
dividends to rise by 13% to €30.3bn – should continue to support the DAX.
However, in the coming months some of our key negative DAX trends might move onto investors
radar screen. The tight US labour market should result in discussions about when the Fed is set
to hike key rates. Economic data in China should remain lacklustre – we have a belowconsensus GDP growth forecast of 6.5%. Ukraine and Russia should remain key risk factors for
DAX investors. And investors might start to discuss the reform rollback in German with a strong
rise in wages against the backdrop of looming strikes in Germany.
Since our November outlook, worldwide equity markets suffered a hefty decline in 2015 earnings
forecast of 4% to 6%. Analysts have to factor in the new world of low nominal world GDP growth
– 3% real world GDP growth, but very low inflation (chart 15). And since our outlook was
published, European P/E ratios have risen strongly. For the Euro Stoxx 50, for example, the P/E
ratio has risen to 14.2x which is nearly 30% above the 10-year average of 11.1x (chart 16).
CHART 15: Worldwide decline in earnings expectations
CHART 16: Euro Stoxx 50 P/E 30% above 10-year average
Expected EPS 2015 for several indices, indexed, Feb 2013 = 100
Euro Stoxx 50: 12-month forward P/E over the last ten years
105
15
100
95
13
90
11
85
80
9
75
70
65
Jan-13
7
Jul-13
Jan-14
DAX
Euro Stoxx 50
Source: I/B/E/S, Commerzbank Research
14
10-year
average
Jul-14
FTSE 100
S&P 500
Jan-15
5
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Factset, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Barbara Lambrecht
Tel. +49 69 136 22295
Commodities market preview:
Platinum metals – a bit of fish, a bit of fowl
The huge oversupply should continue to weigh on the oil price, as US stocks are set to
mark a new record high next week. Base metal prices are likely to tread water as China’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index should have barely changed in January. Palladium on the
other hand is likely to profit from the booming car industry in the US. Cotton prices
should also pick up as the US National Cotton Council will probably indicate a possible
substantial decline in US acreage on the back of lower prices.
TABLE 6: Trends in important commodities
Per cent change
29 Jan.
Trend Commodity specific events
1 week
1 month
1 year short-term
Brent (USD a barrel)
48.7
0.1
-17.5
-54.3
Þ
Copper (USD a ton)
5355
-5.5
-14.9
-24.9
Ö
Gold (USD a troy ounce)
1273
-2.3
7.5
0.4
Ö
ounce)
790
1.7
-2.5
10.5
Ü
Cotton (USD/pound)
59
2.7
-4.3
-30.7
Ü
Palladium (USD/a troy
US crude oil stocks (4)
US vehicle sales January (3)
NCC: First estimate of US acreage (7)
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
The breather on the oil market in Europe will probably end soon as Brent prices will presumably
no longer be able to escape the downward pull on the other side of the Atlantic. Continually
rising US crude stocks caused the price of WTI to drop to a 6-year low at mid-week. The build-up
of stocks should continue for now, as it is currently very profitable to buy oil, store it and sell it
forward. The front-month contract is about 10 dollars cheaper than the contract due in a year’s
time (Chart 17). There is also more downside potential in the short term from the still-optimistic
positioning of speculative investors. That said, low prices will dampen US shale oil production in
the medium term, which will reduce market oversupply. Prices should therefore recover on a
sustainable basis in the second half of the year.
Platinum group metals are precious metals that are largely used in industry. Prices have
therefore developed as follows so far this year: on the one hand, platinum and palladium have
not risen in price as much as gold, on the other hand, their price has not fallen at such a sharp
rate as base metals either (Chart 18). Platinum prices have outperformed palladium because of
the high importance of platinum jewellery in China. Platinum is currently cheaper than gold,
which should attract greater buying interest for jewellery. Palladium should catch up next week
though; it is profiting more than its sister metal from the booming US car market, as it is primarily
used in catalytic converters in gasoline engines. Both platinum group metals will clearly rise in
price over the year in our view.
CHART 17: Contango favours stockbuilding
CHART 18: Platinum metals: partly precious, partly
industrial
Deviation of US crude oil stocks from 5-year average in million
barrels, price gap between front-month WTI forward contract and
contract due in 12 months in USD per barrel
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2005
indexed 31 December 2014 = 100
25
115
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2007
2009
2011
US stocks (LS)
Source: EIA ,Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
30 January 2015
2013
-15
2015
Price gap (RS)
110
105
100
95
90
1/1/2015
Gold
1/10/2015
1/19/2015
Palladium
Platin
1/28/2015
LMEX
Source: LME, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research
15
Economic Research | Week in Focus
Commerzbank forecasts
TABLE 7: Growth and inflation
Real GDP (%)
Inflation rate (%)
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
USA
Canada
2.4
3.2
2.8
1.6
0.2
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.0
1.0
2.0
Japan
0.3
1.0
1.5
2.7
0.7
0.7
Euro area
0.8
1.1
1.2
0.4
-0.1
1.2
- Germany
1.5
1.5
1.7
0.9
0.5
2.4
- France
0.4
0.7
0.9
0.5
-0.1
0.7
- Italy
-0.3
0.1
0.5
0.2
-0.4
0.7
- Spain
1.4
2.3
2.3
-0.1
-0.7
0.5
- Portugal
1.0
1.5
2.0
-0.4
-0.9
0.5
- Ireland
5.2
3.5
3.5
0.4
0.3
1.4
- Greece
1.0
2.0
2.5
-1.2
-1.5
0.0
United Kingdom
2.6
2.4
2.4
1.5
0.5
1.6
Switzerland
1.9
1.3
1.3
0.0
-1.5
0.0
China
7.3
6.5
6.5
2.3
2.0
2.0
India
5.8
6.2
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.0
Brazil
0.3
-0.3
1,1
6.3
6.8
6.4
Russia
0.6
-3.7
1.6
7.8
11.3
7.2
World
3.1
3.2
3.5
• The ultra-expansionary Fed policy is boosting
the US economy. We expect US growth to
markedly accelerate.
• Growth in China is decelerating on decreasing
house prices and gradual policy adjustment.
• The recovery in the euro zone will only
continue at a slow pace. GDP growth will
remain markedly lower than that of the USA.
• EMU has survived the sovereign debt crisis,
but is gradually evolving into an “Italian-style
monetary union”.
• The German economy is set to continue
outperforming the rest of the euro area – partly
because ECB key rates are much too low for
Germany.
• High unemployment in most countries is
keeping inflation low for the time being. In the
long term, however, inflation is likely to rise, as
central banks have given up some of their
independence.
TABLE 8: Interest rates (end-of-quarter)
29.01.2015
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
Federal funds rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.50
3-months Libor
0.25
0.25
0.30
0.75
1.25
1.65
2 years*
0.51
0.55
0.70
1.10
1.75
2.30
5 years*
1.27
1.40
1.50
1.85
2.25
2.65
10 years*
1.75
1.90
2.00
2.20
2.30
2.40
Spread 10-2 years
124
135
130
110
55
10.00
Swap-Spread 10 years
15
10
10
15
15
15.00
Minimum bid rate
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3-months Euribor
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2 years*
-0.18
-0.10
-0.10
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
5 years*
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.05
10 years*
0.35
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.60
Spread 10-2 years
53
50
60
65
65
65
Swap-Spread 10 years
38
45
45
40
40
40
Bank Rate
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
3-months Libor
0.56
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.85
2 years*
0.36
0.40
0.60
0.90
1.10
1.30
10 years*
1.42
1.60
1.70
1.90
2.00
2.10
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
USA
Euro area
• Fed interest rate hikes are on the cards from
September 2015, due to a continuously
decreasing US unemployment rate and the
expectation that wages will pick up.
• The focus on the Fed’s lift-off will put
moderate upward pressure on US$ long-end
rates. A return to 2½% for 10y UST yields is
only on the cards for mid-2016. The curve is in
for a textbook-style flattening in the coming
quarters, led by rising short-end rates.
• We see a 40% chance that the ECB will
increase the monthly volume of purchases of
government bonds significantly in the second
half of 2015.
• 10y Bund yields are likely to mark new record
lows in Q1 owing to the ECB’s QE. Thereafter,
yields should edge up slowly. The structurally
low interest rate environment remains intact
for longer.
• Risk premiums of peripheral government
bonds are set to decline further amid ECB
bond purchases.
United Kingdom
TABLE 9: Exchange rates (end-of-quarter)
29.01.2015
Q1 15
• USD should further profit from the
expectations
of
Fed
interest
rate
normalization. Current USD rates have not
EUR/CHF
1.04
1.01
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.97
priced in the speed of rate hikes that we
expect.
EUR/GBP
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.72
0.71
0.70
• The euro is under pressure as a result of the
EUR/SEK
9.31
9.20
9.10
9.00
9.10
9.15
persistent deflation fears in the euro zone and
EUR/NOK
8.82
9.20
9.10
9.00
8.90
8.80
an ECB policy that could even expand
government bond purchases.
EUR/PLN
4.22
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.30
4.30
• CEE currencies have benefited from a dovish
EUR/HUF
311
310
315
317
317
318
ECB backdrop, but rate cuts by local central
EUR/CZK
27.82
28.50
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
banks will reverse these gains, going forward.
HUF remains the vulnerable currency, while
AUD/USD
0.78
0.82
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.78
PLN trade range-bound, and CZK continues to
NZD/USD
0.73
0.75
0.73
0.71
0.70
0.69
float up towards 29.0.
USD/CAD
• The upward trend in CNY against USD should
1.25
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.30
1.32
continue to pause for the time being, due to
USD/CNY
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.22
6.20
weaker growth in China and a strong dollar
Source: Bloomberg. Commerzbank Economic Research; bold change on last week; * Treasuries, Bunds, Gilts, JGBs
EUR/USD
1.13
1.12
1.10
1.06
1.04
1.02
USD/JPY
118
117
120
122
125
127
16
30 January 2015
Economic Research | Week in Focus
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