Weekly Calls - ICICI Direct

Weekly Calls
January 27, 2015
Weekly Technical Picks
Exhibit 1: Astec Lifesciences
Astec Lifesciences (ASTLIF)
Code
ASTLIF
CMP
| 113.65
Comment
Appears holding the
accelerated Green support
line.
Action
Buy in the range of 114-111
Reco. Date
January 27, 2015
Stop-loss
| 106
Targets
| 130 / higher
Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Weekly Candlestick Chart
Trend Scanner
Positive Trends
Weekly Candlestick Patterns
Scrip Name
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
5-day SMA
Ambuja Cement
252.5
229.9
234.2
248.4
61.60
Cipla
Bosch
Delivery % 5 days Averge
677.7
632.2
636.1
659.1
51.80
21,834.3
19,424.0
20,363.3
21,637.2
51.60
100.7
92.0
95.5
99.7
44.20
Gabriel India
State Bank of india
327.5
309.0
312.1
321.9
51.00
Tata Motors DVR
373.8
337.2
342.8
360.0
56.50
Bullish Reversal Pattern
Scrip Name
Bullish Engulfing
Scrip Name
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
Biocon
413.1
437.8
422.6
5-day SMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
425.1
Scrip Name
LTP
Bearish Engulfing
Gabriel
100.65
Raymond
Exide Industries
201.75
Patel Engineering
Bullish contunation pattern
510.75
92.85
Bearish contunation pattern
Ambuja Cement
252.50
Biocon
413.10
Cipla
677.65
M&M Finance
251.80
Infosys
Negative Trends
Bearish Reversal Pattern
LTP
2215.05
State Bank of india
327.45
Tata Motors DVR
373.75
39.00
Piercing Line
Note: Positive / Negative Trend stocks are scanned on the basis of mechanical signal.
Stocks which are trading above their 50 day SMA (Simple moving average) and
where 50 day SMA is rising for at least three sessions are considered in positive
trend and further filtered for a momentum signal of a cross over between 5 and 20
period moving average. Opposite is true for Negative trending stocks.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Oil India
553.20
Indian Hotel
118.60
Note: For Candlestick pattern description please refer towards
the end of the report.
Page 4
Market Activity
Domestic Indices
Index
Current
CNX Nifty
S&P BSE Sensex
Nifty Future
S&P BSE 500
S&P BSE Midcap
S&P BSE Small cap
8835.60
29278.84
8844.40
11343.20
10695.67
11366.09
Previous Change%
8513.80
28121.89
8535.05
11013.09
10633.11
11309.93
Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
3.78
4.11
3.62
3.00
0.59
0.50
ITC
-3.0
-1.3
TECHM
-1.2
HEROM OTOCO
-1.1
TCS
-0.5
KOTAKBANK
8.4
W IP RO
France
4,640.7
6.0%
Germany
10,649.6
4.7%
UK
6,832.8
4.3%
Japan
17,511.8
3.8%
Hong Kong
24,850.5
3.1%
US
2,051.8
1.6%
Brazil
48,775.3
-0.5%
China
3,351.8
-0.7%
Commodities
in US $
Close
Prev. Close
1275.36
1276.83
-0.12
Copper (tonne)
5628.5
5681
-0.92
Brent Crude (brl)
48.23
49.75
-3.06
Gold (ounce)
9.1
SUNP HARM A
Global Indices Weekly Performance
%Chg
9.8
AXISBANK
-10.0
Sectoral Indices – Performance
TATAM OTORS
11.9
BHARTIARTL
12.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Institutional Activity
FII
Previous Week
6388
MTD
7733
Oct to Dec quarter
14713
Year 2014
98150
*Previous week figure are povisional figure
*MTD- Month till date
*YTD- Year till date
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods
Current
29278.84
8835.6
20106.78
22984
17016
1Wk
1M
3M
4.1
3.8
4.0
4.4
5.0
5.5
5.8
6.3
6.3
8.8
8.3
9.6
9.9
21.2
11.5
Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap
10269.95
8118.69
15506.76
11228.25
10510.06
9901.43
2187.59
1672.99
11343.2
10695.67
11366.09
3.5
-0.4
4.1
2.2
4.5
1.5
2.6
3.3
3.0
0.6
0.5
6.4
4.2
5.1
5.7
-3.1
-0.2
3.3
6.0
5.6
6.1
4.5
7.1
9.6
11.5
10.3
-7.6
-7.9
3.9
10.9
10.4
11.8
9.0
DII
-4228
1468
14654
23843
Page 5
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Date
US
Event
26-Jan
Markit US Composite PMI
26-Jan
Markit US Services PMI
26-Jan
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
27-Jan
Durable Goods Orders
27-Jan
New Home Sales MoM
28-Jan
MBA Mortgage Applications
29-Jan
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper/Lower Bound)
29-Jan
Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims
30-Jan
GDP Annualized QoQ
30-Jan
Chicago Purchasing Manager
30-Jan
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
India
30-Jan
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
30-Jan
GDP Annual Estimate YoY
China
28-Jan
Leading Index
UK
26-Jan
BBA Loans for House Purchase
27-Jan
Index of Services MoM
27-Jan
GDP QoQ
28-Jan
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
29-Jan
CBI Reported Sales
30-Jan
GfK Consumer Confidence
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 6
NOTES:
•
Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
•
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing
basis
•
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 4-6% and trail stoploss on
remaining position to the entry point
•
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in
prescribed range then the recommendation is considered not initiated
•
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we
intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail
.
Trading Portfolio allocation
•
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical
research products
•
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
•
Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
•
For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal
amount to each recommendation
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation
Products
Allocations
Product wise
Max allocation
allocation
in 1 stock
Return Objective
Number of Calls
Frontline Stocks
Mid-cap stocks
Duration
Daily Calls
8%
2-3%
3-4 Stocks
0.50-1%
2-3%
Intraday
Short term Delivery
6%
3-5%
7-10 p.m
4-5%
7-10%
Opportunity based
Weekly Calls
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Weekly Technical
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Monthly Call
15%
5%
2-3 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Monthly Technical
15%
2-4%
5-8 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Techno Funda
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
6 Months
Technical Breakout
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
3-6 Months
Cash in Hand
10%
-
-
-
-
-
100%
Candle
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Candlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore,
are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in
complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of
the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls,
and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes
short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open
but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two
candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of
sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish
trend. The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior
up trend has stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white
real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price
opens over the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should
fall well into the prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a
very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Daga, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
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Page 11