PV Technology Development Revolution by Evolution

PV Technology Development
Revolution by Evolution
Gaëtan Masson
Vice-Chairman
JRC Round Table on EU PV Industry
Brussels 27 01 2015
PV Market
40 GW
in 2014
(pvmarketalliance.com)
100 Bn EUR
Some numbers
5%
Commercial PV technologies
Efficiencies will continue to increase
25
silicon
siliciu
m
15
thin
films
10
Thin-film CdTe
5
Thin-film aSi/µcSi
Thin-film aSi
Year
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
0
2000
Efficiency (%)
20
Wafer silicon - high end
mono
Wafer silicon mainstream mono
Wafer silicon mainstream multi
Thin-film CIGS
And more to come
Wafer/thin-film hybrids, etc.
25
silicon
siliciu
m
15
thin
films
10
Thin-film CdTe
5
Thin-film aSi/µcSi
Thin-film aSi
Year
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
0
2000
Efficiency (%)
20
Wafer silicon - high end
mono
Wafer silicon mainstream mono
Wafer silicon mainstream multi
Thin-film CIGS
PV technologies
Critical success factors (1)
 Economies of scale have largely been reached
for mature technologies
 GW-scale factories are a reality already today
 Key drivers for further cost reduction are now:
 increase of efficiency & energy yield (incl. bifaciality)
 low materials consumption / low-cost materials
PV technologies
Critical success factors (2)
 Additional drivers / value-adding features:
 long lifetime / high reliability  cost of capital !
 overall sustainability
 optional: added functionality/ special features, e.g.
shade tolerance, partial transparency, aesthetics,
flexibility of size/shape, anti-fouling, etc.
 Total quality control and labeling (technical
quality, environmental quality, CSR, etc.) may
gain value in different markets
PV technologies
Market differentiation (1)
 Trend of increasing module efficiencies will
continue for decades to come
 Toolbox of science and technology is well filled
 Europe is very well-positioned in most segments
of research and innovation
 High module efficiency (at competitive cost)
will be decisive for sustainable success in the
main GW-scale markets: it is the levy for cost
reduction at system and LCoE levels
PV technologies
Market differentiation (2)
 Added functionality/ special features will allow
the development of new markets (incl. BIPV)
 The niches of yesterday may become the GWscale market segments of tomorrow
The broader picture:
€ vs ¥
SOPHIA Symposium – 22 01 2015 – Chambéry, FR
Thank you for your attention!