COMMERZBANK: GOLD: Risk of setback following strong start to year

Commodity Research | Commodity Spotlight
Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals
11 February 2015
Gold: Risk of setback following strong start to year
The gold price rose in January despite a firm US dollar. The gains were triggered by
the announcement of extensive bond purchases by the ECB, the surprising
decoupling of the Swiss franc from the euro by the SNB and the renewed flaring up of
the Greek debt crisis following the election victory of Syriza. The gold price is also
likely to continue profiting from the ultra-loose monetary policy pursued by the ECB.
However, we expect the gold price to suffer a renewed setback in the summer months
because the market is underestimating the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Gold is likely to
be trading at $1,250 per troy ounce and €1,200 per troy ounce by year’s end.
The gold price got off to a similarly good start to the new year as it did last year, increasing
by nearly 9% in USD in January. For the first time since August 2014, gold briefly exceeded
the $1,300 per troy ounce mark – what is particularly remarkable is that this happened
despite a significantly appreciating US dollar. After all, a firmer US dollar normally weighs on
the alternative currency that is gold. In euro terms, gold was thus able to gain by a full 18%
to achieve a 21-month high of €1,166 per troy ounce at the end of January (chart 1). That
said, it has shed some of these gains again in the meantime.
Commerzbank Forecasts 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Gold
1225
1150
1175
Silver
17.0
16.0
16.5
Platinum
1225
1200
1250
775
Palladium
USD per troy ounce
750
800
Precious metals
A number of factors played their part in the strong gold price in January: The ECB
announced on 22 January that it would be buying government bonds and other securities
worth a total of €60 billion each month starting from March. Given that the programme is
supposed to run for a period of 19 months, this will increase the ECB’s balance sheet by
€1.14 trillion. An increase in the ECB’s balance sheet in recent years usually went hand in
hand with a rising gold price in euros (chart 2, page 2). In mid-January, the Swiss National
Bank (SNB) decoupled the Swiss franc from the euro in a completely unexpected move.
Because this happened one week before the broad-based ECB bond purchases were
announced, some market participants regarded it as a sign of the SNB’s lack of confidence
in the ECB’s monetary policy. Apparently this was seen as a signal to purchase gold. Gold
ETFs saw strong inflows in the days following the SNB’s decision. The clear victory of the
radical left-wing and reform-critical Syriza party in the Greek parliamentary elections at the
end of January ultimately caused the Greek debt crisis to flare up again. As a result, the
interest rates for Greek bonds rose significantly and increased withdrawals were made from
Greek bank accounts out of fear that Greece would leave the Eurozone. All of this can
explain the strength of the gold price in euros. The decline in yields on 10-year US
Treasuries in January gave the gold price in US dollars a boost for a time, as this drove
down real interest rates despite falling inflation. The geopolitical risks such as the escalation
of the conflict in eastern Ukraine are also likely to have played their part in this.
CHART 1: Gold
price begins the new year with marked gains
1700
1600
1500
1300
Head of Commodity Research
1250
Eugen Weinberg
1200
+49 69 136 43417
[email protected]
1150
Analyst
1100
Carsten Fritsch
1050
+49 69 136 21006
[email protected]
1000
Analyst
950
Barbara Lambrecht
900
+49 69 136 22295
[email protected]
850
Analyst
1400
1300
1200
1100
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Gold price in USD per troy ounce, left
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Gold price in EUR per troy ounce, right
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Michaela Kuhl
+49 69 136 29363
[email protected]
Analyst
Daniel Briesemann
For important disclosure information please see page 6.
research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available
+49 69 136 29158
[email protected]
Commodity Research | Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals
Uncertainty over Greece
suggests further ETF
inflows
All this has certainly contributed to the remarkable shift in sentiment that we have seen among
ETF investors in recent weeks. Holdings in gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg climbed by 65.5
tons in January (chart 3). These were the most pronounced net inflows in any month since
September 2012, the inflows happening in the second half of the month and continuing in early
February. In the short term, the uncertainty over forthcoming developments in Greece suggests
that we will see further ETF inflows. Unless an aid programme is agreed, Greece risks running
out of money by the end of February and being unable to service its debts. Furthermore, the
ECB will no longer be accepting Greek bonds as collateral for its monetary policy operations with
effect from mid-February. This makes refinancing considerably more expensive for Greek banks
and could lead to more withdrawals from Greek bank accounts.
Plus ECB bond
purchases and risk of
global devaluation race
From March the ECB will be beginning its programme of extensive bond purchases. Besides the
direct effects on the gold price mentioned at the beginning of this article, there is also the danger
of a global devaluation race. The indirect aim of the ECB’s bond purchases is to weaken the
euro in order to generate inflation. The Japanese central bank has already been pursuing this
objective with its ultra-expansionary monetary policy. The central banks of Canada and Australia
unexpectedly lowered their interest rates recently, no doubt in a bit to weaken their currencies
too. Because it is largely beyond the control of central banks and cannot be multiplied at will,
gold should profit from this in the medium term.
Probability of Fed interest
rate hikes underestimated
in contrast
We nonetheless expect the gold price to suffer a renewed setback during the summer months,
as the market is underestimating the probability of the US Federal Reserve implementing
interest rate hikes this year. Our economists envisage a first rate hike in September, followed by
further interest rate increases at subsequent meetings. The moment the Fed hints at this at one
of its next meetings and the market begins pricing in this factor accordingly, US bond yields are
likely to rise to markedly and the gold price to come under pressure. Expectations of interest rate
hikes have returned to the market after the robust US labour market data on 6 February. Hence,
the market’s response gave a foretaste of this already. Real interest rates will increase even
more sharply when the rate of inflation dips temporarily below zero, meaning that gold will face
considerable headwind from this side. Against this backdrop, one risk factor is also the market
positioning of speculative financial investors. These have expanded their net long positions in
gold by more than 70% since the beginning of the year to the highest level since October 2012 in
early February (chart 4, page 4).
Lower price in summer,
recovery by year’s end
We therefore expect the gold price to fall to $1,150 per troy ounce this summer, though it should
recover to $1,250 per troy ounce by year’s end. Real interest rates look set to decline again
towards the end of the year as inflation should begin rising in the fourth quarter. What is more,
the more volatile performance of the US equity markets is likely to drive capital back into gold,
which points to ongoing inflows into the gold ETFs. The ultra-loose monetary policy of the ECB
and other central banks likewise suggests a higher gold price. That said, the appreciation of the
US dollar will doubtless limit the rise in the gold price. Gold in euros should fare considerably
better and increase by year’s end to €1,200 per troy ounce, which would constitute a rise of a
good 20% year-on-year.
CHART 2: ECB
bond purchases tend to drive up gold price
ECB balance sheet in EUR billion, gold in EUR per troy ounce
3500
1600
3000
1400
2500
1200
1000
2000
CHART 3: Gold
ETFs seeing inflows again of late
Monthly change in gold ETF holdings in tons
100
50
0
800
1500
600
1000
400
500
200
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
ECB balance sheet, left
Gold price, right
Source: ECB, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
2
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
11 February 2015
Commodity Research | Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals
At a glance
TABLE 1: Our forecasts
Current
USD per troy ounce
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
1234
16.9
1209
771
Quarterly average
Q1 15
1225
17.0
1225
775
Q2 15
1150
16.0
1200
750
Q3 15
1175
16.5
1250
800
Q4 15
1250
18.0
1300
850
Yearly average
Q1 16
1250
18.5
1350
875
Q2 16
1250
18.5
1375
900
Q3 16
1300
19.0
1400
925
Q4 16
1350
20.0
1450
950
2014
1260
19.1
1384
800
2015
1200
17.0
1250
790
2016
1300
19.0
1400
910
Quarterly averages, based on spot prices; Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
TABLE 2: ETF holdings (weekly data)
Gold ETFs (in '000 ounces)
Silver ETFs (in '000 ounces)
Platinum ETFs (in '000 ounces)
Palladium ETFs (in '000 ounces)
Date Holdings
06.02.15 53945.0
06.02.15 621280.1
06.02.15
2544.4
06.02.15
2976.4
Total net change
% change
1 week 1 month
1 year
1 year
450.9
2508.2
-1900.7
-3.4
254.8 -1831.2
837.9
0.1
-62.1
-51.0
83.1
3.4
-62.8
-64.5
849.1
39.9
52 weeks
High
Low
56791.2
51436.8
647387.5 620442.2
2856.4
2461.3
3083.6
2090.7
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
TABLE 3: Net long positions of money managers (weekly data)
Date
03.02.15
03.02.15
03.02.15
03.02.15
Gold (in '000 contracts)
Silver (in '000 contracts)
Platinum (in '000 contracts)
Palladium (in '000 contracts)
Level
148.326
38.885
21.991
17.965
Total net change
1 week 1 month
1 year
-4.911
54.130
104.674
-2.837
17.078
36.507
-1.949
5.593
-1.069
-1.235
-1.508
2.186
52 weeks
High
Low
153.237
29.863
45.943
-7.638
42.109
12.06
25.804
14.617
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
TABLE 4: History
Current
USD per troy ounce
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
1234
16.9
1209
771
% change
1 week 1 month y-t-d
y-o-y
-2.7
-2.5
-2.7
-2.6
-4.4
-16.4
-13.0
7.3
1.0
2.6
-1.9
-3.9
4.2
7.8
0.0
-3.3
History
Q113
1632
30.1
1632
741
Q213
1417
23.2
1467
714
Q313
1330
21.5
1453
724
Q413
1272
20.8
1397
724
Q114
1292
20.5
1429
745
Q214
1257
19.7
1448
816
Q314
1282
19.7
1434
862
Q414
1201
16.5
1229
787
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
TABLE 5: World Official Gold Holdings (monthly data)
Country
USA
Germany
IMF
Italy
France
Russia
tonnes
8,133.5
3,384.2
2,814.0
2,451.8
2,435.4
1,208.2 (+58.4)
Country
China
Switzerland
Japan
Netherlands
India
Turkey
tonnes
1,054.1
1,040.1
765.2
612.5
557.7
529.1 (+5.3)
Source: World Gold Council, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
TABLE 6: Upcoming Events
26 Feb / 24 March
ca. 27 February
3 March / 1 April
5 March / 15 April
6 March / 3 April
17 March / 16 April
18 March / 29 April
USA
CHN
USA
EUR
USA
EUR
USA
Consumer Price Inflation, January / February
Gold imports via Hong Kong, January
Vehicle sales, February / March
ECB meeting and press conference
Nonfarm payrolls, February / March
EU new car registrations, February / March
FOMC meeting followed by press conference in March
Source: Fed, ECB, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
11 February 2015
3
Commodity Research | Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals
CHART 4: Net long positions of money managers (Gold)
250
2000
'000 contracts
1800
200
1600
150
1400
100
1200
1000
50
800
0
2008
600
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spec. net long (lS)
2013
2014
2015
CHART 5: Gold: ETF holdings
90
1900
in mm oz
80
1700
70
1500
60
1300
50
1100
40
900
30
700
20
500
10
0
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gold (USD per troy ounce, rS)
ETF holdings, left
Gold price (US$/oz), right
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 6: Gold versus US dollar
CHART 7: US real interest rates versus gold
92
1900
3
2000
96
1700
2
1800
1500
100
1
1600
1300
104
1100
108
112
116
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US-Dollar Index (inverted), ls
2014
0
1400
900
-1
700
-2
500
-3
2010
2015
1200
1000
2011
Gold (US$/oz.), rs
2012
2013
2014
Real interest rates, lS
2015
Gold (US$/oz), rS
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 8: Chinese net gold imports via Hong Kong in tons
CHART 9: Global gold demand per quarter in tons
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Q1'08
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jewelry
Jan-14
Q1'09
Q1'10
Q1'11
Bars and Coins
ETFs
Q1'12
Technology
Source: Statistics Department of HK, Reuters, Commerzb. Corp. & Markets
Source: WGC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 10: Chinese silver imports
CHART 11: Gold/Silver ratio
3000
2500
90
ytd in tons
Q1'13
Q1'14
Official Sector
Ounces of silver per ounce of gold
80
2000
70
1500
60
1000
50
500
40
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012
2013
2014
Source: Chinese Customs Authority, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
4
30
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
11 February 2015
Commodity Research | Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals
CHART 12: Net long positions of money managers (Silver)
50
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
'000 contracts
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
spec. net long positions, lS
2013
2014
CHART 13: Silver: ETF holdings
700
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
in mm oz
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2008
2015
Silver (US$/oz.), rS
2009
2010
2011
2012
ETF holdings, lS
2013
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 14: Net long posit. of non-commercials (Platinum)
CHART 15: Platinum: ETF holdings
2200
'000 contracts
2000
40
3000
2015
Silver price (US$/oz), rS
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
50
2014
2400
in '000 oz
2500
2100
2000
1800
1500
1500
1000
1200
500
900
1800
1600
30
1400
20
1200
1000
10
800
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
spec. net long positions, ls
2013
2014
600
2015
0
2008
Platinum (US$/oz), rs
600
2009
2010
2011
ETF holdings, lS
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 16: Net long posit. of non-commercials (Palladium)
CHART 17: Palladium: ETF holdings
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
'000 contracts
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
spec. net long positions, ls
2013
2014
3500
3000
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
in '000 oz
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008
2015
Palladium (US$/oz), rs
2009
2010
ETF holdings, lS
2011
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
CHART 18: Price difference platinum vs gold (US$/oz)
CHART 19: Price ratio platinum/palladium
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2014
2015
Palladium price (US$/oz), rS
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
1400
2015
Platinum price (US$/oz), rS
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
32
2014
6
5
4
3
2
1
-200
-400
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
11 February 2015
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
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Tel: + 1 212 703 4000
Singapore Branch
Commerzbank AG
71, Robinson Road, #12-01
Singapore 068895
Tel: +65 631 10000
Hong Kong Branch
Commerzbank AG
29/F, Two IFC 8
Finance Street Central
Hong Kong
Tel: +852 3988 0988