MARKET KICK-OFF - SRT Investments

MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
Weekly Economic, Political & Market Strategy
January 16th – 20th, 2015
Another EU-Greek Drama & US Dollar Consolidation?
“Drama is life with the dull bits cut out.”
– Alfred Hitchcock
WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK :
Authors :
 US retail sales and job data showed weak growth. US Dollar got rangy moves.
Aria Ganna
“Political Analyst”
[email protected]
@aria1983
 EU and Greek hadn’t found a solid agreement of debt reconciliation.
 Weak UK inflation was considered peripherals as other consumer data showed solid ground. GBP moved up.
 IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) kept posting new highs 5.380 despite IDR was being hampered to 12,750 a
dollar.
OUR CALL FOR THIS WEEK :

Expect a pause on US dollar strong moves as weak data will face solid ground from Euroland especially
Germany and UK;

BI Rate expect to stay at 7.75%. Potential downward remains, as low inflation and fuel price cut.

Low inflation and fuel price cut will keep pushing Indonesia stock market (Jakarta Composite Index) up. We
stick on our sectors choice.
1
Samuel Ringoringo
“Macroeconomic View”
[email protected]
@samring_tw
Seto Riawan
“Trading Strategy”
[email protected]
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
 ECONOMICS EVENT
Country
Risk Event
Prelim GDP (q/q): expect to move up from -0.5% to be 0.9% in Q42014. The economy
is expected to grow post last quarter recession.
Date
(GMT+7)
UK
EU
2
Expectation
Strategy
USDJPY
Up
Buy on Weakness
NZDUSD
Down
Sell on Strength
GBPUSD
Down
Sell on Strength
EURUSD
Down
Sell on Strength
16-Feb
Japan
New Zealand
Impact
Monetary Policy Statement: expect to hear another continuation of accommodative
monetary stance as economic stimulus remains in place.
18-Feb
Retails Sales (q/q): expect to move down from 1.5% to be 1.3% in Q42014.
16-Feb
Consumer Price Index (y/y): expect to see a decrease from 0.5% to 0.3%. As global
economy slows down, expect to see lowest inflation in UK since 2000.
17-Feb
Average Earning Index: expect to see this inflation leading indicator index to stay
pat at 1.7% (m/m). It shows incremental up tough since Sept 2014.
18-Feb
Claimant Count Change: This UK Jobless Claim number is expected to rise from 29.7k to be -25.2k. Even so the bigger trend still show lower line indicating downtrend
out there.
18-Feb
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Official Bank Rate Votes: as current inflation
rate remains far below the target (0.5% vs 2%), we haven’t expect another stance but
accommodative one.
18-Feb
Retail Sales (m/m): expect to see a down from 0.4% to be -0.1%.
20-Feb
Eurogroup Meeting: expect to hear positive development from prolonged Greek debt
problem. To name a few, debt renegotiation and debt-collateral modification may
come arise as options.
16-Feb
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
Country
Risk Event
Switzerland
Date
(GMT+7)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m): expect to see a rise from 48.4 to be 56.2.
This may continue latest three months streak of growing economic sentiment.
17-Feb
French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI): expect to see slight
increase from 49.2 to be 49.7. The trend remains down and weak as current figure
haven’t surpassed 50.
20-Feb
German Flash Manufacturing PMI: expect to see a rise from 50.9 to be 51.8. As the
trend remains weak, but figure above 50 showing positive tone by this far.
20-Feb
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Speaks: expect to hear another dovish
statement following currency peg dismissal and rate cut to negative area (0.75%).
18-Feb
Wholesale Sales (m/m): January sales is expected to see a rise to 0.4% from negative
territory at -0.3% a month before.
18-Feb
Canada
US
3
Core Retail Sales, excluding automobiles (m/m): expect to see non-auto retail sales
to down from 0.7% to be -0.7%.
20-Feb
Building Permit (m/m): expect to see slight increase from 1.06 mm to be 1.08 mm
in January. This shows continuation of US economic recovery.
18-Feb
Producer Price Index (PPI) (m/m): expect to see slight down from -0.3% to be 0.4%. to continue recent weaker trend since Sept 2014.
18-Feb
FOMC Meeting Minutes: In a nutshell, economic fundamentals will be seen as
positively moving up while accommodative monetary policy remains needed as
guarantor. Wait and see mode is on now.
19-Feb
Impact
Expectation
Strategy
USDCHF
Up
Sell on Strength
USDCAD
Up
Buy on Weakness
USD Index
Up
Buy on weakness
S&P
Up
Buy on weakness
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
Country
Risk Event
Indonesia
Date
(GMT+7)
Unemployment Claims (wow): expect to slight increase from 304k to be 305k. The
up number will be in the mid of bigger downtrend.
19-Feb
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expect to see slight increase from 6.3 to be 8.8
after recent two months drops.
19-Feb
BI Rate: expect to stay at 7.75%.
Impact
Expectation
USDIDR
Neutral
IHSG
Up
17-Feb
Strategy
Focus on: infrastructure,
mid low retail consumer
property, and
manufacture
 Politics & Policy View
1. Nasional meeting of one of current Indonesia President coalition parties, Partai Hanura, has been finished where defending leader
Wiranto continues his reign on the party he founded. The moment itself is more to be intense discussion between President and
coalition leaders in regard with deteriorating issue of corruption-suspected National Police Chief. Our bet: Coalition parties will finally
back up any of decision made by the Mr President, Jokowi.
2. In February 18, 2015, House of Parliament will enter holiday weeks where two things have been set: National Budget Plan and Regional
Election Kick off. No major issue on both yet we concern about regional election as it usually creates hot socio-politic temperature on
both province and municipal level. Our bet: expect a bit socio dynamics hot temper on first semester of the year.
4
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.

Market Overview and Charts
US Dollar Index (Daily)
EURUSD (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
89.60
- Buy on weakness
5
Support 1
94.00
Resistance 1
95.80
Resistance 2
-
Support 2
1.0800
- Sell on strength
Support 1
1.1100
Resistance 1
1.1520
Resistance 2
1.1650
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
USDJPY (Daily)
GBPUSD (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
114.25
- Buy on weakness
6
Support 1
116.00
Resistance 1
119.00
Resistance 2
121.50
Support 2
1.5000
- Sell on strength
Support 1
1.5225
Resistance 1
1.5415
Resistance 2
1.5550
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
AUDUSD (Daily)
NZDUSD (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
0.7450
- Sell on strength
7
Support 1
0.7650
Resistance 1
0.7860
Resistance 2
0.8030
Support 2
0.7190
- Sell on strength
Support 1
0.7340
Resistance 1
0.7450
Resistance 2
0.7630
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
USDCHF (Daily)
USDCAD (Daily)
Trading Range :
Trading Range :
Support 2
0.9000
- Sell on strength
8
Support 1
0.91750
Resistance 1
0.9390
Resistance 2
0.9540
Support 2
1.2225
- Buy on weakness
Support 1
1.2390
Resistance 1
1.2780
Resistance 2
1.3000
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
USDCNH (Daily)
GOLD (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
6.2075
- Buy on weakness
9
Support 1
6.2330
Resistance 1
6.2650
Resistance 2
6.2900
Support 2
1186.00
- Buy on weakness
Support 1
1217.00
Resistance 1
1250.00
Resistance 2
1278.50
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
WTI Crude Oil (Daily)
S&P 500 (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
44.25
- Sell on strength
10
Support 1
49.75
Resistance 1
54.00
Resistance 2
58.75
Support 2
2054.00
- Buy on weakness
Support 1
2078.00
Resistance 1
-
Resistance 2
-
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
USDIDR (Daily)
JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) / IHSG (Daily)
Trading Range
Trading Range
Support 2
12250
Support 1
12400
Resistance 1
12750
Resistance 2
-
Support 2
5100
Support 1
5250
Resistance 1
-
Resistance 2
-
- Focus on infrastructure, mid low retail consumer, property and manufacture
11
MARKET KICK-OFF
God does not play dice, people do.
We, keep all risks managed.
DISCLAIMER
The information in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT SRT Investama Indonesia (“SRT Investments”) and/or its affiliated companies and/or their
respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the
information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. This report
is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and
seek your own professional financial and legal advice. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of SRT Investments, its affiliated companies and their respective employees
and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceeding, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by
any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither SRT Investments, its affiliated companies nor their respective employees or agents
accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might
arise is hereby expressly disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not to be taken as any recommendation made by SRT Investments or any other person to enter any agreement with
regard to any investment mentioned in this document.
Source of information:
myfxbook.com, tradingeconomics.com, investing.com, forexfactory.com, fxpro.co.uk, alpari.co.uk, Chartnexus, Metatrader, Indonesia Ministry of Finance, Indonesia Bureau of Statistics
Notes:
WoW = Week on Week, MoM = Month on Month, QoQ = Quarterly on Quarterly, YoY = Year on Year, YtD = Year to Date
Published by:
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