Investor`s Eye
Transcription
Investor`s Eye
Visit us at www.sharekhan.com February 11, 2015 Index Stock Update >> Capital First Stock Update >> Triveni Turbine Stock Update >> Technocraft Industries (India) Stock Update >> Speciality Restaurants For Private Circulation only REGISTRATION DETAILS Regd Add: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. BSE - INB/INF011073351 ; BSE- CD ; NSE - INB/ INF231073330 ; CD-INE231073330 ; MCX Stock Exchange - INB/INF261073333 ; CD-INE261073330 ; DP - NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003 ; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-2712004 ; PMS-INP000000662 ; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425) ; NCDEX-00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/20626 ; For any complaints email at [email protected] ; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do’s & Don’ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing. investor’s eye stock update Capital First Reco: Buy Stock Update Strong operating performance, PT revised to Rs 485 Key points Company details Price target: Rs485 Market cap: Rs3,460 cr 52 week high/low: Rs431/131 NSE volume: (no. of shares) CMP: Rs416 2.7 lakh BSE code: 532938 NSE code: CAPF Sharekhan code: CAPF Free float: (no. of shares) 2.4 cr Shareholding pattern Capital First reported a strong set of numbers for Q3FY2015 as the net profit grew by 196% YoY led by a 56% Y-o-Y expansion in the net interest income. The non-interest income also showed a strong growth of 76% YoY, mainly contributed by the fee income. The AUM were up by 29% YoY to Rs11,695 crore. Despite the strong growth, the gross NPAs saw a marginal uptick (up 7BPS QoQ to 0.63% of advances) and remained at a healthy level. The company exited the gold loan business due to a weak growth outlook. The provisions increased by 67% YoY due to an increase in loans and higher standard asset provisioning of Rs4.4 crore (as per the RBI’s revised norms for NBFCs). Capital First is likely to sustain a strong growth in retail and SME segments and is likely to benefit from a drop in interest rates and revival in consumption. Given the strong management bandwidth and stringent risk management procedures, the asset quality may remain healthy. We expect the earnings to grow at a CAGR of 57% over FY2014-17 and the return ratios to improve significantly from FY2016 onwards. We value the company at 2.5x FY2017E book value which results in a price target of Rs485. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Results Rs cr Particulars Price chart Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY % Q2FY15 QoQ % Interest income 342.2 255.1 34.1 318.0 7.6 Interest expense 204.6 166.8 22.7 192.8 6.1 Net interest income 137.6 88.3 55.8 125.2 9.9 Non-interest income Net total income 37.9 21.5 76.3 29.6 28.0 175.5 109.8 59.8 154.8 13.4 Operating expenses 99.6 74.6 33.5 91.3 9.1 Pre-provisioning profit 75.9 35.2 115.6 63.5 19.5 Provisions 30.6 18.3 67.2 21.8 40.4 Profit before tax 45.3 16.9 168.0 41.7 8.6 Tax 15.4 6.8 126.5 14.7 5.0 Profit after tax 29.9 10.1 196.0 27.0 10.6 Key items AUM Price performance (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m 11,695 9,071 28.9 11,047 5.9 Wholesale 1,871 1,846 1.4 1,768 5.9 Retail 9,824 7,225 36.0 9,279 5.9 8,857 6,675 32.7 8,310 6.6 Gross NPLs 0.63 0.49 14 BPS 0.56 7 BPS Net NPLs 0.01 0.19 -18 BPS 0.01 0 BPS CAR 20.2 21.4 -120 BPS 21.0 -80 BPS C/I ratio 56.8 67.9 -1119 BPS 59.0 -223 BPS Loan Book Key ratios (%) Absolute 6.0 9.3 52.5 199.8 Relative 2.6 to Sensex 7.4 35.8 111.9 Sharekhan 2 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Strong growth in net interest income Asset quality stays healthy Capital First continued to report a strong growth in the net interest income, which increased by 56% year on year (YoY), in line with our estimate. The growth was contributed by a strong rise in loans and an expansion of 20 basis points (BPS) quarter on quarter (QoQ) in the margins. In line with a reduction in the wholesale borrowing cost, the cost of funds moderated. In addition, the focus on high-yielding products contributed to healthy margins. Despite the strong growth, the gross non-performing assets saw a marginal uptick (up 7BPS to 0.63% of the total advances) QoQ and remained at a healthy level. The company exited the gold loan business due to a weak growth outlook. The provisions increased by 67% YoY due to an increase in the loans and higher standard asset provisioning of Rs4.4 crore (as per the Reserve Bank of India [RBI]’s revised norms for the no-banking finance companies [NBFCs]). Asset quality Net interest income (Rs cr) Robust growth in fee income The non-interest income grew at a strong pace (up 76% YoY) mainly contributed by the fee income. The income from assignment transaction grew by 72% YoY to Rs5 crore. The operating expenses increased by 34% YoY due to a pick-up in the retail business and expenses on assignment transaction. AUM up 29%, SME and retail loans continue to grow at strong pace Led by a strong growth in the retail, and small and medium enterprise (SME) loans (which form 84% of the portfolio) the assets under management (AUM) grew by 29 % YoY to Rs11,695 crore. The loan book also grew at 33% YoY which contributed to the growth in the operating income. From a segmental perspective, the consumer durable & twowheeler segment grew by 110% while the SME mortgage segment delivered a growth of 34%. Given the company’s specialisation in the SME mortgage and increasing market share in the retail loan space, we have built in a loan growth of 26% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for FY2014-17. Fee income (Rs cr) Asset under management (Rs cr) Valuation and outlook Capital First is likely to sustain a strong growth in retail and SME segments and is likely to benefit from a drop in interest rates and revival in consumption. Given the strong management bandwidth and stringent risk management procedures, the asset quality may remain healthy. We expect the earnings to grow at a CAGR of 57% over FY2014-17 and the return ratios to improve significantly from FY2016 onwards. We value the company at 2.5x FY2017E book value which results in a price target of Rs485. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Sharekhan 3 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Financials Profit and loss statement Particulars Net interest income Rs cr FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E 245 328 461 597 768 80 88 105 124 146 Non interst income Net total income 325 Operating expenses 416 566 721 302 344 403 477 80 114 222 318 438 Provision 22 49 70 92 118 Profit before tax 58 65 153 226 320 Exceptional items 15 -6 - - - Tax 10 6 43 66 94 Reported Profit after tax 63 53 110 160 226 Adj. Profit after tax 58 110 160 226 Particulars Per share data (Rs) Reported earnings 915 245 Balance sheet Particulars FY17E Pre-provisioning profit 48 Key ratios FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 70 82 82 82 82 Reserves and surplus 890 1,089 1,171 1,294 1,467 Share capital Networth 961 1,172 1,253 1,376 1,549 6,230 8,422 10,275 12,398 15,387 344 538 603 675 756 7,535 10,132 12,131 14,449 17,692 33 28 30 33 37 1 347 313 297 300 Loans and advances 5,912 7,323 9,341 11,808 14,724 Current assets 1,574 2,411 2,430 2,294 2,614 Deffered tax assets 9 17 17 17 17 Other assets (incl goodwill) 6 6 0 0 0 7,535 10,132 12,131 14,449 17,692 Borrowings Current liabilities and provisons Total Liabilities Net block Investments Total Assets FY16E FY17E 6.4 13.4 19.6 27.5 6.9 136.4 7.1 142.8 13.4 152.8 19.6 167.8 27.5 193.9 Adj. book value Dividend 135.4 1.8 141.3 2.0 152.6 3.0 167.6 3.9 188.6 5.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.0 15.0 Cost of funds Net interest margins 9.1 4.7 8.8 5.0 8.7 5.5 8.7 5.6 8.7 5.8 Operating ratios (%) Interest expended/ Interest earned 66.3 66.3 63.8 62.3 61.3 75.4 72.7 60.7 55.9 52.1 24.7 21.1 18.5 17.2 16.0 Return ratios (%) RoAE 7.0 4.9 9.1 12.2 15.4 RoAA Assets/Equity (x) 1.0 7.8 0.6 8.6 1.0 9.7 1.2 10.5 1.4 11.4 Dividned yield Growth ratios (%) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 56.6 -54.0 -40.4 33.9 41.7 -16.6 40.6 95.7 109.0 29.4 43.1 45.9 28.7 37.7 40.7 Advances Borrowings 33.0 42.0 23.9 35.2 27.6 22.0 26.4 20.7 24.7 24.1 Valuation ratios (x) P/E Net interest income Pre-provisioning profit Profit after tax Assets FY15E 9.0 Cost to income Non-interest income/ net total income Liabilities FY14 Adj. earnings Book value Spreads (%) Yield on funds Rs cr FY13 46.4 64.8 31.0 21.3 15.1 P/BV P/ABV 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 Asset quality (%) Gross NPA 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 Net NPA 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. Sharekhan 4 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Triveni Turbine Reco: Buy Stock Update Growth outlook remains intact, maintain Buy Key points Company details Price target: Rs135 Market cap: Rs3,510 cr 52-week high/low: CMP: Rs106 Rs126/52 NSE volume: (No of shares) 86,367 BSE code: 533655 NSE code: TRITURBINE Sharekhan code: TRITURBINE Free float: (No of shares) 9.9 cr Shareholding pattern Deferment of some deliveries led to lower than expected revenues: In Q3FY2015 Triveni Turbine Ltd (TTL) reported a lower than expected growth of 7% YoY in its stand-alone revenues owing to a deferment of delivery of turbines worth Rs30 crore which would be booked in Q4FY2015. Consequently, the OPM was marginally lower at 21.1%. But the PAT increased to Rs23.6 crore (up 13.8% YoY), which was in line with our expectation. Strong order book; outlook robust: On a stand-alone basis, it has reported an order inflow of about Rs160 crore taking the order book to Rs610 crore with a strong growth in export orders. The order booking in the joint venture with GE was also healthy with a consolidated order book of Rs770 crore. More importantly, the company indicated an inquiry pipeline of over 7,500MW spread across multiple countries. Thus, the management is confident of achieving a much better financial performance in Q4FY2015 and in the next couple of years. Maintain Buy with a price target of Rs135: We continue to like the stock for its strong competitive positioning, international marketing efforts, robust order backlog, margin profile, shorter execution cycle and healthy balance sheet (it is a debt-free company with superior return ratios). The company continues to look attractive on the valuation front at 19x FY2017E consolidated earnings per share. That is a 25-30% discount to its nearest peers like Thermax. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs135 (at 24x FY2017E EPS). Price chart Results Rs cr Particulars Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY % Q2FY15 Income from operations 150.2 Other operating income 0.3 Operational income 140.8 6.7 155.6 -3.5 0.1 200.0 0.2 87.5 150.5 140.9 6.8 155.8 -3.4 Total expenditure 118.7 109.5 8.4 120.9 -1.8 Operating profits 31.8 31.3 1.5 34.8 -8.8 Other income Price performance (%) Absolute 1m 3m 6m 12m -4.7 16.2 20.4 92.4 Relative -7.7 to Sensex 14.1 7.3 36.0 QoQ % 6.7 2.2 209.3 4.6 46.5 EBIDTA 38.5 33.5 14.9 39.4 -2.4 Interest 0.1 0.1 -11.1 0.0 300.0 Adjusted PAT 23.6 20.7 13.8 23.9 -1.1 Reported PAT 23.6 20.7 13.8 23.9 -1.1 21.12 22.2 22.36 PAT margin 15.7 14.7 15.3 Tax rate 31.5 31.2 32.5 Ratio (%) Operating margin Sharekhan 5 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Valuations (consolidated) Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E Net sales (Rs cr) 665.3 515.4 706.3 - -22.5 37.0 Y-o-Y growth % Operating margin (%) FY16E 972.3 1,402.6 37.7 44.3 23.1 19.5 20.6 23.6 23.6 Net profit (Rs cr) 104.7 68.0 95.3 136.2 182.7 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 3.2 2.1 2.9 4.1 5.5 Y-o-Y growth % international market. The share of export turnover in the AM turnover was 28% during M9FY2015 and it has grown about 100% on a yearly basis. The mix of product and AM turnovers also improved from 21% in Q3FY2014 to 25% in the stand-alone Q3FY2015 revenues. In the past few years TTL has undertaken the refurbishment of larger turbines and successful completion of these orders should help the company to get more orders in this new segment. FY17E -35.1 40.3 42.8 34.2 PER (x) 33.1 51.0 36.3 25.4 19.0 P/B (x) 25.1 19.8 12.8 8.5 5.9 EV/EBIDTA (x) 20.3 30.3 20.9 13.7 9.5 RoCE (%) - 54.3 55.7 58.2 56.9 RoNW (%) - 43.4 42.9 40.3 36.7 Increasing contribution from AM business to support margin expansion Strong order booking during the quarter The stand-alone order inflow remained strong at Rs160 crore (up 14% YoY and 3% sequentially) with the high-margin after-market (AM) segment accounting for 24% of the orders and exports accounting for 40% of the orders. The standalone order book stood at Rs610 crore with about 10% contribution from the AM segment. The share of exports in the stand-alone order book went up to 33% led by a good demand from renewable and waste heat recovery projects. The consolidated order book stood flat on a sequential basis at Rs770 crore of which Rs230 crore of orders were from the joint venture with GE. On a consolidated basis, the contribution of exports to the total order book went up to about 60% from the past levels of 20-30% in Q2FY2015. The company indicated that the finalisation of orders in the domestic market is yet to pick up which resulted in sluggishness in the domestic order booking. Management maintains robust growth outlook for coming years Backed by a strong order inflow from the overseas market and the increasing approval of its prototypes by the international clients, the company is expecting a 30-35% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the revenues as well as earnings on a consolidated basis over the next few years. Any pick-up in the domestic capital expenditure activity would be an added boost. In order to expand its highmargin (as high as 35-40%) AM segment globally, the company is planning to open a few service centres especially in the UK (mainly to cater to the European markets) and Dubai. Increasing book/bill ratio Estimates fine-tuned, earnings forecast remains largely unchanged We have increased our stand-alone revenue estimates by 5-10% for the projected period to accommodate the good order inflow in the AM and export segments. However, we have slightly lowered our revenue estimates for the JV especially for FY2015 as the execution cycle is now stretching beyond one year (14-18 months) for large turbine orders. Overall, our earnings estimates remain largely the same. We are expecting a compounded annual growth of 39.6% in its revenues and that of 39% in its earnings over FY2014-17. Exports from AM segment pick up The turnover of the AM business increased by 33% YoY during M9FY2015 as the company achieved some breakthrough orders in the refurbishment space from the Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. Sharekhan 6 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Technocraft Industries (India) Reco: Buy Stock Update Strong Q3, valuation still appealing; retain Buy Key points Company details Price target: Rs270 Market cap: Rs728 cr 52-week high/low: CMP: Rs234 Rs235/75 NSE volume: (No of shares) 41,987 BSE code: 532804 NSE code: TIIL Sharekhan code: TIIL Free float: (No of shares) 0.8 cr Shareholding pattern In Q3FY2015, Technocraft Industries India Ltd (TIIL) reported a very strong earnings growth of around 58% YoY to Rs22 crore, which was ahead of our estimate. The strong earnings growth was driven by the scaffolding business (whose PBIT almost doubled backed by a 53% revenue growth and a 282-BPS margin expansion) and a turnaround in the yarn business. The high-margin drum closure business continued to show a steady double-digit growth in Q3. The management expects to sustain the growth momentum in the scaffolding business while the growth in the drum closure business could moderate to mid single digit-levels. The garment business is expected to see traction in the coming days due to the recent upgradation of its facilities. Moreover, it is evaluating a few inorganic growth opportunities in the drum closure and IT space which could give further impetus to growth. Given the improving outlook across business segments and the potential upside from the utilisation of free cash on book to achieve inorganic growth in related areas, we continue to retain our positive stance on the stock in spite of a close to 35% appreciation in its price since our initiation report in August 2014. In the terms of valuations, it is available at attractive multiples of 7x FY2016E and 6x FY2017E earnings. The strong balance sheet (net cash and investment positive) and healthy cash flow generation are also comforting factors. Therefore, we retain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs270. Results Rs cr Particulars Price chart Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY % Q2FY15 Revenue 217.2 186.2 17 184.6 18 Net raw material 126.2 108.3 17 102.2 23 Employee exp. 11.4 9.8 17 11.0 4 Other exp. 40.9 53.6 -24 43.2 -5 Operating profit 38.7 14.5 167 28.2 37 2.1 3.5 -40 3.5 -41 Other income Price performance (%) Interest 1.1 1.0 13 1.4 -20 Depreciation 5.6 6.0 -6 5.1 10 PBT 34.0 11.0 210 25.2 35 Tax 13.2 3.6 267 8.0 65 Reported PAT 20.8 7.4 182 17.2 21 (1) (7) -79 (1) -4 Adj. PAT 22.2 14.1 58 18.6 19 Adj. EPS 7.0 4.5 58 5.9 19 OPM 17.8 7.8 1004.3 15.3 251.7 NPM 10.2 7.5 266.3 10.1 11.6 Tax rate 38.8 32.8 607.9 31.8 706.3 EO 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 29.2 17.0 33.9 160.7 Relative 25.1 to Sensex 14.9 19.2 84.2 QoQ % Margins (%) YoY BPS Sharekhan 7 February 11, 2015 QoQ BPS Home Next investor’s eye stock update Valuations Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net sales (Rs cr) 809 Y-o-Y growth (%) 24.1 Operating profit (Rs cr) 122 OPM (%) 15.1 Adj. net profit (Rs cr) 71 Adj. EPS (Rs) 22.7 Growth (YoY) % 409.6 PER (x) 10.2 P/B (x) 1.5 EV/EBIDTA (x) 4.6 RoCE (%) 19.8 RoE (%) 15.2 Div yield (%) 1.3 1,045 29.2 135 12.9 104 33.1 45.9 7.0 1.3 4.3 20.0 19.5 2.2 1,039 (0.6) 140 13.5 89 28.3 (14.4) 8.2 1.1 4.1 17.6 14.8 2.2 1,183 13.9 172 14.6 111 35.1 24.2 6.6 1.0 3.3 19.5 16.2 2.7 1,337 13.0 194 14.5 126 40.1 14.1 5.8 0.9 2.7 19.9 16.3 3.1 The overall profit growth was again driven by a strong earnings improvement in the scaffolding business and a turn-around in the yarn business. However, the highmargin drum closure business continued to support its earnings with a steady performance. The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) of the scaffolding business grew by 90% YoY, backed by a revenue growth of 53% YoY and a margin expansion of 282 basis points (BPS) YoY. The yarn business reported a PBIT of Rs3 crore in Q3FY2015 against a loss of Rs3 crore in Q3FY2014. The performance of the garment and power businesses remained largely the same; however, the management expects an improvement in the garment business in future due to the upgradation of its facilities in the recent past. Overall, the stand-alone operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 1,000BPS YoY in Q3FY2015 to 17.8% which helped the operating profit to jump by 167% YoY to Rs38.7 crore. Below the operating line, due to a lower other income and depreciation cost, the reported profit after tax (PAT) almost doubled to Rs21 crore. However, there were large one-off items in Q3FY2014 related to foreign exchange (forex) and NSEL investment write-off. If we adjust that, the earnings show a growth of 58% YoY to Rs22 crore. Q3FY2015 performance For Q3FY2015 TIIL reported a very strong earnings growth of 58% year on year (YoY) to Rs22 crore (adjusting for the extraordinary items related to foreign exchange conversion and NSEL investment write-off). The revenues for the quarter grew by 17% YoY to Rs217 crore mainly driven by a strong growth in the scaffolding business. Riding on high traction, the scaffolding revenues grew by more than 50% YoY; nevertheless, the drum closure, yarn and textile businesses extended support to the overall revenue growth with a healthy double-digit growth. Conference call highlights The management expects to sustain the high growth momentum in the scaffolding business while the growth in the drum closure business could moderate to mid singledigit levels. The garment business is expected to see traction in the days ahead due to the upgradation of its facilities recently. Moreover, it is evaluating a few inorganic growth opportunities in the drum closure and information technology (IT) space which could give further impetus to growth. Segmental performance Particulars Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14 YoY % Q2 FY15 QoQ % Revenue 63 56 13 70 -10 EBIT 17 16 10 21 -17 27.1 27.7 (62) 29.3 (218) 100 65 53 74 35 15 8 90 9 67 14.7 11.8 282 11.8 282 53 47 13 39 38 (3) -194 Drum closure EBITM (%) Scaffolding Revenue EBIT EBITM (%) Attractive valuation; strong balance sheet and cash flow give comfort—retain Buy Yarn Revenue EBIT EBITM (%) 3 (3) -195 5.2 -6.3 1,152 Given the improving outlook across business segments and the potential upside from the utilisation of free cash on book to achieve inorganic growth in related areas, we continue to retain our positive stance on the stock in spite of a close to 35% appreciation in its price since our initiation report in August 2014. In the terms of valuations, it is available at attractive multiples of 7x FY2016E and 6x FY2017E earnings. The strong balance sheet (net cash and investment positive) and healthy cash flow generation are also comforting factors. Therefore, we retain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs270. -7.7 1,297 Garment Revenue EBIT EBITM (%) 8 6 31 7 8 (1) (1) -30 (1) -34 -6.8 -12.7 588 -11.0 422 10 11 -9 3 199 1 1 80 (3) -133 9.3 4.7 461 Power Revenue EBIT EBITM (%) -84.3 9,365 Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. Sharekhan 8 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Speciality Restaurants Reco: Hold Stock Update New restaurants affected OPM; maintain Hold with revised PT of Rs205 Key points Company details Price target: Rs205 Market cap: Rs859 cr 52 week high/low: CMP: Rs183 Rs214/111 NSE volume: (no. of shares) 72,990 BSE code: 534425 NSE code: SPECIALITY Sharekhan code: SPECIALITY Free float: (no. of shares) 2.1 cr Shareholding pattern Speciality Restaurants Ltd (SRL)’s revenues grew by 11% to Rs80.4 crore in Q3FY2015. The growth was largely driven by new restaurant addition while same-restaurant sales remained flat. SRL’s OPM was affected by an incremental cost on account of new restaurants and an increase in the break-even period for some of the restaurants launched in the previous quarters. The management has indicated that weekend sales have been encouraging in the past few months. A lower corporate turnaround has affected the sales in week days but the management expects the trend to improve in the coming quarters. The impact of lower food prices would start flowing in from FY2016, as the company would be tendering for new contracts for the supply of raw materials. Accordingly, we have fine-tuned our estimates to factor in a lower growth in the revenues and better margins. SRL would start witnessing an improvement in the operating performance from FY2016 on the back of an expected pick-up in urban discretionary spending (including at the corporate level). Thus, we maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs205. Results (stand-alone) Price chart Rs cr Particulars Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY % Q2FY15 QoQ % 79.1 67.2 17.8 70.9 11.6 1.3 5.0 -73.5 4.1 - Total revenues 80.4 72.2 11.4 75.0 7.2 Total expenditure 72.0 61.3 17.4 68.1 5.7 Operating profit 8.5 10.9 -22.3 6.9 22.3 Other income 2.0 2.8 -28.7 2.1 -7.1 Depreciation 6.5 4.7 37.3 6.1 6.6 Interest cost 0.0 0.0 -66.7 0.0 -66.7 PBT 4.0 8.9 -55.6 2.9 34.7 Tax 0.7 2.2 -66.8 0.6 21.3 Reported PAT 3.2 6.7 -51.9 2.3 38.2 EPS (Rs) 0.7 1.4 -51.9 0.5 38.2 GPM (%) 68.7 70.9 -222 BPS 68.6 13 BPS OPM (%) 10.6 15.1 -457 BPS 9.3 130 BPS Net sales Other operating income Price performance (%) 1m 3m -0.3 8.5 30.1 70.2 Relative -3.5 to Sensex 6.6 15.8 20.3 Absolute 6m 12m Sharekhan 9 February 11, 2015 Home Next investor’s eye stock update Conference call highlights restaurants during the quarter. The management has maintained its guidance of adding 14-15 new restaurants per annum with investment of Rs45-50 crore in FY2016. The cover turnaround and cover charges for some of SRL’s key restaurant brands remained flat during the quarter. For Mainland China the cover-turnaround stood at 1.38x while the average cover charge stood at Rs675680 per person. The cover-turnaround for Oh! Calcutta stood at 1.28x (improved from 1.10x in Q2FY2015) while for Sigree Global Grill the same was 1.70x (improved from 1.47x in Q2FY2015) during the quarter. The average cover charge for Sigree Global Grill and Oh! Calcutta stood at Rs650-680 and Rs860 respectively. The response to the Mainland China-Asia Kitchen format has been encouraging. The restaurant which was first opened at Oberoi Mall in Mumbai in late 2014 has already broken even. The small portions and regular portions are gaining a good response. Also, the transformation of three Sigree restaurants and one Machaan restaurant into Sigree Global Grill restaurants has worked wonderfully well for the company. The table turnaround and the cover charges have improved in the transformed restaurants. The management has indicated that it will look to further transform some of the Sigree restaurants into Sigree Global Grill restaurants in the coming years. The newly launched Hoppipola and Mezzuna brands continued to perform well for the company. The management has indicated that the cover turnaround in weekends is almost double the cover turnaround in week days (due to the impact of lower corporate footfalls). The footfalls from corporates remained low (especially in south India). The company expects the same to improve in the coming years which will help the average cover turnaround ratios of the key brands to improve. • In Q3FY2015, SRL acquired a 51% stake in Love Sugar & Dough Bakery Company for Rs75 lakh. The brand has three outlets in Mumbai. SRL is planning to improve the fundamentals of the outlet in line with that of Sweet Bengal (a confectionary store brand). The company added five restaurants—Mainland China (1), Mainland China-Asia Kitchen (1), Hoppipola (2) and Sigree Global Grill (1)—and closed down two Valuations Particulars FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E 226.9 263.9 301.4 370.2 455.7 Operating profit (Rs cr) 36.8 34.0 30.1 48.6 74.9 Adjusted PAT (Rs cr) 23.4 18.9 10.8 23.5 42.3 5.0 4.0 2.3 5.0 9.0 OPM (%) 16.2 12.9 10.0 13.1 16.4 PE (X) 36.7 45.5 79.6 36.6 20.3 RoE (%) 11.5 6.4 3.5 7.4 12.4 RoCE (%) 14.6 8.5 4.8 10.0 16.7 Net sales (Rs cr) Diluted EPS (Rs) Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. 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