Sailing through troubled waters

Offshore & Marine│Singapore
February 26, 2015
4QFY14 RESULTS NOTE
Pacific Radiance
PACRA SP / PACI.SI
Market Cap
Avg Daily Turnover
Free Float
US$388.1m
US$1.52m
24.4%
S$526.2m
S$2.01m
725.8 m shares
Current
S$0.73
Target
S$1.04
Prev. Target
Up/Downside
S$1.25
42.8%
Conviction|
|
Sailing through troubled waters
CIMB Analyst(s)
—————————————————————————————————————————
YEO Zhi Bin
T (65) 6210 8669
E [email protected]
Share price info
PACRA’s 4Q14 core net profit of US$5.8m (-59% yoy) was below our and
consensus expectations, resulting in full-year core earnings falling short our
forecast by 15% despite rising 36%. The negative deviation stemmed from
lower-than-expected margins. The bright spot was the higher-than-expected
DPS of 3Scts (+50% yoy; we expected 2Scts). We cut our FY15-16 EPS by
19-33% as we scale back our revenue and margin expectations. This lowers
our 7.5x CY16 P/E-target price (1 s.d below small/mid-cap 5-year mean).
Nonetheless, we project a doubling of PACRA’s 2014 chartering EBITDA by
2017. Growth and attractive valuations (the stock is trading at 9% discount to
its liquidation value) underpin our Add rating, with catalysts coming from
yoy improvement in chartering EBITDA.
4Q14 earnings weighed by lower margins
Share price perf. (%)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.2
-27.4
-36.2
Absolute
-3.3
-24.5
Major shareholders
-25.3
% held
Pang Yoke Min
Mok Weng Vai
Yong Yin Min
65.4
6.4
3.8
Show Style "View Doc Map"
4Q margins were impacted by low subsea utilisation and start-up costs for
newbuild deliveries. Even through turnover for the OSV segment rose 12% yoy,
start-up costs crimped profitability. PACRA took delivery of two vessels (one
PSV and ROV-support vessel) in 4Q, bringing its wholly-owned fleet count to
58 by end-14. Subsea revenue fell 59% yoy as only one of its two DSVs worked
for a month, resulting in losses from high operating leverage. OSV utilisation
for FY14 was a shade below 80% (similar to FY13) while subsea utilisation was
~50% (FY13: ~80%). See overleaf for FY14 commentary.
Expect a back-loaded FY15
With similar subsea utilisation as 4Q14 and the seasonal monsoon weather
affecting OSV utilisation, we expect 1Q15 performance to be similar to 4Q14.We
are instead expecting a back-loaded FY15, with demand expected to climb in
the summer months and newbuild deliveries making contributions. PACRA is
expected to add 12 vessels in FY15. YTD, it has taken in three.
Sailing through troubled waters
Declining drilling activity, falling utilisation and day rates, oversupply of OSVs
in some categories (PSVs, notably) and stiffening competition will inevitably
affect charterers’ operations. We apply a 10% blanket cut to our FY15-17 day
rate expectations and cut subsea utilisation to 65% (prev. 80%). We also lower
the group’s FY15 EBITDA margins (ex-disposal gain) to 36% (prev. 38.2%;
FY14: 36%). Despite the headwinds, we believe that PACRA’s shrewd
management team and its cost-competitive and diversified fleet should enable
the company to sail deftly through troubled waters. We expect PACRA to
double its 2014 chartering EBITDA (ex-disposal gains) by 2017.
Results comparison
FYE Dec (US$m)
Revenue
Operating costs
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Depn & amort.
EBIT
Interest expense
Interest & invt inc
Associates' contrib
Exceptionals
Pretax profit
Tax
Tax rate (%)
Minority interests
Net profit
EPS (US cts)
Core net profit
FD Core EPS (US cts)
4Q
4Q
FY14
37.2
(28.8)
8.4
22.6
(7.3)
1.1
(2.6)
1.1
3.3
(0.7)
2.2
3.9
nm
(1.1)
5.1
0.7
5.8
0.8
FY13
42.4
(26.1)
16.3
38.5
(6.5)
9.8
(3.5)
0.4
4.5
2.2
13.5
3.2
nm
(0.3)
16.4
2.8
14.1
2.5
yoy % qoq % 4QFY14 4QFY13
chg
(12.2)
10.5
(48.4)
chg
(16.1)
21.5
(59.3)
11.7
(88.5)
(24.1)
204.0
(26.7)
(132.9)
(83.5)
23.4
11.4
(92.0)
16.3
183.7
33.5
86.8
(84.5)
nm
271.4
(69.1)
(75.6)
(59.1)
(67.6)
(10.1)
(61.4)
(61.4)
(57.0)
(57.0)
Cum
172.2
(79.8)
92.5
53.7
(27.9)
64.6
(9.1)
2.0
12.5
(1.7)
68.3
1.1
nm
(1.1)
68.3
9.4
70.0
9.6
yoy %
Prev.
Cum
chg
168.6
2.2
(94.6) (15.7)
74.0
24.9
43.9
(25.0)
11.2
49.0
31.9
(13.1) (30.2)
2.0
13.6
(7.8)
5.3 (131.6)
56.8
20.4
0.1
nm
nm
(0.1)
nm
56.8
20.4
9.9
(4.7)
51.5
35.9
9.0
7.7
FY14F
176.1
(77.8)
98.3
55.8
(27.0)
71.3
(9.0)
1.1
14.5
(1.8)
76.1
4.0
nm
80.1
11.0
81.9
11.3
Comments
Slightly below
Slightly above
Below, due to lower-than-expected margins from subsea & OSV
Below
Broadly in line
Below, in line with lower EBITDA
In line
Above
Below, due to slower-than-expected contributions from newly delivered vessels
EI due mainly to net FX loss & loss on derivatives
Below, in line with lower EBIT
Over-provision of tax in the previous years
Below, in line with lower PBT
Below
Below. FY14 formed 85% of our full-yr forecast. 4Q at 7%
Below
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Relative to FSSTI (RHS)
1.60
154
1.40
134
1.20
114
1.00
94
0.80
74
0.60
10
8
6
4
2
54
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Source: Bloomberg
52-week share price range
0.73
1.51
0.70
1.04
Current
Target
Dec-13A
168.6
58.6
56.76
0.08
44.9%
6.63
0.026
4.84%
9.70
NA
60.4%
1.03
17.7%
Revenue (US$m)
Operating EBITDA (US$m)
Net Profit (US$m)
Core EPS (US$)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (US$)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-14A
172.2
61.9
72.44
0.10
26.6%
5.24
0.016
2.99%
9.89
7.45
52.5%
0.91
18.4%
Dec-15F
183.5
66.1
55.50
0.08
(25.1%)
6.99
0.024
4.49%
11.80
NA
84.4%
0.83
12.4%
(32.5%)
0.69
Dec-16F
253.7
96.6
77.09
0.11
38.9%
5.03
0.024
4.49%
8.99
14.54
92.0%
0.74
15.5%
(18.8%)
0.84
Dec-17F
295.7
112.1
86.69
0.12
12.5%
4.48
0.024
4.49%
8.36
14.83
93.2%
0.65
15.5%
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
FY14 highlights: boosted by disposal gains
FY14 core net earnings of US$70m (+36% yoy) were boosted by disposal gains
of US$34.6m. PACRA sold eight vessels in FY14 and unlocked US$170.3m of
capital. Turnover inched up 2% yoy to US$172.2m as a rejuvenated OSV fleet
was offset by poor subsea utilisation. Ex-disposal gains, the group’s EBITDA
increased 6% yoy to US$62m. Despite poor subsea profitability, EBITDA
margins climbed 1.2% pts to 36% as the higher-value newbuilds commanded
higher margins. Supported by strong operating cash flow generation of
US$61.3m and disposal of its vessels, net gearing was pared down to 0.5x (FY13:
0.6x).
Figure 1: Quarterly segment
Sales breakdown (US$m) 1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
OSV
Subsea
Complementary
Total
29.5
12.3
4.3
46.1
30.7
13.2
4.7
48.6
26.5
12.1
3.8
42.4
32.8
8.6
0.6
42.0
33.8
14.0
0.9
48.7
31.8
5.8
6.8
44.4
29.7
5.0
2.5
37.2
22.6
7.6
1.4
31.6
% yoy
chg
12%
-59%
-34%
-12%
% qoq
chg
-7%
-14%
-63%
-16%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
2
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Figure 2: Earnings drivers
Sales breakdown (US$m)
OSV
Subsea
Complementary
Total
EBITDA breakdown (US$m)
OSV - chartering income
OSV - disposal gains
Subsea
Complementary
Total
2010A
56.9
0.0
2.9
59.8
2011A
79.1
11.4
4.6
95.1
2012A
109.9
17.4
3.5
130.8
2013A
109.3
45.2
14.0
168.6
2014A
128.1
33.4
10.7
172.2
2015F
138.5
35.0
10.0
183.5
2016F
198.4
45.4
10.0
253.7
2017F
240.4
45.4
10.0
295.7
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
15.1
25.1
44.5
36.2
45.5
49.9
73.4
88.9
26.8
16.6
17.1
15.7
34.6
15.0
15.0
15.0
-1.5
3.7
-1.2
23.2
11.4
15.7
22.7
22.7
-0.5
0.7
0.2
0.5
-0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
39.9
46.1
60.6
75.6
90.8
81.1
111.6
127.1
Sales growth (%)
OSV
Subsea
Complementary
Group
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
39%
39%
-1%
17%
8%
43%
21%
0%
53%
159%
-26%
5%
30%
0%
60%
-23%
299%
-24%
-7%
0%
0%
59%
38%
29%
2%
7%
38%
17%
EBITDA margins (%)
OSV - chartering income
Subsea
Complementary
Group - excluding disposal gains
2010A
26.5%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
31.8% 40.5% 33.1% 35.5% 36.0% 37.0% 37.0%
32.5%
-6.9% 51.4% 34.1% 45.0% 50.0% 50.0%
14.3%
6.5%
3.6%
-6.5%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
22.1% 34.1% 32.1% 34.8% 32.6% 36.0% 38.1% 37.9%
EBITDA growth (%)
OSV - chartering income
Subsea
Complementary
Group - excluding disposal gains
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
67%
77%
-19%
26%
10%
47%
21%
340% -132% 2027%
-51%
38%
44%
0%
244%
-65%
118% -240%
0%
0%
0%
145%
29%
39%
-4%
18%
46%
16%
Sales mix
OSV
Subsea
Complementary
2010A
95%
0%
5%
2011A
83%
12%
5%
2012A
84%
13%
3%
2013A
65%
27%
8%
2014A
74%
19%
6%
2015F
75%
19%
5%
2016F
78%
18%
4%
2017F
81%
15%
3%
EBITDA mix
OSV - chartering income
OSV - disposal gains
Subsea
Complementary
2010A
38%
67%
-4%
-1%
2011A
55%
36%
8%
1%
2012A
73%
28%
-2%
0%
2013A
48%
21%
31%
1%
2014A
50%
38%
13%
-1%
2015F
61%
18%
19%
1%
2016F
66%
13%
20%
0%
2017F
70%
12%
18%
0%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Troubled waters ahead for ASEAN OSV
Compared to end-2014, we have become more negative on the OSV sub-sector.
While we have stood beside the argument that OSVs are workhorses of the
entire E&P chain and that ASEAN OSVs, which primarily support shallow-water
production, are relatively insulated, we are coming to terms with the possibility
that shallow-water production could be hit more than expected. The potent mix
of softening demand, oversupply cropping up again as well as stiffening
competition lies on the side of the bear argument.
In terms of outlook, market watchers expect the full brunt of oil price and the
subsequent impact on day rates, to be felt in mid-15. Already, day rates of the
5,000 bhp anchor handlers – the workhorse of Southeast Asian waters – have
dropped to US$6,000-7000 from US$9,000-10,000 in mid-2014. The 3,000+
dwt PSVs are now commanding US$17,000-18,000 per day vs.
US$22,000-24,000. Even cabotage-protected markets such as Malaysia and
Indonesia have not been spared. Both Petronas and Pertamina have announced
capex reductions.
We believe that the challenging environment will separate the wheat from the
chaff and enable investors to discern the stronger players. To this end, we
believe that PACRA’s shrewd management team and its cost-competitive and
diversified fleet will enable the company to sail deftly through troubled waters.
Propelled by fleet expansion, PACRA is set to double its 2014 chartering
EBITDA (ex-disposal gains) by 2017, by our estimates.
3
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Valuation
Figure 3: The stock is trading 9% discount to its estimated liquidation value
Vessel Type
DSV
AHTS
AHTS
AHTS
PSV
PSV
PSV
Multi-purpose support vessels
AHT
Maintenance Work Vessels
Maintenance Work Vessels
Pipe carrier
Accommodation work barge
Accommodation work barge
Tugs & barges
Specifications
12 men saturation dive system, 100 ton AHC subsea crane
5,150 bhp
8,200 bhp
12,000 bhp
3,000 - 3,500dwt
4,000 dwt/ Diesel electric drive
4,900 dwt/diesel electric drive
3,200 bhp
4,400-5,150 bhp
120 men, 40 ton crane
208 men, 64 ton crane
6,866 DWT
120 men
200 men
Units Owernship
Est. market value (US$m)
2
100%
100.0
2
100%
18.0
1
100%
24.0
1
100%
35.0
2
100%
36.0
2
100%
54.0
1
100%
36.0
4
100%
36.0
6
100%
27.0
2
100%
60.0
2
100%
70.0
1
100%
5.0
1
100%
10.0
2
100%
40.0
29
100%
58.0
Est. market value of existing fleet
609
Add associates
66
Less net debt
226
RNAV (US$m)
449
US$ : S$
1.3
RNAV (S$m)
584
no. of shares (m)
726
RNAV (S$/share)
0.80
% disc. To RNAV
-9%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 4: 12-month rolling forward core P/E – small/mid-cap oil
services companies
Figure 5: Rolling P/BV – small/mid-cap oil services companies
Title:
Source:
14.00
1.80
13.00
12.00
Please fill in the values above
to have
+1SD:
1.6xthem entered in your report
+1SD: 11.8x
1.60
11.00
1.40
5-yr Ave (10-14): 1.4x
10.00
5-yr Ave (10-14): 9.7x
9.00
1.20
-1SD: 1.1x
8.00
1.00
-1SD: 7.6x
7.00
6.00
0.80
5.00
4.00
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
0.60
Jan 10
Jan 15
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 15
Rolling P/BV (x)
12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x)
SOURCES: CIMB
SOURCES: CIMB
Figure 6: 12-month rolling forward core P/E – PACRA
Figure 7: Rolling P/BV – PACRA
2.3 Title:
Source:
2.1
+1SD: 1.9x
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
1.9
16.0
14.0
+1SD: 12.5x
12.0
1.7
Ave: 9.9x
10.0
Jan 14
Ave: 1.7x
1.5
1.3
8.0
-1SD: 7.3x
1.1
6.0
0.9
-1SD: 1.4x
(B2198:B2223)
#VALUE!
Ave: 9.9x
0.7
4.0
Nov 13
Jan 14
Mar 14
May 14
Jul 14
Sep 14
Nov 14
Nov 13
Jan 15
Jan 14
Mar 14
May 14
Jul 14
Sep 14
Nov 14
Jan 15
Rolling P/BV (x)
12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x)
SOURCES: CIMB
SOURCES: CIMB
4
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Figure 8: Peers Comparison
Recom.
Price
(lcl curr)
Target
Price
(lcl curr)
Market
Cap
(US$ m)
P/BV (x)
CY2014
Recurring
ROE (%)
CY2014
Dividend
Yield (%)
CY2014
Add
Add
8.74
3.00
9.31
3.39
11,682
4,621
8.3
11.2
9.0
10.1
10.8
10.3
-11.2%
-1.3%
-8.9%
1.51
2.11
1.65
19.6%
20.7%
19.8%
5.5%
4.3%
5.2%
Cosco Corporation
COS SP
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
YZJSGD SP
Chinese Shipbuilder weighted average
Reduce
Hold
0.54
1.27
0.47
1.22
884
3,590
28.9
6.0
7.2
24.8
7.6
8.9
13.7%
-2.2%
-1.2%
0.90
1.10
1.05
3.2%
19.7%
15.6%
1.6%
5.0%
4.3%
Sembcorp Industries
ST Engineering
SIA Engineering
Industrial conglomerate weighted
Hold
Add
Reduce
4.21
3.59
4.23
4.57
3.93
3.90
5,541
8,232
3,498
9.4
21.8
22.2
15.2
9.2
19.1
23.6
14.6
-4.0%
-2.6%
-16.7%
-5.1%
1.34
4.95
3.61
2.55
15.5%
23.6%
16.4%
17.6%
3.8%
5.1%
4.2%
4.5%
Add
NR
Hold
0.33
0.41
0.59
0.39
na
0.72
503
97
514
6.0
3.6
10.3
7.7
6.6
6.3
3.0
7.7
7.0
5.7
11.6%
-3.7%
1.2%
6.1%
3.0%
1.49
na
0.97
1.16
1.23
29.8%
16.7%
10.4%
17.3%
18.9%
4.5%
2.6%
2.3%
3.3%
3.1%
Ezion Holdings
EZI SP
Ezra Holdings
EZRA SP
Mermaid Maritime
MMT SP
Pacific Radiance
PACRA SP
Pacc Offshore Services Holding
POSH SP
Swiber Holdings
SWIB SP
Swissco Holdings
SWCH SP
Singapore OSV owner (weighted avg - excl NR)
Singapore OSV owner (all simple average)
Add
Add
Hold
Add
NR
Reduce
Add
1.15
0.52
0.26
0.73
0.52
0.18
0.44
1.81
0.83
0.31
1.04
na
0.50
1.20
1,339
389
266
388
700
120
218
7.1
9.9
6.7
5.2
13.2
na
7.9
7.5
8.4
5.9
6.7
18.4
7.0
6.4
50.3
3.9
6.5
14.1
21.8%
298.5%
-18.4%
-2.6%
-0.2%
-82.0%
56.3%
23.5%
39.1%
1.02
0.32
0.47
0.91
0.49
0.16
0.81
0.63
0.60
17.3%
3.3%
7.2%
18.4%
7.6%
-2.7%
13.8%
9.1%
9.3%
0.1%
0.0%
3.4%
3.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
1.0%
Alam Maritim Resources Bhd
AMRB MK
Coastal Contracts Bhd
COCO MK
Malaysia Marine & Heavy Eng
MMHE MK
Perdana Petroleum
PETR MK
Perisai Petroleum
PPT MK
SapuraKencana Petroleum
SAKP MK
TH Heavy Engineering
RH MK
UMW Oil & Gas
UMWOG MK
Malaysia offshore (weighted avg - excl NR)
Malaysia offshore (all simple average)
NR
NR
Reduce
Add
Reduce
Add
Reduce
Add
0.77
3.10
1.37
1.20
0.63
2.81
0.39
2.65
na
na
1.20
1.61
0.61
4.48
0.28
3.43
198
458
608
246
207
4,670
120
1,589
9.9
8.5
16.9
9.9
94.7
10.9
na
22.8
13.5
24.8
9.9
7.9
14.4
9.5
20.5
10.2
21.3
14.8
11.5
13.6
-8.9%
11.6%
-14.7%
19.6%
-41.1%
24.8%
46.9%
34.6%
24.2%
9.1%
0.90
1.15
0.83
1.33
0.62
2.43
1.06
1.79
1.78
1.26
10.9%
15.6%
5.5%
15.5%
0.8%
18.7%
-4.3%
8.9%
12.8%
8.9%
1.0%
2.3%
0.0%
1.7%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.4%
1.0%
0.9%
Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk PT
LEAD IJ
Wintermar Offshore Marine
VARD SP
Indonesia offshore (all simple average)
NR
Hold
1,830
0.59
na
0.72
92
514
4.5
10.3
7.4
3.9
7.7
5.8
1.9%
1.2%
1.5%
0.70
0.97
0.84
16.8%
10.4%
13.6%
3.5%
2.3%
2.9%
Samsung Heavy Industries
010140 KS
Hyundai Heavy Industries
009540 KS
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine
042660 KS
Hyundai Mipo Dockyard
010620 KS
Korean Shipbuilder weighted average
Hold
Add
Add
Add
19,350
114,500
19,100
72,600
19,000
180,000
27,000
140,000
4,065
7,917
3,326
1,321
30.4
na
17.6
na
na
17.3
17.8
9.5
15.0
14.9
-35.9%
31.9%
20.6%
na
14.5%
0.76
0.58
0.72
0.69
0.65
2.6%
-11.4%
4.2%
-24.5%
-7.2%
1.3%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.6%
TK Corp
023160 KQ
Sung Kwang Bend
014620 KQ
Korean offshore equipments weighted average
Add
Add
11,250
13,950
21,000
24,000
271
363
13.3
8.6
10.1
10.4
7.6
8.6
0.2%
-9.1%
-6.1%
0.65
0.86
0.75
4.9%
10.3%
7.7%
0.1%
1.1%
0.7%
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
28.58
19.58
18.61
16.69
38.40
59.00
na
na
na
na
na
na
1,340
696
1,574
419
198
302
10.1
8.0
43.4
7.0
na
9.8
15.7
13.6
15.0
19.4
67.8
4.7
3.9
20.7
0.5%
0.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.55
0.51
0.99
0.43
0.21
0.41
0.52
6.1%
7.1%
1.9%
6.1%
4.2%
14.8%
6.7%
3.5%
0.0%
5.2%
6.0%
7.8%
7.4%
5.0%
23.3
15.1
11.7
13.9
1.6%
9.1%
1.18
1.09
5.2%
9.4%
3.1%
2.4%
Company
Bloomberg
Ticker
Keppel Corporation
KEP SP
Sembcorp Marine
SMM SP
Singapore offshore - big cap weighted average
SCI SP
STE SP
SIE SP
average
Vard Holdings Ltd
NCL SP
Triyards Holdings Ltd
ETL SP
Vard Holdings Ltd
VARD SP
Singapore-listed OSV builder weighted average
Singapore-listed OSV builder (all simple average)
International OSV owner
Tidewater Inc
TDW US
Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc
HOS US
Bourbon SA
GBB FP
Gulfmark Offshore Inc
GLF US
Farstad Shipping ASA
FAR NO
Solstad Offshore ASA
SOFF NO
International OSV owner (all simple average)
Average (All ex NR co)
Average (All simple)
FD Core P/E (x) 2-year EPS
CY2014 CY2015 CAGR (%)
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS, BLOOMBERG
5
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Balance Sheet
Profit & Loss
(US$m)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-14A
172.2
54.2
61.9
(27.9)
34.1
(7.2)
12.5
34.6
74.1
(1.7)
72.4
1.1
Dec-15F
183.5
61.6
66.1
(34.0)
32.1
(8.5)
15.9
15.0
54.5
0.0
54.5
1.0
Dec-16F
253.7
94.1
96.6
(40.0)
56.6
(8.5)
18.1
15.0
81.1
0.0
81.1
(4.1)
(US$m)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-17F
295.7
106.6
112.1
(46.0)
66.1
(8.5)
18.6
15.0
91.3
0.0
91.3
(4.6)
73.5
(1.1)
55.5
0.0
77.1
0.0
86.7
0.0
72.4
74.1
74.1
55.5
55.5
55.5
77.1
77.1
77.1
86.7
86.7
86.7
Dec-15F
52
52
3
55
162
732
81
0
0
814
Dec-16F
61
69
3
55
188
857
99
0
0
957
Dec-17F
70
79
3
55
208
976
118
0
0
1,095
52
56
8
116
276
76
35
7
118
372
96
45
7
148
452
112
53
7
171
516
16
292
0
408
428
4
432
16
388
0
506
466
4
470
16
468
0
616
526
4
530
16
532
0
703
595
4
599
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(US$m)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-14A
61.9
Dec-15F
66.1
Dec-16F
96.6
Dec-17F
112.1
17.1
(31.0)
(7.3)
(2.9)
(1.0)
(1.7)
(7.3)
(3.7)
65.4
(207.1)
170.3
(9.3)
(6.6)
(52.7)
39.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
(8.5)
0.0
26.6
(254.0)
75.0
0.0
0.0
(179.0)
120.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(8.5)
(4.1)
76.7
(225.0)
75.0
0.0
0.0
(150.0)
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(8.5)
(4.6)
96.2
(225.0)
75.0
0.0
0.0
(150.0)
80.0
0.0
(11.4)
(17.4)
(17.4)
(17.4)
0.0
28.0
40.7
52.1
20.2
0.0
102.6
(49.8)
(32.4)
(142.4)
0.0
82.6
9.3
26.7
(63.3)
0.0
62.6
8.8
26.2
(43.8)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (US$)
BVPS (US$)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
45.0
Outstanding Orderbook (US$m)
Order Book Wins (US$m)
Order Book Depletion (US$m)
Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$)
No. Of Ships (unit)
Average Utilisation Rate (%)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan-12
Ezra Holdings
Jan-13
Dec-14A
2.2%
5.7%
36.0%
(0.31)
0.59
3.74
0.00%
15.7%
87.65
10.54
42.09
5.97%
5.04%
Dec-15F
6.5%
6.7%
36.0%
(0.55)
0.64
3.21
0.00%
31.4%
79.91
9.97
38.79
5.27%
4.00%
Dec-16F
38.3%
46.1%
38.1%
(0.67)
0.72
5.66
5.00%
22.6%
77.75
7.63
27.46
7.07%
5.82%
Dec-17F
16.5%
16.1%
37.9%
(0.77)
0.82
6.61
5.00%
20.1%
83.61
6.42
29.05
7.09%
5.87%
Dec-14A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10,721.9
55
80.0%
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
N/A
11,913.6
67
80.0%
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
N/A
14,178.5
73
80.0%
Dec-17F
N/A
N/A
N/A
80.0%
Key Drivers
12-month Forward Rolling FD P/E (x)
50.0
0.0
Jan-11
Dec-14A
101
42
3
55
201
572
66
0
0
638
Jan-14
Mermaid Maritime
Jan-15
Pacific Radiance
6
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
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Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
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February 26, 2015
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a placement within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval of the
Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China.
Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this
research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or
the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no
obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the
basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any
means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written
consent of CIMBS.
CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. may act or acts as Market Maker and issuer including offering of Derivative Warrants Underlying securities
of the following securities. Investors should carefully read and study the details of the derivative warrants in the prospectus before making
investment decisions.
AAV, ADVANC, AMATA, ANAN, AOT, AP, ASP, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCH, BCP, BEC, BECL, BGH, BH, BIGC, BJC, BJCHI, BLA, BLAND, BMCL,
BTS, CENTEL, CK, CPALL, CPF, CPN, DCC, DELTA, DEMCO, DTAC, EARTH, EGCO, ERW, ESSO, GFPT, GLOBAL, GLOW, GUNKUL,
HEMRAJ, HMPRO, INTUCH, IRPC, ITD, IVL, JAS, KBANK, KCE, KKP, KTB, KTC, LH, LOXLEY, LPN, M, MAJOR, MC, MCOT, MEGA, MINT,
NOK, NYT, PS, PSL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, RATCH, ROBINS, RS, SAMART, SCB, SCC, SCCC, SIRI, SPALI, SPCG, SRICHA, STA, STEC,
STPI, SVI, TASCO, TCAP, TFD, THAI, THCOM, THRE, THREL, TICON, TISCO, TMB, TOP, TPIPL, TTA, TTCL, TTW, TUF, UMI, UV, VGI, TRUE,
WHA.
Corporate Governance Report:
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the
policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the
Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public
investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may
be changed after that date. CIMBS does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range:
90 - 100
80 - 89
70 - 79
9
Below 70 or
No Survey Result
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Description:
Excellent
Very Good
Good
N/A
United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing
authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by,
deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report
is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than
the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to
lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory
of the United Arab Emirates.
United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK)
Limited (“CIMB UK”). CIMB UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge,
London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are
persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in matters relating to investments
falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”); (c) are
persons falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the Order; (d) are outside the
United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which this report relates may otherwise lawfully be
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relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which
this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does
not constitute independent "investment research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Consequently, any
such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of
investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer
and a related company of CIMB Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand)
Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited, CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited, and is distributed solely to persons
who qualify as "U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only
for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative
securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional
Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a
recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB
Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order
in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc.
CIMB Securities (USA) Inc does not make a market on the securities mentioned in the report.
Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to
professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 December 2014
1586 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 31 December 2014
Rating Distribution (%)
Investment Banking clients (%)
Add
58.4%
6.0%
Hold
29.4%
4.3%
Reduce
12.2%
1.0%
Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )
Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP)
Hold
Neutral
Apr-14
Reduce
Underperform
Jul-14
10
1.25
na
1.60 Recommendations & Target Price
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Add
Outperform
0.60
Nov-13
Jan-14
1.73
Price Close
Trading Buy
Sep-14
Trading sell
Dec-14
Not Rated
Pacific Radiance│Singapore
February 26, 2015
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2014.
AAV – Very Good, ADVANC – Very Good, AEONTS – not available, AMATA - Good, ANAN – Very Good, AOT – Very Good, AP - Good, ASK – Very Good,
ASP – Very Good, BANPU – Very Good , BAY – Very Good , BBL – Very Good, BCH – not available, BCP - Excellent, BEAUTY – Good, BEC - Good, BECL –
Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Good, BIGC - Very Good, BJC – Good, BLA – Very Good, BMCL - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET – Good,
CENTEL – Very Good, CHG – not available, CK – Very Good, CPALL – not available, CPF – Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DEMCO – Good,
DTAC – Very Good, EA - Good, ECL – not available, EGCO - Excellent, GFPT - Very Good, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Good, GRAMMY - Excellent, HANA Excellent, HEMRAJ – Very Good, HMPRO - Very Good, ICHI - not available, INTUCH - Excellent, ITD – Good, IVL - Excellent, JAS – not available, JUBILE –
not available, KAMART – not available, KBANK - Excellent, KCE - Very Good, KGI – Good, KKP – Excellent, KTB - Excellent, KTC – Good, LH - Very Good,
LPN – Very Good, M - not available, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO – Good, MBKET – Good, MC – Very Good, MCOT – Very Good, MEGA – Good, MINT Excellent, OFM – Very Good, OISHI – Good, PS – Very Good, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, QH – Very Good,
RATCH – Very Good, ROBINS – Very Good, RS – Very Good, SAMART - Excellent, SAPPE - not available, SAT – Excellent, SAWAD – not available, SC –
Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCBLIF – Good, SCC – Very Good, SCCC - Good, SIM - Excellent, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Excellent, STA – Very Good, STEC - Good,
SVI – Very Good, TASCO – Good, TCAP – Very Good, THAI – Very Good, THANI – Very Good, THCOM – Very Good, THRE – not available, THREL – Good,
TICON – Good, TISCO - Excellent, TK – Very Good, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE – Very Good, TTW – Very Good, TUF - Good, VGI – Very Good,
WORK – not available.
CIMB Recommendation Framework
Stock Ratings
Definition:
Add
The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold
The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.
Reduce
The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.
The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward
net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
Sector Ratings
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Definition:
An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.
A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.
An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.
Country Ratings
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Definition:
An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.
An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
*Prior to December 2013 CIMB recommendation framework for stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand,
Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange were
based on a stock’s total return relative to the relevant benchmarks total return. Outperform: expected to exceed by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
Neutral: expected to be within +/-5% over the next 12 months. Underperform: expected to be below by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy:
expected to exceed by 3% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: expected to be below by 3% or more over the next 3 months. For stocks listed on
Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Outperform: Expected positive total returns of 10% or
more over the next 12 months. Neutral: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. Underperform: Expected negative total
returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: Expected
negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.
11