Nok Airlines (NOK TB) แนวโน้มฟื้นตัวในปี 2558

Results Review, 2 March 2015
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
Buy (Maintained)
Transport - Aviation
Market Cap: USD263m
Target Price:
Price:
THB16.00
THB13.60
Macro
แนวโน้มฟื้ นต ัวในปี 2558
Risks
Growth
Value
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
22.0
118
20.0
105
18.0
91
16.0
78
14.0
65
12.0
51
10.0
120
38
0
0
.
2
0
0
NOK (Top Pick ในกลุ่มการบิน) บันทึกผลประกอบการทีน
่ ่าผิดหวังในปี 2557 ด ้วย .
0
้ ” ทีร่ าคา 0
มูลค่าขาดทุนจากการดาเนินงานมูลค่า 501 ล ้านบาท ยัง คงแนะนา “ซือ
เป้ าหมายเท่ากับ 16.00 บาท (18% upside) โดยผลประกอบการได ้รับแรงกดดันจาก 0
yield ทีล
่ ดลงแม ้ว่า unit cost จะเริม
่ ฟื้ นตัว ทัง้ นี้ ด ้วยแนวโน ้ม yield ทีเ่ ริม
่ ดีขน
ึ้ ในปี
2558 และ unit cost ทีล
่ ดลงจากราคาน้ ามันดิบทีต
่ ่า คาดว่าผลประกอบการในปี นี้จะ
เริม
่ ดีขน
ึ้

80
60

Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (THB)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
99.7m/3.04m
27.9
17.7
11.6 - 20.2
30
625
Thai Airways International
Aviation Investment
State Street Bank Europe
39.2
9.5
6.8
Share Performance (%)
มุมมอง
ในช่วงกลางปี 2557 ทีผ
่ ่านมา NOK ได ้ปรับแผนการให ้บริก ารเสริม (Ancillary
Service) ซึง่ จะส่งผลดีตอ
่ yield ในปี 2558 ประกอบกับความต ้องการท่องเทีย
่ วที่
ฟื้ นตัว เราจึง คาดว่า yield จะเริม
่ ฟื้ นตั วดีข น
ึ้ ราว +3.7% y-o-y ในปี 2558
นอกจากนัน
้ บริษัทคาดว่า unit cost จะลดลงอีกราว 5% y-o-y จากค่าซ่อมบารุง
ทีล
่ ดลง และการปรับลดค่าใช ้จ่ายทางการตลาด
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Vol m
20
ผลประกอบการน่าผิดหว ัง
NOK บันทึก ผลประกอบการทีน
่ ่ าผิด หวังในปี 2557 ด ้วยมูลค่า ขาดทุนจากการ
ดาเนินงานมูลค่า 501 ล ้านบาท ต่ากว่าคาดการณ์ของเราทีข
่ าดทุน 99 ล ้านบาท
จาก yield ทีย
่ ังคงย่าแย่ ทัง้ นี้ หากไม่รวมรายการขาดทุนจากการเริม
่ ดาเนินการ
NOK Scoot มูลค่า 61.2 ล ้านบาท คาดว่าผู ้ประกอบการจะผ่านจุดคุ ้มทุนในไตร
มาส 4/57 ในขณะที่ unit cost และค่าใช ้จ่า ยไม่ร วมน้ ามั นฟื้ นตัว 1.7% และ
2.7% y-o-y ตามลาดับโดย yield ทีล
่ ดลงอย่างมีนัยสาคัญ (ลดลงราว 11.4% yo-y) เป็ นเหตุผลหลักของการขาดทุนในปี ทีผ
่ ่านมา (yield ได ้รับแรงกดดันจาก
ปั ญหาทางการเมืองและการแข่งขันในอุตสาหกรรมทีท
่ วีความรุนแรง)
100
40


2

.
2
0
.
2





ประมาณการ
เรายังคงประมาณการเดิม โดยยังคาดว่าจะยังคงบันทึกขาดทุนจากการดาเนินการ
Nok Scoot มูล ค่ า 180 ล ้านบาทในปี 2558 และ 75 ล ้านบาทในปี 2559
ตามลาดับ แต่การร่วมมือทางพันธมิตรในครัง้ นี้จะช่วยหนุน traffic และ yield ให ้ดี
ขึน
้

้ ”
ย ังคงแนะนา “ซือ
้ ” เนื่องจากมูลค่าประเมิน PE ปี 2558 ที่ 11.1x ยังคงถูก ราคา
ยังคงแนะนา “ซือ
เป้ าหมายเท่ากับ 16.00 บาทอิงจาก PE ปี 2558 ที่ 13x โดย NOK ยังคงเป็ นหุ ้น
Top Pick ในกลุม
่ การบินด ้วยผลตอบแทนปั นผลถึง 4-7% ในปี 2558-59
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
3.8
(6.2)
14.3
(16.1)
(26.1)
Forecasts and Valuations
Relative
(2.6)
(6.4)
14.7
(18.0)
(47.0)
Total turnover (THBm)
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
8,218
11,180
12,160
16,851
19,672
Reported net profit (THBm)
505
1,066
(472)
767
1,231
Recurring net profit (THBm)
748
1,063
(501)
767
1,231
278.2
42.2
(147.2)
Recurring EPS (THB)
1.50
1.70
(0.80)
1.23
1.97
Veena Naidu + 66 2862 9752
DPS (THB)
1.10
1.03
0.00
0.59
0.95
[email protected]
Recurring P/E (x)
9.1
8.0
Ahmad Maghfur Usman 603 9207 7654
P/B (x)
7.66
1.87
[email protected]
P/CF (x)
7.95
4.48
8.1
7.6
6.65
3.25
Shariah compliant
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
59.9
net cash
39.3
net cash
na
2.25
na
0.0
na
(11.3)
net cash
na
60.5
11.1
6.9
1.95
1.67
8.72
6.29
4.3
7.0
7.62
3.03
18.9
net cash
4.8
26.0
net cash
16.6
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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1
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
2 March 2015
Figure 1: Nok’s key operating metrics
ASK (available service km)
RPK (revenue passenger km)
Load factor (%)
Adjusted passenger yield (THB/RPK)
Adjusted unit cost (THB/ASK)
4Q13
4Q14
1,186.0
942.7
79.5
3.23
2.47
1,510.1
1,257.4
83.3
2.78
2.29
YoY %
chg
27.3
33.4
3.8
(14.0)
(7.2)
FY13
FY14
4,247.0
3,567.0
84.0
3.13
2.39
5,375.0
4,372.0
81.3
2.78
2.35
YoY %
chg
26.6
22.6
-2.6
-11.4
-1.7
Remarks
Hit by political woes and stiff competition
Overall costs – both fuel and non-fuel – improved
as more economies of scale were achieved from
the larger fleet size
Source: RHB, Company data
Figure 2: Nok’s results review table (THBm)
FY13
FY14
3,514.3
YoY %
chg
15.3
11,179.8
12,159.5
YoY %
chg
8.8
(2,995.9)
(3,653.1)
21.9
(10,205.9)
(12,882.8)
26.2
52.4
(138.9)
(364.9)
973.8
(723.3)
(174.3)
Depreciation and amortisation
EBIT
Interest income
Interest expense
EI
PBT
Tax
PAT
MI
PATAMI
(12.9)
39.5
39.2
0.0
(5.9)
72.8
63.3
136.1
0.0
136.1
(28.2)
(167.1)
12.5
0.0
39.4
(115.1)
(0.6)
(115.7)
135.2
19.5
118.6
(522.6)
(68.0)
NM
(766.4)
(258.2)
(100.9)
(185.0)
NM
(85.7)
(50.8)
923.0
106.5
0.0
3.2
1,032.7
33.4
1,066.1
0.0
1,066.1
(70.1)
(793.4)
100.6
(2.3)
29.6
(665.4)
(0.4)
(665.8)
194.1
(471.7)
38.0
(186.0)
(5.5)
NM
823.5
(164.4)
(101.2)
(162.4)
NM
(144.2)
Core PATAMI
142.0
(19.9)
(114.0)
1,062.9
(501.3)
(147.2)
Revenue
Costs
EBITDA
4Q13
4Q14
3,048.3
Remarks
Despite RPK surging 22.6% on eight aircraft
deliveries in FY14, the growth in revenue was
a mere 8.8% as a result to yields dropping
11.4% YoY
Unit costs decreased 1.7% YoY but, excluding
fuel costs, unit costs decreased much more at
2.7%. The higher costs overall were largely
due to higher capacity added
The yield drop of 11.4% was sharper than the
drop of 1.7% in unit costs. This led to EBITDA
going into losses. Furthermore, there was an
additional EBITDA loss as a result of the Nok
Scoot JV
Nok Scoot JV contributed approximately
THB61.2m in losses in FY14
Below
Source: RHB, Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
2 March 2015
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm)
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Total turnover
8,218
11,180
12,160
16,851
Dec-16F
19,672
Cost of sales
(7,495)
(10,257)
(12,953)
(16,288)
(18,511)
Gross profit
722
923
(793)
563
1,161
Operating profit
722
923
(793)
563
1,161
Operating EBITDA
773
974
(723)
631
1,239
Depreciation of fixed assets
(38)
(35)
(42)
(45)
Amortisation of intangible assets
(12)
(16)
(28)
(23)
Operating EBIT
722
923
(793)
563
1,161
41
106
101
Interest income
Interest expense
Exceptional income - net
-
Pre-tax profit
520
Taxation
(15)
Minority interests
-
Profit after tax & minorities
3
1,033
(27)
185
256
(2)
-
-
30
-
-
(243)
(50)
(665)
33
(0)
748
(161)
1,417
(261)
-
194
180
75
505
1,066
(472)
767
1,231
Reported net profit
505
1,066
(472)
767
1,231
Recurring net profit
748
1,063
(501)
767
1,231
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
722
923
(793)
563
1,161
50
51
70
68
77
Other operating cash flow
121
945
(1,708)
480
334
Operating cash flow
894
1,918
(2,431)
1,111
1,573
Tax paid
(39)
Cash flow from operations
856
Source: Company data, RHB
Cash flow (THBm)
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Capex
(23)
1,895
Dec-14
(11)
(2,443)
(58)
(63)
Other investing cash flow
(322)
(2,478)
2,943
Cash flow from investing activities
(380)
(2,541)
2,718
3,250
-
Proceeds from issue of shares
-
Other financing cash flow
(414)
Cash flow from financing activities
(414)
(670)
(225)
458
(136)
975
(220)
1,352
(80)
(80)
141
194
61
114
(184)
2,580
458
185
246
2,193
2,927
3,959
Total cash generated
62
1,934
733
852
985
Forex effects
(0)
-
-
-
2,927
3,779
4,944
Cash at beginning of period
Implied cash at end of period
246
12
2,193
(184)
(481)
(481)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
2 March 2015
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
1,656
5,333
3,227
4,259
5,319
4
11
17
27
85
Accounts receivable
30
73
86
62
73
Other current assets
408
606
1,854
1,715
1,667
2,098
6,024
5,184
6,063
7,144
5
6
47
6
6
Tangible fixed assets
81
93
254
292
336
Intangible assets
34
54
46
72
75
Total other assets
35
95
1,037
1,219
1,219
Total cash and equivalents
Inventories
Total current assets
Total investments
Total non-current assets
155
248
1,385
1,589
1,636
2,252
6,272
6,569
7,652
8,780
Accounts payable
420
413
543
721
818
Other current liabilities
851
1,160
1,445
1,751
2,001
Total assets
Total current liabilities
1,271
1,572
1,989
2,471
2,819
Other liabilities
93
156
231
248
279
Total non-current liabilities
93
156
231
248
279
1,364
1,728
2,220
2,719
3,098
Share capital
500
625
625
625
625
Retained earnings reserve
388
876
104
687
1,437
Total liabilities
Other reserves
-
3,042
3,042
3,042
3,042
Shareholders' equity
888
4,543
3,771
4,354
5,104
Minority interests
-
578
578
578
Total equity
888
4,543
4,349
4,933
5,682
2,252
6,272
6,569
7,652
8,780
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
36.1
36.0
8.8
38.6
16.7
Operating profit growth (%)
180.9
27.8
(186.0)
0.0
106.2
Net profit growth (%)
152.6
111.2
(144.2)
0.0
60.5
EPS growth (%)
152.6
69.0
(144.2)
0.0
60.5
11.4
309.3
(17.0)
15.5
17.2
Operating margin (%)
8.8
8.3
(6.5)
3.3
5.9
Net profit margin (%)
6.1
9.5
(3.9)
4.6
6.3
23.7
25.0
(7.3)
10.8
15.0
Total liabilities & equity
-
Source: Company data, RHB
Key Ratios (THB)
Revenue growth (%)
Bv per share growth (%)
Return on average assets (%)
Return on average equity (%)
59.9
39.3
(11.3)
18.9
26.0
(186.5)
(117.4)
(74.2)
(86.3)
(93.6)
DPS
1.10
1.03
0.00
0.59
0.95
Recurrent cash flow per share
1.71
3.03
(3.91)
1.56
2.16
Net debt to equity (%)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
2 March 2015
SWOT Analysis
 Thailand is a popular tourism destination
 Earnings are
susceptible to
volatility in jet
fuel prices
 Favourable demographics
 Extensive booking and payment distribution channel
 Fierce
competition in
the Thailand
aviation
landscape
 Room to
increase
gearing for
aircraft
acquisitions
 Nok-Scoot joint-venture (JV) could lead to start-up
losses over its first three years of operations
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
200
2500%
9.0
70%
180
2200%
8.0
60%
160
1900%
7.0
50%
140
1600%
6.0
40%
120
1300%
5.0
30%
100
1000%
4.0
20%
3.0
10%
80
700%
-20%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-16
0.0
Jan-15
-500%
Jan-14
-10%
0
Jan-13
1.0
Jan-12
-200%
Jan-16
0%
20
Jan-15
2.0
Jan-14
100%
Jan-13
400%
40
Jan-12
60
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB
Company Profile
Nok Airlines (Nok) is one of Thailand’s leading low-cost carriers with the most extensive domestic route coverage. It operates out of two
hubs, in Chiang Mai and Don Mueang.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)
2 March 2015
Recommendation Chart
Sell
Trading Buy
May-14
16.0
15.2
15.0
18.6
30.8
37.6
19.8
Price Close
30.0 Recommendations & Target Price
28.0
26.0
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
Buy
Neutral
10.0
Jun-13
Nov-13
Take Profit
Not Rated
Oct-14
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
Target Price
Price
2015-01-16
Buy
16.0
13.5
2014-08-11
Sell
15.2
16.7
2014-05-12
Sell
15.0
16.5
2014-03-03
Neutral
18.6
18.5
2014-01-22
Neutral
19.8
18.3
2013-11-08
Buy
30.8
24.0
2013-06-19
Buy
37.6
0.0
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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