Global Insight Weekly - RBC Wealth Management USA
Transcription
Global Insight Weekly - RBC Wealth Management USA
R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T GLOBAL INSIGHT W E E K L Y MARCH 13, 2015 A C LO S E R LO O K Can the U.S. Cope With King Dollar? Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco The ultra-strong dollar and months of soft data have raised questions about whether the U.S. economy can continue to lead. There are a number of reasons we believe it can. This cycle, the strong dollar should continue to constrain S&P 500 earnings growth and exports until the rally moderates. The 2015 S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate has come down to $120/share* from $133 last October due to the dollar run and crude oil collapse. The estimate is vulnerable to pulling back further if the dollar continues to race higher in the near term. Regardless, the economy should be able to weather a strong dollar and grow at a reasonable pace because it is much *Consensus earnings data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Click here for authors’ contact information. Priced as of 3/13/15 market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Important and Required Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosures, see page 6. Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; TWD data through 3/6/15, DXY data through 3/12/15 M A R K ET P U L S E 3 What’s in store for the upcoming Fed meeting? 3 Job losses mount in Canada’s resources sector 4 Select European industries benefitting from the weak euro 4 China takes a big step to reduce local debts and tail risks 2015 2012 2009 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 During two similar rallies, economic growth varied widely. After the dollar surged in the early 1980s, the economy quickly fell back into recession (a number of factors caused this, including the Fed’s aggressive battle against inflation). However, in the mid-1980s, real GDP growth averaged 4.2% in the four quarters following the sharp dollar rally. 1982 For starters, there is no direct correlation between the dollar’s performance and economic growth. 1979 We don’t think so. US Dollar Index (y/y % chg) US Trade Weighted Dollar (y/y % chg) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 1976 Might the dollar’s outsized-move stop the nearly six-year economic expansion in its tracks and knock the U.S. off its leadership perch? One of the Strongest Rallies for the Dollar in Four Decades 1973 The dollar is in the midst of the third-strongest rally of the past four decades. The trade-weighted index, which values the dollar against the currencies of major trading partners, has sprinted 20% year over year. The U.S. Dollar Index has surged 25% during the same period (see chart). Low-Income Wage Growth Has Outpaced High-Income in the Past Two Years Weekly Earnings for Full-Time Wage and Salary Workers by Income Quantile (annualized growth) The U.S. economy also has a sturdier foundation than commonly given credit; it has been shored up significantly. Bank balance sheets are the strongest they’ve been since long before the financial crisis. We believe the dollar rally is indicative of this underlying durability. These are among the reasons we believe the U.S. economy will remain relatively sturdy, and the equity market can deliver worthwhile returns this year, albeit perhaps with some bumps along the way. 2013–2014 10th Percentile 0.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 2.5% 2.6% 0.9% Importantly, the economic recovery is finally broadening out. For example, wage growth among lower-income segments has outpaced higher-income segments in the past two years (see chart). Consumer debt levels have plunged—private sector debt as a percent of nominal GDP has retreated to 144% from a peak of almost 170% in 2009; consumer debt is down roughly 20% during the same period. Optimism among CFOs has climbed to its highest level in almost eight years. 2009–2012 1.0% more insular and less dependent on trade than other large economies. Exports typically represent only 10%–14% of U.S. GDP (by comparison: Germany 50%, Canada and U.K. 30%, China 26%). 25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile 90th Percentile Source - RBC Wealth Management, national research correspondent, Bureau of Labor Statistics WWHHATAT’ S’ SMMOOV VI NI NGGMMA AR RK KETETS S Currencies in the Driver’s Seat The European Central Bank’s (ECB) first week of bond purchases contributed to significant moves in global markets, including a 3.2% decline in the euro to 1.05 versus the dollar, its lowest level since early 2003, and declines of 3%+ in some emerging market currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index rallied 5.1%, in the past two weeks, the biggest back-to-back gain since May 2010. Many equity markets jostled back and forth, influenced by currency movements: China, Japan, and Europe outperformed; the U.K., Canada, and the U.S. lagged. European sovereign bond yields ratcheted lower again as the ECB sopped up supply. Germany’s 30-year yield dipped to 0.696% midweek (that’s not a typo). The yield spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bund climbed to its highest level since 1989 at 190 basis points (bps). RBC Capital Markets believes the spread will widen further, to more than 200 bps, as the Federal Reserve begins to normalize U.S. interest rates. Crude oil prices retreated as the dollar rallied and data showed another build in U.S. oil inventories, which are quite extended relative to normal levels this time of year (see chart). WTI oil has been weaker than Brent lately; it traded down to $44.84/bbl late Friday. It is testing its January closing low of $44.45/bbl. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Oil Market Looks Oversupplied Relative to the Historical Norm U.S. Oil Supply/Demand Ratio (13-week moving avg - left axis) 3-year Average Supply/Demand Ratio (left axis) WTI Oil Price ($/bbl - right axis) 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 Jan-14 Apr-14 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Source - RBC Capital Markets U.S. Economics, Haver Analytics; data for supply/demand and price through 3/6/15 March 13, 2015 2 U N I T E D S T AT E S The Path for Fed Funds - Mixed Messages Craig Bishop – Minneapolis The March 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting could very well be the most important in some time, as it should provide the most significant hints to date about when the Fed will begin to reduce the size of the punchbowl. The following are issues we believe investors should focus on: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Forward Guidance – If the word “patient” is dropped from the Fed’s official statement, it would leave economic data as the main tool to guide monetary policy (data dependency), and would give the Fed flexibility to raise interest rates at any subsequent meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in late April; but realistically, June provides the most likely first launch date. The Economy – In January, the Fed noted economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, so, we believe continued improvement should provide cover to begin hiking rates. Unemployment currently sits at the top of the Fed’s full employment range of 5.2%–5.5% and GDP growth could approach 3% this year. Inflation is still well below the Fed’s 2% threshold (core PCE at 1.3%), but the Fed feels confident it will move toward its target level in coming months. Mixed Messages – Survey-based economic measures (those mentioned above) support a June hike, but marketbased measures suggest a move later in the year. While Fed officials have struggled with the mixed signals from time to time, in recent missives they have been clear in stating “the market may be disappointed”—meaning, a rate hike could occur this summer. The “Dots” – Market expectations have the peak or terminal Fed Funds rate at about 2.65% past 2018; but the Fed’s indicated level is about 100 basis points higher (see chart). Will Fed members’ projections, or “dots,” ratchet down to reflect market expectations? The Tightening Cycle – In our view, the abundance of attention given to the first rate hike is short-sighted; the bigger focus should be on the speed and duration of the tightening cycle itself. We believe it will be different this time as slow growth, low inflation, and accommodative global central banks allow the Fed time to assess the impact of each move. We expect a much slower, longer tightening cycle than normal. This may be a topic for Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference. While parsing “Fed-speak” is definitely more art than science, at this point we believe Yellen’s Monetary Policy Report to Congress last month indicates the process has begun in earnest to communicate the Fed’s intention to hike rates for the first time in almost nine years. Various Fed officials suggest this will happen in June; RBC Capital Markets and many others agree. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY FOMC Median 4.0% 3.5% Primary Dealer Median Market-Based Expectations 3.0% 3.63% 2.50% 2.5% 2.65% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 2.03% 1.13% 1.43% 1.0% 0.5% 3.75% 0.60% Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Longer Term Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, January 2015 Primary Dealer Survey; data on 03/12/2015 CANADA Patrick McAllister & Alana Awad – Toronto ■ The S&P/TSX Composite declined, with nearly every sector contributing to the weakness. The resource sectors were particularly hard hit as energy and gold bullion prices sagged. The gold price sank to a year-to-date low amid persistent U.S. dollar strength. ■ PotashCorp shares retreated as investors fretted over the lack of a new supply contract between Capotex, the marketing venture for North American potash producers, and China. Bearish 2015 outlook commentary from Uralkali, a large Russian-based potash producer, also weighed on sentiment. ■ The Canadian unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.2% to 6.8% in February. But, employment in Alberta softened with 14,000 jobs lost. Employment in the province’s natural resources sector has decreased by 20,000 since its most recent peak in September 2014. ■ Government bond yields trended downward for most of the week, retracing some of the move higher that occurred when the Bank of Canada held rates constant at 0.75% on March 4. ■ The Canadian Dollar continues to hit new 10-year lows and reached $0.780 versus the U.S. dollar. ■ There were five preferred share new issues that began trading during the week, all of which traded down from their issuance price. Overall, the preferred share market exhibited some weakness during the week as government yield levels moved lower. ■ Unlike the preferred share market, there has been only modest credit spread widening in response to the flurry of March 13, 2015 3 new issue activity that has occurred recently. The resilience of the credit market speaks to the continued demand for corporate product. The Weaker Yen Has Helped Lift Japanese Equities 20000 130 Nikkei (left axis) USD/JPY (right axis) 120 17000 EUROPE Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London ■ ■ European equities continued their positive trend on increasing expectations of future improvements in macroeconomic data for the eurozone and on the back of a positive earnings revision. This was mainly driven by further euro currency weakness following the start of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Quantitative Easing (QE) program. The Stoxx 600 Index increased 0.62% to 396.61 during the week. Its year-to-date performance stands at +15.79%, a relevant outperformance compared to global indexes, although the currency impact brings this result in U.S. dollars to +0.45%, in line with other developed markets. The ongoing ECB QE program continues, however, to be supportive for sentiment and the positive momentum of European stocks. The QE liquidity injection should boost Eurozone GDP growth. RBC Capital Markets estimates it will rise 0.4%–0.5% q/q from here onward versus the 0.1%–0.3% q/q range of the past two years. ■ Sectors with high exposure to international revenues, including autos, chemical, and health care, that can benefit most from the currency weakness, again drove the indexes. The oil & gas and mining sectors, on the contrary, continued their relative underperformance on the back of weaker commodity prices and exposure to Emerging Markets, negatively impacted by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. ■ In the U.K., the FTSE 100 Index retreated further from the recent record high 6,961.14 level on the back of the highly weighted oil sector’s poor performance. Recent improvements in unemployment data are supportive for consumer demand and, therefore, for some segments of the U.K. equity market including the retail and services sectors. However, the May 2015 general election represents another reason for short-term concern for U.K. equities. Policy-sensitive sectors like utilities and banks are likely to be impacted by potential government interventions. A S I A PA C I F I C Jay Roberts – Hong Kong ■ 110 14000 100 11000 90 80 8000 5000 2009 70 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through GMT 14:09 on 3/13/15 concerned about its size (RMB 10.9T according to a 2013 audit) and quality. Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said the State Council has approved a debt-swap of RMB 1T ($160B) for local governments and that a detailed plan will be announced soon. In our view, this is a meaningful development in addressing an issue that has been left hanging for several years. Chinese bank stocks rallied on the news. ■ The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%. This was not expected in consensus forecasts, although RBC Capital Markets was expecting a rate cut to come. The USD/KRW rallied up to 1135. RBC Capital Markets remains positive on the USD/KRW pair, targeting 1150 as the first stop before reassessing. ■ RBC Capital Markets commented that the BoK “cited the slower than expected recovery in the domestic economy, and inflation remaining lower for longer than previously expected as reasons for the cut. BoK Governor Lee suggested that the rate cut was pre-emptive, rather than the start of a string of cuts. Going forward, we expect that any further rate cuts will be data dependent. Governor Lee also said that big variables going forward now will be when the Federal Reserve hikes rates and at what speed.” ■ It was another strong week for Japanese equities with the Nikkei and TOPIX indexes rallying to fresh highs. A weaker yen aided the rally. Japanese equities may be in overbought territory in the short term, in our view, although we maintain our positive, long-term stance. China announced a debt-swap plan relating to local government debt. The debt has been a much-discussed issue over the past several years with market participants GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY March 13, 2015 4 M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D Data as of March 13, 2015 Equities (local currency) S&P 500 Dow Industrials (DJIA) NASDAQ Russell 2000 Level 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos Govt Bonds (bps chg) Yield 1 Week MTD 2,053.40 -0.9% -2.4% -0.3% 11.2% U.S. 2-Yr Tsy 0.657% -6.6 3.9 17,749.31 -0.6% -2.1% -0.4% 10.2% U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.118% -12.4 4,871.76 -1.1% -1.8% 2.9% 14.3% Canada 2-Yr 0.554% -7.3 YTD 12 Mos -0.7 31.9 12.5 -5.4 -52.7 8.2 -45.8 -45.0 1,232.14 1.2% -0.1% 2.3% 4.7% Canada 10-Yr 1.477% -13.6 17.6 -31.1 -90.7 S&P/TSX Comp 14,731.49 -1.5% -3.3% 0.7% 3.4% U.K. 2-Yr 0.486% -14.0 5.2 4.0 -12.2 FTSE All Share 3,648.24 -2.2% -2.6% 3.3% 3.2% U.K. 10-Yr 1.709% -23.9 -8.7 -4.7 -97.8 396.61 0.6% 1.1% 15.8% 22.2% Germany 2-Yr -0.231% -2.4 -0.4 -13.3 -37.2 Germany 10-Yr 0.257% -13.6 -7.1 -28.4 -128.4 STOXX Europe 600 German DAX 11,901.61 3.0% 4.4% 21.4% 32.0% Hang Seng 23,823.21 -1.4% -4.0% 0.9% 9.5% Shanghai Comp 3,372.91 4.1% 1.9% 4.3% 67.0% Nikkei 225 19,254.25 1.5% 2.4% 10.3% 30.0% India Sensex 28,503.30 -3.2% -2.5% 3.7% 30.9% 3,362.77 -1.6% -1.2% -0.1% 9.1% Brazil Ibovespa 48,595.81 -2.8% -5.8% -2.8% 6.9% Mexican Bolsa IPC 44,002.29 1.7% -0.4% 2.0% 15.7% Singapore Straits Times Commodities (USD) Gold (spot $/oz) Silver (spot $/oz) Price 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos Currencies Rate U.S. Dollar Index 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos 100.18 2.6% 5.1% 11.0% 25.8% CAD/USD 0.78 -1.3% -2.2% -9.1% -13.4% USD/CAD 1.28 1.3% 2.2% 10.0% 15.4% EUR/USD 1.05 -3.2% -6.3% -13.2% -24.3% GBP/USD 1.47 -1.9% -4.5% -5.3% -11.3% AUD/USD 0.76 -1.0% -2.2% -6.6% -15.5% USD/CHF 1.00 1.9% 5.3% 1.1% 14.9% 1,156.70 -0.9% -4.7% -2.4% -15.6% USD/JPY 121.38 0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 19.2% 15.61 -1.9% -6.0% -0.6% -26.3% EUR/JPY 127.41 -2.7% -4.9% -12.0% -9.8% 5,867.00 1.8% -1.0% -7.9% -8.9% EUR/GBP 0.71 -1.3% -1.9% -8.3% -14.7% Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 44.84 -9.6% -9.9% -15.8% -54.3% EUR/CHF 1.05 -1.4% -1.3% -12.3% -13.1% Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 54.51 -8.7% -12.9% -4.9% -49.2% USD/SGD 1.39 1.1% 2.2% 5.1% 9.9% 2.73 -3.9% -0.2% -5.6% -37.8% USD/CNY 6.26 -0.1% -0.2% 0.9% 2.0% 298.70 0.8% -2.6% -7.4% -25.5% USD/BRL 3.24 5.7% 14.0% 21.9% 37.0% Copper ($/metric ton) Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) Agriculture Index Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 9:35 pm GMT 3/13/15. Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.78 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.78 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -13.4% return means the Canadian dollar fell 13.4% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 121.38 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 121.38 yen. USD/JPY 19.2% return means the U.S. dollar rose 19.2% vs. the yen year to date. U P CO M I N G EV E N TS MON, MAR 16 WED, MAR 18 FRI, MAR 20, cont. U.S. Industrial Production (0.3% m/m) U.K. Unemployment (5.7%) Canada CPI (1.0% y/y, Core 2.1% y/y) TUE, MAR 17 BoE MPC meeting minutes Canada Retail Sales (-0.5% m/m) China Property Prices Fed meeting (day 2 of 2) BoJ meeting THU, MAR 19 Japan Exports (0.2% y/y) ECB TLTRO – 3rd allotment results Eurozone Unemployment FRI, MAR 20 Eurozone ZEW Surveys U.K. Public Finances Eurozone CPI (-0.3% y/y, Core 0.6% y/y) U.S. Leading Index (0.3% m/m) All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY March 13, 2015 5 AUTHORS Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Craig Bishop – Minneapolis, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada Distribution of Ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Alana Awad, Patrick McAllister, and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts. In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information by reference. To access current disclosures, clients should refer to http://www. rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2 to view disclosures regarding RBC Wealth Management and its affiliated firms. Such information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth Management Publishing, 60 South Sixth St, Minneapolis, MN 55402. References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL9), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Rating Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research As of December 31, 2014 Investment Banking Services Provided During Past 12 Months Count Percent Count Percent Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] Hold [Sector Perform] Sell [Underperform] 897 686 112 52.92 40.47 6.61 290 137 6 32.33 19.97 5.36 Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). Ratings: Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months. Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months. Risk Rating: As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of financial and/or stock price volatility. Valuation and Price Target Impediments When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report, FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into the FINRA Rulebook) require that the basis for the valuation and the impediments to obtaining that valuation be described. Where applicable, this information is included in the text of our research in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Price Target Impediment”, respectively. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates. Other Disclosures Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material provided by our third-party correspondent research services. Our third-party correspondent has given RBC Wealth Management general permission to use its research reports as source materials, but has not reviewed or approved this report, nor has it been informed of its publication. Our third-party correspondent may from time to time have long or short positions in, effect transactions in, and make markets in securities referred to herein. Our third-party correspondent may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. March 13, 2015 6 RBC Wealth Management endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. In certain investment advisory accounts, RBC Wealth Management will act as overlay manager for our clients and will initiate transactions in the securities referenced herein for those accounts upon receipt of this report. These transactions may occur before or after your receipt of this report and may have a short-term impact on the market price of the securities in which transactions occur. RBC Wealth Management research is posted to our proprietary Web sites to ensure eligible clients receive coverage initiations and changes in rating, targets, and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by sales personnel via e-mail, fax, or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via third-party vendors. Please contact your RBC Wealth Management Financial Advisor for more information regarding RBC Wealth Management research. Conflicts Disclosure: RBC Wealth Management is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker/dealer and an investment adviser, offering both brokerage and investment advisory services. RBC Wealth Management’s Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on our Web site at http://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup. aspx?EntityID=2. Conflicts of interests related to our investment advisory business can be found in Part II of the Firm’s Form ADV or the Investment Advisor Group Disclosure Document. Copies of any of these documents are available upon request through your Financial Advisor. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy, Part II of the ADV, or Disclosure Document at any time. The authors are employed by one of the following entities: RBC Wealth Management USA, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Minnesota and New York, USA; by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Toronto, Canada; by RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Hong Kong, China; and by Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited, an investment management company with principal offices located in London, United Kingdom. Research Resources This document is produced by the Global Portfolio Advisory Committee within RBC Wealth Management’s Portfolio Advisory Group. The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory Group provides support related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for the firm’s Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in assembling portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities. The Committee leverages the broad market outlook as developed by the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, providing additional tactical and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources. The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients, including clients who are affiliates of Royal Bank of Canada, and does not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who may read it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. To the full extent permitted by law neither Royal Bank of Canada nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of Royal Bank of Canada. Additional information is available upon request. To U.S. Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. RBC Capital Markets, LLC, is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC. International investing involves risks not typically associated with U.S. investing, including currency fluctuation, foreign taxation, political instability and different accounting standards. To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. RBC Wealth Management is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. To European Residents: Clients of United Kingdom subsidiaries may be entitled to compensation from the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme if any of these entities cannot meet its obligations. This depends on the type of business and the circumstances of the claim. Most types of investment business are covered for up to a total of £50,000. The Channel Islands subsidiaries are not covered by the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme; the offices of Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited in Guernsey and Jersey are covered by the respective compensation schemes in these jurisdictions for deposit taking business only. To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited and RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited, licensed corporations under the Securities and Futures Ordinance or, by Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong (telephone number is 2848-1388). To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC (Singapore Branch) and RBC (Asia) Limited, registered entities granted offshore bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2015 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2015 - Member CIPF Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2015 Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2015 All rights reserved March 13, 2015 7