chapter 1 - The Aztlan Protocol

The Aztlan Protocol
Chapter One
Oval Office, White House, Washington DC
Secretary of State Tony Anderson had seen it coming. He had
written about it, warned of it, and done everything he could to avoid it. A
glacial geopolitical shift in global power was about to release its
accumulated seismic energy, in a violent reordering of the international
hierarchy. Of that, he was certain. Was the world on the threshold of
nuclear Armageddon, possibly? He entered the west entrance to the
west wing, waved through by the two ribbon Marine corporal on duty.
The president was expecting him.
The late afternoon light threw dull columns across the floor. A
presidential seal prominently occupied the carpet’s center. Beige, blue
and gold wallpaper, decorated the walls. Walnut coffee tables, matching
ceramic lamps with cream shades, stood at the end of each sofa. By the
fireplace, two armchairs, the setting for many press photographs with
foreign dignitaries, stood sentinel. The nineteenth century resolute desk,
a gift from Queen Victoria, luxuriated in the fading daylight; it was a
piece of history, like the Oval Office itself.
Anderson, the newly appointed secretary of state, followed Alison
Mezvinsky, President of the United States of America into the room. She
was running for re-election, a second term, the electioneering,
previously in full swing, was on hold.
The president wore her auburn hair short with stylish layering. Her
perfectly featured face disguised by a look of angst. At five foot eleven,
she looked and was athletic. She strode purposefully across the room to
her desk. The tension in her voice warned of her anger at a forced return
to Washington.
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
Anderson, a freckled middle-aged professor, with thinning hair,
was in need of more exercise than he got, and could do to lose a few
more pounds than he would admit. He settled on one of the sofas.
Previously, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, his appointment as
secretary of state, an unpopular choice, followed the sudden death of
the incumbent, Malcolm Clarke. Like many in academia, he had been an
adviser to government in Washington for many years. His crumpled suit,
faded tie, and scuffed brogues marked him as a man careless about his
appearance.
The president lifted her tablet from the desk, before sitting on the
sofa opposite Anderson.
“This could drag us into a war,” she turned to retrieve notes from
the tablet as she spoke. Her anger submerged by the trace of alarm in
her voice. “I apologize for calling you back to Washington at such short
notice, but you had to be here.”
“I understand.” He had been in Asia when he received the
president’s summons to the National Security Council meeting. Anderson
did not understand why it had been necessary, and immediately
regretted saying he did. He wished he had remained silent. The
president had overruled the suggestion of using the virtual conference
facilities. It had been clear she would brook no debate.
“This is an isolated position we find ourselves in.” Anderson had
failed to secure the support of traditional allies during a hectic round of
visits to foreign capitals following his appointment. Some, eager to
encourage the U.S. when protecting their own interests, were unwilling
to confront China on behalf of others; or join openly with the U.S. in
doing so.
“It is, I agree.”
Anderson had many of the classic traits of East Coast liberal
academics, cerebral, courteous and conflict averse. It’s hard to attract
new talent in an administration’s dying days. As many suspected,
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
Anderson was a necessary rather than a preferred choice thrust upon a
reluctant president. She had focused on domestic not foreign issues. She
had relied on the previous incumbent for advice. Anderson’s predecessor
had died unexpectedly of a heart attack; candidates for his replacement
with foreign affairs experience and prepared to take the post had been
few. Nobody expected Anderson to remain in the next administration.
“What’s the latest intelligence?” Anderson had not seen any top
secret reports while traveling back to Washington.
He got no reply.
The president’s ‘Daily Brief’, is a classified summary of events of
note, from around the world, some fact, some rumor. Some facts are
rumors only briefly.
“Beijing is preparing for something. Apart from Japan, we are
isolated. There appears to be no appetite for confronting their
aggression. Others do not see the danger as we do. I worry if this does
turn nasty we might find ourselves bereft of allies.”
Anderson was alive to the possibility and had sought, throughout
his career, to remove such potential flash points.
“We have a problem at the UN and bilaterally. The Europeans,
Russians, Latin Americans, in fact almost everyone, are simply not
prepared to confront China. That’s not to say they approve of their
threats or rhetoric. It’s just that they feel Taiwan, and those tiny
Japanese rocks, cannot justify a war, even if China’s threats are made
real.”
“U.S. credibility demands we support Japan, if not Taiwan, with
military force if necessary. The Republicans are gaining in the polls with
calls for a robust response; Sprague is killing me on this. Trying to avoid
a war is not appeasement!”
The presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday November 2nd
2032, was a matter of weeks away; her outrage heartfelt she was at a
loss as to what she should do.
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
“Madam President, we are not obliged to defend Taiwan. However,
our defense treaty with Japan is clear, ‘the United States is bound to
protect the territories under the administration of Japan’. Japan still
administers the Diaoyu Islands.”
“I know, I know,” the president’s note of irritation unmistakable.
“They regularly deploy maritime surveillance and fisheries law
enforcement ships, to test the Japanese. The pressure on Japan has
been pretty unrelenting frankly, for as long as I can remember.” “Yes I
know and you think their claim to the Senkaku Islands has some
validity?” She spoke in a faintly accusatory tone.
As Professor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
at Harvard University, he had warned for years of the inevitable threat of
conflict over Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands. His advice on Taiwan had
been clear; the U.S. should not go to the island’s defense.
“Your view that the Senkaku Islands should be subject to
international arbitration has always outraged Japan.” The president and
the previous secretary of state had considered Anderson’s advice
dangerous appeasement, an invitation almost.
“Madam President, I believe the United States’ forces in Japan,
mean that we cannot avoid entanglement in Japan’s security. China is
not alone in this dispute with the ability to start a war; Japan can as
well. Their provocative behavior has demonstrated their preparedness to
entrap us in a conflict with China. I advocated we replace permanent
bases with military access agreements or at most temporary rotational
deployments to engender a healthy dose of prudence in Tokyo. Our
failure to act has long since ceded the initiative to them.”
The president’s exasperation was evident in her expression.
Anderson had called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Japan, in
order to end the unconditionality of the commitment that the bases
ensure, if Japan failed to accept international arbitration. A Cassandra
voice, he had been sidelined, even ridiculed, and his warnings ignored.
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
Japan’s unwillingness to move had prevailed. A position, in Anderson’s
view, only made possible because of the defense treaty with the U.S.
“I know you have advocated a policy shift that gives us the
freedom to withhold support,” acknowledged the president. She, like
everyone, had been reluctant to listen believing the status quo could
continue indefinitely. Events were forcing a reappraisal.
Anderson had always referred to the Japanese territory as the
Diaoyu, not Senkaku Islands, a source of considerable irritation to the
Japanese.
“Why has the Chinese claim some validity?” asked the president.
Was it a rhetorical question, she knew his view?
“China’s Ming Dynasty controlled the islands, the Qing Dynasty
placed them under the jurisdiction of Taiwan,” said Anderson as he
paraphrased his well known opinion. “China was forced to cede Taiwan
together with the Diaoyu Islands in May 1895. The Cairo and Potsdam
Declaration called for the return of the islands. Our failure to do so was a
mistake.”
Anderson’s had expressed his views in articles and seminars,
throughout his academic career, long before his appointment in
government.
“Our alliance with Japan is not an asset for American security,
more a liability, likely to expose our weakness,” said Anderson
Anderson was keenly aware China’s economy accounted for a
sizeable proportion of world output. Significantly greater than the U.S.,
which it had overtaken in 2019. The power of Chinese money and
investment flows moved financial markets. Anderson, as ambassador to
the United Nations, and now as secretary of state, was very alive to this
fact, and his views on the consequences were well known. Too few of his
compatriots had recognized the fact and those that had, had resolutely
failed to settle with the implications.
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
Millions of Chinese, over the previous decades, had studied and
worked abroad. These exchanges had seen the largest and fastest
transfer of knowledge and experience in human history. Never before
had a society, so comprehensively, moved from one of the poorest on
earth to one of the richest. China’s educated elite, on its own, was more
numerous than the entire population of most countries.
At the same time as this rise, the United States in contrast had
suffered decades of low growth and investment, compounded by a
decline in educational standards relative to others, not just China. The
United States, suffering from perennial political gridlock in Washington,
no longer represented the beacon of liberty and openness it once had. A
long list of unfortunate exceptionalisms had undermined the legitimacy
of that claim. Remorseless infringement had eroded the unique
inheritance of moral leadership, gifted by the nation’s founding fathers.
“Madam President, Tokyo has consistently taken a much harder
line than we would wish with China, whether over gas drilling, the
median line or ADIZs. Not to mention the controversial Yasukuni Shrine
visits. They have failed to recognize their history.”
Anderson had been an unpopular choice for secretary of state in
Tokyo for expressing these views.
“Well...the CIA and DIA believe things are coming to a head. The
decades long standoff is about to end. The Chinese government is
reaching a crescendo in its announcements. This could not have come at
a worse time. Our ability to deter Beijing or restrain Tokyo is not what it
once was.” The president’s frustration was unmistakable.
“We have dealt with little else at the UN in my time there.”
Recently China had forced the question of Taiwan to the top of the
world’s agenda, in a sudden unexplained move. The General Assembly
had called for peace and for all parties to work together. China’s veto
power ensured no measures passed that frustrated its freedom of action
on Taiwan. The United States would veto anything that handed Taiwan
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014
The Aztlan Protocol
involuntarily to China. Once again, the UN was proving its
ineffectiveness, when the Security Council is deadlocked.
“Our Asian allies are demanding assurances, weapons and
support,” said the president. Her demeanor had become darker.
The administration was under intense pressure from Taiwan and
Japan, who were seeking reassurances. Insisting on concrete signs of
engagement, not just diplomatic, but military.
Anderson had worked tirelessly in talks with all United States allies
in Asia to garner support. He had sought to achieve a compromise with
the Chinese Foreign Minister, Su Shulin in two meetings. He had made a
Chamberlain-esque effort over the previous three weeks to avoid
confrontation and prevent war. He knew the message from Taipei and
Tokyo was as described by the president. As Anderson had long warned,
China would one-day test the United States over Taiwan and the Diaoyu
islands. He had advised the U.S. remove that possibility or be prepared
to confront it. It had not and it was not.
“It’s not just about Taiwan, Senkaku or the East China Sea, from
their perspective, it’s about United States credibility,” said the president.
“Yes, it most certainly is Madam President.” He very much wished
it wasn’t, but it was.
Copyright © Aldéric Au 2014