Orlando MSA Market Overview

Orlando MSA
Market Overview
March 2015
Orlando MSA Market Overview
Overview








Labor Market
Payroll Employment
Commercial Real Estate
Residential Real Estate
Consumer Spending
Business Sentiment
Transportation
Visitor Industry
Labor Market
Unemployment Rate
14
Orlando’s
unemployment rate
has been below the
national rate since
early 2013. However,
gains have largely
flattened in recent
months as improving
job prospects begin to
encourage people to
rejoin or enter the
labor force.
Through December 2014, Seasonally Adjusted
12
Orlando MSA
United States
December 2014
Orlando MSA: 5.4%
United States: 5.6%
10
8
6
4
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Market
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSA
Through February 2015, 12-Month Moving Average
12,000
New claims for
unemployment
insurance have fallen
to pre-recession lows;
total new claimants in
2014 were in line with
those in 2006.
10,000
February 2015: 3,280
2015 YTD: 7,420
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Labor Market
New Job Postings, Orlando MSA
Through February 2015, Y/Y % Change
25%
20%
Labor demand in the
region, measured by
new online job
postings, has
moderated in recent
months. Advertised
(de-duplicated)
postings in 2014
were up 11% over
2013.
February 2015: 23,769 (-9.1%)
2015 YTD: 48,833 (-5.3%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Source: WantedAnalytics
March
April
May
June
July
August September October November December January
February
Payroll Employment
Hundreds
Total Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA
Through December 2014, Seasonally Adjusted
1,200
1,150
Nov ’07 – Jan ’10
105,700 jobs lost
Jan ’10 - Present
146,200 jobs regained
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
In purely employment
terms, Orlando’s job
market has fully
recovered. In early
2014, the region
became the first major
MSA in the state to
regain all jobs lost
during the recession.
Payroll Employment
Change in Payroll Employment
Through December 2014, Y/Y % Change, Seasonally Adjusted
8
Local year-overyear job growth
has exceeded the
nation’s rate for
38 consecutive
months.
4
0
-4
Orlando MSA
United States
-8
2000
2001
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Payroll Employment
Employment Growth, Orlando MSA
Through December 2014, Y/Y % Change, 3-Month Moving Average
Not Seasonally Adjusted
20%
10%
All major sectors
but financial
activities are on a
positive
trajectory.
0%
Retail
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Construction
Business Services
Healthcare
Manufacturing
-10%
-20%
-30%
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Payroll Employment
% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs
December 2013 – December 2014, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Rank
Current year-overyear employment
growth of 4.3% is
second only to Dallas
among the 27 MSAs
with an employment
base of over 1 million
jobs.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
MSA
% Change
1
Dallas, TX
4.4%
2
ORLANDO, FL
4.3%
3
Houston, TX
4.3%
4
San Diego, CA
3.3%
5
Denver, CO
3.3%
6
Seattle, WA
3.2%
7
San Francisco, CA
3.1%
8
Portland, OR
3.1%
9
Miami, FL
3.0%
10
Phoenix, AZ
2.7%
Payroll Employment
Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSA
December 2013 – December 2014, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15,700
16,000
14%
TOTAL GAIN: 47,500
12.3%
12,000
Net Job Gain (left axis)
9,800
12%
10%
Y/Y % Change (right axis)
8%
8,000
7.0%
1,200
4,000
900
0
6,600
6.9%
5.5%
5.5%
3,200
2,800
600
3.3%
6%
4,700
1,800
4%
3.4%
2.8%
2.5%
2.4%
1,100
2%
0.8%
0%
-900
-4,000
-1.3%
Gov.
Oth. Svcs Leis/Hosp. Health Bus. Svcs Fin. Svcs
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inform. Whse/Util.
Retail
Wholesale
Mfg
Const.
-2%
Of the 22 metros in
Florida, Orlando
reported the largest
over-the-year gains in
December in both
absolute (+47,500
jobs) and percentage
(4.3%) terms. The
region’s recovery is
evolving and
employment gains are
now proving more
broad-based, with
almost all major
industries gaining
jobs.
Payroll Employment
Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MD
IMPROVING
EXPANDING
December 2014, Seasonally Adjusted
10
Size of Bubble = Relative
Employment Base
ORLANDO
8
The region is
showing
positive
employment
momentum
entering 2015
and continues
to add jobs.
Fort
Lauderdale
6
3-Month % Change
(annualized)
Miami
4
Melbourne
2
Jacksonville
Tampa
West Palm Beach
0
SLIPPING
CONTRACTING
-2
-2
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
Year-Over-Year % Change
2
4
6
Commercial Real Estate
Office Market, Orlando MSA
Through 4th Quarter 2014
30%
25%
20%
$25
Net Absorption
2011 = 545,623
2012 = 302,110
2013 = -133,255
2014 = 74,000
Total Vacancy (left axis)
Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis)
$23
$21.93 $21.52 19.7%
$20.94
20.1%
19.0%
19.1%
19.4%
19.0%
$20.62
$21
$20.02
14.0%
15%
$19.72
$19.60
$19.62
$19.98
10.9%
$19
10%
7.2%
$17
5%
$15
0%
Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014
Source: CBRE
Orlando’s office
market fundamentals
continue to
strengthen,
punctuated by a lack
of large spaces and
rising rents; however,
a growing trend
toward more dynamic
workspaces and
smaller footprints is
limiting occupancy
gains.
Commercial Real Estate
Industrial Market, Orlando MSA
Through 4th Quarter 2014
25%
Amid a trend of
decreasing vacancy,
positive net
absorption and
rising rates
speculative
development has
returned to the
industrial market –
the story of 2014.
Net Absorption
2011 = -51,626
2012 = 2.9m
2013 = 1.4m
2014 = 1.8m
Total Vacancy (left axis)
Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, left axis)
$6.93
$6.06
20%
$5.72
$5.35
$5.14
15.7%
15%
15.8%
$6
$5.23
15.6%
$8
$4.94
$4.97
$5.21
13.2%
11.5%
11.7%
$4
9.9%
10%
7.1%
7.3%
$2
5%
0%
$0
Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014
Source: CBRE
Residential Real Estate
Y/Y % Change
3-Month Moving
Average
Home Sales vs. Median Home Price, Orlando MSA
Through January 2015
100%
80%
60%
12-Month Moving
Average
4,000
Median Sales Price (left axis)
Homes Sales (right axis)
3,000
40%
20%
2,000
0%
-20%
1,000
-40%
0
-60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Orlando Regional Realtor Association
Home sales have an
opportunity over the
next 12 months to
settle into a pattern of
more traditional
growth as the impact
of both institutional
investment and
distressed sales
wanes.
Residential Real Estate
Housing Permits, Orlando MSA
Units Authorized, Through January 2015
12-Month Moving Average Annualized Rate
30,000
Reports of a
construction bubble
appear premature.
Although both single
and multi-family
permitting are on the
rise, total activity
remains below
historic norms.
25,000
Single-Family Units
Multi-Family Units
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Spending
Orlando MSA Retail Index vs. Florida Consumer Confidence
Through November 2014
180
150
Florida Consumer Confidence (left axis)
Orlando MSA Retail Index (right axis)
170
160
130
Tourism & Recreation: +8.1% YTD
Consumer Non-Durables: +4.6%YTD
Consumer Durables: -0.2% YTD
150
140
110
130
120
90
110
100
70
90
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic & Business Research; Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
Buoyed by strong
tourism gains,
consumer spending in
the region is
outperforming
statewide consumer
confidence.
Business Sentiment
Taxable Sales – Business Investment, Orlando MSA
Through November 2014
Y/Y % Change, 3-Month Moving Average
30%
Renewed confidence
among local business
in the future is also
evident. Local
business investment
(in equipment and
technology, for
example) is up over
9% year-to-date.
2013 YTD: $6.7 billion
2014 YTD: $7.3 billion
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-05
Source: Florida Department of Revenue
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Transportation
Passengers - Orlando International Airport
Through January 2015, Y/Y % Change
10%
Domestic
January 2015: 2.7 million (+8.4%)
2015 YTD: 2.7 million (+8.4%)
TOTAL
January 2015: 3.1 million (+8.8%)
2015 YTD: 3.1 million (+8.8%)
Passenger traffic
through Orlando
International
continues to strength.
International travel hit
a record 4.3 million in
2014, increasing
9.6% from 2013.
8%
International
January 2015: 0.4 million (+11.6%)
2015 YTD: 0.4 million (+11.6%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
February
March
April
Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
May
June
July
August
September October
November December
January
Transportation
Passengers - Orlando Sanford International Airport
Through February 2015, Y/Y % Change
25%
20%
2014 passenger
traffic through
Orlando Sanford
surpassed 2013
levels by 7.5%.
February 2015: 167,314 (+5.7%)
2015 YTD: 334,539 (+7.4%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Source: Sanford Airport Authority
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
January
February
Visitor Industry
Hotel Occupancy vs. Average Daily Rate, Orlando MSA
Through January 2015, Y/Y Change
10
10%
January 2015
Occupancy: 76.1% (+3.9pp)
ADR: $113.90 (+3.5%)
Hotel Occupancy (left axis, pp)
Average Daily Rate (right axis, % change)
8
8%
6
6%
4
4%
2
2%
0
February
Source: Visit Orlando
March
April
May
June
July
August
September October November December January
0%
Aided by both
significant investment
in new attractions and
demand from South
America, growth in
local tourism shows
no sign of abating.
Room demand
continues to outpace
GDP while rates are
nearing pre-recession
levels.
Business Intelligence
[email protected]