Friday, 15th May, 2015
Transcription
Friday, 15th May, 2015
` Friday, 15th May, 2015 Index Levels : Market Trend (Nifty): INDEX SUPPORTS NIFTY (8262.35) 8200 / 8090 / 7960 SENSEX (27324) RESISTANCES Period 8300 / 8360 / Short Term Trend* Current Trend DOWN UP ABOVE 8510 DOWN UP ABOVE 8850 8415 / 8510 27150 / 27000 / 27560 / 27610 / 26750 / 26400 28100 Medium Term* Long Term Trend* #as Imtiaz Merchant’s Best Picks: BHARTI AIRTEL MARUTI SUZUKI PIDILITE INDS. UP DOWN BELOW 7300 *Trend Reversal Point (TRP) is based on close prices. on 15th May 2015 COMPANY NAME Trend Reversal Point (TRP)Nifty close basis SIZE LARGE CAP LARGE CAP LARGE CAP Indices: SECTOR CURRENT PRICE CONSUMER AUTO INDUSTRIALS 392 3670 595 Domestic Indices Close Points % Chg BSE Sensex 27324 117.94 0.43 Nifty 8262.35 38.15 0.46 Dollar/Rupee 63.50 -0.145 -0.23 Note: (Buying should be done from a medium to long term perspective) Market Brief Markets on Friday ended with marginal gains and the week ended on almost flat note. This is the third week that markets have not registered any substantial gain or fall, signaling indecisiveness in the market, this is primarily due to mixed news flows with some positives and few negatives. Poor exports despite weakening rupee are a bad signal but at the same time the imports have also fallen. Rising crude oil prices and increase in domestic petrol and diesel prices are worry-some. With important reform bills still pending in the Parliament is also a cause of concern in the near term. Optimism in the Global markets have given some solace to our market and restricted a complete sell-off. Indian equity markets are very critically poised and have been trading in a tight range between 8000 and 8360 on the Nifty. Further news flows will determine the direction for the market, although, short and the medium term trend are down, hence, bad or negative news flows will bring down the markets sharply. In terms of technical level, a close below 8000 will prove very fatal for the market and it will witness a prolong correction and eventually Nifty could test 7400 – 7500, which is also justified from price to earning perspective. However, in event of positive news flows, if the market breaks out 8360, it will witness a swift throwback rally that would initially test 8500. Investors are advised to exercise caution and as suggested earlier, exit from under performing stocks and remain at-least 20 to 25 percent in cash. Deep corrections should certainly be used for buying since the bull market is still intact, it is only the short and the intermediate trend which is down, and is instrumental in keeping the markets jittery and volatile. ` Advance/ Decline BSE Advance NSE Decline AD Ratio UnChanged 1459 1255 1.16:1 103 779 620 1.26:1 80 Global Indices Close Points % Chg Dow Jones* 18272.56 20.32 0.11 NASDAQ* 5048.29 -2.51 -0.05 FTSE* 6960.49 -12.55 -0.18 Nikkei 19732.92 162.68 0.83 Hang Sang 27822.28 535.73 1.96 Straits Times 3463.10 7.32 0.21 #as on 15th May 2015 Institutional Activity FII* Buy Sell 3595.53 3633.84 Net (Cr) -38.31 DII** 1799.79 1236.19 563.6 FII* Foreign institutional investor DII** Domestic institutional invest News: India at 100 on human capital index, Finland leads pack India has been ranked at a lowly 100 position on the global Human Capital Index, which measures countries on development and deployment of human capital. Finland has topped the 124-nation list. India is ranked lower than all its BRICS peers — Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa — and smaller neighbours like Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Bangladesh. But Pakistan follows at 113. In the top 10 of the list, compiled by the World Economic Forum, Finland is followed by Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Belgium. WEF said the list has been compiled on the basis of 46 indicators about "how well countries are developing and deploying their human capital, focusing on education, skills and employment". "It aims to understand whether countries are wasting or leveraging their human potential," it added. On India, the report said that although the educational attainment has improved markedly over different age groups, its youth literacy rate is still only 90%, well behind the rates of other emerging economies. "India also ranks poorly on labour force participation rate due to its large informal sector," WEF added. The major countries ranked above India include France (14th rank), the US (17), the UK (19) and Germany (22). Among BRICS nations, Russia comes on the top at 26th position, followed by China (64), Brazil (78) and South Africa (92). The countries with a better score than India also include Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Chile, the Philippines, Serbia, Mongolia, the UAE, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Mauritius, Barbados, Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Cambodia and Tunisia. WEF said 14 countries have reached 80% human capital optimisation while 38 score 70-80%. NEWS PERSPECTIVE SEBI permits Madras Stock Exchange to exit business Market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has passed an order providing exit to the 78-year old Madras Stock Exchange Limited (MSE). The exchange will be 14th Stock Exchange to exit under SEBI's exit policy, which came into effect in May 2012. The policy mandated Regional Stock Exchange (RSEs) a minimum net-worth of Rs 100 crore and an annual trading of Rs 1,000 crore and gave two years to comply or exit the business. In May 2014, MSE made a request to SEBI for its exit as a stock exchange after an Extra Ordinary General Meeting of the shareholders, a special resolution was passed for voluntary exit. On Thursday, Rajeev Kumar Agarwal, whole time member, SEBI, passed an Order, in which he stated that from the valuation report and undertaking of MSE, it is observed that all the known liabilities have been brought out and there is no other future liability that is known as on date. MSE is one of the oldest RSEs in India and has been one of the largest in terms of cash volumes in the 90s. According to the Section 13 arrangement with National Stock Exchange (NSE), the collective turnover of the MSE listed companies which are trading at NSE platform, in 2012-13 was at around Rs 8,000 crore and this was expected to increase to Rs 19,907 crore in 2017-18. Industry experts questioned about the future of small investors. They noted there were 250 companies, which are fully compliant and mostly MSMEs, while half of them have listed in NSEs and other exchanges, the balance didn't shift leaving small time investors, who have invested a few thousand rupees and to around 50 brokers who depend on this exchange for survival & livelihood?.Since these companies have become unlisted there is no reverse book building process and prices of these companies have been quoted much below the price. Taking advantage of the situation a private agency sent out a letter to the shareholders. One such letter, to buy shares of a Chennai based company is is available with Business Standard, stating that the company "is ready to make a best offer if the shareholder is wish to sell and please to make a best offer, if you wish to sell your holdings. We will send you payment by person. Kindly note that this offer is for a limited quantity of shares required by us. You therefore request to respond immediately to take our attractive offer and payment terms". Insiders at MSE said prospect for the Exchange to survive was "very good" but SEBI's norms has "forced" MSE to exit. He claimed MSE can do trading volumes of around Rs 1,000 crore per annum, if the trading platform would have gone on stream. Earlier senior officials from MSE said three major challenges it faces --upgradation of technology which is getting outdated fast, marketing and expansion and to meet SEBI's mandate. To meet these challenges, the Exchange can raise around Rs 100 crore from a Private Equity or through a private placement. MSE had an in-principle tie-up with NSCCL for clearing and trading operations and EOI received from companies listed with MSE to trade on the new platform. In the last five years, collective trading volume of the 60 companies, which are listed in MSE and were allowed to trade on NSE, estimated to be around Rs 25,000 crore. ` ITE – 35* Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers Stocks % Stocks % SIEMENS 56.37 HERO MOTOCO. 11.99 LUPIN 37.25 ONGC 10.97 SUN PHARMA 33.79 BAJAJ AUTO 9.97 BHARAT FORGE 33.09 GAIL (INDIA) 7.18 # % = 3 months Return ITE – 211** Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers % Stocks Stocks % Risa Internatio. CCL Inter Tide Water Oil HFCL 47 34 27 26 Dynamatic Tech. Tata Elxsi Wockhardt SSPDL Ltd 95 94 85 76 Hitachi Home 62 Apollo Tyres 25 Hexaware Tech. 56 Gati 23 Siemens 54 V-Guard Inds. 21 Century Ply. 48 Atul 19 PC Jeweller 47 Petronet LNG 18 Gillette India 46 Guj Gas Company 18 # % = 3 months Return BSE Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers Stocks % Stocks JUBLFOOD 11.36 HDIL -7.12 ALOKTEXT 11.15 PUNJLLOYD -6.20 NATCOPHARMA 8.61 NCC -5.25 SCI 8.22 EDELWEISS -4.69 #as on 15th May 2015 % ` Rate-cut hopes drive markets higher; Nifty ends above 8,250 Benchmark indices finished higher on hopes of economic reforms as the government defends the key reforms coupled with an anticipated rate-cut in the view of the softening inflation data. The 30-share Sensex gained 118 points to end at 27,394 and the 50-share Nifty climbed 38 points to finish at 8,262. Market breadth on the BSE ended positive with 1,455 advances against 1,233 declines. Going ahead, analysts expect this range-bound movement in markets to end over the next few sessions. "For past two weeks, the Nifty has been trading roughly in a broader range of 8,100-8,300 while stocks are witnessing erratic moves in both directions due to prevailing earning season. We expect this prevailing uncertainty to end in the coming sessions with either side decisive break in the index. Meanwhile, uphold stock specific trading approach and keep a balanced trading portfolio," said Jayant Manglik, President-retail distribution, Religare Securities in a post market note. “Markets ended the day and the week on a positive note. Bargain hunting at lower levels helped markets gain about 1% for the week. On-schedule debt repayment by Greece eased related concerns which also led to cooling of US bond yields, which had hit highs early in the week. Delay in passing the GST Bill had an impact on the markets, we believe. Going ahead, remaining quarterly results, distribution of monsoon and pick-up in investment activity, if any, will dictate market sentiment and so will expectations of a US rate hike,” points out Dipen Shah, Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities. RUPEE - The rupee is trading strong by five paise at 63.60 against the dollar tracking firm local equities amid sustained dollar selling by exporters. KEY STOCKS - On the sectoral front, BSE FMCG, Healthcare, IT, Consumer Durables, Teck indices gained up to 1%. However, BSE Metal, Realty and Power indices lost sheen in today’s session and ended lower. Rate sensitive stocks gained in today’s session as sustained fall in consumer inflation prices gave boost to hopes of a ratecut by Reserve Bank of India. SBI, Axis Bank, M&M, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and HDFC twins ended higher up to 2.5%. Shares of Tata Steel, Indian multinational steel-making company headquartered in Mumbai, lost 0.5% as the company anticipates to take a non-cash write-down of the goodwill and assets in the consolidated financial results in the fourth quarter for the year ended March 31,2015 of nearly Rs 6,500 crores, mostly associated to the loss-making long products business in UK. ` Shares of Bharti Airtel, India’s largest telecom services provider, has gained 1.5% after it decided to commence 4G services trials for its existing customers located in Chennai, according to media reports. Vedanta Resources reported a significantly wider full-year net loss due to a hefty writedown of its oil and gas business due to tumbling oil prices. Reacting to the news, Vedanta lost nearly 2%. Oil exploration major RIL was down 0.7% on decline in crude oil prices. However, GIL which gained yesterday on signing MoU with Dhamra LNG Terminal (DLTPL) has dipped today on profit taking and shed 0.5 %. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday approved the disinvestment department’s plan to sell stakes in Indian Oil and NTPC as part of the Centre’s Rs 41,000-crore divestment target for public sector undertakings. NTPC dropped over 2%. Ranbaxy Laboratories is accused in a lawsuit of conspiring with a web of lawyers and consultants to manipulate the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and block competition in the generic drug business. Sun Pharma which has acquired Ranbaxy ended with marginal gains. BROADER MARKETS - In the broader market, both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were up nearly 0.4% and 0.6% each. Suzlon Energy moved higher by 6% after the wind turbine maker said that has bagged an order to set up a 90 mw wind project from ReNew Power, for an undisclosed amount. Shares of Strides Arcolab were trading higher by 4% after a pharmaceutical company said that it has received approval from the US health regulator for Lamivudine and Zidovudine tablets. Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) gained 5% after reporting a 12.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in standalone net profit at Rs 49.30 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 (Q4). Jubilant FoodWorks rallied 11% after reporting 6.6% growth in same-store growth (SSG) for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 (Q4). The company, which operates Domino's Pizza and Dunkin Donuts chains, had recorded 3.4% negative SSG growth in the year-ago quarter. Shares of Sequent Scientific climbed over 5% after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that foreign investors can now invest up to 32.46% of the paid up capital of the pharmaceutical company. ` ‘Markets are directionally efficient, meaning that today’s price reflects what is currently known about the future direction of the markets.’ *ITE-35 index is a well diversified Index with 35 stocks large size companies developed by Pragmatic Wealth Management research group. The ITE-35 Index commensurate with the Sensex & Nifty. ** ITE -211 is a broad based index constitutes 211 companies from large, mid and small size companies spread over 9 ethically permissible sectors. This is parent (macro Index) and it commensurate with BSE- 500 and S&P CNX 500 Caution: We do not encourage intraday trading and Derivative trading. Stocks should only be sold upon procuring the delivery. Disclaimer: The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The above recommendations and Newsletters are based on the theory of Technical & Fundamental Analysis Combined. © Pragmatic Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd.