2015 Automotive R&D Event
Transcription
2015 Automotive R&D Event
2015 Automotive R&D Event Brian Aranha, VP Automotive Worldwide, London June 2015 Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forwardlooking statements may be identified by the words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2014 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. 1 Agenda • The market opportunity • Challenges • Solutions • Industry leadership 2 Key automotive industry requirements • Global platforms: Carmakers demand that the same products be delivered to their production facilities worldwide, to support global platforms that are designed centrally. The percentage of vehicles built on global platforms will increase from 46% in 2014 to 63% in 2020 • Regulation: Shift in product needs to meet regulatory targets for fuel economy as well as passenger safety during crash events • ArcelorMittal offers the specific solutions to address these challenges • ArcelorMittal maintains both its geographical and its technological leadership in the automotive market ArcelorMittal well positioned to meet automotive industry requirements 3 Automotive growth in developed world USA / Canada and EU28 + Turkey vehicles production units • USA and Canadian automotive 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 production forecast to stabilize at 18,056 ~14m units level 13,818 • EU28 and Turkey recovery ongoing. Expected to return to 2007 level in 2017 with further EU28 & Turkey USA & Canada growth potential beyond 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Developed market vehicle production rates increasing; recovery ongoing 4 Automotive emerging market growth China vehicle production (‘000s) 40,000 • China production to grow steadily by +42% 30,000 • India production to almost double by 20,000 22,610 2022 (from 3.6mvh in 2014 to 6.9mvh in 10,000 0 2022) 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Brazil, India, Russia & Mexico vehicle production (‘000’s) 8,000 6,000 +10m units to ~32mvh in 2022 Russia Brazil India Mexico +93% 4,000 • Mexico production is expected to increase by >50% between 2014-2022 will supply new demand to USA and Canada • Brazil and Russia expected to need 2,000 time to recover and reach 2013 level 0 (>2020) 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Strong growth expected in China, Mexico and India Source: IHS 5 Rigorous fuel economy standards 2012-2025 US CAFE* rules (MPG) Global CO2 (or equivalent) regulation trends 70 60 50 Cars Truck Average 40 62.1 54.5 41.5 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • 2012-2025 rules are footprint driven – each vehicle has a mandated fuel economy standard based on track x wheelbase • 2025 CAFE for Light Vehicle USA: 54.5 MPG based on projected 2025 fleet by EPA/NHTSA • Similar trend for passenger safety in a crash event Fuel economy targets to be achieved whilst improving crash performance standards * CAFE refers to Corporate Average Fuel Economy 6 EU and US CO2 emission targets Europe: On track to achieve the regulatory CO2 emissions targets EU and US emissions performance 2007-2025 C02 (g/km) 250 200 150 Historical performance 2007 (210) 2007 (159) • EU regulation of new car fleet average CO2 emissions of 130 g/km by 2015 has been met in 2014 with an average of 123 g/km thanks to rapid progress in recent years Targets 2015 (165) 2014 (165) 2014 (123) 100 • Target of 95 g/km confirmed for 2021. The next targets are still under discussion 2021 (124) 2015 (130) US: 2025 target is more challenging 2021 (95) 2025 (97*) * 97 g/km of CO2 = 54.5 mpg 50 Europe USA Regulatory targets 10 kg of weight saved reduces ~1g of CO2 per km** • The 2014 US new car fleet met the 2015 target (165 g/km) but require further improvements to meet the 2025 target of 97 g/km • The US fleet is composed of larger cars making the CO2 target much harder to meet By 2015 fuel economy rates have met but there is a greater challenge ahead * Average emissions of new passenger cars sold in these years; ** Market consensus ( eg PSA, Renault, McKinsey) ; Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E), EPA, ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy analysis, Automotive Worldwide update 7 Technologies to meet US 2025 fuel economy mandate US fuel economy breakdown (MPG) Fuel Economy (MPG) 60 54.5 MPG 50 40 30 25 MPG 20 10 8% 15% 7% 58% 12% 0 • A range of technologies are being implemented by automakers to reach the 54.5 MPG target • Power train, electrification, aerodynamics and rolling resistance are the largest contributors • Weight reduction is necessary to close the gap and compensate for under achievement by other technologies 20% BIW weight reduction ie required to meet the 54.5 MPG target Source: NHTSA Volpe Transportation Research Center CAFE Compliance and Effects Model 8 ArcelorMittal automotive strategy Four key pillars of ArcelorMittal automotive strategy: New products and solutions • Develop new products and solutions to meet OEM targets for weight reduction and crash performance Downstream network • Pursue downstream technology solutions through partnerships and wholly owned subsidiaries. Quality and service leadership • Make existing products and solutions available wherever we have automotive production facilities Geographical expansion • Expand our geographic footprint into emerging markets Four pillars to answer the key challenges and capture opportunities 9 Steel meets weight reduction needs • ArcelorMittal has demonstrated that 20% BIW weight reduction needed to achieve 54.5 MPG can be achieved with existing steel grades with further potential from new grades S-in motion® CSegment Vehicle S-in motion® Pickup Truck S-in motion® NA DSegment Vehicle Achieved 20% BIW weight reduction from 2009 baseline with emerging grades Achieved 23% BIW weight reduction from 2013 baseline with commercialavailable grades Targets 24% BIW weight reduction from 2015 baseline with commerciallyavailable grades Results in July, 2015 Steel can provide the required 20% BIW weight reduction needed to achieve 54.5 MPG 10 Further weight reduction potential • Due to very aggressive and weight reduction driven product development, ArcelorMittal keeps enhancing: • Our portfolio of products for cold stamping with developments like Fortiform®, our family of 3rd Generation AHSS • Our portfolio of products for hot stamping with Usibor® 2000 and Ductibor® 1000 Further potential weight savings with new products (%) Potential Current 20 C Segment (2009 base) 23 24 Potential weight savings of additional 3% over the next 2 years across our solutions Pick up truck North America (2013 base) D segment (2015 base) New product developments to offer an additional 3% weight reduction in next 2 Years 11 What are laser welded blanks? • Laser welded blanks are two or more flat steel sheets welded together by a laser. These sheets can: • Have different thicknesses • Be made of different alloys • Have different coatings • Using laser welded blanks, automotive engineers can design parts with the necessary properties where they are needed, optimizing weight and safety Laser Pressure 1 part: - 2 different thicknesses - 2 different alloys Laser welding Stamping Video Applying the necessary properties where they are needed 12 Combining LWB and hot stamping for maximum weight saving B-pillar inner Seat cross member B-pillar Rear side member A-pillar Shotgun Front side member Door ring Front bumper beam Tunnel Front rail extension Ductibor Usibor ® ® Optimum balance between lightweight and strength thanks to Laser Welded Blanks 13 ArcelorMittal Tailored Blanks footprint Existing Plants In project India North America Concord, Ontario Pioneer, Ohio Murfeesboro, Tennessee Delaco Tonawanda, NY (JV) Delaco Dearborn, Michigan (JV) Silao, Mexico San Luis Potosi, Mexico Europe Birmingham UK Gent Belgium Bremen Germany Lorraine France Neuwied Germany Senica Slovakia Liege Belgium Zaragoza Spain Genk Belgium Orhangazi Tk (JV) Arcelor Neel Tailored Blank Chennai (JV) Arcelor Neel Tailored Blank Pune (JV) China Shanghai Baosteel & Arcelor Tailor Metal (JV) Australia ArcelorMittal Tailored Blanks Adelaide Global footprint and expanding 14 Technology leadership ranking by customers Technology • In NAFTA, 11 out of 12 customers ranked ArcelorMittal the #1 supplier on Technology Leadership • In Europe, 11 out of 14 customers considers ArcelorMittal the technology leader of the steel industry Industry awards ArcelorMittal proudly accepted General Motors’ Supplier of the Year award for the second consecutive year at the automaker’s 23th annual ceremony held in Detroit on March 5, 2015. The Supplier of the Year award was given to just 78, or less than one percent, of GM’s global suppliers. Majority of OEMs in Europe and NAFTA rank ArcelorMittal #1 in Technology 15 ArcelorMittal preferred AHSS supplier AHSS share of total steel demand AHSS evolution ArcelorMittal market shares 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% NAFTA 15% 10% 5% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Ducker • ArcelorMittal is maintaining or even increasing our overall market share in Europe and NAFTA • AHSS share of the total steel market is increasing, exactly where our share is higher • As the technology requirements to develop and produce new AHSS like Fortiform® are higher, our share on these products can further grow Europe Source: Regional ArcelorMittal Marketing intelligence ArcelorMittal increased AHSS capturing market share 16 Global presence and reach Automotive production facilities Alliances & JV Commercial Teams Vehicle production 2014 > 20 M veh > 15 M veh & < 20 M veh > 10 M veh & < 15 M veh > 5 M veh & < 10 M veh > 2.5 M veh & < 5 M veh > 1 M veh & < 2.5 M veh < 1 M veh ArcelorMittal supplying globally and increasing emerging region exposure Source: LMC figures for Western & Eastern Europe & Russia; IHS figures for all other regions. Personal cars and light commercial vehicles < 6 t 17 Right products to right markets HDG capacity increase to produce Usibor® Usibor® production facilities (2012 and 2016) +136% Dudelange Mouzon Florange Indiana Harbor Sagunto 2012 AM/NS Calvert 2016 VAMA Vehicle production 2014 > 20 M veh > 15 M veh & < 20 M veh > 10 M veh & < 15 M veh > 5 M veh & < 10 M veh > 2.5 M veh & < 5 M veh > 1 M veh & < 2.5 M veh Vega < 1 M veh Existing facility in 2012 Newly added facility ArcelorMittal supplying to meet local customer needs Source: LMC forecasts (01-2013) for Western & E. Europe & Russia; IHS forecasts (01-2013) for all other regions. Personal cars and light commercial vehicles < 6 t 18 NAFTA automotive landscape • • • • For the first time since the great recession of 2008, the US Midwest production is not growing Decline in Canada is much higher than the past several years Southern US continues to grow Mexico’s growth rate is more than double the rate of the past 5 years Forecast Canadian, US, and Mexican automotive production change 2014 to 2019F 2019 2014 Canada -485,000 units 19% 10% 14% 26% US Midwest -7,800 units Southern US +454,000 units Mexico +1,343,000 units AM/NS Calvert 21% 43% 22% 46% Canada US Midwest US South Mexico AM/NS Calvert ideally located to serve the growing markets 19 AM/NS Calvert • World’s most advanced steel finishing facility. The largest newly constructed facility in the U.S. in 40 years • Well positioned to supply growing demand in the SE US and Mexico with steels grades that meet 2025 safety and fuel economy targets • Powerful, state-of-the-art hot-strip mill, well suited to supply fast-growing demand for advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) • 5.3 million metric ton capacity with 1,650 team members Strengthens existing auto steel franchise and ability to supply energy market 20 AM/NS Calvert • AM/NS Calvert is now integrated with ramp up to full production and target market position on track • Organization readiness • Prepared for ramp up to full capacity • ISO9001, ISO14001, ISO17025, TS16949 certification in process • Technology partnership with NSSMC • Sales team integrated ArcelorMittal as managing partner 100% responsible for marketing • Market penetration • Approved on 157 of 182 automotive qualification packages. • Further 20 estimated in 2015 • Pipe & Tube customers qualified/business established • Two steel service centres on-site Production capacity Hot strip mill: 5.3Mt Cold rolling mill CPL: 1.1Mt PLTCM: 2.5Mt Hot dip galvanizing Line #1: 0.5Mt Line #2: 0.6Mt (CAL) Line #3: 0.5Mt Line #4: 0.5Mt Continuous hot-dip galvanising line On track for ramp up with full benefits to accrue in 2016/2017 CPL – Continuous Pickling Line; PLTCM - pickling line-tandem cold mill 21 VAMA greenfield JV facility in China • 1.5 MT state-of-the-art production facilities • Well-positioned to serve growing automotive market • Central office in Changsha with satellite offices in proximity to decision making centers of VAMA’s customers • VAMA will represent 10% of Chinese automotive steel market VAMA: Valin ArcelorMittal Automotive target areas and markets FAW-VW & BMW Daimler & Nissan Beijing Auto steel consumption accessible to VAMA target products (market size in MT) +29% 17 20 Geely, VW, GM, KIA, SAIC & Chery BYD, Changan, Suzuki, CFMA & FAW-VW Shanghai 22 Loudi Changfeng, Fiat, DPCA, Dongfeng, VAMA Honda, JMC & Suzuki SAIC, Toyota, GM, Honda, Nissan & BYD 2014 2016F Guangzhou 2018F •VAMA well positioned to supply growing Chinese auto market (+35% 2014-2020) BYD: Build Your Dreams; CFMA: Changan Ford Mazda Automobile; SAIC: Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation; JMC: Jiangling Motors Corporation 22 VAMA: Leveraging ArcelorMittal Technology Auto finishing facility fully supported with ArcelorMittal technology VAMA PLTCM Valin – Liangang Hot Strip Mill Hot rolled coil 1.0M tonnes • • ArcelorMittal technology transfer team permanently detached to Lianyuan Steel: Process: Development of automotive grades to supply substrate to VAMA and coils to wheels market JV Shareholder structure: ArcelorMittal owns 49% direct 51% Valin Steel 0.5M tonnes 0.5M tonnes ArcelorMittal Chief Technology Officer team dedicated to Mixed CAL CGL • DesignVAMA production assets & select VAMA equipment suppliers • Develop metallurgical routes for VAMA scope • Deploy automotive specific process know how ArcelorMittal production technology to be deployed through VAMA 23 India - potential JV with SAIL India auto production 2007-2022 (kveh) +93% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 • MoU signed with SAIL on 22nd May to study feasibility of creating JV for constructing CR and HDG automotive steel production facility in one of the major auto clusters in India • India forecast to become the 4th largest automobile manufacturing nation by 2020, growing from ~3.5m units to over 7m units • India is expected to grow as a hub for automobile export manufacturing facilities to cater to the international market • Establishing an automotive focussed production presence in India is a natural progression in executing our global automotive strategy India auto steel consumption ktpa 2014-2021 +2,200 Organic growth Domestic Imports 4,900 2,700 1,900 800 2,200 2014 2021 1,900 800 2014: 3.7m passenger cars; 2.6Mtpa 2021F: 6.6m passenger cars; 4.8Mtpa ArcelorMittal technology to be delivered through local JV partner 24 Capital investments to support existing and new products Selection of further investments: • $15 million at ArcelorMittal Vega to locally produce Usibor® • Additional upgrades at AM/NS Calvert to supply the latest AHSS • €140 million investment at ArcelorMittal Gent to enable production of Fortiform®, our family of 3rd Generation AHSS • €9 million investment at ArcelorMittal Sagunto to enable production of Usibor® Alusi and increase the group capacity by adapting the hot dip galvanizing line in order to better serve the Southern European automotive market. • Several investments at AMTB to support the development of Laser Welded Blanks as a mainstream light-weighting solution Capital investments to fund franchise business 25 Current and future material mix • This trend should remain progressive and light: – Carbon fibre not expected to be high relevance before 2030 – Aluminium still too expensive to play a major role – Steel remains the most recyclable metal (100% recyclable / environmentally friendly) – High strength steel to replace mild steel – New steel material (ultra high strength) has potential to substitute aluminium parts Steel to remain material of choice with greater share of AHSS 26 Summary Regulatory targets and trend towards global platforms created needs for the automotive industry • Continuous improvements to simultaneously meet fuel efficiency and safety targets • Procure same materials across different regions ArcelorMittal is investing to deliver responses to these needs • S-in motion® Pickup Truck demonstrated that a body-in-white reduction of 23% can be achieved via our current portfolio of steel products and solutions • Further weight reduction will be achieved with our upcoming steel grades • Enlarging industrial presence with VAMA, AM/NS Calvert and the potential JV with SAIL in India ArcelorMittal has products and market position to capture industry growth Due to an unmatched strength, lightweight potential and global footprint, ArcelorMittal and steel will remain the choice of the automotive industry 27 New ArcelorMittal IR app and contacts Daniel Fairclough – Global Head Investor Relations [email protected] +44 207 543 1105 Hetal Patel – UK/European Investor Relations [email protected] +44 207 543 1128 Valérie Mella – European/Retail Investor Relations [email protected] +44 207 543 1156 Maureen Baker – Fixed Income/Debt Investor Relations [email protected] +33 1 71 92 10 26 Lisa Fortuna – US Investor Relations [email protected] +312 899 3985 We have released a new ArcelorMittal investor relations app available for download on IOS or android devices