brief analytical report

The Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA). April 9, 2015 2015 Presidential Election Outcome: analyses & implications
Preamble March 28th through April 1st 2015 marked another turn in Nigeria’s democratic history as registered voters took to the polls to elect the next set of leaders into the Presidential and National Assembly positions. The elections, conducted in the thirty six states of the country and the Federal Capital Territory, witnessed the emergence of the opposition party – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari -­‐ as the new president of the Federal Republic. This outcome was also the first time an opposition party would unseat the ruling People Democratic Party (PDP) since Nigeria’s transition into civil rule in 1999. Analysis of Result Of the 67,422,005 registered voters in Nigeria, only 31,746,490 (47.08%) were accredited for the 2015 presidential election; 29,432,083 of votes were cast, of which 28,587,564 (~97%) were valid. The 2015 presidential election and the eventual outcome were in many ways different from other elections, especially the 2011 edition: •
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14 political parties (20 in 2011) contested the election. More votes were cast in 2011 (38,209,978) than in 2015 (28,587,564) by a ~25% difference. The incumbent lost to the opposition: 45% (12,853,162) to 54% (15,427,943) The incumbency lost by a relatively wide margin of the total votes cast for the opposition, about 20% (2,574,781) The opposition won more states (21) and had at least 25% of votes in more states (26 to 25) The PDP lost approximately 43% of the votes it once controlled (22,495,187 in 2011 to 12,853,162 in 2015). In contrast, the APC gained approximately 26% more votes between 2011 and 2015 (12,214,853 to 15,424,921) The PDP won 31 states in 2011, but could only muster 16 states in 2015 •
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Party APC PDP APA ACPN CPP AD ADC PPN NCP AA UPP KOWA UDP HOPE Votes received % of votes received 15,424,921 12,853,162 53,537 40,311 36,300 30,673 29,666 24,475 24,455 22,125 18,220 13,076 9,208 7,435 Source: http://www.inecnigeria.org/?page_id=31 1 The PDP not only lost 15 of the 31 states, it also lost some percentage of votes in the states it retained There was an increase in the number of total votes cast for the two main parties; 98.92% in 2015 compared to 90.84 in 2011 -­‐ marginal parties saw their support eroded. 53.96 44.96 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.03 The Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA). April 9, 2015 Voter turnout for the 2015 presidential election (compared to the 2011 outcome) declined in all the geopolitical zones, except in the South-­‐West where it appreciated by approximately 8% (32% to ~40%). The voter turnout (number of total votes cast divided by number of registered voters) was 43.65% -­‐ the lowest in Nigeria’s democratic history since 1999 (52% in 1999, 69% in 2003, 57% in 2007 and 54% in 2011). Nigeria presidential election: regional voter turnout 2015 2011 approximate North Central 43.47 49 North East 45.22 56 North West 55.09 56 South East 40.52 63 South-­‐South 57.81 62 South West 40.26 32 Observation of the state by state breakdown of the low voter turnout showed that only 13 states had 50% or more. About all the Northern states, including those where there have been issues of insurgency, had turnout of at least 40% (except Borno with 30%). Lagos, a state considered relatively peaceful, with little or no security breach especially as regards pre/post election violence; had the lowest turnout (29%). In contrast, Rivers state had the highest turnout (71%), although there were pockets of complaints (by opposition parties) of electoral malpractices thus requesting for a cancellation. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted an inquiry, and decided to uphold the result of the election as valid (inec website). Table showing approximated voter turnout by % in the 36 states & the FCT Lagos 29 APC Gombe 46 APC Borno 30 APC Taraba 46 PDP Abia 33 PDP Adamawa 47 APC Ogun 35 APC Niger 47 APC Kogi 35 APC Yobe 48 APC Edo 36 PDP Osun 50 APC Abuja 39 PDP Kaduna 52 APC Anambra 39 PDP Bauchi 53 APC Ebonyi 40 PDP Kebbi 54 APC Benue 40 APC Plateau 54 PDP Ondo 41 APC Katsina 56 APC Kwara 41 APC Zamfara 59 APC Cross 44 PDP Sokoto 59 APC River Kano 44 APC Jigawa 64 APC Enugu 45 PDP Bayelsa 64 PDP Ekiti 45 PDP Akwa 65 PDP Ibom Oyo 46 APC Delta 66 PDP Imo 46 PDP Rivers 71 PDP Nasarawa 46 PDP PDP and the APC. The South-­‐East had the least diversified votes as they voted the least for the APC candidate with less than 20,000 votes in 4 out of 5 states. The South-­‐West had the most even distribution of votes between the parties. The aggregate votes from the North West exceeded the votes from the South-­‐East and the South-­‐South. The South-­‐South had the most uneven votes between both candidates of the Low turnout may be attributed to various factors. First, it might be an indication that previous election results were inflated. Second, there was a heightened sense of insecurity among Nigerians, with causes 2 The Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA). April 9, 2015 such as the Boko Haram insurgency in the North, the possibility of the incumbent not willing to accept the outcome of the election should it not be in its favour, the effects of the election postponement, etc. Also, there is the perception that ‘votes do not count’ and that the outcomes have been pre-­‐decided by an elite minority. Map showing flashpoints of possible violence According to the 2015 General Election Security threat assessment (website), 11 of the 37 states were in high possibility of violence (indicated in red on the map), 20 states plus the FCT were in possibility of escalating tensions and conflict potentiality (in amber), while only 5 states (in green) were relatively peaceful. Some of the indicators of violence include hate and inciting speech, communal violence and other localized conflict, militant groups, vigilantes and youth thuggery, performance of security institutions, and fear of electoral manipulation. Source: CLEEN Foundation, February 2015 Prediction of the poll In a poll leading up to the presidential election, the Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA), a non-­‐
governmental and non-­‐partisan organisation, conducted an independent public opinion poll predicting a win for the opposition APC party in Lagos (cppa website). Using a rigorous methodology, with an error margin of 3.2%, the poll predicted what turned out to be true. 54% of Nigerians in Lagos had said the APC would win the 2015 presidential election, and 58% (±3.2) of Nigerians in Lagos had said they would vote for General Muhammadu Buhari. The election in Lagos The election outcome in Lagos was a close call. Again, the APC won Lagos with 54.89% of the valid vote cast; a result that also is consistent with the outcome of the CPPA opinion poll. APC 792,460 (54.89%) PDP 632,327 (43.80%) REG VOTERS 5,827,846 ACCREDITED 1,678,754 Source: http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-­‐content/uploads/2015/04/summary-­‐of-­‐results.pdf 3 VALID VOTE 1,443,686 The Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA). April 9, 2015 As predicted by the CPPA’s poll, the PDP won Ajeromi/Ifelodun, Amuwo-­‐Odofin (undecided block), Ojo (they were favoured to win this LGA, as they polled 50% of the possible vote) and Surulere (they were also favoured to win this LGA, as the vote margin was by 4 points more than the APC). CPPA poll prediction (February 2015) Agege 2015 Presidential outcome (March 2015) APC/PDP 54,611 25,596 CPPA poll prediction (February 2015) Kosofe Ajeromi/Ifelodun 37,716 57,494 Lagos Island 33,242 13,002 Alimosho 86,897 59,316 Lagos Mainland 33,898 23,857 Amuwo-­‐Odofin 24,612 39,291 Mushin 60,778 33,377 Apapa 23,818 17,328 Ojo 26,117 40,685 Eti-­‐Osa 28,188 21,480 Oshodi-­‐Isolo 42,585 48,878 Ibeju-­‐Lekki 12,016 10,812 Somolu 45,297 32,501 Ifako-­‐Ijaye 50,607 22,980 Surulere 52,798 58,649 Ikeja 29,893 23,836 Badagry 24,137 23,296 Ikorodu 49,901 29,604 19,179 16,400 Epe Blue: APC likely win. Red: PDP likely win. Amber: either party wins 2015 Presidential outcome (March 2015) APC/PDP 56,170 33,945 Implications/Projections The overall outcome of the elections will definitely have it impacts at both the federal and state levels. At the presidential level, some legislative configuration implications include: o
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With the governing party having no Senate representative from the South-­‐East, the Senate President will not emerge from these regions. David Mark, Senate President for two terms with a fifth appearance in the Senate will become a floor member of the Senate But for one seat to the Labour party, only two parties (APC and PDP) constitute the Senate (The Punch; April 1, 2015) Non-­‐indigenes vote block: A key feature that was obvious in the Lagos election was the non-­‐
indigenes vote block. Noticeable clustering of non-­‐lagosians in specific local government areas of Lagos and their demographic domination of those areas has an effect on the outcome of election in the state. For instance, three non-­‐indigence winners of Federal House of Representative seats are from areas dominated by citizens from South Eastern Nigeria -­‐ a test in the history of elections in Nigeria. The population ratio breakdown of indigene/non-­‐indigene in the state also has an effect on the election turnout. ‘Rigging’ – card reader effect, roles of M&E: The events during the presidential elections showed flashpoints that the electoral monitoring processes in Nigeria could do with some improvement, a major responsibility for the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) for the governorship and future elections. 4 The Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA). April 9, 2015 Conclusion The Governorship and States House of Assembly elections have been scheduled for April 11, 2015. Party dynamics have shifted – taking attention off the central and focus on the state level. Quick grassroots sensitization have been done, mobilization agents such as traditional and religious institutions, business community, and market unions are expected to have been properly mobilized. States such as Rivers and Lagos will be keenly contested between the two dominant parties. Again, the CPPA public opinion poll conducted in January/February predicted a win for the APC and its governorship candidate by votes a little above 50%. 5