May 12, 2015 - The University of Tennessee | Agricultural

May 12, 2015 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected to slightly exceed the record level of 2014/15
as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected production. Corn production is
projected at 13.6 billion bushels, down 586 million from the record 2014/15 crop with a lower
forecast area and yield. The U.S. corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushels per acre, down 4.2
bushels from the 2014/15 record based on a weather adjusted yield trend that assumes normal
summer weather. The 2015 yield outlook is not raised, despite the rapid pace of late-April and
early-May planting, as more than 90 percent of the variability in the corn yield is determined by
July precipitation and temperatures in the Midwest, which are unknowable at this time. Corn
supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up just slightly from 2014/15.
U.S. corn use for 2015/16 is projected at a record 13.8 billion bushels, 1 percent higher than this
month’s revised projection for 2014/15. Feed and residual use for 2015/16 is projected 50
million bushels higher with animal numbers up from 2014/15. Corn used to produce ethanol in
2015/16 is expected to be unchanged as projected gasoline consumption during the 2015/16
marketing year is nearly identical to 2014/15. Corn use in other food, seed, and industrial
categories in 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than this month’s lower forecast for 2014/15.
Exports for 2015/16 are projected 75 million bushels higher on the year with the 2014/15
projection raised 25 million bushels this month. More competitive prices and growth in world
demand support gains in U.S. exports for 2015/16, but large foreign supplies limit growth in the
U.S. share of global trade. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels,
down 105 million from the 2014/15 projection. The season-average 2015/16 farm price is
projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint from this month’s lowered
outlook for 2014/15. Forward pricing the 2015 crop have been at substantially lower levels than
similar bids offered for the 2014 crop.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record, up from 2014/15 with the
increase mainly reflecting larger corn beginning stocks and production for China. Global corn
production for 2015/16 is projected at 38.967 billion bushels, down from the 2014/15 record,
largely reflecting the smaller projected U.S. crop. Declines in 2015/16 corn production are also
expected for EU, Brazil, Ukraine, and Mexico. In addition to China, where corn production is
projected up 484 million bushels, corn production is expected higher for South Africa, India,
Canada, Russia, and Argentina. Global corn consumption for 2015/16 is projected at a record
38.99 billion bushels, 512 million bushels higher than in 2014/15, with notable increases for
China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Canada, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Mexico. Corn
imports for 2015/16 are projected higher year-to-year for EU, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea,
and Mexico. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine, Brazil, and EU, but raised for South Africa,
Argentina, and India compared with 2014/15. Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are
projected at 7.555 billion bushels, down 24 million from 2014/15.
Market Reaction:
July 2015 corn futures closed up ½ cent at $3.61 with a trading range for the day of $3.57 ¼ to
$3.65 ¾. September 2015 corn futures closed up ½ cent at $3.66 with a trading range for the day
of $3.62 ½ to $3.70 ½.
Acreage and domestic ending stocks are lower for the upcoming marketing year, however
foreign production and ending stocks are estimated up. Yield was kept at the initial trend line
estimate even with the acknowledgement of the good planting progress this year. Focus will now
by on revised acreage and yield estimates, and as always weather.
2013/14
2015/16
USDA
Projected
May
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
89.2
78.6
79.5
81.4
84.0
87.4
87.5
83.1
81.7
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.1
158.1
171
166.8
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,851
Production
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,630
14
8
28
29
160
36
25
25
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,506
Acres Planted (Million
Acres)
Acres Harvested
(Million Acres)
U.S. Average Yield
(Bu/Acre)
2011/12 2012/13
Supply
2014/15
USDA
Estimate
Supply (Million Bushels)
Imports
Total Supply
Use (Million Bushels)
Feed and Residual
5,182
5,125
4,792
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,250
5,300
Ethanol
Food, Seed &
Industrial
Exports
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,200
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,347
1,360
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,543
730
1,917
1,825
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,054
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,622
13,760
U.S. Ending Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,851
1,746
Foreign Stocks
4,137
4,040
3,919
4,237
4,619
5,581
5,728
5,810
Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season
Price ($/Bu)
$4.06
$3.55
$5.18
$6.22
$6.89
$4.46
$3.55$3.75
$3.20$3.80
U.S. Stocks/Use
13.88%
13.07%
8.64%
7.89%
7.41%
9.16%
13.59%
12.69%
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2015/16 (May)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Feed
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
World
7,578
38,968
4,675
24,027
38,990
4,760
7,556
US
1,851
13,630
25
5,300
11,860
1,900
1,746
Foreign
5,728
25,338
4,650
18,727
27,130
2,860
5,810
Argentina
59
984
0
256
394
610
40
Brazil
680
2,953
31
1,968
2,323
866
475
South Africa
62
531
1
217
449
59
87
Egypt
77
236
315
476
571
0
57
EU
315
2,690
472
2,342
3,090
98
289
Japan
22
0
598
421
598
0
22
Mexico
104
925
405
675
1,337
20
78
Southeast Asia
189
1,144
366
1,169
1,488
25
187
South Korea
57
3
394
319
402
0
52
Canada
51
484
59
315
526
20
49
3,148
8,976
118
6,299
8,661
2
3,579
Ukraine
93
1,024
2
354
409
630
79
ROW
871
5,387
1,887
3,915
6,883
529
818
China
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) (2015/16-2014/15)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Feed
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
World
736
-248
130
516
511
-5
-22
US
619
-585
-
50
63
75
-105
Foreign
117
338
130
466
448
-80
83
4
20
-
16
24
20
-19
Brazil
-67
-118
-
79
79
-59
-205
South Africa
-22
87
-
12
8
31
24
Egypt
-18
2
20
24
24
-
-20
EU
46
-210
157
39
39
-20
-26
Japan
-
-
-8
-8
-8
-
-
Mexico
-2
-20
12
14
16
-
-26
Southeast Asia
36
45
-28
59
63
-6
-3
South Korea
-17
-
16
4
4
-
-5
Argentina
Canada
-12
31
-
20
22
-
-2
China
104
485
-
79
157
1
431
Ukraine
4
-96
-
-
-
-79
-14
ROW
60
112
-39
129
20
31
-54
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
Cotton
The U.S. cotton 2015/16 projections include marginally higher supply and disappearance
compared with 2014/15, resulting in ending stocks and prices on par with the preceding year.
The increase in beginning stocks of nearly 2.0 million bales is mostly offset by an 11-percent
decrease in production, due mainly to reduced planted area. Harvested acres and yields are based
on historical averages by region, with adjustments to the Southwest to reflect favorable moisture
conditions. Domestic mill use is projected higher while exports are at the prior year’s 10.7
million bales. The marketing year average price received by producers is projected to range from
50 to 70 cents per pound, with the midpoint of 60 cents, unchanged from the current season.
World 2015/16 cotton projections show a decline in global stocks for the first time since
2009/10. As with the U.S. estimates, higher beginning stocks compared with last season are
about offset by sharply lower world production, as most of the world’s cotton-producing
countries respond to lower prices. World consumption is raised 3.5 percent due mainly to
positive world economic growth and the lagged effect of falling cotton prices during 2014/15.
World trade is reduced marginally, as a sharp drop of 1.7 million bales in China’s imports is
mostly offset by increases in other countries. China’s lower production and imports, combined
with a consumption increase of nearly 3 percent, are projected to reduce ending stocks by about
3.0 million bales, accounting for more than three-fourths of the decline in world stocks. Despite
this reduction, world stocks of 106.3 million bales would still be the second highest on record.
For 2014/15, U.S. production is raised marginally, based on lower harvested area and higher
yields, reflecting the season final report. Slightly higher world ending stocks incorporate a
number of current and historical data adjustments, resulting in increases for Argentina, China,
and Benin, partially offset by decreases for India, Malaysia, and Brazil.
Market Reaction:
July 2015 cotton futures closed down 0.37 cents at 65.02 with a trading range for the day of
64.57 to 65.57. December 2015 cotton futures closed down 0.45 cents at 64.83 with a trading
range for the day of 64.18 to 65.45.
Estimated decreases in domestic and world production along with increased demand should
allow cotton markets to slowly move through the substantial stocks accumulated over the past 5years. Prices will not change overnight but some light may be emerging at the end of the tunnel.
Chinese policy will play an important role in how quickly cotton stocks are reduced.
Acres Planted
(Million Acres)
Acres Harvested
(Million Acres)
U.S. Average
Yield (lbs/acre)
2012/13
Supply
2013/14
2014/15
USDA
Estimate
2015/16
USDA
Projected
May
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
9.47
9.15
10.97
14.74
12.26
10.41
11.04
9.55
7.57
7.53
10.7
9.46
9.32
7.54
9.35
8.6
813
777
812
790
892
821
838
809
Supply (Million Bales)
Beg. Stocks
10.05
6.34
2.95
2.6
3.35
3.8
2.45
4.4
Production
12.82
12.19
18.1
15.57
17.31
12.91
16.32
14.5
0
0
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
22.87
18.53
21.06
18.19
20.67
16.72
18.78
18.91
3.65
3.8
Imports
Total Supply
Use (Million Bales)
Domestic
3.59
3.46
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.55
Exports
13.26
12.04
14.38
11.71
13.03
10.53
10.7
10.7
Total Use
U.S. Ending
Stocks
Foreign Stocks
16.85
15.5
18.28
15.01
16.53
14.08
14.35
14.5
6.34
2.95
2.6
3.35
3.8
2.45
4.4
4.4
54.47
43.71
46.84
69.97
86.17
99.21
105.85
101.89
Chinese Stocks
22.37
15.25
10.6
31.08
50.36
62.71
65.33
62.28
Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season
Price ($/lb)
U.S. Stocks/Use
Chinese
Stocks/Use
$0.48
$0.63
$0.82
$0.88
$0.725
$0.779
$0.60
$0.50$0.70
37.63%
19.03%
14.22%
22.32%
22.99%
17.40%
30.66%
30.34%
50.84%
30.50%
23.04%
81.79%
139.89%
181.77%
186.66%
173.00%
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2015/16 (May)
Country /
Region
World
US
Foreign
Central Asia
Afr. Fr. Zone
Australia
Brazil
India
Mexico
China
EU
Turkey
Pakistan
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Vietnam
ROW
Beginning
Stocks
Production Imports
110.25
111.25
33.65
4.4
14.5
0.01
105.85
96.75
33.64
2.85
6.11
0
1.94
4.47
0
1.27
2
0
6.97
6.75
0.15
14.32
29.5
0.9
0.74
1.05
1
65.33
27
6
0.67
1.46
0.85
1.63
2.8
3.6
2.55
10
1.7
0.66
0.02
3.5
0.21
0
1.53
1.18
0.13
4.6
0.75
0
4.2
4.78
5.46
5.61
Domestic
Use
115.29
3.8
111.49
2.56
0.14
0.04
4
25.75
1.9
36
0.88
6.3
11.1
3.4
1.5
4.7
4.1
Exports
33.66
10.7
22.96
3.6
4.42
2
3.6
5
0.15
0.05
1.43
0.23
0.5
0.01
0
0
0
Loss
-0.1
0.01
-0.11
0
0
-0.1
-0.15
0
0.03
0
0.03
0
0.03
0
0.03
0.01
0
Ending
Stocks
106.29
4.4
101.89
2.81
1.85
1.34
6.42
13.97
0.72
62.28
0.64
1.5
2.63
0.78
0.21
1.2
0.86
9.12
1.97
0.01
4.68
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) (2015/16-2014/15)
Country / Region
World
US
Foreign
Central Asia
Afr. Fr. Zone
Australia
Brazil
India
Mexico
China
EU
Turkey
Pakistan
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Vietnam
ROW
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Use
Exports
Loss
Ending
Stocks
7.82
1.95
5.87
0.16
0.56
-0.54
-0.7
2.7
0.16
2.62
0.14
0.27
0.07
0.06
-0.01
0.16
0.25
-0.03
-8.03
-1.82
-6.21
-0.05
-0.35
-0.2
-0.25
-0.5
-0.32
-3
-0.17
-0.4
-0.6
0.01
-0.01
-0.37
-0.09
-0.09
0.1
-0.2
0.17
-1.7
-0.02
0.05
0.9
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.21
3.84
0.15
3.69
0.15
0
0
0.1
1.25
0.05
1
0.01
0.1
0.35
0.1
0.05
0.25
0.25
0.03
-0.15
-0.15
0.01
0.3
-0.8
-0.4
1.1
-0.01
-0.03
-0.02
-0.05
-0.05
-0.01
-0.19
-0.02
-0.02
-
-3.96
-3.96
-0.04
-0.09
0.07
-0.55
-0.35
-0.02
-3.05
-0.03
-0.13
0.08
0.12
0.02
0.11
-0.1
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
Soybeans
U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected down 2.6 percent from 2014/15 mainly on lower
soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 3,850 million bushels, down 119 million
from the 2014 crop with record harvested area more than offset by lower yields. Harvested area
is projected at 83.7 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio and
planted area of 84.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at a trend level of 46.0 bushels
per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year’s record. Supplies are projected at 4,230 million
bushels, up 3.4 percent from 2014/15 with increased beginning stocks more than offsetting lower
production.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2015/16 is projected at 1.825 billion bushels, up 20 million from
2014/15. U.S. soybean meal use is projected to increase 3.2 percent in line with expected gains
in U.S. meat production. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected to decline
with increased exports from South America and India accounting for most of the gains in global
soybean meal trade. Soybean exports are projected at 1,775 million bushels, down 25 million
from 2014/15 despite record supplies. Competition from record supplies in South America is
expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of the 2015/16 marketing year. With larger
supplies and lower use, U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 500 million bushels, up
150 million from 2014/15. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 will decline to
$8.25 to $9.75 per bushel compared with $10.05 in 2014/15. Soybean meal prices are forecast at
$305 to $345 per short ton compared with $365 in 2014/15. Soybean oil prices are forecast at
29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound compared with 32.0 cents in 2014/15.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected slightly below 2014/15. Global soybean
production is projected at 11.659 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2014/15 with gains for
Brazil, India, Paraguay, and Ukraine offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and
China. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 2.094 billion bushels, down 55 million from
2014/15 with higher area but lower yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 3.564
billion bushels, up 92 million on higher area. China soybean production is projected at 423
million bushels, down 31 million as producers shift to more profitable crops. Total oilseed
supplies are up 2.8 percent from 2014/15. With crush projected to increase 2.3 percent, global
oilseed ending stocks up from the revised 2014/15 stock estimate.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015/16. Protein meal
consumption is projected to increase 3.0 percent in China, accounting for 24 percent of global
protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 4.483 billion bushels, up 3.8
percent from 2014/15. China soybean imports are projected at 2.848 billion bushels, up 147
million from the revised 2014/15 projection. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to
increase 3.6 percent in 2015/16 led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.
Futures Market Reaction:
July 2015 soybean futures closed down 18 ½ cents at $9.55 ½ with a trading range for the day of
$9.55 to $9.81 ½. November 2015 soybean futures closed down 18 ¾ cents at $9.30 ¾ with a
trading range for the day of $9.30 ½ to $9.55 ½.
Shortly after the report release harvest soybean futures dropped over 15 cents. Increased
domestic acreage, foreign soybean production, and greater domestic and global beginning stocks
for the 2015/16 marketing contributed to the bearish report response. Global and domestic
demand are projected to increase, which is positive, however due to the strength of the US dollar
much of this demand may be filled by South America.
Acres Planted
(Million Acres)
Acres Harvested
(Million Acres)
U.S. Average Yield
(Bu/Acre)
2012/13
Supply
2013/14
2014/15
USDA
Estimate
2015/16
USDA
Projected
May
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
84.6
74.7
76.4
76.6
73.8
76.1
76.3
83.1
83.7
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46
Supply (Million Bushels)
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
141
92
350
Production
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,850
13
15
14
16
41
72
30
30
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,230
Crushing
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,805
1,825
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,800
1,775
106
110
130
88
105
97
136
130
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,741
3,729
138
151
215
169
141
92
350
500
1,440
2,082
2,361
1,797
1,948
2,330
2,794
3,035
Imports
Use (Million Bushels)
Seed and Residual
Total Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
Foreign Stocks
Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Average Season
Price ($/Bu)
$9.97
$9.59
$11.30
$12.50
$14.40
$13.00
$10.05
$8.25-$9.75
U.S. Stocks/Use
4.53%
4.49%
6.55%
5.36%
4.53%
2.65%
9.36%
13.41%
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2015/16 (May)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Crush
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
3,143
11,659
4,396
9,782
11,180
4,482
3,535
349
3,850
30
1,825
1,954
1,775
500
Foreign
2,794
7,809
4,366
7,957
9,226
2,707
3,035
Argentina
1,174
2,094
0
1,562
1,749
312
1,207
916
3,564
20
1,415
1,533
1,828
1,139
3
323
0
151
154
169
4
China
528
423
2,848
2,833
3,279
9
510
EU
10
70
470
503
534
4
12
Japan
10
8
105
72
112
0
10
Mexico
7
13
149
160
161
0
7
146
1,313
773
1,261
1,703
385
146
World
US
Brazil
Paraguay
ROW
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) (2015/16-2014/15)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Crush
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
World
814
2
201
431
460
165
392
US
258
-119
-
20
13
-25
151
Foreign
556
121
201
412
447
190
242
Argentina
217
-55
-
107
110
18
33
Brazil
309
92
9
33
36
151
223
Paraguay
-
11
-
18
18
-7
-
China
-2
-31
147
119
130
2
-18
EU
-
8
2
6
6
1
3
Japan
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
Mexico
2
-
2
4
4
-
1
ROW
29
97
42
125
142
25
-
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
Wheat
U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 6 percent from 2014/15 on higher beginning
stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 2,087 million bushels, up 3 percent.
The all wheat yield is projected at 43.5 bushels per acre, down slightly from the previous year.
The survey-based forecast for 2015/16 all winter wheat production is up 7 percent with both
higher yields and harvested area. A decline in Soft Red Winter wheat harvested area is more than
offset by increased Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat harvested area. This year’s HRW yield is
above last year’s low level, but drought and winterkill have adversely affected the crop again.
White Winter wheat production is projected up 10 percent from last year mainly on higher
yields. Spring wheat production for 2015/16 is projected to decline 5 percent on an assumed
return to trend yields from last year’s near record level, more than offsetting a slight increase in
harvested area.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2015/16 is projected up 4 percent from the previous year on higher
exports, feed and residual use, and food use. The 2015/16 exports are projected at 925 million
bushels, up 65 million bushels from the previous year’s low level but still below the 5 yearaverage. Large supplies in several major competing countries will continue to limit U.S. exports.
Feed and residual use is projected up 20 million bushels on increased supplies. U.S. ending
stocks are projected to rise 84 million bushels to 793 million, the highest since the 2010/11 crop
year. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies are projected to rise fractionally from 2014/15 as increased beginning
stocks more than offset a slight decline in production from the previous year’s record. Total
wheat production is projected at 26.415 billion bushels, the second highest total on record.
Foreign production is down 338 million bushels with reductions for EU, India, Russia, and
Ukraine more than offsetting increases for China, Turkey, Morocco, Australia, Iran, and Syria.
Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than in 2014/15 with higher
food use more than offsetting a reduction in world wheat feeding. Global import demand for
2015/16 is lower with the largest reductions coming from Turkey, Iran, Morocco, and Syria all
on greatly improved crop prospects. Exports are lower for Canada, India, EU, Russia, and
Ukraine, but higher for Argentina and Australia. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected
at 7.47 billion bushels, up 88 million from 2014/15.
Futures Market Reaction:
July 2015 wheat futures closed down ½ cents at $4.80 ½ with a trading range for the day of
$4.78 to $4.91. September 2015 wheat futures closed at $4.87 ½ down ½ cent with a trading
range for the day of $4.85 ¼ to $4.97 ¼. The relative strength of the US dollar continues to
provide challenges for US wheat exports as prices in other key export regions are substantially
lower.
Acres Planted
(Million Acres)
Acres Harvested
(Million Acres)
U.S. Average Yield
(Bu/Acre)
2011/12 2012/13
Supply
2013/14
2014/15
USDA
Estimate
2015/16
USDA
Projected
May
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.3
56.2
56.8
55.4
55.7
49.9
47.6
45.7
48.8
45.3
46.4
48
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
46.2
47.1
43.7
43.5
Supply (Million Bushels)
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
743
718
590
709
Production
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,252
2,135
2,026
2,087
127
119
97
112
123
169
150
140
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,118
3,021
2,766
2,937
Food
927
919
926
941
951
955
960
967
Seed
78
69
71
76
73
77
77
72
Feed
255
150
132
162
364
223
160
180
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,051
1,012
1,176
860
925
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,400
2,431
2,057
2,144
Imports
Total Supply
U.S. Ending Stocks
Foreign Stocks
657
976
862
743
718
590
709
793
5,482
6,427
6,446
6,567
5,735
6,182
6,675
6,678
Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season
Price ($/Bu)
$6.78
$4.87
$5.70
$7.24
$7.77
$6.87
$6.00
$4.50$5.50
U.S. Stocks/Use
28.88%
48.36%
35.66%
33.30%
29.92%
24.27%
34.47%
36.99%
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2015/16 (May)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Feed
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
7,384
26,416
5,644
4,999
26,330
5,767
7,471
710
2,087
140
180
1,219
925
793
6,675
24,329
5,504
4,819
25,111
4,842
6,678
Argentina
117
441
1
4
226
265
68
Australia
226
955
6
143
269
680
237
Canada
195
1,066
17
165
356
753
168
EU
541
5,522
184
2,003
4,538
1,194
515
World
US
Foreign
Brazil
44
239
239
22
426
37
58
China
2,313
4,777
44
735
4,464
37
2,632
Sel. Mideast
520
657
773
167
1,360
30
561
N. Africa
435
732
886
98
1,614
20
419
Pakistan
118
919
4
37
904
37
100
Southeast Asia
128
0
683
123
648
33
132
India
606
3,307
18
176
3,476
18
437
Russia
280
1,966
13
459
1,304
735
219
Kazakhstan
102
459
15
73
250
220
106
Ukraine
183
808
2
129
430
386
177
ROW
868
2,481
2,620
485
4,845
397
849
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) (2015/16-2014/15)
Country /
Region
Beginning
Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic
Feed
Domestic
Total
Exports
Ending
Stocks
World
404
-276
-234
-195
42
-248
86
US
119
62
-10
20
22
65
83
Foreign
285
-338
-224
-215
19
-313
3
Argentina
25
-18
-
-7
-7
62
-49
Australia
-2
73
-
4
5
55
12
Canada
-186
-11
-1
-55
-60
-110
-27
EU
171
-226
-29
-
15
-73
-26
Brazil
-26
18
4
11
11
-29
15
China
98
141
-11
-110
-92
-
320
Sel. Mideast
79
17
-66
-18
16
-26
41
N. Africa
-62
111
-20
15
45
-
-17
Pakistan
39
-18
-24
-
4
11
-18
Southeast Asia
1
-
-4
-17
-5
-
3
India
-49
-215
17
11
28
-107
-169
Russia
89
-205
-
-18
-
-55
-61
Kazakhstan
29
-18
-7
-
-
-
4
Ukraine
48
-101
-
-18
-11
-37
-6
ROW
29
115
-82
-11
71
-4
-19
Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2015
2015 Estimated Returns – Non-irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE
reports. This May report is the first real glimpse of USDA’s projection for the 2015-16
marketing year. Future reports will be adjusted from today based more on crop conditions and
estimated planted acreage. The profitability outlook continues to look dim as prices are lower in
the last month. I would like to point out the cotton price of 70 cents that is being used in the
profitability outlook. I would guess that there has been very little cotton priced for 2015. The
price of 70 cents is made up of a cash price of 62 – 63 cents and gin rebates (seed & hauling) of
7-8 cents. The cash price of 62-63 cents is composed of a loan rate of 52 cents or 53 cents with a
slight premium and a 10 cent equity from the buyer. This 70 cent price has been used for the last
few months even while cotton prices have changed up and down. Basically, this is a result of the
way the cotton marketing loan program works. As long as cotton prices stay in a roughly 63-70
cent December futures range, cotton equities most likely will stay in that 10 cent range. My
observations and discussions with cotton buyers would indicate that if futures move above 70-71
cents, then the prices to the producers would start to move up penny for penny. At this point of
the season in Tennessee, crop selection will depend more on planting conditions as affected by
the weather more so than projected profitability. It should be noted the grain sorghum
profitability projections. Grain sorghum due to the positive basis at many elevators is projecting
to be the crop with the least loss as well as the lowest cost to produce. Producers considering
grain sorghum should discuss with their grain elevator the possibilities of delivery in the fall and
get some assurances that it will be deliverable coming out of the field (if on farm storage is not
available). Producers might also want to consider locking in at least the basis on grain sorghum.
Producers should look at these returns as what could be if no adjustments are made in their
operation and consider it a warning sign that adjustments will need to be made in 2015 to be
sustainable. These estimates do not consider any USDA or crop insurance payments from the
new farm bill. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist – Farm
Management for assistance in developing your own budget or farm financial plan. This table
below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and
locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Cotton prices include
revenue for cottonseed and hauling. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense
per acre is estimated as follows: Cotton - $ 120, Soybeans - $43, Corn - $161 (includes 170 units
of N), Milo - $103, and Wheat/Soybeans - $117. Cost of production will continue to be adjusted
as information becomes available. Weed control costs with resistant weeds have also been
difficult to estimate. These costs will vary greatly among producers and individual fields.
Production costs are estimates based on the 2015 University of Tennessee Crop Budgets with
adjustments made where needed. Please visit with your farm supplier on estimated cost in your
area. Producers with owned land and or cash rent can use Returns Over Variable as a guide in
decision making. Producers with share rent ground should use Returns Over Variable and Land
Costs as a guide with their appropriate share rent calculated. A land cost of 25% of revenue
minus 25% of crop insurance cost is used in the table as a guide or method of comparison and
should not be construed as the appropriate rent for a particular area. Producers who are not
making major equipment changes can use UT budgets and this table as a guide in developing
their own cropping decision budgets. If equipment changes are being made, then a whole farm
financial plan would be better suited as a decision aid.
2015 Estimated Returns – Non-irrigated
Cotton
Soybeans
Corn
Milo
Wheat/Soybeans
Yield
864 lbs.
42 bu.
132 bu.
85 bu.
64 bu./30 bu.
Price (as of 5/12/15)
$0.70 lb.
Revenue
$605
$390
$475
$343
Variable Expenses
$459
$285
$412
$234
$448
Returns Over Variable
$146
$105
$63
$109
$143
Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25%
crop insurance)
$149
$95
$115
$85
$144
Returns Over Variable and Land
Costs
-$3
$10
-$52
$24`
-$1
Fixed Costs
Depreciation & interest on
machinery
$142
$76
$73
$69
$107
Returns Over Specified Costs
-$145
-$66
-$125
-$45
-$108
Breakeven Price at Average Yield
and Specified Cost
$0.87
$10.85
$4.55
$4.57
$6.09/$10.36
$9.28 bu. $3.60 bu. $4.04 bu. $4.88 bu./$9.28 bu.
$591
Estimated Returns - Irrigated
As with dryland production, lower prices have squeezed profit margins in the irrigated crops
creating negative margins for all crops considering variable, land and fixed cost. Producers
should look at these returns as what could be if no adjustments are made in their operation and
consider it a warning sign that adjustments will need to be made in 2015 to be sustainable. The
table below is an estimate of returns for crops under irrigation. Since irrigated yields are not as of
yet kept separate in Tennessee, yields below are an estimate of irrigated yields. Irrigation fixed
costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and systems. These projections include
in variable expenses energy costs for irrigation of $21 per acre and $11 per acre of irrigation
repairs and maintenance. Fixed costs of $88 per acre for irrigation equipment are used. Please
contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist – Farm Management for assistance
in developing your own budget or farm financial plan. This table below should be used as a
guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will
vary among producers and production systems. Cotton prices include revenue for cottonseed and
hauling. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as
follows: Cotton - $ 125, Soybeans - $43, Corn - $206 (includes 225 units of N), Milo - $135, and
Wheat/Soybeans - $117. Cost of production will continue to be adjusted as information becomes
available. Weed control costs with resistant weeds have also been difficult to estimate. These
costs will vary greatly among producers and individual fields. Production costs are estimates
based on the 2015 University of Tennessee Crop Budgets with adjustments made where needed.
Please visit with your farm supplier on estimated cost in your area. Producers with owned land
and or cash rent can use Returns Over Variable and Fixed IR Costs as a guide in decision
making. Producers with share rent ground should use Returns Over Variable, Fixed IR Costs and
Land Costs as a guide with their appropriate share rent calculated. A land cost of 25% of revenue
minus 25% of crop insurance cost minus 25% of the irrigation equipment fixed cost is used in
the table as a guide or method of comparison and should not be construed as the appropriate rent
for a particular area. A management cost of $30 per acre is included in Fixed Costs –
management labor, depreciation & interest on machinery. This is an additional $15 above the
dryland crop management labor. Producers who are not making major equipment changes can
use UT budgets and this table as a guide in developing their own cropping decision budgets. If
equipment changes are being made, then a whole farm financial plan would be better suited as a
decision aid.
2015 Estimated Returns - Irrigation
Cotton
Soybeans
Corn
Milo
Wheat/Soybeans
Yield
1100 lbs.
60 bu.
190 bu.
130 bu.
64 bu./45 bu.
Price (as of 5/12/15)
$0.70 lb.
Revenue
$770
$557
$684
$525
$730
Variable Expenses( include energy
cost)
$502
$317
$504
$300
$481
Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre
$88
$88
$88
$88
$88
Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR
Costs
$180
$152
$92
$137
$161
Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25%
crop insurance-25% fixed irrigation
costs)
$168
$115
$146
$108
$156
Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed
Cost and Land Costs
$12
$37
-$53
$29
$5
Fixed Costs- management labor,
depreciation & interest on machinery
$151
$91
$86
$84
$122
Returns Over Specified Costs
-$139
-$54
-$139
-$55
-$117
Breakeven Price at Average Yield
and Specified Cost
$0.83
$10.18
$4.33
$4.46
$6.09/$10.36
$9.28 bu. $3.60 bu. $4.04 bu. $4.88 bu./$9.28 bu.